Economics | The Guardian

Graham Sowter takes issue with a recent letter by Tim Worstall of the Adam Smith Institute that cited data suggesting that income inequality has decreased slightly in the UK in the last decadeThere are lies, damned lies and Gini index statistics. A single statistical measure invented in 1912 cannot hope to capture the nature of inequality in an entire country in 2019. Tim Worstall of the Adam Smith Institute (Letters, 2 October) is careful to refer to income inequality, as do the Tory politicians who often make the same claim, but accumulated wealth is now a very important component of inequality: 10% of the population own over 45% of total wealth.There are separate Gini indices for property wealth, financial wealth and private pension wealth, also published by the Office for National Statistics, that all have much higher values than the index for income. Effective disposable incomes are also crucial; if you are spending 30%-50% of your post-tax income on rent, you are not as rich as the Gini index says you are. Rents now represent a significant transfer of money from the poor to the rich. Continue reading...

Just like after 1945, a new dawn of international bodies is required – this time to protect and empower the global southHuman civilisation is facing a crisis on a scale that we have not seen since the second world war. We must finally respond in a way that meets this immense challenge.The climate crisis is of our own creation, particularly that of the richest countries whose development has been based on exploiting natural resources without end. The casualties are piling up – some countries and entire communities, in particular island nations, are the most exposed and least prepared: after Hurricane Dorian, we have all seen the devastation in the Bahamas.The World Bank, the IMF and the UN have ultimately exacerbated the climate crisisRelated: As the climate collapses, we can either stand together – or perish alone | Tim Hollo Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of business, economics and markets as investors focus on chances of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts

The feared large-scale exodus of firms and financiers does not seem to be under wayIt is now well over three years since the UK voted, by a narrow but significant margin, to leave the EU. Yet we still have no idea what kind of economic relationship the UK will have with the 27 countries it leaves behind. (Some of the debate in London recalls in its insularity the apocryphal 1930s headline: “Fog in Channel: continent cut off.”) Insofar as one can hazard a guess, the most likely outcome seems to be a more remote relationship than leave supporters talked about in the referendum campaign and than most commentators envisaged shortly after the vote.But despite that change of direction, and the certain loss of the so-called passport, which would allow financial services to be sold freely across the EU, the feared large-scale exodus of firms and financiers from London does not seem to be under way. The French bakeries and German sausage shops are still doing a roaring trade. Why?Related: Anxiety running high about London's future as a financial centre | Barry EichengreenRelated: The future of the global economy hinges on four games of chicken | Nouriel Roubini Continue reading...

The Bank rate is already low and Brexit overshadows everything, but look elsewhere too – the global economy is not in good healthCall it a full house of poor economic news. The services sector is contracting, according to the purchasing managers’ index, joining the manufacturing and construction industries in negative territory. In big picture terms, there are no bright spots.The official data, which measures actual economic activity as opposed to managers’ view of prospects, may yet reveal growth in the July to September quarter. But you would have to be a supreme optimistic to believe the figure will be greater than 0.3% – and even that outcome would represent a feeble bounce from decline in the second quarter. Continue reading...

The fiscal irresponsibility of Greece was not the cause of the 2010 crisis, write Prof Philip Arestis and Dr Yiannis Kitromilides, while Prof Mary Mellor argues for greater state spendingProfessor Jeffrey Frankel (Why Germany must not make the same fiscal mistakes as the US, 1 October) claims that “the 2010 euro crisis would not have happened had Greece, after joining the euro, maintained the fiscal discipline called for under the stability and growth pact”. This narrative of the eurozone crisis is very familiar but also very misleading. If fiscal indiscipline by Greece was the cause of the eurozone crisis in 2010, why, at the same time, did the fiscally prudent governments of Ireland, Spain and Portugal find themselves in the same sinking boat as Greece, in need of international rescue? The fiscal irresponsibility of Greece caused the bankruptcy of Greece, but the 2010 eurozone crisis was caused primarily by misbehaviour and indiscipline in the private sectors of the economies of the eurozone periphery. Professor Frankel’s sympathy for “Germans’ much-maligned attitude toward debts and deficits” is misplaced. The German attitude to – some would say obsession with – fiscal discipline and balanced budgets was certainly not sufficient to prevent the eurozone crisis. A strong case can be made that this attitude is also not necessary.

Surprise contraction comes amid sliding sales, higher costs, job losses and disruptive BrexitBritain has edged closer to its first recession since the financial crisis after the country’s dominant service sector unexpectedly plunged into contraction last month, in a sign of the mounting stress facing the economy as Brexit looms.According to IHS Markit and the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply (Cips), activity in the sector fell as companies reported sliding sales, job losses, cancelled and postponed projects and weak investment levels.One of the two main definitions of recession in the UK is at least two quarters of negative economic growth. Judged by this yardstick, the UK was last in recession in 2008-09, when there were six consecutive quarters of negative growth. Continue reading...

The IMF alone cannot help troubled states out of a financial hole. Such states need more aid, not more loansIn case you blinked, the Argentine government built up a pile of debt out of almost nothing with surprising speed, and then proceeded to default on it almost as quickly. Compared to the country’s slow-motion 2002 default, the latest crisis feels like 60-second Shakespeare. But in both cases, default was inevitable because the country’s mix of debt, deficits and monetary policy was unsustainable, and the political class was unable to make the necessary adjustments in time.In both cases, loans from the International Monetary Fund seemed only to postpone the inevitable, and, worse, to exacerbate the ultimate collapse. So after the second debacle in Argentina in less than a generation, it’s high time to ask how to refocus the IMF’s mandate for dealing with emerging-market debt crises. How can the IMF be effective in helping countries regain access to private credit markets when any attempt to close unsustainable budget deficits is labelled austerity? The only answer is to increase substantially the resources of international aid agencies (the IMF is a lender). Unfortunately, there seems little appetite for that.Related: Argentina's economic crisis is the result of avoidable mistakesRelated: Are debt crises in Argentina and Turkey a global warning sign? Continue reading...

Stocks drop in Sydney and Tokyo mirroring falls in US and UK, as Washington slaps 25% tariffs on range of European goodsAsian markets have tanked after a below-par US jobs report compounded worries about the world’s top economy, while Washington opened up another front in its trade wars by imposing swingeing tariffs on European goods, including Scotch whisky and French wine.Stocks fell sharply in Tokyo, Sydney and Seoul on Thursday as investors reacted to the surprise new tariffs and also heavy losses in Europe and on Wall Street on Wednesday.Related: Scotch whisky and French wine hit by $7.5bn US tariffs Continue reading...

The 25% levies also include British knitwear and EU cheese and aircraft as White House retaliates for subsidies given to AirbusThe US is set to impose $7.5bn (£6.1bn) of tariffs on exports from the EU including scotch whisky, French wine and cheese and aircraft in retaliation for subsidies given to the aerospace group Airbus after a World Trade Organization (WTO) ruling.Related: Airbus on course to overtake Boeing as biggest planemaker Continue reading...

The number of homeless people dying on our streets is soaring. We have the power to stop thisEven the bald numbers are horrifying. This week, the Office for National Statistics recorded that 726 homeless people died in England and Wales in 2018, a rise of 22% on 2017 and the biggest year-on-year rise since it began collecting data. And they died shockingly early. On the streets, a man can expect to die at about 45 years old, even while the average man will live until 76. For a woman sleeping rough, life expectancy is lower still at 43, while her counterpart in the wider population can expect to live until 81. In one of the richest societies in human history, we still allow people to die decades too soon for want of a secure roof over their heads.A statistic, a tent on the street, a man holding up a scrap of cardboard: homeless people often die as they live, in anonymity amid general indifference. Even our data on the number of people living without a secure home are worryingly sketchy. The housing charity Shelter estimates that at least 320,000 people in Britain sleep rough or in temporary accommodation but warns that figure is likely to be an underestimate as it misses out sofa-surfers and those bedding down in sheds or cars. In an attempt to reveal the humanity behind those numbers, to interrogate the stories buried amid the statistics, the Guardian has launched a series, The Empty Doorway, recounting some of the lives of those who died homeless. Only a few weeks in, it has already uncovered some shocking themes, which demand to be tackled if we are to bring down the homeless death toll. There was the story of talented rapper Jake Humm, living in supported accommodation provided by a local YMCA. Staff there knew he was a suicide risk yet left him alone for at least two days before he killed himself. He was just 22. The YMCA’s internal review of the case, it told our reporters, concluded “there were no errors or omissions in the service we provided”. While mindful of the constraints on staff, financial and otherwise, the goals for the service need to be improved and self-regulation must be supplemented by an independent watchdog. Continue reading...

Manufacturers react to surveys showing declining orders by slashing production and jobsStrong signals that a slowdown in global manufacturing intensified in September sent stock markets tumbling on Wednesday, as leading indices in Europe and the US retreated.In London the FTSE 100 rolled back all the gains made since mid-August as it dropped 237 points to 7,122, falling 3.2% in its biggest one-day fall since 2016. Extending the losses overnight on Asian markets, shares on continental European markets also experienced losses with the Paris CAC falling 3.1% to 5,422. The Dow Jones index in New York compounded its decline on Tuesday by falling close to 500 points on Wednesday, or 1.86%. Continue reading...

The nationalism that taps into people’s angst and dislocation can be effectively challenged with a bazooka of a eurozone budgetLast month Germany’s version of the Sun, Bild, ran a sensationalist attack on the outgoing president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi. Depicting the central banker as “Count Draghila”, replete with vampirish teeth and velvet collar, the article portrayed the ECB boss as a fiend sucking the bank accounts of German savers dry of billions of euros with low interest rates. A day later the tabloid interviewed the head of the German central bank to ram the message home under the headline “Is our money in danger?”. There is an undoubted perception across Europe’s largest economy that the ECB was penalising savers through easy money policies that have given populists a stick to beat mainstream politicians with. However, the release of the latest economic data shows that Mr Draghi was right and German sentiment was wrong.It is increasingly clear the risk of recession in Europe is rising. Growth is sputtering while inflation is falling. The eurozone manufacturing sector suffered its worst month in seven years while inflation dropped to a three-year low. Mr Draghi has for years attempted to resuscitate the eurozone’s sluggish economy through monetary means. Last month the ECB lowered interest rates further into negative territory and restarted the ECB programme of buying bonds. Yet as one economist perceptively put it, the problem for the eurozone is that “weak credit growth is driven by the lack of demand from creditworthy borrowers rather than the supply cost of finance”. This can be solved in part by governments stepping up to boost demand in the eurozone. Mr Draghi is right to say it is no longer tenable to claim that monetary policy alone can deal with the entrenched problems of the continental economy. Instead he correctly called for fiscal policy to become the main economic instrument to sustain demand in the eurozone. Continue reading...

Guardian readers discuss the Conservative party conference, and the party’s political legacy so farDescribing the chancellor’s speech as “hyperbole that crumbles under scrutiny” is a kind way of making clear that it was nothing more than a cynical jumble of half-baked, half-true assertions (This party split the country. A cash splurge can’t repair it, 1 October). We’ve grown used to – but shouldn’t accept – duplicity and hyperbole. Examples of misdirected but eye-catching spending include how the problems associated with social care, of quality, availability and cost, will not disappear as a result of a hospital-building programme. Communities cut off by swingeing cuts to public transport as a consequence of reductions in local authority funding that once used to subsidise such routes will not benefit from plans to upgrade roads – or the introduction of contactless payments on buses that don’t run.Of course low-paid workers will benefit from significant increases in the national minimum wage, but such gains will disappear under the weight of fast-rising food and fuel bills as quickly as they emerged.

There is no simple switch that will allow us to replace the champions of neoliberal capitalism with well-intentioned workers and other public figures, writes Richard Tudway. Plus Tim Worstall on data suggesting that income inequality has decreased slightly in the UK in the last decadeGrace Blakeley makes a compelling case for reform of capitalism (No alternative to capitalism? Now workers can take control, 30 September). But I hope she sees that national assets cannot just be transferred to state, worker and community ownership. This overlooks the other indispensable ingredients if our collective bid to move from casino capitalism to a sustainable social market economy is to be realised.As so often is the case there is regrettably little attention paid to the great achievements within the European Union in promoting better and more effective governance at every level, an inclusive corporate culture and capital markets that support long-term development. This lies at the heart of the significant social, political and economic achievements of the Rhineland economies when compared with British and American socioeconomic outturns. Continue reading...

British manufacturers are cutting employment levels at the fastest pace since 2013, despite a renewed surge in stockpiling

Organisation slashes forecast for 2019 trade growth amid US-China dispute and Brexit fears

Move unlikely to significantly boost growth due to limited warehousing capacity ahead of ChristmasBritish manufacturers have ramped up their stockpiling efforts ahead of the new Brexit deadline at the end of the month, amid growing concerns over disruption to the UK economy.According to IHS Markit and the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply (Cips), UK factory output was boosted in September by firms rushing to purchase goods and materials to avoid any potential border delays.Related: Britons have spent £4bn stockpiling goods in case of no-deal BrexitAt 11pm UK time on 31 October the UK would, by default, become a “third country” in terms of relations with the EU, with no overarching post-Brexit plan in place and no transition period. The UK would no longer be paying into the EU budget, nor would it hand over the £39bn divorce payment. Continue reading...

Chancellor promises multibillion-pound rises for hospitals, education and moreWith a general election looming, Boris Johnson has sanctioned a multibillion-pound spending programme announced at the Conservative party conference.Ministers have promised investment in the transport system, NHS and digital infrastructure in an attempt to stimulate economic growth and win back erstwhile Tory voters. But there are concerns the party has jettisoned its reputation for fiscal rectitude. Continue reading...

RBA reduces cash rate costs by another 0.25% despite rising house prices. This blog is now closed• Full report: Reserve Bank cuts interest rates to historic low to boost weak economy8.21am BSTThanks for joining us, we are going to leave our live coverage here. Just to recap the main points:8.13am BSTA quick update on the Australian share market and the dollar via our friends at Australian Associated Press:

Donald Trump cut taxes for rich Americans, but Berlin should invest in modernisationAs long as Germany’s economy was recovering well from the 2008 global financial crisis, policymakers had a coherent rationale for fiscal austerity. Rejecting other eurozone countries’ constant urging that it undertake stimulus, Germany enshrined the national commitment to budget discipline in the 2009 “debt brake”, which limits the federal structural deficit to 0.35% of GDP, and in the subsequent schwarze null (“black zero”) policy of fully balancing the budget.More German public spending, stimulus advocates argued, would reduce the country’s huge current account surplus and fuel demand that would help other eurozone members, especially in southern Europe. But with Germany experiencing low unemployment and relatively strong growth, policymakers in Berlin were understandably afraid such measures would cause the domestic economy to overheat. Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the day’s political developments, including Brexit and the Conservative party conference

The underlying problem with the flagship Tory policy is the idea that claimants need to change. Could a new government turn this on its head?The shocking failings of universal credit are justly blamed on the government having listened to the wrong people when setting it up. The sensible reforms set out by Labour show that the opposition has been listening to the right ones. Never mind that the package of changes announced by Jeremy Corbyn on Saturday was misleadingly described as a plan to “scrap” universal credit. His party’s proposals to end the five-week wait for initial payments, scrap the benefit cap and two-child limit (and heinous “rape clause”) are sound. So are promises to review the sanctions system, ditch the “digital only” approach and hire 5,000 new advisers to help those who struggle with online applications.Brexit has temporarily obscured much else. But rising levels of poverty in the UK over the past five years, particularly among children and pensioners, rival the current chaos as the deepest stain on the Conservatives’ record. Combined with the rise of insecure, low-paid work, use of food banks and sharp increases in homelessness and rough sleeping, this immiseration must be a priority for any party seeking to replace them. Continue reading...

Sajid Javid’s speech was more hyperbole than hard cash. Many announcements crumble under scrutinyLook at the people here in Manchester at the Tory party conference, stare into their eyes and they look much as they always did – ordinary home counties folk, small business people, plus a few sharp-suited would-be spads. Not noticeably odd, yet these party members are the tiny group who have done for their country.Over the past decade, their Brexit fever has packed the Commons with Europhobes. These respectable law and order-minded patriots chose a dishonest, disreputable, disgrace of a man for prime minister, who will trash their constitution, mislead their monarch, and disrespect their judges to use “any means necessary” to get anything he wants. These ordinary people have turned into wreckers of what they used to hold dearest.More hyperbole than hard cash, many announcements crumble under scrutiny – not 40 new hospitals but refurbishment for sixRelated: Boris Johnson’s unwinnable chess match is nearing its endgame | Anand Menon and Alan Wager Continue reading...

An urgent parliamentary question has examined claims Boris Johnson’s supporters are shorting the pound

The new ECB president must encourage governments to take more pro-growth policiesA highly regarded doctor assumes the care of a chronically impaired patient who is growing weaker and more vulnerable. The patient’s longstanding treatment is not only becoming less effective; now it is also introducing harmful side effects. A better approach exists, but it is not available at the new doctor’s hospital. And in the facilities where it is available, the doctors are too distracted to take on the case.The new doctor is Christine Lagarde, the widely admired former managing director of the International Monetary Fund who will soon succeed Mario Draghi as president of the European Central Bank (ECB). Her challenge will be to avoid a second lost decade of low, insufficiently inclusive eurozone growth. How the patient fares under her care – and whether she can get key eurozone governments to provide the necessary treatment – will define not just her own legacy, but also that of Draghi.Related: ECB has put Europe on a collision course with Donald Trump Continue reading...

Before Thatcher, capital and labour had an even share – Labour merely plans to rebalance a skewed relationshipMargaret Thatcher knew what she wanted to do when she came to power in 1979. She planned to tackle inflation, cut taxes, roll back the state, and give employers the right to manage by reducing the power of trade unions.By the time Thatcher left office in 1990 inflation was still a headache for the government and there had been no real change in the size of the state. But by the mid-1980s, a combination of mass unemployment, the defeat of the miners in their year-long strike and a raft of tougher labour laws had fundamentally changed the balance of power in the workplace. Continue reading...

Precognition is the claimed paranormal ability to predict the future – and is widely considered to be pseudoscience. Why, then, is the US psychic industry worth $2bn a year?Deep in the night of 29 January 2012, Fatih Ozcan had an unusual dream. Then 27, and a waiter in a Turkish restaurant in York, Ozcan dreamed he was holding “loads of cash” while standing in front of his boss. When he arrived at the restaurant for his 5pm shift the next day, he was impatient to speak with his employer. “I was saying: ‘Where is he? I need him.’ I was telling everyone I had to play the lottery with the boss,” Ozcan says. After two hours of pestering, Ozcan’s boss agreed to play. Two days later, the winning EuroMillions numbers were drawn – the pair won £1m.“I’ve had loads of dreams that have become true, but they were little things, like travelling somewhere or having a nice day,” he says. Ozcan was certain this dream was prophetic and that he and his boss would win money together, because a month earlier he prayed for wealth for the first time. “My boss and my colleagues didn’t believe it, but I believed it and that’s why I pressured him for hours.”It’s a bit like seeing a memory of a place you have never been beforeThose who buy into the precog economy don’t like to publicise the fact – police forces prefer to keep quiet about it Continue reading...

Plans for a shorter working week – or even for guaranteed employment – can offer a way out of the casualised rat raceBritain’s economy has long since made the shift from manufacturing things to providing services. Now there is a danger that this service economy is becoming a servant economy.That is the view of the economics professor and biographer of John Maynard Keynes, Lord Skidelsky. He worries our attitude to work has hardened to a point where a cadre of managers and professionals is charged with bossing around an increasingly casualised workforce – one that is forced to contort domestic lives to suit the whims of those in charge and the profit motive.So much more needs to happen. The basic costs of living, which drive workers to scramble for money, need to come down Continue reading...

BoE’s Michael Saunders says Brexit uncertainty could trigger interest rate cut

MPC’s Michael Saunders says businesses think uncertainty will last well into 2020The Bank of England may have to cut interest rates even if a no-deal Brexit is avoided on 31 October, according to a member of the rate-setting monetary policy committee.Michael Saunders said the economy’s persistent weakness meant a delay to Brexit or even a last-minute deal could still leave policymakers with no option but to cut rates. Continue reading...

Each month we look at key indicators to see what effect the Brexit process has had on growth, prosperity and trade

The Bank’s complacency is palpable. Once again it is fiddling while Rome burns

No-deal threat has taken toll on business and consumer confidence, Guardian analysis shows

It is a totally disproportionate charge at a time when savings rates are below 2%Nationwide, my current account provider, states that as a result of the recent Financial Conduct Authority ban on overdraft fees from April 2020, all overdrafts on its current accounts will be charged a single fixed rate of 39.9% EAR/APR (variable) from 11 November 2019. Is this going to be the same for all banks and building societies? If so, it seems the sector is taking advantage of the ruling to introduce iniquitous and totally disproportionate rates in the face of savings rates below 2% and inflation below 3%.

Promise to lift threshold for top rate to £80,000 would boost incomes of highest-earning 8% of populationBoris Johnson’s pledge to raise the threshold for the top rate of income tax from £50,000 to £80,000 would cost £8bn a year and boost the incomes of the highest-earning 8% of the adult population, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.The policy would take 2.5 million people out of paying higher-rate tax, more than reversing the increase over the past three decades, the tax and spending watchdog said. About three-quarters of the tax benefit would go to the highest-income 10% of households. Continue reading...

Nearly 12% of retail sites were unoccupied in first half of 2019, data shows, with chains hit by rising costs and low consumer confidenceBritain’s high streets, shopping centres and retail parks have been left with the highest number of empty outlets in five years as chains have taken a battering from rising costs and low consumer confidence.Nearly 12% of shopping locations were empty in the first half of 2019, up 0.6% compared to the same period last year, according to research from Local Data Company’s (LDC) review of 3,000 retail centres.Related: UK high streets 'in downward spiral' with one in 10 shops emptyRelated: Wolverhampton wonders: the indie shops bucking the high street trend Continue reading...

Kristalina Georgieva spoke of ‘huge responsibility’ of taking charge amid faltering growthBulgaria’s Kristalina Georgieva has said the global economy needs to be ready to cope with a fresh economic downturn after being chosen to head the International Monetary Fund (IMF).The economist said she was taking charge of the Washington-based organisation at a time when growth was slowing, trade tensions growing and with debt at record levels. Continue reading...

Report calls on policymakers to ward off threat by refocusing on jobs, wages and investment

The swelling ranks of people living on the streets are austerity’s public face. It is nothing short of a national disgraceFor the past five years I’ve lived in Los Angeles, where thousands of destitute people call the streets home on any given day. In part due to spiralling rents, LA has an astounding homelessness problem (recent figures revealed a 16% jump in the city to more than 36,000 out of a population of just under 4 million) in a country where “tent cities” have been normal for some time. Meanwhile, doctors are warning of outbreaks of serious infectious diseases, including typhus, among homeless populations. Attacks on homeless people, including in LA, have been a regular feature of America’s crisis. The National Coalition for the Homeless documented 37 lethal attacks in 2016 – a conservative estimate in the absence of reliable reporting of incidents.Related: I work in A&E. I see the brutal reality of the UK's homelessness crisis every dayThe swelling ranks of people living on the streets are austerity's public face Continue reading...

Trump’s rows with China and Iran, Brexit and Argentina’s populism put the world on a knife edgeIn the classic game of chicken, two drivers race directly toward each other, and the first to swerve is the loser. If neither swerves, both will probably die. In the past, such scenarios have been studied to assess the risks posed by great-power rivalries. In the case of the Cuban missile crisis, for example, Soviet and American leaders were confronted with the choice of losing face or risking a catastrophic collision. The question, always, is whether a compromise can be found that spares both parties their lives and their credibility.There are now several geo-economic games of chicken playing out. In each case, failure to compromise would lead to a collision, most likely followed by a global recession and financial crisis. The first and most important contest is between the US and China over trade and technology. The second is the brewing dispute between the US and Iran. In Europe, there is the escalating brinkmanship between Boris Johnson and the EU over Brexit. Finally, there is Argentina, which could end up on a collision course with the International Monetary Fund after the likely victory of the Peronist Alberto Fernández in next month’s presidential election. Continue reading...

German private sector shrinks, contributing to wider manufacturing recessionThe eurozone economy came close to stalling in September after declines in global trade and the threat of a no-deal Brexit triggered the fastest fall in manufacturing output in nearly seven years.Germany was the main driver of the slump after a survey of private sector activity found that the growing threat to international trade from the tit-for-tat US-China trade war had left it in the worst position since 2009. Continue reading...

Manufacturing health check shows exporters in Wales, north-east, Yorkshire and Humberside as vulnerableA health check of Britain’s manufacturers has shown thatsome of the most economically and socially deprived areas in UK are highly exposed to the impact of a no-deal Brexit.Exporters are already suffering losses, especially in Wales, north-east England, Yorkshire and Humberside, which have a significant exposure to trade with the EU, according to a report by manufacturing trade body Make UK and business advisory firm BDO.A hard Brexit would take Britain out of the EU’s single market and customs union and ends its obligations to respect the four freedoms, make big EU budget payments and accept the jurisdiction of the ECJ: what Brexiters mean by “taking back control” of Britain’s borders, laws and money. It would mean a return of trade tariffs, depending on what (if any) FTA was agreed. See our full Brexit phrasebook. Continue reading...

UK has created many part-time or self-employed roles, with new full-time posts going to older workersJobs, jobs, and more jobs. That is Britain’s economic success story of the last 10 years.While public services crumble and the welfare budget continues to be squeezed, when planning for a no-deal Brexit has displaced almost all other activities in Whitehall, ministers can always point to the UK economy as a well-oiled jobs machine.This bountiful situation forms the economic bedrock on which Brexiters base their case for quitting the EU without a deal. Continue reading...

Corbyn is claiming to emulate Harold Wilson in staying neutral over Brexit. But the reality of four decades ago was very differentMy friend Tom McGuinness, who will be known to many as the lead guitarist in Manfred Mann (now the Manfreds), recently spotted a most moving Churchill quote on a D-Day memorial in Normandy. “Men will be proud to say ‘I am a European’. We hope to see a day when men of every country will think as much of being a European as of being from their native country.”Having at one stage early in the second world war proposed a union between Britain and France, the great man cooled on the idea. Later he called for a United States of Europe, but he was not in favour of our joining. Nor was Clement Attlee, Labour prime minister from 1945 to 1951. As for Attlee’s successor as Labour leader, Hugh Gaitskell, he was passionately against it, arguing that it would be an insult to “a thousand years of history”.The referendum was called to resolve issues within the Tory party: instead it brought us the biggest crisis since Suez Continue reading...

Omar Salem said daughter still in hospital for precautionary reasons and thanked A&E staffA man who confronted Boris Johnson over the state of the NHS after years of austerity has said that his daughter is doing better.Omar Salem confronted the prime minister during a visit to a children’s ward at Whipps Cross University hospital in north-east London, where his seven-day-old daughter was being treated. Continue reading...

The scientist and author on his latest book – an epic, multidisciplinary analysis of growth – and why humanity’s endless expansion must stop.Vaclav Smil is a distinguished professor emeritus in the faculty of environment at the University of Manitoba in Winnipeg, Canada. Over more than 40 years, his books on the environment, population, food and energy have steadily grown in influence. He is now seen as one of the world’s foremost thinkers on development history and a master of statistical analysis. Bill Gates says he waits for new Smil books the way some people wait for the next Star Wars movie. The latest is Growth: From Microorganisms to Megacities.You are the nerd’s nerd. There is perhaps no other academic who paints pictures with numbers like you. You dug up the astonishing statistic that China has poured more cement every three years since 2003 than the US managed in the entire 20th century. You calculated that in 2000, the dry mass of all the humans in the world was 125m metric tonnes compared with just 10m tonnes for all wild vertebrates. And now you explore patterns of growth, from the healthy development of forests and brains to the unhealthy increase in obesity and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Before we get into those deeper issues, can I ask if you see yourself as a nerd?

Greg Jericho asks three experts what should be done to save the country from recessionWith the unemployment rate rising from 5.0% at the start of the year to 5.3% in August, and the latest GDP figures showing slow growth and the economy going backwards when accounting for population increase, talk is very quickly turning to what can be (or should) be done.There are two policy arms of the economy – fiscal and monetary. The government controls the fiscal side through spending and taxes; the Reserve Bank controls the monetary side.By choosing to undershoot the inflation target, the RBA has damaged the credibility not just of the target, but monetary policy itselfRelated: The global economy is slowing down. What can governments do about it?Reinstate the Labor party’s 2010 agreement that subordinated the financial stability objective to the inflation target;Have Lowe front a press conference after each CPI release to explain the outcome and underscore the RBA’s ownership of inflation;Make Lowe’s reappointment conditional on inflation averaging between 2-3% over the remainder of his term.It’s not a lack of ammunition that’s holding the RBA back, but an unwillingness to use that ammunitionRelated: A decade after Lehman fell, the global economy is not better. It’s worseImmediately increase the rate of Newstart by at least $75 per week;Bring forward stage two of the tax cuts legislated in July;Legislate to reverse the cuts to penalty rates across all awards;Abolish the cap on APS salaries and provide pay rises of at least 3% to federal employees.The RBA should transition to QE as soon as the level of the cash rate becomes a constraint on its ability to meet its mandateRelated: Wealth inequality is soaring – here are the 10 reasons why it’s happening | Dominic FrisbyRelated: Test of nerve for markets as 10 years of cheap money come to an endThere is still much more the Reserve Bank could do to improve transparency and accountability Continue reading...

As the former PM publishes his memoirs, Patrick Wintour tells Anushka Asthana that Cameron’s pursuit of austerity and decision to call an EU referendum sowed the seeds of his demise. Plus, in opinion, George Monbiot on the global climate strikeDavid Cameron announced his intention to resign as prime minister the morning after Britain voted to leave the EU in a referendum he had decided to hold and then lost. It came after years of austerity, his government’s response to the global financial crisis, in which huge cuts to local services had hit communities hard.The Guardian’s diplomatic editor, Patrick Wintour, tells Anushka Asthana that as political editor at the time, he watched Cameron’s rise to the leadership and then into Downing Street. But his premiership was to be defined by those two big crises: the 2008 economic crash and Brexit. As Cameron publishes his memoirs, the consequences of the decisions he made as prime minister are still playing out in real time. Continue reading...