President at the White House signs executive order that he says will hurt Iran’s economy – follow the latest live

Plan would cost £9bn and endanger promise to end austerity, according to IFS

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news

David Redshaw says the existence of a fee-paying sector keeps this country in the educational and social dark ages, Jane Moorhouse suggests all children have the right to a decent education, and Dr Ambrose Smith points out the reality of funding cutsThe headmaster of Colfe’s School says he would welcome a debate about the role of independent schools within our education system (Letters, 18 June). The debate is simple. As long as rightwing governments continue to close state school playing fields, cut the education budget to below first-world standards and generally make life difficult for state schools, they will flounder. By contrast, the well-funded private schools will provide even more state-of-the-art facilities and more middle-class parents will bankrupt themselves in order to get their children into these institutions.The pleas from the Independent Schools Council about bursaries and assisted places are just tokenism. The continued existence of a private fee-paying sector is a big part of what keeps this country in the educational and social dark ages. It’s 70 years since Churchill and RA Butler failed to grasp this particular nettle. The only good thing that might be said about Brexit is that it may finally force us to confront these systemic problems in our national life – but at what cost.

Exclusive: Special rapporteur on health says social justice more important for mental health than therapy and medicationAusterity, inequality and job insecurity are bad for mental health and governments should counteract them if they want to face up to the rising prevalence of mental illness, the UN’s top health envoy has said.In an exclusive interview with the Guardian to coincide with a hard-hitting report to be delivered to the UN in Geneva on Monday, Dr Dainius Pūras said measures to address inequality and discrimination would be far more effective in combatting mental illness than the emphasis over the past 30 years on medication and therapy. Continue reading...

Cost of leaving EU will also impede new policy initiatives, thinktank’s report saysMost forms of Brexit will worsen the country’s finances and reduce space for new initiatives to address child poverty, social care and left-behind communities that some argue drove the Brexit vote, a report has found.Academics at the UK in a Changing Europe thinktank found a positive outcome depended on politicians being able to move on from the Brexit impasse and focus on longer-term challenges including productivity, regional imbalances and democratic reform.Related: UK heading for no-deal Brexit on 31 October, EU leaders conclude Continue reading...

Foreign powers have no right to interfere in ‘internal affair’, says Zhang Jun, as Beijing also calls for trade compromiseChina has said it will not allow the G20 nations to discuss the Hong Kong issue at its summit this week, assistant foreign minister Zhang Jun said on Monday.Millions of people demonstrated on the streets of the city this month against a bill that would allow people to be extradited to the mainland to face trial in courts controlled by the Communist party.Related: Hong Kong’s elite fear extradition law could harm their reputationWhat is the proposed extradition law?Related: Forget China – it's America's own economic system that's broken | Robert Reich Continue reading...

Donald Trump to meet China president at G20, raising hopes of trade war breakthroughFinancial markets around the world are braced for a renewed period of turbulence this week as the US readies fresh sanctions against Iran and amid rising hopes for a breakthrough in the US-China trade war.Donald Trump tweeted over the weekend that “major” additional sanctions were being prepared to use against Iran from Monday to block Tehran from developing nuclear weapons.Iran cannot have Nuclear Weapons! Under the terrible Obama plan, they would have been on their way to Nuclear in a short number of years, and existing verification is not acceptable. We are putting major additional Sanctions on Iran on Monday. I look forward to the day that..... Continue reading...

Amid talk of a snap election, could Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt do what John Major did in 1992?The new prime minister could hardly have chosen a worse moment to enter Downing Street. Growth had stalled, there was serious trouble in the Middle East, the government’s flagship policy had made it deeply unpopular. Yet at the next general election, the Conservative party won an overall majority against all the odds.That was how things panned out for John Major after he took over from Margaret Thatcher in late 1990. The economy had just entered a recession that resulted in record bankruptcies and home repossessions; oil prices were soaring after Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait; and Britain had been convulsed by a summer of poll tax riots. The economy actually got a lot worse during the course of 1991 but Major still won in April 1992. Continue reading...

Echoes of that decade are getting uncomfortably loud as Trump imposes tariffs and the eurozone devalues its currencyA trade war followed by a currency war. Tariffs used as a protectionist weapon followed by attempts to secure a competitive advantage by exchange rate manipulation. That was the story of the 1930s and, the way things are shaping up, it could easily be the story of the 2020s as well.Consider the historical parallels. In 1930, the US Congress passed the Smoot-Hawley Act, which raised tariffs on imported goods. The next year, Britain became the first major country to come off the gold standard. Sterling quickly lost 25% of its value against the US dollar, making British exports cheaper on world markets. But the full benefits were short-lived. Soon after being sworn in as president in 1933, Franklin Delano Roosevelt unpegged the dollar from gold, eroding Britain’s advantage.If one currency is depreciating, another currency must be appreciating Continue reading...

As Trump announces his candidacy, forces are already mustering to confront himBehold the new political yobs. The British and American right, once keen to engage intellectually with the left and firmly anchored in business and the middle class, have now become yobs in their evidence-free, argument-free attitude to trade and foreigners. They are guided by noxious prejudice and the simple rule that their flag and interest must rule whatever.Yobs too in their attitudes to all the decent impulses in society: tolerance; the rule of law (that’s for suckers); a welcome to immigrants, fair play; respect for truth, personal integrity. The triumph of the new nativism is the triumph of the yob. Our societies, let alone our politics, have never been so threatened.Trump rages at foreigners because it is easier than telling his electorate the truth Continue reading...

After five years, the northern powerhouse has to move beyond its big-city thinkingIt was in 2014 that the then chancellor, George Osborne, used the phrase “northern powerhouse” at the Museum of Science and Industry in Manchester. His speech was set against a backdrop of steam-powered engines that had driven the Industrial Revolution in the 19th and early 20th centuries. But five years on, what exactly has been done to drive the north of England’s economy forward?Certainly, as a slogan, the northern powerhouse has helped to put the north on the political map. And it has also provided a focus for the area to make the case for greater investment and devolution of powers. The phrase is powerful too because it invokes a visceral response, one of identity, innovation and dynamism, which speaks to northerners’ desire for a greater level of self-determination. We’ve seen this most recently in the #PowerUpTheNorth campaign, in which 33 newspapers across the region worked together to demand devolution of powers and resources to the north.Many people living and working in the north are not seeing the benefits of increased productivity in their pockets Continue reading...

US weakness is inbuilt – the big 500 companies owe loyalty only to themselves and the public is shut out from prosperityXi Jinping might possibly agree next weekend on further steps to bring down China’s trade imbalance with the US, giving Donald Trump a face-saving way of ending his trade war.Related: Elizabeth Warren’s economic nationalism vision shows there's a better way | Robert ReichThese giant corporations have no particular allegiance to America. Their only responsibility is to their shareholdersRelated: The gig is up: America’s booming economy is built on hollow promises | Robert ReichRobert Reich, a former US secretary of labor, is professor of public policy at the University of California at Berkeley and the author of Saving Capitalism: For the Many, Not the Few and The Common Good. He is also a columnist for Guardian US Continue reading...

Corporate borrowing has been rising fast – and while business investment remains low, payouts to shareholders have soaredWhen companies are borrowing like never before and yet investment is low, it is reasonable to ask what they are doing with the money.They could be stockpiling huge sums to guard against a no-deal Brexit. They could be cutting prices to win market share and emerge from the current downturn with a larger customer base. Or they could be paying their workers an inflation-busting pay rise to make up for the freezes and low pay awards that characterised the years following the financial crash.Companies that have over-borrowed and live in fear of their shareholders need one thing: cheap interest rates Continue reading...

What we do over the next decade will determine the future of humanity for the next 10,000 years, writes John BirdIt may prove to be incredibly difficult, but we must rethink our short-termist priorities if we intend to make good on our promises to those striking for the future (Our lives must be transformed to defeat this climate crisis, 15 June). Like your columnist, Susanna Rustin, I want us to break out of the short-term, four-year election inertia and reimagine our approach to policymaking via the prism of acting for tomorrow, today.This week, I led a parliamentary debate about how to protect and represent the interests of future generations, where I called on the government to look at how the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015 has shaken up “business as usual” by requiring public bodies in Wales to think about the long-term impact of their decisions and how best they can prevent persistent problems, including climate change, from happening. Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as crude oil prices hit their highest levels since the end of May

This week the Upside looked at some alternatives to the quest for endless economic growthIn May we asked you: what are the alternatives to endless economic growth? Dozens of you got in touch with tips and suggestions.And so we persuaded the Guardian economics correspondent Richard Partington to try to make sense of it all by taking a good hard look at GDP and the alternatives.New episode! We talk about the limits of GDP, shifting to a wellbeing economy & what we can learn from New Zealand’s recent budget. With guests @grantrobertson1, @anniequick, @BMHayward & @Gus_ODonnell

Bank of England warns that Brexit risks are rising, but investors are cheered by prospect of US interest rate cuts.

RBA governor drops strong hint of fresh cuts to 1.25% cash rate while experts say US-style quantitative easing is on the cardsInterest rates are heading for unprecedented lows below 1% and the Reserve Bank could even be forced into extraordinary measures such as money printing to stimulate the struggling economy, forecasters believe.The governor of the Reserve Bank, Philip Lowe, raised expectations that the cash rate will be cut again next month when he said on Thursday that “the possibility of lower interest rates remains on the table”.Related: Is the global economy in for a new oil shock? | Larry ElliotThere's more than just a hint of urgency in #RBA Lowe's comments. Lock in July, brace for SoMP in August, and a watch and hope for Canberra to start listening. November is now a blob on the radar. #ausecon #ausbiz #auspol Continue reading...

Prospect of no-deal Brexit blamed for dragging back UK economy as rate left at 0.75%The Bank of England has warned that economic growth in Britain could grind to a halt during the second quarter amid mounting risks to the economy from a no-deal Brexit.Sounding the alarm as its nine-member monetary policy committee (MPC) voted unanimously to leave interest rates on hold at 0.75%, the central bank said the lack of resolution was weighing on growth.Related: Bank of England slashes growth forecast and leaves interest rates unchanged - business live Continue reading...

Colder May puts chill on summer clothing sales as consumer spending falls for second month in a rowBritain’s consumers have reined in spending after an unseasonably cold May prompted a sharp decline in summer clothing sales.The Office for National Statistics said retail sales dropped by 0.5% in May from a month earlier, the biggest decline in spending this year, after shoppers seemingly had shrugged off Brexit fears earlier in 2019.What's the problem? Continue reading...

IMF, WTO and World Bank not doing enough to fight climate crisis, shadow chancellor saysFighting the climate crisis should be put at the heart of decisions made by the International Monetary Fund and other global institutions as part of a fundamental shake-up designed to reduce the influence of corporate power, John McDonnell has said.The shadow chancellor used a Guardian interview to say that Donald Trump’s hostility to international bodies was the opportunity to recast organisations set up after the second world war for the modern age.Related: Meltdown: the climate crisis – in pictures Continue reading...

Factory growth has stalled in Britain, while house prices in the capital remain under pressure

Rise in interest rates unlikely, with CPI down to 2% in May from 2.1% in AprilA fall in transport costs and cheaper clothing brought to an end the recent rise in inflation that threatened to push the Bank of England to increase interest rates.Energy costs, which spiked in April, and a price war in the car industry following a slump in sales over the past year also helped to bring down the consumer prices index (CPI) from 2.1% in April to 2% in May. Transport costs fell by 3.8% overall between April and May this year, led by falling air fares. Continue reading...

Number in poverty rises to 8m, with 60% living in households where someone worksBritain has seen a big jump in the working poor since the 1990s, with almost three out of five people below the official poverty line living in a household where at least one person is working.The Institute for Fiscal Studies found that a drop in the number of workless households, better-off pensioners and higher rents had resulted in 8 million in poverty from working households.The main poverty indicator used in the Joseph Rowntree Foundation's study is the number of households that have income levels of less than 60% of median income. Using the same measure, the UK was ranked 22nd out of 35 in an international league table of child poverty rates in rich nations put together by Unicef in 2012. Continue reading...

Might the Guardian commit to giving statistics like these as much coverage as it does to the GDP, asks Paul Allin, while Dr Nicholas Falk argues that our governments need to change the way investment decisions are madePeter Wrigley and other correspondents (Letters, 14 June) are looking for measures of success that are wider than GDP or the Office for National Statistics (ONS) measures of personal wellbeing. The ONS already publishes a dashboard of 43 objective and subjective measures of national wellbeing, chosen to reflect the things that matter to people. This is currently showing a long-term improvement in only two in every three of the things measured. International comparisons across a broad range of topics are also available, notably in the OECD How’s Life? report and website.It’s just a thought, but might the Guardian commit to giving statistics like these as much coverage as it does to the GDP and other macro-economic releases? That might help in building a more complete picture of the complexities of how the economy, society and the environment are interconnected. Continue reading...

After the failure to recruit a ‘disability champion’ for the fashion industry, activists argue that more should be done to earn the ‘purple pound’In December, on International Day of Persons with Disabilities, the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) announced that the government was recruiting six “disability champions” to help “tackle the issues disabled people face as consumers”.One of these positions was reserved for a fashion disability champion who would, the DWP claimed, “open industry doors”. Five new champions were appointed on schedule; in the fields of brand and design; countryside and heritage; products and spaces; technology; and web accessibility. The champion for the fashion industry was absent. Continue reading...

The US President says Draghi’s plans will weaken the euro putting the US at a competitive disadvantage

US president’s comments come after Mario Draghi said it could act to loosen monetary policyDonald Trump has accused the European Central Bank of unfairly manipulating the euro, further raising the stakes for Washington in its trade and diplomatic disputes around the world.The US president suggested in a tweet that comments by Mario Draghi, the head of the ECB, had triggered an immediate slide in the value of the euro versus the dollar, “making it unfairly easier for them to compete against the USA”.Mario Draghi just announced more stimulus could come, which immediately dropped the Euro against the Dollar, making it unfairly easier for them to compete against the USA. They have been getting away with this for years, along with China and others.Related: Donald Trump slams Mario Draghi's rate cut plans - business live Continue reading...

The chancellor says the UK’s open trading economy needs inward investmentBritain is aware of the risks facing sensitive areas of the economy from greater levels of Chinese investment, Philip Hammond has said, as London forges closer economic ties with Beijing despite US concerns.Speaking after a joint economic summit between Britain and China in London that is set to open up deals for companies in the two countries worth more than £500m, the chancellor said he welcomed the closer cooperation. Continue reading...

Business group downgrades GDP rises and warns dwindling investment will hurt long-term economyEconomic growth in Britain is expected to slow to the lowest levels since the financial crisis as firms run down Brexit stockpiles, according to a leading business lobby group.After a stockpiling rush this year that pumped up the rate of economic growth, the British Chambers of Commerce said growth would slow in 2020 and 2021.Gross domestic product (GDP) is a key government statistic and provides a measure of the UK's total economic activity. Continue reading...

Governor Mark Carney should use his Mansion House speech to tell the Square Mile it must stay on a short leashWhen the Bank of England’s governor, Mark Carney, addresses City grandees this Thursday at Mansion House in London, he could step outside his usual comfort zone and make his thoughts on Donald Trump’s trade wars and their dampening effect on global growth more explicit.Closer to home, he could document the impact of Brexit and the danger from a Conservative party that insists on pressing ahead with it, even if that means leaving without an agreement.Since 2016, the Square Mile has grown more self-satisfied by the day as reports of banks fleeing prove to be exaggerated Continue reading...

Trump’s hawkish stance with Iran could prove too much for an already fragile world economyAn oil price surge prompted by trouble in the Middle East inevitably conjures up memories of late 1973, when a dramatic rise in the cost of crude ended the long postwar global economic boom.No question, the embargo organised by Opec during the Yom Kippur war was a game changer. The west had got used to oil prices of around $2 a barrel; within weeks it was paying $11 a barrel. Inflation soared, growth slowed, unemployment hit levels not seen since the 1930s.Related: What impact could oil tanker attacks have on global economy?(May 5, 2019)Related: The growing risk of a 2020 recession and crisis | Nouriel Roubini Continue reading...

As investment nears collapse, the last thing Britain needs is a PM so contemptuous of business and so fiscally heedlessI have been critical, I hope with good reason, of Jeremy Corbyn’s equivocation over what is rapidly becoming a pressing need to call another referendum. But credit where credit is due: at least the Labour leader attempted in the Commons last week to block the possibility of a no-deal Brexit – alas, without success.In common with this year’s Reith lecturer, Lord Sumption, I do not like referendums, and believe in representative democracy. Moreover, in keeping with Edmund Burke’s address to the electors of Bristol some 250 years ago, I think MPs should regard themselves as representatives, not delegates. Unfortunately, in last week’s vote, eight Labour MPs behaved as delegates of Leave constituencies and voted with the Gadarene rush of Conservative Brexiters.What comparisons with the past bring to the surface is the sheer mediocrity of most of the present contenders Continue reading...

Extra property wealth rises 50% but numbers of young families owning homes halves in 20 yearsProperty wealth in Britain from second homes has risen by more than 50% over the past two decades to reach nearly £1tn, according to a report that indicates growing inequality across the UK.Total property wealth for UK residents from second homes, buy-to-let investments and overseas property has risen in value from around £610bn in 2001 to £941bn. Continue reading...

The China-US trade war could derail the world economy but central banks lack tools to fight any crisisLast summer, my colleague Brunello Rosa and I identified 10 potential downside risks that could trigger a US and global recession in 2020. Nine of them are still in play today.Many involve the United States. Trade wars with China and other countries, along with restrictions on migration, foreign direct investment, and technology transfers, could have profound implications for global supply chains, raising the threat of stagflation (slowing growth alongside rising inflation). And the risk of a US growth slowdown has become more acute now that the stimulus from the 2017 tax legislation has run its course.Related: The US economic recovery is far from being a world record | Jeffrey Frankel Continue reading...

Shift in stance comes as more countries raise concerns about inequality – Christine LagardeThe International Monetary Fund is urging countries to protect spending on health, education and vulnerable groups amid growing concern among its members about excessive levels of inequality, its managing director has said.Announcing the change of approach in an interview with the Guardian, Christine Lagarde said it was now politically incorrect to argue against the impact of social spending on growth and stability. Continue reading...

The economic arguments adopted by Britain and the US in the 1980s led to vastly increased inequality – and gave the false impression that this outcome was not only inevitable, but good• Read the text version here Continue reading...

It uses different rules to other countries to measure business cycles and recessionsThis month marks the tenth full year of the US economic recovery that began in June 2009. Back then, a “trough” in business activity signified the end of the Great Recession that followed the 2007-8 global financial crisis. The current expansion has continued, uninterrupted, ever since.The best explanation for the length of this recovery is disappointingly simple: the Great Recession was the United States’ worst downturn since the 1930s. The deeper the hole, the longer it takes to climb out. Yet the prolonged US expansion also highlights some important issues regarding how countries measure business cycles and economic slumps.Related: The unusual US economic recovery is now its longestA 2011-12 recession in the UK was subsequently erased from the record when the GDP numbers were revised in June 2013 Continue reading...

The preaching of finance experts may be tiresome, but perhaps we should take another look at our constant consumptionI get notifications on my phone whenever I use my bank card and this week, while undertaking a mini-audit, I noted that I was doing something that apparently leads to financial ruin. The other morning, in a bakery on Broadway, I spent $8.70 on non-essential pastries. A few hours later, in spite of the loaf of bread in my house, I threw down $8.25 at Pick A Bagel. And scattered throughout the day, like small distress flares sent up from my current account, was a notification trail of $3.77 coffees.Suze Orman, a personal finance expert with her own show on CNBC, said something in March that resurfaced this week and made everyone instantly furious. “You spend $1 to $3 on a cup of coffee,” she said, “which is approximately $100 a month … $100 a month in a Roth IRA [retirement account] over 40 years is $1m. So you need to think about it as you are peeing $1m down the drain as you are drinking that coffee.” It’s an escalation of the avocado toast debacle of 2017, but now they’re coming for your coffee.Related: Can you really save for a deposit by ditching coffee and avocado toast? I tried to find out​ Continue reading...

Lawrence Lockhart, John Airs, Peter Wrigley and Jeremy Cushing respond to an article by Dan ButtonAs an economist I endorse Dan Button’s article (Stop obsessing about GDP: we should focus on wellbeing, 11 June). The most we can say is that a succession of GDP figures over months should indicate whether the economy is growing or moving into recession. Also aggregate GDP statistics tell us nothing about how national wealth and income are distributed: globalisation in recent decades has increased the size of the cake, but the main beneficiaries have been the already better-off.To extract meaning from GDP trends we have to break it into its components: consumption, investment, government spending, the trade balance. Consumption is by far the largest of these, and the main driver of the economy, but its level is precariously underpinned by unsecured private debt. It is broadly accepted that real investment (in new productive capacity) is dismally inadequate for the continued growth of a modern economy; much of what does take place goes into buying paper assets. Continue reading...

Childcare organisations urge the government to address the early years funding shortfallDozens of MPs will be visiting childcare providers in their constituency on Friday as part of a week of action where providers and parents have called on the government to address the early years funding shortfall, which is now over two-thirds of a billion pounds.MPs will see a sector close to breaking point. The number of childcare providers fell by almost 10,000 in the last two years. Around half of all “free” childcare places come with voluntary charges, while many providers have been forced to choose between higher parent fees or closing their doors – a situation that hits disabled children and poorer families hardest. Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as tanker fires send crude prices soaring

Watchdog will take no action despite evidence of business customers being mistreated after 2008 crashA report by the City watchdog into the scandal at Royal Bank of Scotland’s turnaround unit has been described as a whitewash after the regulator confirmed it would not punish the bank for mistreating business customers following the financial crash.The Financial Conduct Authority’s final report into RBS’s now-defunct Global Restructuring Group (GRG) said it would take no action against the lender or senior staff despite evidence of “systemic and widespread” mistreatment of small- and medium-sized business customers between 2008 and 2013.Related: We do not know who is to blame for GRG debacle or if FCA could stop a repeat | Nils PratleyRelated: FCA proves to be a paper tiger in case of RBS mistreatmentRelated: RBS executives deny wrecking small businesses to make a profit Continue reading...

Strait of Hormuz incidents underline threat hanging over busy shipping lane

Art Laffer, ‘godfather’ of supply-side economic theory, is going to be awarded a presidential medal. He doesn’t deserve itNext Wednesday, Donald Trump will award the Presidential Medal of Freedom to the arch-conservative economist Art Laffer.Sadly, Laffer’s career has been heavy on punditry, light in academic rigor, and absolutely destructive for the average American and the long-term health and sustainability of our economy.Morris Pearl is chair of Patriotic Millionaires, which focuses on promoting public policy solutions that encourage political equality, guarantee a sustaining wage for working Americans, and ensure that wealthy individuals and corporations pay their fair share of taxes. He previously was a managing director at BlackRock, one of the world’s largest investment firms. Continue reading...

Banknotes of 10,000, 20,000 and 50,000 bolívar denominations will begin circulating on Thursday, the central bank saidVenezuela is releasing new banknotes for the second time in less than a year, the central bank said on Wednesday, after hyperinflation eroded the effects of an August 2018 monetary overhaul meant to improve availability of cash.Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro, last year cut five zeroes off the currency and prices. The move was supposed to ease shortages of cash that pushed most of the economy toward debit and credit card operations and put heavy strain on digital commerce platforms.Related: Barter and dollars the new reality as Venezuela battles hyperinflation Continue reading...

Beneath the low unemployment figures and long-awaited wage growth lie risks that can’t be ignoredData released over the next few months will show that the current US economic expansion is the longest on record. But while the US continues to outperform other advanced economies, this success has yet to dispel many Americans’ persistent sense of economic insecurity and frustration; nor does it alleviate concerns about the lack of policy space to respond to the next economic downturn or financial shock.The current expansion began in mid-2009, following the 2008 financial crisis and the “Great Recession”. Powered initially by exceptional fiscal interventions and previously unthinkable monetary policies, the economy built enough of a foundation for private sector confidence to return, and for corporate balance sheets to recover. Coupled with accelerating advances in new technologies, the expansion came to be led in large part by technology and platform companies presiding over the new “gig economy”. It was given further impetus by pro-growth measures, including deregulation and tax cuts.Related: Critics of quantitative easing should consider the alternative | Barry Eichengreen Continue reading...