Brexit and exodus of foreign workers may force employers to pay more, but there are no guarantees

Could this young Dutchman, hailed as a visionary, galvanise the left with his radical plan for a borderless future in which we are all paid for working less?As liberal democracy seems to be crumbling under the weight of widespread despondency, some hardline opinions are in danger of becoming received wisdoms. In the global market, we are told, we must work harder and improve productivity. The welfare state has become too large and we need to cut back on benefits. Immigration is out of control and borders need to be strengthened.The choice seems to be either to accept this new paradigm or risk the likes of Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders gaining power. The centre ground is being dragged to the left and right, and collapsing down the middle. Meanwhile progressive politics has returned to its comfort zone, busily opposing everything and offering almost nothing. Where is the vision, the ambition, the belief?I’ve heard for years that my ideas are unrealistic. You want to stick to the status quo? How’s that working out?Related: State handouts for all? Europe set to pilot universal basic incomes Continue reading...

It is not just the British economy at stake: the absurdities and evasions of the Leave campaign are jeopardising hard-won stability across the continentThere are many problems afflicting the British economy, and many afflicting the European Union. The trouble with Brexit is that it is almost guaranteed to aggravate both.Although I continue to emphasise the economic damage likely to result from cutting ourselves off from half of our export market, in common with many Remainers I am also exercised by the geopolitical risks in any move that encourages the current outbreak of nationalism in Europe. Continue reading...

Our economy is at a watershed. We need a new capitalism that will stop firms thinking in the short-termIt may have been nine years ago, but the financial crisis continues to throw its long shadow over Britain. Last week, RBS, at the time of the crisis the world’s biggest bank, announced another stunning loss of £7bn – so chalking up cumulatively some £58bn of losses since 2008.It is now even clearer than it was at the time that had the government not stepped in, taking a vast £45bn stake, RBS would have gone bust, threatening a more widespread banking panic with cascading consequences hard to contain. At the very least, Britain would have had an even deeper recession – and much slower recovery. At worst, there would have been a full-scale depression.British companies, because of their fragmented shareholder base, are under pressure to provide good short-term results Continue reading...

Policymaker Gertan Vlieghe shocked MPs with his admission about the limitations of forecasting. But it’s not hard to see where some hotspots areIt was like a private confession broadcast to the nation. When Gertjan Vlieghe cast his eyes down at the desk in front of him and said “we are probably not going to forecast the next financial crisis”, it was a moment of sorrow and self-reproach rarely seen from a Bank of England policymaker.Vlieghe is a member of the Bank’s monetary policy committee, alongside governor Mark Carney and seven others who set the UK’s base interest rate. Continue reading...

Progressive parties have overwhelmingly failed to develop alternative policies. Listening to a modern progressive politician is like taking a tepid bathThe 10th anniversary of the global financial crisis looms this year, which means it’s almost a decade since neoliberal economics began to fall apart. The crisis spawned a global recession, the near collapse of global finance and the subsequent eurozone crisis as governments incurred huge debts amid efforts to rescue the hapless banking industry.The then Australian prime minister, Kevin Rudd, observed in the immediate aftermath:The current crisis is the culmination of a 30-year domination of economic policy by a free-market ideology that has been variously called neoliberalism, economic liberalism, economic fundamentalism, Thatcherism or the Washington consensus. The central thrust of this ideology has been that government activity should be constrained, and ultimately replaced, by market forces.Related: We are unlikely to spot next financial crisis, Bank of England official saysRelated: Neoliberalism – the ideology at the root of all our problemsRelated: You’re witnessing the death of neoliberalism – from within | Aditya Chakrabortty Continue reading...

Flawed takeover bids, bad lending, and a tower of legal bills have left the Royal Bank of Scotland deep in the redSir Howard Davies, chair of Royal Bank of Scotland, described the £7bn loss the bank rang up last year as “stark”. But it is just a fraction of the bank’s towering total losses of £58bn over the nine years since it was bailed out by the taxpayer. And the bank will rack up even more losses this year.Related: RBS braced for multi-billion-pound settlement for loan-misselling scandalRelated: Treasury plan may allow RBS to avoid selling 300 branches Continue reading...

We must restore the principle of parliamentary sovereignty – Theresa May does not have an open-ended mandateFormer UK prime minister Tony Blair’s recent call for voters to think again about leaving the EU, echoed in parliamentary debates ahead of the government’s official launch of the process in March, is an emperor’s new clothes moment. Although Blair is now an unpopular figure, his voice, like that of the child in Hans Christian Andersen’s story, is loud enough to carry above the cabal of flatterers assuring Theresa May that her naked gamble with Britain’s future is clad in democratic finery.The importance of Blair’s speech can be gauged by the hysterical overreaction to his suggestion of reopening the Brexit debate, even from supposedly objective media: “It will be seen by some as a call to arms – Tony Blair’s Brexit insurrection,” according to the BBC.Related: Blair has a far bigger vision than saving us from Brexit | Matthew d’Ancona Continue reading...

I lived through the 30s and 80s and know the only way to beat the tyranny of austerity is through defiance. As long as you can love, there’s a purpose to lifeI have lived a very long time. Tomorrow, it will be exactly 94 years ago that a midwife with a love of harsh gin and rolled cigarettes delivered me into my mother’s tired, working-class arms. Neither the midwife nor my mother would have expected me to live to almost 100 because my ancestors had lived in poverty for as long as there was recorded history in Yorkshire.Nowadays, when wealth is considered wisdom, too often old age is derided, disrespected or feared, perhaps because it is the last stage in our human journey before death. But in this era of Trump and Brexit, ignoring the assets of knowledge that are acquired over a long life could be as lethal as disregarding a dead canary in a coal mine.Related: Life expectancy forecast to exceed 90 years in coming decadesRelated: Living to 90 and beyond? No thanks | Michele Hanson Continue reading...

I began studying economics at night school in Leeds in the 1950s and continued, at various institutions, as an external student of London University. Our courses were broadly, but not uncritically, Keynesian. We abjured fancy equations and sprinkled our essays with phrases like “a tendency to” and “pressure towards” this or that as a consequence of some other event. As a teacher I have tried to keep reasonably up to date, and learned in the early 70s, for example, to regard most monetarist nonsense as the fantasies of “Friedmaniacs”.With this background, and aware of the influence on our leaders of Oxford’s PPE (philosophy, politics and economics) course, I have often wondered what on earth they taught them. Andy Beckett’s article (The degree that runs Britain, 23 February) gives the answer. PPE graduates are “intellectually flexible”. Or, to put it another way, they sway with the wind. And the winds of monetarism and arrogant attempts to make human behaviours as subject to mathematical predictions as the laws of physics, have captured economics academia for the past 40 years. Conservative, Labour and, to our eternal shame, Liberal Democrats have been equally culpable, as the damage done to the bottom 20% in this country, and to 80% of the population of Greece, so clearly demonstrates. Continue reading...

Your article (Pension changes could cost 11m Britons thousands of pounds, 21 February) says 75% of pension schemes use the retail price index (RPI). But all the public-sector schemes, which must be more than 25%, as well as many in the private sector – eg BT, BA – have used the consumer price index (CPI) for years. The article says RPI is usually greater than CPI; in fact it is virtually always greater because of the different way they are calculated – it’s called the formula effect. To cut a long and complicated story short, RPI may overstate inflation by about 0.2% on average but CPI understates it by about 0.8%.Over time that’s a big difference and will of course affect future pensioners (today’s young) more than it will current pensioners – this is not a baby boomer issue. Basically CPI was never meant to be a real measure of inflation; rather it was a way of comparing inflation in EU states. Its adoption by the government as the measure of inflation rises – on benefits as well as pensions – since 2010 is basically a mendacious scam.

Britain loses top spot as ONS revises down annual growth to 1.8%, from an initial estimate of 2%Germany overtook the UK as the fastest growing among the G7 states during 2016. Europe’s largest economy expanded at the fastest rate in five years, showing growth of 1.9% last year.The expansion pushed Britain into second place among the G7 industrialised nations, after the Office for National Statistics revised down annual UK growth to 1.8%, from an initial estimate of 2%.Related: Germany overtakes UK to become fastest-growing G7 economy in 2016 - business liveGerman economy was marked by strong and steady growth during 2016, with GDP increasing 1.9% - highest rate of GDP growth among G7 countries. Continue reading...

Heather Stewart is joined by Andrew Lilico, Ann Pettifor, Jonathan Portes, Rachel Reeves and Vince Cable for an extended discussion at a Guardian Live event in LondonSubscribe and review: iTunes, Soundcloud, Audioboom, Mixcloud, Acast & Stitcher and join the discussion on Facebook and TwitterThere’s a word that’s suddenly part of almost every political discussion going on in the democratic world: populism. Continue reading...

Economists get it wrong because they don’t understand our reactions to uncertain situations such as our exit from the EUEarly last month, Andy Haldane, chief economist at the Bank of England, blamed“irrational behaviour” for the failure of the BoE’s recent forecasting models. The failure to spot this irrationality had led policymakers to forecast that the British economy would slow after last June’s Brexit referendum. Instead, British consumers have been on a heedless spending spree since the vote to leave the European Union; and, no less illogically, construction, manufacturing, and services have recovered.Haldane offers no explanation for this burst of irrational behaviour. Nor can he: to him, irrationality simply means behaviour that is inconsistent with the forecasts derived from the BoE’s model.Related: We are unlikely to spot next financial crisis, Bank of England official says Continue reading...

Leaked document suggests Indian tariffs on scotch and Theresa May’s visa rules for skilled Indians had been impeding progressThe EU believes it may stand a better chance of striking a free trade deal with India after the UK leaves the union, despite the importance Britain attaches to trade with its old colony.A document drawn up by MEPs on the powerful trade committee analysing the impact of Brexit on the EU’s trade talks around the world suggests India’s desire to maintain tariffs on scotch whisky has hindered progress on a EU-India deal.Related: Trade between UK and India to suffer double hit, says business chief Continue reading...

All the day’s economic and financial news, as a second estimate of UK GDP shows faster growth than first thought

Two former members of the Bank of England’s interest rate-setting committee discuss the outlook for the UK economyProfessor of economics at Dartmouth College, New Hampshire, and former member of the Bank’s MPC from June 2006 to May 2009Related: Brexit economy: can consumers can keep shoring up the UK? Continue reading...

The latest monthly Guardian analysis finds cracks showing in the picture of resilience seen since the vote to leave the EU• Help fund our journalism by becoming a Guardian supporterRising fuel and food prices are eating into household budgets as the impact of the Brexit vote on the value of the pound pushes up inflation, according to a Guardian analysis that casts doubt over how much longer consumers can continue to shore up the UK economy.

Meeting between Angela Merkel and Christine Lagarde could end impasse – though austerity is unlikely to endKnocked off the front pages by Brexit and Donald Trump, Greece is back on the agenda. The country’s two most important creditors will meet in Berlin on Wednesday when the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, hosts the head of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde.It could be a fateful meeting. Europe and the IMF have been at loggerheads for months over whether Greece will ever be able to repay its debts – a disagreement that has stopped the Washington-based fund from signing up to a €86bn-bailout programme crafted by EU leaders in July 2015. Merkel and other European leaders, who face elections, are anxious to bring the IMF on board, to persuade sceptical voters the bailout is credible.Related: Greece standoff over €86bn bailout eases after Brussels deal Continue reading...

The Treasury committee have questioned Bank of England governor Mark Carney, chief economist Andy Haldane, and policymakers Gertjan Vlieghe and Ian McCafferty

MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe tells MPs that central bank’s financial models ‘are just not that good’ for predicting even a recessionThe Bank of England is unlikely to predict the next financial crisis, according to one of the central bank’s leading policymakers, who said economic models were unable to provide flawless forecasts for the UK economy.Monetary policy committee member Gertjan Vlieghe said it was impossible for the Bank to forecast a recession, let alone the next crash, and no amount of fine-tuning models of the way the modern economy operates would change that harsh reality.Related: Chief economist of Bank of England admits errors in Brexit forecasting Continue reading...

Borrowing bill hits lowest January level in 17 years, putting chancellor in position to ease some austerity plansA boost in self-assessment tax receipts and a bumper flow of capital gains tax to the exchequer has sent the government’s borrowing bill to its lowest January level in 17 years.The boost in January’s tax receipts is expected to put the chancellor, Philip Hammond, in a position to ease some of the Treasury’s planned austerity in the next financial year when he stands up to deliver his first full budget in a fortnight.Related: UK tax burden will soar to highest level for 30 years, warns IFSRelated: UK tax burden will soar to highest level for 30 years, warns IFS Continue reading...

The same forces fuelling the rise of hate groups and crime in America are operating in Brexit BritainCrimes perpetrated on the basis of hate are nothing new. They are always with us. The levels, and the groups targeted, tend to ebb and flow with the political tides. However, the recent waves of rightwing populism in the UK and elsewhere have unleashed a hail of such incidents and emboldened those who provoke or endorse them.In the US, where each new day brings instability and fear under a presidency that has made some of the most offensive tropes around race and immigration mainstream, the latest annual analysis from the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) on “hate groups” makes for stark reading. They are defined as having “beliefs or practices that attack or malign an entire class of people, typically for their immutable characteristics”. The SPLC has tracked hate crimes and groups for decades. Its latest report reveals that the number of hate groups rose for the second consecutive year in 2016. Continue reading...

All the day’s economic and financial news, including the unravelling of Kraft Heinz’s pursuit of Unilever and a Greek bailout meeting

CBI finds manufacturers’ concerns about inflation at highest levels in six years despite total orders hitting two-year highBritain’s manufacturers fear the rising cost of raw materials will soon dent a robust recovery since the Brexit vote that has included total orders hitting a two-year high.A survey of the sector found suggested that concerns over inflation were at their highest level for six years as firms said the weak pound was increasing the cost of imports, forcing them to raise prices or accept a severe squeeze on profits. Continue reading...

What the US president says and what he tweets can only be countered effectively if we take it seriously and resist itIn barely a month, the new US president has managed to spread chaos and uncertainty – and a degree of fear that would make any terrorist proud – at a dizzying pace. Not surprisingly, citizens and leaders in business, civil society, and government are struggling to respond appropriately and effectively.Any view regarding the way forward is necessarily provisional, as Donald Trump has not yet proposed detailed legislation, and Congress and the courts have not fully responded to his barrage of executive orders. But recognition of uncertainty is not a justification for denial.Related: Trump’s honeymoon with the stock market will soon be over | Nouriel RoubiniRelated: Trump's changed stance on Nato, will he sober up about IMF and WTO? | Barry Eichengreen Continue reading...

Chancellor’s March budget will show revised forecasts in short term, according to EY Item ClubBritain’s economic growth and borrowing levels will both be better than previously expected when the chancellor gives his budget next month, according to a report.The economic forecasting group EY Item Club said stronger-than-expected tax receipts meant the Office for Budget Responsibility was likely to cut its borrowing forecast for the current year by £3bn to £65bn on budget day. The fiscal watchdog was also likely to revise its GDP forecast up from 1.4% to 1.6%, or 1.7%, it said. Continue reading...

Savings rates have never been so low, but with a spread of sensible investments your portfolio can still deliver good returnsAs if savers needed to be told, it is a miserable time for anyone hoping to make money from their nest egg. With rates in the doldrums, the news last week that inflation has reached its highest point in the past two-and-a-half years means many cash savers are now losing money in real terms.Added to that, having a punt on premium bonds, the UK’s favourite flutter, is also set to become less appealing. In May the proportion of the total amount invested which is given out in prizes will be reduced, resulting in fewer big prizes. National Savings & Investments (NS&I) also announced it was cutting rates on three other products. Continue reading...

Economic indicators point to a prolonged slump in consumer spending, and as prices rise real income will fallAll things considered, it could hardly have gone better for Britain’s retailers in 2016. Shops and online outlets were fully braced for a big hit to activity in the period after the EU referendum but it didn’t happen. Consumers spent in the summer. They spent in the autumn and they spent at Christmas too.That spree is over. Retailers are going to find life tougher in 2017. Those facing the prospect of higher business rates alongside a dip in demand will experience a painful double-whammy. Continue reading...

With another bailout set to bring more cuts, quitting the euro is back on the agendaDimitris Costopoulos stood, worry beads in hand, under brilliant blue skies in front of the Greek parliament. Wearing freshly pressed trousers, polished shoes and a smart winter jacket – “my Sunday best” – he had risen at 5am to get on the bus that would take him to Athens 200 miles away and to the great sandstone edifice on Syntagma Square. By his own admission, protests were not his thing.At 71, the farmer rarely ventures from Proastio, his village on the fertile plains of Thessaly. “But everything is going wrong,” he lamented on Tuesday, his voice hoarse after hours of chanting anti-government slogans. Continue reading...

Rate-setter Kristin Forbes, who wanted borrowing costs higher, never felt she could vote for an increase. That’s because the economy can’t really take itSavers lost one of their last hopes for an interest rate rise when Bank of England rate-setter Kristin Forbes announced she would be heading back to her home in Massachusetts in June.Forbes, a US academic who craves a return to the “economic normality” of 4%-5% base rates, has consistently called for an increase, though never actually voted for one. After the summer, it could be that only Ian McCafferty is still inclined to raise rates among the Bank’s nine monetary policy committee members. Continue reading...

There is a progressive alternative to the Brexiters’ mythical Victorian free-trade golden age. All it needs is a simple regulatory changeThe truth is stranger than fiction. Rising out of the chaos of the Brexit vote stand two opposing visions of Britain’s future. There is Britain as the 19th-century free-trade, low-tax warrior, the world’s banker, insurer, and lawyer.Facts get in the way of visions. In the 19th-century free trade was about strong countries undermining the sovereignty of others. Not the best model for Britain today. Britannia no longer has the world’s most powerful navy to blockade Latin American ports until the locals pay City of London bondholders or push opium onto the Chinese.Related: Brexit has allowed the banks to get off Britain's naughty stepRelated: The overselling of financial transaction taxes Continue reading...

ONS says weaker sterling since Brexit vote led to 37.3m visits to UK in 2016, with big rise in North American touristsSterling’s slide since the EU referendum has lured bargain-hunting tourists to the UK, with overseas visitors hitting a record high last year.Official figures showed there were 37.3m visits to the UK in 2016, up 3% on the previous year and the highest since records began in 1961.Related: Luxury retailers hope Chinese new year tourists will leave them crowing Continue reading...

Kraft Heinz confirms it has approached Unilever about a deal that values the company at $143bn

Figures put UK growth forecast in doubt, with rising inflation squeezing household spendingBritish shoppers reined in their spending last month as a surge in fuel prices and higher food bills ate into household finances in a further sign the pound’s sharp devaluation is starting to bite.Official figures showed sales volumes fell 0.3% in January, confounding economists’ expectations of a rise. Adding to evidence of ailing consumer sentiment, December’s weak performance was revised even lower in the latest sales update to show a 2.1% decline over the Christmas period. Continue reading...

Crude oil’s 20% price leap and sterling’s slide against dollar have made cost of petrol and diesel rocket at pumpsRocketing UK fuel prices mean that two-car families are now spending almost £40 a month more on petrol than a year ago.

All the day’s economic and financial news, as shares continue to hit new peaks before coming off the boil in late trading

Free trade group lobbying against UK import tariffs slams Philip Hammond Brexit strategy as road to ‘self-harm’The chancellor, Philip Hammond, has been described as “economically illiterate” by the head of a group of economists lobbying for the UK to ditch tariffs and embrace free trade after Brexit.

Markets are at record highs, but optimism breeds recklessness. The question is how big the bubble will get before it burstsAll three main measures of the health in the stock market are at record levels. Donald Trump is bragging about the boost he has given to share prices. Bourses around the world are taking their lead from Wall Street and heading higher.What does that mean? It means the stock market is going to crash because sooner or later optimism breeds recklessness and boom will turn to bust. All that’s in question is how big the bubble will get before it bursts and when that moment will come.Stock market hits new high with longest winning streak in decades. Great level of confidence and optimism - even before tax plan rollout!Related: World stock markets hit record highs – business live Continue reading...

National survey suggests fall in number of smokers and rise in culture of eating out and recreational activities

A reality check may force the US president to climb down on his ‘America first’ rhetoric and see the merit of international bodiesDonald Trump did not assume the US presidency as a committed multilateralist. On that, partisans of all political persuasions can agree. Among his most controversial campaign statements were some suggesting that Nato was obsolete, a position that bodes ill for his attitude to other multilateral organisations and alliances.

Trump is learning that while he may love to give the middle finger to (supposedly) liberal public opinion, there are Republicans who will not join in

Jobs data show workers face rising costs and static pay, and no indication of Brexit vote triggering exodus of EU labourThe vast majority of employment growth was driven by non-UK nationals in the final three months of 2016 compared with a year earlier, the latest official figures on the labour market revealed.Of the 303,000 more people in work between October and December compared with a year earlier, 233,000 were non-UK nationals, taking the total to 3.48 million according to the Office for National Statistics. UK nationals working in Britain increased by 70,000 over the same period to 28.44 million.Related: Missing wage rises give lie to picture of full employment | Larry ElliottEncouraging labour market stats out today; record high employment rate and youth unemployment at its lowest level for more than 12 years Continue reading...

With non-UK nationals representing most of 300,000 rise in number employed, labour supply is helping keep lid on wagesBritain has all the hallmarks of a full-employment economy. The employment rate is at a record level, unemployment is at its lowest in more than a decade, and the percentage of women working is at its highest since modern records began.The one thing missing from this picture is an increase in wages. Full-employment economies are normally good for workers because they take advantage of labour shortages to strike better deals with employers. Continue reading...

Production costs jump 20% in a year as pound’s sharp fall following Brexit vote ramps up imports bill just as oil prices start to biteA surge in fuel prices helped push inflation to its highest level for more than two years last month and economists warned of more prices pressures as the Brexit blow to the pound ramped up firms’ costs.The Office for National Statistics said inflation rose to 1.8% in January from 1.6% in December and was the highest since June 2014. But it was slightly less than expected, as falling clothes prices offset some of the upward pressure on inflation from fuel and food.Related: UK inflation rate jumps to 1.8% as weak pound bites - business liveRelated: The UK's inflation foot soldiers: how the ONS measures the CPI Continue reading...

Geopolitical uncertainties surrounding Brexit, US economic policy and European elections are likely to stunt economic expansion in the year aheadThe German economy expanded less than expected in the final three months of 2016, dragging down growth in the 19-nation eurozone.Europe’s largest economy expanded by 0.4% between October and December, according to the German statistics office, Destatis. This was lower than the 0.5% forecast by economists. German growth in the third quarter was revised lower too, to 0.1% from 0.2%.Related: Eurozone growth rises to 0.5%; Trump adviser claims euro 'grossly undervalued'- as it happenedRelated: Eurozone consumer spending slows but exports rise Continue reading...

Higher fuel costs have driven the cost of living in Britain up again, at the fastest pace in two-and-a-half years

Asked about Donald Trump’s claim that the financial regulation meant businesses could not borrow, the Fed chair said growth in lending was robustDueling senators turned the Federal Reserve chairwoman’s first testimony before Congress since the election of Donald Trump into a row over Republican plans to defang Dodd-Frank, the financial regulation brought in after the Great Recession.Senator Elizabeth Warren, the Democrat emerging as Trump’s leading critic, quizzed Janet Yellen on Trump’s claims that Dodd-Frank was a “disaster” and on his plans to dismantle it.Related: Trump orders Dodd-Frank review in effort to roll back financial regulationRelated: Dismantling Dodd-Frank: Donald Trump's Valentine's gift to Wall Street | Jill Abramson Continue reading...

High street competition has helped rein in prices, but households are facing rising cost of living due to falling pound and rising commoditiesIt was nice while it lasted, but the days of ultra-low inflation are over – at least for the time being.The year ahead is going to be marked by rising prices and squeezed living standards, but the pickup in the cost of living needs to be put in perspective; January’s increase was smaller than expected, and the result of prices falling less sharply than they did a year ago.Related: UK warned to expect higher inflation as CPI jumps to 1.8% - business live Continue reading...