Advances in artificial intelligence mean a second wave of change is approaching – and it is not the low-paid service sector where jobs are most at riskGuy Ryder is an old hand at Davos. The director general of the International Labour Organisation has seen it all: the years when the global business elite is brimful of confidence and the years, such as 2017, when the top 1% of the top 1% is fretful.Ryder detected parallels with 2009, when the global economy seemed to be heading for a second Great Depression. Eight years ago, the attendees were shaken by the banking collapse but showed little contrition. This year, they were alarmed by the populist anger that was evident in Brexit and Donald Trump’s arrival in the White House but couldn’t really understand why it was happening.This second group has sniffed the way the wind is blowing. Studies have shown that technological change rather than trade has been responsible for the vast majority of the jobs lost in manufacturing in the developed world. Put simply, machines have replaced humans. Robots have taken over factories. Continue reading...

Consumption - of cars, flights and more - is how most people measure progress, and campaigners must concentrate on reducing the harm this does. Back-to-nature idealism will surely failUrging people to stop consuming stuff in order to slow the rate of climate change is a gambit that is doomed to fail. It would be helpful if shoppers put off buying a suit or installing a new kitchen, but it’s not going to happen. Demonising those who fly to Barcelona for a long weekend is another tactic that will have almost no impact.It’s not for nothing that economists base many of their assumptions on populations having unlimited wants. Most people strain to acquire stuff that the rich have long taken for granted. Telling them to switch off this desire has never worked and is unlikely to do so now, even when the future of the planet is at stake. Continue reading...

Some in Whitehall were wary about the government showing its hand on industry. But next week’s policy unveiling will provide a welcome focusThe government is this week scheduled to unveil its industrial strategy for Britain. It promises to be a fascinating document. Although this industrial strategy has received far less publicity than Brexit, it could have a more significant long-term impact on Britain then leaving the European Union. But that impact depends on the government not only producing a substantial plan but also sticking to it over years and parliaments, which will not be an easy task.Until Theresa May made her speech on Brexit last week, there were growing fears in the business world that the industrial strategy could be a damp squib. It is understood that there have been splits within government about how detailed the industrial strategy should be – because of fears that it could show Britain’s hand too early in negotiations with the EU on Brexit. Continue reading...

Donald Trump is actually giving Mexican workers more reason to head to the US, not lessIn Mexico it is known as “el efecto Trump”: a barrage of taunts and tweets that rattle the economy and hammer the peso. For the new president, it is part of a strategy to pressure companies to move jobs back to the United States. Mexico’s job will be to suck it up, accept the millions of people Trump has promised to deport, and pay for the proposed border wall.Reality may soon disrupt this vision because Donald Trump, in one of the first great ironies of his presidency, has given impoverished Mexicans more reason to migrate to the US.The more jobs you destroy in Mexico, the more immigrants the American people will have.Think a little!Related: Ford cancels plans for Mexico plant as Donald Trump threatens to tax GM Continue reading...

Steve Mnuchin and Wilbur Ross are competent and knowledgable – they just don’t sound like they will lead the type of upheaval that Trump promised“We are transferring power … back to you, the people,” Donald Trump told the nation on Friday. “For too long, a small group in our nation’s capital has reaped the rewards of government, while the people have borne the cost. Washington flourished, but the people did not share in its wealth.” Not any more, he pledged.Well, now the work begins, and last week we got the first chance to see the men, Steve Mnuchin and Wilbur Ross, most charged with fulfilling Trump’s vow.Related: 'American carnage': Trump's vision casts shadow over day of pageantryRelated: Inside Trump Treasury nominee's past life as 'foreclosure king' of California Continue reading...

Conservative councillors want to raise council tax by 15%. So why aren’t Labour and the Lib Dems more enthusiastic?The people of Surrey have been invited to show the rest of Britain what they are made of. Sugar? Spice? All things nice? Either way, the leader of the county’s Conservative council, David Hodge, has done something politically bold and worthy of national attention.Related: Surrey confirms plans to raise council tax by 15%Related: Liverpool plans referendum on 10% council tax rise Continue reading...

UK chancellor tells WEF that Britain will reinvent itself if it has to, as Davos ends with comments from veteran diplomat Henry Kissinger

GDP growth improved to 6.8% but only after a 19% increase in public investment and a lighter touch on real estate borrowing

With fears about the Trump presidency, rising debt levels and an unwinding property boom, the world’s No 2 economy is set for an uncertain 2017China’s economy slowed further last year to expand at its weakest pace for quarter of a century, with warnings that it risks losing further momentum in 2017 as Donald Trump’s presidency creates new challenges for the trading superpower.The world’s second-largest economy grew 6.7% last year, according to China’s statistics office, meeting Beijing’s target range of 6.5-7% but the slowest growth since 1990.Related: My new year forecast: Trumpian uncertainty, and lots of it Continue reading...

This week two big banks, HSBC and UBS, honoured their threats about moving jobs from the UK. The grim reality is ‘hard’ Brexit will be tough for many of usThe tumult and the shouting dies. From hysterical prediction slowly emerges the grim reality. Now the prospect comes into view that the remainers’ Project Fear might just have been true after all. They just got the timing wrong.Related: Goldman Sachs stalls plan to move jobs to UK amid Brexit uncertaintyRelated: Is the City of London going to hell in a Brexit handcart? Continue reading...

Study shows all governments need to play a greater role in restructuring mining sector to compensate for automation effectsFrom a distance, everything looks normal at Rio Tinto’s Yandicoogina and Nammuldi mines in Pilbara, Western Australia. Huge trucks trundle along the mines’ reddish-brown terraced sides laden with high-grade iron ore. Back and forth, almost endlessly.Watch for long enough, however, and you’ll see that no-one ever steps out of the cab. No lunch stops. No toilet breaks. No change of shift. That’s because these house-sized trucks are being remotely operated by ‘drivers’ based 1,200 kilometres away in Perth.Related: Mining, manufacturing and fruit picking: can automation save Mackay jobs?Related: Revealed: Rio Tinto's plan to use drones to monitor workers' private livesRelated: Can democracy survive the fourth industrial revolution? Should it?Related: Revealed: Rio Tinto's plan to use drones to monitor workers' private lives Continue reading...

We’ve launched an all-party group, with leading thinkers from across society, to reject the flawed orthodoxy of shareholder value and trickle-down economicsThe debate taking place between the snow-topped peaks of Davos this week will be dominated by one issue and one issue alone, the surge in inequality. In a democracy, anger isn’t abstract. As both the vote for Brexit and the election of Donald Trump show, it turns up on polling day.In the US, new research shows that in the rust-belt states an incredible 40% of those born in 1980 are worse off than their parents. Here in the UK the gender pay gap still looms large – and as the Institute for Fiscal Studies revealed, there has been a four-fold increase in the number of men in low-paid, part-time work over the last 20 years. This represents a stark betrayal of the implicit intergenerational contract of the postwar years – that each successive generation would be better off than the preceding one. And that betrayal is by no means confined to the post-industrial interior of the US; it is in danger of becoming the social and economic condition of our age.Related: Bleak trend of low, part-time wages in UK is revealedRelated: It's time to target the top end of town and the obscene profits of the super-rich | Helen Szoke Continue reading...

PM says world’s biggest firms must pay taxes and treat workers fairly, and market forces alone will not deliver for peopleTheresa May has told the world’s biggest companies they need to start paying their taxes and treat their workers more fairly in order to address the concerns of those who feel left behind by globalisation.In a keynote speech to the World Economic Forum, the prime minister said governments could not rely on international market forces to deliver prosperity for everyone and action was needed to address the “deeply felt sense of economic inequality that has emerged in recent years”.Related: Davos 2017: Theresa May says globalisation must work for everyone - liveRelated: EU politicians and businesses warn May over 'difficult' BrexitRelated: This is Brexit poker - and Theresa May was right to up the stakes | Simon Jenkins Continue reading...

The perception that the president-elect is a business genius and too much focus on the Dow Jones have led to excessive optimismSpeculative markets have always been vulnerable to illusion. But seeing the folly in markets provides no clear advantage in forecasting outcomes, because changes in the force of the illusion are difficult to predict.In the US, two illusions have been important recently in financial markets. One is the carefully nurtured perception that President-elect Donald Trump is a business genius who can apply his deal-making skills to make America great again.Related: Trump is a conservative – but that won't stop him sending deficits soaring Continue reading...

International trade secretary says ‘dozens of countries’ are preparing to expand trading links with UK once it has left EUThe UK is already discussing informal trade deals with at least 12 countries, despite being notionally prevented from striking deals while still a member of the EU, according to Liam Fox’s international trade department.Related: Theresa May's Brexit wishlist – Politics Weekly podcastRelated: We’re not out to punish Britain, but you need to shed your illusions | Guy Verhofstadt Continue reading...

British foreign secretary evokes dark period of French history as he warns François Hollande against trying to hurt UKDowning Street was forced to come to the defence of the foreign secretary Boris Johnson after he warned the French president, François Hollande, not to respond to Brexit by trying to “administer punishment beatings” in the manner of “some world war two movie”.The foreign secretary evoked the darkest period of France’s recent history as he rejected comments by an adviser to Hollande who said Britain should not expect a better trading relationship outside Europe than it currently enjoys inside.Related: Britain's Brexit deal must be inferior to EU membership, MEPs told - Politics liveYet more abhorrent & deeply unhelpful comments from @BorisJohnson which PM May should condemn. https://t.co/GdVQh0AMX1People "offended" by The Foreign Secretary's comments today are humourless, deliberately obtuse, snowflakes-it's a witty metaphor #getalifeRelated: MPs will not block May's deal for UK to leave EU, says David Davis Continue reading...

As many people suspected, and as is becoming more and more obvious, the UK, with its sweatshop economy, weak productivity and huge trade deficit, is going to find itself in very chilly waters after we leave the EU (‘Unsettled’ Brexit will hit UK growth, 17 January). If we succeed in making trade treaties they will mostly be on very unfavourable terms, as we will be on the weak side in most cases (especially with China, the US and the EU). It also becomes more and more obvious that in order to achieve even unfavourable terms we will have to submit to being dominated by big international companies, which will lead to the reintroduction of TTIP-style disputes procedures, a bonfire of labour and environmental protections and policies only acceptable to the hard right of the Conservative party. Brexit is wrong and dangerous: the only way forward is to reverse it.

Rolling coverage of the second day of the World Economic Forum in Davos

Prof Ted Malloch, tipped to be American ambassador to EU, says The Art of the Deal reveals how president-elect’s mind worksThe US academic tipped to be Donald Trump’s ambassador to the EU has told British government advisers they should read the president-elect’s business book The Art of the Deal before starting trade negotiations with the US.Prof Ted Malloch, a long-time supporter of Trump who will fly out on Wednesday to attend his inauguration, is understood to have been speaking to Downing Street staff after Theresa May’s speech on leaving the EU. Continue reading...

The announcement that parliament will get a vote on a final deal was welcome. But the prime minister’s speech does nothing to lift the fog of uncertaintyThe big fear with Theresa May’s Brexit speech was that the pound would tank and that the markets would respond as negatively as they had to most of her previous utterances. The opposite happened, and it rose to $1.24, up almost 3% on the day, after it had already risen on Tuesday morning on news that inflation had reached a two-year high (it fell back a cent today).The news that the markets welcomed so warmly was that both houses of parliament would get a vote on the final deal and that May will not seek partial or associate membership of the European Union. That will prevent a bad deal, forced through by the Brexit-at-any-price Eurosceptics, which might have been on the cards without such a vote. Continue reading...

IMF head wins support from outgoing US vice-president Joe Biden as she uses American term for working people in demanding action over rising inequalityThe head of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, has called for urgent action to tackle a “middle-class crisis” hitting working people as she warned that inequality, distrust and a lack of hope were fuelling growing populism.Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Lagarde said she had first highlighted the dangers of rising inequality four years ago but had been ignored. “I hope people will listen now,” she said.Related: Davos 2017: Joe Biden calls on richest 1% to pull their weight, and criticises Russia - live updates Continue reading...

Rightwing writers, ranging from conservative to lunatic fringe across all genres, have long been a lucrative books market. Will the new era see it grow?He compares feminism to cancer, called transgender people “retarded” and once labelled a BuzzFeed reporter a “thick-as-pig-shit media Jew”. So when “alt-right” figurehead Milo Yiannopoulos, who relentlessly delights in wild provocation, landed a $250,000 (£203,000) book deal with Simon & Schuster, the publisher understandably – and almost immediately – issued a statement distancing itself from the views of the writers they publish: “The opinions expressed therein belong to our authors, and do not reflect either a corporate viewpoint or the views of our employees.”Related: UK publishers shy away from 'alt-right' star Milo Yiannopoulos Continue reading...

Fewer people are in work and wage growth has slowed, latest figures showBritain’s labour market showed signs of slowing in November as the number of people in work declined and wage growth slowed for the first time since August.The number of people in employment fell by 9,000 to 31.8 million while month-on-month wage growth, including bonuses, dropped from 2.9% to 2.8%.Related: Pound soars but FTSE falls after Theresa May's Brexit speech Continue reading...

Trade has led to higher living standards in Asia and elsewhere. Are globalisation’s critics against eradicating global poverty?I was recently in beautiful Chile for a Futures Congress, and I had a chance to travel south to the very tip of Latin America. I also recently made a BBC radio documentary called Fixing Globalisation, in which I criss-crossed the UK in search of ideas for improving certain aspects of it and discussed topical issues with well-known experts. In both cases, I saw things that convinced me that it is past time for someone to come to globalisation’s defence.Chile today is Latin America’s richest country, with per capita GDP of about $23,000 – similar to that of central European countries. This is quite an achievement for a country that depends so heavily on copper production, and it sets Chile apart from many of its neighbours. Like many other countries, Chile is facing economic challenges, and its growth rate leaves something to be desired; but it also has many promising opportunities beyond its borders.Related: Xi Jinping signals China will champion free trade if Trump builds barriers Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the opening day of the World Economic Forum in Davos

Trump and Farage have harnessed public rage at gross inequality. Beating them means closing the wealth gapA good measure of the topsy-turviness of our political economy could be found at Davostoday. As the billionaires gathered for the World Economic Forum, the toast of the Alps was Xi Jinping. The first Chinese president ever to address the summit, his speech this morning was bound to be a big moment. Just as striking, though, was what Mr Xi said. The general secretary of the Communist party of China launched into an eloquent defence of openness and free markets. It was, as several observers remarked, the kind of speech one might expect to come from an American president. Except the US president-elect, Donald Trump, will not be popping in to Switzerland this week and won his new job partly because of his protectionism. He was at it again this week, threatening BMW with swingeing import tariffs if it followed plans to build a new plant in Mexico, rather than America. It did not sound like an empty threat.What’s going on here? One answer lies in the inequality statistics published this week by Oxfam, which show that eight men, six of them American, own as much wealth as the 3.5 billion poorest people in the world. To quote Bernie Sanders: “If that’s not insanity I don’t know what is.” Extreme economics breeds extreme politics: the campaigns for Brexit and Mr Trump both harnessed anger at the vast gap between the super-rich and the rest of society. One of the ironies of this anti-elitist politics is that it has been spearheaded by people who would normally count as part of an elite. Mr Trump is a billionaire property developer, Nigel Farage is an alumnus of Dulwich college who worked in the City. These people are effectively squatting a space in forward-looking politics – a space that has gone almost unoccupied by the political mainstream. Continue reading...

Sterling makes biggest one-day gain against dollar since 1998, but analysts say rally likely to be temporaryThe pound has clocked up its biggest one-day gain against the dollar since 1998 as traders seized on Theresa May’s pledge that parliament would vote on any Brexit deal and welcomed some clarity on the government’s plans for leaving the EU.The FTSE 100 headed in the other direction, recording its biggest daily fall since the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote in June. The share index has been boosted for several months by the fall in the pound, which helps exporters and those companies with overseas earnings, and some of that effect was unwound on Tuesday as the pound jumped almost 3%.Related: What do business leaders think of Theresa May's Brexit speech? Continue reading...

The two-year window in which pay rises briefly outstripped inflation is well and truly over. Time to brace for higher prices and static wagesInflation is about to do at home what currency movements have done to your holiday money abroad – devalue the pound in your pocket.Rising air fares, more expensive food and a bump in the cost of fuel at the pumps pushed inflation to 1.6% in December, effectively ending a brief two-year period when wages outstripped price rises by a wide margin.Related: UK inflation hits two-year high at 1.6%Related: Apple increases App Store prices by 25% following Brexit vote Continue reading...

US president-elect’s protectionism and populism stir debate and soul-searching as a sense of change fills the Alpine airHamlet without the prince. That, bluntly, is how Davos feels this year.The usual caravan of business leaders, academics, clerics, journalists and celebs has trekked up into the high Alps for their annual January get-together, but the man everyone is talking about is 3,000 miles away awaiting his inauguration in Washington later this week.Related: Davos 2017: Chinese president Xi defends globalisation - live updates Continue reading...

Air fares, imported raw materials, food and petrol price rises plus Brexit-fuelled fall in pound will squeeze family finances in 2017Inflation has jumped to the highest rate for two-and-a-half years, hitting 1.6% as the pound’s sharp drop since the Brexit vote continues to push up costs in the UK.Official figures for December showed air fares, food prices and fuel all helped to drive the rise from 1.2% in November. The December rate, as measured on the consumer prices index (CPI), was the highest since July 2014 and higher than forecasts for 1.4% in a Reuters poll of economists.Related: UK inflation: now it's the pound in your pocket being devaluedRelated: UK economy is overheating and veering towards stagflationRelated: Davos 2017: Chinese president Xi and Trump adviser speak – Day One live Continue reading...

The president elect praises Brexit, cosies up to Putin and promises to take an axe to Nato and established trading systems. Prepare for a remake of the 1930sWho still wants to bemoan the demise of the “special relationship”? Enter Donald Trump, Britain’s latest best friend. “I think Brexit is going to end up being a great thing,” he assured the UK by way of the Times on Monday. Then he held out a big, juicy bone to Theresa May – a trade deal with the United States. “We’re gonna work very hard to get it done quickly, good for both sides.”Related: Trump doesn’t let facts get in the way of immigration scare stories. He’s not alone | Diane TaylorDoes this sound like a remake of the 1920s and 1930s? It does Continue reading...

Governor says consumers are powering economy through Brexit uncertainty but debt is increasingThe Bank of England is keeping a close watch on consumer spending amid signs households are dipping into their savings and amassing debts to keep spending in the face of rising inflation.Mark Carney, the Bank governor, said consumer spending had held up since last summer’s vote to leave the EU but he reiterated a warning that living costs were likely to rise on the back of a weak pound and squeeze households’ real incomes.Related: UK credit binge approaching levels not seen since 2008 crash Continue reading...

Soup kitchens have sprung up to provide meals for some of the estimated 3.5 million children officially living in poverty in one of world’s richest countries

As David Marquand points out, the UK is a multinational state and two parts of it, Scotland and Northern Ireland, voted to remain in the European UnionDavid Marquand asserts that “there is no such place as Britain” (How can Britain exit the EU? Britain doesn’t really exist, 13 January). If Britain is not a nation, to what nation does the “national” refer in “National Rail”, “National Trust”, “national debt” etc? No Welsh embassy, Scottish passport, Northern Irish armed force, or English international dialling code exists. All nations are artificial, invented constructs. The UK is no less a country than each of its constituent nations.It is perfectly possible for a nation state to be multinational. Marquand calls France a nation state, yet nationalist Bretons assert their own national identity. Basques and Catalans constitute different national groups but there is no doubt that the Kingdom of Spain, like the United Kingdom, is itself a country. Continue reading...

Less money, fewer teachers, little transparency and almost no accountability. A child’s education is too important for thisThe last few weeks have been all about the NHS crisis, but new figures published today reveal the stark cash situation facing schools in England. Forty nine out of every 50 schools, according to research by the Association of School and College Leaders and the Secondary Heads Association, will see a real-term per pupil funding fall between now and 2020; some schools lose up to 17% of their per pupil funding. That is the sharpest cut to schools’ budgets since the 1970s. The scale of today’s problem was illustrated last month by the National Audit Office, which showed the average secondary academy is in the red by more than £350,000.Education lacks the immediate warning lights of health: hospitals being forced to divert ambulances, cancel cancer operations and treat patients on trolleys in corridors. But these funding pressures are no less damaging than those facing the health service. They jeopardise the significant progress made in recent decades: nine out of 10 schools are now rated as good or outstanding. Without a sensible settlement inequalities will widen. Most notably, there is huge geographic imbalance in school quality. Children living in London have a far better chance of attending a good school than in Liverpool, where almost half of schools are inadequate or “require improvement”. In the northern powerhouse of Manchester the figure is one in three. This is a fundamental issue for social mobility. Continue reading...

FTSE 100 ends record 14-day winning streak as Theresa May prepares to make speech unveiling plansThe pound fell again on Monday – dipping below $1.20 at one point – as concern mounted that the UK was heading for a “hard” Brexit from the European Union and its single market, a day before a speech by Theresa May on the government’s plans.Some newspapers have billed the prime minister’s speech on Tuesday as a push away from preferential EU single market access and a hardening of the UK’s stance toward an economic bloc that accounts for roughly half its exports and imports.Related: Norway’s $885bn-nil advantage in Britain’s sea of social troubles Continue reading...

Performance better than expected, fund says as it cuts 2018 outlook and cites Trump protectionism as risk to global economyThe International Monetary Fund has upgraded its forecasts for the UK economy this year after the latest signs that businesses and consumers have shrugged off the Brexit vote.Unveiling its new forecasts on the eve of a key speech by Theresa May on the Brexit process, the Washington-based fund also cut the outlook for 2018, reflecting widespread uncertainty over Britain’s future outside the EU.Related: Sterling skids to three-month low on hard Brexit concerns Continue reading...

US leaders from Reagan to Obama have used borrowing to fund spending, and the president-elect is likely to be little differentIt is a post-financial-crisis myth that austerity-minded conservative governments always favour fiscal prudence, while redistribution-oriented progressives view large deficits as the world’s biggest free lunch. This simplistic perspective, while perhaps containing a grain of truth, badly misses the true underlying political economy of deficits.The fact is that whenever one party has firm control of government, it has a powerful incentive to borrow to finance its priorities, knowing that it won’t necessarily be the one to foot the bill. So expect US President-elect Donald Trump’s administration, conservative or not, to make aggressive use of budget deficits to fund its priorities for taxes and spending.Related: China voices economic fears about Donald Trump presidency Continue reading...

Retail therapy for seasonal gloom is a ploy dreamed up by advertisers – the myth that happiness can be bought has the potential to be disastrousWaking up today, on so-called Blue Monday, the “most depressing day of the year”, you may already be aware that this concept is based on a fraud. An almost deliciously spurious mathematical formula was dreamed up by a PR agency, given the veneer of academic rigour by attaching the name of a lecturer at a further education college, and a media phenomenon was born. More than a decade’s worth of articles and social media memes have at turns reinforced and defied the Blue Monday myth, and it is often now held up as a case study of bad science.It is, of course, laughable to have a formula where W stands for weather and days-since-Christmas is raised to the power of Q, the days-since-we-quit-our-new-year-resolutions. But the driver behind this mockable maths is a much more sinister lie, one from which many struggle to escape 365 days of the year. Continue reading...

Rising inflation may force the Bank of England to increase interest rates and put the brakes on growthThe UK economy performed surprisingly well in 2016. Indeed, when looking across the OECD economies, it is hard to find a better performer on key metrics such as growth and employment. However, when looking beneath the surface, the UK economy is, in fact, overheating. Already on the rise, the result is going to be the largest surge in inflation for many years, squeezing household budgets and placing the Bank of England in a bind largely of its own making.Already weak prior to the surprising Brexit referendum result, sterling declined sharply thereafter and has not recovered since. Year over year the pound is down about 20% against both the dollar and the euro. Combined with the sharp 70% rise in oil prices over the same time frame, UK energy and food costs are set to soar this year. These developments alone will push up UK consumer price index by 1 to 2 percentage points.Related: UK firms brace for further Brexit price rises, surveys showUK has been living on borrowed time and borrowed money ever since the financial crisis struck in 2008 Continue reading...

Sterling’s weakness since Brexit vote is pushing up prices of fuel, food and clothes, official figures to showInflation is set to hit its highest level in more than two years this week, according to economists, as the sharp drop in sterling since the referendum fuels a rise in the cost of living.Official figures due to be published on Tuesday are expected to show that fuel, food, air fares and clothing prices have driven the headline rate to 1.4% in December, from 1.2% in November. If economists polled by Reuters are correct, the rate would be the highest since August 2014, when the consumer prices index was 1.5%. Continue reading...

PM is expected to build on chancellor’s combative language by highlighting other potentially lucrative deals Britain can seekTheresa May will aim to strike a defiant tone in her upcoming Brexit speech on the risks to the rest of the EU of giving Britain a raw deal, echoing the combative approach taken by the chancellor.In a speech by the prime minister on Tuesday that will be watched closely in EU capitals, Downing Street is keen to impress that there are potentially lucrative economic opportunities elsewhere, weeks before the UK is expected to trigger article 50. Continue reading...

North Sea oil could have helped tackle the NHS crisis and pension liabilities by contributing to a sovereign wealth fundOne of the most famous pieces of football commentary came at the end of a match in Oslo more than 35 years ago in which unfancied Norway beat England 2-1. Few fans could now name the Norwegian commentator, Bjørge Lillelien, but plenty remember the rant and how it ended: “Maggie Thatcher, can you hear me? Your boys took one hell of a beating.”The humiliation for the boys with three lions on their shirts took place in 1981 during the early stages of a North Sea oil boom that benefited both Norway and Britain. Norway decided that it would set up a sovereign wealth fund – a piggy bank for the people – so future generations would reap the benefits of the unexpected bonanza. Britain did not. Continue reading...

The prime minister’s simultaneous promises to exit the EU and look after the interests of Remainers simply cannot be given credenceTheresa May is hopelessly conflicted. Quite simply, she cannot reconcile her promise to look after the interests of those who voted Remain with her commitment to a hard Brexit. To put it another way, she cannot look after the interests of the 72% of “the people” (that is, including those under 18) who did not “speak” on 23 June.For hard Brexit is what her policy is. By repeatedly placing controls over immigration above continued membership of the European customs union and the single market, she makes it abundantly clear that she has been captured by the Brexiters. Continue reading...

After 16 days and 7,456 miles, the locomotive’s arrival heralds the dawn of a new commercial eraWhen the East Wind locomotive rumbles into east London this week, it will be at the head of 34 carriages full of socks, bags and wallets for London’s tourist souvenir shops, as well as the dust and grime accumulated through eight countries and 7,456 miles.The train will be the first to make the 16-day journey from Yiwu in west China to Britain, reviving the ancient trading Silk Road route and shunting in a new era of UK-China relations.Related: David Baddiel on the Silk RoadRelated: Eurasia is an idea whose time has come around again Continue reading...

The world is full of scary new problems for delegates at this year’s World Economic Forum - not that old ones like climate and poverty have gone awayDonald Trump’s US election victory and the UK’s vote to leave the European Union will cast a long shadow over the global elite’s annual gathering in the Swiss ski resort of Davos this week.This year, 3,000 politicians, business leaders, economists, entrepreneurs, charity leaders and celebrities will head to the World Economic Forum (WEF) to discuss the state of the world. As usual there’ll be big speeches, ultra-tight security, and experts in every field under the wintry sun. There’ll also be plenty of champagne and canapes for delegates gathering in expensive hotels to discuss issues such as inequality and the backlash against globalisation. Continue reading...

New research shows that developing countries send trillions of dollars more to the west than the other way around. Why?We have long been told a compelling story about the relationship between rich countries and poor countries. The story holds that the rich nations of the OECD give generously of their wealth to the poorer nations of the global south, to help them eradicate poverty and push them up the development ladder. Yes, during colonialism western powers may have enriched themselves by extracting resources and slave labour from their colonies – but that’s all in the past. These days, they give more than $125bn (£102bn) in aid each year – solid evidence of their benevolent goodwill.This story is so widely propagated by the aid industry and the governments of the rich world that we have come to take it for granted. But it may not be as simple as it appears.The flow of money from rich countries to poor countries pales in comparison to the flow that runs in the other directionRelated: Forget 'developing' poor countries, it's time to 'de-develop' rich countries Continue reading...

Almost 80% of delegates at the gathering of the world’s rich and powerful in the Swiss mountains next week will be menKlaus Schwab, the World Economic Forum (WEF) founder whose headquarters are the chrome and glass of a Bond villain’s lair, introduced this year’s event by saying: “The world around us is changing at unprecedented speed.” But it seems nothing has changed when it comes to the lack of women at Davos.Five years ago, when I was the Guardian’s women’s editor, I was sent to report on gender diversity at Davos. I dragged my short, not very masculine, body to the oddly bleak Swiss village to watch the world’s rich and powerful consort.Related: Army of staff descends on Davos to serve WEF super-rich Continue reading...

Exclusive: minutes of Michel Barnier’s meeting with senior MEPs reveal he wants 27 member states to have easy access to London’s financial institutionsThe EU’s chief negotiator in the Brexit talks has shown the first signs of backing away from his hardline, no-compromise approach after admitting he wants a deal with Britain that will guarantee the other 27 member states continued easy access to the City.Michel Barnier wants a “special” relationship with the City of London after Britain has left the bloc, according to unpublished minutes seen by the Guardian that hint at unease about the costs of Brexit on continental Europe.When asked on equivalence I said: EU would need special vigilance on financial stability risk, not special deal to access the City @guardianRelated: UK to begin talks with New Zealand on post-Brexit trade dealRelated: Theresa May to deliver long-awaited Brexit speech on Tuesday Continue reading...