Resolving US-China trade war is not enough to ward off what many fear is a looming worldwide recessionIt is only a matter of time until the escalating tensions between China and the US prompt many more economists to warn of an impending global economic recession coupled with financial instability. On 5 August, Bloomberg News said that the yield curve, a closely watched market metric, “Blares Loudest US Recession Warning Since 2007”. And Larry Summers, a former US treasury secretary who was also closely involved in crisis-management efforts in 2008-09, recently tweeted: “We may well be at the most dangerous financial moment … since 2009.”Many economists argue that resolving US-China trade tensions is the best way to avoid significant global economic and financial disruption. Yet, while necessary, this would be far from sufficient.Related: Globalisation as we know it will not survive Trump. And that’s a good thing | Larry Elliott Continue reading...

New Economics Foundation says putting money in workers’ pockets will raise productivityGiving workers more public holidays and raising their wages could boost the strength of the British economy, according to a report.The New Economics Foundation said that driving up the spending power of consumers would give firms a greater incentive to raise their productivity, as they could have greater confidence there would be demand for their products and services.Productivity is an economic measure of the efficiency of a workforce. It typically measures the level of output per hour of work, or per worker. Continue reading...

Chancellor Sajid Javid faces a diverse list of runners but under this government it may not pay to put money on a safe betThe moment is fast arriving when Sajid Javid will choose Mark Carney’s replacement as the governor of the Bank of England, and Westminster is alive with speculation.One of Javid’s first requests on being made chancellor was to be brought up to speed on the runners and riders for the Threadneedle Street race, although the official Treasury line is that an announcement will be made in the autumn.Related: Bank of England: No-deal Brexit could cause 'significant' market turmoil - business live Continue reading...

Brexit-related recession looks ever more likely, and with their poor investment levels, UK firms are worse-placed than many to withstand the shockDowning Street must add the likelihood of a UK recession to its list of possible scenarios after official figures showed that the economy contracted in the second quarter by 0.2%.The prospect of a further decline in GDP in the third quarter, which would make a recession official and might be clearly on the cards before the 31 October Brexit deadline, should dominate the prime minister’s deliberations.UK companies have borrowed heavily since the crash, but most of the money was used to pay generous dividends, rather than being ploughed into new equipment Continue reading...

Johnson may have come to power by legitimate means, but his language and actions in No 10 have been disturbing indeedI continue to recommend re-reading Joseph Heller’s great novel Catch-22 for those of us who want to avoid being driven crazy by this Brexit farce.As we are told that the cabinet is operating on a “war footing” and that frantic preparations are made for the austerity and hardship that would follow no deal, my mind goes back to the shortages I witnessed as a small boy during and after the second world war.With the world economy losing steam, the trade and currency war between America and China could get much nastier Continue reading...

Visitors to Manhattan are finding that several retail landmarks are fading fastThere is a lot to do in Manhattan – but shopping? Maybe not so much these days. Once one of the hottest markets on the planet, New York’s retail sector is suffering.Surveying the empty storefronts on Fifth Avenue, holidaymaker Gill Stewart, from Stokesley in Yorkshire, said she was surprised by the number of vacancies. “We’ve come across a few places that are empty or under refurbishment, certainly many more than we expected,” she said. As the family wondered which direction to go in, Stewart noted that her teenage children, Nathan and Eleanor, weren’t even clamouring to visit the shops. Continue reading...

Brexit uncertainty has acted like a handbrake on business activity and dictating corporate cautionWhen Boris Johnson became prime minister he said the “doubters, doomsters, gloomsters” had got Britain wrong.After that first speech on the steps of Downing Street, the prime minister faces an early test, with official figures suggesting the economy is on the cusp of recession.Gross domestic product (GDP) measures the total value of activity in the economy over a given period of time.Related: The dramatic drop in sterling is only a taste of what is to come | Sam Gyimah Continue reading...

It would be naive to think social and economic decisions do not bear on the timing and numbers of births that couples choose, says Allan G Hill. Plus Roger Plenty points out that having one fewer child saves 58.6 tonnes of CO-equivalent per yearGaby Hinsliff (Journal, 3 August) is right to insist that the ultimate decision on numbers of children is in the hands of women and their partners but ignores the many ways that any modern state already makes so many of the rules regarding sex and reproduction. Just think of all the rights and allowances that determine the length of maternity leave, resuming work, flexible working, equal pay and the like. Then, there are decisions by states to subsidise or not the costs of childcare, including all the costs of education from pre-school to university and college. Throughout, there are rules and regulations about which maternity and childcare services are state- or authority-provided.Couples reproduce in such economic and regulatory environments and it would be naive to think that such powerful social and economic decisions do not bear on the timing and numbers of births they choose. A declining population is not in anyone’s interest, reducing the pool of new talent in the next generation and encouraging an imbalance between those concerned with the cost of TV licences and others eager to see young innovators moving through our age cohorts. Continue reading...

A 0.2% contraction between April and June is first fall in GDP in six and a half years

GDP shrank by 0.2% in the second quarter amid manufacturing slump

Carmakers face perfect storm of EU exit uncertainty and weaker demand in ChinaWith British manufacturing contracting sharply in the second quarter, industrial firms large and small are under pressure. Nowhere is that more the case than in the car industry, which is contending with a backlash against diesel and weaker demand in China that has coincided with Brexit uncertainty stifling investment.The “perfect storm” for carmakers has quickly been passed down the supply chain, according to David Caro, the owner of Qualplast, a Birmingham-based maker of flock coatings for car parts such as glove compartments and coin trays in vehicles made by Jaguar Land Rover, Nissan and Bentley. The company, which employs 17 people, has seen a fall in orders from some of its major customers as they adjust to lower sales.One of the two main definitions of recession in the UK is at least two quarters of negative economic growth. Judged by this yardstick, the UK was last in recession in 2008-09, when there were six consecutive quarters of negative growth. Continue reading...

Despite what critics say, many economists are focused on real-world problems such as mental health and the climate crisis

The markets are spooked, but we need a new world order which makes room for local solutions and the nation stateThe significance of the trade war between China and the US goes well beyond the impact of tit-for-tat tariffs, or which of two self-styled strongmen wins the bragging rights. As was the case in the 1930s, the seemingly inexorable drift towards protectionism is part of a deeper crisis of the international status quo. When Beijing this week accused the US of “deliberately destroying the international order”, it was really saying that US hegemony will no longer go unchallenged. Globalisation as we have known it is coming to an end and that’s by no means unwelcome.Related: China accuses US of 'deliberately destroying' world order Continue reading...

Sales of cars and machine parts to far east fall as US–China trade conflict takes its tollGerman industrial production has suffered its biggest annual decline in nine years after the escalating trade war between the US and China took its toll on exports.Europe’s economic engine, which has increasingly relied on exports to Asia to bolster factory output, was left teetering on the edge of recession in the second quarter after a 1.5% fall in industrial production in June, which is expected to be repeated in July.Related: China's yuan sinks amid fears Beijing may give up on US trade talks Continue reading...

Rise comes amid concerns over US-China trade conflict and European marketsThe price of gold has risen to $1,500 an ounce (£1,234.45 at market rates on Wednesday) for the first time in six years as investors seek shelter in low-risk assets amid concerns about the global economy.The spot gold price rose 1.75% to $1,500.29, its highest level since 2013, taking the metal’s gains this year to 17%.“Three more Central Banks cut rates.” Our problem is not China - We are stronger than ever, money is pouring into the U.S. while China is losing companies by the thousands to other countries, and their currency is under siege - Our problem is a Federal Reserve that is too.........proud to admit their mistake of acting too fast and tightening too much (and that I was right!). They must Cut Rates bigger and faster, and stop their ridiculous quantitative tightening NOW. Yield curve is at too wide a margin, and no inflation! Incompetence is a.........terrible thing to watch, especially when things could be taken care of sooo easily. We will WIN anyway, but it would be much easier if the Fed understood, which they don’t, that we are competing against other countries, all of whom want to do well at our expense! Continue reading...

Tweet in support of US farmers suggests dispute with Beijing could extend well into 2020Donald Trump has dropped the broadest possible hint that he is ready to dig in for the long term in the Washington’s trade war with China, after the latest escalation in the long-running dispute between the world’s two largest economies.The US president said he was ready to provide support for US farmers in 2020 should they face pressure from China, as economists at Goldman Sachs said the standoff could continue until after the US presidential election in November 2020.As they have learned in the last two years, our great American Farmers know that China will not be able to hurt them in that their President has stood with them and done what no other president would do - And I’ll do it again next year if necessary! Continue reading...

While nurses beg on TV for pay rises and neighbours feud about benefits, the wealthy continue to take without givingThink of a football stadium. Not one of the vast caverns like Old Trafford or Wembley, but somewhere rather smaller and more bijou. Somewhere like Fulham’s Craven Cottage, which, once its new stand is completed, will pack in only about 30,000 fans. Now imagine this stadium of 30,000 souls rising up into the air and hovering unnoticed over central London. Thirty thousand men in late middle-age living the high life with the capital at their feet – and there, stuck way below on terra firma are their 66 million fellow Britons, tearing lumps out of each other.Congratulations: you’ve just pictured the central problem stalking the UK today. Not Brexit. Not the breakdown in civil debate. Not the dark money contaminating Westminster. These are urgent and vitally important, but there is one big factor that forms a large part of the backdrop to all of them. It can be summed up by that gulf between a mid-sized football stadium of super-rich men in their 50s, and the rest of us spread out across our suburbs, our towns, our unpretty stretches of urban sprawl.Related: London is increasingly home to the top 1% by income, study findsRelated: Working class versus minorities? That’s looking at it the wrong way | Kenan Malik Continue reading...

Readers respond to recent Guardian articles on environmental issuesJohn Vidal hit the nail on the head by linking Meghan and Harry’s choice to limit their family size for the sake of the climate to the lack of access many women globally have to services that would enable them to make the same choice (Having kids is bad for the planet. So are the royal jets, 1 August). Vidal highlighted that “many in areas of high growth want fewer children but cannot access contraception”, and as CEO of a global organisation providing women and girls with access to family planning, I agree. More than 214 million women and girls worldwide are unable to access contraception. Yet we know that when they have access to contraception and safe abortion, they often choose, like Meghan, to have smaller families.Women are increasingly and disproportionately bearing the burden of the climate crisis. It often falls on women to care for growing families in worsening conditions. Droughts mean limited access to food and water. Rising sea levels lead to floods. Humans and animals are competing for dwindling resources, especially in countries that contribute least to global carbon emissions. Continue reading...

Luxury chain made famous by Sex and the City has debts of up to $500mBarneys New York, the US luxury department store chain made famous by Sex and the City, has filed for bankruptcy and put itself up for sale.The retailer, which first opened its doors in New York in 1923, said it would close 15 of its 22 stores, including flagship branches in Chicago, Las Vegas and Seattle, five small concept outlets and seven Barneys Warehouse discount stores. Barneys’ flagship shops on New York’s Madison Avenue, and in Beverly Hills, San Francisco and Boston, are to remain open.Related: Bankruptcy for Barneys? Symbol of New York luxe faces uncertain future Continue reading...

Trade war rhetoric ratchets up as Beijing responds to US claim of being ‘a currency manipulator’China stepped up the trade war rhetoric on Tuesday, accusing the US of “deliberately destroying international order” with “unilateralism and protectionism”.A day after Washington branded China a currency manipulator in a rapidly escalating trade dispute, China’s central bank said it “deeply regretted” the move by the US and said such behaviour “seriously undermined international rules” and damaged the global economy.Related: Chinese state media accuse US of 'destroying international order' – business live Continue reading...

Total sales increase by 0.3%, according to data compiled by the British Retail ConsortiumBritish retailers have recorded the worst month for sales in July since records began, as consumers tighten their belts with Brexit approaching.According to British Retail Consortium sales data compiled by the accountancy firm KPMG, total sales increased by 0.3% in July, compared with a rise of 1.6% in July last year. Continue reading...

Concerns over full-scale currency war as Trump renews attack on ChinaFinancial markets around the world have fallen sharply amid growing fears that the US-China trade dispute could escalate into a full-scale currency war, with damaging consequences for the world economy.The roots of the dispute come from US president Donald Trump’s “America first” project to protect the US’ position as the world’s leading economy, while encouraging businesses to hire more workers in the US and to manufacture their products there.Related: Global markets take fright as Trump ramps up US-China trade war Continue reading...

Weak wage growth and years of austerity mean Brexit downturn will be harder for poorLow-income households in Britain are more vulnerable to recession than they were before the financial crisis, the Resolution Foundation has warned, amid the mounting risks of a Brexit downturn.According to the thinktank, a decade of weak wage growth has left the poorest UK households and middle-income families less prepared for another downturn. It also warned the gradual dismantling of the benefits system under the policy of austerity imposed over the past decade by Conservative-led governments has left people without the same degree of support. Continue reading...

New PM has changed UK tactics of chicken while US and China battle to see who blinks firstTwo cars are hurtling towards each other down a narrow country lane. Both have the option to pull over but neither driver wants to give way first. What happens next?This is the sort of scenario that lies at the heart of game theory, the use of models to show how rational decision-makers interact with each other. Game theory is big in economics and, in the current circumstances, that’s hardly surprising because two key political issues lend themselves to game theory analysis.Related: When Trump turns up the heat on trade, Americans will feel it tooXi Jinping thinks Donald Trump will be wary of spooking the stock market Continue reading...

Until now, the US has tried to avoid hurting consumers when imposing tariffs. From next month, they will be fully exposedThe timing could not be better. On 1 September 1939, German troops crossed the border into Poland, triggering the start of the second world war. Eighty years to the day later, on 1 September 2019, Donald Trump plans to impose a 10% tariff on a fresh range of Chinese imports into the US. If that happens, it will mark the moment when trade’s cold war turns hot.Make no mistake, the unexpected announcement threatens to have serious consequences. Up until now, the Chinese goods targeted for tariffs have been carefully selected to avoid hurting consumers. That is no longer the case. From next month, almost everything China sends to the US will be affected. In bald terms, that means Americans are going to be paying more for their smartphones, laptops and clothes. Trump boasts that the US is going to be “taxing the hell out of China” but he has got the economics completely wrong. The taxes will be paid by Americans faced with paying more for imports.China is waiting to see whether someone with less protectionist instincts wins the race for the White House next year Continue reading...

Boris Johnson’s plan for expansionist borrowing is far less economically literate than Gordon Brown’s was 10 years agoWhen confronted with an uncertain future, writers who claim to have seen through a window into the next decade find it easier than usual to make the bestseller lists.Some futurology books are gloomy and some are optimistic. Britain’s prime minister probably did not read any of them before coming to the conclusion that a strong sense of belief and a sunny disposition could cure most ills.Banks have the reserves to lend to small and medium-sized businesses: sadly, there are no takers Continue reading...

Our global economy should serve rather than dominate people – and that includes factoring in the climate crisis, tooSomething is killing conventional economics and it’s probably an inside job. Reliance on abstract mathematics and absurd assumptions has brought the discipline into disrepute, even if politics and policy are guided by the ghosts of its teaching.Nobody was surprised recently to learn that the price of the overdue and over-budget HS2 high-speed rail project could rise by another £30bn. People were surprised to learn, however, that in the cost-benefit analysis used to justify the original project, planners assumed that no passengers work while on a train. That made the times savings on the new line look more valuable than they really were.Related: What happens when ordinary people learn economics? | Aditya ChakraborttyRelated: While economic growth continues we’ll never kick our fossil fuels habit | George Monbiot Continue reading...

US president has threatened to impose a new 10% tariff on $300bn of Chinese goods

Markets fell sharply as Trump threatens fresh tariffs; US non-farm payrolls matched economists’ expectations in July, while June figures were revised down

The US is threatening to impose tariffs on a further $300bn of Chinese goods

Wall Street, Asian markets and oil fall after president’s tweet about placing tariffs on practically all remaining China tradeDonald Trump’s surprise decision to escalate the trade war with tariffs on another $300bn of Chinese goods has sent global financial markets into a tailspin.After sharp falls on Wall Street in the wake of the US president’s announcement on Twitter on Thursday, Asian share prices plummeted on Friday morning as growing hopes that the world’s two economic superpowers would be able to reach a deal were dashed.Related: Trump's threat of new China tariffs sparks backlash from US retailersHere's your chart of the day. Trump's tariffs now cover virtually all of U.S. imports from China.

For years, councils have been starved of resources. The resulting crisis in public services is matched by a crisis of democracySome people think Britain’s greatest challenge is the impending Brexit. They are wrong. Britain’s greatest challenge is the impending collapse in its local public services. I recently travelled to cities in France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany. The contrast to Britain was stark. Of course surface impressions can be deceptive, but I was struck by the absence of piles of litter, potholed streets, screaming police cars, tacky ads on roundabouts and graffiti. There were also fewer desperate people pleading for money. I felt I was briefly in a civilised continent. The difference is that in continental Europe, these matters are at the discretion of local people, the mayor and electors. As they get richer, they reasonably expect, vote for and pay locally for better services. In Britain they are not allowed to do this. So they get worse.Over the “austerity” decade since 2010, British government has stripped localities of a great chunk of their centrally supplied resources. What is left is spent on statutory services such as social care, schools and roads. Local government has become an instrument of the centre. Money has steadily dried up for discretionary activities, such as youth clubs, old people’s homes, children’s agencies, drug treatment centres, homeless shelters, libraries, cleaner streets and public gardens. Successive chancellors have treated impoverished councils’ pleas with contempt and cavalier disregard.Related: Police chief: cuts must be reversed to fix 'social fabric' and stop gangsRelated: Austerity to blame for 130,000 ‘preventable’ UK deaths – report Continue reading...

Latest inflation report assumes smooth transition to UK-EU deal, but markets take different viewWhat if Napoleon had won the battle of Waterloo? What if Lord Halifax rather than Churchill had become prime minister in May 1940? To the “what if” history book could soon be added a new chapter – “what if” the UK had exited the EU with a deal in October 2019?That, despite everything that has been happening at Westminster in the past week, remains the assumption of the Bank of England. In its last inflation report before the Brexit deadline, the Bank said its base case was a smooth transition to a UK-EU trade deal. Its projections do not include the possibility of a no-deal exit.Boris Johnson, prime ministerRelated: Bank of England holds interest rates as it cuts growth outlook – business live Continue reading...

The PM wants to put rocket boosters on the British economy. It sounds thrilling, but what does ‘boosterism’ really mean?Asked this week what his new economic policy was, Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson replied: “Boosterism!” He wanted to put “rocket boosters” on the British economy, as a way of “turbocharging” it. Turbocharging (in aviation, originally “turbo-supercharging”) sounds perfectly thrilling, as long as the vehicle one turbocharges is not heading straight for a concrete wall. But is it quite the same as “boosterism”?A rocket “booster” is the massive first stage of a multipart rocket, such as the Saturn V that delivered the Apollo 11 astronauts to the moon. But the verb “to boost”, as well as meaning “to steal” in thieves’ cant, has also long meant to support or encourage. And so “boosterism”, since 1926, is the act of talking something up, whether it be a dodgy stock or one’s own reputation, a new invention or a country. (Some leftwing intellectuals during the cold war were accused of “Soviet boosterism”.) Continue reading...

MPC votes 9-0 to keep interest rates at 0.75% as uncertainty drags down the UK economyBritain has a one in three chance of plunging into recession at the start of next year as the heightened uncertainty over Brexit drags down the economy, the Bank of England has warned.The central bank said business investment was stalling, with trade tensions and slowing demand in the global economy also having an impact on UK growth.Related: Pound sinks to fresh low against dollar amid no-deal Brexit fears Continue reading...

Welcome to the land of warped priority, where the Tories can find money for ruinous policies – but not for hungry familiesYou can tell a lot about a person by their priorities. It’s true with friends – say, the mate who ditches your birthday drinks for a date – but take a look at British politics, and it’s increasingly the case with ministers, or even the country.Related: More than 4m in UK are trapped in deep poverty, study findsRelated: The Lib Dems are deeply stained by austerity. Don’t trust them | Frances Ryan Continue reading...

As the chancellor announces a further £2.1bn to prepare for a no-deal Brexit, we look again at what crashing out could mean for BritainThe Treasury this week announced a further £2.1bn in to get the country ready; it said the money would be used to “accelerate preparations at the border, support business readiness and ensure the supply of critical medicines.” Continue reading...

Donald Trump has been pushing for it, but the real problem lies with the man in charge – Jerome PowellDonald Trump got less than he wanted. Wall Street was unimpressed. Both the White House and the financial markets see the first cut in US interest rates in more than a decade as a taste of more to come. And they are right.Announcing its quarter-point cut, the Federal Reserve said the decision was warranted by global developments – shorthand for Trump’s trade wars – and muted inflationary pressure. The idea is that this is an insurance policy against the risk of a possible recession. Continue reading...

Fed chief Jerome Powell ‘let us down’, says Trump amid disappointment that rates were not cut harderThe US Federal Reserve has cut interest rates for the first time in more than a decade and signalled its readiness to provide more support as growth slows in the world’s largest economy.The US central bank cut its key benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, to a range of 2%-2.25%, in the first reduction in borrowing costs since immediately after the financial crisis a decade ago. Continue reading...

When you are dealing with a rare disorder like Rett syndrome, invariably the GP has never heard of it, writes Becky Jenner. And Dr Kirsten Lamb writes that GPs always intend to provide excellent care but most have had little training in learning disabilityAs CEO of the national charity Rett UK, which supports families affected by the rare and devastating neurological disorder Rett syndrome, and mum to 24-year-old Rosie who has Rett syndrome, I fully support the case for learning disabilities doctors (Letters, 27 July). Hospital admissions are extremely stressful for people with complex needs and their families. When you are dealing with a disorder like Rett syndrome, invariably the GP has never heard of it; a paediatrician may recall reading about it in a textbook. Wikipedia seems to be their preferred choice for a quick whistle-stop tour – about as helpful as a chocolate teapot. The parent has to become the expert.Once young people leave the relative comfort of children’s services where their care is overseen by a specialist community paediatrician, their care is transferred to their GP. The GP will have had very little to do with this young person up to this point. Transition still remains hugely problematic – often described by families as a “cliff edge”. This is largely because the key missing piece in the jigsaw is one person who will take the lead in providing holistic, coordinated care and treatment. A learning disability doctor is that person. Someone who has had the training, has the interest and motivation to champion the care for people with learning disabilities. Someone who understands that you cannot treat one area in isolation without having an understanding of how it can impact on other co-morbidities.

The outgoing ECB chief is locking his successor into a new phase of expansionary monetary policyExpectations – and, for many economists, rather bad ones – have been confirmed: the European Central Bank has decided to inflate the eurozone. Following the ECB’s latest policy meeting on 25 July, the outgoing president Mario Draghi made it clear that the bank’s seemingly harmless inflation target of 1.9% will in fact be the basis for a new phase of expansionary monetary policy over the next few years. This will go well beyond the ECB’s stimulus measures to date and is likely to pose further risks to the European economy.We should remember that the Maastricht treaty assigned the ECB the single, non-negotiable goal of maintaining stable prices, which, if taken literally, would mean an inflation rate of zero. This is very different from the mandate given to other central banks. The introduction of the euro, however, caused interest rates in southern Europe to fall, leading to an inflationary bubble that raised annual price growth to well over 2% in some countries. The ECB’s governing council then argued that the goal of price stability could not be achieved exactly and also pointed to several measurement errors that complicate policymaking. So, the authorities said, they would tolerate average inflation of up to 2% for the eurozone as a whole. Continue reading...

As a no-deal Brexit looms sterling is starting a steep slide and growth is stalling

Two former members of Bank of England’s rate-setting committee on Britain’s economic prospects

Each month we look at key indicators to see what effect the Brexit process has had on growth, prosperity and trade

Mass protests triggered by leaked text messages have led to the resignation of Ricardo Rosselló. Oliver Laughland discusses his time on the island. And: Larry Elliott on why sterling is at a 28-month lowHundreds of thousands of people have lined the streets of Puerto Rico over the past couple of weeks in some of the largest demonstrations in the US territory’s history. They began in response to hundreds of pages of leaked text messages between the governor, Ricardo Rosselló, and 11 members of his inner circle, which made homophobic and sexist jokes and mocked the victims of Hurricane Maria.However, the problems go further back than July. The Rosselló administration has been plagued by allegations of corruption and mismanagement during the response to Hurricane Maria. Shortly before the messages were leaked, the FBI arrested five former government officials and contractors accused of misappropriating millions of dollars in federal funds given to the island after the disaster. Continue reading...

Business reiterates importance of frictionless trade with EU as foreign minister heads to AsiaBusiness groups have stressed the importance of continued frictionless trade with the EU after Dominic Raab used his first overseas trip as foreign secretary to urge UK firms to “raise their game” and focus more on exporting to other regions.Organisations including the CBI and Make UK, which represents the manufacturing sector, said that while British companies had already expanded to countries across the globe, exports to the EU accounted for almost half of the total. Continue reading...

US president sends series of tweets and suggests agreement might be delayedMarkets have fallen sharply across Europe after Donald Trump reignited trade war fears with a series of tweets attacking China’s handling of negotiations with the US.With a two-day meeting between the countries’ trade teams due to begin in Shanghai, the US president said China’s economy was “doing very badly” and added negotiators “just don’t come through” on agreements, including promises to buy US farm goods.China is doing very badly, worst year in 27 - was supposed to start buying our agricultural product now - no signs that they are doing so. That is the problem with China, they just don’t come through. Our Economy has become MUCH larger than the Chinese Economy is last 3 years.......to ripoff the USA, even bigger and better than ever before. The problem with them waiting, however, is that if & when I win, the deal that they get will be much tougher than what we are negotiating now...or no deal at all. We have all the cards, our past leaders never got it! Continue reading...

Money markets did not take a disorderly departure seriously, but do now. So should JohnsonBritish holidaymakers heading abroad for their summer holidays might not thank him for it, but the fall in the value of the pound to its lowest level in 28 months is evidence that Boris Johnson’s Brexit strategy is having an impact.The currency markets never took the idea seriously that the UK would leave the EU without a deal when Theresa May was prime minister. That has changed in the past five days as the new government has rammed home the message that the 31 October deadline for departure is set in stone.Related: No-deal Brexit: how likely is it and what would be the impact?Related: No, a falling pound is not good. It’s a sign of weakness and decline | Dan Davies Continue reading...

Britain has a vocal weak-currency lobby but depreciation is not a route to long-term success, as Italy could tell youLike the weather, the foreign exchange market changes every day and appears at the end of the evening news. Unlike the weather, though, the external value of the pound isn’t directly experienced by most people, except when they go on holiday. This creates something of a cognitive vacuum – into which a lot of politicised folk theories seem to get sucked and which makes the exchange rate one of our lowest-quality debates. Now the pound has reached its lowest level against the dollar for two years as the market starts taking the possibility of no-deal Brexit seriously, meaning that sterling makes a rare appearance as a leading news story.On the one hand, there’s a tendency to regard the exchange rate as akin to the national share price, and to take pride in the fact that one pound buys more than one unit of nearly every currency in the world, apart from a few oil state dinars. On the other hand, the UK has a surprisingly vocal weak-currency lobby, based on memories of past episodes of tight interest-rate policy and of the squeeze placed on our manufacturing exports back in the 1980s, when we were briefly an oil state ourselves. To a regrettable extent, foreign exchange analysis is all about finding a story that’s convenient for your (political or financial) position and telling it as forcefully as possible.Related: What does the falling pound mean for holidays and prices? Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of business, economics and markets as stock markets and the pound fall