Two former members of Bank of England’s rate-setting committee on Britain’s economic prospects

While stockpiling gave growth a boost, uncertainty is delaying investment and pay increases

IFS study shows Conservatives wrong to plan tax cuts, says John McDonnellThe UK tax system does help reduce the country’s wealth inequality problem, according to a report released on Monday by the Institute for Fiscal Studies, but benefits still do most of the heavy lifting.The findings were seized on by the shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, who said the IFS’s evidence showed that the government was wrong to plan tax cuts. Continue reading...

A new chancellor would have to decide on the spending review and the next Bank of England governorThe Conservative hopefuls lining up to replace Theresa May can be divided into two categories: those with a chance of becoming prime minister and those who see a tilt at the premiership as a way of securing promotion in the new Cabinet. There will be plenty in the second group who fancy their chances of becoming chancellor of the exchequer.There are circumstances in which Philip Hammond could stay at the Treasury. Graham Brady might come from nowhere and decide that continuity is a precious commodity in current circumstances. One of the Brexiters in the running for PM might want to reach out to the remainers in the Conservative party. Continue reading...

British Steel’s collapse reveals the common fate of industries left to fall into the hands of private equityAcross the Midlands and north of England – and in pockets of the south – there are once proud single-industry towns laid low, with no determined effort to make good what once was. It could be Chatham and Rochester in Kent – or Birkenhead, Wigan or Mansfield further north.They survive as economies in which the main business is providing the foundational goods and services necessary to get by – supermarkets, petrol stations, hospitals, care homes. But there are few thriving private sector companies in 21st-century industries, a paucity of opportunity, and wages are below the national average.The high-speed rail network HS2 is set to be put on 'pause' by a scorched-earth Tory government Continue reading...

The ‘alt-right’ would have us believe that the EU is a leftist cabal. It’s actually working for a much more sinister groupWhatever the outcome of the European Union elections, it is only a matter of months before Theresa May’s successor is handed the task of scuttling over to Brussels in a desperate attempt to secure a fresh Brexit deal.When they return empty-handed – which is certain when the project aims to secure access to the customs union, minus any treaty obligations or the Irish backstop – failure will be blamed on forces inside Europe’s “deep state”. A no-deal Brexit can only be the fault of Brussels – and that will be the public relations spin. Continue reading...

Sterling is under pressure after Theresa May announces she’ll resign in June, paving the way for a Brexiteer successor

Clothing sales, a sunny February and web promotions drive fastest online growthBritish shoppers have notched up the fastest quarterly growth in online retail sales on record, in the latest sign of the shifting trends fuelling the decline of the high street.The Office for National Statistics said the amount of goods sold outside of bricks-and-mortar stores increased by 9.4% in the three months to April, the strongest growth of any quarter since comparable records began in June 1988.What's the problem? Continue reading...

Tech innovations have driven the drift down in prices – policymakers ignore such forces at their perilDebates about inflation in advanced economies have changed remarkably over the past decades. Setting aside (mis)measurement issues, concerns about debilitatingly high inflation and the excessive power of bond markets are long gone, and the worry now is that excessively low inflation may hinder growth.Moreover, while persistently subdued – and, on nearly $11tn (£8.7tn) of global bonds, negative – interest rates may be causing resource misallocations and undercutting long-term financial security for households, elevated asset prices have heightened the risk of future financial instability. Also, investors have become highly (and happily) dependent on central banks, when they should be prudently more fearful of them.Related: Trump's trade policy is a hot mess of conflicting goals – with few winners | Jeffrey Frankel Continue reading...

Shares fall sharply in Asia, Europe and North America in intensifying war of wordsThe deepening trade and technology war between the US and China has sent global stock markets sharply lower and prompted a warning from the IMF of the increasing risks to the global economy.Shares fell sharply in Europe and North America on Thursday as investors took fright at the the intensifying war of words between Washington and Beijing, poor news on the American economy, and political chaos in Britain.Related: Trump's trade policy is a hot mess of conflicting goals – with few winners | Jeffrey Frankel Continue reading...

Ex-civil service chief says spending review opportunity to focus on health and happinessPersonal wellbeing rather than economic growth should be the primary aim of government spending, according to a report by the former head of the civil service and politicians.Launching a report urging a sea change in thinking from ministers, Gus O’Donnell, who served as cabinet secretary to three prime ministers, said Britain could lead the world by making wellbeing the goal of government policy.Related: Government may slash three-year spending review due to Brexit Continue reading...

Financial markets hit as tensions between Beijing and Washington escalate, and fears of a no-deal Brexit rise

Government will continue to supply aircraft to be used in war, says Jeremy HuntThe UK government has negotiated a loophole in a German arms export ban to Saudi Arabia that will ensure UK-supplied planes will continue to be used in the war in Yemen, the foreign secretary, Jeremy Hunt, has confirmed.The news is contained in two unpublished letters from cabinet ministers to the parliamentary Committee on Arms Export Controls (CEAC). The aircraft, Tornado fighter bombers and Eurofighter Typhoons, are used in the Saudi bombing raids designed to push back the Houthi rebellion in the four-year civil war in Yemen. The aircraft were developed by consortiums of European companies and Germany supplies spares for them.Related: UK arms exports are still playing a central role in Yemen’s humanitarian crisis | Anna Stavrianakis Continue reading...

Readers respond to the collapse of British Steel, which has put 5,000 jobs directly at risk and endangered thousands more in the supply chainYour editorial (23 May) is surely right to say that Scunthorpe steelworks’ distress was forged in the fires of Brexit, for which this government ought to take responsibility. Jeremy Corbyn ought also to take responsibility, for failing to make the case against Brexit clearly both before and after the referendum.But political infighting is not going to support Scunthorpe and its steelworks. Politicians of goodwill on all sides could perhaps investigate with local people new means of ownership and management of the steelworks, possibly with EU help. These might include a co-operative model, a workers’ or management buyout, a partnership between the government and third-sector organisations, or a completely new model rooted in local circumstances. Continue reading...

Tariffs war with China has hurt almost every segment of the US economyEarlier this month, the US President, Donald Trump, suddenly revealed that a trade agreement between the US and China was not imminent after all. On the contrary, on 10 May the Trump administration raised its previous 10% tariff on $200bn (£158bn) worth of Chinese goods to 25% and threatened to apply the same rate to the remaining $300bn or so of US imports from China by late June. China then retaliated with reciprocal tariffs on $60bn worth of US exports, effective 1 June. Surprised stock markets fell in response, with the S&P 500 down 4% over the first week of the renewed trade war.US trade policy is a hot mess of conflicting goals. Given the current impasse in talks with China, and Trump’s general unpredictability, the inconsistencies of US trade policy – and their costs – are unlikely to go away soon.Related: Could the US-China trade row become a global cold war? | Nouriel RoubiniTo say that both countries gain overall from trade is not to claim that every citizen of each country benefits Continue reading...

Leaving the EU will make life worse for poor and disabled people – but the anger that led to the vote must be addressedUnless austerity ends, the UK’s poorest people face lives that are “solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short”. That was the finding on Wednesday from Philip Alston, the UN rapporteur on extreme poverty, who warned worse could be yet to come “for the most vulnerable, who face a major adverse impact” if Brexit proceeds.Days earlier, down the line at BBC 5 Live, the Brexit party candidate Lucy Harris declared that the average leave voter wants Brexit “at any cost”. Pressed further by presenter Nicky Campbell, Harris admitted this could mean volunteering for “30 years” of economic downturn.Related: Britain is trapped in the purposeless austerity that gave us Brexit | Aditya Chakrabortty Continue reading...

Sterling weakens amid reports of cabinet ministers turning on Theresa May

Longest losing streak takes place since creation of single currency two decades agoThe pound has suffered its longest losing streak against the euro since the creation of the single currency two decades ago as turmoil in Downing Street spilled over into the world’s currency markets.Speculation that Theresa May’s premiership was coming to an end following her failure to win support for her Brexit deal saw sterling drop for a 13th day in a row against the euro.Related: Sterling heads for worst week of the year as Brexit talks collapse Continue reading...

Chris Grover says austerity policies are even more punishing than the workhouse, John Veit-Wilson on social security for everyone, Jack Czauderna on so many reports, Dr David Alderson on why he won’t vote for the Lib Dems, and Paul Nicolson et al on the inequality between renters and landlords or landownersPhilip Alston, the UN rapporteur on extreme poverty, is right to say that austerity has sought to recreate the workhouse for the 21st century (Report, 22 May). The idea of “less eligibility” (that the experience of state support should always be felt as being economically and socially worse than earning a living) underpinned the 19th-century workhouse and frames contemporary austerity policies. But, in the weaponising of less eligibility for today’s precarious labour markets, social security policy goes beyond the oppressiveness of the poor law. Though the experience of the poor law was designed to be deeply unpleasant and grudging, it was also designed to relieve destitution by focusing on the needs of all household members.In contrast, social security policy, particularly after George Osborne’s 2015 budget, is designed to create destitution by, for example, only providing support for two children per household and limiting benefit payments in arbitrary ways via the benefit cap. The Department for Work and Pensions claims that Alston provides a “completely inaccurate picture of our approach to tackling poverty”. If anything, he under-emphasises the regressiveness of contemporary social security policies.

ONS says consumer prices index was 2.1% in April, up from 1.9% in MarchDearer energy bills and a pick-up in the cost of transport have pushed the annual rate of inflation back above the government’s 2% target for the first time in four months.Figures from the Office for National Statistics showed that inflation as measured by the consumer prices index stood at 2.1% in April, up from 1.9% in March.Related: UK inflation driven up by 'brutal' energy bills; Brexit woes hit pound - business live Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as UK factory orders slow and Jamie Oliver’s restaurant chain slides into administration

CBI says ‘economic paralysis’ caused by Brexit is bringing UK ‘ever closer to disaster’Britain’s manufacturing sector has suffered the worst slump in orders for more than two and a half years as the car and textile industries struggled against Brexit headwinds.The CBI said its industrial trends monitor for May showed that without an agreement with the European Union, the manufacturing sector was gripped by “economic paralysis” and moving “ever closer to disaster”. Continue reading...

Intensification of tariff dispute also likely to knock almost $600bn off world economyDonald Trump has been warned by the west’s most influential economics thinktank that further escalation of the US-China trade war would unleash significant damage for the American economy, as well as the rest of the world.The Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said that an intensification of the dispute between Washington and Beijing would likely knock as much as 0.7% off the level of global GDP by 2021-22.Related: US-China trade skirmishes obscure the start of tech cold warUS President Donald Trump Trump has often repeated that China pays for US tariffs on its goods. 'We have billions of dollars coming into our treasury from China. We never had 10 cents coming into our treasury; now we have billions coming in' he said on 24 January 2019. On 5 May he tweeted: 'For 10 months, China has been paying Tariffs to the USA.' Continue reading...

The UK is a rich country, but food poverty is now a daily reality for many families. This is not inevitable

Huawei dispute shows how Washington is seeking to counter Beijing’s use of technology to gain geopolitical supremacyThe decision by Google, Intel and Qualcomm to freeze cooperation with Huawei could mark the point where the rumbling trade war between the US and China becomes a full-blown tech cold war.By excluding China from western know-how, the Trump administration has made it clear that the real battle is about which of the two economic superpowers has the technological edge for the next two decades.Related: 'There will be conflict': Huawei founder says US underestimates company's strengthRelated: The Guardian view on Google versus Huawei: no winners | Editorial Continue reading...

Ren Zhengfei says firm is fully prepared to face US bans and that 5G plans will be unaffectedThe founder of Huawei has said the US “underestimates” the Chinese telecom makers’s strength and that conflict with the US is inevitable in the quest to “stand on top of the world”.Ren Zhengfei said his company was fully prepared to face US bans on key components following new trade restrictions caused by Donald Trump’s declaration of a national economic emergency last weekRelated: US ban on Huawei a ‘cynically timed’ blow in escalating trade war, says firm Continue reading...

Ben Broadbent says projects postponed amid political uncertainty will be cancelledBusinesses would be likely to cancel their investment projects in Britain under a no-deal Brexit, paving the way for weaker economic growth in future, a deputy governor of the Bank of England has warned.Ben Broadbent, a senior policymaker at Threadneedle Street as the deputy governor for monetary policy, said that business investment plans that had been put on ice amid the political uncertainty over Brexit would probably be torn up altogether should the UK leave without a deal. Continue reading...

Chinese phonemaker shut out from Android software after Trump ban

If Donald Trump and Xi Jinping slide into ongoing animosity, the world will pay the priceA few years ago, as part of a western delegation to China, I met Xi Jinping in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People. When addressing us, Xi argued that China’s rise would be peaceful, and that other countries – namely, the US – need not worry about the “Thucydides trap”, so named for the Greek historian who chronicled how Sparta’s fear of a rising Athens made war between the two inevitable. In his 2017 book Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?, Harvard University’s Graham Allison examines 16 earlier rivalries between an emerging and an established power, and finds that 12 of them led to war. No doubt, Xi wanted us to focus on the remaining four.Despite the mutual awareness of the Thucydides trap – and the recognition that history is not deterministic – China and the US seem to be falling into it anyway. Though a hot war between the world’s two major powers still seems far-fetched, a cold war is becoming more likely.Related: US warship sails in disputed South China Sea amid trade tensionsRelated: Google’s Huawei ban is good news: tech giants shouldn’t always get their way | Simon Jenkins Continue reading...

Remove London from the UK’s economy and the nation would fold. Decentralisation would benefit everyoneLondon could be justified in feeling a little unappreciated right now. Britons outside the capital think of its residents as “arrogant” and “insular”, an investigation by the Centre for London has found; London itself is seen as expensive and crowded. Pride in the capital decreases with distance from it, and appears to be declining over time. And while over three-quarters of Brits agree that London contributes to the national economy, just 16% feel it contributes to the economy where they live.There is a long-held and persistent sense that London is too dominant in national life. Some also perceive its success as coming at the expense of the rest of the country – an idea that has re-emerged periodically throughout history, most famously in the 1820s when parliamentarian William Cobbett described the capital as a “Great Wen”, a gigantic cyst draining the life out of the rest of the nation.Related: The Guardian view on London and England: a deep divide | EditorialRelated: London v England: where does your area fit in the great divide? Continue reading...

But as Keynes has shown, loose monetary policy is not the only way to respond to stagnationAlvin Hansen’s timing could hardly have been worse. In early 1939, almost a decade after the Wall Street crash and six months before Hitler invaded Poland, he said America’s best years were behind it. An ageing population, fewer migrants and the exhaustion of existing technologies meant there would never be complete recovery from the Great Depression. Instead, the US was stuck in what Hansen called secular stagnation, in which secular means persistent or long term.The second world war meant the idea of secular stagnation was a five-minute wonder. Demand soared as the US government geared up to fight on two fronts, and strong growth persisted for a quarter of a century after the war ended. Many of the technological innovations of the late 19th and early 20th century – the car, for example – only came into their own in the US post-1945 when family incomes rose and the interstate highway network was built. Continue reading...

As the anniversaries of D-Day and Monte Cassino approach, we should remember how and why the ‘European project’ startedShortly after Thursday’s elections for the European parliament, we shall be witnessing the 75th anniversaries of D-Day and of the terrible carnage of the battle of Monte Cassino. One hopes that memories of these events – or, in many cases, learning about them for the first time – may concentrate minds on all sides in the debate about our future relationship with the rest of Europe.It was the horror of the second world war that led European leaders to bring individual countries together in the hope that future conflict could be avoided. Despite the fantasies of Nigel Farage and his ilk, winning that war was hardly a solo effort on the part of Great Britain. The Americans were an indispensable force in the D-Day landings; Polish forces lost many troops fighting at Monte Cassino. And, of course, the war was won by the allies as a whole, who included the US, Commonwealth countries and, not least, the Soviet Union.What the Remain cause really requires is for Corbyn to acknowledge that 'Europe' is not the enemy of social progress Continue reading...

Official figures mask the growing income disparities dividing BritainBritain needs to wean itself off measures of inequality that disguise more than they reveal about the gap between rich and poor.So says the Institute for Fiscal Studies, which last week used the occasion of its 50th anniversary to launch a five-year quest for better measures of inequality.One factor making it harder to determine wealth inequality is the lack of information about the top 1% Continue reading...

‘Another day of failed politics, another dispiriting day for British business’, says CBIThe pound is on course for its worst week in 2019 after dropping to the lowest level in four months following the collapse of the Brexit talks, as business leaders warn that failure to break the deadlock is damaging the economy.Sterling lost about half a cent against the US dollar on Friday to slide below $1.28 on the international money markets, compounding the steepest weekly decline for the currency since October as the talks between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn ended in acrimony. Continue reading...

Carolyn Fairbairn urges MPs to resolve the gridlock as investor confidence plummetsThe continuing political mess over Brexit is a “crushing disaster” for business in Britain with investor confidence at the lowest since the financial crash a decade ago, the Confederation of British Industry’s director general has said.Carolyn Fairbairn told business leaders in London that “the paralysis” in Westminster continuing “every day without a deal is corrosive” in its effect on Britain’s economy.Related: At last, Tories can begin to talk about Theresa May in the past tense | Rafael Behr Continue reading...

In a visit to a jobcentre, staff told me all was fine. Off the record, others talk of brutal cuts causing starvation and despairCome with me on an eerie visit, where we step through the looking glass into an alternative universe where everything is as good as can be. You will like it here. Everyone smiles: they only want to help their clients fulfil themselves, nothing bad ever happens here. They love their work. This little utopia is the Middlesbrough jobcentre. As everywhere, they are rolling out universal credit to new claimants or existing “clients” with any change of circumstance. Here they prompt unemployed or underemployed people into work or more work, telling them how many jobs to apply for, what appointments and courses to take, and (whisper it) with what penalties if they fail (“But that’s very, very rare”).It has taken me all of seven months’ applying to the Department for Work and Pensions to get here – my requests ignored, forgotten or parked, despite regular prodding. Pre-2010 I often sat in with jobcentre staff: but since then, in department after department, visiting any frontline is tortuous. With HMRC, eight years of requests to visit minimum-wage inspectors has yielded nothing – though they have never been outright refused.Related: Coming soon: the great universal credit deception | Aditya Chakrabortty Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as America hits Huawei with a double-whammy

CEO Gerald Reichmann urges workforce not to be ‘distracted’ by talks over firm’s futureBritish Steel has told its 4,500 employees that “at present” it plans to pay them at the end of the month, as talks between its owners, lenders and the government continue over a £75m bailout package.The company, which has been charged £20m in loan interest and fees by its private equity owner, Greybull Capital, says it needs the government to contribute to a rescue deal to prop up its finances, blaming Brexit-related issues. Continue reading...

40 researchers, educators and campaigners on inequality criticise the makeup of the IFS Deaton review’s expert panel. Plus letters from David Sang and Ian MitchellWe welcome the idea of a major review of inequality (Britain ‘risks heading to US levels of inequality’, 14 May). With Brexit looming and recent analyses linking income inequality to voting for rightwing populists, mass shootings, mental ill health, status consumerism and domestic violence, this is indeed a critical issue for our times.However, there is widespread concern about the composition of this review’s “expert panel”, which has a majority of white economists. Although the panel includes an expert on health inequalities, none of the world’s leading experts on the health and psychosocial effects of income inequality itself are included, nor is there expertise in the spatial aspects of inequality. And there is a conspicuous absence of world-leading economists for whom income inequality is their primary focus – no Piketty, no Stiglitz, no Galbraith, no Frank, no Fitoussi, no Palma, no Chang, no Milanovic. Sir Angus Deaton, leading the review, stated in the journal Science in 2014 that he “get[s] angry” about the theory that inequality has psychological and social effects on health – perhaps he has changed his mind now that his own research has uncovered rising deaths from addiction and suicide in the US, but there are many researchers with much greater depth in this area. Even more troubling, there is no ethnic minority representation on the “expert panel”, no people with lived experience of inequality, no representatives of charities, trade unions or other NGOs. The number of disciplines represented is also small, although the impact of inequality goes far beyond economics. Continue reading...

The last Ebola outbreak, in Sierra Leone, left that country with a huge debt to the IMF, for loans taken on to fight the disease, writes Frances MiddletonAs a veteran door knocker with Christian Aid’s red envelopes, I was horrified to read about the worsening Ebola crisis in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (Report, 15 May). The last Ebola outbreak, in Sierra Leone, left that country with a huge debt to the IMF, for loans taken on to fight the disease. That money is still being repaid, leaving Sierra Leone’s healthcare programmes, such as they are, even worse off. In a country of 7 million people there are 130 doctors.Sierra Leone is the focus of this year’s Christian Aid Week, aiming to fund more health clinics to reduce the number of women who die in childbirth – currently 10 a day. Part of the campaign is a petition asking the government to lobby the IMF to cancel this debt. Please sign it on the Christian Aid Week website. Continue reading...

Germany’s economy has returned to growth, but retail spending has fallen in China and the US

A damning new study on social injustice should mirror the postwar Beveridge report, and call for wholesale changes to the economyReports by the great and the good are ten a penny. All too often they are an excuse for kicking a tricky political issue deep into the long grass. Only rarely do they count for much. Maybe, just perhaps, the review into inequality launched by the Institute for Fiscal Studies and headed by the Nobel prize-winning economist Sir Angus Deaton will be one that makes a difference. It has the potential to be a very big deal indeed, as important in shaping the Britain of the 21st century as the Beveridge report was in the mid-20th century.Related: Tackling inequality means addressing divisions that go way beyond income | Gaby HinsliffRelated: Britain risks heading to US levels of inequality, warns top economist Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, including the latest developments in the US-China trade row

MPs should take inspiration from President Kennedy’s call in 1961 to put a man on the moon within a decade, says Colin Hines. Plus letters from John Stone and Paul AtkinYour editorial (13 May) correctly states that Britain needs a Green New Deal now, and indeed in your letters page last autumn (10 September) our report detailing what form such a “jobs in every constituency” Green New Deal could take, and how to pay for it, was supported by a cross-party group of MPs, NGO leaders and academics. Since then the idea has gained international traction thanks to the likes of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and the support of grassroots movements. The US approach also includes the need to improve economic security for the majority, which has widened its support base. Finally, the scientific data underscoring the need to act in the next 10 years to tackle climate change and biodiversity loss has resulted in unprecedented activist pressure on politicians to respond.As a result, all opposition parties are calling for the declaration of a climate emergency, but the government’s actual policies – from fracking to the rollback of support for renewables and energy efficiency – are making things worse. Yet all is not lost. At the end of last year more than 60 Tory MPs signed an all-party letter calling on the prime minister to back a net zero-emissions target ahead of 2050. Clearly the disconnect here is the lack of necessary political will. MPs should take inspiration from President Kennedy’s call in 1961 to put a man on the moon within a decade, but this time the priority must be to save the planet, rather than leave it.

Rising vacancies and falling unemployment fail to push firms into raising wagesWage growth has slowed in the UK to put a squeeze on living standards despite the unemployment rate falling to its lowest level for more than 40 years.The fall in pay growth to 3.3% on the year in the three months to March, from 3.5% in the three months to February, also came as the buoyant labour market recorded a rise in employment to a new high of 32.7 million.Related: 'You can’t really win': 4m Britons in poverty despite having jobsWholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motor cycles (139,000).Human health and social work activities (134,000).Accommodation and food ( 92,000).Professional, scientific and technical activities (80,000).Manufacturing (61,000). Continue reading...

World markets hit by further losses on Tuesday in wake of Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs on US imports worth $60bnWorld markets plunged further on Tuesday following heavy losses on Wall Street after China delivered a swift rebuff to Donald Trump by imposing retaliatory tariffs on $60bn of US imports.Beijing ignored warnings from Trump about the dangers of escalating the trade conflict and sent tremors through global markets by announcing a new 25% import duty on a range of US products.Related: US-China trade deal: Donald Trump insists there's no rush to secure deal Continue reading...

Beijing retaliates to America’s new tariffs with fresh taxes on US food, machinery and consumer goods, despite president Trump warning them not to