It’s more than 40 years since UK inflation was so high. Voters will not forget, nor will they likely forgive, come the next electionIn no way can Jeremy Hunt’s autumn financial statement on Thursday be treated as a budget like any other. The economic stakes for the country and the political stakes for the Conservative government after the Liz Truss debacle are simply too high and too serious for that. Today, though, the stakes ratcheted up a notch, when the UK inflation rate rose unexpectedly steeply in the year to October to reach 11.1%.This is a big moment, resonant with grimmer 20th-century times. It comes in part as the latest in a series of severe economic shocks, following Brexit, Covid and the energy crisis, that appear to be driving Britain into a longer and deeper recession than its neighbours, and which are not yet over. But the inflation spike is also an event of which millions of voters, with mortgages, overdrafts and needs that they cannot cover, have no recent experience.Martin Kettle is a Guardian columnist Continue reading...

This live blog has now closed, you can find our latest political coverage hereHere is the broadcaster Piers Morgan’s take on the Rishi Sunak press conference.Q: How is the UK going to work with other countries to implement the proposals in the G20 communique? Continue reading...

Rishi Sunak vows to prioritise fight against the rising cost of living

The siren call of climate-burning expansion bewitches British politics. More of the same will emerge in the autumn statementIf things had been different, Rishi Sunak might have topped off his trip this week to the G20 summit in Bali with a quick dash back to Sharm el-Sheikh for the final hours of Cop27. But gone, sadly, are the days when getting a climate deal over the line was top priority for world leaders. Now they prefer to show up for the opening ceremony and then leave. It’s safer to grace the platform when there’s only hot air and the moral high ground at stake. And besides, Sunak has a diary clash tomorrow. He and Jeremy Hunt don’t have time to save the planet. They have to try to save the Tory party.Like a couple of cleaners wading around in the aftermath of a bloodbath, the prime minister and his chancellor have been warning everyone for weeks how messy things are going to be in their autumn statement. Cut spending. Raise taxes. Raid pensions. Everyone is going to have to make sacrifices. Nothing is off the table. Nothing, that is, except identifying (and punishing) the architects of the chaos.Tim Jackson is professor of sustainable development at the University of Surrey and director of the Centre for the Understanding of Sustainable Prosperity Continue reading...

Highest rate for 41 years leaves chancellor Jeremy Hunt with difficult budget choices

Policymakers are wrong to think rising joblessness and a recession are a price worth payingSharply raising central bank interest rates might prove catastrophic, rather than just inappropriate, as a solution to the current inflationary environment. That was the message lurking in the speech of one of the Bank of England’s monetary policymakers, Silvana Tenreyro, last week. It’s hard to disagree. While inflation is hurting the poor disproportionately because of their low incomes, rate hikes are a “cure” that is worse than the disease.The Bank regards growing unemployment as a necessary trade-off to prevent the acceleration of inflation. Its central projection for rising interest rates suggests almost 2.5 million people would be jobless in 2025 – with the worst-case scenarios seeing 3 million out of work. This would lead to widespread misery. Nobody wants to be jobless. Karl Marx’s reserve army of the unemployed is full of conscripts, not volunteers. Many are already deserting its ranks, preferring to leave the labour force entirely rather than be jobless. Continue reading...

The cuts will still be terrible, but not as terrible as they could have been. Rejoice! Celebrate St Jeremy, the patron saint of expectation managementFirst, roll the pitch. For the last few weeks Jeremy Hunt has been going out of his way to explain just how screwed the economy really is. That he is going to have to do some desperately unpleasant things to stabilise the situation. Things so unpleasant he doesn’t really want to mention them. But he’s such a decent guy – “fall into my eyes and surrender to my embrace” – that he’s going to tell us anyway. Because we deserve to know the truth.It’s not us. It’s not even him. It’s just life. The war. Things are just too, too bloody. Bloody bloody. So he’s going to ask us all to make sacrifices. Some may even have to make the ultimate sacrifice. Not all of us are going to get through this. The elderly may die of starvation in their unheated homes. Continue reading...

Parliamentary commissioner for standards hints Gavin Williamson is being investigated after claim he gave cheque to MP with financial problems. This live blog is now closedRishi Sunak has also said he hopes to have a meeting with the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, at the G20 summit. Asked if he would have a bilateral with Xi, Sunak told Sky News:I’m hopeful that I can. As I said, I think it’s important that we engage with people to try and tackle some of these shared challenges. And I’m here to talk to people, and that’s what I hope is possible.I’m very clear that China poses a systemic challenge to both our values and our interests, and it represents the single biggest straight threat to our economic security. And that’s why it’s right that we take the steps that are necessary to protect ourselves against that.I think our approach to China is one that is very similar to our allies, whether that’s America, Australia and Canada, all countries that I’m talking about exactly this issue with while we’re here at the G20 summit.And I think it’s an indisputable fact of the global economy that China is a big part of it. And if we want to solve big global challenges like public health, like Russia and Ukraine, fixing the global economy or indeed climate change, it’s important to have a dialogue and to engage with China as part of solving those challenges. Continue reading...

October’s producer price index figures fuel hopes that US inflation is easing, as company insolvencies in England and Wales jumpMinister for Employment, Guy Opperman MP, says:“The UK labour market has remained resilient in the face of global challenges, with a low unemployment rate and a record number of people on payrolls.“Whilst these figures are encouraging, we recognise that families are facing rising prices and employers need support to fill vacancies with a reliable workforce. Our focus is on making sure people looking for work, and those already in work, have the opportunity to boost their skills and keep more of what they earn – helped by our extensive network of Jobcentres.In real terms, total pay fell by 2.6% and regular pay fell by 2.7%. This remains one of the largest falls in pay since 2001.Although there was growth in average pay this growth is totally eclipsed by the inflation we are experiencing, meaning that people’s pay packets simply will not stretch so far. Continue reading...

Communique unlikely to stretch beyond usual platitudes despite the need for a global plan for recoveryThe Cambodian prime minister, Hun Sen, was struck down by Covid, the Argentinian prime minister, Alberto Fernández, had gastroenteritis and the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, either did or did not have chest pains that sent him to hospital. Given that Indonesia’s G20 slogan plastered all around Bali says: “Recover Together, Recover Stronger”, it was not an auspicious performance by the world’s leaders.Unfortunately, there is precious little sign of recovery at the G20, either at a political or economic level. Continue reading...

Prime minister also urges City to curtail bonuses and says he is keen to reduce reliance on food banks

Companies hit by increasing energy prices, higher inflation, labour shortages and interest rate risesThe number of companies collapsing into insolvency in England and Wales has jumped by nearly 40% in a year, as soaring energy prices, high inflation and rising interest rates take their toll.There were 1,948 company insolvencies in England and Wales last month, the Insolvency Service reported, up 16% from September’s total of 1,684. Continue reading...

Workforce has shrunk amid rising long-term sickness and it appears unemployment is growing again

Wage growth continues to lag behind rising inflation as unemployment rate rises slightly

The chancellor insists Britain has to ‘live within its means’ – but many economists say painful cuts are neither inevitable nor proven to workJeremy Hunt is preparing to wield the axe over public spending this week and raise taxes for everybody in an autumn statement that will be long on pain and short on good news. After Liz Truss’s short and catastrophic premiership, the “abacus economics” she despised is back in the ascendancy under Rishi Sunak.The message from the government is that Britain has to live within its means, which Hunt and Sunak say requires action to reduce government borrowing and ensure that the national debt starts to fall as a share of national income. Continue reading...

As Rishi Sunak and Joe Biden meet world leaders at the G20, they should be pushing for greater cooperation to deal with growing threats

A steady stream of bad economic news has filtered into Britain’s property market, prompting fears that prices could tumble. But how worried should people be? Rupert Jones reportsEver since Margaret Thatcher’s ‘right to buy’ revolution in the 1980s, the UK housing market has been an obsession for millions of people. For many, buying a home has been like a lottery win, with properties rising in value year after year, often by far more than the average wage. It has spawned an industry of lifestyle programmes pushing people to get on to the property ladder and revamp their homes.Recently, however, things have started to go sour. Prices in October fell by 0.9% month on month, according to the mortgage lender Nationwide, in the market’s first decline in 15 months. One of the reasons was a slowdown in demand for properties as a result of spiralling borrowing costs, with a spate of interest rate rises leading to soaring monthly payments. Continue reading...

Tax Justice Network says countries lose $89bn a year by allowing anonymity over use of tax havensGovernments around the world could reap almost $90bn a year extra in tax if they made public their data on the extent to which multinational companies use tax havens, an advocacy group reports.The Tax Justice Network said states were depriving themselves of $89bn (£75bn) a year by allowing some of the world’s biggest companies anonymity over the way they conduct their tax affairs. Continue reading...

Jeremy Hunt has chance to make a big difference for small businesses in his autumn statementThe buildup to Jeremy Hunt’s autumn statement on Thursday has inevitably been dominated by the big stuff: tax rises for individuals and companies; departmental spending cuts; and what, if anything, will constitute a plan for growth now that Liz Truss’s brief flirtation with deregulation and investment zones has been abandoned. But there is a smaller measure that should be getting more attention: business rates.The CBI, the business lobby group, called action on that front its “main and modest fiscal ask” and was right to do so, because next spring’s “cliff edge”, in the usual lingo, will look daunting from the point of view of many small businesses on high streets. Continue reading...

Former US vice-president says bank should refocus its spending and end its role in ‘fossil fuel colonialism’Fundamental reform of the World Bank could be completed within a year, to refocus its spending on the climate crisis and end its contribution to “fossil fuel colonialism”, according to the former US vice-president Al Gore.“I don’t know why it need take longer than a year,” said Gore, a longtime campaigner on the climate crisis since leaving politics, in an interview with the Guardian at the Cop27 UN climate summit. “We have an emergency on our hands.” Continue reading...

Bank of England interest rate rises mean higher costs for borrowers but better returns for saversThe average easy-access savings rate has improved to its best level in more than a decade, according to Moneyfacts.Savers can now typically receive 1.16% in annual interest on an easy-access account on the market, the website said. Continue reading...

Former Bank of England policymaker says Brexit has caused permanent damage to the UK economyElsewhere in UK retail, Frasers Group is reportedly in late-stage talks to seal a deal for Savile Row tailor Gieves & Hawkes. Sky News has reported that Mike Ashley’s empire is close to sealing the purchase of the 251-year-old Savile Row business after its Hong Kong-based owner fell into administrationBased at 1 Savile Row, the brand has been part of Trinity Group - which is in turn owned by the collapsed Shandong Ruyi Technology Group - since 2012.“While the potential job losses are regrettable, it seems that Joules has taken the precautionary steps needed to limit further fallout in terms of further job losses and an erosion in their brand equity.“Given the surprising acquisitions and strategic partnerships that have been made in the retail space recently, there should be at least some optimism that another industry player will come to the rescue of a brand that still holds resonance with consumers. Continue reading...

Former Bank of England policymaker Michael Saunders says leaving EU has ‘permanently damaged’ economyBrexit is the ultimate reason why the UK now faces a fresh round of austerity, a former interest rate-setter at the Bank of England has said.“The UK economy as a whole has been permanently damaged by Brexit,” Michael Saunders, who was an external member of the central bank’s monetary policy committee, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. Continue reading...

Many investors believe taking money from the rich and giving it to the poor would be ‘fine’ with the bond marketAs the charts climbed higher on their data terminals, bond market investors watching the shift felt increasingly sick.The impact of that fateful day in September when Trussonomics was launched on an unsuspecting public with the mini-budget was huge, and it got worse second-by-second, as the panic spread. It is a day that will remain etched in the memories of many for years to come. Continue reading...

Lobby group says failure to tackle workforce shortages would be highly damaging for the economyBritain’s foremost business lobby group has urged Jeremy Hunt to use this week’s autumn statement to shake up immigration rules to support companies struggling with chronic staff shortages and a looming recession.The head of the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) said urgent action was required from the chancellor on Thursday to bolster the economy, including “tough political choices” to allow more overseas workers in Britain as employers struggle with a desperate lack of staff. Continue reading...

Hike in mortgage costs after mini-budget cuts 20% off buyer demand in OctoberFirst-time buyers pulled back most from purchasing a home after the increase in mortgage costs following the mini-budget, according to a report showing a widespread slowdown in the property market.Figures from the property platform Rightmove show buyer demand fell 20% in October compared with a year ago, as house-hunters put their property searches on hold in response to soaring borrowing costs and rising economic uncertainty. Continue reading...

Spending cuts and tax rises will deepen the recession so the pain will be deferred until 2025 and a likely Starmer government

Successful bids for levelling up money will be revealed alongside the autumn statement on Thursday, but scepticism about the policy is high in the northern townBehind its imposing town hall lies a 19th-century stone building that many in Barnsley believe points the way to a brighter future.Soon, it could be home for a youth choir that has beaten all the odds to become one of the best in the world. More broadly, the hope is that by delivering a permanent base for its 560 young performers it will serve as a catalyst for greater ambitions and inject confidence in a town struggling to transcend its post-industrial malaise. A third of Barnsley’s children live in poverty. Continue reading...

The succession of PMs have all spoken out on who or what has caused the state of UK finances. They’re all partly right, but conveniently miss out one or two other key reasonsCovid-19 ripped a £400bn hole in the government’s finances. The money was used largely to support the economy and it succeeded in allowing industries and workers to bounce back once restrictions were lifted. Continue reading...

A collapse in credibility under the former Tory PM is being followed by a return to ‘sado-monetarism’ under the new oneOne of the unfortunate consequences of the 44-day Truss/Kwarteng economic experiment is that there is now almost certainly going to be an overreaction. It was fit and just that the free-marketeers were brought down by the markets they believed in. The irony of it! But the danger now, with all this talk about the black hole in the nation’s finances, is that in its efforts to restore “credibility” the Sunak/Hunt economic experiment could well be taking risks with the country’s social fabric, while not necessarily retaining credibility in the markets.To put it bluntly: when the central banks of the Group of Seven are on the warpath, deliberately fomenting recessionary forces to fight inflation, there is a danger of a recurrence of what, in the early 1980s, I termed “sado-monetarism” – as if the sado-Brexiters were not enough. Continue reading...

Tackling inflation and restoring credibility are top of the chancellor’s to-do list in the autumn statement. Business pleas may go unheededLooming recession, soaring inflation, worker shortages and evaporating business confidence provide a fairly sobering backdrop for Jeremy Hunt’s autumn statement this week.As the government goes back to the drawing board after Liz Truss’s botched mini-budget, most of the problems that Britain’s economy faced under her leadership are either still a big worry for company bosses or have been amplified. Continue reading...

Labour says preventing companies stashing profits overseas would raise as much as £7bn a yearRishi Sunak is being urged to act “immediately” to crack down on UK-based firms stashing their profits in overseas tax havens, in a move Labour claims would raise as much as £7bn a year.Sir Keir Starmer’s party wants the prime minister to implement a “multinational top-up tax” in line with reforms agreed by the G20 in 2021. Continue reading...

The republic’s welcoming corporate tax policy has been a success, but it depends heavily on just a few big namesIn 1958, a young Irish civil servant named Kenneth Whitaker surprised his political masters in Dublin with a 250-page document on which he and some of his colleagues in the department of finance had been covertly working for months. Its title, Economic Development, may have been deceptively bland, but its message was blindingly clear. The country was an economic mess and unless radical action was taken its very existence as a viable state was in doubt.As the writer Fintan O’Toole put it in his memoir, 1950s Ireland was basically “a vast cattle ranch with a few cities and a lot of small provincial towns attached”. This ranch had two main exports: live cattle and beef products, most of them destined for the British market, and young people, emigrating in their thousands every year because there were no livelihoods, or any prospect of fulfilling lives, at home. Continue reading...

Next week’s autumn statement will show if Jeremy Hunt has learned anything from George Osborne’s and Kwasi Kwarteng’s failuresA fool repeats his folly, the Old Testament suggests, in the same way that a dog returns to its own vomit. Kwasi Kwarteng seems determined to prove that this is true. On Friday he made two false claims about his short tenure at the Treasury. The first is that his 23 September mini-budget was not a cause of the government’s current financial woes. The second is that Liz Truss forced the pace on economic policy too hard during her brief period as prime minister, while Mr Kwarteng, even more briefly her chancellor, argued for a slower approach.Neither claim stands up. No one pretends that the mini-budget is uniquely responsible for the high levels of UK public debt that are now being invoked as the justification for next week’s looming autumn statement. There are many other large causes, some of them global, like Covid and energy costs, and others closer to home, including Brexit. The mini-budget, though, made things even worse. It triggered a run on the pound, a lurch in gilts, a Bank of England buy-up emergency and a tightening of the mortgage market. It says a lot about Mr Kwarteng and Ms Truss’s doctrinaire wing of the Conservative party that, even now, they remain in denial about something the voters understand more clearly from their own experience than these discredited ministers ever did. Continue reading...

Pioneering ecological economist who foresaw the catastrophic effects of unlimited economic growthIn the 1960s, when economic growth became the single most important objective of government economic policy, the economist Herman Daly, who has died aged 84, saw a different future. He called for a change in thinking to make our economies more consistent with the finite energy and resource limits of the Earth.Sixty years ago it was considered heresy to question economic growth, and Herman faced much opposition, but his ideas have become a foundation for many new approaches, such as doughnut economics and wellbeing economics, by placing the economy within the Earth’s systems and in society. Continue reading...

One backer of ex-PM says ‘that wasn’t what was going on’, as Jeremy Hunt also appears to dispute version of eventsKwasi Kwarteng’s claims that he tried to get Liz Truss to slow down her financial plans have been challenged by her allies.In his first interview since he was sacked as chancellor by Truss, Kwarteng said he had told the then prime minister to be more cautious with their £45bn programme of tax cuts. Continue reading...

Cryptocurrency exchange FTX starts bankruptcy proceedings in US and Sam Bankman-Fried is resigning as chief executive officer

This live blog has now closed, you can find our latest political coverage hereMichael Gove, the levelling up secretary, is holding a press conference in Blackpool with Micheál Martin, the taoiseach (Irish PM), following the conclusion of the British-Irish Council summit.Asked whether the UK government would pause the progression of the Northern Ireland protocol bill, which is currently in the House of Lords (see 12.39pm), Gove said that was not a decision for him. This is from UTV’s Tracey Magee.It is really disgraceful that Kwasi Kwarteng has the cheek to do this interview. He crashed the economy with his mini-budget just a few weeks ago. It’s caused untold damage to people. Anyone coming off a mortgage deal will be blaming the Conservatives, including Kwasi Kwarteng, for those huge increases, up to £500 a month more in interest payments because of the decisions by Conservative chancellors over the last few months, including Kwasi Kwarteng. Continue reading...

Founder Sam Bankman-Fried resigns as CEO and tells of shock ‘to see things unravel the way they did’

GDP fall of 0.2% for three months to September gives bleak picture in run-up to autumn statement

Amid higher costs and worker shortages, British Chambers of Commerce says Brexit is another factor

The decay has set in across social classes, and more deeply than when the country last turned itself around in the 90sDecline is a spectre that has haunted this country for at least a hundred years. Through the retreat from empire, postwar recessions and growth panics, and our inward turn since Brexit, the worry that Britain is falling behind other countries – or deteriorating in absolute terms – has repeatedly gripped journalists, politicians and the public.We are in one of those periods now. Seven out of 10 people in a recent Ipsos Mori poll agreed that the country was in decline. Commentators in other countries look on with a mixture of pity and schadenfreude.Andy Beckett is a Guardian columnist Continue reading...

Pound surges and stock markets rebound as US consumer price index drops from 8.2% to 7.7% in OctoberStock markets rebounded and the pound surged on Thursday after the US reported a lower than expected inflation rate for October, fuelling hopes that the cost of living crisis may have peaked.Shares on the London exchange jumped after US inflation dropped from 8.2% in September to 7.7% in October, with the FTSE 100 rising 1% and the FTSE 250 gaining 3.9%. Continue reading...

Readers respond to an article by Larry Elliott in which he said that Brexit remains an opportunity to transform an underperforming British economyI am glad that Larry Elliott has given us his latest take on Brexit, but his contention that there is an absence of evidence that Brexit has done much harm has holes in it (Brexit isn’t to blame for our current problems; it is still an opportunity, 6 November). Most fundamentally, the pound was trading at $1.49 on the day of the referendum. Two days later, it was $1.36. Now it is $1.15. Prior to the referendum result, £1 equalled €1.31. Now it is €1.15. Imports are more expensive and exports are not helped because manufacturing is such a small proportion of our economy, and uses a lot of imported materials anyway.He claims that Britain attracts more foreign direct investment than any other European country. Perhaps a chunk of this is buying up British assets at bargain basement prices? He does not mention the businesses relocating to mainland Europe to survive, undoubtedly reducing the British economy.

RSA chief executive says century of progress now going into reverse after years of underinvestmentThe worsening health of the British people is holding back economic growth for the first time since the Industrial Revolution after years of underinvestment in services, Andy Haldane has warned.The chief executive of the Royal Society of Arts (RSA) said more than a century of progress on health and wellbeing was going into reverse, with a direct impact on the economy and the cost of living emergency. Continue reading...

Brexit didn’t change the party: austerity was as heartless under Cameron and Osborne as it is under SunakWhat kind of government is this? You can almost see the puzzlement on pundits’ faces as they try to work it out. Is it the technocratic dictatorship of Jeremy Hunt, or the banal nastiness of pound-shop mafioso Gavin Williamson? Is it Rishi Sunak bro-hugging Emmanuel Macron, or Suella Braverman banging up “invaders”? Is this the administration of smooth-cheeked, spreadsheet-speaking sensibles they long for at the Times, or the gleeful barbarians the Daily Mail ordered?It depends on how you look at the shape British politics has taken since 2010. Of the party that has run the country since then, a simple story is usually told. It goes thus: from 2010 to 2016, the Conservatives were a well-spoken and professionally run centrists’ club. True, there was some unpleasantness over spending cuts – but don’t forget gay marriage, the huskies and hoodies and London’s Olympics!Aditya Chakrabortty is a Guardian columnist Continue reading...

Move to lower threshold from £150,000 would be in line with Hunt’s vow that tax rises should hit ‘broadest shoulders’Jeremy Hunt is expected to increase the number of people paying the highest rate of tax by lowering the threshold from £150,000, according to Treasury sources.The move to increase the number of taxpayers paying the 45p rate of tax is a handbrake turn from Liz Truss’s government, which proposed to abolish the rate altogether. Continue reading...

Young people no longer able to rely on hard work to improve their living standards as they age, says IFSWorking for a living has become a harder way to grow rich in modern Britain amid rising wealth inequality over the past decade, according to research published today that warns of a breakdown in social mobility as inheritances grow in importance.The Institute for Fiscal Studies said wealth had grown rapidly compared with earnings from work since the 2008 financial crisis, driven by a surge in house prices and financial assets – such as stocks and shares – at a time of flatlining progress for average wages. Continue reading...

As Cop27 discusses climate finance, report says continent’s GDP growth could fall by two-thirds this century

If climate catastrophe is to be avoided, the governments and institutions of the rich west will have to alter their prioritiesMaking a transition away from fossil fuels and towards low-carbon energy is the only way to keep our planet safe and habitable for future generations. That transition has thankfully begun, but it has a vast distance to go. And the kinds of changes that are needed cost money. Development of new technology has always required investment. This applies to the generation of renewable energy, and to the myriad lifestyle changes that follow from the shift away from coal, oil and gas. Electric cars and other transport are one example. Packaging to replace plastic (which is derived from oil) is another. Resources are also required to protect societies from the harms caused by the global heating that has already happened, and to help them adjust to altered conditions.A new report presented at the Cop27 UN climate summit says that about $2tn (£1.75tn) a year will be needed by 2030 if developing countries are to make the necessary changes. One of the authors, Nicholas Stern, pointed to a crucial role for the World Bank as well as western governments in redirecting finance and reducing the cost of capital for investors (banks typically charge higher interest on investments in poor countries, due to perceived risks). Continue reading...