US weakness is inbuilt – the big 500 companies owe loyalty only to themselves and the public is shut out from prosperityXi Jinping might possibly agree next weekend on further steps to bring down China’s trade imbalance with the US, giving Donald Trump a face-saving way of ending his trade war.Related: Elizabeth Warren’s economic nationalism vision shows there's a better way | Robert ReichThese giant corporations have no particular allegiance to America. Their only responsibility is to their shareholdersRelated: The gig is up: America’s booming economy is built on hollow promises | Robert ReichRobert Reich, a former US secretary of labor, is professor of public policy at the University of California at Berkeley and the author of Saving Capitalism: For the Many, Not the Few and The Common Good. He is also a columnist for Guardian US Continue reading...

Corporate borrowing has been rising fast – and while business investment remains low, payouts to shareholders have soaredWhen companies are borrowing like never before and yet investment is low, it is reasonable to ask what they are doing with the money.They could be stockpiling huge sums to guard against a no-deal Brexit. They could be cutting prices to win market share and emerge from the current downturn with a larger customer base. Or they could be paying their workers an inflation-busting pay rise to make up for the freezes and low pay awards that characterised the years following the financial crash.Companies that have over-borrowed and live in fear of their shareholders need one thing: cheap interest rates Continue reading...

What we do over the next decade will determine the future of humanity for the next 10,000 years, writes John BirdIt may prove to be incredibly difficult, but we must rethink our short-termist priorities if we intend to make good on our promises to those striking for the future (Our lives must be transformed to defeat this climate crisis, 15 June). Like your columnist, Susanna Rustin, I want us to break out of the short-term, four-year election inertia and reimagine our approach to policymaking via the prism of acting for tomorrow, today.This week, I led a parliamentary debate about how to protect and represent the interests of future generations, where I called on the government to look at how the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015 has shaken up “business as usual” by requiring public bodies in Wales to think about the long-term impact of their decisions and how best they can prevent persistent problems, including climate change, from happening. Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as crude oil prices hit their highest levels since the end of May

This week the Upside looked at some alternatives to the quest for endless economic growthIn May we asked you: what are the alternatives to endless economic growth? Dozens of you got in touch with tips and suggestions.And so we persuaded the Guardian economics correspondent Richard Partington to try to make sense of it all by taking a good hard look at GDP and the alternatives.New episode! We talk about the limits of GDP, shifting to a wellbeing economy & what we can learn from New Zealand’s recent budget. With guests @grantrobertson1, @anniequick, @BMHayward & @Gus_ODonnell

Bank of England warns that Brexit risks are rising, but investors are cheered by prospect of US interest rate cuts.

RBA governor drops strong hint of fresh cuts to 1.25% cash rate while experts say US-style quantitative easing is on the cardsInterest rates are heading for unprecedented lows below 1% and the Reserve Bank could even be forced into extraordinary measures such as money printing to stimulate the struggling economy, forecasters believe.The governor of the Reserve Bank, Philip Lowe, raised expectations that the cash rate will be cut again next month when he said on Thursday that “the possibility of lower interest rates remains on the table”.Related: Is the global economy in for a new oil shock? | Larry ElliotThere's more than just a hint of urgency in #RBA Lowe's comments. Lock in July, brace for SoMP in August, and a watch and hope for Canberra to start listening. November is now a blob on the radar. #ausecon #ausbiz #auspol Continue reading...

Prospect of no-deal Brexit blamed for dragging back UK economy as rate left at 0.75%The Bank of England has warned that economic growth in Britain could grind to a halt during the second quarter amid mounting risks to the economy from a no-deal Brexit.Sounding the alarm as its nine-member monetary policy committee (MPC) voted unanimously to leave interest rates on hold at 0.75%, the central bank said the lack of resolution was weighing on growth.Related: Bank of England slashes growth forecast and leaves interest rates unchanged - business live Continue reading...

Colder May puts chill on summer clothing sales as consumer spending falls for second month in a rowBritain’s consumers have reined in spending after an unseasonably cold May prompted a sharp decline in summer clothing sales.The Office for National Statistics said retail sales dropped by 0.5% in May from a month earlier, the biggest decline in spending this year, after shoppers seemingly had shrugged off Brexit fears earlier in 2019.What's the problem? Continue reading...

IMF, WTO and World Bank not doing enough to fight climate crisis, shadow chancellor saysFighting the climate crisis should be put at the heart of decisions made by the International Monetary Fund and other global institutions as part of a fundamental shake-up designed to reduce the influence of corporate power, John McDonnell has said.The shadow chancellor used a Guardian interview to say that Donald Trump’s hostility to international bodies was the opportunity to recast organisations set up after the second world war for the modern age.Related: Meltdown: the climate crisis – in pictures Continue reading...

Factory growth has stalled in Britain, while house prices in the capital remain under pressure

Rise in interest rates unlikely, with CPI down to 2% in May from 2.1% in AprilA fall in transport costs and cheaper clothing brought to an end the recent rise in inflation that threatened to push the Bank of England to increase interest rates.Energy costs, which spiked in April, and a price war in the car industry following a slump in sales over the past year also helped to bring down the consumer prices index (CPI) from 2.1% in April to 2% in May. Transport costs fell by 3.8% overall between April and May this year, led by falling air fares. Continue reading...

Number in poverty rises to 8m, with 60% living in households where someone worksBritain has seen a big jump in the working poor since the 1990s, with almost three out of five people below the official poverty line living in a household where at least one person is working.The Institute for Fiscal Studies found that a drop in the number of workless households, better-off pensioners and higher rents had resulted in 8 million in poverty from working households.The main poverty indicator used in the Joseph Rowntree Foundation's study is the number of households that have income levels of less than 60% of median income. Using the same measure, the UK was ranked 22nd out of 35 in an international league table of child poverty rates in rich nations put together by Unicef in 2012. Continue reading...

Might the Guardian commit to giving statistics like these as much coverage as it does to the GDP, asks Paul Allin, while Dr Nicholas Falk argues that our governments need to change the way investment decisions are madePeter Wrigley and other correspondents (Letters, 14 June) are looking for measures of success that are wider than GDP or the Office for National Statistics (ONS) measures of personal wellbeing. The ONS already publishes a dashboard of 43 objective and subjective measures of national wellbeing, chosen to reflect the things that matter to people. This is currently showing a long-term improvement in only two in every three of the things measured. International comparisons across a broad range of topics are also available, notably in the OECD How’s Life? report and website.It’s just a thought, but might the Guardian commit to giving statistics like these as much coverage as it does to the GDP and other macro-economic releases? That might help in building a more complete picture of the complexities of how the economy, society and the environment are interconnected. Continue reading...

After the failure to recruit a ‘disability champion’ for the fashion industry, activists argue that more should be done to earn the ‘purple pound’In December, on International Day of Persons with Disabilities, the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) announced that the government was recruiting six “disability champions” to help “tackle the issues disabled people face as consumers”.One of these positions was reserved for a fashion disability champion who would, the DWP claimed, “open industry doors”. Five new champions were appointed on schedule; in the fields of brand and design; countryside and heritage; products and spaces; technology; and web accessibility. The champion for the fashion industry was absent. Continue reading...

The US President says Draghi’s plans will weaken the euro putting the US at a competitive disadvantage

US president’s comments come after Mario Draghi said it could act to loosen monetary policyDonald Trump has accused the European Central Bank of unfairly manipulating the euro, further raising the stakes for Washington in its trade and diplomatic disputes around the world.The US president suggested in a tweet that comments by Mario Draghi, the head of the ECB, had triggered an immediate slide in the value of the euro versus the dollar, “making it unfairly easier for them to compete against the USA”.Mario Draghi just announced more stimulus could come, which immediately dropped the Euro against the Dollar, making it unfairly easier for them to compete against the USA. They have been getting away with this for years, along with China and others.Related: Donald Trump slams Mario Draghi's rate cut plans - business live Continue reading...

The chancellor says the UK’s open trading economy needs inward investmentBritain is aware of the risks facing sensitive areas of the economy from greater levels of Chinese investment, Philip Hammond has said, as London forges closer economic ties with Beijing despite US concerns.Speaking after a joint economic summit between Britain and China in London that is set to open up deals for companies in the two countries worth more than £500m, the chancellor said he welcomed the closer cooperation. Continue reading...

Business group downgrades GDP rises and warns dwindling investment will hurt long-term economyEconomic growth in Britain is expected to slow to the lowest levels since the financial crisis as firms run down Brexit stockpiles, according to a leading business lobby group.After a stockpiling rush this year that pumped up the rate of economic growth, the British Chambers of Commerce said growth would slow in 2020 and 2021.Gross domestic product (GDP) is a key government statistic and provides a measure of the UK's total economic activity. Continue reading...

Governor Mark Carney should use his Mansion House speech to tell the Square Mile it must stay on a short leashWhen the Bank of England’s governor, Mark Carney, addresses City grandees this Thursday at Mansion House in London, he could step outside his usual comfort zone and make his thoughts on Donald Trump’s trade wars and their dampening effect on global growth more explicit.Closer to home, he could document the impact of Brexit and the danger from a Conservative party that insists on pressing ahead with it, even if that means leaving without an agreement.Since 2016, the Square Mile has grown more self-satisfied by the day as reports of banks fleeing prove to be exaggerated Continue reading...

Trump’s hawkish stance with Iran could prove too much for an already fragile world economyAn oil price surge prompted by trouble in the Middle East inevitably conjures up memories of late 1973, when a dramatic rise in the cost of crude ended the long postwar global economic boom.No question, the embargo organised by Opec during the Yom Kippur war was a game changer. The west had got used to oil prices of around $2 a barrel; within weeks it was paying $11 a barrel. Inflation soared, growth slowed, unemployment hit levels not seen since the 1930s.Related: What impact could oil tanker attacks have on global economy?(May 5, 2019)Related: The growing risk of a 2020 recession and crisis | Nouriel Roubini Continue reading...

As investment nears collapse, the last thing Britain needs is a PM so contemptuous of business and so fiscally heedlessI have been critical, I hope with good reason, of Jeremy Corbyn’s equivocation over what is rapidly becoming a pressing need to call another referendum. But credit where credit is due: at least the Labour leader attempted in the Commons last week to block the possibility of a no-deal Brexit – alas, without success.In common with this year’s Reith lecturer, Lord Sumption, I do not like referendums, and believe in representative democracy. Moreover, in keeping with Edmund Burke’s address to the electors of Bristol some 250 years ago, I think MPs should regard themselves as representatives, not delegates. Unfortunately, in last week’s vote, eight Labour MPs behaved as delegates of Leave constituencies and voted with the Gadarene rush of Conservative Brexiters.What comparisons with the past bring to the surface is the sheer mediocrity of most of the present contenders Continue reading...

Extra property wealth rises 50% but numbers of young families owning homes halves in 20 yearsProperty wealth in Britain from second homes has risen by more than 50% over the past two decades to reach nearly £1tn, according to a report that indicates growing inequality across the UK.Total property wealth for UK residents from second homes, buy-to-let investments and overseas property has risen in value from around £610bn in 2001 to £941bn. Continue reading...

The China-US trade war could derail the world economy but central banks lack tools to fight any crisisLast summer, my colleague Brunello Rosa and I identified 10 potential downside risks that could trigger a US and global recession in 2020. Nine of them are still in play today.Many involve the United States. Trade wars with China and other countries, along with restrictions on migration, foreign direct investment, and technology transfers, could have profound implications for global supply chains, raising the threat of stagflation (slowing growth alongside rising inflation). And the risk of a US growth slowdown has become more acute now that the stimulus from the 2017 tax legislation has run its course.Related: The US economic recovery is far from being a world record | Jeffrey Frankel Continue reading...

Shift in stance comes as more countries raise concerns about inequality – Christine LagardeThe International Monetary Fund is urging countries to protect spending on health, education and vulnerable groups amid growing concern among its members about excessive levels of inequality, its managing director has said.Announcing the change of approach in an interview with the Guardian, Christine Lagarde said it was now politically incorrect to argue against the impact of social spending on growth and stability. Continue reading...

The economic arguments adopted by Britain and the US in the 1980s led to vastly increased inequality – and gave the false impression that this outcome was not only inevitable, but good• Read the text version here Continue reading...

It uses different rules to other countries to measure business cycles and recessionsThis month marks the tenth full year of the US economic recovery that began in June 2009. Back then, a “trough” in business activity signified the end of the Great Recession that followed the 2007-8 global financial crisis. The current expansion has continued, uninterrupted, ever since.The best explanation for the length of this recovery is disappointingly simple: the Great Recession was the United States’ worst downturn since the 1930s. The deeper the hole, the longer it takes to climb out. Yet the prolonged US expansion also highlights some important issues regarding how countries measure business cycles and economic slumps.Related: The unusual US economic recovery is now its longestA 2011-12 recession in the UK was subsequently erased from the record when the GDP numbers were revised in June 2013 Continue reading...

The preaching of finance experts may be tiresome, but perhaps we should take another look at our constant consumptionI get notifications on my phone whenever I use my bank card and this week, while undertaking a mini-audit, I noted that I was doing something that apparently leads to financial ruin. The other morning, in a bakery on Broadway, I spent $8.70 on non-essential pastries. A few hours later, in spite of the loaf of bread in my house, I threw down $8.25 at Pick A Bagel. And scattered throughout the day, like small distress flares sent up from my current account, was a notification trail of $3.77 coffees.Suze Orman, a personal finance expert with her own show on CNBC, said something in March that resurfaced this week and made everyone instantly furious. “You spend $1 to $3 on a cup of coffee,” she said, “which is approximately $100 a month … $100 a month in a Roth IRA [retirement account] over 40 years is $1m. So you need to think about it as you are peeing $1m down the drain as you are drinking that coffee.” It’s an escalation of the avocado toast debacle of 2017, but now they’re coming for your coffee.Related: Can you really save for a deposit by ditching coffee and avocado toast? I tried to find out​ Continue reading...

Lawrence Lockhart, John Airs, Peter Wrigley and Jeremy Cushing respond to an article by Dan ButtonAs an economist I endorse Dan Button’s article (Stop obsessing about GDP: we should focus on wellbeing, 11 June). The most we can say is that a succession of GDP figures over months should indicate whether the economy is growing or moving into recession. Also aggregate GDP statistics tell us nothing about how national wealth and income are distributed: globalisation in recent decades has increased the size of the cake, but the main beneficiaries have been the already better-off.To extract meaning from GDP trends we have to break it into its components: consumption, investment, government spending, the trade balance. Consumption is by far the largest of these, and the main driver of the economy, but its level is precariously underpinned by unsecured private debt. It is broadly accepted that real investment (in new productive capacity) is dismally inadequate for the continued growth of a modern economy; much of what does take place goes into buying paper assets. Continue reading...

Childcare organisations urge the government to address the early years funding shortfallDozens of MPs will be visiting childcare providers in their constituency on Friday as part of a week of action where providers and parents have called on the government to address the early years funding shortfall, which is now over two-thirds of a billion pounds.MPs will see a sector close to breaking point. The number of childcare providers fell by almost 10,000 in the last two years. Around half of all “free” childcare places come with voluntary charges, while many providers have been forced to choose between higher parent fees or closing their doors – a situation that hits disabled children and poorer families hardest. Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as tanker fires send crude prices soaring

Watchdog will take no action despite evidence of business customers being mistreated after 2008 crashA report by the City watchdog into the scandal at Royal Bank of Scotland’s turnaround unit has been described as a whitewash after the regulator confirmed it would not punish the bank for mistreating business customers following the financial crash.The Financial Conduct Authority’s final report into RBS’s now-defunct Global Restructuring Group (GRG) said it would take no action against the lender or senior staff despite evidence of “systemic and widespread” mistreatment of small- and medium-sized business customers between 2008 and 2013.Related: We do not know who is to blame for GRG debacle or if FCA could stop a repeat | Nils PratleyRelated: FCA proves to be a paper tiger in case of RBS mistreatmentRelated: RBS executives deny wrecking small businesses to make a profit Continue reading...

Strait of Hormuz incidents underline threat hanging over busy shipping lane

Art Laffer, ‘godfather’ of supply-side economic theory, is going to be awarded a presidential medal. He doesn’t deserve itNext Wednesday, Donald Trump will award the Presidential Medal of Freedom to the arch-conservative economist Art Laffer.Sadly, Laffer’s career has been heavy on punditry, light in academic rigor, and absolutely destructive for the average American and the long-term health and sustainability of our economy.Morris Pearl is chair of Patriotic Millionaires, which focuses on promoting public policy solutions that encourage political equality, guarantee a sustaining wage for working Americans, and ensure that wealthy individuals and corporations pay their fair share of taxes. He previously was a managing director at BlackRock, one of the world’s largest investment firms. Continue reading...

Banknotes of 10,000, 20,000 and 50,000 bolívar denominations will begin circulating on Thursday, the central bank saidVenezuela is releasing new banknotes for the second time in less than a year, the central bank said on Wednesday, after hyperinflation eroded the effects of an August 2018 monetary overhaul meant to improve availability of cash.Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro, last year cut five zeroes off the currency and prices. The move was supposed to ease shortages of cash that pushed most of the economy toward debit and credit card operations and put heavy strain on digital commerce platforms.Related: Barter and dollars the new reality as Venezuela battles hyperinflation Continue reading...

Beneath the low unemployment figures and long-awaited wage growth lie risks that can’t be ignoredData released over the next few months will show that the current US economic expansion is the longest on record. But while the US continues to outperform other advanced economies, this success has yet to dispel many Americans’ persistent sense of economic insecurity and frustration; nor does it alleviate concerns about the lack of policy space to respond to the next economic downturn or financial shock.The current expansion began in mid-2009, following the 2008 financial crisis and the “Great Recession”. Powered initially by exceptional fiscal interventions and previously unthinkable monetary policies, the economy built enough of a foundation for private sector confidence to return, and for corporate balance sheets to recover. Coupled with accelerating advances in new technologies, the expansion came to be led in large part by technology and platform companies presiding over the new “gig economy”. It was given further impetus by pro-growth measures, including deregulation and tax cuts.Related: Critics of quantitative easing should consider the alternative | Barry Eichengreen Continue reading...

Exploitation is a feature of capitalism, not a bug. Our economic system is beyond salvage

Populist prophets of doom are wrong. The capitalist system is working for Americans

Living Wage Foundation research shows families struggling to make ends meetMore than 5 million workers across Britain are in low-paid and insecure work, leaving families struggling to make ends meet, according to a campaign calling for more firms to offer guaranteed hours to their staff.According to research published by the Living Wage Foundation, workers in Wales, the north-east and West Midlands experience the highest rates of low-paid insecure work in the country.Related: The Guardian view on working hours: when more means less Continue reading...

Increases expected despite global slowdown, say three members of policy committeeThree members of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee have warned the UK remains on track to raise interest rates several times over the next couple of years, despite a global slowdown in trade and the likelihood of falling interest rates in the US.The deputy governor, Ben Broadbent, said the Bank’s health check on the UK economy in early May showed it warranted higher interest rates than financial markets currently expect. Continue reading...

Rolling economic and financial news, including new UK unemployment figures and the latest trade war action

Rise of 32,000 in three months to April was weakest since AugustJobs growth in the British economy has cooled after months of employers appearing to shrug off Brexit concerns.Employment in Britain increased by 32,000 to reach a record high of 32.75 million in the three months to April, according to the Office for National Statistics, fuelled by a rise in the numbers of self-employed people and women entering the workforce. Continue reading...

Political interference with fiscal policy is likelier if central banks shun QE in the next recession

Britain’s economy shrank by 0.4% in April as car factories shut down in case of a hard Brexit, and stockpiling boost faded

New Zealand has begun measuring national growth in a more nuanced way. Britain should follow its leadThis morning, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released the latest set of GDP figures. It is a familiar exercise common to most countries: a day when the broad state of an economy is judged according to small changes in a single indicator.Related: GDP is not a good measure of wellbeing – it's too materialistic | Joseph StiglitzRelated: Wellbeing should replace growth as 'main aim of UK spending' Continue reading...

Vehicle output falls by 24% as firms including BMW and Peugeot pause productionThe British economy shrank in April amid a dramatic decline in car production ahead of the original Brexit deadline, according to official figures.According to the Office for National Statistics, gross domestic product (GDP) plunged by 0.4% in April from a month earlier as factories across the country launched a wave of planned shutdowns to avoid any disruption that could have been unleashed by a no-deal Brexit. Continue reading...

Two reports about the circumstances surrounding the murders of two children in Northamptonshire beg as many questions as they answerParents are not the only ones responsible for their children. Our social responsibility is at its greatest when parents are unable to protect their families – or, worse, are the threat. The murders of two young children in Northamptonshire, within five months of each other, is a brutal reminder that those duties are not always met. In both cases, according to the serious case reviews, children’s social care and services including health and police failed to act on risks that were known to them.The primary question is what is being done to ensure that such catastrophic errors are not repeated. A related one is who will take responsibility for what happened in December 2017, when two-year-old Dylan Tiffin-Brown died of heart failure after an assault by his father, and April 2018, when one-year-old Evelyn-Rose Muggleton was viciously beaten by her mother’s partner. Both children’s killers have been convicted of murder and are serving life sentences. Continue reading...

Crises may be a sign of panic, but as 2008 showed, the unthinkable can become the doableNeil Woodford was once the man with the Midas touch, the darling of the investor community. His record of picking winners was such that money flowed like torrents into his funds.As time went by, picking winners became more difficult and some of Woodford’s growth stocks turned out to be duds. A few eyebrows were raised. Eventually, as investors started to contemplate big losses, many of them asked for their money back. The demands for redemptions became so great that trading in Woodford’s flagship fund was suspended for 28 days. Or, to put it in old-fashioned terms, capital controls were imposed. Continue reading...