Economics | The Guardian

Automation is a red herring. The wider environment of slowing growth explains low labor demand largely by itselfAn army of robots now scrub floors, grow microgreens and flip burgers. Due to advances in artificial intelligence, computers will supposedly take over much more of the service sector in the coming decade, including jobs in law, finance and medicine that require years of education and training.Related: Republicans have turned the impeachment trial into a dangerous sham | Andrew GawthorpeCountries with high levels of robotization are not necessarily the ones that have lost the most industrial jobsRelated: The Jeff Bezos hacking allegations destroy the myth of a new Saudi Arabia | David WearingAaron Benanav is a researcher in the social sciences at the University of Chicago. He is writing a book about the global history of unemployment. This is an abridged version of his New Left Review article on automation Continue reading...

David Malpass spurning event hits efforts to tackle issues of poverty and climate crisis

JLR’s night shift cuts come amid £2.5bn cost saving drive to invest in electric vehiclesJaguar Land Rover, Britain’s largest carmaker, has revealed that as many as 500 jobs are at risk as it ends the night shift at its Halewood factory in the latest blow to workers in the embattled UK auto industry.About 10% of the jobs at the factory could be affected, JLR said on Wednesday. The plant near Liverpool employs just under 4,000 people, as well as about 500 agency workers. Across the UK, JLR employs about 33,000 workers. Continue reading...

BoE one of central banks weighing potential benefits amid decline of cash and emergence of Facebook’s libraThe Bank of England will examine how Britain could adopt a bitcoin-style digital currency as part of a global group of central banks that have joined together to examine the possible pitfalls of relying on electronic money.Bank officials will meet with the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank (ECB), the Sveriges Riksbank, the Bank of Canada, the Swiss National Bank and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) to pool research and experiences of the potential for a central bank digital currency (CBDC). Continue reading...

This tokenistic plan undermines the government’s claim that it wants to tackle regional inequalityA new House of Lords will not be built in York for a simple reason: such an endeavour is replete with political risk for the governing party while unlikely to sway many votes at the next election. Building a fully functioning modern legislature would cost hundreds of millions while paying the expenses of peers between London and York would invite the same ridicule as the European parliament’s daft journeys between Brussels and Strasbourg. Poring over the details of construction costs would be a boon for tabloid journalists but a millstone for the Tories at the next election. And even if it were to happen, it would be a mere token. So what would a real plan to address regional inequality entail?The scale of the challenge cannot be overstated. The gap between the richest and poorest regions in the UK in 2020 is wider than that between east and west Germany at the time of the fall of the Berlin wall. London is the wealthiest region in northern Europe, while six of the 10 poorest regions are found elsewhere in the UK. Productivity (what each worker produces in an hour) in London and the south-east is 30% higher than every other region of England as well as Wales and Northern Ireland. Scotland does somewhat better – but productivity there is still 20% lower. There are no quick fixes.Related: What has the ‘northern powerhouse’ actually done for the people of the north? | Chi Onwurah Continue reading...

Comment came as Greta Thunberg demanded immediate action in Davos

Number in employment hits joint record high of 32.9 million in three months to NovemberBritain’s jobs market staged a stronger than expected recovery in the three months to November, according to official figures, easing pressure on Bank of England policymakers to cut interest rates at their meeting next week.The number of people in employment jumped by 208,000 over the period to a joint record high of 32.9 million, nearly double the 110,000 increase forecast by economists. Continue reading...

Study also shows global unemployment due to rise for the first time in a decadeNearly half a billion people around the world are struggling to find adequate paid work, trapping individuals in poverty and fuelling heightened levels of inequality, according to a UN report.In a study published as world leaders fly into the Swiss ski resort of Davos to voice concerns over inequality and the climate crisis, the UN’s International Labour Organization (ILO) said more than 473 million people around the world lacked the employment opportunities to meet their needs. Continue reading...

Lender estimates 3.3% growth in 2020, down from a previous forecast of 3.4%The International Monetary Fund has warned that the world economy is increasingly vulnerable to the impact of the climate emergency as the Washington-based organisation downgraded its forecasts for 2020 and 2021.Urging governments to make greater strides to reduce carbon emissions and build green infrastructure, the IMF said one of the main risks to its forecasts came from the growing costs of the climate crisis and the harm caused by protectionist trade policies. Continue reading...

PwC poll shows Britain’s stability makes it increasingly attractive place to invest

Annual CEO survey found 65% of bosses were worried about climate, even before the bushfire crisis peakedAustralian company bosses are becoming increasingly concerned about the climate crisis and are expecting tough economic times in the year ahead, a new survey shows.Global accounting firm PwC’s annual survey of CEOs shows bosses are preparing to cut jobs and don’t think Australian business and government is doing enough to deal with global heating – a dismal picture that is set to get worse once the effects of the past month’s deadly bushfires take hold.Related: David Attenborough calls Australia's bushfires 'the moment of crisis' to address climate changeRelated: Australia's bushfires could affect cost and availability of fresh local produce Continue reading...

Political measures and technology have a part to play, but a carbon tax or similar would be most effectiveAlthough many supporters of Donald Trump seemingly believe that global warming is a hoax, almost everyone else agrees that the climate emergency should be at the top of the list of important policy issues. Identifying the problem, however, is not much use unless we also identify the appropriate tools to address it.In my own field of specialisation, central bankers have caught climate-change fever. Under the leadership of Christine Lagarde, for example, both the International Monetary Fund and now the European Central Bank have declared the planet’s climate health to be “mission critical.” Continue reading...

On all economic measures, from jobs to health to GDP to disposable income, the president has failed AmericaAs the world’s business elites trek to Davos for their annual gathering, people should be asking a simple question: have they overcome their infatuation with the US president?Two years ago, a few rare corporate leaders were concerned about climate change, or upset at Donald Trump’s misogyny and bigotry. Most, however, were celebrating the president’s tax cuts for billionaires and corporations and looking forward to his efforts to deregulate the economy. That would allow businesses to pollute the air more, get more Americans hooked on opioids, entice more children to eat their diabetes-inducing foods and engage in the sort of financial shenanigans that brought on the 2008 crisis.Related: Is Donald Trump's Iran strategy working? Continue reading...

Only US and Italy have weaker performance than UK among G7 industrialised nationsThe organisation that runs the annual Davos event attended by some of the world’s richest people has said greater social mobility would help narrow the gap between rich and poor and boost global growth by almost 5% in the next decade.A report from the World Economic Forum found that only a handful of 82 countries surveyed had put in place policies that would foster social mobility but that a concerted effort to increase opportunities for people to achieve their full potential would have a marked impact on economic performance.Related: Warm words in the alps … Davos prepares for 50th economics shindig Continue reading...

Readers respond to our report into the increased use of booths to discipline schoolchildrenThere would be an argument in favour of the use of isolation rooms or cubicles for troublesome young people in school if there was any evidence that they worked (Alarm as more schools use ‘degrading’ isolation booths, 18 January). In fact there appears to be no such evidence. The evidence that we do have is that teachers who use praised-based strategies to improve pupils’ behaviour in class experience far fewer disruptive incidents and hence less need to be punitive. Yes, it is important and indeed necessary for any disruptive pupil to face a consequence as a result of their behaviour, but evidence suggests that effective punishments tend to be mild and irksome in nature, such as being kept back at the end of lessons, short detentions at end of the day and having their parents informed of their misbehaviour.If strategies used by teachers and schools were evidence-based we would have much happier schools, teachers, pupils and parents. Isolation units do not work.

Subject was not an issue at forum’s first meeting in 1971 but should now be at forefront for US presidentRichard Nixon was in the White House, Mao Zedong was running China and Ted Heath was the prime minister of the UK when hand-picked members of the global business, academic and policymaking elite were first invited to a get-together in the Swiss resort of Davos in 1971.This year marks the 50th Davos but there is not exactly a party mood. The World Economic Forum, the body that organises the annual talkfest in the snow, is “committed to improving the state of the world” but in key respects things look worse today than they did at the start of the 70s.Related: Warm words in the alps … Davos prepares for 50th economics shindig Continue reading...

While the Senate mulls his fate, the president plans to speak to world economic leaders every bit as impeachable as himAs the Senate debates Donald Trump’s future, chief executives, financiers and politicians will descend on Davos in the Swiss Alps for their annual self-congratulatory defense of global capitalism.Related: A Very Stable Genius review: dysfunction and disaster at the court of King DonaldPopular anger is boiling over against elites seen as irredeemably greedy, corrupt and indifferentRelated: The Age of Illusions review: anti-anti-Trump but for … what, exactly?Robert Reich, a former US secretary of labor, is professor of public policy at the University of California at Berkeley and the author of Saving Capitalism: For the Many, Not the Few and The Common Good. His next book, The System: Who Rigged It, How We Fix It, will be out in March. He is a columnist for Guardian US Continue reading...

Brexit was the latest blow to the sector. Its future must not be left to the market – investment in electric vehicles is neededBritain’s economy is on course to grow by less than 1% in 2019. Last week’s retail sales figures for December, which showed the longest period of zero growth for more than 20 years, are likely to drag down GDP growth in the last quarter, limiting the annual growth rate to 0.8% or 0.9% at best.In 2020, the economy’s expansion may not be much better given all the uncertainty surrounding the government’s negotiating stance with the EU following Brexit. Few people inside Whitehall or even the cabinet know which industries will be sacrificed to achieve a quick and dirty trade deal. And while that situation persists business investment will remain low and the manufacturing sector will stumble along, possibly in recession as it is now.Brexit and the threat of tariffs on cars and car parts put a layer of uncertainty on an already difficult situation Continue reading...

Labour MP Zarah Sultana’s comments linking the two provoked wrath. But why were they even controversial?In her maiden speech to the House of Commons, the new Labour MP for Coventry South, Zarah Sultana, said, “In 10 years’ time, at the start of the next decade, I want to look teenagers in the eye and say with pride: my generation faced 40 years of Thatcherism, and we ended it.”Related: Stuart Hall: New Labour has picked up where Thatcherism left offThe energised, aspirational, entrepreneurial economy was Thatcher’s gift to Blair Continue reading...

Kristalina Georgieva compares today with “roaring 1920s” and criticises UK wealth gapThe head of the International Monetary Fund has warned that the global economy risks a return of the Great Depression, driven by inequality and financial sector instability.Speaking at the Peterson Institute of International Economics in Washington, Kristalina Georgieva said new IMF research, which compares the current economy to the “roaring 1920s” that culminated in the great market crash of 1929, revealed that a similar trend was already under way.Related: Trump vaunts his China trade pact – but some say it’s too little, too late Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as UK retail spending falls again

Investors shrug off slowdown as new data fuels optimism China can ride out US trade warChina’s economy stumbled last year to its lowest growth rate in almost 30 years after the tit-for-tat trade war with the US took its toll on manufacturing output and consumer spending.The world’s second-largest economic power grew by 6.1% in 2019, down from 6.8% in 2018, and the lowest rate in 29 years.The roots of the dispute come from US president Donald Trump’s “America first” project to protect the US’ position as the world’s leading economy, while encouraging businesses to hire more workers in the US and to manufacture their products there. Continue reading...

Retail sales fail to rise for record fifth month in a row in December, says ONSHigh street sales in Britain slumped in December as consumers reined in their spending over the key Christmas shopping period, adding to the gloom facing embattled retailers across the country and increasing the likelihood of an interest rate cut later this month.The Office for National Statistics said retail sales failed to rise for a record fifth month in a row in December as household spending in high street shops and online plunged by 0.6% from the previous month.Related: Philip Green's Arcadia closes more stores after tough ChristmasWhat’s the problem? Continue reading...

Aggressive ‘non-cooperation’ can be effective but only if used carefullyThe US president Donald Trump’s authorisation of the targeted killing of the Iranian al-Quds force commander, Qassem Suleimani, is, in many ways, similar to his administration’s approach to trade. In both cases, the administration has demonstrated a willingness to surprise by unilaterally leveraging US strength in the pursuit of long-term outcomes, despite considerable short-term risks and without wide consultations. As Ronald Reagan showed in the 1980s with his strategy vis-a-vis the Soviet Union, such aggressive unilateralism can work. But it is best used selectively and sparingly.In seeking to address long-term US (and European) grievances against certain Chinese trade practices, the Trump administration decided to abandon the traditional approach of seeking redress through existing multilateral institutions such as the World Trade Organization. Instead, it opted for what game theorists call a non-cooperative approach, imposing harsh tariffs on Chinese imports and then threatening even more should China retaliate. By weaponising what is traditionally an economic-policy tool, the US has been able to pursue national-security objectives alongside economic and financial goals.Pressing an adversary into a corner in the hope that it will make a mistake is an old strategyRelated: US-Iran conflict could lead to slower global growth or even recession | Nouriel Roubini Continue reading...

Australian farmers could be hit, but trade minister says phase one ‘truce’ is good for global confidenceChina’s commitment to buy $200bn of US goods over two years could come at the expense of Australian farmers and energy providers, but the “truce” in the countries’ trade war will be a confidence boost for global markets, trade minister Simon Birmingham has said.“This is welcome news. Australia has long called for a reduction, a cessation of the trade war between the United States and China – it was hurting global economic growth, and so we welcome the fact that this agreement has been signed,” he told radio station 2GB.Related: US-China tensions could slow global economy, UN warnsRelated: Limp US-China trade deal keeps investors happy – at least for now | Nils Pratley Continue reading...

After much fanfare, markets took the ho-hum view that any kind of agreement is better than nothingNobody doubts the ability of the great US-China trade war to generate headlines, move markets and dominate investors’ mood. After an enormous fanfare, though, the “phase one” trade deal landed limply. There wasn’t much there.There was, it should be said, a showy number: a requirement on China to boost its purchases of US goods and agricultural products by $200bn (£153bn) compared with 2017 levels. But it’s over two years, not one, and most analysts took the view that they’ll believe it when they see it. Continue reading...

Trump is expected to sign the United States-Mexico-Canada pact (USMCA) next weekOne day after signing a new trade deal with China, Donald Trump received a second victory for his trade agenda as the Senate passed a new North American pact.As as lawmakers prepared to read aloud charges against Trump in his impeachment trial the Senate voted 89 to 10 pass the revised United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Trump is expected to sign the deal next week. Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as experts express concerns over Donald Trump’s Phase One trade deal with China

Accident and emergency makes the headlines. Meanwhile, under-reported services are collapsing through lack of fundingWill the secretary of state for health and social care get away with such barefaced shamelessness in his apparent plans to abolish waiting-time targets for A&E? Matt Hancock’s faintly plausible excuse is that the four-hour target is a perverse incentive to treat an ingrown toenail, at three hours and 50 minutes, ahead of heart attacks and road accident victims. But most A&Es triage efficiently, diverting minor ailments to GPs on site; their real crisis is 12-hour trolley waits for very ill people queuing for reduced numbers of hospital beds.A&Es are the thermometers of the NHS, and they reached boiling point long ago, embarrassing a government that has starved the service of funds as never before in its history. Hancock and the prime minister now regularly speak of the NHS receiving its “biggest cash boost” in history, a factoid that describes half a glass of water offered in a drought.There was a target to give every patient access within 48 hours … But that target ‘has been quietly dropped'Related: Prostate cancer deaths in UK hit record high of over 12,000 in 2017 Continue reading...

State media plays down agreement, in contrast to Donald Trump’s assertion it is the ‘biggest deal anyone has ever seen’Reaction in China to the US trade deal has been muted, with state media playing down news of the agreement signed in Washington and adopting a conciliatory tone.On Wednesday, Donald Trump and the Chinese vice-premier, Liu He, signed an initial pact that hits pause on more than two years of escalating trade tensions. China pledged to buy more US products while the US called off additional tariffs on Chinese goods, among other measures agreed between the two sides.Related: Trump signs China trade pact and boasts of 'the biggest deal ever seen' Continue reading...

US and China have signed a preliminary trade agreement that will see more American farm products and machinery sold to Chinese customers

President signs first phase of new agreement with China, hours after Democrats named team that will prosecute him in SenateDonald Trump has signed the first phase of a new trade agreement with China after two years of tension between the two superpowers that have rattled economies around the world.Related: Trump vaunts his China trade pact – but some say it’s too little, too late Continue reading...

CPI at 1.3% in December, putting pressure on Bank of England to cut interest ratesUK inflation has dropped to its lowest level for more than three years, fuelled by struggling retailers offering a wider range of discounts in December.Raising pressure on the Bank of England to cut interest rates, the annual rate on the consumer price index (CPI) dipped to 1.3% in December from 1.5% in November, the weakest since November 2016, according to the Office for National Statistics.Related: MPC may need more data before it considers cutting interest rates Continue reading...

Resolution Foundation says increasing reliance on credit cards and overdrafts is storing up problemsLow-income households have recorded a sharp rise in the use of potentially expensive consumer debt over the past decade and are now vulnerable to unexpected hard times, a thinktank has said.While the Resolution Foundation dismissed fears of a debt crisis as overblown, it said the increasing use of credit cards, store cards and overdrafts by those struggling to make ends meet should concern policymakers. Continue reading...

The French president must learn the lessons of the concession he has made on pension reform – or he risks the far right exploiting this battle at the next electionIn the end, Emmanuel Macron seems prepared to compromise. After six weeks of strikes involving rail employees, teachers, nurses, ballet dancers, lawyers, concierges, pilots and drivers on the Paris Métro, the French government has announced a major concession to unions: the withdrawal of a proposal to raise the country’s full benefits retirement age from 62 to 64. Mr Macron described the concession as a “constructive compromise”, following the longest mass walkout by transport workers since 1968.The strike is not over yet. But the French president, above all, does not want a galling defeat for the Élysée. Projecting an air of steely resolution, Mr Macron has made it his mission to challenge some of the cherished securities of France’s postwar economic settlement. His labour market reforms have made it easier to hire and fire workers. Benefits to the jobless have been cut, as unemployment has come down. More low-wage jobs have been created. Continue reading...

Stock markets are deluded to think the latest threat to the global economy has been removedFollowing the US assassination of Iranian al-Quds commander Qassem Suleimani and Iran’s initial retaliation against two Iraqi bases housing US troops, financial markets moved into risk-off mode: oil prices spiked by 10%, US and global equities dropped by a few percentage points and safe-haven bond yields fell. In short order, though, despite the continuing risks of a US-Iran conflict and the implications that it would have for markets, the view that both sides would eschew further escalation calmed investors and reversed these price movements, with equities even approaching new highs.That turnabout reflects two assumptions. First, markets are banking on the fact that neither Iran nor the US wants a full-scale war, which would threaten both the Iranian regime and Donald Trump’s re-election prospects. Second, investors seem to believe that the economic impact of a conflict would be modest. After all, oil’s importance as an input in production and consumption has fallen sharply since past oil-shock episodes, such as the 1973 Yom Kippur war, Iran’s 1979 Islamic revolution and Iraq’s 1990 invasion of Kuwait. Moreover, the US itself is now a major energy producer, inflation expectations are much lower than in past decades, and there is little risk of central banks raising interest rates following an oil-price shock.Related: Crisis for Iran may present an opportunity for Washington Continue reading...

Those who set the central bank’s monetary policy should reveal how they cast their ballotsThe European Central Bank is undergoing a changing of the guard: a new president, a new chief economist, and two new executive board members. And the ECB’s new leadership is facing a contentious year in 2020.For starters, former ECB president Mario Draghi’s last policy meeting was marked by disputes over quantitative easing and the president’s role in decision-making, underscoring disagreement within the governing council (comprising the executive board and national central bank governors) about monetary strategy. Should the ECB retain its point target for inflation but make that target symmetrical, in contrast to the present “below but close to 2%”? Or should it abandon all hope of coming close to 2% and settle for 1.5%? Continue reading...

Administration drops charges as the two superpowers move closer to a trade dealThe Trump administration has withdrawn its designation of China as currency manipulator, as the two economic superpowers move closer to a trade deal.The decision to drop the designation comes ahead of the announcement of a trade deal between the two sides, expected on Wednesday. The trade dispute has rocked US manufacturing and caused an economic slowdown in China. Continue reading...

Bank of England panel meets this month after weak economic figures for November

Pressure on Bank of England for interest rate cut increases after figures for November

New Economics Foundation calls for £50bn to reboot economy on greener footingThe government fightback against the next recession should include pumping as much as £50bn into green projects, in a move that would help reboot the economy and tackle the climate emergency, according to a left-leaning thinktank.Against a backdrop of concern among economists that Britain is ill-equipped to combat another downturn on the scale of the 2008 financial crisis, the New Economics Foundation thinktank said a green plan to beat a future slump was required. Continue reading...

Firms says a buyer must be found within days, with 1,000 jobs at riskThe department store chain Beales is on the brink of collapse and must find a buyer within days, with about 1,000 jobs at risk if the historic retailer does not complete a rescue deal.Beales, which began trading in Bournemouth in 1881, has filed notice of its intention to appoint administrators, as the retailer considers its options while seeking to complete a sale process begun last month. Continue reading...

Balance tilts towards cutting 0.75% rate as latest member of Bank of England’s panel speaksMomentum towards an interest cut is growing after a third member of the Bank of England’s rate-setting committee signalled that the British economy could require support from lower borrowing costs within months.Gertjan Vlieghe, an independent member of Threadneedle Street’s nine-member monetary policy committee (MPC), said on Sunday he would vote for a cut in rates later this month from 0.75% – if key barometers of economic strength fail to reveal a bounce straight after the December general election.Related: Bank of England governor hints at interest rate cut Continue reading...

The Tories need to satisfy their new northern voters fast. Not easy given the economic problems are structuralIn politics, the year just gone will be remembered for a number of reasons. It recorded a change of prime minister, a spell when the executive lost control of the parliamentary agenda, and a general election. One thing it won’t be remembered for is its budget: 2019 was the first year since the Napoleonic wars that there was no big day out for the chancellor of the exchequer.By the time Sajid Javid stands up in the House of Commons on 11 March it will have been more than 15 months since Philip Hammond delivered the last budget. For those who can’t remember – most people, in all likelihood – Hammond’s main announcement was extra money for the NHS.Related: The Tories need to turn on the spending taps in the north now | Larry Elliott Continue reading...

Brexit is a Tory invention and pro-Europeans must still fight our EU exileIn less than three weeks, Britain leaves the EU. Those vast marches, the crowded public meetings, the indefatigable Remain campaigners, the great speeches, the parliamentary wheeler-dealing and principled resignations were all for nothing. The “get Brexit done” Tories, exploiting the least electable Labour leader ever, won the election and were handed an 80-seat majority. The die is cast.For the political class, the issue has become toxic. Boris Johnson wants Brexit expunged from the lexicon so that the new normal is for Britain to be wholly outside the EU. Labour, flattened by its epic defeat, is agreed that to be pro-EU is political death. Remain Britain – half the population – has no champion.Britain is too exposed, too economically and militarily weak and too European to have an independent foreign policyRelated: Brexit weekly briefing: UK counts down to 31 January departure Continue reading...

If the PM were the one nation Tory he claims to be, he would – and should – choose to keep Britain aligned with the EUI have occasionally referred over the years to a parody of an editorial which a group of us at the Financial Times once concocted on a slow news day. It began something like this: “While in many ways we were against the Marxist manifesto on which the opposition campaigned, now that they have been elected the important thing is to make their programme work.”Well, there has been no danger of any newspaper having to welcome a Corbyn government in such tones. However, an up-to-date version of that editorial might read as follows: “While we thought, and still think, that the new government’s plan to leave the European Union is bordering on the insane, the important thing now is to make it work.”Let us hope the optimists are right, and that Johnson has moved on from wanting to prorogue parliament in order to crash out Continue reading...

While a cessation in hostilities is welcome, businesses have a lot of ground to make up, and few expect any further progressThe trade war with China is over; long live the trade war. That is the message from Donald Trump as the US president promotes a pact with Beijing that has both settled the frayed nerves of traders across the world’s financial markets and put those same traders on notice that the battle will continue for years to come.This week the White House is expected to publish details of a first- phase deal that cuts the import tariffs from 15% to 7.5% on more than $100bn of Chinese imports as soon as the agreement is implemented. The deal is expected to be signed on Wednesday, although Trump said on Friday it might be “shortly thereafter”.There’s been a lot of disruption and pain, and there hasn’t been a lot of progress on the most important issues Continue reading...

The president’s agreement with China is based on a misunderstanding of the corporate mindset. It’s time to invest in ourselvesTrump’s “phase one” agreement with China, to be signed on Wednesday, is intended partly to slow China’s move into new technologies like electric cars by protecting the intellectual property of American corporations.Which lends a certain irony to Tesla’s first Model 3 electric sedans now coming off assembly lines at the firm’s new multibillion-dollar plant in Shanghai.Related: Tesla delivers first China-made cars from $5bn Shanghai factoryRobert Reich is a Guardian US columnist. His next book, The System: Who Rigged It, How We Fix It, will be out in March Continue reading...

Unemployment rate holds at 3.5% for the second straight month but figures suggest a lingering weakness in manufacturingUS employers added 145,000 jobs in December, capping a record 10 years of jobs growth as the unemployment rate held at 3.5% for the second straight month, prolonging a half-century low.Hiring slipped after robust gains of 256,000 in November that were caused in part by the one-off end of a strike at General Motors.Related: Central banks are now the markets' best friends | Mohamed El-Erian Continue reading...

US non-farm payrolls have come in lower than expected at 145k for December, while annual wage growth missed forecasts at 2.9%3.06pm GMT2.53pm GMTAnd in lighter news, the co-founder of digital bank Monzo has quit to pursue an alternative career: farming alpacas in Northumberland.For the next few weeks and months I’m going to enjoy some time with Debbie at our wonderful farm in Northumberland.You’ll find me doing the feed rounds, hosting alpaca walk ’n’ talks and driving my tractor (a Massey Ferguson 390T if you like that sort of thing - otherwise it’s big and red!).2.35pm GMTEven poor job and wage growth figures couldn’t hold back US stocks, resulting in all three major indices hitting fresh record highs at the open.The Dow has hit 28,988.01 and we’re still waiting for it to rise above 29,000 for the first time.2.21pm GMTThe proof is in the chart: here you can see how US annual wage growth has held up above 3% between summer 2018 and November 2019.2.03pm GMTThe FT (£) caught on to a notable statistic: this first time that US wage growth has dropped below 3% since July 2018.US wage growth slips below 3% for first time since 2018 https://t.co/YJXyLNmEHh1.56pm GMTFor those of you who saw the earlier tweet, it’s now been revised. (I’ve deleted the previous version in the blog to avoid confusion...)Whoops, got a tweet exactly backwards. Deleting it and tweeting a screenshot to show my shame.