Ministers privately believe deal is possible, but point at which Syriza must either capitulate to Brussels or leave euro growing closerThere is still time for Greece to stitch together a deal with Brussels before it runs out of money, according to eurozone finance ministers speaking privately at last week’s International Monetary Fund spring conference. And the betting must be that crisis-plagued Athens will eventually find a way to retain its membership of the eurozone with a messy compromise.But the odds are getting slimmer with every passing week. On Friday, finance minister Yanis Varoufakis meets his counterparts in the Latvian capital Riga in what many analysts believe is the penultimate gathering to work out a deal before Athens’s coffers run dry. Continue reading...

Thinktank challenges Conservatives to explain where cuts would come from and insists SNP is not anti-austerity

Many EU member states and the US still fear the consequences of Greece leaving Europe. They need to get their voices heard in BerlinIn Berlin, views on Greece’s possible exit from the eurozone are shifting. “We have never been closer to a Grexit, and we are close,” said a senior official. The last time a Greek departure looked likely, in 2012, Angela Merkel worried that it would provoke panic in financial markets and pulled back from the brink. This time, Germany’s leaders think a Grexit would not destabilise the eurozone.Merkel’s officials say that she would be willing to compromise with Greece – if prime minister Alexis Tsipras, whose Syriza party was elected in January, came up with a serious reform programme. Germany wants his socialist government to commit to fighting corruption, improving tax collection, strengthening fiscal discipline, modernising labour markets and attacking vested interests. But three months after being elected, Tsipras seems unwilling or unable to do any of these things.German officials are remarkably sanguine about the impact of a Grexit on the rest of the eurozoneRelated: Greek eurozone exit edges closer as markets brace for Athens default Continue reading...

Consumers might be more cautious about spending windfall gains if the boost to their real incomes caused by the fall in inflation was thought to be temporary

Institute for Fiscal Studies clearly thinks the Conservatives are winging it but Labour have failed to cash in politically

Pre-election lift for chancellor as borrowing in 2014-15 falls to £87.3bn from £98.4bn last year

March data adds to concerns that economic growth slowed at the start of the yearUK retail sales showed a surprise fall last month, driven by a slump in petrol sales, adding to concerns that economic growth slowed at the start of the year.The first-quarter GDP numbers will be released on Tuesday, just over a week before the general election. Continue reading...

IFS assessment of parties’ economic policies will be pored over, but is unlikely to settle decisively the most contested issue in the campaignToday is St George’s Day, the annual celebration of England’s patron saint. Festivities are typically more muted than the national days allotted to the other home nations, but perhaps election fever could change this; there’s been enough Little Englandism around in the campaign coverage so far.

In just 20 minutes the New York Stock Exchange had witnessed it’s biggest stock plunge in decades, all traced to one gargantuan sell orderIt was 6 May 2010. In the UK it was general election day, in the US,Wall Street was gripped by mounting anxiety about the Greek debt crisis. The euro was falling against the dollar and the yen, but despite the turbulent start to the trading day, no one had expected the near 1,000-point dive in share prices.In a matter of minutes the Dow Jones index lost almost 9% of its value – in a sequences of events that quickly became known as “flash crash” . Hundreds of billions of dollars were wiped off the share prices of household name companies like Proctor & Gamble and General Electric. But the carnage , which took place at a speed never before witnessed, did not last long. The market rapidly regained its composure and eventually closed 3% lower.Related: 'Flash crash' case: UK trader to fight extradition to US Continue reading...

The sums at stake over currency issues are an order of magnitude larger than any potential gains from the rest of the Trans-Pacific PartnershipThe Obama administration is doing its full court press, pulling out all the stops to get Congress to approve the fast-track authority that is almost certainly necessary to get the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) through Congress. One of the biggest remaining stumbling blocks is that the deal will almost certainly not include provisions on currency. This means that parties to the agreement will still be able to depress the value of their currency against the dollar in order to gain a competitive advantage. This is a really big deal, which everyone thinking about the merits of the TPP should understand.

With inflation at 0% and polling day looming, the monetary policy committee’s last meeting was suitably enigmaticThe Bank of England went into self-imposed purdah when the election was called in late March, so the release of the minutes of the April meeting of the monetary policy committee provides the first hint of current thinking inside Threadneedle Street for some weeks.The message from the minutes is modestly hawkish. Sure, the vote to leave borrowing costs at 0.5% was unanimous. True, there is no immediate prospect of interest rates being raised after polling day and for some months thereafter.Related: Bank of England decision to keep 0.5% interest rate was unanimous Continue reading...

All members of monetary policy committee rejected rate rise after previously split votes while analysts say likely coalition negotiations will delay changesBank of England policymakers voted unanimously to leave borrowing costs on hold this month, but two members of the monetary policy committee saw the decision as “finely balanced”, shortening the odds on a rate rise in the coming months.Minutes published on Wednesday showed that two anti-inflation hawks – likely to be Martin Weale and Ian McCafferty, who voted for higher rates through late 2014 – were again contemplating a rise, despite suggestions that wages would not grow as fast this year as previously expected. Continue reading...

Lib Dems are accused of electoral desperation after announcing plans to increase salaries by at least inflation after five years of pay restraintsThe Liberal Democrats would end public sector pay cuts if they were returned to government, guaranteeing that salaries rise by at least inflation, Nick Clegg has announced.Public sector workers deserve to see the “light at the end of the tunnel” after five years of pay restraints, the deputy prime minister said, adding that they should feel the benefits of the economic recovery.

Unfortunately Tesco’s £6.38bn loss doesn’t mark the coming of a new world of independent, value-based shopping. It is still a £50bn business with the confidence of the CityTesco has made a loss of £6.38bn. That’s not much less than Nicaragua’s annual GDP. It’s more dosh than most sub-Saharan African countries can dream of. It is “the official end of the Tesco era,” according to the retail analyst, John Ibbotson. “With this huge loss, the decadent retail dynasty of Tesco has come to an end.”Decadent. That’s a big word, meaning a state of moral or cultural decline. To some of us, Tesco has always felt decadent, a rapacious giant that ruined high streets, hollowed out town centres and fuelled an economy built on extreme downward pressure on costs at one end in order to sell deceptively cheaply at the other.Related: Tesco reports record £6.4bn lossRelated: Tesco's troubles - it’s easy to keep a quiet store clean Continue reading...

Pyongyang has been denied entry to China’s new investment bank because of a refusal to share economic data. But with the World Bank unlikely to step in the regime may have to reconsider, says Andray AbrahamianChina has rejected a North Korean attempt to join its new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), according to a recent report, a decision which could have a significant effect on Pyongyang.

President has blunt words for fellow Democrats, especially Senator Elizabeth Warren, over claims that trade initiatives would hurt US jobsBarack Obama hit back at fellow Democrats who oppose his trade initiatives on Tuesday, saying they have their facts wrong on the eve of a key Senate vote.The president’s blunt words came as liberals, labor unions and others stepped up efforts to block his trade proposals, including the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which they say hurt US jobs.Related: Senate leaders inch closer to trade deal despite uproar from top Democrats Continue reading...

If you want to look in the eyes of those people pummelled by callous Tory policies, vote Labour – and be prepared to fightIt’s a moment many of us who oppose this government have had: something that powerfully crystallises just what is at stake. For me, it was on 17 July 2014. Sue Jones tweeted me: her disabled daughter had died; thus she had a spare room; thus she had to pay the bedroom tax. “It’s been an epic nightmare,” she wrote. “Shameful and cruel.”It had been “like dealing with robots”, she later told me. “No room for discussion. Their answer was, pay or move.” I felt fury – cold, seething fury – but I also had a moment of panic. A cruel, remorseless society was being built where predominantly poor people with a disability or a close family member who was disabled were being forced to cough up money they didn’t have or downsize to smaller properties that didn’t exist; where instead of building desperately needed council housing, we balanced the nation’s books on the backs of grieving, impoverished parents.Related: Labour commits to abolishing bedroom taxCampaigners can put pressure on the Labour leadership, and they can extract concessions that could transform lives Continue reading...

There’s no avoiding the facts: austerity has been gendered. In fact, 74% of the money cut by the coalition via changes to the benefits and tax system has come from women’s pocketsAs the coalition’s first term draws to a close, it seems a reasonable moment to ask: has the government’s programme of austerity disproportionately attacked women?It’s difficult to argue otherwise when in the past five years, studies have repeatedly shown that women have borne the burden of cuts to welfare. Last month the Fawcett Society reported that a staggering 74% of the money saved from benefit and tax changes since 2010 has come directly from women’s pockets. To put it another way: £22bn of the £26bn saved from welfare reform has been taken from women. Make no mistake – auesterity has been gendered. Continue reading...

As the Soviet Union dissipated its counter culture movement was replaced by a decade of free-market hedonism. The Calvert Journal talk us through the 1990s

All the latest economic and financial news, including the latest developments around Greece’s bailout talks

Forget the deficit: the real challenges we face – growth, housing and who exactly the government represents – won’t be mentioned on the campaign trailElections have but one iron law: listen for what the politicos are not saying. Follow it, and you hear a roaring silence at the centre of this campaign. For all that Dave and Ed have jousted with interviewers and made pledges on platforms, there are three big questions that neither would-be prime minister will talk about. Yet the questions are existential, and the answers to them will matter not merely for the next parliament, but far beyond.The three questions can be summed up as: How are we meant to live? Where are we meant to live? And who is meant to live here?Related: Labour's manifesto: back-to-basics branding that gets straight to the pointThere are now more vegans in Britain than members of the Conservative party Continue reading...

Beijing acts to tackle slowdown in world’s largest economy with biggest easing of policy by People’s Bank of China since 2008The biggest easing of policy by the People’s Bank of China since the depths of the global financial crisis in late 2008 provided a boost to stock markets in Europe and North America on Monday.Share prices rose as investors responded positively to signs that Beijing was acting to tackle the slowdown in the world’s biggest economy in recent months. Continue reading...

Prime minister Alexis Tsipras’s administration is forcing central government entities to transfer cash to the central bank to help keep the country afloatThe Greek government has issued a decree forcing public sector bodies to transfer idle cash reserves to the central bank in a sign of how severe the country’s cash crunch has become.The order came as the country’s finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, issued a stark warning to eurozone neighbours that they were playing with fire as Athens edges closer to a debt default.Related: Fears grow of Greek euro exit after IMF meetingRelated: Greek eurozone exit edges closer as markets brace for Athens default Continue reading...

Larry Elliot, the Guardian's economics editor sets out to do something no economist has yet managed; to figure out the maths of keeping it in the ground. What would happen to the global economy and would we face a global recession? Continue reading...

EY ITEM Club report says recovery in troubled eurozone and ultra-low inflation should provide ‘tailwinds’ for UK growthUltra-low inflation and an upturn for the eurozone will help the UK enjoy solid growth of 2.8% this year despite pre-election jitters, claims an EY ITEM Club report.Chief economic adviser Peter Spencer said the economy was taking the impending vote “in its stride”, with positive “tailwinds” likely to outweigh political uncertainty.Related: Tory long-term economic plan? Not even the propaganda is working Continue reading...

The gap between haves and have-nots was economic. Now it’s social, too, and a new apartheid stalks AmericaIn his book Happiness, former Oxford don Theodore Zeldin provided a brilliant description of life in the modern academy: “To remain sane, scholars had to become willing prisoners in a tiny cell, because here at least they could lay down the law about some tiny fragment of truth, like the habits of the earwig or the foreign policy of medieval Zanzibar. a few ambitious ones might grow dissatisfied with being master, or mistress, of only a small domain, and they might build up… grand theories… applicable to other domains; and their imperialism kept the academic world simmering in permanent nervous conflict.”Bob Putnam has certainly been the source of much nervous conflict among his scholarly peers. As the cover of his new book reminds us, he is author of Bowling Alone, sensible marketing, given that it was a social-science smash hit in 2000. Describing his own “grand theory” of a decline in “social capital” – the ties that bind communities together – Putnam escaped the narrow confines of his Harvard office to become a global public intellectual, presidential adviser and, for the New York Times, “poet laureate of civil society”.Related: The United States of fear: Alec Soth photographs the death of community in AmericaDifferences in social trust, family life, parenting and community vitality were minimal. Now the haves have it all Continue reading...

Just what is it about the UK’s experience on international aid that Larry Elliott thinks we should be “proud of” (A strange silence about a story to be proud of, 13 April)? Yes, more money is being spent – a 50% real increase over the course of this parliament – but has it made the world a better place? There is no convincing evidence. On the contrary, repeated reports paint a picture of DfID failures and an organisation in a heightened state of dysfunctionality.Related: Aid? What aid? Why the UK ignores its record on international development Continue reading...

As eurozone officials prepare for further talks on Greece, investors are sceptical that Athens can agree reforms that will unlock further bailout fundsEurozone officials meet for further crunch talks on Greece this week amid warnings that time is running out for the country to avoid defaulting on its debts and being jettisoned from the single-currency bloc.

People’s Bank of China acts to boost bank lending and combat slowing economic growth in world’s second-biggest economyChina’s central bank has cut the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves on Sunday, the second industry-wide cut in two months, adding more liquidity to the world’s second-biggest economy to help spur bank lending and combat slowing growth.The People’s Bank of China lowered the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for all banks by 100 basis points to 18.5%, effective from Monday, the central bank said in a statement on its website. Continue reading...

Voters tend to identify the failures of governments rather than the potential of the opposition – and the failures of austerity have been plain to seeIt has been my impression over the years that in the United Kingdom – still united at the time of writing – governments tend to lose elections rather than oppositions winning them. And if ever a government deserved to lose an election, it is this one.Memories of prewar unemployment and the social insensitivity of the Tories were enough to drive Churchill out in 1945. But in 1951, having achieved much in a period when austerity was necessary and not a political stratagem, the Attlee government was tired and it was “time for a change”.Austerity was meant to revive the animal spirits of business, but in fact did the reverse, as the Keynesians feared Continue reading...

Janet Yellen’s decision will have global consequences - and the end of ultra-low rates could mean meltdown for indebted countriesThe moment US central bank chief Janet Yellen presses the button will be a massive economic event. The prospect that higher interest rates in the world’s largest economy could come this year has already sent the dollar surging against the pound and euro. It has also fuelled fears of a meltdown in countries that have borrowed heavily in the US currency.Borrowing is inherently risky, all the more so when the interest rate can change at short notice. Higher costs for those that have borrowed in dollars could cripple companies in Brazil and Turkey that were enticed by cheap credit to fund a new factory or office building, or just to pay the wages.Turkey would be a risk too far when there are safe havens such as the US starting to offer a return on safe investments Continue reading...

UK chancellor has warned that one misstep in the Greek debt negotiations could return Europe to the ‘perilous state’ of 2011 and 2012

Intervention by main lender follows mounting fears of Greek exit from eurozone as UK chancellor George Osborne warns of global economic threatThe International Monetary Fund has urged EU negotiators to slim down their list of demands in debt talks with Greece amid fears that time is running out to reach a deal.The intervention by one of the country’s three main lenders came as the UK chancellor, George Osborne, said the impasse posed the biggest immediate threat to the global economy.“We are not talking about nothing. We are talking about things, but now we need to make progress”. Continue reading...

Economists say fall in unemployment is still not feeding through to consumers in the form of higher wagesBritain’s unemployment rate has dropped to its lowest level since 2008 but earnings growth has slowed, according to the final official labour market figures before the election.The Conservatives welcomed news of the drop in the jobless rate to 5.6% as well as the number of people in work hitting a record of more than 31m.The story of the UK labour market has long been a ‘jobs-rich’ but ‘pay-poor’ one. The latest numbers are no exception with good news for those looking for work, but less so for those already in employment.The British economy is one of the brighter spots in the world economy at the moment, and that’s confirmed by the IMF forecasts which show the UK as the second-fastest-growing economy in the G7 in the next two years, having been the fastest growing in 2014.Those forecasts have been more than reinforced by the employment figures we saw this morning, which show a record number of people in work. They show the claimant count at its lowest level since 1975 and they confirm that under this government 2m jobs have been created. So the British economy is a job-creating machine.The number of people in employment has risen to an all-time high, but the jobs boom and wider economic recovery are still not feeding through to households via higher wages.The lack of wage growth leaves the economy vulnerable to setbacks, especially as growth has once again become all-too dependent on consumer spending, which is in turn reliant on low inflation.With the jobless rate now only a fraction above its average of 5.3% seen in the decade before the recession, it is unsurprising that wage growth is gradually building.Related: Why the British jobs recovery has not brought bulging pay packetsIt’s encouraging to see the momentum of the recent jobs recovery continuing into 2015, and to see real wage growth strengthen after a seven year squeeze.But there is still a lot of ground to make up before we return to pre-crash pay levels. With inflation already at zero, this much-needed catch-up rests on far stronger nominal pay growth, underpinned by rising productivity.The challenge over the longer term is to improve education and develop skills. But I would prefer to have a productivity problem than an unemployment problem. Continue reading...

Christine Lagarde says coalition’s ‘smart fiscal policy’ is delivering results, despite IMF itself warning about budget deficit and household debt