No end in sight for the new dotcom boom as Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft shares soar after results are better than expectedUS stock markets hit new peaks on Friday after forecast-beating results from the technology companies including Google’s parent company Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft .All three saw their shares soar to record highs in the wake of better than expected quarterly updates, adding billions in revenues and increasing profits compared with the same three-month period in 2016. Continue reading...

Central bank appointments are usually non-partisan, but in Trump’s America nothing is certain and the president may ditch traditionUS President Donald Trump’s administration is expected, by 2 November, to announce its choice, subject to Senate approval, to succeed Janet Yellen as chair of the Federal Reserve Board in February 2018. The White House has indicated it is weighing up five potential candidates. Not all of them would be a good choice.The first candidate is Yellen herself. Though Yellen is a Democrat originally appointed by President Barack Obama, there is strong precedent for Trump to re-appoint her. Her three predecessors – Ben Bernanke, Alan Greenspan, and Paul Volcker – were each reappointed to second terms by a president of the opposite party from the one who first appointed them, reflecting the value of continuity and predictability in central banking.Related: US GDP growth report released - business live Continue reading...

Applications for individual voluntary arrangements (IVAs) reach highest level since introduction in 1987British households are increasingly struggling with problem debts, according to alarming official figures, in the starkest indication yet of the UK slipping into the red.Government statistics for England and Wales show applications for individual voluntary arrangements (IVAs) – a means of managing personal debt – reached their highest level since they were introduced in 1987.The spike in their usage comes amid a 10.6% increase in wider insolvencies since the end of June. Continue reading...

I have witnessed the proliferation of gangs and violence, and the rock-bottom morale of staff. The need for funding is now desperate

Halifax survey sounds new warning over health of UK economy with 1 in 5 thinking prices will drop amid rising inflation and looming interest rate hikeConfidence in the UK housing market has slipped to its lowest level in five years, sounding renewed warnings over the health of the economy.One in five British adults surveyed by the Halifax bank expect house prices will fall in the next year, in the weakest reading for consumer expectations since October 2012. Young people under the age of 25 and those living in London are found to be least optimistic.Related: Help to buy has mostly helped housebuilders boost profits Continue reading...

More than a pit stop between resorts, Mahé’s tiny capital boasts lively history and vibrant architecture. But will its melting-pot mores survive a cash influx?The self-styled “Creole capital of the world” makes its play for the title this week celebrating its unique African, Malagasy, Indian, Chinese, French and British blend at a six-day festival. Whether the claim is correct, this provincial city of 27,000 – crammed on to reclaimed mangrove swamps and artificial islands on the main Seychelles island of Mahé – is one of the world’s smallest capitals. Most tourists will know it as a sarong-shopping time killer between the airport – 8km to the south – and the harbour that ferries them to the Seychelles’ other principal islands.

The newly emboldened Chinese leader will exploit US isolationism, giving America its first serious challenge since the collapse of the Soviet UnionIt was a symbolic moment. High in the Swiss Alps, before an audience of the super-rich gathered for their annual shindig in Davos, China’s Xi Jinping delivered a powerful defence of globalisation. Protectionism, he said, was like locking yourself in a dark room. “While wind and rain may be kept outside, that dark room will also block light and air.”On that January day nine months ago, the target for Xi’s comments was more than 4,000 miles away on the other side of the Atlantic, preparing for his inauguration as president a couple of days later. The message was simple: if Donald Trump is going to turn his back on the world, China will fill the vacuum.The US has its weaknesses too, and Trump’s tough guy act should fool nobody. It is unlikely to impress XiRelated: The $900bn question: What is the Belt and Road initiative?Related: We are obsessed with Brexit and Trump: we should be thinking about China | Martin Kettle Continue reading...

Gradual withdrawal of monetary stimulus will see European Central Bank’s bond-buying programme cut from €60bn to €30bn a monthThe European Central Bank (ECB) is to begin weaning the eurozone countries off billions of euros of monetary stimulus, edging back to normality following the recovery from the depths of the sovereign debt crisis nearly a decade ago.The central bank announced on Thursday it would halve its bond-buying programme – used to temper surging debt costs and stimulate lending to households and businesses – from €60bn to €30bn a month starting from January. The ECB pledged a gradual withdrawal of so-called “quantitative easing” to smooth the return to normality without rattling financial markets.Related: ECB asks banks to set aside more cash for bad debt amid €1tn problemRelated: People’s QE risks the Bank of England going bust | Letters Continue reading...

If Jacinda Ardern looks familiar to Britons, she should – she once worked for Tony Blair. Now she must reconcile Labour beliefs with the demands of her disparate backersJacinda Ardern, New Zealand’s new prime minister, has brought Labour back to power after nearly a decade in the wilderness. She became party leader only seven weeks before last month’s general election, and instantly transformed the party’s prospects – only to have the lead she quickly established beaten back in the final days of the campaign by a brutal National party attack on her tax policies. In the end, Labour won 37% of the vote, National 44%, but it was Ms Ardern rather than the National leader Bill English who managed to construct a governing coalition that stretches from the populist New Zealand First party to the Greens, who, for the promise of a climate change commission and more money for the environment, are committed to a confidence-and-supply arrangement – supporting Labour budgets and backing it on confidence motions. Now she has been sworn in, the country’s youngest prime minister in 150 years and its third female leader since 1997.Labour campaigned to reduce child poverty, build more affordable homes, make university free and every river swimmable: so far, so Labour. But she also committed to slow the rate of immigration from 50,000 to 30,000 a year and ensure that employers looked for New Zealand workers before they brought in migrants – even though employment rates are high, and unemployment low and forecast to stay that way. Her first move in power was equally populist: she announced plans to ban foreigners from buying existing homes: New Zealand real estate has become a priority item on the global super-rich’s shopping list, not only for buyers from China and the rest of Asia but for Americans looking for investments secure from the consequences of a Trump presidency – what the New Yorker called Doomsday prep. The discovery that the PayPal founder and Trump supporter Peter Thiel had been given New Zealand citizenship and then bought a £4.5m property on the ultra-desirable Lake Wanaka provoked a media storm, but although Auckland house prices have rocketed to an average price of over NZ$1m, it is not obvious that banning foreign buyers will do much to free up housing for New Zealanders at the affordable end of the market. Continue reading...

The eurozone’s central bank has halved the pace of its money-printing programme, and extended it for another nine months

IFS analysis of HMRC self-assessment data shows 1 in 3 returns under-report tax owed either in error or on purpose rising to 2 in 3 self-employedBed and breakfast owners and taxi drivers are the British workers most likely to underpay their taxes when filing self-assessments, a new analysis shows.More than half of taxpayers in the construction, hospitality, and transport industries are found to under-report their income to HM Revenue and Customs, according to a study of official figures by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS). Continue reading...

CBI survey shows sales dropping at fastest rate since 2009 recession, with consumers cutting back and inflation eroding spending powerHigh street sales are falling at their fastest rate since the height of the recession in 2009 as struggling households put the brakes on spending, according to a survey that is a grim omen for struggling retailers this Christmas.The CBI’s closely watched survey recorded a “steep drop” in retail sales in October. The slump sent shockwaves through the high street, with the CBI’s chief economist, Rain Newton-Smith, warning of a “softening” of demand as inflation ate into Britons’ spending power. Department stores and specialist food and drink outlets bore the brunt of the spending slowdown.Related: Business Today: sign up for a morning shot of financial newsInflation is when prices rise. Deflation is the opposite – price decreases over time – but inflation is far more common.Related: Paddington Bear to front M&S Christmas advertising campaign Continue reading...

To manage public expectations over rising interest rates, the banks should take a leaf from Donald Trump’s book and speak – and tweet – in simple termsAs global economic growth gathers pace, with the International Monetary Fund reporting that all of the G20 countries are now in an expansion phase, we are at last entering a process of normalisation of interest rates and monetary policy. That shift has been a long time coming, and in 2008 few would have forecast that the impact of the financial crisis that erupted that year would be so durable.It is fair to say that policy normalisation is proceeding at different speeds in different places. The US Federal Reserve is furthest ahead, having already lifted rates twice, while in the eurozone and Japan, normalisation is more anticipated than experienced. But the general direction of change is clear.Related: Britain's ready for interest rate rise, says Lloyds boss Continue reading...

Services sector drives faster-than-expected expansion of economy in the third quarter, but uncertainty over Brexit deal still affecting long-term outlookBritish consumers have been put on notice for an interest rate rise next week, as official figures show the economy expanding faster than expected in the three months to September.GDP grew by 0.4% in the third quarter of 2017 following expansion of 0.3% in the three months to June, according to the Office for National Statistics. City economists had forecast growth of 0.3%.

Britain’s growth rate picked up in the last three months, but remains ‘subpar’ amid uncertainty over the UK’s future

António Horta-Osório may have tried to calm concerns over Brexit, but others will be less confidentLet’s hope António Horta-Osório is right. The chief executive of Lloyds Banking Group makes the immediate outlook for the UK seem, if not rosy, then at least steady. The economy is “resilient”. Borrowers can cope with a quarter-point rise in interest rates to 0.5%. And we shouldn’t get too excited about the increase in consumer debt because levels are still 25% below those of a decade ago.These are all fair points, and Lloyds’ third-quarter results illustrated the theme of resilience. The bank’s percentage of impaired loans continues to run at historically low levels, despite a hit from an unnamed and mysterious “single large corporate”. Impairment charges over the nine months rose 20% to £538m but the loan book itself is larger after the purchase of the MBNA credit card business. Continue reading...

One piece of data means little. In truth, prospects for other developed economies look set to improve while the UK’s outlook continues to darkenThe best one-word description of today’s GDP figures is “contested”. Brexiteers have seized on the fact that the economy grew by 0.4% in the last quarter, marginally ahead of the expected 0.3%, as further evidence that the warnings about leaving the EU were simply part of “project fear”. Meanwhile, pro-remain voices have been quick to retort that 0.4% is a still a very low number and that the annual growth rate of the economy has slipped to just 1.5% in the latest release, against 1.9% in the last quarter before the referendum. The messy politics of low, but not actually disastrously low, growth feel familiar to anyone who watched the UK economic debate in 2011 and 2012.At risk of being called a spoilsport, it’s never worth investing too much time in arguing about or overanalysing one piece of economic data – especially when it is the first of three estimates and due to be revised in a few weeks’ time in any case. Whatever the final number ends up as, the bigger picture is looking increasingly clear. The UK economy has slowed considerably over the past decade. In the years before the financial crisis we became accustomed to quarterly growth of about 0.7% and yet today some people are arguing that 0.4% is a “good result”.Related: UK GDP: Britain's economy grew by 0.4% as Brexit slowdown continues - business liveWith the UK population sitting on £1,630.1bn of debt it’s easy to see how interest-rate hikes could cause problems Continue reading...

Post-crash, the UK’s economic growth has not recovered. New fiscal freedoms for the regions are among the bold measures that could rescue itThe news that our recovery is now slower than after the Great Depression should sound the death knell of an economic model that simply isn’t working.The figures are salutary. When Wall Street sneezed in 1929, the UK very quickly caught the cold. By 1932, the economy had shrunk by more than 5%. Unemployment spiralled to an extraordinary 17%, setting the stage for turbulent politics fuelled by the rise of both the British Communist party, which elected its first MP in 1935, and Oswald Mosley’s British Union of Fascists.After almost a decade of low growth and despite almost full employment, output is refusing to bounce back to old normsRelated: UK GDP: Britain's economy grew by 0.4% as Brexit slowdown continues - business live Continue reading...

UK’s biggest mortgage lender says borrowers can withstand a gradual rate rise as the economy remains resilientBritain’s borrowers can withstand the impact of the first rise in interest rates in a decade, the chief executive of Lloyds Banking Group said on Wednesday.António Horta-Osório believes any increase from the current record low of 0.25% would be gradual and said the bank – the biggest mortgage lender and savings institution in the UK – did not expect rates to reach 1% until 2019.Related: First UK interest rate rise in a decade still likely despite modest growth Continue reading...

The absence of a post-Brexit vote recession, potential wage inflation and the Bank’s hawkish comments all point toward a riseIt wasn’t much, but for the Bank of England the slight pickup in growth will probably be enough to trigger the first increase in official interest rates in more than a decade.The economy’s trend rate of growth is a touch above 2% a year, so by that benchmark the 0.4% rise in gross domestic product in the third quarter was modest. Growth has been weaker in the first three quarters of 2017 than it was in the six months after the June 2016 EU referendum.Related: UK interest rate rise likely as GDP beats forecast to grow by 0.4%Related: Can an interest rate rise halt UK inflation? Experts debate the data Continue reading...

Enthusiasm for Richard Thaler’s work on behavioural economics means economists have more influence than ever. But their failures contributed to the financial crisis – and we’re being distracted, say Tiago Mata and Jack WrightThe praise is still pouring in for Richard Thaler, winner of the 2017 Sveriges Riksbank prize in economic sciences in memory of Alfred Nobel. The news was described as “wonderful”, “well-deserved … and clarifying,” and BBC Radio 4’s More or Less explained that Thaler is an “amazing economist”. All this praise is due because Thaler has shown better than anyone that behavioural economics can be an engine of policy innovation. Thaler has turned failure into success, helping economists thrive during a financial crisis that they had failed to avert.Thaler is a best-selling author and an entertaining speaker who is never short of an anecdote to explain himself. It has been easy to describe the “endowment effect” – how we overvalue our possessions – or the “problem of self-control” in cartoons or on the radio. But Thaler’s insights, named in the award, are not why he is important. His true value lies in the fact that behavioural economics has refashioned economists as designers and evaluators of legislative and regulatory policy. Continue reading...

Exclusive: Billionaire media mogul says it is ‘hard to understand why a country doing so well wanted to ruin it’Michael Bloomberg, the billionaire media mogul and former mayor of New York, has said Brexit is the “single stupidest thing any country has ever done” apart from the election of Donald Trump as US president.Bloomberg argued that “it is really hard to understand why a country that was doing so well wanted to ruin it” with the Brexit vote, in a series of outspoken remarks made at a technology conference in Boston a fortnight ago.Related: With evidence of a failing Brexit, who needs prophecy? | Rafael Behr Related: Trump won't stop Americans hitting the Paris climate targets. Here's how we do it | Michael Bloomberg Continue reading...

All the day’s economic and financial news, as Sir Jon Cunliffe says the timing of Britain’s first interest rate rise since 2007 is an “open question”

Restrictions on capital movement have reduced in recent decades, as capitalists who have outgrown their national homes have increasingly dominated the world, writes David KaultGary Younge’s article (Opinion, 16 October) supporting open borders is misguided. He claims migration across open borders occurred through history. However, apart from migration as part of conquest, even international tourism was rare – so that Marco Polo was considered remarkable. Younge then contrasts today’s free movement of capital with restriction on free movement of labour. Restrictions on capital movement have reduced in recent decades, as capitalists who have outgrown their national homes have increasingly dominated the world. These same forces also want free movement of labour. This has been resisted, as it clearly leads to the globalisation of poverty.While open borders are a nice ideal, in the current context those who think of themselves as “left” who prioritise open borders, are supporting international capital’s globalisation of poverty. When they denigrate the resistance to this global capitalist project, displayed by disadvantaged people throughout the developed world, they are driving it into the arms of the far right.

Borrowing should raise ‘red flags’ as losses can be sudden and sharp and could worsen if interest rate rises, rating agency says

Bank calls for water to be treated as valuable resource as study into impact details lack of water’s devastating lifelong scars on children

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Two former members of the Bank of England’s rate-setting committee discuss the outlook for the UK economyProfessor of economics at Dartmouth College, New Hampshire, and member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee (MPC) from June 2006 to May 2009Inflation is when prices rise. Deflation is the opposite – price decreases over time – but inflation is far more common.Related: How has the Brexit vote affected the UK economy? October verdictRelated: The Brexit economy: the storm clouds are gathering Continue reading...

How has the economy reacted to the vote to leave the EU? Each month we look at key indicators to see what effect the Brexit process has on growth, prosperity and trade in the UK Continue reading...

Guardian analysis of key economic figures paints a picture of deepening gloom, with rising inflation denting consumer spending and investmentThe Bank of England is seriously considering raising rates for the first time in 10 years against a backdrop of lacklustre economic growth, as a Guardian analysis shows the Brexit vote sapping business confidence and hitting household income.

A breakdown of Australia’s highest and lowest income, levels of mortgage stress and unpaid domestic work by gender won’t come as a shock to anyoneThe latest release of data from the 2016 census reveals the ageing population has seen a shift in the makeup of our workforce with more people employed as community and personal service workers than ever before. The census data also confirms previous data suggesting that the cutting of interest rates has made servicing a mortgage easier over the past five year. But while the shift in work has seen an increase in carers and domestic cleaners, the census also reveals that women continue to the do bulk of the housework.It will probably not come as a shock to anyone that the electorate with the highest median mortgage is that held by our prime minister. The latest batch of census data released yesterday revealed than in 2016, the median monthly mortgage in the seat of Wentworth was $3,000 – some $30 a month higher than the second most expensive electorate to have a mortgage – that of Warringah, held by the previous prime minister Tony Abbott.Related: Boom and bust: five census maps that show how Australia has changedRelated: Australian census map: the results, region by region – interactive Continue reading...

The Jarrow march didn’t achieve much, says Judith Martin, while Eddie Dougall says Tory MPs should try living on benefits for a year, and Alison Rooks points out that if they do, they’ll have to borrow to pay their mortgage interestThere is a painting by Thomas Cantrell Dugdale in the Geffrye Museum in Hackney: The Arrival of the Jarrow Marchers in London, Viewed From an Interior (1930s show economic disaster needs a radical response, 23 October). A woman in evening dress leans over the back of a sofa to look out on to an elegant street at the black-clad crowd below, while the man on the sofa can’t even be bothered to turn his head.Unsurprisingly perhaps, the Jarrow march accomplished almost nothing – like the Occupy protesters 75 years later. Parliament received the marchers’ petition but declined to debate it. It took rearmament for the second world war to provide any meaningful relief for Jarrow, and then it was short lived, over even before the coming of Thatcher. Alan Price’s stirring Jarrow Song was written in 1974. Continue reading...

Survey of companies finds half are holding back planned investment because of uncertainty over exit from EUBritain’s manufacturers are putting the brakes on investment plans as uncertainty over Brexit makes them more reluctant to spend money on new factories and machinery, a report reveals.The amount invested by UK manufacturers in new plant and machinery has slowed to 6.5% of turnover, from 7.5% last year, according to a survey by EEF, the industry trade body, as companies press the pause button until there is further clarity on a Brexit deal.Related: UK business chiefs unite to demand urgent Brexit transition deal Continue reading...

Five major lobby groups write letter to David Davis in latest sign of employers’ growing alarm about state of talks with EUUK business leaders have united to urge David Davis to quickly establish a Brexit transition deal that mirrors existing arrangements or risk losing British jobs and investment.In a letter to the Brexit secretary seen by the Guardian, five of the UK’s biggest business lobby groups said time was running out for the government to strike a transition deal before firms start to rein in spending plans as they finalise budgets for 2018 and prepare to implement contingency plans for Britain’s departure from the EU.The EU27’s negotiating guidelines for the two-year Brexit talks stipulate that they must take place in two phases: separation and “orderly withdrawal”, followed by future relationship. Only when the EU27 decide “sufficient progress” has been made on phase one can phase two begin.

New data suggests life is getting tougher now for working-age adults than in the lost decade of the 1930sThe 1930s are the benchmark when it comes to lost decades. There are recessions and deep recessions, but then there is the Great Depression. In terms of sustained misery, nothing remotely comes close to the 10-year period that followed the Wall Street Crash of 1929.Yet in one respect – growth in living standards – the performance of the UK since the financial crisis began in 2007 has been worse than it was in the era that included coming off the Gold Standard, the formation of the National Government and the Jarrow March.Gross domestic product (GDP) is a key government statistic and provides a measure of the UK's total economic activity.Related: A weak pound is no tonic for UK's long-term economic recovery Continue reading...

GDP watchers will be out in force this week as third-quarter figures are revealedThis week’s big economic number is GDP for the third quarter, due on Wednesday morning. Economists reckon output rose by 0.3% or 0.4% in the three months to the end of September.Assuming the figure isn’t lower than expectations, economy watchers will turn quickly to the underlying trends, such as business investment. The economy has confounded predictions of a sharp post-Brexit vote slowdown or recession, mainly because of resilient consumer spending. Continue reading...

As chancellor, his enemy was rising prices – which is precisely what has followed the vote to leave the EUA few years ago I shared a platform with my old friend Lord Lawson at a conference on our membership of the European Union. This was some time before the infamous referendum. The event was good-tempered, and it will come as no surprise to readers that Lawson was, in a term yet to be coined, a “Leaver”, and your correspondent was not.What surprised me over subsequent coffee and drinks was the number of successful, and obviously intelligent, people in the audience who thanked Lawson and me for having covered the history of the EU. It turned out some of the audience had only the vaguest idea why, to use the original title, the European Economic Community was set up in the first place. Continue reading...

The chancellor must act in the name of fairness to younger people, and the budget would be the perfect moment to do soAs Philip Hammond prepares to defend his £12bn of welfare cuts in his autumn budget, pensioners can consider themselves lucky to be financially insulated.While most people on low and middle incomes are finding their spending power squeezed by rising inflation and cuts to in-work benefits, the triple lock on pensions is safe. Continue reading...

Workers in public sector received hourly earnings of 0.6% less than their private counterparts, for first time since 2008 financial crashPublic sector workers’ pay has dipped below that of their private sector counterparts for the first time since the financial crash, Treasury figures obtained by the GMB union reveal.The disparity, after seven years of austerity and cuts to public spending, will pile pressure on the chancellor, Philip Hammond, to abandon the public sector pay cap in next month’s budget. The analysis of hourly earnings shows that last year public sector workers were paid 0.6% less than private sector colleagues in similar jobs. By comparison, they enjoyed a premium of 3.1% compared with the private sector in 2005, rising to 5.8% in 2010. Continue reading...

Lucy Masoud blames tragedy on austerity and says decision makers don’t care about social housing tenants

Inflation-fuelled rise in VAT receipts cheers chancellor ahead of budget but analysts warn of OBR cut in forecasts and further Brexit uncertaintyBritain’s budget deficit has fallen to its lowest level in any September for the last 10 years, as higher than-expected tax recepits handed Philip Hammond a boost ahead of next month’s autumn budget.The 11% drop from September last year shows the government’s finances putting in a better than expected performance despite recent Brexit turmoil and a sharp slowdown in GDP growth.The government's finances are measured each month by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Tax receipts make up the vast majority of government income, while spending on welfare and services make up most of its outgoings.Related: UK budget deficit narrows as shoppers boost VAT receipts Continue reading...

Former directors reject claim by bank shareholders that Gordon Brown’s government pushed bank into buying HBOS to avoid nationalisationLloyds Bank and five of its former directors “emphatically reject” allegations they were bullied into taking over HBOS, their QC has told the high court.Helen Davies was responding to claims made by 6,000 Lloyds shareholders, who have brought a £600m compensation claim that they were not given a true picture of the financial health of HBOS when they voted through the takeover in November 2008. Continue reading...

Supermarkets and petrol stations hardest hit as lacklustre pay growth and rising inflation dent spending powerHigh street sales slumped last month, pushing the UK retail sector to its lowest growth rate in four years for the three months to the end of September as the impact of rising inflation and sluggish wage growth dented consumer spending power.Official figures showed the amount of goods bought by consumers fell 0.8% in September and set the UK on course for a period of slow growth in the run-up to Christmas.Related: Sainsbury's to cut 2,000 jobs across UK Continue reading...

Average earnings of UK workers are now no higher than they were in February 2006, official figures reveal

All the day’s economic and financial news, including the latest UK labour force statistics

Latest UK labour market snapshot shows 70s model of wage-price spiral is dead and adds to argument against interest rate rise

President says potential deal will generate thousands of US jobs as he praises Greece’s economic recovery during visit by Alexis Tsipras to White HousePresident Donald Trump reaffirmed the United States’ commitment to Greece’s economic recovery at the White House on Tuesday, a meeting that allowed the country’s prime minister to brush aside rough comments he made about Trump during the 2016 campaign.Related: Yanis Varoufakis: ‘I would like to live in a world where we’re all privileged’Related: Greek PM meets Donald Trump amid growing US tensions with TurkeyGreece should get out of the euro & go back to their own currency--they are just wasting time. Continue reading...

After Boeing tried to kill Bombardier’s C-Series plane in its infancy, Airbus’s actions secure it a sizeable stake and Bombardier wins a powerful allyComeuppance for a corporate bully rarely arrives so swiftly or so elegantly. Boeing attempted to kill Bombardier’s C-Series plane in its infancy by getting US trade authorities to impose stiff import tariffs. Now those heavy-handed legal tactics have produced an outcome that could be damaging in the long-term for Boeing. Arch-rival Airbus has swooped from the wings to grab majority control of the C-Series and proclaim that the 300% tariffs can be side-stepped via the simple remedy of conducting the final assembly of planes destined for US customers in Alabama.If Airbus’s plan works, it’s ingenious. It will get a 50.1% stake in the C-Series without paying a penny and will collect some cheap warrants on Bombardier’s shares. Bombardier wins in the sense that it now has a partner with the financial muscle and supply chains to make a success of the C-Series. Continue reading...

The economic skies are darkening over Britain. Theresa May has little alternative but to make concessions that will protect UK jobs and businessesWhen she became prime minister in 2016, Theresa May gave the impression of knowing exactly what kind of Brexit she wanted. In speeches and interviews, she made clear that Brexit was about breaking with the EU in line with the referendum, taking control of national borders, leaving European institutions including the court of justice, becoming a global free trader and, almost as an afterthought, remaining good neighbours with Europe. To the domestic audience she insisted that the essential message of the referendum was about migration control, and she implied that, though there might be economic blips along the way, she had the leadership skills to persuade the country that the gain was worth the pain.That strategy now looks very threadbare. Parts are in tatters. Others have been turned on their heads. The underlying problem for Mrs May and her government is that the fantasy of 2016 is running ever harder and more often into the reality of 2017. The reality is that the impact of Brexit on jobs, living standards and the economy is proving much more severe and much more fundamental that she had hoped in the early months of her premiership. The reality is that “global Britain” is a delusion cooked up by the Tory party’s obsessive anti-Europeans. The reality is that the UK’s post-Brexit relationship to the EU, its single market and its customs union is far more consequential than anything else on her agenda. The reality is that Mrs May threw away her authority in June, and that public opinion is losing confidence in the Brexit vision she promoted a year ago. Continue reading...