Economics | The Guardian

The chancellor should change course but with no majority, no money and no productivity growth there’s no hope of thatPhilip Hammond did not get his nickname of “Spreadsheet Phil” for nothing. The chancellor is a cautious man, who thinks that tackling Britain’s productivity challenge is a better use of his time than trying to wrongfoot his opposite number, John McDonnell, with political gimmicks.Hammond’s instinct in the run-up to his second budget has been to hunker down, to hide himself away in the Treasury and send out messages that he simply doesn’t have the money to bail the government out of its current troubles.

Past generations of British politicians proved equal to the crises that faced them. This time, there is a strong whiff of panic in the corridors of powerTo say that the lunatics have taken over the asylum would doubtless be termed politically incorrect. But the uncomfortable truth is that a bunch of ideological Brexit clowns have perpetrated a coup on the British government and the majority of the British people.Seldom – or, to be more precise, never – in half a century of covering British economics have I encountered such a failure of leadership at a time of crisis. We came close to the abyss in 1976 but were saved by Jim Callaghan, the prime minister, and Denis Healey, the chancellor. On that occasion, after fraught talks, the two held the cabinet together and negotiated a loan from the International Monetary Fund which restored our credibility in the markets. Continue reading...

The online giant will have a real store in London for Black Friday. In this topsy-turvy retail world, innovation is now a necessityBlack Friday 2017: where to find the best UK dealsOn London’s Oxford Street a row of glittering snowflakes guides shoppers along the golden mile of fashion and department stores. The 750,000 lights floating above Selfridges, John Lewis and Debenhams are a decades-old tradition but events like Black Friday have changed Christmas shopping for ever.The UK high street has just experienced something of a watershed, what some have called its “Tesla moment”. Online fashion website Asos overtook Marks & Spencer in market value terms for the first time despite not having a single store to its name. The comparison with the automotive industry comes because electric carmaker Tesla moved ahead of the 114-year-old Ford Motor Company in market value earlier this year.Related: Business Today: sign up for a morning shot of financial news Continue reading...

No bespoke trade deal can be as good as the single market, says Sir Martin DonnellyThere is no trade deal on offer from the European Union that will stop Britain taking a major economic hit after Brexit, the government’s former top trade official has warned.In a direct warning to MPs, Sir Martin Donnelly, the chief civil servant in Liam Fox’s Department for International Trade until earlier this year, states that leaving the single market in favour of negotiating a long-winded, Canada-style trade deal will “damage UK competitiveness and leave us with less investment, lower living standards and long queues at the border”.Related: We shouldn’t even be contemplating leaving the single market Continue reading...

Guardian readers on the economic divisions facing BritainBefore anyone leaps with joy at the commercial prospects of the Oxford-Cambridge sprawl belt (Hammond urged to invest £7bn in transport links for new towns, 17 November), they should read Larry Elliott’s bleak exposition of the two nations we have become (No wonder the north is angry. Here’s a plan to bridge the bitter Brexit divide, 17 November). It’s curious how the greenfield sprawl lobby has always been obsessed with the northern home counties and south-east Midlands. Andrew Adonis’s enthusiasm for the Oxford-Cambridge axis is only the latest chapter in a saga stretching back to Letchworth Garden City in Edwardian times.Low-density greenfield development is highly profitable for developers and really good at increasing traffic and greenhouse gas emissions. It’s also proved good at dragging wealth out of places that desperately need it to regions which lack the housing to support population growth. Backing economic “winners” just perpetuates an endless spiral of housebuilding, roadbuilding and destruction of our precious farmland. It also exacerbates the dangerous divide between rich and poor regions.

The president of the European Central Bank warned in a speech in Frankfurt that although the eurozone economy was ‘robust’, recovery was still heavily reliant on stimulus from the European Central Bank

Building society warns ‘sluggish’ economy, Brexit uncertainty, weak wage increases and rising inflation are hurting customers’ financesHousehold finances are under worsening pressure, according to Nationwide building society, which reported a fall in profits and warned of tougher trading conditions ahead.Total mortgage lending slipped from £17.5bn to £16.7bn, largely because of a steep decline in loans for buy-to-let following the tax changes. But as lending for landlords has fallen, loans granted to first-time buyers have surged.Related: Nationwide sounds note of caution over lending in run-up to Brexit Continue reading...

The government’s own figures have proved what has been obvious since 2010: minorities, women and disabled people are the ones being hit the hardestIf the point of government is to make the already disadvantaged worse off, then the Conservatives have used the last seven years in power exceptionally well. Today the Equality and Human Rights Commission released a major report calculating the impact austerity is having on Britain – painstakingly calculating the impact that changes to all tax, social security and public spending since 2010 will have on each of us by 2022.Black households (as the report puts it) will lose 5% of income – more than double the loss for white householdsRelated: Women and disabled people hit hardest by years of austerity, report confirms Continue reading...

Equalities watchdog says Tory tax and benefit reforms over seven years will slash incomes of poorest by 10%, while richest only lose 1%Disabled people, single parents and women have been among the biggest losers under seven years of austerity, according to a report by the equalities watchdog.While the poorest tenth of households will on average lose about 10% of their income by 2022 – equivalent to £1 in every £8 of net income – the richest will lose just 1%, or about £1 in every £250 of net income, the study carried out for the Equality and Human Rights Commission (EHRC) reveals.Related: New universal credit claimants 'will get no money before Christmas' Continue reading...

Most purchases in UK likely to be made online and spread over the week with big bargains less common as retailers battle rising costs and inflationBritish shoppers are expected to spend £10.1bn in the week of Black Friday, nearly 4% higher than last year as more retailers take part in the US-inspired promotional day.But the bargain fever seen in earlier years is thought unlikely to materialise as most activity will be online with experts warning that the discounts are likely to be less exciting on the day, which falls on 24 November this year.Related: Black Friday 2017: where to get the best UK deals Continue reading...

UK retail sales fell for the first time in October, year-on-year, since 2013, despite stronger-than-expected growth over the month

The economist and author of Globalisation and its Discontents talks to the Guardian's Larry Elliott about why he considers Donald Trump unfit to be US president. He says stagnant incomes, the opioid crisis and falling life expectancies all pointed towards a political problem in the US but no one imagined it leading to a Trump presidency Continue reading...

The Nobel prize-winning economist on the threat from the US president, fairer globalisation – and whether Bernie Sanders would have wonHarry Truman once demanded to be given one-handed economists because he became so frustrated with his advisers meeting every demand for answers with “on the one hand, on the other hand”.Truman would have liked Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel prize-winning economist who worked for a later Democratic president, Bill Clinton, and who does not mince words when talking about the current incumbent of the White House, Donald Trump.Related: Business Today: sign up for a morning shot of financial newsA couple of things are most disturbing – the attack on the press and the attack on the foundations of knowledgeWe saved the banks, we saved the bankers and we saved the shareholders; we didn’t do much for homeownersWe are dealing with countries all over the world ... Trump’s word is not good Continue reading...

The vultures are circling above Philip Hammond, and one of them is Gove-shaped. But with the right buzzwords, any of us could become chancellorWe’ve all done it. You’re in a job interview, or are trying to send a message to the boss that you are ready for a big step-up. You start using the words that the tall people in suits use. They sound good. They lend you authority – you hope. They make you come across like someone who is ready to play in “the big leagues”– which is precisely the sort of phrase that the tall people in suits use.Someone in the cabinet has got cross with Michael Gove for doing just that, using “long, economicky words” to send a message that he is ready to take over from Philip Hammond should next week’s budget – God forbid – not be a complete triumph.Related: Michael Gove and Boris Johnson: how did their friendship come out of the deep freeze?Related: End austerity in public services, John McDonnell tells chancellor Continue reading...

Rising food prices and economic uncertainty are making shoppers cautious about spending, say analystsRocketing food inflation and uncertainty about the outlook for the UK economy have sent retail sales tumbling to their first year-on-year fall since 2013.Food prices, which were 3.5% higher than a year earlier, helped push the volume of goods bought in shops and online down by 0.3% from October 2016.Related: Business Today: sign up for a morning shot of financial news Continue reading...

Worker output in London and satellite cities far outweighs that in places such as Stoke and Doncaster, says Centre for Cities thinktankBritain’s economy would be more than £200bn bigger if all cities were as productive as those in London and the south-east, research from a thinktank has shown.A report by the Centre for Cities revealed that the capital and its satellite cities were as productive as anywhere in Europe and that the UK’s recent weak productivity record was the result of a huge performance gap with other parts of the country.Related: How UK cities compare for population, jobs, new businesses and house prices Continue reading...

Central bank warns against setting up ‘empty shell’ operations in euro area without adequate staff

Ending life-sapping excessive hours was a pioneering demand for the labour movement. For the sake of our health and the economy we need to revisit itImagine there was a single policy that would slash unemployment and underemployment, tackle health conditions ranging from mental distress to high blood pressure, increase productivity, help the environment, improve family lives, encourage men to do more household tasks, and make people happier. It sounds fantastical, but it exists, and it’s overdue: the introduction of a four-day week.The liberation of workers from excessive work was one of the pioneering demands of the labour movement. From the ashes of the civil war, American trade unionism rallied behind an eight-hour day, “a movement which ran with express speed from the Atlantic to the Pacific, from New England to California”, as Karl Marx put it. In 1890 hundreds of thousands thronged into Hyde Park in a historic protest for the same demand. It is a cause that urgently needs reclaiming.Related: The machine age is upon us. We must not let it grind society to pieces | Chuka UmunnaRelated: CitySprint accused of 'making a mockery' of employment rights Continue reading...

One day’s headlines shows how the UK’s struggling public services are desperate for funding, writes Linda Rhead. Surely, she says, it is connected to the tax-avoidance scandal in the same edition. While Richard Carter says Theresa May’s failure to tackle tax avoidance could make her look complicitGuardian 15 November: page 4, Squeezed NHS must close dozens of services; page 5, Armed forces no longer fit for purpose, former top brass warn; page 8, Poorest squeezed as food price inflation hits four-year high; page 10, Police poised to ignore minor crimes, MPs told; page 16, Eating disorder patients waiting months for care. Five articles in Wednesday’s Guardian outline the catastrophic consequences of the Tory government’s austerity policy, on the NHS, the armed services, the poorest families and the police. In Monday’s edition, 5,000 headteachers wrote asking for relief from more damaging cuts to education. What does the media have to do to get the prime minister and the chancellor to see how wrong these policies are? Maybe the “Plea to halt ‘industrial scale’ tax avoidance” (page 1, 15 November) could offer a hint at a possible alternative.

Central bank boss Mario Draghi gets tough on financial institutions’ risk management plans

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ONS says number of people unemployed also dropped in the three months to September, by 59,000 to 1.425 millionSigns that Britain’s long employment boom has come to an end emerged on Wednesday as official figures showed a drop in the number of people in work, a fall in full-time employment and a decline in the number of job vacancies.After a record-breaking run, the The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported the first fall in employment since the immediate aftermath of last year’s Brexit vote.Related: UK real wage squeeze continues as employment total falls - business live Continue reading...

Motor industry says threatened new tariffs could add £1,500 to price of an imported car, and make exports more expensive tooThe devastating impact of a hard Brexit on the UK car industry was laid bare on Tuesday to MPs, who were told every 15 minutes of customs delays would cost some manufacturers up to £850,000 a year.Presenting the industry’s most detailed evidence yet to the business select committee, Honda UK said it relied on 350 trucks a day arriving from Europe to keep its giant Swindon factory operating, with just an hour’s worth of parts being held on the production line.Related: Brexit: failure to update customs system could be 'catastrophic'Related: EU business leaders tell PM: agree Brexit deal or face collapse in confidence Continue reading...

Official figures show prices were up by 4.2% last month on 12 months earlier, the highest level in four yearsBig increases in the price of fish, fats and vegetables have driven food price inflation to the highest level in more than four years.New data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows food prices last month were up by 4.2% on 12 months earlier, a sharp increase on the 0.6% that food inflation was running at just a year ago. The October increase is the highest since 2013 and prompted the British Retail Consortium (BRC) to warn that consumers face the prospect of an expensive Christmas dinner this year.Related: 'Butter has gone up by 40%': readers on rising UK food pricesInflation is when prices rise. Deflation is the opposite – price decreases over time – but inflation is far more common.Related: Cost of living squeeze continues as UK inflation sticks at five-year high - business live Continue reading...

Those who voted for Brexit wanted migration to be managed, say Jonathon Porritt and Colin Hines. But Eric Goodyer voted remain to keep his freedom to work, live and retire anywhere in Europe. Plus John Hall says the benefits system must be reorientedWhat those who want to remain in a reformed EU that lessens people’s insecurity must grasp is that Brexit voters don’t want an apology, they want policies to deal with their desire for managed migration. What is still inadequately understood is that the one upside of the grim rise of the extreme right across Europe since the referendum has been the increasing discussions in the EU about adapting free movement of people with measures to manage migration.In our new report, The Progressive Case for Taking Control of EU Immigration – and Avoiding Brexit in the Process, on how Brexit can be reversed if progressives actively support these trends, we speculate that if Keir Starmer (on behalf of Jeremy Corbyn), Vince Cable and Caroline Lucas shared this analysis, they would prioritise seeking authentic agreement across the EU to properly acknowledge EU citizens’ concerns about migration. This would involve highlighting existing and proposing new measures to help “manage” migration. Then Brexit could be reversed.

As inflation sticks at a five-year high of 3%, readers share their experiences of how they are coping with the squeezeI shop at Lidl and Asda and consider myself a savvy shopper on a budget, as I’m on minimum wage. Butter has gone up by 40%, but is a little luxury I do not want to give up. Meat has increased so much that I rarely buy it and make do with very cheap chicken or pork shoulder – lamb and beef joints are out of the question, so I use minced beef and burgers from Lidl. I have entirely changed the way we eat – we have soup a lot for our main meal, for example – and make do with less, or change meals to use jars of ready-made pasta sauce for 52p and cheap spaghetti for 20p at the end of the month. On the plus side, nothing is wasted and we are very inventive, but I have the time and skills at this time of my life, but I worry about the younger people who are time and skill short. We spend a lot on existing, so there is nothing left for anything nice.

The pound’s weakness since the Brexit vote pushed consumer prices up by 3% in the last year, the joint-highest since early 2012

Pro-Brexit backbencher says dividend only possible with policy of free trade, reduced regulation and lower taxesThe UK economy could enjoy a post-Brexit financial dividend of £135bn in the five years after its departure from the EU, Jacob Rees-Mogg has said, an opinion that attracted a direct if brief endorsement from the Department for International Trade.At a speech in London, the leading pro-Brexit backbencher lambasted what he called the “false assumptions” of Philip Hammond’s Treasury before next week’s budget, insisting that leaving the EU would provide a huge economic boost. Continue reading...

Our economy is sick – and with next week’s budget, May and Hammond look sure to make it sickerThe obituary for this government was published within days of its birth. Theresa May was a “dead woman walking”, proclaimed former cabinet colleague George Osborne. Thus was a sniggering bully transformed into an acerbic prophet. Who now dares argue with that verdict? Two senior ministers out within a week, two more barely clinging on to their jobs, and an administration that makes no progress, but merely lurches from disaster to catastrophe.And so begins the Great Unravelling of the oldest political party in Europe, arguably the world. It leads the BBC bulletins. For the commentariat, it is their meat and drink and their tiramisu.Austerity is now the thudding drumbeat behind every ministerial misstepRelated: Theresa May’s position is unsustainable, yet she still can’t see it | Matthew d’Ancona Continue reading...

Neoliberalism and its usual prescriptions – always more markets, always less government – are in fact a perversion of mainstream economics. By Dani RodrikAs even its harshest critics concede, neoliberalism is hard to pin down. In broad terms, it denotes a preference for markets over government, economic incentives over cultural norms, and private entrepreneurship over collective action. It has been used to describe a wide range of phenomena – from Augusto Pinochet to Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan, from the Clinton Democrats and the UK’s New Labour to the economic opening in China and the reform of the welfare state in Sweden.The term is used as a catchall for anything that smacks of deregulation, liberalisation, privatisation or fiscal austerity. Today it is routinely reviled as a shorthand for the ideas and practices that have produced growing economic insecurity and inequality, led to the loss of our political values and ideals, and even precipitated our current populist backlash.Related: Globalisation: the rise and fall of an idea that swept the world Continue reading...

Shadow chancellor John McDonnell to say ‘overwhelming challenge of climate change’ must be addressed from very centre of governmentThe risk posed by climate change would be factored into projections from the government’s independent economic forecaster if Labour took office, the shadow chancellor will announce on Tuesday.

Average pay packet will be more than £20 lower than when financial crisis started in 2007, the Resolution Foundation report saysThe average pay packet in Britain in five years’ time will still be more than £20 lower than it was before the start of the financial crisis as the biggest squeeze on wages since the end of the Napoleonic Wars extends well into a second decade, a leading thinktank has warned.The Resolution Foundation said that the downgrade to Britain’s future productivity performance expected in next week’s budget would have a negative impact on wage growth between now and 2022 and also limit the room for manoeuvre of the chancellor, Philip Hammond. Continue reading...

Investors spooked by rumours of revolt by Tory backbenchers and warning from IMF about UK crashing out of EU with no dealThe pound has come under pressure on international currency markets after investors were spooked by weekend rumours of a backbench revolt that could topple Theresa May’s government and add to the uncertainty surrounding Brexit talks.Sterling shed a cent against the US dollar, to below $1.31, and a similar amount against the euro to €1.122 on Monday as concerns about the stability of the government preyed on investors’ confidence in the outlook for the UK.Related: Business Today: sign up for a morning shot of financial news Continue reading...

Property website says new sellers being too optimistic by not discounting by more as overall market stalls and interest rates riseMore than a third of home owners trying to sell their house have been forced to reduce their asking price, with the number of price cuts at their highest level since 2012, according to Rightmove.Traditionally house sellers are often forced to cut asking prices in the pre-Christmas period but this year the nation appears to be holding a collective autumn sale, said the property website.Related: London falling? UK house price growth to halve with capital worst hit Continue reading...

Health of low-income households at risk as funding cuts slash support for replacing and repairing boilers, pressure group warnsNo gas boilers have been repaired since April under a government scheme intended to combat fuel poverty, as a result of spending cuts that risk leaving poorer Britons unprotected from the cold at home, according to a fuel poverty pressure group.National Energy Action (NEA), which obtained the figures from the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS), said the drop in official support via the energy company obligation (ECO) threatens the health of low-income households. Peter Smith, NEA’s director of policy, said: “This leaves thousands of people with existing medical conditions facing a winter without any effective space heating or hot water.”Related: Business Today: sign up for a morning shot of financial newsWe know the tragic consequences of not being able to afford to service, repair or replace unsafe gas heating appliances Continue reading...

The continent’s elites have to reject the notion that being ‘modern’ and ‘civilised’ means aping the westOne of the greatest ironies in the history of the collapse of any civilisation must be the initial interaction between Africans and Europeans. The Igbos in the east of Nigeria, for instance, initially saw the Europeans as madmen of strange appearance and ill-formed ideologies. On banking, the Igbos wondered how an adult in his right mind could hand over his possessions for others to keep for him. By the end of the 19th century, the “madman” had overturned their civilisation, and they had adopted his.The irony is especially relevant in these times when, given the relative failures of most former western colonies, there have been renewed calls for recolonialisation. In September, American professor Bruce Gilley wrote an essay arguing for a recolonialisation of some states, replicating colonial governance of the past “as far as possible” and even building new colonies from scratch.This has resulted in Africa being slowly emptied of its essence, and becoming a relicRelated: We’re all connected now, so why is the internet so white and western? | Mark Graham and Anasuya Sengupta Continue reading...

Data expected to show rising inflation, falling real pay despite record employment, and first annual drop in retail sales in almost five yearsThe chancellor, Philip Hammond, is to receive some crucial evidence about the health of the UK economy this week as he puts the finishing touches to one of the most difficult budgets in recent times.Official figures are expected to show the squeeze on household finances has intensified in recent weeks, as wage growth fails to keep pace with inflation despite low unemployment.Inflation is when prices rise. Deflation is the opposite – price decreases over time – but inflation is far more common. Continue reading...

More 70 years ago progressive policies reined in the robber barons, but today’s superrich face no foe in the White HouseAmerica’s role as the world’s economic superpower was established in the period between 1870 and the start of the first world war. The country boomed, immigrants arrived in their millions and the rich coined it in. Even now the names are familiar: John D Rockefeller; Andrew Carnegie; the Vanderbilt family. They called it the Gilded Age.

Credit Suisse’s ‘wealth’ report will show how higher prices and rising inflation are hitting ordinary Brits – and make fast-growing differences in wealth even starkerWhile consumers may be able to tell from the cost of their weekly shop that the Brexit referendum has made life more expensive, this week we will get some indication of how the wealth of the nation as a whole has fared since the vote last year.Credit Suisse is due to release its annual global wealth report, containing details of how the average household has withstood a year of currency drops and inflation rises. Last year the report revealed that £1.2bn had been wiped off the wealth of the UK after the vote, but that Britain remained a very attractive place for ultra-high net worth individuals, beaten only by the US and China. Continue reading...

More than 40% of regional venues forced to cut opening hours due to budgetsThe legacy of 1066 and all that means that Hastings will forever be identified with the pivotal battle between Normans and Anglo-Saxons. Yet the East Sussex seaside town now faces a fight to preserve access to the study of its role in English history.Two years ago the Old Town Hall Museum of Local History, one of two museums run by the borough council, closed down for good. The remaining Hastings Museum and Art Gallery was left to promote the heritage of one of the most significant locations in the country.Related: Coalpit pin-ups: Leeds museum pays tribute to queens of industrial age Continue reading...

The value of cryptocurrencies is rising fast. But is it sustainable? And how does it work, anyway? These questions, and many more, answered…The money has become too much to ignore and so bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are back in the news. You may have heard about Ethereum, a cryptocurrency that has risen in value by more than 2,500% over the course of 2017. Or maybe you’ve heard about one of the many smaller cryptocurrencies that raised hundreds of millions of dollars in the first few days they were on sale, during their “initial coin offering”. Or you’ve just spotted that bitcoin, which made headlines in 2013 for hitting a high of $200, is now worth nearly $7,000 (£5,250), making a lot of people very rich in the process.Are these cryptocurrencies simply speculative bubbles or will they actually transform our financial system? It’s time to answer a few common questions about this new technology – and assess whether a lot of people have just pulled off the investment of their lifetime or made a huge mistake. Continue reading...

Any bid Philip Hammond makes to raise money for the exchequer is shouted down by backbenchers. The next budget will see him scrabbling for small changePhilip Hammond is trapped in a prison cell of his party’s making. On one side, the chancellor is hemmed in by Tory MPs ready to veto almost any tax-raising measure that could give him some room for manoeuvre. On another there are his own and the Treasury’s conservative rules about what to do about the annual spending deficit, which they agree must drop to zero within the next 10 years.Hammond is also cramped by the Treasury’s financial forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility, which shadows his every move with deliberately conservative predictions about Britain’s economic health. And finally, the chill wind that has blown the cell door shut is the ongoing uncertainty over the Brexit negotiations.The OBR forecast will rob him of at least half of the £26bn he allowed himself to offset the effects of Brexit Continue reading...

Uber drivers must be treated as workers, judge rules, meaning they qualify for minimum wage and holiday pay

US president’s tirade against predatory economic policies comes just hours after he heaped praise on ChinaDonald Trump has abruptly ended the diplomatic streak he displayed on his 12-day tour of Asia by launching a tirade against “violations, cheating or economic aggression” in the region, just hours after heaping lavish praise on China.

Compromising independence to enhance political accountability would be like throwing the baby out with the bathwater. They must stay freeOn 11 November 1997, the Bank of England took a big step towards independence, courtesy of the second reading in the House of Commons of a bill amending the Bank Act of 1946. The bill gave legislative affirmation to the decision, taken by the then-chancellor of the exchequer, Gordon Brown, to free central bank operations from governmental control. This was a landmark event for an institution that had been under the yoke of government for a half-century. It symbolised how the need for central bank independence had become conventional wisdom.Now, however, this wisdom is being questioned, and not just in the UK. So long as inflation was the real and present danger, it made sense to delegate monetary policy to conservative central bankers insulated from pressure to finance government budget deficits. Today, in contrast, the problem is the opposite, namely the inability of central banks to raise inflation to target levels.

Statistics also show better trade performance, but construction has officially fallen into recessionA weaker pound and a pick up in the global economy helped deliver the fifth straight monthly rise in UK factory output in September, providing a much-needed boost to Philip Hammond ahead of his budget later this month.After a bruising period for the government, the improved performance by manufacturing will provide the chancellor with tentative evidence that the economy is edging out of the period of slow growth which has persisted since the start of the year.Related: Shortage of factory workers starts to push up pay rates Continue reading...

Senior representatives to warn prime minister that firms will assume and act on worst case scenario if no transition deal is achieved soon

European Commission says Brexit uncertainty will hurt UK investment, but the rest of Europe is doing ‘significantly better than expected’

Brussels’ health check of member states sharply cuts UK forecast to 1.5% as eurozone enjoys best year since financial crisis of 2007The European commission enters key Brexit talks with the government with the eurozone economy in its best shape for a decade and activity in the UK weaker than expected six months ago.In its half-yearly health check, the commission sharply cut its forecast for UK growth this year and said it was likely to continue struggling in 2018 and 2019 even on the assumption that trade would not be disrupted by its departure from the EU.Related: EC slashes UK growth forecasts but sees best eurozone growth in a decade - business live Continue reading...

Research by IPPR North shows northern regions are more dependent on trade with EU than the south