Online media company, which has seen its share price slump, blames economy for job lossesLadBible, one of the UK’s biggest online media success stories, is sacking 10% of its staff following a slump in its share price and a warning about tough trading conditions.The Manchester-based company blamed the state of the economy, which it variously attributed to the war in Ukraine, the hangover from Covid lockdowns and growing price inflation caused by “political instability”. Continue reading...
Measures too similar to tried, tested and failed tactics of past decadeSomewhere on the roads into north London, the suburbs turn into streets lined with the townhouses of the anti-growth coalition. As Liz Truss told the Conservative party conference last week, here live the “enemies of enterprise” who would hold Britain back.Forget that financial markets were thrown into a tailspin by her plans for the economy, pushing up mortgage costs to eye-watering levels. Forget that Britain under the Conservatives is on the brink of a prolonged recession with the highest rates of inflation for 40 years. Here was the real culprit: the pundits talking Britain down. Continue reading...
This gonzo economic theory continues to live on, notwithstanding its repeated failuresWithin weeks of taking office, Britain’s new prime minister, Liz Truss, and her chancellor of the exchequer, Kwasi Kwarteng, proposed a radical new set of economic measures that echoed the trickle-down policies of Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan – heavy on tax cuts for the rich and deregulation.Last Monday, after a backlash from investors, economists and members of his own party, Mr Kwarteng reversed one of the proposals, deciding against abolishing the tax rate of 45% on the highest earners. But proposals for other tax cuts worth tens of billions of pounds remain intact, as the government insists it is on the right path.Robert Reich, a former US secretary of labor, is professor of public policy at the University of California, Berkeley and the author of Saving Capitalism: For the Many, Not the Few and The Common Good. His new book, The System: Who Rigged It, How We Fix It, is out now. He is a Guardian US columnist. His newsletter is at robertreich.substack.com Continue reading...
I know we are in volatile financial times but let’s at least have a bit of linguistic variationYou would have thought that City types were hard-boiled, armour-plated folk, well used to all the financial vicissitudes that life could throw at them, but no. Just consider these headlines from past week: Bank of England quells market chaos after UK government spooks investors; Core inflation spooks markets; Joules tanks as insolvency talk spooks market. And that’s just a small selection. Quite clearly, City types are a bunch of poltroons. My point, though, is the ubiquity of “spook the market”. I know how hard it is to write punchy headlines, but I’m getting rather bored with this one and would heartily welcome a new variant. Thinking caps on please, fellow hacks.Wandering around my home town last week, I was struck by a couple of notices. The first, in the window of Holland & Barrett, was advertising for positions as “store colleagues”. Further light was shed on these mysterious entities on its website: “Our stores are the place where we can engage face-to-face with our customers and our skilled, trusted store colleagues are a vital part of our success. Wellness begins with you, start your journey today.” I’m sure they used to be known as shop assistants, but there you go. Job titles today, eh? Still, I’m glad they are going on a journey. Continue reading...
The PM and chancellor will try to stop panic spreading through the party after their high-risk economic plan threatens a ‘death spiral’The prime minister, Liz Truss, and the chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, will face the wrath of Tory MPs at a succession of crisis meetings in parliament this week as their high-risk economic policies hit their poll ratings and spread panic in all wings of the party.After a turbulent first five weeks at No 10 and an ill-disciplined, chaotic annual conference in Birmingham last week, Truss is expected to address the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers on Wednesday evening after taking on Keir Starmer at prime minister’s questions. Continue reading...
The chancellor is bound for Washington for talks with the organisation that blasted his mini-budget“Whenever there is change, there is disruption,” Liz Truss told the Conservative party conference last week. “And not everyone will be in favour.” This week, her chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, will fly out to Washington to meet at least one prominent critic.The main focus of the International Monetary Fund annual meetings in the US capital will undoubtedly be the way the world responds to a succession of shocks: the Covid pandemic, Russia’s war in Ukraine and global heating. Global economic growth is faltering amid sky-high inflation and more natural disasters are sweeping the planet, while there are serious divisions between leading nations. Continue reading...
How can the government build, build, build and hit net zero? Or, come to that, keep both the Bank and the OBR on its side?Are you against growth, Liz Truss asks in her speech to the Tory party conference. What about your credentials as a disruptor? Can you say, with a steady hand on your trusty sword, that you have cut through anything more than a pat of butter in the past few years, let alone weeks?Growth in all its guises should be positive for the economy. Growth promotes new jobs and incomes, says Truss. Disruption likewise. But when a government says it wants to build, build, build and at the same time achieve net zero carbon emissions, there are obvious contradictions. Continue reading...
by Gwyn Topham Transport correspondent on (#64GV7)
In Britain’s darkening economic climate, the expensive high speed rail project looks like an obvious target for further cutsAt first glance, the scarred earth in central Birmingham where HS2’s future Midlands terminus will stand has not changed greatly since 2018. Back then, before another Tory party conference, transport secretary Chris Grayling donned a hard hat to affirm that work was up and running, in front of bulldozers specially hauled in for a Sunday shift.Now, with the government set on fresh spending cuts, the vast outlay on the high-speed rail line has been called into question again as inflation bites. Facts on the ground will matter once more – and while the sweeping viaduct and new station at Birmingham’s Curzon Street exist only in CGI form above ground, foundations have been laid beneath. Continue reading...
High oil and gas revenues notwithstanding, Putin’s ability to fight is being eaten away as the months go byFears that Russia is navigating its way around sanctions are unfounded, according to experts who say Moscow is suffering a bigger hit than institutions such as the World Bank have been predicting.Some analysts have interpreted the strength of the rouble, the size of the warchest of cash available to Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin’s ability to redirect exports destined for Europe to willing southern neighbours as a signal that the arsenal of sanctions deployed against Moscow is failing to bite. Continue reading...
Cash is virtually worthless, it’s cheaper to cover walls with peso bills than to buy wallpaper, and simple shopping trips turn into expeditions to find the best deals … Photographer Irina Werning captures the chaosIrina Werning had to buy new batteries for her camera flash the other day. The Buenos Aires-based photographer first tried her local supermarket, but the price was too high. She went to an office supplies store, a corner shop, a kiosk, a tool shop, another supermarket. This small errand had become an expedition in circumventing spiralling prices in a country whose inflation rates are projected to reach triple figures by next year – among the highest in the world.“You grow used to it. Since I was born, there’s been inflation, even since before my father was born. It’s such a part of our daily life that it’s inside of us,” Werning says. “I am 46, and for 36 years of my life I’ve had double-digit inflation; on average, that’s 80% inflation every year.”Werning photographed her husband papering walls with 10-peso bills – which is cheaper than buying wallpaper. Her husband’s trousers are worn deliberately low, ‘to show how exposed and naked we are to inflation’ Continue reading...
At Euston picket line, RMT general secretary talks of ‘incompetence’ of new prime minister and chancellorUnion chief Mick Lynch has compared Liz Truss’s government to a “bad smell” as more than 40,000 RMT members joined a national rail strike on Saturday.Speaking at a picket line outside Euston station in London, the RMT general secretary criticised the “incompetence” of the new prime minister and chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, claiming it was only matched by their ego. Continue reading...
by Patrick Butler Social policy editor on (#64GC8)
Chancellor must top up budgets or face industrial action and further recruitment issues, thinktank warnsMore than 100,000 public sector workers would lose their jobs this year if the government refuses to fund higher than expected pay awards for nurses, doctors, teachers and care workers, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.The IFS said the chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, faced a choice of either topping up public sector budgets or accepting the likelihood of industrial action, further problems recruiting and retaining staff, and a decline in quality of services already under extreme strain. Continue reading...
by Presented by Katharine Murphy with Greg Jericho an on (#64G43)
Katharine Murphy speaks to economics writers Shane Wright and Greg Jericho about Great Britain’s trickle-down woes, looming dangers in the world economy, and the future of the stage three cuts Continue reading...
by Richard Partington Economics correspondent on (#64G22)
Predictions handed to chancellor expected to paint gloomy picture for UK economy amid sweeping tax cutsKwasi Kwarteng has been handed independent forecasts on the state of the UK finances that are expected to show a hole of more than £60bn left by his sweeping tax cuts and a sharply slowing growth outlook.At the end of a turbulent week for Liz Truss’s government, the chancellor was on Friday handed the initial predictions for the economy and public finances by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) which are likely to paint a gloomy picture. Continue reading...
Underfunding is the biggest challenge facing all providers in the sector, says John WadsworthZoe Williams brings up Liz Truss’s proposals to cut staff-to-child ratios as a solution to the funding crisis faced by both maintained and private, voluntary and independent (PVI) providers (Toddlers, stop your running around: Liz Truss is coming for you, 3 October).Truss put forward this idea in 2012 in the CentreForum thinktank paper Affordable Quality: New Approaches to Childcare, and the following year as undersecretary of state for education and childcare in the report More Great Childcare. Both documents are riddled with inaccuracies, which I detailed in 2013 in the article Like an ‘Uncontrolled Toddler’ Elizabeth Truss Risks Causing Chaos in England’s Nursery Education and Child Care Sector, published in the journal Forum. Continue reading...
On one side, oceans of wealth and power. On the other, precarity and powerlessness. But we have the tools for reformRising interest rates, a falling stock market, a seesaw in the price of gas, a high dollar and chaos in world finance – we see in all this, once again, the folly of trying to run the world’s largest economy through a central bank. It’s time to rethink the basics: what has happened in America? And what should be done?Adam Smith wrote: “Wealth, as Mr Hobbes says, is power.” Today in the United States we find islands of wealth and power on one side and an ocean of precarity and powerlessness, alongside poverty, on the other. This is a structural development over 50 years, the effect of politics and policies, but also of industrial change, globalization and new technologies, with intense regional, social, demographic and political implications.James K Galbraith holds the Lloyd M Bentsen Jr chair in government/business relations at the Lyndon B Johnson School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin. In the 1970s, he drafted the monetary policy oversight provisions of the original version of the Humphrey-Hawkins Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act Continue reading...
Jobs market growth has remained robust despite rising interest rates and fears of a recession, but how long it can maintain trajectory is unknownUS employers added 263,000 new jobs in September as the unemployment rate dipped to 3.5%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on Friday.The jobs market has shown signs of slowing recently after regaining all the jobs that were lost during the pandemic. September’s gain was down from the 315,000 jobs added in August and far lower than the 420,000 average monthly gain thus far in 2022. But growth has remained robust despite rising interest rates and growing fears of a recession. Continue reading...
ONS says soaring energy costs and supply chain problems forced 5,629 firms to go bust in second quarterThe number of company insolvencies in England and Wales hit a 13-year high in the three months to the end of June, as soaring energy costs forced a record number of firms out of business, according to official figures.There were 5,629 insolvencies in the second quarter, the highest since the third quarter of 2009 when the UK was in the grip of the global financial crisis, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. Continue reading...
by Richard Partington Economics correspondent on (#64FD1)
Business confidence sinks to lowest level since depth of Covid pandemic as rising costs hit households and companiesBritain’s economy is expected to take until 2024 to recover to pre-Covid levels amid a slowdown for hiring and business investment, as households and businesses struggle with soaring costs.Business leaders have said that there has been a significant decline of key economic indicators in recent weeks, with confidence among company bosses over the growth outlook collapsing to the lowest level since the depths of the Covid crisis. Continue reading...
BoE has spelt out what was at stake when events last week turned extreme, though surely not unimaginableIt was a close-run thing. That is a less-than-reassuring summary of the Bank of England’s analysis of its emergency intervention in the gilts market last week. Sir Jon Cunliffe, deputy governor for financial stability, spelled out what was at stake: “An excessive and sudden tightening of financing conditions for the real economy.” Translation: the current bout of turmoil in the mortgage market, for instance, would feel like a minor squall.Some of the numbers in Cunliffe’s 11-page letter to the Treasury select committee are extraordinary. Pension funds, facing demands to put up collateral to support their holdings in LDIs, or liability-driven investments, were looking at dumping £50bn of long-dated government debt in “a short space of time”. This is a market where daily trading volumes are just £12bn. Continue reading...
Exclusive: Free Market Forum suggests scrapping free childcare hours and abolishing corporation taxA free-market thinktank with close links to Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng has drawn up a blueprint of “slash and burn” ideas that could form the basis of the government’s supply-side reform programme to be set out in coming weeks.The document from the Free Market Forum (FMF), an offshoot of the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA), suggests scrapping free childcare hours, releasing green belt land for housing, abolishing corporation tax and dropping teacher training qualifications for graduates. Continue reading...
by Kalyeena Makortoff and Rupert Jones on (#64EAA)
Initiative may continue beyond December as bank bosses raise concerns over mortgage marketThe chancellor is considering extending the government’s mortgage guarantee scheme, after UK bank bosses raised concerns over the state of the UK’s mortgage market at a high-level meeting at No 11 Downing Street.The meeting on Thursday – which was attended by chief executives including Alison Rose of NatWest, Charlie Nunn of Lloyds Banking Group, HSBC UK’s Ian Stuart, Mike Regnier of Santander and TSB’s Robin Bulloch – was scheduled amid mounting fears about the potential fallout from rapidly rising mortgage rates. Continue reading...
The prime minister has identified a genuine problem with the UK economy – but she lacks the authority to fix it herselfEleven years ago, Ed Miliband made a party conference speech that must have seemed a great idea at the time. It was a denunciation of predatory capitalism that in retrospect seems very prescient, and went down well enough in the hall. It was only afterwards, when journalists started challenging him to name names, that things hit the buffers. Come on, then; if they’re so awful, who are they, these bastards ruining life for everyone? The minute his team hesitated, presumably afraid of being sued, the pack pounced. Is Rupert Murdoch a predatory capitalist? What about the guy who runs BHS? Or Sainsbury’s, or Next? A somewhat bruised Miliband ended up insisting the point was not to make “moral judgments about individuals”. It’s easy to generalise about your enemies but hard, it turns out, to be specific.Liz Truss has just fallen into a similar trap. The Conservative party audience clapped her attack on the “anti-growth coalition” she blamed for Tory failures to deliver over the last 12 years, because it was essentially a list of people they dislike: Scottish nationalists, Brexit deniers, north London liberals who say snide things about them on the BBC. It was only on contact with the real world that things began to fall apart.Gaby Hinsliff is a Guardian columnist Continue reading...
by Richard Partington Economics correspondent on (#64EJM)
Kristalina Georgieva points to ‘fundamental shift’, with fragile global ties and more frequent natural disastersThe world faces growing recession risks and a “fundamental shift” away from relative stability to an age of breakdown in international relations and more frequent natural disasters, the head of the International Monetary Fund has warned.Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF’s managing director, said a succession of economic shocks had unleashed persistently high inflation, prompting a cost of living crisis in countries around the world. Continue reading...
by Richard Partington Economics correspondent on (#64EFQ)
Official explains how promise to buy up to £65bn of government debt staved off destructive UK financial spiralPension funds managing vast sums on behalf of retired people across Britain came close to collapse amid an “unprecedented” meltdown in UK government bond markets after Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget, the Bank of England has said.Explaining its emergency intervention to calm turmoil in financial markets last week, the central bank said pension funds with more than £1tn invested in them came under severe strain with a “large number” in danger of going bust. Continue reading...
The UK thought it would be protected from the volatility seen in ‘developing’ countries. Now, cracks are beginning to appearIt has become fashionable among experts to compare Britain’s economy, once a global superpower, to that of an “emerging market”. The former US treasury secretary Larry Summers recently argued that the UK is “behaving a bit like an emerging market”. The Dutch bank ING stated the trading volatility of the pound mirrored what “you would expect during an emerging market currency crisis” . The American billionaire investor Ray Dalio has described the administration of the new prime minister, Liz Truss, as operating “like the government of an emerging country”.For those who live in Britain, it can be shocking to hear such labels applied to a “developed” country like our own. It runs counter to the history we were taught and the belief we were raised with: that as Britain was the birthplace of industrial capitalism, parliamentary democracy and the rule of law, it sits at the forefront of a linear path of development. Over the last two centuries, political thinkers from Karl Marx to Adam Smith shared the view that political and economic shifts first occurred in Britain and that the rest of the world would follow.Dr Kojo Koram teaches at the School of Law at Birkbeck, University of London Continue reading...
Billions needed for water and soil conservation to boost resilience in small farms, says new head of UN’s agricultural financing armIn his first week in the job, the new head of the UN’s agricultural finance fund admits he has no small task ahead. Alvaro Lario takes up the role as head of the International Fund for Agricultural Development amid a global food crisis, which he warned could become a regular occurrence.Lario wants the IFAD to focus on investing in the resilience of small-scale farmers so they can produce food for themselves and are not left at the mercy of external shocks. Continue reading...
by Richard Partington Economics correspondent on (#64DZB)
For every £1 given workers by cutting tax rates £2 was being taken via freeze on income tax thresholds, thinktank calculatesMillions of households are facing a “stealth” tax raid under Liz Truss’s government despite her promise to support workers through the cost-of-living crisis by lowering their tax bills, Britain’s leading economic thinktank said on Thursday.The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has calculated that for every £1 given to workers by cutting headline tax rates, £2 was being taken away through a freeze on the level at which people begin paying tax on their earnings. Continue reading...
This live blog has now closed, you can read more about the Conservative party conference hereIn his Today interview Gordon Brown also warned that he did not think the financial crisis was over. Rising interest rates could clobber institutions in the “shadow banking” sector, he suggested. He told the programme:You’ve got problems with inflation, potentially problems with liquidity and solvency amongst companies. And you’ve got the potential for markets to be dysfunctional.And I would be worried about the shadow banking - that’s the non-bank financial sector in this country.It’s divisive because we’re not in this together any more. It’s anti-work because 40% of those who would suffer are people on low pay in work. It’s anti-family because five million children would be in poverty.And I think most of all, it’s immoral. It’s asking the poor to bear the burden for the crisis that we face in this country and for mistakes that other people have made, and it’s a scar on the soul of our country, it’s a stain on our conscience … Continue reading...
Oil cartel and allies including Russia make biggest cut in output since the start of the pandemic, despite pressure from the White HouseTesco’s fuel sales surged by over 38% in the last six months, due to rising prices and higher demand.That lifted its revenues from petrol and diesel to £4.28bn, up from just over £3bn a year earlier. Continue reading...
Cartel curbs production by 2m barrels a day despite strong US pressure, further squeezing suppliesThe Opec oil cartel and its allies have agreed to a bigger than expected cut in oil production targets despite significant pressure from the US.The Opec+ group of oil-producing nations signed up to a cut in output of 2m barrels a day, surpassing predictions earlier in the week of cuts of 1m to 1.5m barrels, squeezing supplies in a tight market. Continue reading...
IMF says taking swift action to achieve 25% cut in greenhouse gases by end of decade will cost less than failing to actVital steps to reduce greenhouse gases by 25% by the end of the decade will lead to lower growth and higher inflation but the costs of inaction would be far greater, the International Monetary Fund has said.The IMF said decades of procrastination meant what could have been a smooth transition to decarbonised economies would now be more challenging, and the world had to cut fossil fuel use by a quarter in eight years to have a chance of hitting the global climate crisis goals set in Paris in 2015. Continue reading...
Just as the neoliberals took advantage of the mess of the 70s, so the left can offer its own radical solutions for today’s turmoilWhen Liz Truss and her chancellor drew up the policies that crashed the pound and threatened pension funds, they were working to a blueprint devised in the Hotel du Parc of Mont-Pèlerin in 1947.Among those gathered were the economists Friedrich Hayek and Milton Friedman and the philosopher Karl Popper, and they were profoundly depressed. “The central values of civilisation are in danger,” they declared, caused by a “decline of belief in private property and the competitive market” after the Great Depression and world wars. They fleshed out a belief that the state and collectivism were mortal threats to the individual’s ability to succeed: Margaret Thatcher and her would-be torchbearer Truss would come to follow it with zeal.Owen Jones is a Guardian columnist Continue reading...
The Tory party’s reliance on trickle-down economics will leave society poorer, says Richard Tudway of the Centre for International Economics. Plus letters from Malcolm Stanton, David Plumpton and Joan FriendYanis Varoufakis offers an unsparing analysis of the delusional aspirations of the Tory political elites who control our destinies (Trickle-down Truss is carrying on the dirty work of Thatcher, Blair and Osborne, 1 October). The “doom loop” analysis says it all. Thatcherite ideological baggage is being dusted down by Liz Truss and co and presented as a solution to deep-seated problems of the governance and accountability of British state and enterprise. He might also have mentioned the dysfunctional first-past-the-post electoral system that sustains it all.Reliance on “trickle-down” economics will only deliver further tragic setbacks. There will be benefits for the wealthier classes, but a further collapse of state-funded institutions and loss of real incomes will leave the rest of society poorer. It guarantees the continuing systemic failure of the British economy. The ideologies of the Tory party are bankrupt and ruinous for the vast majority of our citizens. Time to learn from our failures and move on.
Pension and insurance company says it has not been a forced seller of government bondsLegal & General, one of the UK’s largest pension and insurance firms, has sought to reassure investors, days after its pension fund clients were hit by sudden interest rate rises and market volatility.In a trading update to the stock market, the company said market volatility had increased significantly in the second half of the year, but it had not experienced any difficulties in meeting its collateral calls, and had not been a forced seller of bonds or UK government debt, known as gilts. Continue reading...
UK production industry could record extra-boost from US companies seeking overseas filming locations and production facilitiesThe UK’s film and TV production industry could receive an almost £3bn increase in investment by Hollywood studios and streaming companies annually by 2025, as the pound’s decline against the dollar in recent months makes Britain a bargain location for shooting big-budget movies and TV series.The UK production industry is enjoying a post-Covid boom with a record £5.6bn spent in the past year, making films such as Tom Cruise’s action title Mission: Impossible 7 and dramas including Bridgerton and Star Wars: Andor. Continue reading...
Despite scrapping the 45p tax rate, the government is clinging to £43bn of tax cuts. Public services and those on benefits will feel the painAfter the right turn, the U-turn. Despite abandoning his top rate tax cut, the chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, has left £43bn of his £45bn tax cuts intact. A panicked overnight climbdown does not add up to a change in strategy. He is still doubling the tax-free giveaways to those with share options, cutting £1bn from tax on dividends and sanctioning a free-for-all in bankers’ bonuses. He is also going ahead with his tax avoiders’ charter: £2bn for employees who are able to declare themselves self-employed. Still in place is the £2bn he set aside for tax-free shopping for foreign tourists and the £19bn of corporation tax cuts, which Rishi Sunak claimed did nothing for investment; and by continuing to reject a new windfall tax, the chancellor might as well be handing over billions to the oil and gas tycoons.Kwarteng’s meeting with the Office for Budget Responsibility on Friday will have killed off his belief that he could pay for his tax cuts by conjuring up 2.5% annual growth. So after the crash comes the bloodbath: an onslaught of public spending cuts bigger than Osborne’s austerity or the IMF cuts of 1976 – so severe that they will impede rather than spur growth, ruin education and undermine our most precious asset, the NHS. Lying ahead, as inflation erodes the value of departmental budgets is, according to the Resolution Foundation, a public spending cut by 2026 of between £37bn and £47bn, the equivalent of closing every English school. While the prime minister has ruled out changes to the triple lock on pensions, the typical family on universal credit – already around £1,500 short as a result of last October’s £20 a week cut and April’s lower-than-inflation uprating – will now see their losses rise to £2,000 a year if benefits are linked to earnings and not prices. No family I know can afford to lose so much.Gordon Brown was UK prime minister from 2007 to 2010 Continue reading...
by Presented by Hannah Moore with Heather Stewart; pr on (#64BF0)
After delivering a mini-budget that caused financial mayhem, the chancellor backtracked on his headline tax cut – but has the political and economic damage already been done? Heather Stewart reportsOn Friday 23 September, the new chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, got to his feet in the House of Commons to deliver what he called a “fiscal event”. It was an attempt to present himself to the country and show the financial markets that with the arrival of himself and Liz Truss, Britain was under new management.The result was spectacular: the pound crashed in value to a record low, Britain’s borrowing costs shot up and the bottom nearly fell out of the pension industry. The Bank of England was forced to step in with a rescue plan and even the IMF suggested a rethink was in order. Continue reading...