Economics | The Guardian

Bone-headed reforms and deep cuts have left our education system in a scandalous state of disrepairLast summer, as the politics of Britain’s exit from the EU staggered on and England’s World Cup run offered some kind of respite, I spent an afternoon in Brownhills, near the West Midlands town of Walsall. I was there to try to get beyond the deafening inanities of Brexit, and report on the mounting financial crisis facing England’s education system. At Millfield primary school, everything once again became clear.Millfield serves a deprived catchment area, and is the kind of place whose everyday magic becomes obvious as soon as you walk in. It has an imaginative approach to education and a track record of helping children in difficult circumstances. Despite its location among tarmac and trunk roads, it specialises in outdoor activities such as canoeing and hiking. But the day I was there, all the talk was of which bits of its provision would have to go. Its headteacher, Michelle Sheehy, was blunt: “We’re heading for a £200,000 deficit. So we need to cut.”Related: One in five teachers using own money for school supplies – reportRelated: More than 1,000 English schools turn to online donations to close funding gap Continue reading...

There isn’t a shortage of Brits to succeed Carney, but the net may well be spread beyond these shoresWanted: suitable candidate to run one of the world’s leading central banks. Applicants should demonstrate the economic acumen of a Keynes, the diplomatic skills of a Metternich, the political cunning of a Machiavelli, and the hide of a rhinoceros. Those interested should register their interest with the Right Hon Philip Hammond Esq at HM Treasury. Interviews will take place in the coming months and the name of the new governor will be announced in the autumn.Now that there is a bit of Brexit breathing space, Hammond can get on with a couple of the other issues in his intray, one of which is to find a successor to Mark Carney at the Bank of England when he leaves next January. Continue reading...

The UK has not been ‘badly treated’ by the EU. All it is doing is pointing out the consequences of our follyOne vox-pop remark in a Financial Times article – “On the verge of a Brexit breakdown” – illustrated what we Remainers have been up against. Ironically, it came from a former Remainer: “I voted Remain, but in a second referendum I would vote Leave because of the way the EU has treated us.” This ill-informed whine apparently came from “an educational psychologist at a west London shopping mall, who declined to give her name”.Treated us? All our friends in the rest of the European Union have been doing is spelling out the consequences of leaving the club while desperately hoping we will change our minds. I fear that our educational psychologist friend must be a reader of those well-known newspapers that spent decades poisoning the minds of their readers with ill-informed or deliberately distorted reporting about “Brussels” before the referendum, and since then have continued their distortions of what has really been going on.There does seem to be a widespread recognition that a reflective referendum is the only way out of the stalemate Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, including new health checks on the eurozone private sector

Year-on-year rise in March of 6.7% was highest since October 2016, says ONSBritain’s consumers ignored the turmoil at Westminster last month and splashed out in high street stores and online.Despite fears that spending would plummet as a result of mounting Brexit uncertainty, figures from the Office for National Statistics showed retail sales were up 1.1% in March. Continue reading...

EU threatens $20bn of tariffs in long-running battle over Boeing and Airbus subsidiesTomato ketchup, handbags and video game consoles are among the US imports facing EU tariffs, as the European bloc hit back in the latest twist in the transatlantic dispute over aircraft subsidies.The European commission threatened to impose tariffs on US imports worth $20bn (£15.3bn) on Wednesday, publishing an 11-page catalogue of items at risk, which also included aircraft and tractors, following a World Trade Organization ruling against Washington last month.Related: Trump threatens tariffs on $11bn of EU imports such as food and wine Continue reading...

London experiences biggest slump in a decade but Midlands and north-west race aheadHouse prices across Britain have increased at their slowest rate for more than six years, with London experiencing its biggest slump in a decade as Brexit concerns drag on growth.The Office for National Statistics said average house prices in the UK rose by 0.6% in the year to February, the lowest rate of growth since September 2012, and down from 1.7% in January.Related: UK property market ‘in line for summer Brexit relief rally’ Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as UK house price slowdown spreads from London to the South East

If firms were really taking on more people as a result of Brexit jitters, there’d be more part-timersThere is a straightforward explanation for the continued strength of the UK jobs market. Firms are reluctant to invest because acute Brexit uncertainty means it is almost impossible to forecast future demand. Rather than be left with a bit of unwanted and expensive kit on their hands, businesses have taken on more workers instead.That all seems to make perfect sense. Britain has a reputation for having a flexible labour market, so companies can easily take on staff to meet temporary surges in demand knowing that they can get shot of them later. Continue reading...

Almost 180,000 workers hired, while unemployment remains at lowest level since mid-70sPay growth in Britain has risen at the fastest rate in more than a decade, as companies keep hiring despite growing fears over Brexit.Average weekly earnings, including bonuses, rose by 3.5% on the year in the three months to February, according to the Office for National Statistics, matching the rate recorded in January and the joint highest level since mid-2008. Continue reading...

Overwork can have business costs and is the main reason for workplace sickness in the UKIn the backlash against the “996” working schedule, China’s tech workers say their bosses have lost valuable productivity gains that could have been generated with a shorter working week and fewer hours.Related: Working 9 to 9: Chinese tech workers push back against long hours Continue reading...

Carolyn Hayman says action must be taken to bring prices back into an affordable ratio with incomes, while Tom Booth says section 21 should not be abolishedThere was a note of scepticism (Labour’s home truths, Nils Pratley, 10 April) about Labour’s proposal to seek to control growth in house prices. Giving the job to the Bank of England alone is unlikely to work. But a government statement of intent to bring house prices over, say, a 10-year period back into an affordable ratio with incomes, using a number of different levers (personal tax, incentives to downsize, development land tax, mortgage supply, house-building investment etc) is more feasible and highly desirable. While people are paying up to half their disposable income on housing, the government’s ability to increase tax rates to fund public services will continue to be a struggle, not to mention the misery of so many people living in cramped and unsuitable housing.It won’t be popular with homeowners, but we are a shrinking number. And at least some of us will see the benefits for our younger relatives.

Novel ways of monitoring the UK economy include counting the number of trucks on roadsGovernment statisticians are trying to harness the power of big data technology, monitoring the number of lorries on roads and company VAT receipts, in an attempt to more rapidly spot changes taking place in the UK economy.The Office for National Statistics (ONS) believes rapid advances in technology, including around big data, machine learning and online activity, could enable economists to update their traditional toolkits. Continue reading...

Eight out of 10 finance leaders expect long-term environment to be worseBritish businesses are the most gloomy they have been about Brexit since the 2016 referendum, with eight out of 10 finance leaders expecting the long-term business environment to be worse as a result of the UK leaving the EU.The accountancy group Deloitte has warned that worries over the long-term impact of Brexit are mounting, with more than half of finance bosses expecting to rein in recruitment and spending. Continue reading...

Rutger Bregman became a social media sensation after his onstage tirade at the gathered elite in Davos this year. His call for higher taxes, open borders and a shorter working week captured the imaginations of millions who viewed the speech online. But can his utopian ideas be translated into realistic policy changes? Plus: J Oliver Conroy on David Buckel, a year on from the climate protester’s death in New YorkWhen the Dutch historian Rutger Bregman went on stage at a World Economic Forum event in Davos this year it was as a relatively obscure author. He used his appearance to call for a proper discussion of tax and launched a tirade against what he saw as hypocritical discussions about inequality.Bregman’s angry outburst quickly went viral, with the video being watched tens of millions of times, on the back of which he made a series of media appearances in which he continued to enhance his reputation for blunt speaking. Continue reading...

International development secretary calls for creditors such as China to be transparentBritain’s international development secretary, Penny Mordaunt, has sounded the alarm over rising debt levels in the poorest countries amid fears heavy repayments will jeopardise the fight against global poverty.Mordaunt, speaking at the spring meeting of the World Bank in Washington DC, urged China and private lenders to be fully transparent about their lending to developing countries. Continue reading...

Nations should heed global warming warning – and also take lesson from Bretton Woods in 1944

When governments withdraw from child-friendly policies, their citizens are, unsurprisingly, more reluctant to procreateWhen a baby is conceived there are usually three parties involved, and one of them is the government.Without financial and other kinds of support from the state, people are more reluctant to have children, according to official statistics. It’s a phenomenon seen across the developed world since the 1990s, when direct state intervention appears to have taken over from a more general sense of economic wellbeing as the main driver of procreation.The old, of course, have only themselves to blame. They voted for Tory administrations to maintain austerity Continue reading...

Alarm over the ‘shrinking’ middle class hides a more important truth about the state of income inequalityThe middle class might be developing a bit of a complex about its size. After all, rarely a month goes by without a headlines about how it is “shrinking”. Sometimes the preferred verb is “hollowing out”, but that doesn’t sound too great either.The latest shrinkage alert comes from the OECD, in a new report showing that the middle class now accounts for just 61% of the populations of member countries, down from 64% in the mid-80s.Related: Millennials being squeezed out of middle class, says OECD Continue reading...

Time likely to be too tight for referendum before end of October, says chancellorPhilip Hammond has played down the possibility that the UK could use the delay to Brexit to hold a second referendum and stressed that he still expects Britain to leave the European Union.Speaking in Washington, the chancellor said time would be too tight to hold a confirmatory vote before the new deadline of the end of October unless it was triggered over the coming weeks.Related: There’s an upside to our Brexit humiliation – a second referendum is more likely | Alastair CampbellRelated: How criticising Mark Carney became the new Tory sport Continue reading...

President said in an interview with the Atlantic the first daughter ‘would’ve been great’ because ‘she’s very good with numbers’Donald Trump has confirmed that he considered naming his daughter Ivanka Trump to head the World Bank, and also thinks she would have been a great UN ambassador.In an interview with the Atlantic published on Friday, Trump was apparently quite eager to sing his daughter’s praises: the author writes that she requested an interview with Ivanka herself and was turned down, but instead got a call that the president wanted to talk to her.Related: 'Ridiculous': report Ivanka Trump could lead World Bank meets scorn Continue reading...

Latest Chinese trade data show that imports from America have tumbled in 2019, as Donald Trump’s tariffs bite

Country has $32bn surplus in March but trade war with US is serving as brake on growth

David Attenborough uses IMF speech to warn of human consequences of inaction on climate changeEurope can expect even greater migratory pressure from Africa unless action is taken to prevent global warming, Sir David Attenborough has said in a strongly worded warning to policymakers that time is running out to save the natural world from extinction.Speaking at the spring meeting of the International Monetary Fund in Washington DC, the broadcaster and environmentalist said that on current trends parts of the world would soon become uninhabitable and populations would be be forced to move.Related: Our Planet review – Attenborough's first act as an eco-warrior Continue reading...

David Malpass tells China to come clean over its lending to indebted African countriesThe new head of the World Bank has told China that it needs to come clean about its lending to poor countries, as he warned that debt problems are once again on the increase.In his first public appearance as World Bank president, David Malpass said there were already 17 African countries at high risk of debt distress.Related: China defends plans to spend $60bn in Africa over three years Continue reading...

Recent respite for China, on which other emerging markets are highly leveraged, could be short-livedSuddenly it seems that emerging-market economies have gained a respite. Capital flows to these economies dried up in the second half of last year as the US Federal Reserve raised its policy rate for five consecutive quarters and shrank its balance sheet. But in January, the Fed announced a pause, which now looks to be extended: the dot plots of Federal open market committee members currently indicate no rate rises for the remainder of the year. Moreover, the Fed has signalled that “quantitative tightening”, the process of allowing treasuries and mortgage-backed securities to roll off its balance sheet, will continue only through September.This means merciful relief for emerging economies, which have been buoyed by the resumption of capital inflows. A replay of the second half of last year, much less of the 2013 “taper tantrum”, now seems unlikely. Continue reading...

Thinktank says middle-income group has shrunk across 40 developed countriesMillennials in advanced economies around the world are being squeezed out of the ranks of the middle class, including in Britain, as pay growth stalls and house prices skyrocket, according to the OECD.The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said that for every generation since the baby boom of the 1940s, across 40 major countries, the middle-income group had shrunk and its economic influence weakened. Continue reading...

We need to think hard about the kind of future our money is going to support through our investments, writes Mary Stevens of Friends of the Earth. Plus a letter from Margaret SquiresYour article on why women need to start investing to exercise more control over their futures (Why finance is a feminist issue, G2, 9 April) contains much sound advice. However, it neglects an important consideration. If, as Emilie Bellet explains, women are “looking more at where we want to be in 10, 20 or 30 years’ time”, then we also need to think hard about the kind of future our money is going to support. Many women – and men – would be horrified to think that the price for their own security is increased uncertainty and instability across the world, as many funds continue to rely heavily on the fossil fuel and extractive industries. Even so-called ethical funds are often only undertaking basic negative screening, for example ruling out pornography, weapons, tobacco and gambling, but with very little to say on climate risk. The real bottom line is that there is no money to be made on a dead planet.Happily, this can be a win-win situation. Increasingly, fund managers are recognising the risk of the “carbon bubble” and are starting to shift their own funds. And evidence is growing that over the long term, sustainable investments can outperform the broken business-as-usual market. But this shift won’t happen without ongoing consumer pressure on the financial sector. An influx of motivated women into this space presents an excellent opportunity. Continue reading...

Britain’s economy expanded by 0.2% in February, better than expected, thanks to a burst in manufacturing output

GDP growth of 0.2% in February confounds expectations of slowdownThe British economy continued to grow in February as manufacturers rushed to stockpile goods before Brexit, according to official figures.The Office for National Statistics said gross domestic product grew by 0.2% in February from a month earlier, confounding City economists’ expectations for zero growth as Brexit nears and the world economy slows. Continue reading...

Fund says debts set to build up as central banks remove threat of higher interest ratesCentral banks are running the risk of a severe financial crisis through policies aimed at boosting short-term economic growth, the International Monetary Fund has warned.In its half-yearly global financial stability report, the IMF said the removal of the threat of higher interest rates had prompted a rapid recovery in financial markets after last autumn’s turbulence but would lead to a fresh buildup in already high levels of debt.A more pronounced global slowdown could lead to falling asset prices due to a weaker outlook for corporate profits, notwithstanding attempts by central banks and finance ministries to provide stimulus.An unexpected shift to a more aggressive approach to raising interest rates in the leading industrial countries might lead to falling share prices if investors felt they had taken a too-benign view of the stance of monetary policy.Political and policy risks, such as an escalation of trade tensions or a no-deal Brexit, could affect market sentiment and make investors more risk averse. Continue reading...

The president’s attack on every pillar of society jeopardises the US’s continued prosperity and ability to function as a democracyKirstjen Nielsen’s forced resignation as US secretary of homeland security is no reason to celebrate. Yes, she presided over the forced separation of families at the US border, notoriously housing young children in wire cages. But Nielsen’s departure is not likely to bring any improvement, as Donald Trump wants to replace her with someone who will carry out his anti-immigrant policies even more ruthlessly.The president’s immigration policies are appalling in almost every aspect. And yet they may not be the worst feature of his administration. Indeed, identifying its foullest aspects has become a popular American parlour game. Yes, he has called immigrants criminals, rapists and animals. But what about his deep misogyny or his boundless vulgarity and cruelty? Or his winking support of white supremacists? Or his withdrawal from the Paris climate accord, the Iran nuclear deal, and the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces treaty? And, of course, there is his war on the environment, on healthcare, and on the rules-based international system. Continue reading...

Trump appointee David Malpass says climate change action plan remains a priorityDonald Trump’s choice to run the World Bank has moved swiftly to allay fears that his appointment will lead to a softening of the organisation’s approach to climate change.In his first day at the helm of the Washington-based institution, David Malpass said helping developing countries cope with global warming would remain central to the bank’s mission. Continue reading...

White House says levies are response to Airbus subsidies it claims harm US interestsDonald Trump has threatened to impose US tariffs on $11bn (£8.4bn) of goods from the EU, raising the stakes in the transatlantic trade dispute between the world’s two largest economic superpowers.The Trump administration announced the additional levies on EU goods – including roquefort and stilton cheese, wine and aircraft parts – as a response to subsidies for Airbus, the European aerospace and defence group, which it said were harmful to the US.The World Trade Organization finds that the European Union subsidies to Airbus has adversely impacted the United States, which will now put Tariffs on $11 Billion of EU products! The EU has taken advantage of the U.S. on trade for many years. It will soon stop! Continue reading...

Individual acts of philanthropy, however inspiring, are not the solution to the current crisisFrom sponsored bike rides to tombolas and auctions, fundraising drives are part of the fabric of our lives. They can help to strengthen social ties as well as raising money – as when parents bond with teachers across tables loaded with jumble or cakes. Funds raised in this way have long provided valuable extracurricular extras for schools, helping to pay for trips or special projects such as pantomimes or gardens. And there is no reason why communities should not seek to add to the resources supplied by the state.What they cannot do, and should not be forced to attempt, is compensate for the state’s shortcomings. When schools are forced to fundraise for essentials such as pencils, no amount of the goodwill associated with donations can disguise the underlying problem. Yet an investigation by the Guardian shows that the line has been crossed decisively and that such drives are becoming routine. About 100 schools in England have Amazon wishlists including such items as erasers and glue; another 10 are asking for soap, vacuum bags or other cleaning products. Last month, one Surrey headteacher revealed that cuts have led to her helping to clean her school’s toilets and serving in the canteen. Evidence of the damaging effect of cuts on special needs provision and in narrowing the curriculum is widespread. Last month 7,000 headteachers united to warn of a “funding crisis” in a letter to parents sent after education secretary Damian Hinds refused to meet them. They are right. Continue reading...

World Economic Outlook refers to ‘large, long-lasting negative impacts’ on Britain and EU

Trade wars, protests in France and Italy’s plight are all potential pitfalls for the world’s economy

US and European policymakers once believed they had the tools to deal with sluggish recoveryNot too long ago, the conventional wisdom held that “Japanification” could never happen in western economies. Leading US economists argued that if the combined threat of weak growth, disinflation and perpetually low interest rates ever materialised, policymakers would have the tools to deal with it. They had no problem lecturing the Japanese about the need for bold measures to pull their country out of a decades-old rut. Japanification was regarded as the avoidable consequence of poor policymaking, not as an inevitability.And yet the spectre of Japanification now looms over the west. After the 2008 financial crisis the recoveries in Europe and the US were more sluggish and less inclusive than the majority of policymakers, politicians and economists expected. More recently, hopes for achieving “escape velocity” out of the “new normal” of low growth and persistent disinflationary pressure have been dashed in Europe and Japan, and some worry that they may be receding in the US.Related: Why is Trump easing financial rules when Europe has opposing view? | Howard Davies Continue reading...

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon decries socialism. Unless of course it’s the banks that need a government bailoutIn his annual letter to shareholders, distributed last week, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon took aim at socialism, warning it would be “a disaster for our country,” because it produces “stagnation, corruption and often worse.”Dimon should know. He was at the helm when JPMorgan received a $25bn socialist-like bailout in 2008, after it and other Wall Street banks almost tanked because of their reckless loans.Related: Panic is on the agenda at Davos – but it’s too little too late | Aditya ChakraborttyRobert Reich, a former US secretary of labor, is professor of public policy at the University of California at Berkeley and the author of Saving Capitalism: For the Many, Not the Few and The Common Good. He is also a columnist for Guardian US Continue reading...

Normally robust services sector leads the rout, according to BDO optimism indexBusiness confidence has crashed to the lowest point since 2012, and the economy is only growing because firms are stockpiling ahead of Brexit, according to a key sentiment indicator.The BDO optimism index, which charts how businesses expect output to develop in the next three to six months, fell faster in March that at any time since the bleakest days in the aftermath of the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008. Continue reading...

When Trump won the election, photographer Brian Rose made straight for the gambling town – to show the reality behind his billionaire boasts. The broken city he captured speaks volumes about today’s AmericaWhen Donald Trump opened the towering Trump Taj Mahal Casino in Atlantic City in March 1990, he declared it “the eighth wonder of the world” and joined in the celebrations at a launch ceremony filled with portly actors dressed as genies brandishing tacky golden lamps. Even though it was purchased with almost $700m worth of junk bonds – which meant the Taj had to come up with $94m a year just to pay off its debts, and $1m a day to be profitable – Trump insisted the casino would make Atlantic City great again, returning the area to its prohibition-era glory days.When photographer Brian Rose arrived in the city in 2016, the bankrupt Taj was practically empty. His images of the building’s exterior look eerily quiet, as if all its workers had left in a sudden hurry, with what was once a thriving casino now unkempt and surrounded by damaged sand dunes. He photographed a family of stray cats nesting in a spot where gamblers might once have collapsed in a drunken stupor.The fact that Atlantic City is freezing cold for at least two thirds of the year doesn't help Continue reading...

In 1846 Robert Peel defied his party with a repeal, dooming them to years in the wildernessThe mood in the Conservative party is fractious. Backbench MPs are at odds with their own prime minister. An issue that has been bubbling away beneath the surface for decades has burst out into fratricidal warfare. Ireland is central to the political crisis.That was Britain in early 1846 when Sir Robert Peel used the Irish potato famine to push through the repeal of the Corn Laws, splitting the party in the process but the parallels between mid-19th century Britain and today are obvious. The fear for the Tories is a long spell in the political wilderness: it took 28 years after 1846 for the Conservatives to form a majority government. Continue reading...

While his predecessor and proponents of no-deal vanish into fantasy, the governor is clear about the dangers we faceWhen my old friend Mervyn King completed his 10-year term as governor of the Bank of England in June 2013, I was deputed, as one of the older journalists who attended his press conferences over the years, to make some farewell remarks.I praised him for the frank, even-handed and (almost) always enlightening way in which he had handled the press conferences associated with the Bank’s regular inflation reports and the deliberations of the monetary policy committee the governor chairs. And I meant it.Many Remainers harbour doubts about the way the EU operates. But economic self-harm is not the route to sensible reform Continue reading...

Flaws in the global economy that led to the 2008 financial crisis were papered over rather than dealt withLast week marked the 10th anniversary of the London G20 summit, an event that took place at the low point in the deepest slump since the 1930s, yet represented the high point of international cooperation.A decade on, the global outlook is once again darkening. World trade growth is at its weakest since 2009, the protectionism that the London summit eschewed has reared its head, and central banks have responded to faltering growth by scaling down plans to raise interest rates. Continue reading...

Negotiators meet again on Monday to resolve dispute that has cast a shadow over global financial marketsChina said “new progress” had been made in trade talks with the United States as the two sides prepare to resume discussions next week to try to secure a pact that would end a tit-for-tat tariff battle that has cast a shadow over global markets.In a short statement on Sunday, Chinese news agency Xinhua said the remaining issues would be handled through “various effective means”.Related: IMF chief warns of slower growth for most countries worldwide Continue reading...

The non-farm payrolls showed 196,000 jobs were created in March, but wage growth slowed to 3.2% and manufacturing jobs fell unexpectedly

Manufacturing, which has added jobs for 19 consecutive months, lost jobs in March, shedding 6,000 positionsThe US added 196,000 jobs in March bouncing back from a sharp drop in February.The latest figures will be a relief for those concerned that the long economic recovery is running out of steam. But they also contain a worrying wrinkle: manufacturing, which has added jobs for 19 consecutive months, lost jobs in March, shedding 6,000 positions.Related: Raft of woeful forecasts spells an end to Trump’s economic bragging rights Continue reading...

ONS says Britain achieving growth of only a quarter the level seen a decade agoBritain has maintained its dismal productivity record, with the rise in worker efficiency in 2018 only a quarter of the level seen before the financial crisis a decade ago.Amid fears Brexit uncertainty is set to further damage productivity growth, holding back improvements in living standards, the Office for National Statistics said labour productivity grew by only 0.5% last year compared to 2017.Related: UK worker productivity growth falls to two-year low on back of Brexit concernsRelated: We’re working like it’s 1975, but the jobs boom isn’t all it seems. Here’s why | Larry Elliott Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, including another worrying drop in demand for German manufactured goods

Concern that overvaluation, low interest rates and loose lending will affect stabilityA growing number of homes in the US and China are teetering on the brink of a price slump that would drag their economies into a recession, the International Monetary Fund has warned.Using the latest evidence from global housing markets, the Washington-based organisation said there was a clear increase in the risk of a housing price collapse in both countries after years of ultra-low interest rates and loose lending by financial institutions.Related: A burst of good news can’t hide the economic hazards ahead in 2019Related: Raft of woeful forecasts spells an end to Trump’s economic bragging rights Continue reading...