Economics | The Guardian

Agreement reached early on Wednesday will give money to most Americans, small-business loans and help for hard-hit industries

European governments still seem destined to repeat the mistakes made in the financial crisis

$2tn coronavirus rescue deal dwarfs 2008 bailout but there will still be pain

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as Treasury and Bank of England demand support for British companies

IMF and World Bank asking countries to agree to requests for forbearance

The US is experiencing an unprecedented rise in unemployment as industries including hospitality and food service grind to a halt

Many self-isolating older people left without trusted news source as presses stop rolling

Thinktank says move could prevent workers from being laid off in coronavirus crisisNext month’s planned increase in the national living wage should be delayed to prevent struggling businesses from laying off workers during the Covid-19 crisis, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has said.The thinktank said the above-inflation increase from £8.21 to £8.72 an hour threatened jobs and ran counter to the policies announced by the chancellor, Rishi Sunak, to keep people in work. It said the rate may even need to be cut for the duration of the emergency.Related: Coronavirus benefits, sick pay and lost hours: your rights in the UK Continue reading...

The financial crisis and Great Depression took three years to play out, this crisis has taken three weeks. The Greater Depression beckonsThe shock to the global economy from Covid-19 has been faster and more severe than the 2008 global financial crisisand even the Great Depression. In those two previous episodes, stock markets collapsed by 50% or more, credit markets froze up, massive bankruptcies followed, unemployment rates soared above 10% and GDP contracted at an annualised rate of 10% or more. But all of this took around three years to play out. In the current crisis, similarly dire macroeconomic and financial outcomes have materialised in three weeks.Earlier this month, it took only 15 days for the US stock market to plummet into bear territory (a 20% decline from its peak) – the fastest such decline ever. Now, markets are down 35%, credit markets have seized up and credit spreads (like those for junk bonds) have spiked to 2008 levels. Even mainstream financial firms such as Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley expect US GDP to fall by an annualised rate of 6% in the first quarter and by 24% to 30% in the second. The US Treasury secretary, Steve Mnuchin, has warned that the unemployment rate could skyrocket to above 20% (twice the peak level during the financial crisis).Related: How best to fight the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic Continue reading...

Facilities thought to be 75% full with Saudi Arabia due to ramp up output as demand falters amid coronavirus shutdownsThe world may soon run out of space to store its extra oil as Saudi Arabia prepares to increase its fossil fuel production even as global demand for energy continues to fall due to the Covid-19 pandemic.Oil storage levels across the world’s storage facilities have climbed to about three-quarters full on average since the January shutdown of major refineries in China’s industrial heartlands to stem the outbreak of the coronavirus. Continue reading...

The president believes the US can be open for business by Easter, but he doesn’t seem to have considered the consequences

Dow Jones has best day since 1933, with Asian and European markets also up, after US move

Measures to ease the impact of coronavirus hold lessons for how we can fight the battle against climate change, argue Colin Hines and Rosamund Aubrey, while Carl Gardner looks at the future of our financial centres

Covid-19 sparks global recession fears but stimulus hopes help stock markets to rebound

Campaigners urge governments to tie any bailouts to aviation and cruise industries to requirements for climate action

The financial meltdown of 2008 failed to provoke a fundamental shift in capitalism. Will this moment be different?

US central bank has produced its biggest bazooka yet, promising massive new support for the American economy

Signatories including Caroline Lucas and Bambos Charalambous say it is essential to deal with coronavirus as a global emergency, but that we must also work harder to predict and prepare for existential risks. They are backing the wellbeing of future generations billAs we work to tackle the Covid-19 pandemic, all of us – individuals, families, communities, and the worlds of business, finance and government – are reminded of the importance of thinking, planning and budgeting for the long term.It is essential to deal with coronavirus as it is – a global emergency – but it is clear we must work harder to predict and prepare for the existential risks we face. Not only the threat of pandemics, but the climate crisis and unchecked technological advancements. Continue reading...

Nothing is working as the US central bank tries to pull the markets out of a slump

Central bank announced programs aimed at supporting large and small businesses reeling from coronavirus

KPMG study finds GDP has already stalled as firms shut doors amid coronavirus crisis

Covid-19 crisis is raising borrowing costs for poorer nations just as commodity exports, tourism and remittances sent home fallRapid action is needed to head off the risk of a new debt crisis in the world’s poorest countries amid evidence that the Covid-19 pandemic is raising borrowing costs and hitting commodity exports, according to a leading campaign group.A Jubilee Debt Campaign report said some of the world’s most vulnerable nations were being hit by a double whammy of increasing debt interest bills and the tumbling price of oil and other raw materials.Related: Why debt relief should be the answer to this coronavirus crash | Katharina Pistor Continue reading...

The 1929 crash triggered a sea change. Ideas such as universal basic income suggest Covid-19 could do likewiseRishi Sunak says the measures he has announced to support the economy are without precedent in peacetime, and he’s right. Never before has the British state agreed to pay the wages of those at risk of losing their jobs. Never before has the government ordered the pubs to shut.The chancellor is not the only one to see the struggle against the coronavirus pandemic as akin to a military operation. Boris Johnson sees this as the summer of 1940, with himself as Churchill.Related: A hundred years on, will there be another Great Depression?Related: UK state support for business and workers reaches new heights Continue reading...

Last week we all had moments where the reality of what we were about to go through as a species hit homeIn a Southend Oxfam shop last week, I found a decadent 70s paperback of Clark Ashton Smith’s Lost Worlds collection. In the 1932 story The Empire of the Necromancers, the Silver Death plague ravages the land of Zothique, and necromancers make the zombie survivors “labour in the vaults and serve their necrophiliac lust”. Within days, Ashton Smith’s lurid dreams would seem prophetic.Is our prime minister, Boris Piccaninny Watermelon Letterbox Cake Bumboys Vampires Haircut Wall-Spaffer Spunk-Burster Fuck-Business Fuck-the-Families Get-Off-My-Fucking-Laptop Girly-Swot Big-Girl’s-Blouse Chicken-frit Hulk-Smash Noseringed-Crusties Death-Humbug Technology-Lessons Surrender-Bullshit French-Turds Dog-Whistle Get-Stuffed FactcheckUK@CCHQ 88%-lies Get-Brexit-Done Bung-a-Bob-for-Big-Ben’s-Bongs Cocaine-Event Spiritual-Worth Three-Men-and-a-Dog Whatever-It-Takes Johnson, up to the coronavirus crisis? Or will he be to Covid-19 what the swiftly substituted Neville Chamberlain was to the second world war, remembered only for the futile statement: “I have in my hand a piece of toilet paper!”It looked as if liability confusion meant I might have to tour the virus-ravaged country performing to empty theatres Continue reading...

As long ago as 2006, experts were predicting what is happening todayJust a few months ago, no one had heard of coronavirus. Today, it’s profoundly changing how millions of people live. Policymakers have been playing catchup, not least on how to respond to the economic crisis. But experts (the ones Michael Gove said we’d had enough of) had pointed the way to what is now taking place. A World Bank paper on avian flus forecast that a severe outbreak would lead to a near 5% fall in global GDP, and double that in Europe. That work, done in 2006, seems much closer to where we are headed than almost all the forecasts done in 2020.A US congressional budget office paper from that period examines the economic impact of various sizes of pandemic, from a repeat of the 1918-19 Spanish flu to the less lethal Hong Kong flu in the 1960s. It is particularly prescient. Continue reading...

This emergency demands good judgment, not the usual obsession with debt and deficit levelsSeldom has a British government’s budget been rendered so out of date and so irrelevant as Rishi Sunak’s first.One of the best indicators of this was provided in his post-budget evidence to the Treasury select committee last week by Robert Chote, the much-respected chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). The OBR is the independent watchdog on government spending and taxation plans – the setting-up of which was one of the few acts of Chancellor George Osborne of which I approved.Despite the crisis, the Brexiters are hellbent on not seeking an extension to the negotiations with the EU Continue reading...

Government indecision amid the coronavirus crisis has fuelled fears of a long recession – unless there is a huge fiscal responseSuch was the scale of the global market crash last week in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak, the spectre of the 1929 Wall Street rout and the ensuing Great Depression of the 1930s has been raised. Comparisons no longer seem fanciful.The failure of the US and the UK to swing into action with a wide range of mitigation measures – despite the lessons of Italy’s slow response to the spread of Covid-19 – has heightened concerns that a sustained, epochal downturn lies in wait. Continue reading...

European markets rebound but sterling falls back after chancellor announces plan to pay wages in response to Covid-19

Unprecedented measures for coronavirus crisis include paying 80% of wages, new loans, benefits boost, rent help and VAT deferralRishi Sunak said an unprecedented level of state protection will be offered to support businesses and workers through the coming months to prevent the coronavirus outbreak bringing the economy to its knees.The chancellor’s second package of measures since he announced a £30bn rescue operation at the budget earlier this month, has been developed in recent days in response to criticism that previous efforts would fail to prevent thousands of companies going bust.VAT deferral. No businesses will pay VAT until the end of June, a deferral of tax payments for another quarter. At a cost of £30bn, companies will not need to pay what VAT is owed until the end of the year.The coronavirus business interruption loan scheme will be interest-free for 12 months, instead of the initially proposed six. The move will let companies apply for the fund even when the worst of the virus outbreak has died down. It reflects warnings from economists that the ripple effects of the virus could take much of the year to dissipateUniversal credit standard allowance will be increased by £1,000. Tax credit allowance will also be increased. This will benefit 4 million low-income families, Sunak said, and with other measures to boost benefit payments cost £7bn.Measures for the self-employed, previously denied payments if they are off work sick, will be able to access sickness benefit of £94.25 a week.Rent support of £1bn support for renters following an increase in the housing benefit element of universal credit to cover 30% of market rents in local areas. The chancellor said that renters will receive this top-up to match mortgage subsidies announced in his last package.Other measures. Previously, Sunak said cash grants worth £25,000 would be made to retail, leisure and hospitality firms to help them survive the period of turbulence. Businesses with fewer than 100 employees in the country across all sectors of the economy will be able to seek grants worth £10,000. Continue reading...

Latest emergency coronavirus package poses three big questions: is it well targeted, is it enough and is it in time?

Since the 1990s, faith in ‘the market’ has gone unchallenged. Now even public shopping has become a crime against society

Experts warn companies that have gorged on cheap money for the past decade face going out of business

Rolling coverage as the UK central bank takes emergency action for the second time in a week and the ECB and US Federal Reserve announce more stimulus

Leaders across continent announce spending measures to combat coronavirus effects

Quantitative easing stimulus is equivalent to almost 2% off interest rates

Decision comes week after Bank chiefs cut rates to 0.25% to address coronavirus crisis

Big supermarkets such as Tesco and M&S likely to get boost from ‘essential retailer’ statusAs the corporate and economic toll of the coronavirus outbreak mounts, it is clear that some winners will also emerge from the crisis, including supermarkets and others such as Marks & Spencer that are likely to be given “essential retailer” status.If the UK government follows in the footsteps of other countries such as France, where only supermarkets, pharmacies, banks, petrol stations and hairdressers are allowed to stay open, a handful of retailers could eventually benefit.Related: Ocado expected to impose rationing on more products Continue reading...

Bank now realises Europe will sustain grievous economic damage from Covid-19

UK retailers, bus companies, publishers and cinema chains issue warnings as sales take large hit

The Covid-19 outbreak is forcing politicians and central bankers to set aside ideology and orthodoxy to prevent a global collapse

Market collapse could halve production revenues as UK economic crisis bites, says reportThe North Sea oil and gas industry is in a “paper-thin” position as global oil markets plummet towards 18-year lows amid the UK’s economic emergency, according to a report.An industry trade body said investment in the ageing oil basin, which supports about 250,000 jobs in the UK, was expected to slump by almost a third because of the market collapse. Continue reading...

Bills could fall by 20% if system mirrored house price growth over past 30 years, says IFSMore than 10m households would benefit from lower council tax bills if the government reformed the “arbitrary and unfair” annual property charge to reflect the growing divide between London and the south-east and the rest of England.The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said average bills across most of the Midlands and north would fall by more than 20%, with more modest falls across much of the south-west and parts of east England should ministers introduce a system more aligned with house price growth over the past 30 years. Continue reading...

Fears of a deep downturn are rattling markets despite stimulus packages in US, UK and the eurozone

More than 250m people now in lockdown in EU as Germany and Belgium adopt measures

Pound plunges to 35-year low against US dollar as UK Bank boss warns of economic crisis

Businesses are being caught out, lacking the cover they thought they had. The whole sector needs a rethink• See all our coronavirus coverageThe concept of insurance is marvellous. Individuals or corporations pay to spread risk across a large community, creating a greater degree of financial security and peace of mind, regardless of what challenges might end up materialising.In many cases it’s worked flawlessly for centuries. Businesses burned to the ground can often emerge from the ashes in a matter of months. Disability and sickness mustn’t spell certain bankruptcy. In the 18th century, the wives and children of deceased members of the Amicable Society for a Perpetual Assurance Office were guaranteed cash, thanks to what’s believed to be one of the earliest examples of life insurance as we know it.It wasn’t always like this. In years gone by some insurers were more forgiving when it came to paying out when disease struckRelated: Johnson says this is war. But his response to Covid-19 is laughably inadequate | Aditya Chakrabortty Continue reading...

Without immediate government action, millions of people will be left destitute as the economy grinds to a halt• See all our coronavirus coveragePandemics don’t just affect our health – they rip through our economies, too. For many people affected by the coronavirus, including those who don’t fall sick, economic survival will be a primary concern. When businesses close and workers no longer get paid, the bills for unpaid rents, mortgages and consumer loans quickly accumulate. Cities have already shut down swaths of their transport services, shops, cafes and cinemas. Mass lay-offs are on the horizon. Unemployment insurance will cover some, at least for a time. But self-employed and temporary workers, and households that live pay-cheque to pay-cheque, don’t have such buffers.If you have some savings and only a little debt, the situation is tricky enough. But since the debt-fuelled financial crisis in 2008, household debt has grown. In the UK, total household debt stood at £1.28 trillion for the period from April 2016 to March 2018 according to the Office of National Statistics (ONS).Related: This crisis calls for massive government intervention: here's how to do it | Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel ZucmanRelated: Johnson says this is war. But his response to Covid-19 is laughably inadequate | Aditya Chakrabortty Continue reading...

Congressional intervention will be necessary to recover from the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemicThe coronavirus pandemic is exposing some ugly truths about the world we live in and, as we head in to what now looks certain to be a global recession, another one is coming in to focus: the Federal Reserve can’t save us.At 2.30pm on Wednesday the Fed chair, Jerome Powell, was due to hold his latest press conference. Like a lot of events, that meeting is now canceled. Powell pre-empted it by announcing an unprecedented second cut to interest rates on Sunday and unveiled plans to pump $700bn into the financial system. Continue reading...

The Guardian’s economics editor, Larry Elliott, says the global economy was already in poor shape when the coronavirus crisis struck. Now governments have stepped in with stimulus packages designed to bail out individuals and small businesses – but will that be enough to stave off a recession?The global shutdown brought about by the coronavirus pandemic has sent the world’s economy into a tailspin as workers and customers stay at home. What began as a crisis in China now spans the world, sending chills through stock markets. Fears of the virus have been matched by anxiety about job losses and business failures.The Guardian’s economics editor, Larry Elliott, lays out how a weakened global governance system and failures of cooperation has hindered the kind of joined-up response that helped dampen the effects of the 2008 financial crisis. But this week, the US government promised close to $1tn of stimulus followed in the UK with a support package worth £300bn for small and large businesses. Continue reading...

Chancellor Rishi Sunak says he will do whatever it takes to protect jobs and incomes and is offering mortgage holidays and business grants. The day’s political developments as they happen