Sterling is sliding as UK and Brussels head for fresh clash over the Irish Backstop

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, including reaction to the latest Chinese GDP report

The incoming European Central Bank chief must call for an end to the eurozone’s suicidal fiscal rules, which have now run out of roadChristine Lagarde was a key member of the infamous troika – Greece’s official creditors – who crushed our people’s resistance to perpetual debt bondage. The other key figure alongside the International Monetary Fund’s then managing director was Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, who played a central role in that drama by engineering the closure of Greece’s banks. Now, four years later, Lagarde has been anointed to succeed Draghi at the helm of the ECB.Despite her role, and the dealings we had when I was Greece’s finance minister, not once did I feel animosity towards her. I found her intelligent, cordial, respectful. She even acknowledged, in private at least, that Greece had been given a raw deal and that my campaign to cut our public debt was right and proper. Lagarde’s priority was holding the troika’s line and minimising any challenge to its collective authority.Forced to choose between Berlin’s favouritism and the interests of her institution, she unfailingly opted for the formerRelated: Easy money won’t solve Christine Lagarde’s economic problems | Phillip Inman Continue reading...

Chinese economic growth falls to slowest pace since 1992 – but is expanding faster than the USDonald Trump has claimed that his tariff battle with China is working after official data from Beijing showed growth in the world’s second biggest economy dropping to its slowest pace since 1992.The US president said the impact of his protectionist measures had been to cause an exodus of companies from China, as Beijing announced that its annual rate of expansion had slowed from 6.4% to 6.2% in the second quarter of 2019.Related: Trump fact check: is the Chinese economy really 'going down the tubes'? Continue reading...

Footfall drops to seven-year low for June prompting fears UK economy is at a standstillShoppers deserted UK high streets during June as the washout weather and continuing Brexit uncertainty helped drive store visits down to a seven-year low for the month.The “summer slump” took a particularly heavy toll on high streets, with shopping centres also badly affected, according to the British Retail Consortium’s (BRC) monthly footfall tracker for the period from 26 May to 29 June.What's the problem? Continue reading...

The BoE governor stands more chance than the ex-chancellor but the likely choice may just be a Bulgarian womanEver since he set his departure date from the Bank of England, there has been speculation about what Mark Carney will do next. There are not that many bigger jobs around than his current one but one of them has become available after the news of Christine Lagarde’s planned departure from the International Monetary Fund for the European Central Bank.Carney would certainly like a move to Washington, not least because the other job he has had his eye on – prime minister of Canada – is currently occupied by Justin Trudeau. Asked at a Bank press conference whether he is interested, Carney replied he had lots of admiration for Lagarde and that the proper processes should be followed. What he pointedly didn’t say was “no”.Christine Lagarde’s nomination to run the European Central Bank has prompted speculation over who could replace her as managing director of the International Monetary Fund.Related: Labour sounds alarm over George Osborne's ambitions to run IMF - business live Continue reading...

The economy expanded just 0.3% in May, and a slump awaitsOne swallow doesn’t make a summer, so the old saying goes. For the warm middle months of the year, the British economy looked remarkably frosty, chilled by fears over a no-deal Brexit, until the Office for National Statistics reported a surprisingly strong month for growth in May.The figures, released last week, were a glimmer of hope that Britain might yet shrug off the worst of the Brexit cold, which has laid the economy low over recent months as companies put their investment plans on ice. Continue reading...

The favourite for Downing Street has aggravated the uncertainty that is undermining confidence and hitting sterlingWimbledon fortnight brings back happy memories of growing up in that pleasant suburb. But the recent news that the leading pretender to the Conservative throne was told by his girlfriend to “get out of my flat” stirs a particular memory: of the number of offenders brought before the courts who would be described in the Wimbledon Borough News as being “of no fixed abode”.It was therefore a stroke of genius for Private Eye to put a picture of Alexander “Boris” Johnson outside No 10 Downing Street with the caption “I really need somewhere to live.”His budgetary plans are so wild that he undermines any Conservative arguments about the budgetary dangers of a Labour government Continue reading...

A no-deal Brexit comes closer, thanks to Donald Trump’s little helper•You can buy your own print of this cartoon Continue reading...

MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe issues warning during speech in LondonA no-deal Brexit could result in a prolonged period with interest rates at a record low level of almost zero, according to one of the Bank of England’s key policymakers.In signs of growing Threadneedle Street concern about the fragility of the economy, Gertjan Vlieghe, a member of the rate-setting monetary policy committee, said he would be prepared to cut borrowing costs aggressively in the event that the UK left the EU without a transition agreement on 31 October this year.Related: Bank of England's Vlieghe: no-deal Brexit could mean near zero interest rates - business liveIn a ‘no deal’ scenario, the UK would leave the single market and the customs union immediately with no ‘divorce’ arrangement in place. The European court of justice would cease to have jurisdiction over the UK, and the country would also leave various other institutions including Euratom and Europol. Continue reading...

Policymaker Gertjan Vlieghe said rates might have to be cut to virtually zero if the UK crashes out of the EU without a deal

Governor says EU firms might also face lending crisis by being cut off from banks in LondonThe Bank of England has warned that a no-deal Brexit could trigger a material shock to the UK economy while causing widespread disruption for EU companies by cutting them off from London-based banks.Stating that the risk of Britain crashing out without a deal had risen, the Bank said the City of London was ready to withstand such a scenario and avoid banks failing, as they did in the financial crisis. However, there would still be major disruption for companies. Continue reading...

Bank of England governor refuses to rule out succeeding Christine LagardeMark Carney has positioned himself as a contender to be the next head of the International Monetary Fund after refusing to rule out joining the race to take over from Christine Lagarde.The Bank of England governor has been widely cited as a potential candidate to replace Lagarde as the IMF’s managing director after her nomination to head the European Central Bank.Related: Bank of England warns of lending crisis for EU firms after no-deal Brexit Continue reading...

US has said it will investigate planned levy on firms such as Amazon and Facebook

Financial Stability Report says UK banks can ride out a no-deal Brexit, but there could be serious volatility in the markets

The men vying to be prime minister have promised the kind of spending for which they once lambasted LabourThe nation’s credit card has been maxed out. The government failed to fix the roof while the sun was shining. When times are tough a country has to tighten its belt and live within its means. Remember all that? Of course you do. Those were some of George Osborne’s favourite soundbites in 2010 when he was pinning the blame for the global financial crisis on Labour’s profligacy. And mighty effective they were.Related: Johnson says lavish spending plans would work after no-deal BrexitThe race to the bottom on tax is in some sense welcome – it validates the use of tax and spending as an economic toolRelated: Hammond warns Johnson and Hunt over spending promises Continue reading...

Triumph turns to sober realisation after founder Julian Dunkerton’s spectacular boardroom coupThree months after founder Julian Dunkerton returned to Superdry via a spectacular boardroom coup, the tone of triumph has been replaced by sober realisation that the aims of the revolution will not be secured quickly.Last year’s ugly numbers – a statutory loss of £85m and a 57% fall in “underlying” pre-tax profits to £41.9m – were pinned on the old regime, which was fair. But the promise for this year is merely “stabilisation” and “reset”, which translates as dull. Continue reading...

GDP rose by 0.3% in May from a month earlier, says Office for National StatisticsThe British economy pulled out of a one-month downturn to return to growth in May as carmakers resumed production in the wake of shutdowns for the original Brexit deadline.The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said UK GDP rose by 0.3% from a month earlier, when stoppages at car plants resulted in negative growth of 0.4%.Gross domestic product (GDP) measures the total value of activity in the economy over a given period of time. Continue reading...

Stocks surge as US central bank chief hints at interest rate cuts, while UK economy remains weak

Shares on Wall Street rose on the comments, with the S&P 500 briefly moving above 3,000 for the first timeThe US looks increasingly likely to cut interest rates for the first time in over a decade, the Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell, hinted on Wednesday.“Many” Fed officials now believe a weakening global economy and rising trade tensions have strengthened the case for a rate cut, Powell wrote in a report released ahead of his appearance before Congress.Related: UK economy returns to growth; Fed chair hints at US rate cut - business live Continue reading...

Trump pledged to stop ‘offshoring’ but manufacturing workers at GE and Carrier say Trump has broken his campaign promiseNext Friday, Eddie Martin will work his last day at the General Electric plant in Salem, Virginia, after working there for seven years.Related: Trump denies 'ever threatening to demote’ Fed chairman Jerome PowellI gave the best years of my life to that corporation that threw me out like I was a rag dollRelated: Trump 'disrespectful and wrong' over UK ambassador, says Hunt Continue reading...

Family take share of £100,000 award with study of UK’s golden eras of growth including pioneering welfare systemBritain could look back more than 400 years to the reign of Queen Elizabeth I for inspiration on how to reboot the economy and tackle inequality, according to a joint winner of one of the most valuable prizes in economics.Simon Szreter, a professor of history and public policy at Cambridge University, his wife, Hilary Cooper, an economics consultant, and their son Ben Szreter, the chief executive of a community-based charity in Cambridge, were collectively one of two winners of the inaugural IPPR economics prize, worth a total of £100,000. Continue reading...

Two women won the backing of EU leaders to head the European commission and the European Central Bank, breaking with more than 60 years of male dominance Continue reading...

Politicians and pundits may be distracted, but economists are already talking about another financial crisisGod bless Britain’s political class, for in their capacity for happy self-absorption they are as reliably easy to please as a puppy. Just chuck them the right chew toy.Who won last night’s head-to-head, Boris or Jeremy? Gnaw gnaw. What is George Osborne playing at? Snuffle, snuffle. Doesn’t young Matt Hancock look tortured these days? Slobber, slobber. And so politicians and pundits paw away, the existential questions facing an entire country somehow never quite as rousing as the latest gossip from Versailles.In the construction sector, which has just had its worst month since the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis, they now talk of 'quicksand'Related: No-deal threat causes sharpest investment drop since 2009 recession Continue reading...

Concerns rise over strength of UK economy with figures expected to confirm recession

The pound has hit its lowest level since January amid Brexit worries, as the European Central Bank’s new chief economists takes questions

The European Central Bank last looked at its monetary policy framework 16 years agoFinland’s central bank governor, Olli Rehn, has reiterated his call for the European Central Bank to conduct a long-overdue review of its policy framework. The upcoming change of leadership at the institution – with Christine Lagarde, the International Monetary Fund’s managing director since 2011, likely to succeed Mario Draghi as president – offers an important opportunity to heed that call.When the ECB was established 20 years ago, central banks were generally not too clear about the details of their policy frameworks. At that time, some ambiguity may have been helpful, because of the flexibility it offered when the ECB started operating. Furthermore, it allowed central bankers with different experiences and perspectives to agree on a framework, even though they may not have agreed on its precise details.Related: It's high time to create a World Carbon Bank | Kenneth Rogoff Continue reading...

Retailers say total sales fell by 1.3% in June while annual rate of growth slowed to 0.6%Fears that Britain’s economy has come to a standstill have been heightened by a report from retailers showing annual consumer spending at its weakest since their records began in the mid-1990s.The British Retail Consortium said clarity over Brexit was urgently required after falling sales in June came as a marked contrast to the bumper World Cup and weather-related activity of a year earlier. Continue reading...

Bank that once seemed to have beaten big US rivals at their own game is a national embarrassmentLittle more than a decade ago, Deutsche Bank seemed to have achieved the remarkable feat of beating the big Wall Street banks at their own game. Germany’s biggest financial institution, fuelled by an acquisition spree, a long bull market and willingness to pay fat bonuses, owned one of the world’s top five investment banks.Its rise looked natural and inevitable. Why wouldn’t the biggest bank in the eurozone’s biggest economy be able to compete with JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs and outmuscle Barclays, the UK’s would-be investment banking champion? In the summer of 2007, just before the arrival of the global financial crisis, Deutsche’s share price reached €110.Related: What went wrong at Deutsche Bank? Continue reading...

We could use a global carbon tax to give developing countries incentives to phase out coalAlthough much derided by climate-change deniers, not least Donald Trump, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s Green New Deal hits the nail on the head with its urgent call for the US to lead by example on global warming. But the sad truth is that, for all the needless waste produced by Americans’ gluttonous culture, emerging Asia is by far the main driver of the world’s growing carbon dioxide emissions. No amount of handwringing will solve the problem. The way to do that is to establish the right incentives for countries such as China, India, Vietnam, Indonesia and Bangladesh.It is hard to see how to do this within the framework of existing multilateral aid institutions, which have limited expertise on climate issues and are pulled in different directions by their various constituencies. For example, to the dismay of many energy experts, the World Bank recently rather capriciously decided to stop funding virtually all new fossil-fuel plants, including natural gas. But replacing dirty coal plants with relatively clean natural gas is how the US has managed to reduce emissions growth dramatically over the past decade (despite Trump’s best efforts), and is a centrepiece of the famous “Princeton wedges” pragmatic options for minimising climate risk. One cannot let the perfect become the enemy of good in the transition to a carbon-neutral future. Continue reading...

CBI warns uncertainty is crippling UK economy with country at risk of lagging behind G7 competitorsThe rising threat of no-deal Brexit has set Britain on course for the biggest decline in business investment since the financial crisis, the Confederation of British Industry has warned.Paving the way for weaker future economic growth, the CBI warned that business spending in the UK economy was set to decline by about 1.3% in 2019 compared with a year ago – the steepest drop since the last recession in 2009. Continue reading...

The scale of the climate emergency requires nothing less than full government engagementWith just 11 years left to prevent irreversible damage caused by the climate emergency, there are still options to wean the world’s economy off its reliance on fossil fuels. However, anything less than putting Britain on a war footing will not be enough.The government response so far has been timid. Theresa May introduced a net-zero carbon emissions target for 2050, but there are reasons why the Conservatives haven’t gone further: her party is hard-wired to fail. Clinging to a belief in the power of free markets, it neglects the fact that to decarbonise the economy greater investment from the state is required.Tinkering at the margins of an economic model driving environmental breakdown is guaranteed to deepen the climate emergency Continue reading...

The new European Central Bank boss should resist pressure to lower interest rates further stillWelcome to Frankfurt, Christine Lagarde. A new job as head of the European Central Bank awaits. There are only so many supranational jobs on the political and economic circuit and you have nabbed a second one after seven years at the helm of the International Monetary Fund.There is much work to be done, not least the task of rescuing a eurozone economy that has seen four years of steady growth across most parts of its 19-member currency bloc start to evaporate.Related: George Osborne must understand the IMF role is no popularity contest | Nils Pratley Continue reading...

Plans have been mooted for tax-free zones to offset post-Brexit tariffs. But are they needed? And do they actually work?

Depending on who you speak to, Le Freeport is a high-security storage facility or a money-laundering risk

Alexis Tsipras’s party promised to fight EU-imposed austerity, but instead embraced it. Sunday’s polls will punish themIn January 2015, progressives the world over hailed Syriza’s general election victory as a rejection of EU-imposed austerity and the dawn of a new era for Greece. Four years on, Alexis Tsipras’s once radical party goes to the polls on Sunday as a dead man walking – it’s now a confused political mishmash of leftists, social democrats, conservatives and rightwing populists that defends the very neoliberal policies Syriza once threatened to destroy the eurozone over.Related: Resurgent centre-right party poised for victory in Greek electionRelated: Tsipras faces fight to stay in power after EU elections mauling Continue reading...

Non-Farm Payroll report beats expectations, but wage growth remains tepid

Falling productivity and Brexit uncertainty to blame for wage stagnation, says ONSBritain’s dismal track record at increasing labour productivity following the financial crisis a decade ago has cost workers as much as £5,000 in missing income, according to official estimates.The Office for National Statistics said the failure to maintain productivity growth – a key measure of economic output per hour of work – was one of the main reasons for a lost decade of pay growth for British workers. When companies are able to do more with less, they can increase salaries.Related: UK productivity grows by just 0.5% in 2018 amid Brexit uncertainty Continue reading...

Institute of Directors’ survey finds companies are more pessimistic about economyConfidence among British business leaders has been knocked by Theresa May’s resignation and uncertainty over who will succeed her as prime minister, according to a survey.Firms became more pessimistic about the economic outlook, with a key confidence measure falling to a six-month low of -28% in early June from -19% in April in a survey by the Institute of Directors. The figure reflects a net balance of firms saying the economy would improve minus those expecting a deterioration. The findings are based on a poll of 900 company directors carried out between 22 May and 5 June. May announced her resignation on 24 May. Continue reading...

Will the Evening Standard editor take a seat at the top table? Don’t put your money on it just yet…If George Osborne’s “friends” were not advertising the former chancellor’s interest in the top job at the International Monetary Fund, would we even take the idea seriously? One suspects not. The UK has a strong candidate to push to be managing director of the IMF. He is Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England.Osborne’s claim seems to rest on the idea that the current editor of the Evening Standard is a skilful political animal who could attract votes from around the world, and thus find a way through the IMF board’s opaque selection process.Christine Lagarde’s nomination to run the European Central Bank has prompted speculation over who could replace her as managing director of the International Monetary Fund. Continue reading...

Politics is not about a struggle over a fixed pot of money, says Mary Mellor, and the best way to end austerity is to reject it as an ideology, says Peter McKennaAditya Chakrabortty (It’s reckless. But a Tory cash splurge could win an election, 3 July) is right to point out the hypocrisy of the political right about public expenditure. While progressive proposals for public spending are decried as burdening the hard-pressed taxpayer, the right is happy to use public money to rescue the banks or boost their electoral chances.As I explain in my book Money: Myths, Truths and Alternatives, neoliberal economics is built on a fairytale about money that distorts our view of how a contemporary public money system operates. It is assumed that public spending depends on extracting money from the market and that money (like gold) is always in short supply. Neither is true. Both the market and the state generate money – the market through bank lending and the state through public spending. Both increase the money supply, while bank loan repayments and taxation reduce it. There is no natural shortage of money – which today mainly exists only as data. Continue reading...

Only in a culture that sees power as white, posh, male and western could the man who masterminded austerity be considered for a top jobImagine: you have been very publicly sacked from your job and the mistakes you made have had dire consequences for society. When planning your next steps do you a) rethink your career goals and consider doing something different with less responsibility; b) go for a job you’re completely unqualified for; or c) go for a big promotion with even greater stakes for society? I assume most of us would go for a), and even if we wanted to, we wouldn’t have the option of b) or c) without facing rejection.However, that’s not the case for our former chancellor George Osborne, who after presiding over the worst economic recovery in recorded history, with severe and deadly public spending cuts, went for option b) and managed to become the editor of the Evening Standard – a job for which he is totally unqualified. And how has that gone? Losses of £11.5m aren’t too shabby. So, sensing now is the time to cut and run, he’s in the running for the top job at the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Yes, it’s yet another example of a privately educated white male failing upwards. But it also shows us how without an ideological change at the top we are stuck with the same pool of arrogant neoliberals. Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, including the latest runners and riders to run the International Monetary Fund

Former UK chancellor’s austerity agenda will count against him, say opponentsGeorge Osborne’s interest in running the International Monetary Fund has met immediate criticism because of the former chancellor’s austerity policies and Brexit-related question marks over the UK’s international standing.Osborne, the editor of the Evening Standard, has signalled to friends that he views himself as a potential candidate to replace Christine Lagarde, the current head of the Washington-based fund, who was nominated to lead the European Central Bank this week.Christine Lagarde’s nomination to run the European Central Bank has prompted speculation over who could replace her as managing director of the International Monetary Fund.Hey, why not? If Trump is nominating people who got everything wrong about monetary policy for the Fed, why not someone who insisted that austerity is expansionary for the IMF? https://t.co/VlBZeCYGRJIt is difficult to imagine that in these pre-Brexit day, any UK candidate would enjoy the support of the EU. The temptation to show the benefits EU members have is too strong. — Osborne eyes chance of replacing Lagarde as head of IMF via @FT

Ofwat concerned over plans to charge ‘significantly’ more to cover utilities’ day-to-day costsWater companies have been rapped on the knuckles over plans to charge customers “significantly” more to cover their day-to-day costs from next year.The water regulator said it had substantial concerns over the business plans of Thames Water, Anglian Water, SES Water and Yorkshire Water for the early 2020s. Continue reading...

Bottom half of all workers are paid only 6% of total pay, says International Labour OrganizationNearly half of all global pay is scooped up by only 10% of workers, according to the International Labour Organization, while the lowest-paid 50% receive only 6.4%.The lowest-paid 20% – about 650 million workers – get less than 1% of total pay, a figure that has barely moved in 13 years, ILO analysis found. It used labour income figures from 189 countries between 2004 and 2017, the latest available data.Related: ILO warns of rise in social unrest and migration as inequality widens Continue reading...

Former chancellor and current Standard editor seeking to be first Briton in post, reports suggest

Move reinforces expectations of fresh stimulus package for ailing eurozone economyThe prospect of a fresh stimulus package to support the ailing eurozone economy when Christine Lagarde takes up the reins as boss of the currency bloc’s central bank sent shares higher across Europe and the US on Wednesday.The FTSE 100 closed up 0.7% at 7,609 points after starting the week at 7,497, while the New York S&P 500 sailed to another record high and moved closer to the 3,000 mark. Continue reading...

If confirmed as president, rebooting eurozone growth should be among top prioritiesChristine Lagarde’s nomination as the next president of the European Central Bank was not widely expected.