Economics | The Guardian

Analysis from economic consultancy Oxera says cost to UK of new customs checks and ensuing delays could amount to more than £1bn a yearBritain will be hit by huge border delays, require vast lorry parks in the south-east, and suffer more than £1bn a year in economic damage, according to a stark economic analysis of the likely impact of customs checks after Brexit.Additional costs associated with potential motorway queues, extra customs staff and jobs lost as a result of companies relocating mean even that assessment is “extremely conservative”, a study by a leading economic consultancy warns.The border is a tax point, not a search point – with digital borders, customs clearance can be managed very quickly. Continue reading...

The founder of Alibaba, one of the world’s biggest online retailers, made the promise at a pre-inauguration meeting with Donald TrumpJack Ma was destined to live an ordinary life. He failed the Chinese university entrance exam several times before being accepted by the worst school in Hangzhou, and he was rejected from a dozen jobs – even selling chicken at KFC. Ma was ready to settle into a quiet life as an English teacher in eastern China, a position with few advancement prospects, when, during a trip to Seattle in 1995 working as a translator for a trade delegation, everything changed.A friend showed Ma the internet. He placed a toe on to the information superhighway with a one-word search – “beer” – and, two decades later, Ma is the richest man in Asia, head of an e-commerce and finance empire that includes Alibaba, one of the largest retailers in the world.Trump doesn't care about anything that's not huge. Ma figured 1 million is a good number to get his attentionGovernment findings showed that more than 70% of goods in a random sample on Taobao were fake Continue reading...

Emmanuel Macron new dawn may be a false one, but at least his country has some industry, a decent education system and no Brexit bindThe French economy is growing at the same pace the UK managed in 2016 and looks set to maintain it for the rest of the year. Growth for the second quarter was 0.5% and 1.8% over the past year. Meanwhile the UK is shuffling along in the slow lane, up just 0.3% between April and June.Does the reversal of fortunes tell us that France has found its mojo while the UK has done worse than let its foot slip off the accelerator? Continue reading...

Harold Wilson was not a Europhile, but a clear-eyed realist. Jeremy Corbyn could learn much from the story of the 1975 referendumWhat have David Cameron (Tory prime minister, 2010-16), and Harold Wilson (Labour prime minister, 1964-70 and 1974-76) got in common?Answer: in order to keep their respective parties together, because they were split over “Europe”, each of them called a referendum. Wilson triumphed, and went down in history as a consummate politician, indeed statesman. Cameron failed lamentably, and his mishandling of this vital issue is sometimes described as the biggest prime ministerial disaster brought upon the nation since Lord North lost the American colonies. Continue reading...

The Bank of England has issued a notably strong warning about consumer debt. There is a real risk of a second bust less than a decade after the previous oneBritain is on a consumer credit binge. Over the past year, growth per head of population has increased by 1% while the amount consumers have racked up – on their credit cards, on car finance and in unsecured personal loans – has increased by 10%.This is a matter of concern for the Bank of England, and rightly so. As Alex Brazier, the Bank’s director in charge of financial stability, put it last week, we have seen this movie before – and it doesn’t have a happy ending. Continue reading...

In the Northamptonshire town, charities and council workers face the daily consequences of the rising spiral of borrowing sweeping across the UKCorby in Northamptonshire has taken on a few notable titles over the years. It has been dubbed “Little Scotland” to reflect the Scottish workers who flooded in during the last century for jobs in its now defunct steelworks. More recently, Corby emerged as the fastest-growing borough outside London, its population now swelled by EU migrants and young workers commuting to London.Last week, the East Midlands town had the dubious honour of topping a new list. Amid the latest warnings around Britons’ growing reliance on borrowing, Corby was named the personal loans capital of Britain. Continue reading...

All the day’s economic and financial news, as new growth reports show that the UK is lagging behind advanced rivals in 2017

Key economic adviser, known for helping keep UK out of euro, replaces Charlotte Hogg and will have seat on MPCPhilip Hammond has filled the vacancy on the Bank of England’s interest rate setting committee left by the departure of Charlotte Hogg, following the appointment of Sir David Ramsden as the central bank’s new deputy governor.The chancellor said Sir David, who is the Treasury’s chief economic adviser, would take up the role as deputy governor of markets and banking, making him Threadneedle Street’s eyes and ears on the banking sector while also giving him a position on the nine-strong monetary policy committee (MPC). Continue reading...

It doesn’t matter how slick the messaging or how outrageous the claims by the Liberals, reality has a habit of thumping discourse every timeMy colleague, Greg Jericho, is dead right. Bill Shorten’s inequality pitch sure has “rustled the jimmies” of Australia’s conservatives. It should. When the facts are in, and the facts are bad, they can be very frightening.The facts in this instance are twofold.Related: Bill Shorten's inequality pitch has rustled the jimmies of conservatives | Greg JerichoRelated: Wage fraud will continue until politicians stop it. They can – but will they? | Josh Bornstein Continue reading...

Readers respond to Britain’s latest clean air plan and the ban on all new petrol and diesel cars and vans from 2040So, the government is committed to banning all diesel and petrol cars by 2040 (Report, 26 July). Has it considered the wider impacts?Power stations will face huge peak-time demand when drivers charge vehicles overnight. Can they cope? Will we face increased electricity charges? Continue reading...

Analysis from the Centre for Cities thinktank finds urban areas are likely be hit hardest by the increased trade barriers under both hard and soft BrexitsNew research examining for the first time the potential impact of Brexit on cities and towns has found Aberdeen could be the hardest hit by higher trade costs with the European Union, though no British city will escape its effects.The analysis by the Centre for Cities thinktank predicted that in the decade following the implementation of new trade agreements with the EU, every local authority area would be negatively affected.Related: Can post-Brexit London survive as Europe's cultural and financial capital? Continue reading...

Dollar slides after US Federal Reserve adopts more cautious tone on inflation outlook3.16pm BSTWith this, we are closing the blog for today. Good-bye and thank you for all your great comments. We’ll be back tomorrow.2.42pm BSTWall Street has got off to flying start: US stocks have risen to fresh record highs boosted by a flurry of strong company results.The Dow Jones industrial average rose nearly 70 points, or 0.4%, to 21778.96 while the S&P 500 advanced nearly 4 points, or 0.15%, to 2481.73. and the Nasdaq climbed 33 points, or 0.5%, to 6455.67.1.48pm BSTInvestors are breathing a sigh of relief after US durable goods data showed a better than expected 6.5% gain in orders in June, says Dennis de Jong, managing director at online broker UFX.com.A downbeat assessment on current inflation levels at yesterday’s Fed Reserve meeting had cast further uncertainty over the next interest rate, although today’s numbers suggest the US economy remains in good health.”The greenback could claw back some of yesterday’s losses against major European counterparts.1.36pm BSTPhillip Hammond has found a new Bank of England deputy governor to replace the disgraced Charlotte Hogg from within his own Treasury ranks.The chancellor has appointed the Treasury’s chief economic adviser, Sir David Ramsden to replace Hogg, who resigned earlier this year after failing to disclose that her brother was a senior executive at Barclays – a bank she would have regulated.12.10pm BSTThe world’s oil consumption could peak as early as the late 2020s as electric cars become more popular, says Royal Dutch Shell boss Ben van Beurden.But he added that oil would still be needed for several more decades, arguing that it will remain the main fuel used in planes, ships and heavy trucks.Even if the UK, France and the western world in general will all go to 100% electric vehicles, that would be great, but that wouldn’t be enough... We still have less advanced economies that cannot do that switch.11.52am BSTFrance has decided to nationalise the STX France shipyard, marking president Emmanuel Macron’s first major industrial policy decision, Reuters is reporting, citing Le Monde.The French government has been in an ownership standoff with Italy over the shipyard in Saint-Nazaire, north-western France. Reuters says:As France’s most pro-business leader in decades, few would have predicted the former investment banker’s first big move in the corporate sector to be a nationalisation.However, his action fits with the interventionist style of other postwar French leaders. It also crosses into the strategically sensitive defence sector where many national governments prefer to wield influence over ownership.11.16am BSTThe warm summer weather added a sizzle to Britain’s high streets this month: retail sales growth hit a three-month high as shoppers updated their summer wardrobes and bought more groceries, according to a monthly survey from the CBI employers’ group.Its retail sales balance rose to 22 in July from 12 in June, marking the highest reading since April. Expectations for next month were the strongest since last December, but the CBI warned it might not last.While retailers expect a similar pace of growth next month, the factors underpinning their sales growth are more shaky. Although employment is strong, real incomes are falling in the wake of higher inflation, and that’s expected to feed slower consumer spending growth ahead.”10.36am BSTTime for a quick market round-up. The FTSE 100 index has slipped into negative territory, trading down some 2 points at 7450.24.AstraZeneca’s woes are weighing on the index, as is the stronger pound, which is rising against the dollar after a more cautious statement from the US Federal Reserve last night suggested the next interest rate hike may be some way off, and sent the greenback sliding.10.02am BSTSky has also reported results this morning. Our media correspondent Mark Sweney reports:Sky is to hire 300 new technology staff to keep pace with rivals such as Netflix and Amazon as the broadcaster suffered a drop in full year profits and an increase in the rate of customers defecting to rivals.Related: Sky in tech battle with Netflix and Amazon as its profits fall10.01am BSTHere is our full story on Lloyds.Related: Lloyds takes fresh £1bn hit from PPI compensation claims9.57am BSTAstraZeneca boss Pascal Soriot is fielding numerous questions about whether he’s leaving to join Israel’s Teva. With a sigh, he saidAstraZeneca CEO: 'I will only make one comment: I'm not a quitter;" says about Mystic failure that immuno-oncology drugs take time to work9.39am BSTThe head of Britain’s financial markets watchdog just said that the UK will scrap the scandal-hit Libor interest rate benchmark from the end of 2021, when a substitute index should be in place.Libor is based on banks’ submissions of interest rates they believe they would be charged for borrowing money.9.25am BSTAstraZeneca boss Pascal Soriot is speaking on a conference call to journalists after the failure of a key lung cancer drug trial sent the company’s shares down more than 15%, to £43.24. The stock is heading for its worst day ever.Soriot, whilst saying that the company never comments on market speculation and rumours, has tried to squash the speculation triggered by a recent media report that he could jump ship and defect to Israel’s Teva, the world’s biggest generics drugmaker.I’m impressed with the progress we’ve made. I’m proud to be the CEO of this company and I’m looking forward to continuing on our journey ahead... I’m committed to delivering our strategy of returning to growth.8.47am BSTTravel company Thomas Cook as announced that it will start selling holidays in Tunisia again soon, after the UK changed its travel advice yesterday.Chief executive Peter Fankhauser told journalists:The foreign office came to the conclusion that it is again safe to travel. We didn’t have any programme for the winter so we are setting up a really good quality offer for Tunisia and this is going to take some time. I suppose that we are gong to start during the winter season, but more towards the spring.8.44am BSTThe Walkie Talkie skyscraper in the City has been sold to a Hong Kong oyster sauce maker for £1.28bn in a record-breaking deal.Land Securities has sold the building at 20 Fenchurch Street to Hong Kong-based Lee Kum Kee, a sauces company that specialises in oyster-flavoured sauce. It is the latest trophy building in London to be acquired by Asian investors, and marks the biggest sale ever of an office building in the UK.8.33am BSTGuardian Business has launched a daily email.Besides the key news headlines that you’d expect, there’s an at-a-glance agenda of the day’s main events, insightful opinion pieces and a quality feature to sink your teeth into each day.Related: Business Today: sign up for a morning shot of financial news8.26am BSTFoxtons, the London-based estate agent known for its fleet of Minis, has seen its shares tumble 7% to 89.75p, after a 64% plunge in first-half profits, as the London market cooled. Pretax profits dropped to £3.8m in the six months to June, from £10.5m a year earlier.Chief executive Nic Budden said:Our performance has been resilient in the context of a London property market that has been further impacted by unprecedented economic and political uncertainty. Whilst sales commissions in the second quarter as a whole were down 3% versus prior year, sales exchanges and our under offer pipeline weakened through June and the early part of July.8.14am BSTShares in AstraZeneca have crashed more than 16%, after the drugmaker suffered a major setback with the failure of an key lung cancer trial. The shares plunged as low as £42.71, wiping about £10bn off the company’s market value.The long-awaited initial results from the Mystic study found that a combination of two injectable immunotherapy drugs, durvalumab and tremelimumab, failed to help patients.7.57am BSTLet’s have a look at the company results.Lloyds Banking Group Lloyds has set aside another £700m to meet PPI claims, taking the PPI charge in its first half to £1bn. However it has also reported its biggest first-half profit in eight years – a statutory pretax profit of £2.5bn, 4% higher than last year – and lifted the interim dividend.7.45am BSTGood morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.The pound has hit $1.3146, its highest level since last September against the dollar, after last night’s US Federal Reserve statement. The dollar is sliding after the Fed adopted a more cautious tone on the inflation outlook – boosting expectations that the next interest rate hike may be delayed until next year. Continue reading...

The president thinks lower taxes and deregulation will solve the US’s problems. They won’t work, because they never haveAlthough America’s rightwing plutocrats may disagree about how to rank the country’s major problems – for example, inequality, slow growth, low productivity, opioid addiction, poor schools, and deteriorating infrastructure – the solution is always the same: lower taxes and deregulation, to “incentivise” investors and “free up” the economy. Donald Trump is counting on this package to make America great again.It won’t, because it never has. When Ronald Reagan tried it in the 1980s, he claimed that tax revenues would rise. Instead, growth slowed, tax revenues fell, and workers suffered. The big winners in relative terms were corporations and the rich, who benefited from dramatically reduced tax rates.Related: How about a little accountability for economists when they mess up? | Dean Baker Continue reading...

There must be a huge change in our attitude to economics. Needlessly complex work merely supporting the status quo must be halted

We want to hear from those who were affected by the 2007 financial crisis and how their situations have changed since then

ONS highlights role of sector as foreign movie and TV studios are attracted to Britain by government tax breaks and weak poundThe British film production boom, including the Han Solo spin-off from Star Wars and a live action remake of Disney’s Dumbo, is helping boost services industry growth as other sectors flag.“Motion picture activities” – including production activity and income from box office hits such as Wonder Woman, Beauty and the Beast and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 – were singled out by the Office for National Statistics on Wednesday as playing a significant role in the modest growth in UK GDP reported in the three months to the end of June.Related: UK GDP: economy grows by just 0.3% amid 'notable slowdown' Continue reading...

Chancellor acknowledges ‘pain’ of inflation caused by post-referendum depreciation of sterling, after figures reveal scale of slowdownPhilip Hammond has admitted that consumers are suffering from the pound’s sharp post-referendum fall, after what government statisticians have called a “notable slowdown” in growth in the first half of the year.The economy grew by just 0.3% in the second quarter of 2017 following 0.2% expansion in the first three months of the year, Office for National Statistics figures showed.Gross domestic product (GDP) is a key government statistic and provides a measure of the UK's total economic activity.Related: Brexit economy: sterling fall hits public finances and fails to boost tradeRelated: UK suffers 'notable slowdown' as GDP rises by 0.3% in second quarter of 2017 - business live Continue reading...

About 65% of the pump cost of petrol and diesel goes to fund public spending. As this falls, alternative sources of revenue will be needed

Rolling coverage as Britain’s economy posts its weakest six months of growth since 2012

Takeaway outlets are proliferating and life expectancy has stalled. This clear correlation is the sign of a society at a tipping point

The omens are better, with the IMF calling for debt write-offs – but the chances are Greece will require another bailoutCompare and contrast. As Greece raised money in the bond markets for the first time in three years on Tuesday, prime minister Alexis Tsipras declared that the fundraising was “the most significant step to finish this unpleasant adventure”, meaning the country’s bailout.Back in April 2014, when Greece was returning after a four-year absence, the country’s finance minister drew a similar moral. The return to international borrowing markets was “a catalytic undertaking,” he said. The crisis soon returned. The next bailout followed after a referendum on the terms of austerity. Continue reading...

The Single Market Act has given rightwing governments carte blanche to sit back and watch millions of people lose their livelihoods, writes Ian MacKillop. But Nick Dearden cautions against stepping away from the EU and towards the USPolly Toynbee (Labour should exploit the Tories’ disarray on Europe, not copy it, 25 June) claims it is wrong to suggest the EU prevents state ownership and gives as an example how European rail networks remain state-owned; she should have added “for now”. The market pillar of the fourth rail package, as agreed in April 2016, mandates “more competition and performance targets for public service contracts, so as to improve cost-efficiency and get better value for money for taxpayers”, which sounds wearingly familiar. And with 2020 as the target date.Given that the EU court of justice has deliberated that article 106 of the Single Market Act – the one prohibiting renationalisation – gives private companies the right to argue before their national courts that services must remain open to private-sector competition, it is hard to see any wriggle room there when Jeremy Corbyn seeks to implement his manifesto. Continue reading...

All the day’s economic and financial news, as Athens sells debt for the first time in three years

Some analysts express caution over CBI survey showing firms upping production and feeling optimistic about future ordersBritain’s manufacturers increased production last month at the fastest rate since the mid-1990s, according to the latest CBI industrial trends survey.The business lobby group said the fall in sterling over the last year – a 12% decline against the dollar – continued to bolster export orders while domestic demand for manufactured goods remained strong. Continue reading...

Analysis of inquiries to MoneySuperMarket found that 10% of applicants wanted to borrow more than their annual incomeHouseholds in the UK are increasingly relying on borrowed money with one in four people seeking a loan applying for at least half of their annual income, according to new figures that will add to worries about Britain’s mounting personal debt burden.The latest evidence of a rise in borrowing to fund new car purchases, holidays and to help clear older debts follows a stark warning from the Bank of England that lenders offering money on easy terms risked sparking a fresh financial crisis. Banks, credit card companies and car loan providers could be dicing with a “spiral of complacency”, the Bank’s director for financial stability said on Monday. Continue reading...

We shouldn’t be blaming immigrants for our economic slide, we are wasting our own resources through political laziness and incompetence

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It failed to spot the financial crisis coming – so it’s right to be cautious about the strength of the British and US economiesThree months before the start of the biggest financial crisis since the Wall Street Crash, the International Monetary Fund confidently predicted that the world economy looked “well set” for robust growth in 2007 and 2008. Sure, there were risks, said the IMF, but these seemed less threatening in April 2007 than six months previously.The IMF was not, of course, the only organisation that failed to spot economic armageddon coming – merely the one with the highest number of PhDs on the books. But if the fund’s patchy past record means all its forecasts should be treated with caution, its growth downgrade for the UK looks perfectly reasonable.Related: IMF cuts 2017 growth forecasts for UK and US Continue reading...

Banks, credit card companies and car loan providers told they face action against reckless lendingThe Bank of England has told banks, credit card companies and car loan providers that they risk fresh action against reckless lending as it warned of a looming “spiral of complacency” about mounting consumer debt.In its toughest warning yet about the possibility of a rerun of the financial crisis that devastated the economy 10 years ago, Threadneedle Street admitted it was alarmed about the increase in the amount of money being borrowed on easy terms over the past year.Related: Business Today: sign up for a morning shot of financial newsRelated: End of the 'rip-off': all charges for paying by card to be banned Continue reading...

All the day’s economic and financial news, as Athens looks to end its three-year banishment from the markets

Detailed analysis of ‘shrinkflation’ confirms some of the UK’s favourite treats really are getting smallerFor all those shoppers who feel chocolate bars, cartons of drink, toilet rolls and countless other products have been getting smaller, now comes official confirmation. A grand total of 2,529 products tracked by the Office for National Statistics have decreased in size over the past five years.In an analysis of the phenomenon known as “shrinkflation”, the ONS explored whether these dwindling portions are making life more expensive. The theory goes: if a chocolate bar gets smaller but the price stays the same, that is a form of inflation because you are paying more for each bite.Related: Brexit economy: sterling fall hits public finances and fails to boost tradeSome of our favourite sweets are shrinking. What effect is #shrinkflation having on the price of chocolate? https://t.co/r00K4IlmRu pic.twitter.com/2pS4nY1Rp4 Continue reading...

Successful issue of new five-year bonds would help crisis-hit country exit long cycle of austerity and bailoutsAthens has outlined plans to return to the financial markets for the first time since 2014, with a plan to sell new five-year bonds to investors.Existing Greek five-year bonds were trading at 3.6% on Monday morning compared with 63% at the height of the Greek financial crisis in 2012 when the finance ministry was unable to pay public sector wages and there were riots in the streets. Following the announcement that Athens would be returning to the market, the yield fell to 3.4%.

Each month we look at key indicators to see what effect the Brexit process has on growth, prosperity and trade in the UK Continue reading...

The latest monthly Guardian analysis uncovers signs amid the ongoing slowdown that the impact of the pound’s depreciation is starting to fadeThe sharp fall in sterling triggered by the EU referendum result is having an adverse effect on Britain’s already weak public finances but has yet to bring about the expected improvement in the trade deficit, a Guardian analysis of the economic news of the past month shows.In a period in which business confidence took a hit from the government’s loss of its overall majority in the general election, the Guardian’s monthly tracker found little evidence that the impact of a more competitive currency was offsetting a slowdown in consumer spending caused by dearer imports.Related: How has Brexit vote affected UK economy? July verdictRelated: 'Britain is fast becoming the sick man of Europe' – experts debate Brexit data Continue reading...

Two former members of Bank of England’s interest rate-setting committee find little comfort in low productivity and rising inflationProfessor of economics at Dartmouth College, New Hampshire, and member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee from June 2006 to May 2009Related: Brexit economy: sterling fall hits public finances and fails to boost tradeRelated: Brexit economy: sterling fall hits public finances and fails to boost trade Continue reading...

‘Tepid performance’ so far of UK economy and Trump’s failure to deliver tax cuts lead to downgrade to 1.7% and 2.1% respectivelyThe International Monetary Fund has cut its growth forecast for the UK economy this year after a weak performance in the first three months of 2017.In its first downgrade for the UK since the EU referendum in June last year, the IMF said it expected the British economy to expand by 1.7% this year, 0.3 points lower than when it last made predictions in April. Continue reading...

Greg Clark to flesh out industrial strategy by setting out plans to increase productivity, including research projectsA £246m investment in developing battery technology in Britain is to be launched by the government as part of its drive towards what it says is a modern industrial strategy.The business and energy secretary, Greg Clark, will announce the funding, including a £45m competition to make batteries more accessible and affordable, in a speech on Monday that should spell out further the government’s plans to increase productivity and growth. Continue reading...

Profit warnings in three months to June plunge 40%, but analysts say firms are just meeting already low expectationsThe number of UK companies issuing profit warnings fell sharply in the second quarter, but experts warned there could be worse to come.According to advisory group EY, quoted companies issued 45 warnings in the three months to June, a 40% fall on the previous quarter and a third lower than this time last year. This is the biggest quarterly percentage drop since the second quarter of 2009. A stronger-than-expected global economic backdrop and falling forecasts have combined to significantly lower warnings, according to the report. Continue reading...

If the chancellor is to fund higher spending without increasing borrowing, he will need revenue – step forward, Prof Avinash PersaudFor Spreadsheet Phil, the numbers look bad. Growth is weakening. Higher inflation means debt interest payments are rising. The recent election showed a nation heartily sick of austerity. There are pressures for higher public-sector pay.The one big initiative announced by Philip Hammond in his year or so as chancellor was to move the annual budget from the spring to the autumn. Preparatory work for the first of those will begin in earnest over the summer, and nothing so far has suggested that Hammond will be in a generous mood. Quite the contrary, in fact.Related: Post-Brexit UK economy demands a new type of Robin Hood tax Continue reading...

The head of the British Chambers of Commerce says Britain would be outflanked in any hastily arranged transatlantic deal agreementAs someone born in the US who has spent all his adult life in the UK, you might think I would be a natural advocate for a comprehensive US-UK free trade agreement. After all, more than 15% of all UK goods exports already go to the US – the biggest percentage for any single country, if the 47% of UK goods exports that go to the EU’s 27 countries are discounted.The US and UK are the world’s two pre-eminent services exporters and the flow of knowledge and deals between them is similarly immense, as is the healthy competition between firms and financial centres. Because of this, a surprisingly large number of politicians and commentators seem to believe that, rather than pursuing quick wins that tackle some of the practical issues faced in UK-US trade, a comprehensive FTA with the US should be an early goal for post-Brexit Britain.Related: Rex Tillerson: 'America first' means divorcing our policy from our valuesRelated: Hopes of EU-US trade agreement put on ice, say Brussels sources Continue reading...

David Davis and Liam Fox may believe that Britain can have its cake and eat it, but few others doDon’t worry, the Brexiters say – when the negotiations reach their nail-biting conclusion, Brussels will cave in.In parliament, there are more than enough Tory backbench MPs who hold this view to stymie any backsliding by chief negotiator David Davis and his cabinet colleagues. Or so they think. Continue reading...

Profits at Goldman Sachs fall 40% with other investment banks badly hit as calm returns to the marketsCity bond traders have put the champagne on ice. They had a good run. For some it lasted almost a year. But it’s over now and the “new normal” of low trading volumes and weak profits is reasserting itself.On Wall Street, Goldman Sachs took the biggest hit. This week the firm reported profits had plunged 40% in the second quarter on its bond, currency and commodities trading desks. Continue reading...

Government borrowing rises by more than expected to £6.9bn in June – almost 50% higher than in the same month last yearThe government was forced to borrow more than expected in June after a jump in the UK’s budget deficit to £6.9bn – almost 50% higher than the same month last year.The sharp rise followed a spike in the cost of financing the UK’s debt, a drop in corporation tax receipts and a larger than forecast contribution to the EU in June.Related: The Tories have failed to fix the roof – and now storms are brewing | Larry Elliott Continue reading...

All the day’s economic and financial news, including coverage of the latest UK public finances

Senior source tells Guardian mood has shifted under pressure from British businesses to secure a workable dealThe British cabinet has accepted that free movement of people for up to four years after Britain leaves the EU will be part of a Brexit transition deal, according to a senior source.As the EU chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, underlined the need for clarity on the British side at the end of the latest round of exit negotiations, soft Brexiters in the cabinet are now confident they have achieved a consensus about an “off the shelf” transition deal.Related: Blow-by-blow Brexit: how the main players see the seven key areas Continue reading...

All the day’s economic and financial news, including rolling coverage of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting

Retail sales rise beats expectations but economists warn it could prove temporary as inflation squeezes payRetail sales rebounded in June as the sunny weather put consumers in the mood to update their summer wardrobes.

Analysts say shoppers buying fewer and cheaper baking ingredients less often in sign inflation dampening Great British Bake Off effectThere are signs Britain’s home baking boom may be running out of steam, just as Channel 4 prepares to relaunch one of its main catalysts, The Great British Bake Off.The amount of baking ingredients, including flour, dried fruits and cake coverings, sold by supermarkets fell 3.8% in the year to the end of March, according to analysts at Kantar Worldpanel.Related: Channel 4's Great British Bake Off 'will have fantastic chemistry' Continue reading...

Markets have no idea where the economy is headed and interest rate rises could easily push the UK back into recession

Investors await monetary policy reading from the ECB as key index hits 2007 levels after the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq hit new all-time highsShares in Asia have reached their highest point for nearly 10 years bolstered by a surge in stock markets around the world on the back of strong US corporate earnings.As investors awaited the European Central Bank meeting for clues on its policy outlooks, the MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan added 0.15%, hovering near its highest level since December 2007.Related: How could we cope if capitalism failed? Ask 26 Greek factory workers | Aditya ChakraborttyEverything is Awesome!!!