All the day’s economic and financial news, as political events continue to dominate the markets

There is no greater indictment of British society than soaring rates of mental distress in children. No wonder politicians cling to a simplistic ‘illness’ modelThe public profile of mental health experienced another boost this week, thanks to some moving comments made by Prince Harry and the Duke of Cambridge about the impact of their mother’s death, nearly 20 years ago. The two royals are working for the Heads Together campaign, which seeks to combat the stigma surrounding mental health issues, and to encourage people to speak more openly about their difficulties.Harry’s admission that he had ignored his own emotional distress for several years before eventually having counselling was a valuable contribution, from a figure more commonly associated with laddish machismo. William’s focus on male suicide statistics was also a good use of his celebrity.There is no more damning indictment on British society in 2017 than the prevalence of mental distress among childrenRelated: The stiff upper lip: why the royal health warning matters Continue reading...

Devious, cunning and cruel, as Tory chancellor he imposed his mendacious mantras on the national psyche. His legacy is a poisoned political landscapeMost politicians intend to do good, as they see it. It’s an odd quirk in public attitudes that the idea of democracy is revered but its practitioners are, mostly, reviled: from graffiti in ancient Rome, it was ever thus. Political commentators need to appreciate the practitioners, however opposing their views.Related: George Osborne: history will not be kind to a man whose flaws led to BrexitRelated: George Osborne is laughing at us as he takes his Evening Standard job | Aditya Chakrabortty Continue reading...

Latest IMF world outlook is most positive in years – although that’s not saying much – and it’s looking closely at falling shares of income to labourThe latest IMF world economic outlook released on Tuesday is the most positive for years, but it also highlights the continued risks from nationalistic and protectionist policies and the impact of policies and technology changes that reduce the share of income going to workers.For the past eight or nine years, the IMF world economic outlook has been pretty soul crushing. Dismal doesn’t begin to convey the mood. Consider that the titles for the outlook have been such joyous reads as “Financial Stress, Downturns, and Recoveries”, “Crisis and Recovery”, “Slowing Growth, Rising Risks”, “Legacies, Clouds, Uncertainties” and the one from April last year, “Too Slow for Too Long”. So it is with some relief to see a bit of positivity infect the IMF. The most recent update, is titled, “Gaining Momentum?”Related: Malcolm Turnbull's myth of 'middle Australia' ignores both gender and reality | Greg JerichoRelated: Does earning $180,000 make you rich? Let's not pretend about who's rich and who's poor | Greg Jericho Continue reading...

Britain’s blue-chip stock index has fallen for the second day running, and sterling is dipping too

Organisation also says financial stability is threatened by US corporate debt, China’s credit bubble and weak EU banksThe International Monetary Fund has warned that Brexit’s unpredictable outcome poses a risk to global financial stability at a time when it is already challenged by heavily-indebted US corporations, China’s credit bubble and weak European banks.Warning that banks were likely to be the sector of the City hardest hit by Britain’s departure from the European Union, the IMF said the costs of doing business would rise and regulation would become more complex.Related: IMF ratchets up UK economic growth forecast to 2% Continue reading...

The world recovery is gaining momentum which is a bonus for Australia as a commodity exporterThe global economy is gaining momentum which should be good news for Australia’s commodities-based economy.But the International Monetary Fund has again raised concerns about a growing shift towards trade protectionism and a breakdown of international economic collaboration which took root after the second world war.Related: America owes China $1tn. That’s a problem for Beijing, and Trump knows it Continue reading...

Theresa May may have won herself room to compromise on the UK’s exit from the EU – but don’t get too carried awayIgnore the 180-point fall in the FTSE 100 index. Part of the decline occurred before the lectern had even been placed in Downing Street. Part of the rest can be explained by a stronger pound, which tends to depresses the value of the many big dollar-earners in the index. The real question is why sterling, which hit a six-month high, reacted so strongly to an early general election.It was because investors calculated – counter-intuitively at first glance – that a bigger Tory majority in the Commons, if that’s what follows, will mean a softer form of Brexit. This argument was best expressed by Deutsche Bank’s analysts, who reckon the election is “a game-changer” for the pound and the Brexit negotiations. A bigger majority would set Theresa May free from the “unrealistic timetable” set by the eurosceptics in her party, they argue.Related: FTSE 100 suffers worst day since Brexit vote after May calls election Continue reading...

Sterling has rallied strongly as analysts predict Theresa May will secure a larger majority in the June 8 general election

Fund notes stronger-than-expected performance since Brexit vote but warns protectionism may hold back growthThe International Monetary Fund has revised up its UK growth forecast for the second time in three months after admitting that the performance of the economy since the Brexit vote last year had been stronger than expected.In its half-yearly World Economic Outlook, the IMF said it now envisaged the British economy expanding by 2% in 2017 – making it the second fastest-growing advanced economy after the US..Related: IMF chief warns that euro stability is threatened by French election – business liveRelated: Trump, trade, interest and aid make for a challenging IMF summit Continue reading...

Frances O’Grady says Brexit talks can stop EU’s arbitration court treating workers and consumers as second-class citizensA post-Brexit trade deal should be governed by a new court system that is fairer to workers, the TUC’s general secretary has said.Frances O’Grady said Britain and the EU had a chance to take a different approach to arbitration courts that make judgments on trade disputes.

The UK has had three grand plans in 10 years. It’s time to get everyone to agree on the targets and stick to themFor many years, the idea that a government of the right should have an industrial policy was heresy. The state’s role was to keep inflation and taxes low, then stay out of the way so that market forces could operate. Ronald Reagan summed up the philosophy when he said the nine most dangerous words in politics were: “I’m from the government and I’m here to help.”The idea that Reagan pursued a form of pure laissez-faire is, of course, nonsense. Plenty of US firms reaped the benefits of vastly increased defence spending in the 1980s, a form of military Keynesianism, that had plenty of technological spin-offs.Related: Theresa May's industrial strategy: what took them so long?Related: The Guardian view on industrial strategy: hot air but no liftoff | EditorialRelated: Beware the unintended consequences of a robot revolution Continue reading...

Trump has promised a ‘phenomenal’ plan to reform America’s labyrinthine tax system, but it’s a feat no president has achieved since Reagan

The Bank of England, IMF and other policymakers see ongoing low rates as dangerous but can’t see how to change things. There is a way, of course …For some time now savers have campaigned for a return to normal interest rates, by which they mean central bank rates more like 4%-5%. And it’s not just about earning more on their savings. This protest against the current 0.25% base rate also has a broader, altruistic bent. At least that is what they honestly believe.They argue that higher interest rates will restore a lost balance in the economy – taking it back to the way it was before the financial crisis, when things were so much better. Continue reading...

With world tensions rising and globalisation in retreat, ministers and business leaders have much to discuss this week in WashingtonGeopolitical tensions, uncertainty about the future of the EU and an increasingly unpredictable US president form the fraught backdrop to this year’s spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank this week.The prospect of rising protectionism also looms large for the IMF, a multilateral organisation set up during the second world war to foster cooperation between economies. Its co-host, the World Bank, faces similarly daunting challenges to its mission to cut poverty and inequality. Continue reading...

Investment in education and retraining is needed to equip people to adapt as automation shakes up their workplacesAsk an economist or a technology expert and they will happily tell you that decades of data reliably show automation has created more jobs than it has destroyed.Far fewer of us now work on farms, for example, thanks to super-efficient machines that do the bulk of the work. Such technology has boosted productivity and, with it, living standards. As a result, more people work in leisure industries such as hospitality or hairdressing, serving all those people with higher disposable incomes and more free time.Related: The Guardian view on the automated future: fewer shops and fewer people | EditorialRelated: The robots are coming. Will they bring wealth or a divided society? Continue reading...

The reasons for knife crime are complex, but it’s wrong to ignore the impact of cuts to youth fundingOn Monday Cedric Anderson, the estranged husband of a special education teacher, Karen Smith, walked into her primary school classroom in San Bernardino, California, and shot dead both her and eight-year-old Jonathan Martinez; injured two other children; and then fatally shot himself. Martinez was the 67th child under the age of 11 to be shot dead in America this year. (Four more have been killed since then.) Smith, who had married Anderson just a few months earlier, was just one of the estimated 50 women in the US to be shot dead by a current or former partner each month. Of the 91 mass shootings so far this year, almost one a day, all of those where the identity of the shooter is known were committed by men.Every day in America, on average, seven children and teens are shot dead. While writing a book exploring the gun fatalities on one random day, I asked every family who I reached an open-ended question about what they thought was driving such shootings. Not a single one volunteered the answer “guns”. I concluded that many I spoke to regarded guns as one might regard traffic, if your child were knocked down – as the regrettable, tragic price one pays for living in modern society, about which little can be done. Similarly, when mass shootings take place commentators will discuss a range of issues – religion, gang affiliation, mental health and race – but masculinity rarely comes up. It’s simply been so factored in to our understanding of how the world works that it escapes scrutiny.Related: Beyond the blade: marking the death of every child and teen by a knife in 2017Related: Beyond the blade: the truth about knife crime in Britain Continue reading...

Alternative economics | ‘Bubble’ laces | Dear Dr Banana | Rebranding bank holidays | TV juxtapositionsI still recall a comment in my first economics lesson that there is no obvious limit to human wants. Lugubrious US comic Steve Wright provided a perfect retort: “You can’t have everything; where would you put it?” It is encouraging to see that more economists (Finally, a breakthrough alternative to growth economics – the doughnut, 12 April) are realising that a system which boils down to everyone making more money and buying more stuff will ultimately collapse in a heap.

Indications that US economy has slowed in recent months will give policymakers plenty to debate as they decide when to next to raise ratesFalling retail sales and lower inflation in the US have added to signs that the world’s biggest economy has lost momentum in recent months, casting doubt over how many more times the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year.Stronger takings at clothing and electronics stores in March were not enough to offset a continued drop in demand for cars, according to figures from the US government (pdf). As a result, retail sales fell for the second month running.Related: Is business starting to get spooked about Donald Trump? | Larry Elliott Continue reading...

Your editorial on the French elections (11 April), with its encouraging mention of the rise of the higher tax and spend candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, failed to mention possibly his biggest electoral draw: the fact that he is a leftwing protectionist. Prior to the 2012 election, polls showed that over 80% of French across the political spectrum thought that free trade had a negative impact on employment. So it’s not just immigration that is fuelling ever-broadening support for Marine Le Pen, it is also the fact that she too is an overt protectionist.These trends have obviously not been lost on the unholy trinity of free trade pushers the IMF, WTO, and the World Bank (Report, 11 April). Having forced nations across the world to accept their open-borders, export-led growth mantra they are now busy crying crocodile tears for the “left behind”, the inevitable result of their policies. They still rail against protectionism, despite the fact that if it has a progressive end goal, it could enhance the economic and social conditions of the globally disadvantaged. Continue reading...

The pound rose above $1.25 on Thursday after President Trump said the dollar was ‘getting too strong’

Bank of England has voiced concern over rising consumer debt, including credit cards, car loans and second mortgagesWorried lenders are starting to put the brakes on Britain’s consumer borrowing binge and plan to get tougher on credit card users, according to a Bank of England survey.Its poll of all the main high street lenders showed they had cut access to credit in the opening months of this year and plan to limit it further. The proportion of lenders expecting to restrict access to credit between April and June was the highest since the financial crisis in 2008.Related: UK's borrowing binge is worrying the Bank of England Continue reading...

After his U-turns at home and Dr Strangelove-style antics abroad, markets and investors are supposing that the president is making it up as he goes alongFinancial markets are starting to have doubts about Donald Trump. The euphoria that sent share prices on Wall Street to record levels has quickly dissipated amid fears that the new president is dangerously unpredictable.Evidence that Trump does not really have a clue about what he is doing is mounting by the day. The failure to get Congress to agree to a repeal of Obamacare was the first sign of trouble, since it raised questions about whether the White House would be able to pass an economic stimulus package.Related: Bank of England sounds new alarm over consumer credit binge Continue reading...

People feel they have permission to abuse us, because austerity has rendered us second-class citizens, excluded from society. This has to be addressedThe bullying of disabled people can often be subtle. Over time, I’ve become immune and also cynical. You filter out a lot of the abuse in order to get on with your life.But last week, I was at a pedestrian crossing in north London, and here’s the question: am I being oversensitive if I react to a cyclist speeding towards me shouting abuse? He didn’t stop and neither did I, meaning the poor dear in his black storm trooper helmet had to swerve to avoid me because I dared to be on the crossing. He did shout “Fucking spastic!” – which I suppose means he fine-tuned his abuse to include a repellent reference to impairment. I didn’t respond. What would be the point?If you can’t get to a pub or your favourite shop, then your visibility in your community decreases exponentiallyRelated: Turning Paralympians into ‘superhumans’ is no help to disabled people | Penny Pepper Continue reading...

Once known for bucket-and-spade holidays, Rhyl has since seen high unemployment. But a £33m regeneration of the Welsh town is underwayIt was summertime when Katey Howell, 34, first visited Rhyl, and she was bowled over by a town where everyone “seemed really happy”. The north Wales seaside resort was “full of holidaymakers, had a beach you could walk to and a good range of shops”. In 2004, Howell moved from Manchester to be with her future husband. “It seemed like a nice thing to do, to get away from city life and move down here.”

In defence of large companies named and shamed by Corbyn (Corbyn declares war on M&S – but retailer ‘does not recognise figures’, 12 April), Experian said that the data taken from its report showing very late payment of invoices do not apply to the majority of invoices. Capita said that only 10% of its payments are made later than 30 days of receipt. But even such a small percentage of late payment by a large company can cause huge pressures down the supply chain, and it invites questions about corporate ethics. Jeremy Corbyn raises a valid alarm about a potential national scandal.

Supermarkets know consumers are sensitive to price rises of staple items such as milk. So they have increased the cost of less regular items in the hope that people won’t noticeIf your weekly shopping bills seem to be going up, even though the price of a pint of milk is holding steady, there is a good reason for that. According to industry watchdogs, British supermarkets have responded to Brexit-induced inflation and the weaker pound by quietly hiking the cost of less regular purchases such as light bulbs, water filters and dental floss.According to the Office of National Statistics, food prices rose in annual terms for the first time in almost three years. Comparison website MySupermarket.co.uk compiled data from Asda, Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Waitrose, Ocado and Morrisons and found that, while milk stood still at £1 for four pints everywhere, the cost of an exotic fish supper has increased markedly since last October.Related: Rising food and fuel prices hoist UK inflation rate to 2.3% Continue reading...

Pay growth was weaker than inflation in February, official figures show, signalling a return to falling real pay and a squeeze in living standards

UK living standards seem to be declining, as they did in the coalition years – but in very different economic circumstancesLooking back, the spring of 2015 was the perfect time for David Cameron to fight a general election. Tumbling oil prices had left inflation at zero and after a couple of years of falling unemployment, annual wage growth was nudging 3%. Rising real earnings translated into a feel-good factor that delivered a political dividend for the Conservatives.Two years on, the real surprise is not the bounce-back in inflation, which at 2.3% remains modest by Britain’s recent standards, but the renewed slowdown in wage growth. Unemployment has continued to fall since the general election and the jobless rate has not been lower since the 1970s. Continue reading...

Despite another fall in unemployment and a rise in vacancies, inflation outstripped pay growth in FebruaryRising prices and stagnant wage growth have resulted in the first fall in living standards in two and a half years, according to official figures.Labour market data from the Office for National Statistics showed that regular pay in the UK in February was 1.9% higher than a year earlier and is running below the 2.3% increase in prices. Continue reading...

Christine Lagarde claims ‘sword of protectionism’ hangs over global economy and international cooperation is vitalThe managing director of the International Monetary Fund has delivered one of her strongest condemnations of the protectionist policies of Donald Trump, warning that putting up barriers to trade would be a “self-inflicted wound” to an improving global economy.Christine Lagarde used a speech in Brussels to launch a strong attack on the go-it-alone approach championed by the US president during his election battle with Hillary Clinton.Related: Global productivity slowdown risks creating instability, warns IMF Continue reading...

Instead of growth at all costs, a new economic model allows us to thrive while saving the planetSo what are we going to do about it? This is the only question worth asking. But the answers appear elusive. Faced with a multifaceted crisis – the capture of governments by billionaires and their lobbyists, extreme inequality, the rise of demagogues, above all the collapse of the living world – those to whom we look for leadership appear stunned, voiceless, clueless. Even if they had the courage to act, they have no idea what to do.The most they tend to offer is more economic growth: the fairy dust supposed to make all the bad stuff disappear. Never mind that it drives ecological destruction; that it has failed to relieve structural unemployment or soaring inequality; that, in some recent years, almost all the increment in incomes has been harvested by the top 1%. As values, principles and moral purpose are lost, the promise of growth is all that’s left.Related: Old economics is based on false ‘laws of physics’ – new economics can save usRelated: Eight men own more than 3.6 billion people do: our economics is broken | Mark Goldring Continue reading...

The ONS has changed the way it counts inflation. More haste, less speed is needed to restore faith in factsToday’s inflation figures showed prices rising faster than at any time in the past three years. But that was not the most remarkable aspect of the data. Until recently, CPI – the monthly update on inflation – has paid little attention to housing costs, featuring instead a basket of goods and services. Now, the Office for National Statistics has put almost all of its focus on a newer and controversial measure called CPIH which adds owner-occupiers’ housing costs to the basket. The idea is to reflect the costs associated with living in one’s own home, something that is estimated to take up a tenth of household expenditure. But so far it has failed to win the official badge of excellence, classification as a “national statistic” by the nation’s fact-checker, the UK Statistics Authority. The ONS hopes that the change helps to bring official measures closer to individual experience. But rushing to include it before the way it is calculated has the kitemark of reliability risks fuelling, rather than healing, the scepticism that was exposed and partly legitimised in the EU referendum campaign.The trouble with statistics is sometimes the statistics themselves – last year, MPs on the Treasury select committee were scathing about the “lack of intellectual curiosity” and failure to respond to consumer need of the ONS – but sometimes it’s also a failure to understand what statistics can, and can’t, explain. Their introduction in the “Whitehall knows best” years after the war transformed public policymaking. But in an age when people see themselves as individuals first, part of a community second, and when geographical and individual inequalities have grown sharply, official statistics have sometimes felt inadequate as a way of describing what life is really like. It was hard, for example, to believe in the idea of immigration as a national economic bonus when it was experienced as oversubscribed GP lists and overflowing classrooms. Continue reading...

Jim Yong Kim says there is greater risk of war, terrorism and increased migration if aspirations of poorer countries are not metFailure to meet the internet-inspired aspirations of people in poor countries runs the risk of creating the conditions for war, terrorism and increased migration, the president of the World Bank has warned.Speaking in London ahead of the Bank’s spring meeting next week, Jim Yong Kim said an urgent development push was needed in order to meet the demands for a better life by those in developing countries, increasingly aware through their smartphones of how rich people lived.Related: Technology can empower children in developing countries - if it's done rightRelated: Can technology free developing countries from light poverty? Continue reading...

UK consumer price index above Bank of England’s 2% target again, putting continuing pressure on real incomes2.28pm BSTHere’s a round up of the day’s events.UK inflation was flat, with the consumer price index coming in at 2.3% in March for the second month in a row.1.20pm BSTThe pound is currently up 0.25% at $1.2441, having been as high as $1.2445 and as low as $1.2404. FXTM research analyst Lukman Otunuga said:Sterling was volatile on Tuesday, with prices oscillating between losses and gains after markets digested the UK’s steady 2.3% inflation figure for March, which was the highest level since September 2013. The ongoing currency weakness created by Brexit, coupled with rising oil prices has elevated inflation above the Bank of England’s 2% target, with speculation mounting over CPI following its positive trajectory this quarter. Although the immediate market reaction to March’s headline CPI reading was noticeably bullish, gains may be relinquished when participants start to re-evaluate the impact it may have on the UK economy. With inflation still above average earning there is a threat of consumer spending taking a hit, which could spark concerns over the longevity of the UK’s consumer-fuelled economic growth.12.07pm BSTShould the Bank of England raise interest rates? The answer is complicated, writes Larry Elliott:It seems so obvious. The Bank of England sets interest rates to hit the government’s 2% inflation target. Inflation is currently 2.3% and – despite holding steady in March – is certain to go higher over the coming months. Higher borrowing costs choke off inflationary pressure. Therefore interest rates should now be going up.In reality, it is a bit more complicated than that. The first thing the nine members of the Bank’s monetary policy committee have to decide is whether the above-target inflation seen in the last couple of months is a temporary blip. It’s quite clear it isn’t. Food is going up, energy companies are raising their tariffs, retailers are passing on the higher costs of imports caused by a weaker pound.Related: Inflation is only going one way. Let's hope interest rates don't follow | Larry Elliott11.50am BSTHere’s our report on the inflation figures:Rising food and clothing prices kept Britain’s inflation rate at its highest level for more than three years last month, putting household budgets under pressure as the Brexit effect on the pound worked its way through the economy.Official figures put inflation on the consumer prices index (CPI) at 2.3% for the second month running in March, in line with economists’ forecasts, as food prices rose at the fastest pace for three years, increasing 1.2% on the year.Related: UK inflation stays at three-year high of 2.3%11.37am BST$FTSE enjoying itself today, don't forget April is historically a strong month (ave. return 1.8% over last 20 yrs): pic.twitter.com/HEz0qZ4JLD11.33am BSTWith the pound now fairly flat against the dollar in the wake of the inflation numbers, the FTSE 100 is pretty buoyant, up 44 points or 0.6%.The host of overseas earners in the UK’s leading index are supported by a weaker sterling, and the fact the currency has moved no higher has been taken positively by investors. Connor Campbell at Spreadex said:While the pound was clearly disappointed that the CPI didn’t grow any further in March, the fact that it avoided the dip forecast by analysts meant the currency’s losses weren’t too pronounced.Against the euro sterling fell 0.2%, shuffling under 1.17 in the process; against the dollar, however, the pound sat flat, keeping its head just above 1.24. Though the pound didn’t have an aggressively sour reaction to the inflation figure, the fact that it didn’t move any higher was enough to lift the FTSE, which surged more than half a percent to hit a 3 week high.11.08am BSTUK house prices rose by 5.8% year on year in February compared to 5.3% the previous month, with London showing the slowest increase since April 2012 at 3.7%.The UK figure is still below the average annual house price growth of 7.3% seen in 2016. The Office for National Statistics said:The main contribution to the increase in UK house prices came from England, where house prices increased by 6.3% over the year to February 2017, with the average price in England now £234,000. Wales saw house prices increase by 1.8% over the last 12 months to stand at £145,000. In Scotland, the average price increased by 3.1% over the year to stand at £139,000. The average price in Northern Ireland currently stands at £125,000, an increase of 5.7% over the last 12 months.House prices in Feb were up just 3.7% y/y in London vs 6% in the rest of the UK. Prices haven't underperformed in the capital since Aug 09: pic.twitter.com/n6nMxiqnZz10.58am BSTThe forthcoming French presidential election is causing some tremors for the euro:Investors are showing increasing concern before the French presidential elections https://t.co/kz0ZGjav4q pic.twitter.com/zbdlq0igtsThe single currency has held up so far but investors are becoming particularly worried ahead of April 23rd (the first round of the French election).10.26am BSTBack with UK inflation, and there is one category of consumer who is being particularly hard hit by price rises, points out Laith Khalaf, senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown:In March food inflation really took off, which suggests the supermarkets are now starting to pass rising import costs onto consumers.Crisps and margarine saw particularly steep price rises, not good news for fans of the crisp sandwich.The inflationary squeeze that’s coming is going to mean consumers have to spend more at the check outs and petrol pumps, and that reduces their capacity to fund discretionary spending. It also reduces people’s propensity to save, which is particularly worrying at a time when the UK’s savings ratio is at its lowest level since the 1960s, and retirement is costlier than ever because of gains in life expectancy.10.21am BSTAway from UK inflation, and German consumers remain confident it seems.The ZEW Institute’s economic sentiment index came in at 19.5 in April compared to 12.8 the previous month and expectations of a figure of 14. This was the highest level since August 2015. ZEW president Achim Wambach said:Though the long-term average as calculated from the beginning of the survey (December 1991) is yet to be beaten, these results are comparable to the expectations prior to the Brexit vote in June 2016.The German economic situation has proved fairly robust in the first quarter. This is highlighted by the solid figures for growth in industrial production, the construction sector and retail sales from February. In addition, the consistently high labour demand has boosted private consumption.#Eurozone #industrial production unexepctedly dipped 0.3% m/m in Feb (+0.3% in Jan) as limited by 4.7% drop in energy output; up 1.2% y/y10.07am BSTMore reaction:10.01am BSTAnd here’s the TUC on the inflation figures. General Secretary Frances O’Grady said:Rising prices and sluggish pay increases mean that real earnings growth has now ground to a halt. Without government action, another living standards crisis is on the cards.We urgently need more investment in skills and infrastructure to build strong foundations for better paid jobs. And it’s time to scrap the pay restrictions hitting midwives, teachers and other public servants.9.49am BSTRetail sales figures from the British Retail Consortium released overnight showed that the rise in inflation is already starting to bite, with non-food high street sales suffering the worst fall in nearly six years. With price rises outstripping wages, we are getting progressively poorer each month. Unsurprisingly, consumers are choosing to instead focus their spending on essential items like food and fuel. Changing shopping habits and a fall in spending should flash amber warning lights for an economy reliant on confident consumers hitting the shops.9.43am BSTRising inflation which is outpacing wage growth puts pressure on household incomes of course, something the Treasury seems aware of in its response to this latest data. A spokesperson said:We are building an economy that works for everyone and helping families with the cost of living by cutting income taxes for 31 million people, freezing fuel duty and increasing the National Living Wage to £7.50 per hour.9.39am BSTThe pound, initially down on the inflation figures, is now at a day’s high of $1.2446 against the dollar.9.38am BST9.31am BSTBREAKING NEWSUK consumer price inflation - the Bank of England’s preferred measure - has come in at 2.3% year on year in March, the same as the previous month and in line with expectations.9.13am BSTMore on the news on Monday that Barclays chief executive Jes Staley had attempted to unmask a whistleblower despite being warned not to, and is facing an investigation by regulators.Thomas Moore, investment director at Standard Life Investments told the BBC Today programme that the timing of Staley’s actions was “amazing” given that only last year the Financial Conduct Authority issued a report saying it wanted to encourage a culture where whistleblowers could come forward without fear of reprisals.Related: Barclays boss admits errors over whistleblower and says 'I got too personally involved' - as it happened8.42am BSTShares in JD Sports Fashion have hit a new all time high after it unveiled record full year profits. They jumped as high as 425p in the immediate wake of the figures and are currently up 4% at 424p. Reuters reports:Britain’s JD Sports Fashion Plc posted a 55 percent rise in full-year headline pretax profit as demand for leisurewear products remained firm.JD Sports, which alongside its core sports retail business runs fashion and outdoor retail outlets such as Scotts and Blacks, said headline profit before tax and exceptional items rose to a record 244.8 million pounds from 157.1 million a year earlier.The results are an example of what the right product, well merchandised can achieve in the current environment and, whilst the trainer trend tailwind has been off the Beaufort scale, JD has sailed it skilfully. Both sports fashion and outdoor exceeded expectations.8.17am BSTConnor Campbell, financial analyst at Spreadex, said:The Eurozone indices fell sharply this Tuesday, the DAX and CAC each dropping half a percent. It appears that the current global political tensions, namely those between the US and Syria/Russia, as well as North Korea, have spooked investors, the FTSE perhaps only avoiding the same level of losses due to the impending inflation update.8.07am BSTAs expected, investors are taking a cautious view in the wake of growing geo-political tensions. Those investors who are around, that is, given that trading is likely to be fairly quiet in the run-up to the Easter break.The FTSE 100 has fallen around 10 points or 0.1% while France’s Cac has opened 0.5% lower, Germany’s Dax is down 0.4% and Spain’s Ibex is 0.6% lower.EU Movers:

His comments during the campaign didn’t bolster high hopes, but his summit with Xi Jinping showed he needs China’s businessDonald Trump’s comments about China during the US presidential campaign didn’t exactly bolster high hopes for Sino-American relations once he was elected. Trump denounced China for “taking our jobs” and “[stealing] hundreds of billions of dollars in our intellectual property”. He repeatedly accused China of manipulating its currency. The low point came last May, when Trump warned his followers: “We can’t continue to allow China to rape our country. That’s what they’re doing. It’s the greatest theft in the history of the world.”Given such inflammatory rhetoric, many people understandably felt considerable trepidation in the runup to Trump’s summit with the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate. It wasn’t hard to imagine a refused handshake or the presentation of a bill for payment, like the one Trump reportedly gave the visiting German chancellor, Angela Merkel, (a report denied by the White House).Related: Trump to visit China as Beijing touts 'new era' of ties with US Continue reading...

The question is not whether inflation will continue rising in 2017 but how high it will go. At least 3%, maybe even higher …It seems so obvious. The Bank of England sets interest rates to hit the government’s 2% inflation target. Inflation is currently 2.3% and – despite holding steady in March – is certain to go higher over the coming months. Higher borrowing costs choke off inflationary pressure. Therefore interest rates should now be going up.In reality, it is a bit more complicated than that. The first thing the nine members of the Bank’s monetary policy committee have to decide is whether the above-target inflation seen in the last couple of months is a temporary blip. It’s quite clear it isn’t. Food is going up, energy companies are raising their tariffs, retailers are passing on the higher costs of imports caused by a weaker pound.Related: UK inflation stays at three-year high of 2.3% Continue reading...

Economists warn rate will rise further as Brexit effect on sterling inflates grocery bills and eats into already strained household budgetsRising food and clothing prices kept Britain’s inflation rate at its highest level for more than three years last month, putting household budgets under pressure as the Brexit effect on the pound worked its way through the economy.Official figures put inflation on the consumer prices index (CPI) at 2.3% for the second month running in March, in line with economists’ forecasts, as food prices rose at the fastest pace for three years, increasing 1.2% on the year.Related: Inflation is only going one way. Let's hope interest rates don't follow | Larry ElliottRelated: UK inflation steady at 2.3% in March - business liveRelated: UK inflation stays at three-year high of 2.3% Continue reading...

As councils struggle with cuts, one Lancashire city adapted a pioneering grassroots approach from America to tackling inequality and keeping profits localTed Howard looks out on a group of people drinking tea from styrofoam cups at Preston town hall on a Monday afternoon in March. The social entrepreneur and author from Cleveland, Ohio, is the special guest at the city’s monthly social forum. “What’s happening in this community is historic – it blows my mind,” he tells the city councillors and local business owners. “We’re working out how to build an inclusive economy.”Howard’s infectious enthusiasm has made him the de facto spokesperson for “community wealth building”, a way of tackling inequality by ensuring the economic development of a place is shared more equally among its residents.[Preston is] creating an ecosystem of change that will be the engine for a new, fairer economyThe inclusive economy’s time has comeRelated: The radical model fighting the housing crisis: property prices based on income Continue reading...

Takings tumble for third successive month as inflation figures expected to show sharp rise in price of household essentialsBritain’s retailers suffered a third consecutive month of falling sales in March, according to industry figures that add to evidence that a post-referendum rise in living costs is denting consumer spending.In advance of official inflation figures on Tuesday, expected to confirm sharper price rises in the shops, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) said takings were down 1% compared with March last year. Continue reading...

The whole philosophy of how to pay for local services is about to change, and it doesn’t look goodThe Guardian’s analysis of who in Britain is housing and educating the refugees and asylum seekers who should be shared across the country shows that the responsibility falls on fewer than a third of councils. That is not only a shaming example of how many prosperous local authorities have found ways to avoid the appeal to help, which is bleakly revealed in the raw numbers showing that Labour-led authorities have taken 11.6 asylum seekers per 10,000 population, compared with just 0.7 in Conservative-led ones (and only four refugees live in the prime minister’s Maidenhead constituency). Nor is it simply more evidence of how unequal Britain is becoming from city to city, and from inner city to leafy suburb. Nor merely a badly designed plan that urgently needs revising. It is a vivid illustration of how those councils that have rather than those that have not are being favoured by government policy.Local government finance may be a strong contender for the most boring and complex subject in politics, but what it lacks in thrills it gains in its sheer impact on ordinary lives. That is why the current re-engineering of the way it is funded, trailed two years ago when George Osborne announced that councils would be allowed to keep all their business rate income by 2020, is both among the most important and the least discussed questions in a Whitehall dominated by Brexit. Continue reading...

Retailers expect shift to expenditure on socialising rather than consumer goods to intensify this EasterUK high streets are expected to be busy this Easter weekend, with forecasters predicting an increase in the number of people going out to spend money on food and drink.Mild spring weather and the fact that the bank holiday weekend falls not long after March’s payday, are expected to lead to an 8.8% increase in the number of shoppers on the high street, according to the latest footfall predictions from retail analyst Springboard. In total, footfall to all outlets, including retail parks, is expected to be up by 5.4% year on year, in contrast to a 1.9% fall over Easter 2016.Related: Sharp rise in UK food prices inflates household shopping bill Continue reading...

Many Republicans are unlikely to support adding trillions of dollars to public debt to reduce corporation and personal taxesPresident Donald Trump’s first major legislative goal – to “repeal and replace” the 2010 Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”) – has already imploded, owing to Trump and congressional Republicans’ naivety about the complexities of healthcare reform. Their attempt to replace an imperfect but popular law with a pseudo-reform that would deprive more than 24 million Americans of basic healthcare was bound to fail – or sink Republican members of Congress in the 2018 midterm elections if it had passed.Now Trump and congressional Republicans are pursuing tax reform, starting with corporate taxes and then moving on to personal income taxes, as if this will be any easier. It won’t be, not least because the Republicans’ initial proposals would add trillions of dollars to budget deficits, and funnel more than 99% of the benefits to the top 1% of the income distribution.Related: Trump's border tax could damage the US a lot more than a wall | Kenneth Rogoff Continue reading...

Fears about Donald Trump’s protectionist rhetoric prompt joint defence of open markets with admission that more help for those ‘left behind’ is neededFears that Donald Trump’s arrival in the White House is threatening a new era of protectionism have prompted a joint defence of trade from the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the World Trade Organisation.Warning that the role of trade in the global economy was at a critical juncture, the three multilateral bodies said the opening up of markets had been good for growth but admitted that action was needed to help “left behind” individuals and communities.Related: Global productivity slowdown risks creating instability, warns IMF Continue reading...

Economists expect official statistics will vindicate Bank of England’s worries about slump in consumer spendingFresh details on price rises and wage growth this week are expected to underline the rising pressures on UK household budgets as the pound’s sharp fall since the Brexit vote continues to stoke inflation.The Bank of England has warned the economy’s main engine of growth, consumer spending, will lose momentum this year as rising living costs eat into people’s budgets. Economists expect official figures on Tuesday will vindicate those worries, with inflation forecast to have reached its highest level for more than three years in March.Related: Sterling’s fall lifts UK exports, figures show Continue reading...

Brexit makes improving the performance of UK firms essential. The state needs to meet the challenge if the private sector won’tNo developed country has been immune to the slowdown in productivity growth since the financial crisis, but Britain has been particularly hard hit. Instead of productivity rising by around 2% a year, as was customary before 2007, more workers have been employed to produce virtually the same output.International comparisons show that the US, Germany and France are at least 20% more productive than the UK, and the gaps show no sign of closing after a lost decade that has left productivity 15% below where it would have been had the pre-2007 trend continued. Put another way, the economy would be in the region of £250bn bigger – and living standards markedly higher – had productivity growth not collapsed. Continue reading...

When John Major set up our global warming strategy, the doom-mongers said it would ruin living standards. New research shows how wrong they wereJust before the Rio Earth summit 25 years ago, John Major, in whose cabinet I then served as environment secretary, made a bold prediction: reducing Britain’s carbon emissions in line with recommendations of climate science would not, he said, harm our economy: “Our initial measures ... will bring a worthwhile economic payoff to the country, to business and to ordinary people.”This was a controversial statement at a time when solar energy, for example, was a costly technology better suited to spacecraft than British rooftops. And indeed the argument can still be heard that reducing greenhouse gas emissions will ruin our economies – even that it will return us to a pre-industrial living standard.Related: Margaret Thatcher: an unlikely green hero? | John VidalFigueres is to be commended for her vision. The rationale remains what the British government put forward 25 years ago Continue reading...

Stalling property prices are a chance to rebalance the UK economy towards manufacturing and exportsReady to go house hunting? Tradition has it that no sooner have the hot cross buns been buttered on Good Friday than potential buyers start the search for a new home. Estate agents look forward to Easter the way retailers relish Christmas, but perhaps with less exuberance this year than is customary.

Revolution, radicalism and rebellion dominate this year, as writers, journalists and academics look back on a century of political upheaval