There may be short-term boost but more cuts and deregulation will not wash in new Tory seatsA soaring pound. Shares rising to record levels on the stock exchange. With the threat of a Labour government removed, it was a familiar story in the City once details of the exit poll were released. The previous time the Conservatives won four elections in a row was 1992, and there were echoes of John Major’s unexpected victory as election night unfolded.For a start, on neither occasion did the Tories have much of an economic record to defend. Britain is not in recession – as it was in the run-up to the 1992 election – but it has come pretty close to it. Growth has stalled in the past three months. Factory output is down. Business investment has fallen. Continue reading...

US president congratulates Boris Johnson on triumph that paves way for US-UK deal

Markets welcome greater certainty over Brexit as sterling surges to $1.34The pound staged its biggest rally in almost three years and shares surged after the Conservative party secured a decisive victory in the general election.Sterling jumped more than 3 cents against the US dollar to $1.35, marking its highest level since May 2018 and its biggest rise since 2017. The gains were later trimmed to 2.5 cents, at $1.3414. The pound also rallied strongly against the euro to €1.20, hitting a high not seen since shortly after the EU referendum. Continue reading...

Sterling jumps two cents against dollar after news Tories were set to win majority of 86

Donald Trump tweets that a trade deal with China is very close, as Christine Lagarde chairs her first ECB monetary policy meeting

Expectation is Washington may scrap plans to increase tariffs on fresh range of Chinese goods

New ECB boss says plan to put €20bn a month into financial system may not push growthNew European Central Bank (ECB) boss Christine Lagarde has kept open the possibility of a fresh stimulus package for the eurozone after admitting that a plan to inject €20bn a month into the financial system was unlikely to push growth and inflation back to target.Speaking after her first policy meeting as ECB president, Lagarde said the central bank would keep interest rates at historic lows and maintain the plan hatched by her predecessor Mario Draghi to re-start quantitive easing to cut the cost of borrowing and boost growth.2019: 1.2%, unchanged2020: 1.1%, up from 1.0%2021: 1.4%, down from 1.5%2022: 1.6% - a new forecast2019: 1.2%, up from 1.1%2020: 1.1%, down from 1.2%2021: 1.4% - unchanged2022: 1.4% - a new forecast Continue reading...

Aramco, the world’s biggest Co2 producer, is now world’s largest listed company after floating today

Shutdown of court will leave UK at mercy of EU in its trading relationship after transition period

Southern Africa’s third largest economy is a textbook example of the increasing debt facing a fast-growing continentZambia’s capital, Lusaka, was having a power cut, so the only light in the restaurant was from Fumba Chama’s mobile phone. The rapper, better known as PilAto, had just finished uploading a new track to Twitter. The bitter-sweet lyrics (in Bemba) of Yama Chinese describe the concerns of many Zambians: “They put on smart suits and fly to China to sell our country. The roads belong to China. The hotels are for the Chinese. The chicken farms are Chinese. Even the brickworks are Chinese.” Continue reading...

The death of an old student of mine, who was homeless, brought home how toxic and unkind this country has becomeThe plight of homeless people, and our reaction to it, are part of the hideous tangle this country has got into. There are so many strands leading into this appalling knot, that if we pull any one of them, the tangle gets worse.So the question of why decent men and women find themselves able to walk past people begging in the street, or huddled up in doorways with only layers of cardboard to keep out the cold, is all mixed up with the flagrant deficiencies of Britain’s democracy, and the craven desire to suck up to the US that brought us the “war on drugs” among other idiocies, and the extraordinary grip that the public schools seem to have on the levers of power.Lies, cowardice and betrayal leak from the very pores of our political leaders; trust limps after them like the poor little dog following the murderer Bill Sikes in Oliver TwistRelated: Election polls UK 2019: Tories maintain lead over Labour as campaign enters final days Continue reading...

Lib Dems could be handed victory by disillusioned Conservatives and tactical Labour votersDaniel Humphrey, a St Albans entrepreneur who set up the country’s first whisky subscription club, might have been part of the former Conservative leader David Cameron’s blueprint for the “big society”. He loves the city he grew up in, plays in several sports teams, worked with local councillors on air pollution initiatives, and organised a whisky festival in St Albans this summeras part of an effort to build community spirit.St Albans, in the London commuter belt, feels like a picture of conservative prosperity to a casual visitor, with its Norman cathedral – sheltering one of Britain’s oldest Christian shrines – elegant period homes and hillside high street of boutiques and smart cafes. Continue reading...

The mood may be one of despair, but this election is critical to the country’s future. The best hope lies with Labour, despite its flawsBritain has not faced a more critical election in decades than the one it faces on Thursday. The country’s future direction, its place in the world and even its territorial integrity are all at stake, primarily because this is a decisive election for Brexit. The choice is stark. The next prime minister is going to be either Boris Johnson, who is focused on “getting Brexit done” whatever the consequences, or Jeremy Corbyn, who with a Labour-led government will try to remodel society with a programme of nationalisation and public spending. Continue reading...

Eurostat figures for 2017 show seven British areas in poorest category, up from three in 2008Britain’s regions have failed to keep pace with the rest of Europe since the 2008 financial crash, according to figures that show the number of areas among the EU’s poorest has more than doubled.In 2008 the number of struggling regions, defined as areas with a GDP per head of the population worth 75% or less of the EU average, stood at three – southern Scotland, west Wales, and Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly. Continue reading...

UK economy failed to grow over the August-October period, reports the Office for National Statistics in its latest growth report

A flatlining economy would normally be big news but the torpor fits neatly into both Labour and tory narrativesIt’s as if somebody has hit the pause button on the economy. After going backwards in August and September, the UK failed to register any increase in activity in October either. The economy has flatlined since the summer and over the course of 2019 will have averaged around 0.2% growth per quarter.Unlike in the spring, there was no artificial boost to activity caused by businesses stocking up on goods ahead of the end of October deadline for leaving the European Union, which meant the October GDP estimate was even worse than the 0.1% the City had been expecting. Any modest build-up in inventories was negated by the bleakest month for the construction sector in more than two years. Even higher energy output in response to the cold snap in October failed to turn growth positive.Related: UK economy flatlines in run-up to general electionRelated: Ted Baker bosses quit as it warns over profits plunge Continue reading...

Chancellor said end to uncertainty would ‘unleash a tidal wave’ of investments

Latest GDP figures for October show falls in manufacturing and construction industriesBritain’s economy stalled in the three months to October following steep falls in the manufacturing and construction industries, according to the last official economic data before voters head to the polls on Thursday.The Office for National Statistics said its monthly assessment found that a broad swathe of the UK’s industrial sectors struggled in the autumn months to leave GDP growth at zero. Continue reading...

Recipients have used the money to apply for better jobs, spend more time with their children, or save for better housing

Countries such as Germany are dead set against borrowing to fund fiscal stimulusThe eurozone is in a bind. Despite successive doses of monetary stimulus by the European Central Bank, inflation remains stubbornly below target. Conventional monetary policy, and even quantitative easing, evidently have limited potency when interest rates are at or near zero.Monetary sceptics worry that lowering rates further will damage Europe’s banks. Additional asset purchases beyond the monthly level of €20bn (£16.8bn) already agreed, they warn, will impair the liquidity of financial markets. By pushing up asset prices, the ECB could expose the financial system to stability risks when those lofty prices return to earth.Related: Public borrowing is cheap but ramping up debt is not without risk | Kenneth RogoffThis impasse has prompted suggestions that the ECB should pursue fiscal policy by stealth Continue reading...

ManpowerGroup says Brexit and global trade woes have dented business confidenceEmployers in Britain have “hit the pause button” on job hiring, according to a survey of the labour market that shows demand for new workers has tumbled to a seven-year low.ManpowerGroup said years of strong jobs growth had ended in 2019 as Brexit uncertainty and a slowdown in global trade took their toll on business confidence.Related: Brexit uncertainty prompts more UK firms to prepare for job cuts Continue reading...

Central bank boss went on to lead response to 2008 financial crisis under President Obama

The former Fed chairman used monetarist shock treatment to cure the US of its serious inflation habitSome would choose the Bundesbank’s Karl Otto Pöhl. The recently retired former European Central Bank president Mario Draghi would have his supporters. But the man they would have to beat for the title of the most influential central banker is Paul Volcker, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, who has died aged 92.Volcker shaped the modern world in three key ways: as chairman of the Fed, he used monetarist shock treatment to cure the US of the serious inflation habit it had developed in the 1970s; he did so by jealously guarding central bank independence; and he created the conditions for a 25-year bull market on Wall Street that only ended with the onset of the 2007 financial crisis.Related: Paul Volcker, US Fed chief under Carter and Reagan, dies at 92 Continue reading...

The shift to a green economy can spur innovation and prosperity if we change the quality of growthIt is clear: we are living beyond our planet’s limits. Unless we change something, the consequences will be dire. Should that something be our focus on economic growth?The climate emergency represents the most salient risk we face and we are already getting a glimpse of the costs. And in “we”, I include Americans. The US, where a major political party is dominated by climate-change deniers, is the highest per capita emitter of greenhouse gases and the only country refusing to adhere to the 2015 Paris climate agreement. So there is a certain irony in the fact that the US has also become one of the countries with the highest levels of property damage associated with extreme weather events such as floods, fires, hurricanes, droughts and bitter cold.Related: Public borrowing is cheap but ramping up debt is not without risk | Kenneth Rogoff Continue reading...

Borrowing costs are low but the fashion for more debt holds real risks, many of which are hiddenWith interest rates on government debt at multi-decade lows, a number of leading economists have argued that almost every advanced economy can allow debt to drift up towards Japanese levels (over 150% of GDP even by the most conservative measure) without any great concern about long-term consequences. Advocates of much higher debt might be right, but they tend to downplay or ignore everything that can go wrong.First and foremost, the new view of debt understates the risks to other claimants on public tax revenues – such as pensioners, who might be thought of as junior debt holders in the 21st-century welfare state. After all, most social-security systems are debt-like in the sense that the government takes money from you now, and promises to pay it back with interest when you are old. And for governments, this “junior” debt is massive relative to the “senior” market debt that sits atop it.Related: Nine reasons why the stock markets are far too optimistic Continue reading...

Tories take nothing for granted because rival plans resonate with voters and polls could be wrongEven now it is impossible to call the election. Sure, the polls look pretty conclusive but the margin between victory and defeat is slender. The last two elections sprung last-minute surprises and when the Tories say they are taking nothing for granted they are telling the truth.The reason for that is simple: the Conservatives may have had a clear message on Brexit that has resonated with leave voters but they also know that much of what Labour has been saying during the election campaign resonates with the voters. Boris Johnson has been battling against an ideological headwind.Related: Older voters are richer than ever, yet still their needs rule Continue reading...

A majority of pensioner households will be open to Tory tax-break promises. Why did Labour not counter this with a reliable social care plan?Patterns make for ugly pictures in modern British elections. Chief among them is the dominance of older voters. Ever since the loud and justified yell of anguish over Gordon Brown’s infamous 75p rise in the state pension, older voters have harried successive governments to improve their incomes and protect their wealth.Brown’s mistake was made in his budget of April 2000 and from that date onwards, prime ministers have tampered with pensioners’ livings standards at their peril.Those aged 55 to 65 are even wealthier. Just over 30% are asset millionaires, while 53% are worth more than £500,000 Continue reading...

It might sound like a recipe for disaster, but research reveals it leads to better decisions all roundWe should put workers on company boards. We should. We need to get the detail right, but having workers’ representatives present when big decisions are taken is not only a good thing in its own right but would lead to better decisions. It would be a big change in the UK, but it’s not outlandish on continental Europe.If that doesn’t persuade you, let’s turn to what this column is all about – evidence. Do we know the impact of requiring that, for example, a third of board seats go to employees? Helpfully, in the 1990s, the Germans removed this requirement for some new firms, but kept it for similar existing ones, providing a great experiment that economists have exploited with research. Continue reading...

President says China has plenty of money amid market jitters about trade talks and Beijing vow to be ‘strong backup’ for Hong Kong policeDonald Trump has called for the World Bank to stop lending money to China, a day after the institution adopted a lending plan to Beijing despite Washington’s objections.The World Bank on Thursday adopted a plan to aid China with $1bn to $1.5bn in low-interest loans annually until 2025. The plan called for lending to “gradually decline” from the previous five-year average of $1.8bn.Related: China envoy warns of 'destructive forces' trying to undermine US ties Continue reading...

Jeremy Corbyn’s proposals were once widely accepted in pre-Thatcher Britain, says Austen Lynch, while John Forsyth writes of the economic benefit of people having more money, though Chris Pratt questions the efficacy of free school mealsGrowing up in Sweden, Susanna Kierkegaard benefited from free school lunches, had access to university without tuition fees and had free dental checkups – so, as she says, “I already know some of Jeremy Corbyn’s proposed policies can work” (Why a Swede is canvassing for Corbyn’s party, Journal, 2 December).Growing up in pre-Thatcher Britain, we once had all this and more – graduate and postgraduate grants, free dental and medical care, nationalised rail, mail and utilities – all in a country that provided decent council housing, youth centres, care homes and welfare. Continue reading...

America’s non-farm payroll has surged by the most in 10 months, in a boost for the economy....and Donald Trump

US added 266,000 new jobs, boosted by the return to work of 48,000 auto workers following a 40-day strikeThe US added 266,000 new jobs in November boosted by the return to work of striking auto workers.Related: Despite rapid growth in wages, Trump should be concerned | Larry Elliott Continue reading...

Predictions of victory for Conservatives raise City hopes of end to Brexit uncertainty

Despite a growing economy, many truckers struggle with low shipment numbers, and on top of that a national compliance deadline is loomingIt’s been a tough year for the trucking business. And the outlook for next year isn’t looking any rosier.Despite a growing economy, many truckers continued to struggle with lower than desired shipping rates and shipment levels. Tariffs took their toll, manufacturing continued to contract and the closely watched Cass Freight Index – which measures North American freight volumes and expenditures – logged yet another decline, its eleventh in a row, this October. Not only that but trucking companies in California are now fighting a new law that will require them to reclassify how they treat their independent drivers. Continue reading...

After nine years of the horrors of austerity, who are these people who can’t see that only one party offers hope?I am not, and never have been, one of the cool kids. I was a nerd into Christian rock at school. I love a good Excel spreadsheet. And in 2019 I am resolutely, unfashionably, not politically homeless.Everyone is, these days. Can’t throw a brick without hitting someone saying: “Ugh, there’s no choice at all, it’s like picking between being two different ways of being murdered.” This election, depending on which paper you read, is either a desperate fight to save the Queen from being murdered by John McDonnell at 9am on 13 December, or a deeply dull and unpleasant affair which Your Humble Correspondent finds themselves unfortunately caught up in through no fault of their own, like someone sent out to cover an arts festival in Azerbaijan who ends up accidentally reporting on a scandal involving a dodgy sewage works.Related: To hold back the Tory wave, progressives will have to join forces | Polly Toynbee Continue reading...

Pound hits highest level since May as opinion polls give Tories 11% lead over LabourThe pound raced to a seven-month high against the dollar on Wednesday as City traders bet that Boris Johnson was on course for victory in the general election.Sterling jumped above $1.30 to hit 1.311, its highest level since May, while the euro rate moved above €1.18 from close to parity in the summer when the Conservative leadership contest triggered a fresh round of Brexit uncertainty. Continue reading...

Guardian readers respond to Dave Merritt’s tribute to his son Jack, who, along with Saskia Jones, died on Friday at London BridgeI am in awe of the courage that it must have taken for Jack Merritt’s father to write his tribute to his brave, intelligent, beautiful son (Jack would be livid his death has been used to further an agenda of hate, 3 December). I agree with every word and suspect that the same themes could be applied to Saskia.We must all do everything we can to stop our country adopting a penal system more akin to that in many American states. Instead of an approach towards offenders that is hateful, vengeful and vicious, realistic resources should be used to create one that is focused on rehabilitation. Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as UK asset manager surprisingly freezes a major property investment fund

Macron’s proposed retirement reforms are his latest attempt to erode the safety net. Tomorrow the people are fighting backIt’s shaping up to be one of France’s biggest strikes in recent memory. Responding to calls from unions to protest against the government’s proposed retirement reforms, an impressive swath of the workforce plans to walk off the job tomorrow – everyone from railway workers and truckers to judges, nurses, teachers and students.While it has yet to introduce legislation, Emmanuel Macron’s government has floated a proposal that would mark the deepest overhaul of France’s pension system since its creation in the aftermath of the second world war. This would effectively hike the earliest age at which one can collect so-called full retirement benefits from 62 to 64, overhaul the formula for calculating benefits and merge the country’s 42 existing pension schemes into a single regime – all in all, resulting in likely benefit cuts for millions. Authorities have defended their ambitions with the language of French republicanism, vowing to forge a “universal system” in which everyone is treated equally. But what they neglect to mention is that the new standard would be worse than today’s.Related: How Macron discovered the soft power of the working class | Christophe Guilluy Continue reading...

When we lost our baby boy, I saw the NHS at its best. The Conservatives can’t be trusted with it

Asian markets plunge after Trump comments about trade deal delay made worse by possible Xinjiang sanctionsGlobal financial markets have gone into a tailspin amid mounting concern that the US and China are not going to conclude an interim trade agreement before a new set of American tariffs hit Chinese goods on 15 December.Asian markets saw heavy selling on Wednesday after Donald Trump said a trade deal could wait until next year’s presidential election, scotching widely held expectations that he was ready to give the go ahead for an agreement.Related: Trump says China-US trade deal could wait until after 2020 electionThe markets feel like trade talks are on a shot-clock now: December 15 being when the buzzer blows Continue reading...

Shares tumble after president claims tariffs are hurting rival more than AmericaDonald Trump has warned that a trade deal with China could be more than a year away in comments that sent shares in Britain’s top 100 companies and US stock markets tumbling.Speaking at the Nato summit in London, the US president said the US was doing “very well” from the trade war and he was in no hurry to sign an agreement before he runs for re-election next November. Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as US proposes steep new tariffs on French cheese, wine, handbags and porcelain

Key issue is how well assets such as railways and energy would run under public ownership, not the costThe Institute for Fiscal Studies is asking the right question about Labour’s nationalisation plans. The key issue is how well the assets would be run under public ownership. What is the party hoping to achieve that could not be done via smarter regulation?This part of the debate has been obscured by endless quarrels over how much it would cost to nationalise rail, mail, water, energy and BT Openreach. On the cost score, the IFS report merely offered a factual two-part answer, one of which was necessarily imprecise.Related: IFS warns Labour renationalisation may delay low-carbon economy Continue reading...

Mr Johnson once thought ‘destitution on a Victorian scale’ might be a good thing. With Tory policies he may yet deliver such a dystopiaDid Boris Johnson watch Channel 4’s documentary Growing Up Poor? He should have. The film is a seminal moment in television which has made people talk about the crisis of destitution that is hiding in plain sight in the UK, and how dreadful it is. In the programme, childhood dreams of being an actor or a solicitor jarred with tales of chronic poverty. There were bleak scenes of Dickensian hardship, as families living in squalor or with hungry children at a food bank explained how these situations had been precipitated by everyday catastrophes of bereavement, domestic violence and mental breakdown. The damaging trade-offs being made – of whether to eat or heat – are a shameful indictment of a country as wealthy as ours.The prime minister does not care to be apprised of such things. Nor is he willing to accept the fact that since 2010-11, on the three main measures, UK child poverty has risen. Nor that the spread of penury has been driven by Conservative cuts and freezes to tax credits and benefits. The government’s own Social Metrics Commission found that more than 4 million people in the UK are trapped in deep poverty, effectively destitute. This is a new phenomenon. Before 2012 the academic literature on the subject found little mention of destitution apart from among asylum seekers. Once the poor might have expected the welfare safety net to help them avoid deprivation. They now have no such guarantee. Austerity, low incomes and precarious jobs have made the poor newly vulnerable to unexpected financial shocks and the slide into desperate hardship. Continue reading...

John McDonnell rejects claim, saying thinktank is taking ‘nakedly ideological stance’Labour’s plan to renationalise large chunks of the economy risks years of disruption that could delay Britain’s transition to a low-carbon economy, a thinktank has said.The Institute for Fiscal Studies warned that taking water, energy companies, the Royal Mail and railways under state control would be costly, complex and risky and said Labour might do better to tighten regulation instead. Continue reading...

Bank president indicates she will move bank beyond traditional remit of controlling inflationChristine Lagarde has said the European Central Bank should do more to help tackle the climate emergency, as she came under pressure from MEPs to step up action against global heating.In a strong hint that as president she would move the ECB beyond its traditional remit of controlling inflation, Lagarde said the bank would incorporate the climate threat into both its economic forecasts and in its capacity as watchdog of the financial system. Continue reading...

Trump targets $2.4bn in French imports amid plans to restore tariffs on Brazil and ArgentinaThe Trump administration is proposing tariffs on up to $2.4bn-worth of French imports, including Roquefort cheese, lipstick, handbags and sparkling wine, in retaliation for France’s tax on US tech companies including Google, Amazon and Facebook.The Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) said an investigation had found France’s new digital services tax discriminated against US companies. It added that the tariffs could reach 100%.Related: Trump to restore steel tariffs on Brazil and Argentina Continue reading...

Party proposes measures across welfare, public services, transport, housing and jobsLabour has promised to end what it calls the “hostile environment” for disabled people in the social security system as part of a raft of plans to tackle discrimination.The party’s disability manifesto, published on Tuesday morning, proposes a range of measures across welfare, public services, transport, housing and jobs to enable disabled people to live independently, be treated with dignity and respect, and participate fully in society.Related: Disabled workers paid 12% less, 'damning' UK official figures show Continue reading...