It’s not the Trump effect or tax cuts. Americans seem to have a strong desire to own capitalThe level of stock markets differs widely across countries. And right now, the United States is leading the world. What everyone wants to know is why – and whether its stock market’s current level is justified.We can get a simple intuitive measure of the differences between countries by looking at price-earnings ratios. I have long advocated the cyclically adjusted price-earnings (CAPE) ratio that John Campbell (now at Harvard University) and I developed 30 years ago.Related: Dow Jones tops 26,000 for first time as stock market boom continues Continue reading...

Grimbarians feel isolated many times over: from London, from Britain and from the fishing industry that once opened it to the world. Yet among the concern, Tim Burrows finds new energy. All images by Christopher ThomondZoe Moore grew up in Grimsby, not far from her family’s chip shop. She visited the docks every day with her mum to buy the fish they would later skin, fillet and fry. Now Moore is a manager for Young’s Seafood, which supplies the breaded cod found in the freezers of corner shops countrywide; she attended last year’s carnival dressed as a fish finger. The twentysomething is a Grimbarian made good, but she’s not celebrating. Something is wrong in her town.“Mum’s had CCTV [installed] on her house,” says Moore. “People try to steal cars on her street. They even cut the brake lines [of her car] and put fireworks in it. There have been stabbings. It’s awful.”This community was built around an industry that doesn’t exist any moreIf a local person can say, ‘I designed that,’ you are a long way to breaking the back of the chip on their shoulderIf you come to Grimsby, you come for a reasonRelated: Made in Stoke-on-Trent – Episode 1: We Have Lift-offSome consultants told us of all the wonderful plans for Grimsby. Everybody got very excited about it. Nothing happenedThere is great concern, but great hope as wellI don’t know whether Grimsby has an audience for critical art yet, but you don’t until you’ve triedRelated: Made in Stoke-on-Trent – Episode 2: £1 for a House Continue reading...

PwC survey to mark opening of Davos finds most companies are optimistic about growthNine out of 10 business leaders in Britain are upbeat about the growth prospects for their companies over the coming year despite uncertainty about the impact of Brexit, the consultancy firm PwC has reported.In its annual survey of chief executives to mark the start of the World Economic Forum in Davos, PwC found that optimism about the health of the global economy was boosting confidence.Related: IMF lifts global growth forecast, but cuts UK growth in 2019 - business liveRelated: The Guardian view on Davos and inequality: a demagogue takes advantage Continue reading...

The idea that disadvantaged people place undue strain on the system won’t go away. But the problem is underfunding – not people who eat too many chipsAnyone still observing dry January may be on to something: last week the Big Issue’s founder, John Bird, launched the magazine’s “NHS pledge”: a request for readers and supporters to “volunteer for the NHS by staying healthy” and not become “a drain” on its time and resources. The depiction of individual people as a drain on resources understandably left many of us bridling – as it fits the narrative promoted by the government and its supporters that the key problem facing our healthcare system is too much demand, rather than too little funding.Yes, we could all do more to take responsibility for our own health. But health and the decisions we make about health are complex, as any doctor will tell you, and poverty is a crucial factor. Such admonishments about personal responsibility are invariably directed at the poor, so that the deserving/undeserving poor become deserving/undeserving patients. Eating habits in particular are endlessly scrutinised, with the “let them eat gruel” trope regularly trotted out. Why on earth do poor people go hungry, wonder rich people, when porridge is so cheap?Yes, we could all do more to take responsibility for our own health. But the decisions we make are complexRelated: NHS crisis is main worry for Conservative voters, poll suggests Continue reading...

Davos report says changes will encourage investment, but that shot in the arm will only be short-lived

Maastricht treaty limits on public spending may have fuelled private finance, argues Ted Watson. Plus other readers’ views on the controversial funding mechanismGeorge Monbiot (Opinion, 17 January) asserts that the PFI bosses fleeced us all. Twenty years ago there were exceptions. Oxfordshire county council and many other councils recognised its deceptive creative accounting and avoided using PFI.Central government does not distinguish between irresponsible borrowing for revenue and responsible borrowing for capital. Both are in the public spending borrowing requirement (PSBR) which central government wished to present as low (a high PSBR leads to austerity to reduce it), so it restricted local government’s borrowing and used PFI to disguise its own borrowing. Continue reading...

Extreme weather, such as droughts in Australia, pose significant risk to growth, IMF warnsThe International Monetary Fund has lifted its forecasts for global growth, saying momentum is building in global economic activity and Donald Trump’s tax cuts in the US are likely to stimulate activity further.It says the growth momentum is expected to carry into 2018 and 2019, and it has revised upwards its global growth forecasts by 0.2 percentage points for both years, from 3.7% to 3.9%.Related: Top 1% of Australians own more wealth than bottom 70% combinedRelated: Technology will widen pay gap and hit women hardest – Davos report Continue reading...

Staying inside EU customs union is vital, Carolyn Fairbairn will tell Theresa May

Oxfam calls for action on gap as wealthiest people gather at World Economic Forum in DavosThe development charity Oxfam has called for action to tackle the growing gap between rich and poor as it launched a new report showing that 42 people hold as much wealth as the 3.7 billion who make up the poorest half of the world’s population.Related: Project Davos: what's the single best way to close the world's wealth gap?Related: Young people warned: economic focus on short-term growth is failing you Continue reading...

Democracies will fall under the spell of populists like Donald Trump if they fail to deal with the fallout of globalisationThe rich, as F Scott Fitzgerald noted, “are different from you and me”. Their wealth, he wrote, makes them “cynical where we are trustful” and their affluence makes them think they are “better than we are”. These words ring truest among the billionaires and corporate executives flocking to the Swiss ski resort of Davos this week. The highs recorded by stockmarkets, the tremendous monopoly power of tech titans and spikes in commodity prices reassure the rich cosmocratic class that they have weathered the storm of the financial crisis. The moguls can talk safely about inequality and poverty. But they will do little about it because they do not think their best interests are aligned with citizens. This is a mistake of historic proportions.Since 2015, Oxfam calculates, the richest 1% have owned more wealth than the rest of the planet. The very wealthy think they no longer share a common fate with the poor. Whatever the warm words at Davos, no company bosses will put their hands up to the fact they play one country against another in order to avoid taxes; no firm will be honest about their attempts to stymie trade unions or about how they lobby against government regulation on labour, environment or privacy that tilts the balance of power away from them and towards the public. The largest western corporations and banks now roam the globe freely. As memories of the financial crisis recede, they are going back to the myth that they are no longer dependent on national publics or governments. Lobbyists for the corporate world claim that markets are on autopilot, that government is a nuisance best avoided.Davos is a Swiss ski resort now more famous for hosting the annual four-day conference for the World Economic Forum. For participants it is a festival of networking. Getting an invitation is a sign you have made it – and the elaborate system of badges reveals your place in the Davos hierarchy.

Readers respond to Andy Beckett’s recent Guardian articleAndy Beckett’s long read was elucidating and possibly prescient (Post-work: is the job finished?, 19 January). However, it’s not just a matter of whether workers can survive having the time and freedom of post-work but also how to manage the transition from one to the other. As a retiree of almost 70, most of my friends and I fill our days with meaningful activity alongside pleasurable family and leisure time. Nonetheless, some of them found it hard to make the switch.Fortunately the health service allowed me to cut down my job to half-time working at first, and this helped the process of letting go. Then, when leaving the NHS, I was fortunate to still have a private practice for a further six years, for which some of my friends envied me. They told me of the near trauma of stopping work being like falling off a cliff before they found new roles with which to challenge themselves and utilise their talents. Continue reading...

Readers respond to the Guardian’s call for a caring capitalismWhen I started as an inner-city priest in Elephant and Castle in 1973, belief in social justice abounded, together with hope and confidence in community work. As vicar of Tottenham in the 80s, the years preceding the Broadwater Farm riots, I watched the erosion of community wellbeing with mounting horror and was surprised the riots didn’t come earlier. In myriad ways since 2010, the Guardian, a lonely beacon of light and hope, has tracked daily the downward spiral to the destitution, homelessness, child poverty and collapse of social care that is the quagmire of Westminster governed England today. Your editorial on caring capitalism (20 January) is no exception.Now it’s time to cut the tosh. I don’t say put all the sophisticated analyses on the side of the plate. But let’s focus on how simple it is: human beings, like plants, need the water and warmth of love to thrive, even to survive. This includes what I’ll call social love. Millions are not receiving it. A generous view of shared humanity is fundamental to the wellbeing of everyone, including the rich. I want it back.

As global economy booms, crises in social, environmental and political landscape aboundThere are more beautiful towns in Switzerland than Davos but the high alps that ring the valley in which it sits are picture-postcard perfect, especially when the rising sun kisses the mountain tops at dawn. But appearances can be deceptive and the snow defences that girdle the slopes are a reminder that this is avalanche country, stunning yet fragile.This is something members of the 1% would do well to remember as they gather in for the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum this week.Davos is like a giant gated community where the 1% can pretend that they care about the other 99% Continue reading...

Leave campaigners’ visions of national renewal depend on a level of commercial vibrancy that the UK can no longer musterBrexit, at its heart, is a recognition that Britain has become steadily weaker since it spent much of its empire wealth fighting two world wars – too feeble in the years before the 2016 referendum to sustain an exchange rate of $1.60 and €1.40, just as it was too poor to cope with $4 to the pound in the 1950s and $2 to the pound in 1992.Manufacturers were unable to make things cheaply, reliably or efficiently enough against the headwind of a high-value currency, forcing many to give up. An economy that boasted 20% of its income coming from manufacturing in the 1980s found it was the source of barely 10% at the beginning of this decade.Brexit is only something – even if you accept the premise of socialism or free-market bonanza – that works on paper Continue reading...

A conciliatory speech would alienate his base; a repudiation of Nafta would create shockwaves. Either way, this is a significant momentThe annual meeting of the World Economic Forum will come to a climax on Friday when Donald Trump becomes the first US president since Bill Clinton to address the Davos talkfest.To say that Trump’s lunchtime speech is eagerly awaited is an understatement. Excitement has been building ever since the White House announced that the president would join Emmanuel Macron, Theresa May and Narendra Modi at this year’s event. Continue reading...

The World Economic Forum focuses on the ‘fractured world’ this year: but the biggest star at the gala will be Donald TrumpDonald Trump will loom large at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos this week, as the self-styled anti-globalist joins the annual gathering of billionaires, business executives and politicians.The meeting at the luxury ski resort in the Swiss Alps at the start of each year is set to be dominated by the US president, who is due to give a special address to the conference on Friday. Continue reading...

Last week we asked some of our writers to tell us what they hope to cover in 2018. This week we put the question to our supporters

After cancelling UK visit, US president will discuss foreign policy at World Economic ForumTheresa May will meet Donald Trump when they both attend the World Economic Forum in Davos next week.Downing Street and the White House confirmed that the pair would hold a bilateral session, which is likely to focus on foreign policy issues such as Syria and North Korea.Related: Boris Johnson: 'Let us have a grown-up conversation with our American friends' Continue reading...

UK retail sales fell by 1.5% in December in the latest sign that consumers were feeling the strain of falling real pay over the crucial Christmas shopping period

It is time to base the economy on a more rounded view of human nature than that one that just considers individuals as selfish calculators of utilityThe zero-sum game of competition for money and status that has gripped societies over the past 30 years have made their publics richer overall and given them longer lives of better quality. It has led to an embarrassing wealth of consumer goods. But it is also increasingly clear that the me-first model of modern economies is a big source of unhappiness. When life feels like a cut-throat contest each one of us is encouraged to chase income and rank. In a rat race improving one’s income causes others to feel dissatisfied with theirs. One person’s pay rise is another’s psychic loss. Envy spreads despair, encouraging workers to devote more time to making money than to family or community.Such competition weighs heavily on national wellbeing. A slice of Britain seem to be losing hope; the lives of poorer citizens are unhappier than their richer peers in ways that simply having less money cannot explain. Our story revealing that private insurers refuse policies to people suffering even mild mental health conditions shows how those who suffer could be shut out of society. Medical research shows that happier people heal quicker, worrying given measures of wellbeing show the proportions of people satisfied with their health, home and income to have fallen over the past three years. Continue reading...

As political and business leaders gather for their annual summit on the global economy, we want to know what key step you think they should prioritise to tackle inequalityDonald Trump and Angela Merkel will join 2,500 world leaders, business executives and charity bosses at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland which kicks off on 23 January. High on the agenda once again will be the topic of inequality, and how to reduce the widening gap between the rich and the rest around the world.The WEF recently warned that the global economy is at risk of another crisis, and that automation and digitalisation are likely to suppress employment and wages for most while boosting wealth at the very top.Davos is a Swiss ski resort now more famous for hosting the annual four-day conference for the World Economic Forum. For participants it is a festival of networking. Getting an invitation is a sign you have made it – and the elaborate system of badges reveals your place in the Davos hierarchy.

The Netherlands knows what it will lose if the UK crashes out. It is less than the price of giving Britain a sweet dealBecause it is such a riveting clown show with new crazy episodes almost every day, Europeans can be forgiven for ignoring the fact that Brexit is going to hurt them too. But as the date of Britain’s departure comes closer and Theresa May’s government continues its kamikaze policy of demanding the politically unthinkable from the EU, it is time for Europeans to wake and begin preparing for the worst.On Thursday the Dutch government published a report drawn up by the consultancy firm KPMG analysing the consequences of a “no-deal” Brexit in which the UK leaves the EU without an agreement on 29 March 2019. Here are the practical implications and cold numbers behind the hot-headed rhetoric about no deal with the EU being “better than a bad deal” for Britain: should the UK “crash” out of the EU by late March 2019 the Dutch companies trading with the UK will have to secure a total of no less than 4.2m exporting and 750,000 importing licences. If by this time both states have a functioning customs system in place – a big if for this consistently incompetent UK government – costs for companies are between €80 and €130. That is per licence.A hard Brexit could make every Dutch person poorer by an average of €1,000Related: Through humility and understanding, we can still stop Brexit | Andrew Adonis Continue reading...

Spending fell 1.5% in December as consumers brought forward purchases to Black FridayBritish shoppers sharply reined in spending over the Christmas period, as Black Friday deals encouraged them to purchase presents earlier, rounding off the weakest year for retail sales growth since 2013.

Work has ruled our lives for centuries, and it does so today more than ever. But a new generation of thinkers insists there is an alternative. By Andy BeckettWork is the master of the modern world. For most people, it is impossible to imagine society without it. It dominates and pervades everyday life – especially in Britain and the US – more completely than at any time in recent history. An obsession with employability runs through education. Even severely disabled welfare claimants are required to be work-seekers. Corporate superstars show off their epic work schedules. “Hard-working families” are idealised by politicians. Friends pitch each other business ideas. Tech companies persuade their employees that round-the-clock work is play. Gig economy companies claim that round-the-clock work is freedom. Workers commute further, strike less, retire later. Digital technology lets work invade leisure.In all these mutually reinforcing ways, work increasingly forms our routines and psyches, and squeezes out other influences. As Joanna Biggs put it in her quietly disturbing 2015 book All Day Long: A Portrait of Britain at Work, “Work is … how we give our lives meaning when religion, party politics and community fall away.”Related: Do you work more than 39 hours a week? Your job could be killing youRelated: What happens when the jobs dry up in the new world? The left must have an answer | John Harris Continue reading...

Tom Kibasi on proposals for a ‘digital commons’ and increasing worker ownership, Andy Chapman on Common Good Balance Sheets, and Peter Taylor-Gooby on better education, more training and decent cheap childcareIn introducing his welcome new series on economic alternatives, Aditya Chakrabortty rightly castigates those who continue to promote the failed economic ideas of the past (It’s time to take on the zombies, 17 January). But he underestimates the extent to which a vibrant network of thinktanks, academics, campaigning and community organisations are now “rethinking capitalism” in pursuit of a society fit for the future.Here at IPPR we are working on everything from new approaches to macroeconomic policy to the proper taxation of wealth, from proposals for a “digital commons” to devolved economic governance, from increasing worker ownership to a new framework for environmental policy. Continue reading...

Shares down by almost a fifth as number of UK property sales fall and surveyors report fewer inquiresShares in the UK’s largest estate agent, Countrywide, have tumbled by nearly a fifth after the group issued its second profit warning in three months amid a stalled property market.Countrywide, whose high street brands include Hamptons, Bairstow Eves, Taylors and Gascoigne-Pees, said it had had a disappointing last three months, especially in London and the south-east, with full-year revenues down £65m on a year earlier. It warned that 2017 profits would fall short of forecasts and be 22% below those for 2016. Its shares closed on Thursday down 18.6% at 110p.Related: Countrywide profit warning; stamp duty cut fails to help first-time buyers - business live Continue reading...

Office for National Statistics’ family spending report shows household spending increase but much is fuelled by debtThere is little for the average household to cheer these days as inflation crushes paltry earnings increases. Inflation is running at 3% while wage rises can manage no more than 2.5%. Worse for the average household, the banks are beginning to turn off the lending taps that have allowed them to boost their incomes with cheap debt.Things were better in the year to April 2017, according to the number crunchers at the Office for National Statistics, who have lifted the lid on Britain’s spending habits in their annual family spending report.

Lloyds, HSBC and RBS all promise to help small businesses, as the government sets up a Carillion task force

Taskforce of high street banks, trade bodies and businesses draw up measures to limit job losses as unions press government to actHigh street banks have made more than £225m available to help businesses put at risk by the failure of Carillion, while companies have offered to take on staff who were working for the firm when it collapsed into receivership.A taskforce of banks, businesses and construction industry trade bodies met with the business secretary on Thursday to discuss ways to contain the impact of Carillion’s collapse on jobs and the wider economy. Continue reading...

Household expenditure on cars, holidays and pets drives recovery but signs emerge of a slowdownSpending by British households has returned to its pre-financial crisis levels in real terms, driven by purchases of cars and spending by older consumers on package holidays and pets.Figures from the Office for National Statistics showed average weekly spending in the UK rose to £554.20 in the financial year ending March 2017, an increase from £533 the previous year. Transport and recreation were the two categories where expenditure increased the most, rising by about £5 on average per week.Inflation is when prices rise. Deflation is the opposite – price decreases over time – but inflation is far more common.Related: UK’s richest 10% spend more on wine per week than the poorest on waterRelated: The economics of retirement: the power of pensioner spending Continue reading...

Chain warns of subdued demand as shoppers shun high street and artisan rivals perk upBritain’s biggest coffee shop chain, Costa Coffee, has suffered a fall in sales at its high street stores and warned consumer demand would remain “subdued”.

The claim that Stoke-on-Trent is better off under the Tories is rejected by Cllr Mohammed Pervez and the Labour peer Jeremy BeechamI think the Stoke-on-Trent South MP Jack Brereton was rather misleading in his dig at the Guardian (Letters, 15 January) for not mentioning that the recent so-called turnaround in the city was down to his Tory party locally and nationally. He neglected to mention that he was the cabinet member who oversaw deep cuts to Stoke-on-Trent’s local services, including our children’s centres, social care and homelessness support. It is the current Conservative administration that has wasted tens of millions of pounds of council reserves to the detriment of the city’s long-term financial security.Much of what Mr Brereton cited as improvements to the city are the legacy of Labour’s actions in power, including the creation of the central business district and cultural quarter, the district heating network, the relocation of Staffordshire University and the drive for better housing and jobs in the city. Continue reading...

Official Receiver says vast majority of companies who used Carillion’s services want to keep paying ‘in the interim’

Since the 2011 uprising, the IMF – backed by the G8 – has imposed economic reforms on Tunisia, at a cost to ordinary peopleTunisia has been facing protests across the country at price and tax rises since 3 January – the anniversary of the “bread riots” which occurred in 1984 under the Habib Bourguiba regime. As with the current unrest, that uprising was triggered by an intervention into the country’s affairs by international financial institutions, and the subsequent shock to the livelihoods of Tunisians – specifically, an increase in bread and grain prices following the adoption of an IMF plan.Related: The Guardian view on Tunisia unrest: riots redux? | Editorial Continue reading...

EU ruling follows claims G30 group has too much influence with ECB president as memberThe president of the European Central Bank has been told by the EU’s watchdog he should drop his membership of a secretive club of corporate bankers, after claims the group had been given an inside seat from which it could influence key policies.Following a year-long investigation, Mario Draghi was informed on Wednesday by the European ombudsman, Emily O’Reilly, that his close relationship with the Washington-based G30 group threatened the reputation of the bank, despite his assurances to the contrary. Continue reading...

Thousands of businesses across sectors need to find ways to cut costs to survive beyond 12 months, warns insolvency specialistAlmost half a million UK businesses have started 2018 in significant financial distress, according to insolvency specialists.In its latest “red flag alert”, Begbies Traynor said firms across all UK regions and sectors were feeling the repercussions of higher inflation, rising interest rates, growing business uncertainty, and weaker consumer spending. Continue reading...

What to do when our economy benefits only the few, but politicians seem powerless to change it? This new series, called the Alternatives, follows communities who are working out their own answersThis is the age of the zombie. The undead maraud around our popular culture. Stick on the telly, and they’re attacking Jon Snow in Game of Thrones. At the cinema, reanimated carcasses lurch through everything from Resident Evil to World War Z. The headlines might burst with blundering boastful strongmen, but our nightmares are full of blank-eyed walking corpses.Unthinking, unquestioning, neither alive nor dead, the zombie is horrific. It is also us.What is austerity?Related: A Labour council attacking its own people? This is regeneration gone bad | Aditya ChakraborttyThe nurse at the food bank, the council employee in a homeless shelter: these political actors are new Continue reading...

Government under pressure over handling of Carillion’s collapse, as suppliers cut jobs and creditors face huge losses

Department asks high court for ‘direct review’ of ruling that temporarily blocks Trump administration from phasing out DacaThe Department of Justice said on Tuesday it is appealing against a federal judge’s ruling that temporarily blocked the Trump administration from phasing out the Obama-era program granting protections to young, undocumented immigrants – and asking the supreme court to intervene.

US share index rises 1,000 points in 12 days – but sceptics warn rise could be last hurrah before a crashThe Dow Jones Industrial Average has topped the 26,000 mark for the first time, a new landmark in the Wall Street stock market boom that has gathered pace since the new year.The leading index of US shares has risen 1,000 points in just 12 days – and six stock market trading sessions, given that Wall Street was closed for Martin Luther King Jr Day on Monday – fuelled by an upswing in the global economy and the prospect of bumper company earnings thanks to Donald Trump’s corporate tax cuts.Related: 'Melt-up' coinage could signal last hurrah for US stock market Continue reading...

Squeeze on households eases slightly as effects of weak pound start to waneThe squeeze on British household budgets showed signs of easing in December as the rate of inflation fell for the first time in six months, helped by lower airfare costs and a fall in the price of games and toys.The consumer price index fell to 3% last month from a five-year high of 3.1% in November, raising the prospect that inflation may have peaked, easing some of the pressure on UK consumers. Economists had expected the rate to moderate as the effects from the fall in sterling since the Brexit vote – which pushed up the cost of importing food and fuel – begin to wash out of the system.Inflation is when prices rise. Deflation is the opposite – price decreases over time – but inflation is far more common. Continue reading...

Given the chance to think on each others’ views, we become more tolerant: a citizens’ assembly is how to fight illiberalismThere’s a chasm between the will of the British people as expressed in their 52% vote for Brexit and their considered will. It turns out that ordinary Britons deliberating with their peers think things through, “unspinning” much of the surrounding media hysteria.In late 2017, a group of universities selected 50 people by lot to be representative of ordinary Britons in a “citizens’ assembly”. Between the referendum and the end of two weekends spent deliberating on Brexit, a group exemplifying the referendum’s 52:48 Brexit vote had swung to 40:60 against.The tragedy of Brexit doesn’t concern Britain’s economy but rather its democracyA hard Brexit would take Britain out of the EU’s single market and customs union and ends its obligations to respect the four freedoms, make big EU budget payments and accept the jurisdiction of the ECJ: what Brexiters mean by “taking back control” of Britain’s borders, laws and money. It would mean a return of trade tariffs, depending on what (if any) FTA was agreed. See our full Brexit phrasebook.Related: Citizens UK makes Westminster’s politicians face power of the people Continue reading...

Poorest households are spending 25% of monthly income servicing debts as UK borrowing rocketsOne in four of Britain’s poorest households are falling behind with debt payments or spending more than a quarter of their monthly income on repayments, according to a study.The latest evidence of mounting debt problems for some of the most vulnerable in society is shown in a report by the Institute for Fiscal Studies, on behalf of the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, at a time when borrowing on credit cards, loans and car finance deals returns to levels unseen since before the 2008 financial crisis.Related: Personal debt: how you can shred your borrowing this year Continue reading...

Labour leader says Carillion crisis is a ‘watershed moment’ for UK public services, as government ministers discuss their next step

Silvana Tenreyro, a member of the bank’s monetary policy committee, said firms will delay investment due to uncertaintyThe uncertainty caused by Brexit is deterring companies from investing and hampering Britain’s ability to close its productivity gap with other leading developed countries, a Bank of England policymaker has warned.Silvana Tenreyro, one of the nine members of Threadneedle Street’s monetary policy committee (MPC), which sets UK interest rates, said 75% of the decrease in growth of output per worker since the financial crisis a decade ago was due to manufacturing and financial services, but that a period of catch-up was feasible.Productivity is an economic measure of the efficiency of a workforce. It typically measures the level of output per hour of work, or per worker. Continue reading...

Trading bloc would suffer more in lost output than thought, although lack of trade deal would cost UK around £125bnA no-deal Brexit would cost the remaining 27 EU nations €112bn (£99.5bn) in lost economic output, according to research by a UK-based thinktank.Although the UK would still be the biggest loser from crashing out of the EU single market and customs union without a new trade deal – with a cost to the economy of £125bn by 2020 – the EU would also suffer a bigger economic hit than previously thought by the end of the decade, according to the consultancy Oxford Economics.A hard Brexit would take Britain out of the EU’s single market and customs union and ends its obligations to respect the four freedoms, make big EU budget payments and accept the jurisdiction of the ECJ: what Brexiters mean by “taking back control” of Britain’s borders, laws and money. It would mean a return of trade tariffs, depending on what (if any) FTA was agreed. See our full Brexit phrasebook. Continue reading...

Republican tax cut will widen the trade and current-account deficits, the opposite of what was promisedUS President Donald Trump and congressional Republican allies have succeeded in passing their big tax legislation. While it lacks many of the desirable attributes of true tax reform, it amounts to a success for Trump, who failed to deliver any other major piece of legislation during the first year of his administration. But what will it mean for Trump’s other major promise, to cut the US trade deficit?

Nicola Sturgeon says updated analysis strengthens case for UK staying in EU single marketScotland’s economy faces losing up to £16bn a year as a result of leaving the EU, according to a Scottish government forecast.The updated analysis warns that a hard Brexit, in which the UK falls back on World Trade Organisation rules, would cost Scotland up to £12.7bn and cause real household incomes to fall by 9.6%, or £2,263 per head. Continue reading...

Bargains were snatched from the shoppers who needed them in order to make bigger profits from people with fatter wallets. It was the trickle-up effect at work – much like our system nowI once had a stall in the Portobello Road market, when it still had a cheap, rubbishy end where you could find thrilling bargains. My stall was at this fascinating, vibrant end, between a book stall and a bric-a-brac stall, on a pavement forecourt facing the public lavatories.Every Saturday, the bookseller, who also sold cinema ephemera, would leave me in charge and go down to the swanky part of the market, which was crammed with tourists. There he would find his own stock, which dealers had snapped up from his stall early in the morning, to sell at a staggering profit on their own stalls, 10 minutes’ walk away. Continue reading...