UK business confidence falls to levels that signal a recession, as new orders growth weakens

Spirit of consensus has gone as ministers seek a scapegoat for the stagflation affecting the economyA little more than two years ago Rishi Sunak stood outside 11 Downing Street flanked by the head of the TUC, Frances O’Grady, and Carolyn Fairbairn, the boss of Britain’s leading employers’ group, the CBI. The photo op was meant to demonstrate a new spirit of tripartite solidarity that would help see Britain through the pandemic.The TUC had played a big part in plans for the furlough wage subsidy scheme and the chancellor was eager to show his gratitude. Announcing the government’s emergency economic package to parliament, Sunak thanked the TUC for its “constructive conversations” with the Treasury. Continue reading...

Business confidence slumps to level that typically signals imminent recession, warns economistBritain’s economy is starting to “run on empty” as post-pandemic order books dry up and the highest inflation in 40 years affects confidence, the latest snapshot of the private sector has shown.Flash estimates of the economy’s performance in June showed business optimism at its lowest since the early months of the Covid pandemic in the spring of 2020 and the sharpest drop in new order volumes for a year. Continue reading...

Interest on debt payment leaps 70% on a year ago to £7.6bn, a monthly recordGovernment borrowing was higher than expected in May at £14bn as soaring inflation sent interest payments on the UK’s debt to a monthly record.The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said debt interest payments leapt 70% on a year ago to £7.6bn, the third highest debt interest payment made by central government in any single month and the highest payment in May on record. Continue reading...

Supplies are running ‘two to three weeks’ behind, a situation the store says has been exacerbated by post-Brexit staff shortagesHarrods has delayed its summer discount sale by two to three weeks because of global supply chain hold-ups, it has announced.“Our supply chain is running two to three weeks behind where it should be,” Michael Ward, the managing director of the upmarket Knightsbridge department store, told Bloomberg TV at the Qatar Economic Forum. “A good example of that is, we’ve just delayed the summer sale for two weeks because I need another 10% of new-season stock to allow me to function into the new year.” Continue reading...

Jim O’Neill scathing about decision to help pensioners while forcing real-terms pay cuts on public sector workersGovernment plans to raise the state pension by 10% while forcing real-terms pay cuts on public sector workers have been attacked as “ludicrous” by a former Conservative Treasury minister.Jim O’Neill, the former Goldman Sachs chief economist who served as a minister under George Osborne, said it was “crazy” to protect pensioner incomes while younger people’s wages were being eroded by the highest inflation rates for 40 years. Continue reading...

Senator Elizabeth Warren criticizes the Fed’s rate moves, expressing fear that rate hikes will ‘drive this economy off a cliff’The Federal Reserve will keep raising rates until it sees “compelling evidence” that inflation is coming down, the Fed chair, Jerome Powell, told Congress on Wednesday.The US is wrestling with rates of inflation unseen in 40 years and Powell warned that “further surprises could be in store”. Continue reading...

Rising prices and recession mean the last thing the government should do is muddle through and leave everything to the marketInflation is back with a vengeance. The cost of living has not been rising this fast since the Falklands war. Prices are climbing faster than wages. In every respect bar one, this is clearly bad news. The best that Britain can hope for in the months ahead is a period of stagflation: weak growth and rapidly rising prices. If things get really bad, we could be on course for an “incession” – high inflation combined with a recession. Either way, the outlook is grim, especially for those on the lowest incomes, who spend most on energy and food, for which price increases are heftiest.The one consolation is that high inflation acts as a national wake-up call. Or at least it should do. For far too long, the UK has drifted along convinced that all is well because cheap imports from China are keeping inflation low and rock-bottom interest rates are fuelling a house-price boom. It would be nice to think we have finally woken up to reality. But that in itself is an illusion. Just as in the 1970s, the economy’s structural weaknesses have been exposed by a period when prices are hurtling upwards. Continue reading...

The pressures faced by one Yorkshire rice importer illustrate how costs feed through to consumersThe 20kg bags of rice stacked on ceiling-high shelving units look like any other but are the first to arrive in the West Yorkshire depot from Vietnam as the food price shocks fuelling inflation force companies to find cheaper ingredients.Jason Bull, one of the directors of Eurostar Commodities, which imports rice and flour destined for restaurant chains, supermarket suppliers and caterers, says the Brighouse-based company is facing its biggest challenge in nearly 30 years. Continue reading...

Stuart Rose flags ‘massive change’ in consumer behaviour and says No 10’s priority is to get inflation downShoppers at Asda are setting themselves £30 limits at checkouts and petrol pumps, the supermarket’s boss says, as consumers tighten their belts because of the cost of living crisis.Customers are employing several tactics to not overspend, said Stuart Rose, including putting fewer items in their baskets and opting for budget ranges. Continue reading...

Analysis: PPI, the indicator of rises before they reach the consumer, shows higher price rises to come• UK inflation rises to 9.1%, its highest rate in 40 yearsAre we there yet? Each month the same question is asked about the UK’s inflation rate. Is there any sign of the cost of living crisis abating? And each month the answer is in the negative. The current upward trend has further to go.May’s increase in the consumer prices index – the government’s preferred measure of inflation – was modest by recent standards but even so the rise from 9% to 9.1% was a new 40-year-high. Continue reading...

Headline CPI rate will add to cost of living crisis, fuelled by rises in food and transport costs• If UK inflation feels bad now, the grim news is worse is on the wayUK inflation has increased to 9.1%, its highest rate in 40 years amid record prices for petrol and the soaring cost of food.The figures from the Office for National Statistics showed an increase in May from 9% in April, as measured by the consumer price index, in a reading that matched the forecasts of City economists. In a fresh high, the headline inflation rate has hit a level not seen since February 1982, piling pressure on households in the cost of living crisis. Continue reading...

EU withdrawal fuelling higher import costs and costing British workers nearly £500 a year, says Resolution FoundationBritain’s cost of living crisis is being made worse by Brexit dragging down the country’s growth potential and costing workers hundreds of pounds a year in lost pay, new research claims.The Resolution Foundation thinktank and academics from the London School of Economics said the average worker in Britain was now on course to suffer more than £470 in lost pay each year by 2030 after rising living costs are taken into account, compared with a remain vote in 2016. Continue reading...

But sales have fallen to slowest pace since June 2020, near start of pandemic, and demand for homes still outstrip supplyThe average US house price hit an all-time high of over $400,000 in May even as interest rate rises and high prices led to a fourth consecutive month of declining sales.Existing home sales fell 3.4% last month from April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.41m, the National Association of Realtors said on Tuesday. Sales fell 8.6% from May last year, hitting a two-year low. Continue reading...

Musk’s comments, echoing other CEOs, are accompanied by plan to lay off 10% of Tesla’s salaried staffElon Musk has warned that a US recession is “more likely than not” to come soon as the Tesla chief executive confirmed plans to cut 10% of salaried staff at the electric carmaker over the next three months.The world’s richest man said a recession in the US was inevitable but would most probably come in the short term. Continue reading...

Living costs face squeeze even though pay deals in three months to May are highest since 1992Annual pay growth stalled at 4% in May, leaving most workers with a rise in earnings worth less than half the 9% increase in prices.Figures from XpertHR, a pay and personnel data publisher, said employer pay deals for the three months to May failed to increase on April’s median 4%, undermining concerns that workers would push for inflation-busting rises in earnings that could start a wage-price spiral. Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news

Highest inflation rates since the 1980s and wage stagnation have squeezed household budgetsBritain is facing the highest rates of inflation since the early 1980s, with households suffering the biggest hit to their incomes since modern records began. Energy bills are soaring, as is the cost of petrol. Food inflation is at a 13-year high, running at 8.3%, the market research firm Kantar said on Tuesday. The government has announced billions of pounds in emergency financial support, but has faced heavy criticism over its handling of the cost of living crisis as millions struggle to afford the basics.

Engineering firm says it is the first time it has made payment linked to economic climate not performanceRolls-Royce is to give more than 14,000 staff a £2,000 payment to help them cope with the soaring cost of living, the first time the engineering firm has made such a move.The one-off payment will go to shopfloor staff and junior management, who are mainly based at the company’s two biggest sites in Derby and Bristol. They represent 70% of Rolls-Royce’s UK workforce of about 20,000. Continue reading...

Without decent pay offers Britain risks remaining trapped in a low-wage, low-growth spiralBritain faces a rolling wave of strikes over pay and conditions in the coming months. The country’s railways will be effectively shut down for a week. Barristers will walk out from next Monday, stopping criminal trials in courts. Wage disputes have led to rubbish piling up in some parts of the country, while other regions have suffered late postal deliveries. Teachers and doctors are the latest professions threatening to strike if the government doesn’t meet their pay demands. But the country is not heading back to the 1970s. Trade unions in Britain have lost much of their clout in the workplace.Despite the headlines, the number of days lost to strikes has collapsed. At their peak, about half of employees were union members. Now the figure is 24% and these are disproportionately found in the public sector – which is why the government is facing off against so many groups. With pay deals yet to be signed, ministers find themselves facing calls for inflation-linked wage increases for 5 million workers, including those in the NHS, the armed forces, the civil service and local government. Continue reading...

Catherine Mann says Bank of England’s MPC is in danger of falling behind rival central banksThe Bank of England should raise interest rates more aggressively to shore up the weak pound, according to one of the central bank’s policymakers, who warned that sterling’s depreciation was fuelling inflation from higher import costs.In a hard-hitting speech, Catherine Mann said the nine-strong monetary policy committee (MPC), which she joined last year, was in danger of falling behind rival central banks that were taking a more energetic approach to tackling inflationary pressures. Continue reading...

Treasury officials’ fear that rising pay in pursuit of rising prices will create a vicious circle may be unjustifiedUnion leaders have derided calls by government ministers for wage restraint, believing their members must close the gap with rising inflation or risk a severe cut in living standards.One of the main reasons cited by officials in the Bank of England and the Treasury for wage restraint is the threat of a wage/price spiral and the fear that this ratcheting effect will make double-digit inflation a longstanding feature of life in the UK. Continue reading...

UK travel chaos deepens

Unsparing inflation across basics from food and energy to housing is pushing millions into poverty, as our correspondents reportAustraliaA photo of iceberg lettuce heads with $11.99 (£6.80) price tags went viral in recent weeks – leading to a wave of a tongue-in-cheek lettuce memes nodding to rising food, fuel and energy prices. Continue reading...

Government urged to act as firms hit by rising costs of energy, raw materials and transportBritish manufacturers have called on the Treasury to urgently provide more support amid a poor economic outlook to help “weather the immediate storm”.Make UK, the trade body for manufacturers, and the consultancy BDO found that costs were continuing to rise and output opportunities had been stifled. Continue reading...

While Boris Johnson plays politics, Britain’s public sector is fraying at the seamsEverywhere we look, the fabric of Britain is fraying at the seams. Strikes on the railways, airports in chaos, severe staff shortages, soaring prices for petrol and food, the biggest fall in living standards since the 1950s.With the biggest industrial dispute on the rail network in three decades due to begin this week, battle lines are drawn. Alongside the succession of shocks caused by the Covid pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine, Boris Johnson’s government will add another culprit for our palpable sense of national decline: workers. Continue reading...

Ex-PM says ‘any sensible government’ would be trying to build consensus to tackle economic crisisGordon Brown has said Boris Johnson needs to force global action to deal with inflation and food shortages instead of lurching from “crisis to crisis”, as he predicted planned corporation and fuel tax rises would need to be scrapped.The former prime minister, who was chancellor for a decade under Tony Blair, said “any sensible government” would be trying to get world leaders round the table to deal with the impending economic crisis and creating a plan for growth. Continue reading...

The current economic crisis might finally usher in a more equitable social modelThis is not the 1970s all over again, notwithstanding the apparent similarities – oil shocks, recession, seasons of discontent, inflation. What we are living through is something more profound. It is the painful unwinding of the dysfunctional Thatcherite economic model, driven by credit, consumption and property prices, so careless of investment, productivity and good, high-performance workplaces. Its end started with the financial crisis, accelerated with Brexit and is now sealed by the economic fallout from Ukraine.What is not obvious, given the backward-looking national economic conversation dominated by Thatcherite shibboleths and myths about the horrors of public debt, is what is going to succeed it. With the right leadership, it could be a moment for developing new modes of growth, 21st-century business models and high-wage employment, an attack on regional inequality and a reframing of our relationship with Europe. Continue reading...

Rail unions set to walk out on Tuesday, as clashes loom over public sector pay offers falling short of inflationA wave of 1970s-style economic unrest is threatening to spread from the railways across the public services, as unions representing teachers and NHS workers warn of potential industrial action over pay.With the country preparing for rail strikes on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday which will see half the network shut down, the biggest teaching union, the National Education Union (NEU), told the Observer that unless it receives a pay offer much closer to inflation by Wednesday, it will be informing education secretary Nadhim Zahawi of its plan to ballot its 450,000 members. The move could lead to strikes in schools in England in the autumn, the union said. Continue reading...

From stagflation to strikes, the only way is down for the prime minister Continue reading...

Central banks rode to the rescue of nervous investors for years. But now they are raising rates just as the world economy spirals downwardsBack in February, plenty of investors were betting that the buildup of Russian troops on Ukraine’s border was no more than an elaborate bluff.The Russian and Ukrainian currencies appreciated in value as hedge funds and private equity firms, signalling their faith in some form of peace deal emerging, confidently bought roubles and the Ukrainian hryvnia. Continue reading...

Exclusive: Emergency council cuts feared across England caused by inflation and higher energy costs

Analysis: Interest rate cuts show central banks willing to plunge economies into recession to halt price risesThe fight against inflation intensified this week as central banks stepped up their efforts to cool rising prices, and a global recession could be the price we pay.Investors reeled from the biggest rise in US interest rates in almost three decades, before Switzerland piled in with a shock increase in its borrowing costs, topped off by the fifth rise in a row from the Bank of England. Continue reading...

Central bank on high alert to raise interest rates more aggressively if needed, says Huw PillThe Bank of England will raise interest rates more aggressively to tackle soaring living costs if there are signs of inflation becoming persistently higher for longer than expected, its chief economist has warned.Huw Pill said Threadneedle Street was on high alert to take “forceful” action if there were signs of a wage-price spiral taking hold or if companies continued to raise their prices. Continue reading...

Forecourt staff feel their customers’ despair but insist there is nothing they can do to keep prices downA new unpleasant routine has begun at Bilal Naeem’s petrol station in sleepy Datchet, Berkshire. Almost every day someone will pull up, fill up and screech away without paying. “The crime rate has been incredible since fuel prices went up,” says Naeem, wincing. “A customer showed me a post on a local Facebook group telling people they only get a £50 fine for driving away without paying. That’s 50 quid of free petrol now.” One theft can wipe out his fuel profits for the day, he says.Thefts at petrol stations have become an increasingly common sight in recent weeks amid record petrol and diesel prices. The mundane ritual of filling up has become a source of anger and frustration for drivers as the bright red neon price figures rapidly tick up by the side of the road. Refuelling an average family car now costs more than £100. Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news

Buyers looking to pay no more than sticker price are flying long distances to snag a carAfter an auto dealer demanded $10,000 above sticker price for a new hybrid vehicle, car shopper Michael Rathjen of Kirkland, Washington, resolved to pay no more than the manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP) for the vehicle of his choice. He never dreamed his quest would take him eight months and 3,000 miles from home.“I’m calling across the entire country. I’m thinking this is not going to be possible. I’m not going to find a dealer selling at MSRP,” recalled Rathjen, a technical writer. “I kept calling further and further away until I hit Vermont.” Continue reading...

Investors wary as other central banks follow US Federal Reserve in raising borrowing costsThe global rout in stock markets, cryptocurrencies and other risky assets has gathered pace amid growing concern that out-of-control inflation, rising interest rates and slowing growth could combine to tip the world into recession.Share prices fell in Asia on Friday at the beginning of what was likely to be another torrid day for investors spooked by the US Federal Reserve’s decision this week to raise interest rates by the largest margin for almost 30 years. Continue reading...

Rate for 30-year mortgage climbed from 5.23% to 5.78% this week, the highest since November of 2008 during the housing crisisAverage long-term US mortgage rates had their biggest one-week jump in 35 years with the Federal Reserve this week raising its key rate by three-quarters of a point in an effort to tame high inflation.Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac reported on Thursday that the 30-year rate climbed from 5.23% last week to 5.78% this week, the highest its been since November of 2008 during the housing crisis. Continue reading...

UK central bank has raised interest rates to 1.25%, warned inflation will exceed 11% in autumn, and cut growth forecast for this quarter

The effect of the interest rate increase on mortgages, savings, annuities, house prices and rentsThe Bank of England has voted to raise interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to 1.25% as the UK grapples with high inflation. We look at what that means for your finances. Continue reading...

The next time the Bank of England debates interest rates, we’re likely to see a half-point increaseFive interest rate rises in a row from the Bank of England would once have been regarded as strong and determined action to tame inflation. The problem for Threadneedle Street is that the US Federal Reserve rather redefined the definition of decisive measures on Wednesday when it hiked by 0.75 percentage points in one go.Versus that full-on display of fireworks, the Bank’s quarter-point move to 1.25% felt like a case of turning up with a couple of sparklers. It was a bare-minimum move given that official forecasts now see inflation at 11% in October when consumers’ energy bills go up again. The inflation forecasts get bigger every time the Bank opens its mouth these days. As recently as February – just before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – the peak was projected to be 7.25%. Continue reading...

Bank warns of inflation rising to 11% after split vote to lift rate, for fifth time in a row, by 0.25 pointsThe Bank of England has raised interest rates for a fifth time in succession to tackle an inflation rate that is heading towards 11% amid soaring household energy bills.In a move widely expected by City economists, the Bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC) voted by a majority to increase its key base rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.25% in response to living costs rising at the fastest annual rate for four decades. Continue reading...

Sharp share sell-off as retailer says inflation is giving customers second thoughts about purchases

Former Labour leader’s Peace and Justice Project to be part of new climate and social justice movementJeremy Corbyn, the former Labour leader, has teamed up with direct action campaigners to form a new “red/green” climate and social justice movement which aims to stage a “major wave of popular mass action” later this year.Corbyn’s Peace and Justice Project, which he set up in 2021, is joining forces with Just Stop Oil campaigners who have staged a series of disruptive climate actions over the past six months. Continue reading...

FCA calls for payment holidays and waiving interest charges for customers hit hardest by cost of living crisisThe City watchdog has warned UK lenders to do more to support struggling borrowers hit by the cost of living crisis, including offering payment holidays and waiving interest for some of the most at-risk customers.In a letter to more than 3,500 lenders, including major high street banks and buy nowpay later firms, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) said firms needed to respond “flexibly” and offer a range of options to support customers beyond arranging how to collect missed payments. Continue reading...

Banks are raising rates to bring down inflation but there is a risk to economic growthCentral banks around the world are pushing for the sharpest rise in interest rates in decades in response to soaring inflation.With living costs across advanced economies rising at the fastest annual rate since the 1980s, the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England and European Central Bank are taking aggressive action to cool inflationary pressure. Continue reading...

Ukraine war, China lockdowns and Brexit help push up inflation, with products that rely on wheat worst hitFood price rises in the UK could hit 15% this summer – the highest level in more than 20 years – with inflation lasting into the middle of next year, according to a report.Meat, cereals, dairy, fruit and vegetables are likely to be the worst affected as the war in Ukraine combines with production lockdowns in China and export bans on key food stuffs such as palm oil from Indonesia and wheat from India, the grocery trade body IGD warns. Continue reading...

Fed confirms 0.75 percentage-point increase as Americans across country hit hard by rising prices and shortages of key itemsWith soaring inflation and the shadow of recession hanging over the United States, the Federal Reserve announced a 0.75 percentage-point increase in interest rates on Wednesday – the largest hike since 1994.Until this week the Fed had been expected to announce a smaller increase. At a press conference, the Fed chair, Jerome Powell, said the central bank decided that a larger hike was needed after recent economic news, including last week’s announcement that inflation had risen to a 40-year high. Continue reading...