Strong demand for beauty products such as eyeliners and mascaras, as chocolate and coffee also sell wellThe shadow cast by the cost of living crisis has spurred a retreat into small luxuries with Britons cheering themselves up with mood boosters such as luxury lip balms and false nails as well as chocolate and coffee.The lipstick index, coined by Estée Lauder’s Leonard Lauder, is the idea that sales of affordable luxuries rise in economic downturns. This spending behaviour has been true during previous downturns and the same picture is emerging again as consumers battle severe financial headwinds. Continue reading...
In today’s newsletter: Today the UK central bank is due to end its rare, urgent bond-buying to help stabilise the economy – but why, and what does it mean for you?Good morning.The chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, has cut short his trip to Washington, returning to London for urgent talks in Downing Street because of widespread expectations that another massive U-turn, this time on a cut to corporation tax, is imminent. Read on for the latest developments.Finance | Research by the Trades Union Congress has found that bankers bonuses have doubled since the 2008 financial crash. The TUC says bonuses in the finance and the insurance sector have reached £20,000 a year on average.Twitter | Federal authorities are investigating Elon Musk’s $44bn takeover deal with Twitter. It is not clear which authorities are investigating or what the focus of the inquiry will be.US | A Florida jury has recommended life in prison for Nikolas Cruz, the 24-year-old responsible for the 2018 Marjory Stoneman Douglas high school shooting, the deadliest such act in US history. Cruz killed 14 students and three staff members.Social care | The Guardian has obtained footage that reveals an 88-year-old woman with dementia was mentally and physically abused in Reigate Grange, a luxury UK care home that can cost up to £100,000 a year.Education | A landmark court judgment has given students from migrant families in Scotland the same right to free university tuition as their peers. Continue reading...
by Kalyeena Makortoff Banking correspondent on (#64Q7K)
Bond buy-up seems to have been a sound bet, but ending intervention after two weeks is more of a gambleThere are just a few hours to go before the end of the Bank of England’s emergency bond-buying programme, brought in two weeks ago to limit damage to pension funds from a sudden fall in the value of UK government debt.It is still unclear whether 14 days was long enough for the most at risk funds to shore up their cash reserves. When the bond market closing bell sounds at 4.30pm today, some of the weaker funds may face a cliff-edge. Continue reading...
by Presented by Nosheen Iqbal with Jonathan Jones; pr on (#64Q43)
It showcases the art world’s most cutting-edge work. But the Frieze art fair is also a marketplace where the eye-watering prices are defying the looming global recession. Jonathan Jones explains why this is happening – and if the bubble is about to burstFrieze has arguably become the most important event in the art world’s calendar. For art lovers it is a place to see a dizzying array of the most exciting modern work being produced – all under one roof. For artists, gallerists and auction houses, however, this huge art fair is a time to meet up, schmooze and sell, sell, sell – often to the super-rich.Nosheen Iqbal asks Jonathan Jones how Frieze got so big, and how the staggering prices art can now command have changed what is being made. From the super-wealthy to banks, buyers now see art as an investment, as well as a pleasure. But is this sustainable? Continue reading...
RAC says one in seven drivers want EV as next car and one in three want hybrid model but cost of living crisis is delaying moveA record number of drivers want their next car to be electric, but the cost of living crisis is forcing many to delay making the switch to a more eco-friendly vehicle.The RAC said a record 14% of drivers say their next car will be electric, up from 10% last year and just 3% in 2018. A further 29% said they intended to switch to a hybrid vehicle of some description, which combines petrol and electric power. Continue reading...
Economic harm | Size of a soccer pitch | Save the coronation date | Teacher exhortations | Humble pieGeorge Osborne, the chancellor who enthusiastically swung the wrecking ball of Tory austerity, is complaining that Liz Truss’s damaging policies may wipe out the Conservative party (Liz Truss on verge of major U-turn on real-terms benefits cut, 9 October). It’s as if a person who connived with arsonists is whining about a fellow pyromaniac chucking petrol on the remaining embers.
It was the government that started this fire – but the Bank is proving to be a poor firefighterFor all the attention grabbed by sterling’s wild gyrations in the three weeks since the chancellor’s mini-budget, the real action has been in the market for British government bonds, known as gilts. The pound going up or down a few percentage points does matter: a weaker pound increases the cost of imported goods such as energy and food, and feeds through into inflation and living standards. But those impacts pale into insignificance compared with the pain that can be delivered by the gilts market.Over the last month, the price moves in this market have, in the usually cautious words of the Bank of England, raised a “material risk” of a breakdown in financial stability, coming close to a “fire sale dynamic”. The interest rate, or yield, on British government borrowing has shot up with almost unprecedented speed. The move in September was the largest monthly increase in any major economy since at least 1987. That was enough to force the Bank to intervene in an attempt to restore a sense of orderliness in an operation that is due to end on Friday 14 October.Duncan Weldon is an economist and the author of Two Hundred Years of Muddling Through. Continue reading...
Eclipsed by rich countries’ own problems, a crunch a decade in the making is coming to a headKristalina Georgieva, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund knows it. David Malpass, the World Bank president knows it too. An increasing number of countries are having problems paying their debts, and the crunch point is fast arriving.The looming debt crisis has been a slow-burn affair, more than a decade in the making. It is not the number one issue under discussion at the annual meetings of the World Bank and the IMF in Washington this week, although if rich countries had fewer problems of their own it would be. Continue reading...
Economy in focus: The US loves its cars – but soaring prices are a big issue. In the midwest, Adam Gabbatt asks voters what they thinkThe Henry Ford museum, in Dearborn, Michigan, is a tribute to America’s obsession with the motor vehicle.The sprawling complex, set across 12 acres, is home to early examples of the Ford Model T, the mass-produced, affordable vehicle that set the US on the path of a car-dominant culture, as well as other era-defining vehicles right up to today. Continue reading...
Statement from No 10 comes straight after PM told MPs she was ‘absolutely’ committed to avoiding public spending cuts. This live blog is now closedSajid Javid, the former Tory chancellor, has been speaking at an event organised by the Legatum Institute thinktank this morning. As Chris Smyth from the Times reports, Javid said the turmoil in the markets was caused by the fact that the tax cuts in the mini-budget went “way beyond” what Liz Truss promised during the leadership campaign, and by the fact that her energy bills bailout was also much bigger than expected.The government has drawn up a plan to cap the unit cost of gas and electricity for two years. Labour proposed its own plan to freeze energy bills, but it only proposed a commitment for six months. Continue reading...
Liz Truss committed to 'absolutely' no cuts to public spending at prime minister's questions on Wednesday, after Keir Starmer pressed her on a campaign pledge when she was a contender for leadership of the Conservative party.'During her leadership contest, the prime minister said, and I quote her exactly: "I’m very clear I’m not planning public spending reductions." Is she going to stick to that?' the Labour leader asked. Truss replied: 'Absolutely.'The prime minister also surprised MPs when she said she would honour a Tory manifesto commitment to ban 'no-fault evictions' after the Labour MP Graham Stringer asked what the government's position was
Liz Truss said she was 'absolutely' committed to making no cuts to public spending, during a series of heated exchanges with Labour leader, Keir Starmer, at prime minister's questions on Wednesday. The prime minister has been under public pressure since the chancellor's mini-budget was met with turmoil in financial markets, the pound to sliding against the dollar and mortgage rates increasing.Starmer also challenged Truss on the impact of the mini-budget on mortgages and financial markets. 'The Tories went on a borrowing spree sending mortgage rates through the roof and for two million homeowners their fixed-rate deals are coming to an end next year,' he said. 'They're worried sick and everybody in this house knows it'
The business secretary, Jacob Rees-Mogg, has accused the BBC of breaching its duty of impartiality by linking the drop in the pound and instability in pension funds to Kwasi Kwarteng's mini-budget.'You suggest something is causal, which is a speculation,' Rees-Mogg said. 'What has caused the effect in pension funds … is not necessarily the mini-budget. I think jumping to conclusions about causality is not meeting the BBC requirement for impartiality'
In the 1990s, Russia embraced an extreme economics that led to chaos and corruption. Now, writes the maker of explosive new series TraumaZone, Liz Truss is taking Britain down the same toxic pathThe central mystery of our time is why, at a moment when the whole political and social system is out of control and in total chaos, no one seems able to imagine any alternative. The economic system is not delivering the good life it once promised, but is instead creating chaos and hardship for millions. Meanwhile, those in charge of the system are profiting massively from that chaos, feeding off the uncertainty. And the political class are in thrall to an economic theory that has become absurd and corrupted.I’ve just made TraumaZone, a series of films about another time when that was happening. It was in Russia in the 1990s after communism collapsed. Those in charge began an experiment to create an extreme form of capitalism. I made it because I don’t think we in the west understand what the Russians went through: a cataclysm that tore apart the foundations of society. Continue reading...
Pensions hedging crisis shows how the City never seems equipped to handle the next big financial hazardPension funds have found themselves embroiled in a byzantine world of exotic financial trading that many of them appear to have badly misunderstood.On Tuesday, a third rescue mission in little more than a fortnight was announced by the Bank of England, which is reprising its role in the 2008 financial crisis as the City’s lifeboat. Continue reading...
by Larry Elliott in Washington and Richard Partington on (#64M34)
Sterling falls more than a cent to below $1.10 after Andrew Bailey tells pension firms they have ‘got to get this done’The pound has fallen sharply against the dollar after Andrew Bailey warned the Bank of England would not extend its emergency intervention in financial markets beyond this week, after the turmoil sparked by the government’s mini-budget.Sterling skidded by more than a cent against the dollar to below $1.10 after the Bank’s governor insisted the £65bn scheme to purchase UK government bonds would not be continued beyond the deadline on Friday. Continue reading...
by Aubrey Allegretti Political correspondent on (#64KWE)
Kwasi Kwarteng accused of compounding anxiety as he says announcement on uprating benefits will come in Halloween fiscal statementStruggling households will have to wait until the end of October to find out whether welfare payments will rise with inflation or be subject to a real-terms cut, the chancellor has announced.Kwasi Kwarteng was accused of compounding the anxiety faced by those already at the sharp end of the cost of living crisis by telling them clarity would not come until his Halloween fiscal statement. Continue reading...
The government and its central bank are plotting a path that will create a painful recession. Both ought to change courseIn chess they call it zugzwang – a situation in which any legal move leaves the player worse off. Both the chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, and the Bank of England are searching for a winning way out of their predicaments, given the constraints imposed by public opinion. They are unlikely to find one. “Trussonomics” – a mixture of tax cuts, sharp reductions in public spending and higher interest rates – has arrived as Britons back higher investment, nationalised industries and lower levels of inequality. Voters are getting the opposite of what they want, with trust in ministers plummeting.No government has sabotaged its economic reputation as quickly as this one. The Bank has had to step in three times since the chancellor’s mini-budget to stop a big sell-off in UK debt caused by the government announcing a fiscal package that borrows, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, £370bn over the next two years for little obvious economic gain. The mayhem was entirely predictable. Mr Kwarteng is spending more than the government gets back in taxes; the difference is funded by selling government debt at a price determined by auctions where finance houses determine the yields. The more debt that is issued, the higher the interest rate investors demand to hold government IOUs – a process that leads ultimately to higher mortgage payments. Continue reading...
by Richard Partington Economics correspondent on (#64KS4)
Shareholders have enjoyed large payouts at time of meagre workers’ pay growth, says study from thinktanksKwasi Kwarteng is pushing ahead with a multimillion pound tax cut for wealthy individuals despite growing concerns over the public finances, according to a report highlighting a boom for investor dividends since the Covid pandemic.On a renewed day of turbulence in financial markets over the chancellor’s unfunded tax cutting plans, the Treasury confirmed it would reduce the rate of income tax on dividends. Continue reading...
Fund says ‘worst yet to come’ because of rising living costs, Ukraine war and Chinese slowdownThe International Monetary Fund has told central banks to “stay the course” in their fight against inflation, despite warning that a third of the global economy will be in recession next year.In its half-yearly update, the Washington-based IMF said the “worst was yet to come”. It cited a combination of cost of living pressures, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a slowdown in China as important factors behind a fresh growth downgrade. Continue reading...
Fund says chancellor’s measures have made Bank of England’s battle against inflation more difficultKwasi Kwarteng has come under fresh fire from the International Monetary Fund after the Washington-based organisation said his tax cuts and energy support package had made the Bank of England’s battle against inflation more difficult.The IMF used its prestigious world economic outlook (WEO) to criticise the scale of the stimulus provided by the chancellor and the blanket nature of the price cap on gas and electricity bills. Continue reading...
by Richard Partington Economics correspondent on (#64K9R)
Jobless level lowest since 1974 but pay growth still failing to keep pace with soaring inflationThe number of working-age adults in Britain who are not in the jobs market because they are long-term sick has increased to a record high, official figures show, amid concerns over shortages of workers in the UK economy.The Office for National Statistics said unemployment in the UK fell to 3.5% in the three months to August from a previous level of 3.8%, dropping to the lowest level since February 1974. Continue reading...
by Jessica Elgot, Peter Walker and Richard Partington on (#64JCD)
Veteran official gets permanent secretary role instead of reformer as fiscal plan is brought forward by three weeksLiz Truss has overruled Kwasi Kwarteng’s top appointment at the Treasury and handed the role to a veteran Treasury official, one of a series of moves designed to calm markets and backbenchers.It was also announced that the chancellor will set out plans to shore up the public finances three weeks earlier than planned and publish long-awaited forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility at the same time. Continue reading...
Analysis of budgets finds rich nations, including UK, ‘exacerbated explosion of economic inequality’Many of the world’s poorest countries have cut health spending during the last two years, sometimes to make debt repayments to rich creditors, according to a report by Oxfam that shows inequality between rich and poor nations worsening during the coronavirus pandemic.Analysis of national budgets across 161 nations found that despite the biggest global health emergency in a century, half of low- and lower-middle-income countries cut health spending, while almost half cut their welfare budgets and almost three-quarters cut education spending. Continue reading...
IFS says Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget will leave ministers making serious reductions in public servicesKwasi Kwarteng will need to find £60bn of savings by 2026 to fill the gap left by unfunded tax cuts and the costs of extra borrowing triggered by a panicked reaction on international money markets to the chancellor’s “mini-budget”, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.The UK will also struggle to hit the chancellor’s 2.5% growth target, with economic forecasts by the investment bank Citigroup that the IFS uses to underpin its analysis showing the UK will struggle to grow at more than 0.8% on average over the next five years. Continue reading...
Jamie Dimon said the Federal Reserve ‘waited too long and did too little’ as inflation has surged in the past 18 monthsThe US and global economy is facing a “very, very serious” mix of headwinds that is likely to cause a recession by the middle of next year, warned Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JP Morgan Chase, the largest US investment bank, on Monday.Dimon pointed to the effects of runaway inflation, sharp interest rate rises and Russia’s war in Ukraine, as factors that informed his thinking. But he added that the US is “actually still doing well” and consumers were likely to be in better shape compared with the global financial crisis in 2008. Continue reading...
The former chair of the US Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke has been awarded this year’s Nobel prize in economics alongside two other leading economists for their work on financial crises. The former head of the world’s most powerful central bank – who was at the helm during the 2008 financial crisis and helped oversee the global response – said he was ‘incredibly honoured’ to share the prize with the economists Douglas Diamond and Philip Dybvig
by Richard Partington Economics correspondent on (#64JNB)
Head of US central bank from 2006 to 2014 awarded prize alongside economists Douglas Diamond and Philip DybvigThe former chair of the US Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke has been awarded this year’s Nobel prize in economics alongside two other leading economists for their work on financial crises.The former head of the world’s most powerful central bank, who was at the helm during the 2008 financial crisis and helped oversee the global response, shared the prize with the economists Douglas Diamond and Philip Dybvig. Continue reading...
by Richard Partington Economics correspondent on (#64J83)
Yield on 10-year government bonds rises above 4.5% despite Bank of England trying to quell jittersUK government borrowing costs have risen to the highest levels since the financial market chaos triggered by Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget in September, despite renewed efforts by the Bank of England to smooth over the turmoil.The yield – or interest rate – on 10-year UK government bonds rose above 4.5% in afternoon trading on Monday, returning to the levels last seen two weeks ago, before the central bank intervened after the chancellor’s poorly received tax and spending statement. Continue reading...
The prime minister is calling for greed, not growth, says Dr David Scott. Plus letters from Rob Basto, Catherine Dornan and Mike HineLast week, Liz Truss bemoaned the “anti-growth coalition” and called for “growth, growth, growth”. This nonexistent broad-based coalition seems to include nearly everyone who does not agree with her dangerously irresponsible promotion of profits and capitalist accumulation, no matter what the human and environmental costs.Truss seems to care nothing for the wellbeing of ordinary people. In fact, she is not calling for growth, but for greed. I would be happy to join any anti-greed coalition – one that calls for the growth of human wellbeing and life expectancy; the growth of understanding of the catastrophic crisis that the world is facing through ecocide and of interventions that can prevent it; and growth in capacity of welfare services, such as the NHS, that meet human need. Continue reading...
Incomes have stalled while the rich get richer. It’s clear the obsession with GDP has to changeLiz Truss was clear what she wanted. “I have three priorities for our economy,” the prime minister told the Conservative party conference last week: “Growth, growth and growth.” But her problem is that this is not actually clear at all.The definition of economic growth is an expansion of national income, as measured by GDP (gross domestic product). Since the 1950s it has been the objective of more or less all governments to have GDP growing every year.Michael Jacobs is professor of political economy at the University of Sheffield
Kwasi Kwarteng brings forward release of debt-cutting plan, as Bank of England announces new measures to support pensions sector through crisisDespite the Bank’s announcement, long-dated UK bond prices have opened a little lower.The yield on 30-year UK government bonds have inched up to 4.45%, from 4.38% on Friday night.The UK index of financial stress (which takes into account the rise in UK interest rate spreads as well as their volatility) remains as high as when the BoE started its intervention in late September.Equally important, and as I explain for The Conversation, persistently high financial stress can have a depressing impact on UK GDP for as many as 20 months. So we are not out of the woods yet… Continue reading...
Fall of 0.2% recorded in week starting 2 October, with biggest dip in shopping centres and retail parksThe number of visitors to shopping destinations dropped back last week in one of the first indications of a slowdown in spending amid rising energy bills.In the week beginning 2 October, footfall slipped by 0.2% on the previous week across all UK retail destinations, with the biggest drop in shopping centres and retail parks, according to figures from the monitoring group Springboard. Continue reading...
Phoenix’s economy appears to be booming – but wages are failing to keep up, and prices are spiralling. How do voters see it?In her back pocket, Ana Diaz carries a smooth grey pebble she calls her “knock-knocker”. She uses it to get a loud rap on the front doors of the South Phoenix neighborhood where she is canvassing for the Democrats ahead of November’s crucial midterm elections.It’s 110F (43C) in the early afternoon sun, and Diaz is aiming to knock on 80 doors in this largely Latino neighborhood and speak to at least 20 people, encouraging them to vote. Diaz, a Los Angeles-based bartender and Unite Here union member, is a familiar face to many in this working-class area. In her T-shirt that reads “Worker power” she has been knocking on these doors since 2018. Continue reading...
UK’s biggest tenpin bowling operator says its low-cost entertainment will appeal to cash-strapped familiesHollywood Bowl, the UK’s biggest tenpin bowling operator, has increased annual revenues and profits to well above pre-pandemic levels and believes its value entertainment will continue to appeal to families cutting back on household spending.The company, which claims to be cheaper than its rivals, said the ability of a family of four to play for less than £22 would continue to make it attractive during the cost of living crisis. Continue reading...
by Richard Partington Economics correspondent on (#64J66)
Chancellor will also bring forward publication of OBR forecasts after pressure from MPs• Live coverage: UK to publish fiscal plan on 31 OctoberKwasi Kwarteng has brought forward the date of his debt-cutting plan to 31 October after pressure from MPs over the unfunded tax and spending promises announced in last month’s mini-budget.The chancellor told the Commons Treasury committee that he would use the new date to announce his “medium-term fiscal plan”, alongside the release of fresh forecasts for the economy and public finances from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). Continue reading...
Janet Yellen’s comments come as figures show business activity declining across most UK regionsThe world’s biggest oil-producing nations cutting production at a time of soaring energy costs is “unhelpful and unwise” for global economic growth, the US Treasury secretary has warned, amid intense pressure from sky-high inflation.Ahead of meetings hosted by the International Monetary Fund in Washington this week, Janet Yellen said the move by Opec+ – the oil production cartel led by Saudi Arabia, plus Russia – risked undermining the world economy. Continue reading...