by Presented by Anushka Asthana with Oliver Laughland on (#4M9B5)
Mass protests triggered by leaked text messages have led to the resignation of Ricardo Rosselló. Oliver Laughland discusses his time on the island. And: Larry Elliott on why sterling is at a 28-month lowHundreds of thousands of people have lined the streets of Puerto Rico over the past couple of weeks in some of the largest demonstrations in the US territory’s history. They began in response to hundreds of pages of leaked text messages between the governor, Ricardo Rosselló, and 11 members of his inner circle, which made homophobic and sexist jokes and mocked the victims of Hurricane Maria.However, the problems go further back than July. The Rosselló administration has been plagued by allegations of corruption and mismanagement during the response to Hurricane Maria. Shortly before the messages were leaked, the FBI arrested five former government officials and contractors accused of misappropriating millions of dollars in federal funds given to the island after the disaster. Continue reading...
by Peter Walker Political correspondent on (#4M93M)
Business reiterates importance of frictionless trade with EU as foreign minister heads to AsiaBusiness groups have stressed the importance of continued frictionless trade with the EU after Dominic Raab used his first overseas trip as foreign secretary to urge UK firms to “raise their game†and focus more on exporting to other regions.Organisations including the CBI and Make UK, which represents the manufacturing sector, said that while British companies had already expanded to countries across the globe, exports to the EU accounted for almost half of the total. Continue reading...
US president sends series of tweets and suggests agreement might be delayedMarkets have fallen sharply across Europe after Donald Trump reignited trade war fears with a series of tweets attacking China’s handling of negotiations with the US.With a two-day meeting between the countries’ trade teams due to begin in Shanghai, the US president said China’s economy was “doing very badly†and added negotiators “just don’t come through†on agreements, including promises to buy US farm goods.China is doing very badly, worst year in 27 - was supposed to start buying our agricultural product now - no signs that they are doing so. That is the problem with China, they just don’t come through. Our Economy has become MUCH larger than the Chinese Economy is last 3 years.......to ripoff the USA, even bigger and better than ever before. The problem with them waiting, however, is that if & when I win, the deal that they get will be much tougher than what we are negotiating now...or no deal at all. We have all the cards, our past leaders never got it! Continue reading...
Money markets did not take a disorderly departure seriously, but do now. So should JohnsonBritish holidaymakers heading abroad for their summer holidays might not thank him for it, but the fall in the value of the pound to its lowest level in 28 months is evidence that Boris Johnson’s Brexit strategy is having an impact.The currency markets never took the idea seriously that the UK would leave the EU without a deal when Theresa May was prime minister. That has changed in the past five days as the new government has rammed home the message that the 31 October deadline for departure is set in stone.Related: No-deal Brexit: how likely is it and what would be the impact?Related: No, a falling pound is not good. It’s a sign of weakness and decline | Dan Davies Continue reading...
Britain has a vocal weak-currency lobby but depreciation is not a route to long-term success, as Italy could tell youLike the weather, the foreign exchange market changes every day and appears at the end of the evening news. Unlike the weather, though, the external value of the pound isn’t directly experienced by most people, except when they go on holiday. This creates something of a cognitive vacuum – into which a lot of politicised folk theories seem to get sucked and which makes the exchange rate one of our lowest-quality debates. Now the pound has reached its lowest level against the dollar for two years as the market starts taking the possibility of no-deal Brexit seriously, meaning that sterling makes a rare appearance as a leading news story.On the one hand, there’s a tendency to regard the exchange rate as akin to the national share price, and to take pride in the fact that one pound buys more than one unit of nearly every currency in the world, apart from a few oil state dinars. On the other hand, the UK has a surprisingly vocal weak-currency lobby, based on memories of past episodes of tight interest-rate policy and of the squeeze placed on our manufacturing exports back in the 1980s, when we were briefly an oil state ourselves. To a regrettable extent, foreign exchange analysis is all about finding a story that’s convenient for your (political or financial) position and telling it as forcefully as possible.Related: What does the falling pound mean for holidays and prices? Continue reading...
Retaliatory proposal follows France’s announced levy for US technology companiesA threat by Donald Trump to tax French wines in retaliation to a proposed levy aimed at big US technology companies is “completely moronicâ€, France’s agriculture minister has said.French plans to place a 3% tax on the “GAFAs†– Google, Amazon, Facebook and Apple – drew an angry response from the US president, who warned last week that his administration would announce “substantial reciprocal actionâ€.Related: France hits back at US over tax on digital giants Continue reading...
Bank of England governor had been cited as contender to take over from Christine LagardeThe shortlist of European candidates to lead the International Monetary Fund has been reduced to a handful of names – but Mark Carney has not made the final cut.The Bank of England governor had been cited as a contender to take over from Christine Lagarde, who stands down as the fund’s managing director in September to move to the European Central Bank. Despite being a previous bookies’ favourite, Carney is not on a shortlist drawn up by France’s finance minister, Bruno Le Maire, who is organising the process of selecting Europe’s candidate. Continue reading...
by Larry Elliott and Richard Partington on (#4M4R5)
In the first of a new series, we look at the PM’s promises and their costThe last day of the parliamentary session before the summer recess normally marks the period when the Treasury starts to wind down for the summer. The chancellor takes a break and a skeleton team takes control. But not this year.Seated next to Boris Johnson as he made his first statement to MPs last Thursday was Sajid Javid, the new chancellor of the exchequer, and the man given the task of delivering the prime minister’s tax and spending pledges this autumn. Continue reading...
As the US president at last gets his interest rate cut he must wish he could have had the bold ECB boss at the FedCentral bankers rarely say anything that sticks in the memory. Mark Carney has been at the Bank of England for the past six years and is known as the rock star central banker, and not always in a good way. His answers to questions at press conferences are often like solos from the lead guitarist of a 1970s prog rock band: long and boring.Indeed, only two central bankers have ever come up what might be called zingers. William McChesney Martin, who ran the US central bank for almost two decades from 1951 to 1970, said the Federal Reserve was in the position of a “chaperone who has ordered the punch bowl removed just when the party was really warming upâ€.Related: Fed chairman hints at first interest rate cut in over a decade Continue reading...
We have seen external shocks and misguided policies push Britain into crisis before. But never willed self-harm like this‘While we were strongly opposed to the Trotskyist revolution that has taken place in this country, now that it has occurred the important thing is that it should be made to work properly.â€It was on something like those lines that a few of us wrote a parody of a Financial Times leading article many years ago on a very slow news day, when I was working for the FT.Perhaps he really is deluded and believes that a period of 'optimism' can work miracles Continue reading...
Government action is needed to preserve Britain’s high streets. But no law can protect a company from unrestrained ambitionEven by Mike Ashley’s standards, Sport’s Direct’s annual results statement on Friday was an extraordinary performance. The idiosyncratic billionaire’s comments included expressing regret about buying House of Fraser last year due to its “terminal†problems; urging the City regulator to offer voluntary drugs tests to the chief executives of listed businesses; revealing that none of the big four auditors are able or willing to work with Sports Direct; and railing at length over the circumstances of his company’s failed bid for control of Debenhams. Oh, and there will be no profit guidance for next year.The coup de grace, the show-stopper, came at the end: an unresolved €674m (£605m) tax bill from the Belgian authorities. The final paragraph of the results came out of the blue and will almost certainly trigger a punitive response from investors on Monday and, in the medium term, an attempt to punish the company’s board. Continue reading...
If the Conservative party wants to win over large sections of the poor then it will have to tackle the damagingly high levels of inequality in the UKOne the eve of the 2015 election, one that most pollsters thought David Cameron would not win, Boris Johnson gave perhaps the most interesting and insightful interview of his career. Sensing the ball was about to come loose from the back of the scrum, as Mr Johnson might put it, he told the Spectator magazine that the Conservatives were finished if they continued to be seen as defenders of the rich and, particularly, the privileged. He argued that “the wealth gap has been allowed to get too big†and is now “outrageousâ€. His post-mortem assumed that Mr Cameron was politically a dead man walking and about to be felled in a living standards election. Not for the first time, Mr Johnson’s timing failed him.Mr Cameron won. Mr Johnson had to wait another four years before he got his chance to run the country. His instincts, however, were right. The Tories are seen as “for themselvesâ€, “out of touch†and for rich families and pinstriped City workers. Voters don’t look at the Conservatives and see themselves. Yet Mr Johnson campaigned to become Tory leader on a platform of tax cuts for the rich combined with a staunch defence of bankers. He was bankrolled by billionaires and hedge fund managers. Mr Johnson’s outreach to the rich was understandable given that six out of seven of the voters he was canvassing do not believe that government should redistribute income from the better-off to those who are less well-off. That explains why Mr Johnson has backed the Laffer curve, a discredited theory that claims lower tax rates for the rich will lead to higher tax revenues. Continue reading...
Decline was slower than expected as US gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 2.1% between April and JuneUS economic growth slowed in the second quarter of 2019 as trade disputes and a global slowdown took their toll, the commerce department announced on Friday.Revised figures from previous quarters showed the US narrowly missed Donald Trump’s pledge to grow the economy by over 3% last year. The commerce department pegged growth at 2.9% in 2018.Related: Americans positive on economy but views deeply split by politics and wealthQ2 GDP Up 2.1% Not bad considering we have the very heavy weight of the Federal Reserve anchor wrapped around our neck. Almost no inflation. USA is set to Zoom! Continue reading...
by Written by Andy Beckett, read by Lucy Scott and pr on (#4KZEP)
After decades of rightwing dominance, a transatlantic movement of leftwing economists is building a practical alternative to neoliberalism. By Andy Beckett• Read the text version here Continue reading...
Economists remain fixated on the need for 2% inflation. It’s time to move onThe Federal Reserve has some reasons to cut interest rates at its 31 July meeting, or subsequently if the US economy weakens. (There is also a case for holding rates steady, if growth remains as strong as it has been over the past year.) But one argument for easing is less persuasive: a perceived imperative to get US inflation up to or above 2%.The Fed set the 2% inflation target in January 2012 under its then chair, Ben Bernanke, after some other central banks had already done so. Japan followed suit a year later, shortly after the prime minister, Shinzo Abe, returned to power on the promise that monetary policy would raise inflation (Japan had previously suffered from falling prices).Related: Does setting inflation targets cloud our view of the economy? | Robert Shiller Continue reading...
His cabinet is stuffed with Thatcherite true believers who will hardly be inclined to undertake a vital reboot of the economySo farewell then, Project Fear. Out go the predictions of imminent economic catastrophe, in comes Mr Brightside and his vision of the sunny uplands that lie ahead. Before he became prime minister, Harold Wilson talked of how the Britain of the future would be forged in the white heat of the technological revolution. For Boris Johnson, it is full-fibre broadband.Little has changed since 1963. Then, as now, Britain was strong in science and rich in new ideas. Then, as now, it was less good than other countries at exploiting them. Wilson’s optimism drained away after he arrived in office, as Johnson’s may well also, and for the same reason: a sterling crisis. But for now the country will be love-bombed with the new prime minister’s can-do spirit.The causes of Brexit lie not in leftwing economic policies but in Thatcherism and austerity after 2010Related: How representative is Boris Johnson's new cabinet? Continue reading...
As trade talks are set to resume after a two-month halt, an aid package will see producers paid up to $150 per acreThe US government will pay American farmers hurt by the trade war with China between $15 and $150 per acre in an aid package totaling $16bn with farmers in the South poised to see higher rates than in the midwest.As US and Chinese negotiators prepare to meet face-to-face for the first time since talks on the dispute collapsed in May, the agriculture secretary, Sonny Perdue, said the package showed that Donald Trump knew farmers were “fighting the fightâ€.Related: Donald Trump's trade war hurting China more than US, says IMFRelated: Even Trump may ultimately retreat from the cost of the China trade war Continue reading...
Pew study finds richer, Republican Americans more likely to view economy positively than poorer Americans and DemocratsAmericans are more positive about the state of the US economy than they have been in nearly two decades, but their views are deeply divided by political leaning and income, according to a new survey.Pew Research Center’s latest report on people’s views of the US economy reveals a wide split of opinion on the state of the economy and who should get the credit for it. While a majority of the public (55%) describe national economic conditions as “excellent or goodâ€, those views vary wildly depending on political convictions and income.Related: US job growth rebounds as economy adds 224,000 jobs in June Continue reading...
Readers share their views on the Liberal Democrats in the week that Jo Swinson was elected as their new leaderJo Swinson asserts that Jeremy Corbyn can’t be trusted on Brexit (Report, 24 July). Maybe it’s worth asking whether she can be trusted on many of the things that contributed to the referendum outcome she wants to overturn. She voted for scrapping the education maintenance allowance and for increasing tuition fees; for reducing housing benefits; against letting benefits rise in line with inflation; against increasing taxes for those earning over £150,000; against taxes on bankers’ bonuses; for reducing corporation tax; against restricting NHS provision to private patients.Simply resetting the Brexit clock won’t address the disquiet that produced the leave victory. We need a government committed to, among other things, an economic model that distributes national wealth more appropriately – around the country, and across all sections of society. Corbyn has a long-standing commitment to tackling economic and social inequality and Jo Swinson condemns herself by turning her back on him.
Outgoing president says outlook is worsening and inflation is well below targetThe European Central Bank has given a clear signal that it will join the US Federal Reserve in seeking to boost global growth as it expressed concern about flagging levels of activity and undershooting inflation in the eurozone.Financial markets were left fully braced for a cut in interest rates from the ECB in September, together with a resumption of money creation under its quantitative easing programme. Continue reading...
CBI calls figures ‘hugely concerning’ amid Brexit uncertainty on the high streetBritain’s retailers have recorded the longest period of falling sales for almost eight years, fuelling mounting concern for the economy ahead of Brexit.The Confederation of British Industry said retail sales across the country had dropped for a third month running in July, marking the longest period for sliding sales since 2011.Related: High street suffers 'summer slump' as Brexit and wet weather bite Continue reading...
Much of modern China’s epic growth was driven by private enterprise – but under Xi Jinping, the Communist party has returned to being the ultimate authority in business as well as politics. By Richard McGregorWhen Xi Jinping took power in 2012, he extolled the importance of the state economy at every turn, while all around him watched as China’s high-speed economy was driven by private entrepreneurs. Since then, Xi has engineered an unmistakable shift in policy. At the time he took office, private firms were responsible for about 50% of all investment in China and about 75% of economic output. But as Nicholas Lardy, a US economist who has long studied the Chinese economy, concluded in a recent study, “Since 2012, private, market-driven growth has given way to a resurgence of the role of the state.â€From the Mao era onwards, Chinese state firms have always had a predominant role in the economy, and the Communist party has always maintained direct control over state firms. For more than a decade, the party has also tried to ensure it played a role inside private businesses. But in his first term in office, Xi has overseen a sea change in how the party approaches the economy, dramatically strengthening the party’s role in both government and private businesses.Related: Inside China's audacious global propaganda campaign Continue reading...
ASX200 heads towards pre-GFC record, but weak economic growth spells a ‘potentially dangerous’ situationA lot has changed since November 2007. Back then, John Howard was still prime minister, you could buy a nice house in Sydney for less than $500,000 and no one had ever heard of Instagram.It was also the month when Australia’s benchmark stock market index, the ASX200, reached an all-time high of 6,828.7. With the full extent of the US subprime crisis still hidden, all seemed set fair for the local market to continue growing on the back of the mining boom and strong banks.Related: Reserve Bank interest rates cut to historic low of 1% – as it happened Continue reading...
From nationwide full-fibre broadband to 20,000 extra police officers, here’s what 10 of his plans might costTaxes will be cut and public spending increased if Boris Johnson makes good on the pledges he has made in recent weeks while campaigning to be prime minister.In a marked reversal of the fiscal restraint enforced over the past nine years, Johnson has committed himself to a multibillion pound programme of measures paid for by extra government borrowing.A cabinet reshuffleRelated: Fishy figures: Boris Johnson's public service pledges are fantasy economics | Richard Vize Continue reading...
Brexit uncertainty and impact of Iran sanctions also likely to slow world growth, says FundDonald Trump’s claim that his protectionist measures are hurting China more than the US has received support from the International Monetary Fund in new forecasts showing how a fresh slowdown in the global economy has been concentrated in emerging economies.The Washington-based IMF said the outlook was gloomier than it envisaged three months ago due to the tit-for-tat tariff war between the world’s two biggest economies, Brexit uncertainty and the impact of sanctions against Iran on oil prices. Continue reading...
by Larry Elliott and Kalyeena Makortoff on (#4KQYC)
Brexit fears and slow global growth have hit output in manufacturing sectorA double whammy of Brexit uncertainty and a slowdown in global trade has seen order books in Britain’s factories shrink at their fastest pace since the financial crisis, the CBI has said.Urging the next prime minister, confirmed on Tuesday as Boris Johnson, to strike a deal with the EU, the employers’ organisation said industrial output also fell in the latest quarter, for the first time since the spring of 2016.Related: Weary firms gear up to hit the Brexit pause button – for a second time Continue reading...
Leaving without deal will ‘throw concrete’ in wheels of British-EU trade, says economistThe mounting risk of no-deal Brexit may have pushed the UK economy into a recession already, one of the country’s foremost economic forecasters has warned.Sounding the alarm before the expected elevation of Boris Johnson to Downing Street this week, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said there was a one in four chance the country is in a recession currently.Related: Trump calls for US interest rate cut; fears of UK Brexit recession – business live Continue reading...
Star listing of domestic tech firms is seen as an attempt to bypass US markets in trade warChina’s tech industry has received a vote of confidence from domestic investors after shares in Shanghai’s new Nasdaq-style stock exchange rose by up to 520% on their debut.The launch of the Star listing of domestic tech firms is seen as China’s answer to the US’s premier tech index, and an attempt to sidestep American markets in Beijing’s long-running trade war with Washington. Continue reading...
Unconventional policies may have staved off short-term economic collapse but they may not foster long-term growthIn recent years, central banks have made a large policy wager. They bet that the protracted use of unconventional and experimental measures would provide an effective bridge to more comprehensive measures that would generate high inclusive growth and minimise the risk of financial instability.But central banks have repeatedly had to double down, in the process becoming increasingly aware of the growing risks to their credibility, effectiveness and political autonomy. Ironically, central bankers may now get a response from other policymaking entities, which, instead of helping to normalise their operations, would make their task a lot tougher.Related: The ECB must heed calls to review its policy framework | Stefan Gerlach Continue reading...
Protecting people against the chaos wreaked by automation should be a priority. But populists would rather talk about tradeThis week’s nightmare is the arrival of Boris Johnson; the autumn brings the Brexit watershed. Soon after, the 2020 US election takes shape, compounding the sense that politics everywhere is in a state of complete unpredictability. All that is clear, perhaps, is that the forces gathered around Brexit, Donald Trump and the various brands of European populism still think things are going their way.For some people, everything comes down to the failures of neoliberalism and its inbuilt globalisation, and the long aftershocks from the crash of 2008. Others, with very good reason, focus on racism and bigotry, and the spectacle of white men who are apparently convinced that their time at the top is about to come to a close and therefore lashing out. There are also people who seem to think that any sober, cause-and-effect explanations of a global crisis are impossible amid the mess: they tend to take refuge in rather specious ideas about “collective derangement†and national nervous breakdowns.The ongoing transformation of production and consumption by computing power is everywhereRelated: Automation threatens 1.5 million workers in Britain, says ONS Continue reading...
Does a doctor in England’s capital really work three times harder than one in Merthyr Tydfil?Britain’s regional divide is well known and well documented. The richer bits of the country tend to be clustered below a line drawn from the Wash to the Severn estuary, while London is so different from everywhere else that it may as well be its own city-state.There is also another divide: between the big cities and the smaller towns. The north-west may be less prosperous than the south-east but on average people are better off in Manchester than they are in Blackpool.There is a demand for solicitors in Bodmin just as there is in Barking Continue reading...
Is the economy to blame? Sure. But there’s something else behind the trucking industry’s woes: mismanagementTimes are good right? Economic growth is strong. Unemployment is low. Business and consumer confidence remains high. It’s pretty easy to say that most small business owners are doing pretty well this year. Except if you’re in the trucking business.That’s according to a number of recent reports that cover the freight industry. They are not great. Continue reading...
Fighting talk on Brexit from Jeremy Hunt and Boris Johnson has inevitably hit the value of sterlingSun, sea and sinking sterling. News of a fresh decline in the value of the pound was greeted with forbearance by travellers at Luton airport last week. The currency has been under pressure at various times since the referendum, having fallen by 14% against the euro since the vote, and it hit a six-month low of €1.105 last Wednesday in the wake of renewed pledges by Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt over pursuing a no-deal Brexit.Against the US dollar, sterling took even more of a battering last week, falling at one stage to below $1.24.After what one currency analyst described as a no-deal arms race between Johnson and Hunt, the only way for the pound was down Continue reading...
The Conservatives would use cash for tax cuts, while Labour plans investment. But the economic climate is chillyAs the next Tory leader, and possibly a general election, loom, the UK electorate must consider one fundamental economic question: does it want a huge increase in government borrowing?Both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt are ready to break out of the austerity straitjacket and spend huge sums. Not just to blast their way through the chaos that will follow leaving the European Union on 31 October, but also to inflate spending on a long shopping list of items, from social care to defence.Labour may find that, following decades of neglect, pouring financial fertiliser on the regions has little effectRelated: Jeremy Corbyn's spending plan for public services backed by majority Continue reading...
Allegra Madgwick challenges the idea that the prime minister is a feminist champion, Hester Doherty questions how she stood up for domestic abuse victims, and Judy Stober thinks we are too kind. Plus letters from Les Bright, Mark Lewinski, Kip Bennett and Tony ColeThe question of whether Theresa May is a feminist champion posed by Martha Gill in her opinion piece (Journal, 15 July), surely depends on what sort of feminism you are talking about. As a socialist feminist, the idea that one of the great movements of human liberation in our times could be reduced to getting a few more female Tory MPs into parliament is truly depressing.Gill acknowledges that Tory austerity policies have been terrible for working-class women, but makes no mention of how the scandals of Windrush, Grenfell and the hostile policy towards asylum seekers and immigrants, which can be directly traced to May’s time at the Home Office, show class politics at its most brutal and demonstrate indifference to the lives of the most vulnerable women. Continue reading...
Highest June deficit for four years shows economic slowdown is feeding throughPledges by Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt to cut taxes and increase spending have come just as the UK’s public finances have shown a marked deterioration, according to the latest official figures.In what analysts called a “reality check†for the two Conservative prime ministerial contenders, the Office for National Statistics said the government needed to borrow £7.2bn last month – more than double the £3.3bn in the same month a year ago.The government's finances are measured each month by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Tax receipts make up the vast majority of government income, while spending on welfare and services make up most of its outgoings.Related: Fishy figures: Boris Johnson's public service pledges are fantasy economics | Richard Vize Continue reading...
One troy ounce reaches $1,452.60 amid increased US-Iran tensionsGold prices have hit their highest levels in six years as investors brace for an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve and seek a safe haven amid tensions between Washington and Tehran.The price of one troy ounce of gold peaked at $1,452.60 on Friday morning, the highest point since May 2013, with fears over the Persian Gulf standoff also driving up the price of a commodity that is viewed as a market refuge during geopolitical crises.Related: UK's June budget deficit hits four-year high in blow to next PM - business live Continue reading...
The chancellor has said he fears the cost of a no-deal Brexit to the British economy. Speaking at the G7 in France, Hammond said that a report published by the Office for Budget Responsibility showed that even the most benign version of no deal 'would be a very significant hit to the UK economy'. The OBR revealed that it would plunge Britain into a recession
Office for Budget Responsibility believes economy would shrink by 2% by end of 2020A no-deal Brexit would plunge Britain into a recession that would shrink the economy by 2%, push unemployment above 5% and send house prices tumbling by around 10%, according to the government’s independent forecasting body.In an assessment of the impact of Britain leaving the EU without a deal at the end of October, the Office for Budget Responsibility said the result would be a year-long downturn that would increase borrowing by £30bn a year.The Office for Budget Responsibility is the government’s independent forecaster, which gives its verdict on the outlook for growth and the public finances twice a year. Continue reading...
World leaders to back call to help rural poor and women access mobile bankingWorld leaders are to pledge to shape the technological revolution sweeping through Africa by acting to lift the threat of 400 million predominantly rural women being excluded from digital financial services.G7 finance ministers meeting in France are to endorse a paper from the Gates Foundation saying there is a serious risk that digital technology and mobile banking will bypass millions of women in Africa, leaving them disempowered for a generation.Related: Millions more have a bank account, but what is the impact on global poverty? Continue reading...