Economics | The Guardian

The chancellor has announced mini-budget repair measures – here are the main points, with political analysis

UK chancellor brings forward major announcement of mini-budget repair measures as Liz Truss fights for survival

Shelters are overwhelmed as pet owners grappling with inflation surrender their dogs, cats – and guinea pigsThe great pet adoption boom peaked in April and May 2020 with nearly one in five US households, or 23 million, giving animals new homes during the pandemic, according to the ASPCA. But as our return to a sense of normalcy has coincided with historic inflation rates, pet owners are forced to re-evaluate their priorities.Pet food costs have outpaced general inflation by 0.6% (9.1% versus 8.5% in total Consumer Price Index last month) and a single surprise veterinary bill can launch 42% of pet owners into debt, according to a recent Forbes study. As a result, shelters around the US are seeing an increase in owner surrenders and a steep decline in adoptions with no sign of improving. Continue reading...

Bank tips economy to shrink 1% in downgraded forecast, but also predicts lower inflation and interest ratesThe UK is likely to enter a deeper recession than previously expected next year, while interest rates and inflation will be lower than forecast, according to revised analysis from Goldman Sachs.The US investment bank downgraded its outlook for Britain, in analysis released on Sunday, forecasting the UK economy would shrink by 1% next year, down from its previous estimate for a 0.4% contraction. Continue reading...

Analysts expect more financial jitters after Bank of England ends intervention, while new chancellor tries to project calmCity investors are bracing for a week of renewed choppy trading in UK financial markets as Liz Truss’s government attempts to regain control and the Bank of England steps back from its emergency intervention.Before markets reopen for the first time since the Bank halted its multibillion-pound support programme on Friday, analysts said renewed turbulence on Monday despite Kwasi Kwarteng’s sacking as chancellor could not be ruled out. Continue reading...

Former Tory minister to call for Truss to go in interview after new chancellor warns of difficult spending decisions. This live blog is now closedSome “very difficult” decisions are going to have to be taken on tax and spending, which is not going to increase as much as people hopes, Jeremy Hunt has said this morningIn an interview for Laura Kuenssberg’s show on BBC 1, the new chancellor reiterated a warning that all government departments would be asked “to find efficiencies.” Continue reading...

Jeremy Hunt is trying to reassure hedge funds but UK’s reputation for political stability has been shreddedThe markets have tasted blood and are eager for more. Liz Truss has sacked Kwasi Kwarteng as chancellor and ditched another piece of the mini-budget announced less than a month ago, but she now faces another week in which financial turmoil and political intrigue create a toxic mix.Monday will be a crucial day for the prime minister. If sterling heads towards parity with the dollar and rising bond yields put upward pressure on mortgage rates, Truss may soon be handing in her resignation to King Charles. Continue reading...

Experts say raising rates ‘isn’t working’ and that the real culprits are corporate pricing, energy costs and supply chainA fresh round of US inflation data released last week showed persistently high prices, raising more questions about whether the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes are missing what many economists contend are the real inflationary culprits: corporate pricing, energy costs and supply chain disruptions.The news is further stirring fears of unnecessary economic pain should the Fed push America into recession. Continue reading...

There’s relief among Conservative MPs as the new chancellor seeks to bring stability back to governmentSenior Conservatives on Saturday welcomed Jeremy Hunt’s arrival as chancellor, saying he had effectively “taken over” running the government from Liz Truss after he unceremoniously dumped her tax-cutting agenda on his first day in office.One senior Conservative MP said it was a huge relief to have someone in charge at the Treasury who was able to admit to recent mistakes and had made it his mission to restore the government’s credibility with the markets. “It is just so good to have a grownup in the room, someone who commands respect and who has experience after this period of utter madness.” Continue reading...

It was no good for the PM and Kwasi Kwarteng to dismiss U-turns on their growth plan as ‘distractions’, the damage is doneFirst the dynamic duo, Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng, were going to “hit the ground running”; then they claimed they hadn’t prepared the ground they were going to hit. What their marriage of culpable ignorance and arrogance in fact achieved was something greeted with astonishment not only by them, but worldwide: they hit the pound running.The Conservative party took a long time to recover from Black Wednesday, 16 September 1992, when the pound was ejected humiliatingly from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism – the ERM – membership of which had become the fulcrum of their economic policy. Continue reading...

New chancellor signalled Liz Truss’s economic plan largely defunct and is expected to delay 1p cut in income taxJeremy Hunt said that Liz Truss’s mini-budget went “too far, too fast” as the new chancellor effectively signalled the demise of the prime minister’s economic vision.Political and economic circles spent Saturday sizing up Hunt after he used a series of broadcast interviews in the morning to suggest Truss’s immediate economic plan is now largely defunct. Continue reading...

As the row between the US president and the Gulf kingdom over increasing oil production escalates, the UK arms industry giant may have to choose which of its two lucrative customers to side withThe UK has long had an awkward relationship with Saudi Arabia, but that unholy alliance now faces a stern test. After Joe Biden reacted angrily to the Opec+ decision to cut oil production, workers at BAE Systems’ fighter jet factory at Warton, on the banks of the Ribble in Lancashire, will have an eye on the fallout from the oil cartel’s decision.The US president had hoped to persuade the world’s largest oil producer to ramp up production in order to lower oil prices, which have fed into surging inflation and fears over a global recession. Biden had been cultivating relations with Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Mohammed bin Salman, illustrated by a fist bump in Jeddah in July. But despite all that, Prince Mohammed defied Biden, with Opec+ opting for a cut in output, a move that was seen as siding with fellow cartel member Russia, helping prop up its arms revenues. Continue reading...

The chancellor sparked alarm among trade union leaders by promising ‘very difficult decisions’ for government budgetsHealth chiefs, public sector unions and teaching leaders expressed horror on Saturday after the new chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, appeared to usher in a fresh era of austerity, and the threat of more misery for cash-strapped hospitals and schools.In his first interviews since dramatically replacing Kwasi Kwarteng on Friday, Hunt provoked widespread alarm by promising “very difficult decisions” for government budgets. Continue reading...

Tax-cut U-turns won’t be enough to balance the books, so the new chancellor will look at cutting public service budgets. But there is an alternativeJeremy Hunt is unlikely to give his name to a new economic model or ground-breaking method of boosting growth. Trussonomics is dead and all the new chancellor can do in the midst of the current crisis, and given the constraints he has immediately placed upon himself, is replace it with an orthodox mix of public spending cuts and tax rises to win favour with the financial markets.In his first interview as chancellor, Hunt was sombre about the task facing him. Continue reading...

Countries have responded to a series of shocks by looking out for themselves, which could increase volatility and uncertaintyThe message from last week’s annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund was clear. War, pandemic and rampant inflation have put the global economy under severe strain. The mood was edgy, often fractious.The Americans had a go at Saudi Arabia for orchestrating production curbs designed to push up the cost of oil. The Indians were unhappy with the aggressive increases in US interest rates, which they saw as exporting America’s problems to the rest of the world. Continue reading...

Uncertainty is everywhere from financial markets and high street to households. We answer key questions that thousands are asking on housing, pensions and investmentsWhat does the economic uncertainty mean for house prices?

Analysis by unions suggests firms can afford to pay workers more, as handouts have soared £440bn above inflation since 2008Payouts to shareholders have increased three times faster than workers’ wages since the 2008 financial crash, according to a new analysis that unions claim shows companies can afford to pay higher salaries.Shareholder handouts, through both dividends and companies buying back their own shares, have soared £440bn above inflation since 2008. Meanwhile, wages have fallen, growing £510bn less than inflation. The gap has widened since the financial crash. Before the crisis, dividends grew at double the rate of wages. Continue reading...

Former occupant of No 11 Downing Street finally sacked after financial institution chief’s remarks in Washington

Increase adds up to a £26bn rise for homeowners, says Resolution Foundation thinktankMore than five million families could see their annual mortgage payments rise by an average of £5,100 between now and the end of 2024, heaping fresh pain on households already struggling with higher food and energy bills.The increase adds up to a £26bn mortgage rise for homeowners, according to the analysis by the Resolution Foundation thinktank which said nearly a fifth of British households would have to spend more on their housing costs by the end of 2024. Continue reading...

Source close to sacked chancellor briefs Times that ‘wagons are still going to circle’ around embattled prime minsiterThe Conservative peer, Ed Vaizey, said he disagreed with the international trade secretary, Greg Hands, who earlier said Kwasi Kwarteng’s early return is not unusual. “It is quite unusual for this to happen,” he said.Speaking to Sky News, Vaizey said the chancellor cutting his trip to the US short is “not a good sign”. He said:I’m afraid the chancellor coming back a day early doesn’t fill one with confidence.The fact that people were speculating about the prime minister’s leadership this early in her premiership is not ideal, but I think he’s just got to bite the bullet. He’s got to try to give the markets confidence in the British economy.If he can do that then perhaps he can say: ‘Well, I had to do some difficult choices, slightly humiliating choices, but the result is stabilisation and I can move forward.’ Continue reading...

Sterling fell, FTSE 100 lost its gains and bond yields rose after PM’s press conference failed to announce new direction

On 30 September, the then chancellor’s mini-budget triggered a chain of events that led to a dramatic downfallIt is three weeks since the now former chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng delivered his not-a-budget budget, a package of £45bn of unfunded tax cuts.To say the so-called growth plan spooked investors in the financial markets would be an understatement; the response was a damning indictment of economic policies that were at the heart of Liz Truss’s pitch to be Conservative leader and prime minister. Continue reading...

Strong demand for beauty products such as eyeliners and mascaras, as chocolate and coffee also sell wellThe shadow cast by the cost of living crisis has spurred a retreat into small luxuries with Britons cheering themselves up with mood boosters such as luxury lip balms and false nails as well as chocolate and coffee.The lipstick index, coined by Estée Lauder’s Leonard Lauder, is the idea that sales of affordable luxuries rise in economic downturns. This spending behaviour has been true during previous downturns and the same picture is emerging again as consumers battle severe financial headwinds. Continue reading...

In today’s newsletter: Today the UK central bank is due to end its rare, urgent bond-buying to help stabilise the economy – but why, and what does it mean for you?Good morning.The chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, has cut short his trip to Washington, returning to London for urgent talks in Downing Street because of widespread expectations that another massive U-turn, this time on a cut to corporation tax, is imminent. Read on for the latest developments.Finance | Research by the Trades Union Congress has found that bankers bonuses have doubled since the 2008 financial crash. The TUC says bonuses in the finance and the insurance sector have reached £20,000 a year on average.Twitter | Federal authorities are investigating Elon Musk’s $44bn takeover deal with Twitter. It is not clear which authorities are investigating or what the focus of the inquiry will be.US | A Florida jury has recommended life in prison for Nikolas Cruz, the 24-year-old responsible for the 2018 Marjory Stoneman Douglas high school shooting, the deadliest such act in US history. Cruz killed 14 students and three staff members.Social care | The Guardian has obtained footage that reveals an 88-year-old woman with dementia was mentally and physically abused in Reigate Grange, a luxury UK care home that can cost up to £100,000 a year.Education | A landmark court judgment has given students from migrant families in Scotland the same right to free university tuition as their peers. Continue reading...

Bond buy-up seems to have been a sound bet, but ending intervention after two weeks is more of a gambleThere are just a few hours to go before the end of the Bank of England’s emergency bond-buying programme, brought in two weeks ago to limit damage to pension funds from a sudden fall in the value of UK government debt.It is still unclear whether 14 days was long enough for the most at risk funds to shore up their cash reserves. When the bond market closing bell sounds at 4.30pm today, some of the weaker funds may face a cliff-edge. Continue reading...

It showcases the art world’s most cutting-edge work. But the Frieze art fair is also a marketplace where the eye-watering prices are defying the looming global recession. Jonathan Jones explains why this is happening – and if the bubble is about to burstFrieze has arguably become the most important event in the art world’s calendar. For art lovers it is a place to see a dizzying array of the most exciting modern work being produced – all under one roof. For artists, gallerists and auction houses, however, this huge art fair is a time to meet up, schmooze and sell, sell, sell – often to the super-rich.Nosheen Iqbal asks Jonathan Jones how Frieze got so big, and how the staggering prices art can now command have changed what is being made. From the super-wealthy to banks, buyers now see art as an investment, as well as a pleasure. But is this sustainable? Continue reading...

RAC says one in seven drivers want EV as next car and one in three want hybrid model but cost of living crisis is delaying moveA record number of drivers want their next car to be electric, but the cost of living crisis is forcing many to delay making the switch to a more eco-friendly vehicle.The RAC said a record 14% of drivers say their next car will be electric, up from 10% last year and just 3% in 2018. A further 29% said they intended to switch to a hybrid vehicle of some description, which combines petrol and electric power. Continue reading...

Corporation tax plans likely to be latest to be dropped – bad news for Kwarteng’s credibility, but good for his balance sheet

Economic harm | Size of a soccer pitch | Save the coronation date | Teacher exhortations | Humble pieGeorge Osborne, the chancellor who enthusiastically swung the wrecking ball of Tory austerity, is complaining that Liz Truss’s damaging policies may wipe out the Conservative party (Liz Truss on verge of major U-turn on real-terms benefits cut, 9 October). It’s as if a person who connived with arsonists is whining about a fellow pyromaniac chucking petrol on the remaining embers.

It was the government that started this fire – but the Bank is proving to be a poor firefighterFor all the attention grabbed by sterling’s wild gyrations in the three weeks since the chancellor’s mini-budget, the real action has been in the market for British government bonds, known as gilts. The pound going up or down a few percentage points does matter: a weaker pound increases the cost of imported goods such as energy and food, and feeds through into inflation and living standards. But those impacts pale into insignificance compared with the pain that can be delivered by the gilts market.Over the last month, the price moves in this market have, in the usually cautious words of the Bank of England, raised a “material risk” of a breakdown in financial stability, coming close to a “fire sale dynamic”. The interest rate, or yield, on British government borrowing has shot up with almost unprecedented speed. The move in September was the largest monthly increase in any major economy since at least 1987. That was enough to force the Bank to intervene in an attempt to restore a sense of orderliness in an operation that is due to end on Friday 14 October.Duncan Weldon is an economist and the author of Two Hundred Years of Muddling Through. Continue reading...

Eclipsed by rich countries’ own problems, a crunch a decade in the making is coming to a headKristalina Georgieva, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund knows it. David Malpass, the World Bank president knows it too. An increasing number of countries are having problems paying their debts, and the crunch point is fast arriving.The looming debt crisis has been a slow-burn affair, more than a decade in the making. It is not the number one issue under discussion at the annual meetings of the World Bank and the IMF in Washington this week, although if rich countries had fewer problems of their own it would be. Continue reading...

Economy in focus: The US loves its cars – but soaring prices are a big issue. In the midwest, Adam Gabbatt asks voters what they thinkThe Henry Ford museum, in Dearborn, Michigan, is a tribute to America’s obsession with the motor vehicle.The sprawling complex, set across 12 acres, is home to early examples of the Ford Model T, the mass-produced, affordable vehicle that set the US on the path of a car-dominant culture, as well as other era-defining vehicles right up to today. Continue reading...

BoE’s move to end bond buying is a big gamble given the magnitude of the bind Britain is in

Statement from No 10 comes straight after PM told MPs she was ‘absolutely’ committed to avoiding public spending cuts. This live blog is now closedSajid Javid, the former Tory chancellor, has been speaking at an event organised by the Legatum Institute thinktank this morning. As Chris Smyth from the Times reports, Javid said the turmoil in the markets was caused by the fact that the tax cuts in the mini-budget went “way beyond” what Liz Truss promised during the leadership campaign, and by the fact that her energy bills bailout was also much bigger than expected.The government has drawn up a plan to cap the unit cost of gas and electricity for two years. Labour proposed its own plan to freeze energy bills, but it only proposed a commitment for six months. Continue reading...

Limp growth would normally require fiscal stimulus, yet concerns about inflation mean we’re unlikely to see a big-spending budget

Price of 20-year UK bonds hit new lows as Bank of England statement rules out considering an extension

Liz Truss committed to 'absolutely' no cuts to public spending at prime minister's questions on Wednesday, after Keir Starmer pressed her on a campaign pledge when she was a contender for leadership of the Conservative party.'During her leadership contest, the prime minister said, and I quote her exactly: "I’m very clear I’m not planning public spending reductions." Is she going to stick to that?' the Labour leader asked. Truss replied: 'Absolutely.'The prime minister also surprised MPs when she said she would honour a Tory manifesto commitment to ban 'no-fault evictions' after the Labour MP Graham Stringer asked what the government's position was

Liz Truss said she was 'absolutely' committed to making no cuts to public spending, during a series of heated exchanges with Labour leader, Keir Starmer, at prime minister's questions on Wednesday. The prime minister has been under public pressure since the chancellor's mini-budget was met with turmoil in financial markets, the pound to sliding against the dollar and mortgage rates increasing.Starmer also challenged Truss on the impact of the mini-budget on mortgages and financial markets. 'The Tories went on a borrowing spree sending mortgage rates through the roof and for two million homeowners their fixed-rate deals are coming to an end next year,' he said. 'They're worried sick and everybody in this house knows it'

Economic confidence in UK seriously undermined by Kwarteng and Truss’s ‘guerrilla tactics’, Commons committee hears

The business secretary, Jacob Rees-Mogg, has accused the BBC of breaching its duty of impartiality by linking the drop in the pound and instability in pension funds to Kwasi Kwarteng's mini-budget.'You suggest something is causal, which is a speculation,' Rees-Mogg said. 'What has caused the effect in pension funds … is not necessarily the mini-budget. I think jumping to conclusions about causality is not meeting the BBC requirement for impartiality'

Business secretary claims impartiality rules breached by suggestion market turmoil is linked to mini-budget

August GDP data from ONS gives strong signal that UK is entering recession

Implementing massively racist Australian-style immigration policies? Tick

In the 1990s, Russia embraced an extreme economics that led to chaos and corruption. Now, writes the maker of explosive new series TraumaZone, Liz Truss is taking Britain down the same toxic pathThe central mystery of our time is why, at a moment when the whole political and social system is out of control and in total chaos, no one seems able to imagine any alternative. The economic system is not delivering the good life it once promised, but is instead creating chaos and hardship for millions. Meanwhile, those in charge of the system are profiting massively from that chaos, feeding off the uncertainty. And the political class are in thrall to an economic theory that has become absurd and corrupted.I’ve just made TraumaZone, a series of films about another time when that was happening. It was in Russia in the 1990s after communism collapsed. Those in charge began an experiment to create an extreme form of capitalism. I made it because I don’t think we in the west understand what the Russians went through: a cataclysm that tore apart the foundations of society. Continue reading...

Pensions hedging crisis shows how the City never seems equipped to handle the next big financial hazardPension funds have found themselves embroiled in a byzantine world of exotic financial trading that many of them appear to have badly misunderstood.On Tuesday, a third rescue mission in little more than a fortnight was announced by the Bank of England, which is reprising its role in the 2008 financial crisis as the City’s lifeboat. Continue reading...

Sterling falls more than a cent to below $1.10 after Andrew Bailey tells pension firms they have ‘got to get this done’The pound has fallen sharply against the dollar after Andrew Bailey warned the Bank of England would not extend its emergency intervention in financial markets beyond this week, after the turmoil sparked by the government’s mini-budget.Sterling skidded by more than a cent against the dollar to below $1.10 after the Bank’s governor insisted the £65bn scheme to purchase UK government bonds would not be continued beyond the deadline on Friday. Continue reading...

Kwasi Kwarteng accused of compounding anxiety as he says announcement on uprating benefits will come in Halloween fiscal statementStruggling households will have to wait until the end of October to find out whether welfare payments will rise with inflation or be subject to a real-terms cut, the chancellor has announced.Kwasi Kwarteng was accused of compounding the anxiety faced by those already at the sharp end of the cost of living crisis by telling them clarity would not come until his Halloween fiscal statement. Continue reading...

After Bank expands action to stave off ‘fire sale’ in wake of mini-budget, investors ask for longer expiry date

The government and its central bank are plotting a path that will create a painful recession. Both ought to change courseIn chess they call it zugzwang – a situation in which any legal move leaves the player worse off. Both the chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, and the Bank of England are searching for a winning way out of their predicaments, given the constraints imposed by public opinion. They are unlikely to find one. “Trussonomics” – a mixture of tax cuts, sharp reductions in public spending and higher interest rates – has arrived as Britons back higher investment, nationalised industries and lower levels of inequality. Voters are getting the opposite of what they want, with trust in ministers plummeting.No government has sabotaged its economic reputation as quickly as this one. The Bank has had to step in three times since the chancellor’s mini-budget to stop a big sell-off in UK debt caused by the government announcing a fiscal package that borrows, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, £370bn over the next two years for little obvious economic gain. The mayhem was entirely predictable. Mr Kwarteng is spending more than the government gets back in taxes; the difference is funded by selling government debt at a price determined by auctions where finance houses determine the yields. The more debt that is issued, the higher the interest rate investors demand to hold government IOUs – a process that leads ultimately to higher mortgage payments. Continue reading...

This live blog is now closed. You can find out latest politics stories here: