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Heather Stewart is joined by Larry Elliott, Jonathan Freedland, Rowena Mason and Torsten Bell to discuss Philip Hammond’s first budget. We hear from Labour’s Jonathan Reynolds and Tory Ed Vaizey. Plus: Henry McDonald in Belfast on the deadlock in Northern Ireland’s power-sharing talksSubscribe and review: iTunes, Soundcloud, Audioboom, Mixcloud, Acast & Stitcher and join the discussion on Facebook and TwitterPhilip Hammond’s first budget is met with a barrage of bad headlines and threats of a Tory revolt.Has a Tory manifesto tax pledge been broken? And has ‘Spreadsheet Phil’ forgotten to do his political calculations? Continue reading...
Forget national insurance rates. The IFS and Resolution Foundation focus on the real story: 15 years without a pay rise, a decade of lost growthFifteen years without a pay rise. The most protracted squeeze on real wages since Nelson’s victory over Napoleon’s fleet in the Battle of Trafalgar. A lost decade for productivity growth.The gist of the post-budget analysis from two of Britain’s leading thinktanks was simple: the economy continues to break records – mostly for the wrong reasons.Related: No pay rise for 15 years, IFS warns UK workers Continue reading...
There’s a new mood in the United States and a turbulent world will have to start focusing on monetary policy again“The stocks were sold; the Press was squared/ The Middle Class was quite prepared.†What Hilaire Belloc wrote of Lord Lundy applies double to Janet Yellen. With excellent reason. With the crybaby aristo, all that effort was spent on his career in politics; Ms Yellen, on the other hand, is doing something far more important. The head of the US central bank is busy preparing America, its new president, and indeed the world, for rising interest rates – and for a new economic era. The story of US interest rates this decade is simple to the point of tedium. The key fed funds rate has been dragging along just above zero ever since the banking crash. In December 2015, it was nudged up by a quarter of a percentage point by Ms Yellen and her colleagues at the Federal Reserve. A whole year later, they nudged it up again, which means that seven years after the notional end of the US recession it stands at mere 0.75%.That is set to change. Over the past few weeks, rate setters at the Fed have dropped broader and broader hints that interest rates will go up as soon as next Wednesday – and will keep going up. Last Friday was the turn of Ms Yellen. Speaking in Chicago, she said: “We currently judge that it will be appropriate to gradually increase the federal funds rate if the economic data continue to come in about as we expect.†That is about as straightforward as you get in central-bank speak. Nor is that likely to be the end of the rises: according to the Fed’s charts, committee members now forecast three interest-rate rises this year alone, and more in 2018. There are geopolitical reasons to hold off making too early a move. Next month, France’s presidential election, in which rightwing, anti-euro candidate Marine Le Pen is leading the polls, kicks off. Last year, the Fed held off in June before the Brexit vote. Continue reading...
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Thinktank’s post-budget analysis says average wages will be no higher in 2022 than in 2007 with weak pay growth exacerbated by looming welfare cutsWorkers in Britain are on course to suffer an unprecedented 15 years of lost earnings growth and have been warned to prepare for a third successive parliament of austerity by a leading thinktank.Analysing Philip Hammond’s spring budget, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said that after suffering a lost decade of earnings growth, households were now about to be hit by big welfare cuts.
Company blames ‘very aggressive’ rival and rising prices for slowdownDomino’s Pizza suffered a sharp slowdown in sales growth in early 2017 as rival Pizza Hut cut prices and consumers reined in spending.David Wild, the Domino’s chief executive, said Pizza Hut was “very aggressive†in January and that consumers were more cautious about spending. Continue reading...
Republican plan aims to close trade deficit and raise revenue – but it could hurt importers and spark short-term job lossesIn many ways, the Republican party’s plan to implement a “border adjustment tax†in the US is a virtual complement to the physical wall Donald Trump plans to erect on the Mexican border. Although the border adjustment tax has not seeped into public consciousness in nearly the same way as Trump’s wall, it could end up affecting the average American a lot more – and not necessarily in a good way.On the surface, the basic idea is to slap a tax of, say, 20% on imports, and to provide tax breaks worth a similar amount on exports. Most populists’ gut reaction is that this must be fantastic for US jobs, because it discourages imports and encourages exports. Unfortunately, as many have pointed out, there is a loose screw in this logic, which is that the US has a floating exchange rate.Related: Donald Trump has made rookie mistakes – he must change his approach Continue reading...
The only way for the National Health Service to avoid years of deficits is for it to outsource its buildings to professional management companiesThe NHS was offered little relief in Wednesday’s budget. The proposed spending increase of £250m in social care the first year and then £130m the following two years will hardly cover inflation, let alone other cost pressures that the shortfall places on the health service. With such austerity the NHS faces years of underfunding, according to a King’s Fund report.Related: Stop pretending we can’t afford the NHS: that’s the message of our march today | Larry SandersRelated: NHS struggling to plug a £22bn funding 'black hole', says reportRelated: Philip Hammond keeps his powder dry with a 'boring' budget | Larry Elliott Continue reading...
The party of entrepreneurs increases taxes on them. This budget’s contradictions will come to haunt Theresa MayTheresa May’s politics are at war with her very own policies. What she says is utterly undermined by what she actually does. No matter which way I look at Wednesday’s budget, that is the conclusion I end up at.The prime minister vows “a change is gonna comeâ€. Her chancellor delivers more of the same cuts. In No 10, they fret about “just-about-managing†families. In No 11, they make policies that, in their own budget analysis published yesterday, hit the just about managing harder than the rich. To Tory activists, May declares: “The government I lead will be driven not by the interests of the rich and powerful, but by the interests of ordinary, working-class people.†To Tory MPs, Philip Hammond boasts about the cuts he is making to corporation tax. Indeed, flick through the red book and the single biggest giveaway it lists is the two successive reductions to taxes on big businesses, worth £18bn over the next five years. Compare that to the £2bn he’s coughed up for care for elderly people.Related: Will Theresa May’s ‘just about managing families’ fall for the rhetoric? | Sonia Sodha Continue reading...
Forecaster revises prediction for UK economy in 2017, but says growth will slow next year as inflation hits spendingThe UK economy will confound forecasts for a Brexit-related slowdown through 2017, but will then quickly run out of steam as rising prices hit consumer spending, the Office for Budget Responsibility has predicted.The government’s independent forecaster said that since its November outlook, the economy had performed better than expected and it raised its forecast for economic growth this year to 2% from 1.4%. But it predicts growth will be slower than previously thought in 2018, at just 1.6%.Related: UK economy defies fears of slowdown after Brexit vote Continue reading...
Guardian Money editor Patrick Collinson runs through some of the main items in Chancellor Philip Hammond’s first budget. There was a tax hike for self-employed people and and welfare benefits were frozen once more, but better news for people on PAYE as tax free allowances were modestly increased and there was a commitment to tougher regulations on consumer subscription services
The continuous beep of the cardiograph was music to Hammond’s ears. The country was flatlining. So was the Commons …He’d come to praise the economy. But while he was there he might as well also bury it. They didn’t call him Phil “The Undertaker†Hammond for nothing. This was to be the Undertaker’s last spring budget. Just as well, as he didn’t really have anything much to say. Not that it would stop him from taking his time in not saying it. Seldom has a chancellor been on his feet for so long and said so little.Related: Philip Hammond announces tax rises for self-employed and free school funds – budget liveRelated: What the 2017 budget means for you Continue reading...
Windows smashed and stones hurled at police firing teargas as more than 1,000 people travel from Crete to protest against tax hikesFarmers who travelled to Athens from Crete have clashed with riot police in the latest unrest on the streets of the Greek capital, prompted by the government’s austerity policies.The confrontation occurred outside the agriculture ministry, where farmers wielding staffs engaged with police firing teargas to prevent them from entering the building. Continue reading...
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Chancellor increases national insurance for self-employed, contrary to promise made four times in 2015 election manifestoPhilip Hammond sparked a political row on Wednesday with a tax grab on self-employed workers that breached a Conservative manifesto pledge not to raise national insurance rates.Related: The Undertaker's budget brings death, taxes then a crazy kamikaze attack | John CraceRelated: Few will spot the difference in national insurance – at first | Patrick CollinsonRelated: Philip Hammond keeps his powder dry with a 'boring' budget | Larry ElliottRelated: Budget 2017 live: Hammond announces free school funds, and tax rises for self-employedHere’s a snapshot of economic data announced by the Chancellor #Budget2017 pic.twitter.com/m3Lq5e1VtQ Continue reading...
The chancellor saved big announcements for the autumn – and he is aware Brexit could still take the economy off coursePhilip Hammond promised a “boring†budget and he was as good as his word. It was quite an achievement to string his speech out for almost an hour because there was precious little in it that hadn’t been pre-announced.Most of the time, Hammond rehashed spending commitments and tax changes from previous budgets and autumn statements or said the government would be taking a close look at pressing issues such as the future of social care. Truly, this was a chancellor who hit the ground reviewing.Related: Key points of the budget 2017 – at a glance Continue reading...
Figures show public finances are looking in better shape – but Philip Hammond is likely to hold money back to help weather BrexitBudget 2017: Philip Hammond sets out tax and spending plans - live
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Women are massively more affected by budget cuts than men, says the Labour peer. They are more likely to be single parents, earn less and work part time than their male counterparts. She argues the government must replace ‘gender-neutral’ budgeting with economic policies that put women first Continue reading...
Philip Hammond denies big changes in spring budget as UK economy continues to perform strongly. But what does that mean for public finances?Philip Hammond has played down the significance of the spring budget and denied he plans to surprise parliament with big spending plans or tax reforms.This was always going to be a “just in case†budget, only bursting into life should the public finances need rescuing from a further slowdown in the economy. But the economy is performing strongly, even as it slows, leaving the chancellor to continue where he left off in the autumn statement: focusing on relatively limited measures to improve the UK’s infrastructure, skills and education.Related: Six key charts you need to make sense of the budget Continue reading...
UK expected to grow faster than thought in 2017 but chancellor urged to support jobs amid fears over inflation and house pricesThe west’s leading economic thinktank has raised its outlook for the UK this year, in a boost to Philip Hammond ahead of his budget. But the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said it still expected Britain’s economy to shift down a gear compared with last year as rising inflation hits households.The Paris-based organisation predicts that after expanding 1.8% in 2016, the UK economy will grow 1.6% this year. That is faster than the 1.2% it was predicting in late November. It made no changes to its earlier forecast for growth to slow further in 2018 to just 1% – which would be the weakest performance since the depths of the global financial crisis in 2009. It also highlighted rapid house price growth in the UK and other countries as a potential warning sign of another economic downturn. Continue reading...
Sharp fall in pound since EU referendum feeds into big rise in food prices with butter up 15%, fish up 8% and tea up more than 6%Supermarket inflation doubled last month as shoppers had to pay more for staples such as butter and tea, underlining expectations that household budgets will come under extra pressure in 2017.Grocery inflation jumped to a near three-year high of 1.4% in the 12 weeks to 26 February, from 0.7% in the 12 weeks to 29 January, according to the consumer consultancy Kantar Worldpanel. The cost of fruit and vegetables – a large proportion of which are imported – also rose. Continue reading...
Analysts suggest rising inflation is starting to rattle consumers as pre-Christmas boom comes to an abrupt halt and even once-buoyant car sales slip backBritain’s hard-pressed retailers have urged Philip Hammond to rethink government plans for revamping business rates amid signs that rising inflation has led to the weakest high street spending in more than five years.A report from the British Retail Consortium and KPMG found that the spurt in consumer spending seen in the run-up to Christmas had come to an abrupt halt, with the result that non-food sales are falling for the first time since the economy was flirting with a double-dip recession in November 2011.Related: Business chiefs tell chancellor: reform business rates now to avert high street crisis Continue reading...
As the chancellor prepares to slash the state he claims there’s no cash. Yet he’s preparing to give billions away to the richHow perfectly their faces fit the parts they play, this pair of graveyard undertakers to public services. Chancellor and prime minister use their grim solemnity to persuade the nation that there is no alternative. It’s all a charade – and they are, of course, play-acting – but they do it alarmingly well. Polls show they still convince voters that this extreme punishment is a doleful necessary.Related: Chancellor's budget to build up Brexit reserves, not tackle NHS crisisAnother £12bn axe will fall in April on ‘hardworking' low-paid families, plus £3.7bn taken from disability pay Continue reading...
Larry Elliott’s authoritative piece on the parallels between today’s economic and political trends and those of the 1930s (After the Crash, The 1930s supplement, 4 March) surprisingly omits mention of one contribution to the UK’s current budget deficit: Gordon Brown’s reckless decision in his last budget as chancellor to reduce the income tax rate from 22% to 20%. Had we retained higher tax revenues then, would the coalition and Tory governments have had the excuse to impose George Osborne’s unprecedented and profoundly regressive austerity budgets and the Brexit outcome they probably contributed to?
Chancellor urged to scrap planned tax cuts as figures reveal extent to which living standards will be squeezed by rising pricesPhilip Hammond is being urged to scrap cuts to inheritance, corporation and income tax in order to plough money into benefits, as figures reveal the extent to which living standards are going to be squeezed by rising inflation.Analysis by the Resolution Foundation, shared exclusively with the Guardian, shows a “double-whammy†for lower-income working families who the government has said it wants to target.Related: Chancellor's budget likely to appease dissent and aim to tackle Brexit | Heather Stewart Continue reading...
Michael Every, an English economist based in Hong Kong, to tell conference world could be split into trading blocs based around currenciesThe presidency of Donald Trump could mark the breakdown of global trade and the division of the world into trading blocs based around currencies – forcing Australia to choose between the United States and China.That is the scenario that will be painted by Michael Every, head of financial markets Asia Pacific for Rabobank at the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (Abares) Outlook conference on Tuesday.Related: Trump presidency poses threat to global economy, warns Fitch Continue reading...
‘No spending spree’ warning from Philip Hammond, who is likely to guard against economic damage of UK leaving EUPhilip Hammond is expected to use Wednesday’s budget to announce that tax revenues will be used to build up a reserve to deal with uncertainties arising from Brexit, rather than increase spending on the health service.The chancellor has indicated that some extra money will be allocated for social care. The shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, has warned that £12bn should be immediately redirected to the NHS, warning that “the crisis is happening nowâ€.Related: A budget in the shadow of Brexit leaves Hammond short of choicesRelated: Budget 2017: Hammond to tell us the Brexit vote could have been worse Continue reading...
With debt repayments of €7bn due in July and default looming, Greek government hunts rescue funds to boost employmentIn the long and winding road of Greek debt drama, disappointment and hope have been the alternating emotions that every government has faced. With the nation’s crisis no nearer to being resolved than when it erupted seven years ago, negotiations with creditors at another critical juncture and Europe engulfed in uncertainty, the need for hope has never been greater.“What Greece needs is a shock of growth,†the country’s deputy prime minister Yannis Dragasakis told the Guardian ahead of a crucial cabinet meeting on Monday. “We will meet to discuss a new growth strategy that will focus solely on boosting investment and reducing unemployment to pre-crisis levels, that is to say 8% in the next 10 years.â€Related: Greek debt: will EU and IMF finally offer light at the end of the tunnel? Continue reading...
Chancellor will say UK economy is in far better shape than forecast. What he won’t say is inflation rates rise faster for the poorWhen Philip Hammond stands up to give his budget on Wednesday, this is what you are likely to hear: economic growth has been, and will be, stronger than expected after the Brexit vote. Defying all the doomsayers who said a vote to leave could prompt a recession, consumers carried on spending and businesses continued to expand.The picture for the public finances is also looking rosier compared with Hammond’s maiden autumn statement in November. Back then, the fiscal watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), overhauled its forecasts to show that the impact of the Brexit vote on the economy would force the government to borrow £122bn more than hoped over coming years. Less than four months on, healthy tax receipts mean the government has not borrowed as much as previously feared to fund its spending over this financial year.Related: The budget 2017: seven things that we already know will happen …Related: Philip Hammond vows UK will fight back if it gets bad Brexit deal Continue reading...
Chancellor tells EU that Britain won’t ‘slink off like a wounded animal’ if no trade agreement is struck during article 50 talksPhilip Hammond has sent a warning to Britain’s European partners that Britain will “fight back†and not “slink off like a wounded animal†if it does not get the Brexit deal it wants.In combative language ahead of triggering the article 50 negotiations on terms of withdrawal, the chancellor said Britain would “do whatever we need to do†to be competitive in the event of leaving the EU without a trade agreement.
Britain’s negotiations to leave the EU look set to take place against a buoyant global economy and amid optimism over jobs and wagesAnyone who voted to stay in the EU should turn away now. There is disturbing news from far-off continents that could prove upsetting. The news is that Britain’s negotiations to leave the EU will take place against the backdrop of strong global growth. Such is the magnitude of this turnaround from the wobbles of 2015 that it could save the Tory administration from the inevitable cuts or extra borrowing that would follow a stagnating economy.We are not talking about a Trump-inspired dash for growth, although the US president is part of the story. The underpinnings for a year of high employment and solid wage growth across the globe are survey figures showing the largest improvement in worldwide manufacturing business conditions for more than five-and-a-half years. Continue reading...
Combined TV, film and music industry grew almost 11% in second half of 2016, underpinned by digitally savvy UK consumersAt a time when the British economy is looking for leadership, step forward Darth Vader, Adele and Queen Victoria. One of the reasons GDP growth has stayed robust since the EU referendum is the UK’s creative sector, which has produced buoyant box office receipts thanks to Star Wars, healthy sales of Adele’s latest album and global demand for homegrown TV productions such as Victoria.The combined UK film, TV and music industry boomed in the second half of last year, growing almost 11% compared with the previous six months, according to government figures. In December alone, the film sector accounted for half of all growth in the key services sector – which accounts for 80% of the British economy – because of box-office takings from UK-made Rogue One: A Star Wars Story and JK Rowling’s Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them. Continue reading...
A basic income could defeat the scarcity mindset, instil a sense of solidarity and even ease the anxieties that gave us Brexit and TrumpEvery student learns about Magna Carta, the ancient scroll that enshrined the rights of barons against the arbitrary authority of England’s monarchs. But most have never heard of its arguably more important twin, the Charter of the Forest, issued two years later in 1217. This short but powerful document guaranteed the rights of commoners to common lands, which they could use for farming, grazing, water and wood. It gave official recognition to a right that humans nearly everywhere had long just presupposed: that no one should be debarred from the resources necessary for livelihood.But this right – the right of habitation – came under brutal attack beginning in the 15 century, when wealthy nobles began fencing off common lands for their own profit. Over the next few centuries, the enclosure movement, as it came to be known, shifted tens of millions of acres into private hands, displacing much of the country’s population. Excluded from the basic means of survival, most were left with no choice but to sell themselves for wages for the first time.Related: To deal with climate change we need a new financial systemRelated: Does the west really care about development? Continue reading...
It was the biggest setback to the global economy since the dawn of the modern industrial age. But did the world’s reaction worsen the effects of the 1929 Crash? And have we learned from those mistakes?As the summer of 1929 drew to a close, the celebrated Yale university economist Irving Fisher took to the pages of the New York Times to opine about Wall Street. Share prices had been rising all year; investors had been speculating with borrowed money on the assumption that the good times would continue. It was the bull market of all time, and those taking a punt wanted reassurance that their money was safe.Fisher provided it for them, predicting confidently: “Stock markets have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.†On that day, the Wall Street Crash of October 1929 was less than two months away. It was the worst share tip in history. Nothing else comes close.There are similarities between now and the 1930s, in the sense that you have a declining superpowerIf Keynesian and monetarist economists agree on one thing, it is the disastrous consequences of deflationary policyThe Great Depression ushered in isolationism, protectionism, aggressive nationalism and totalitarianismRelated: Dali's enigma, Picasso's protest: the most important artworks of the 1930s Continue reading...
Record unemployment, costly healthcare, a massive north-south divide, rat-infested slums – and movie palaces, dance halls and lidos. Juliet Gardiner kicks off our special focus on the 1930s with a look at daily life in BritainRead more: Crash course. What the Great Depression reveals about our futureRelated: What the 21st century can learn from the 1929 crash | Larry ElliottCommentators often point to parallels between the current era and the 1930s – whether they are discussing geopolitics, state benefits or even “alternative factsâ€.By the 1930s, cinema had taken over from theatre and music halls as the most popular entertainmentRelated: Hunger, outrage and bombs: how the Manchester Guardian reported the 1930s Continue reading...
Country to become Europe’s most populous nation by 2050 but Brexit could change projections, says ONSThe UK’s population will pass 70 million in less than a decade, according to official projections, as demographers say the number of people living in the country is increasing “steadily†due to a combination of natural growth, ageing and the indirect impact of the expansion of the European Union.
Latest surveys bolster expectations that Bank of England will leave interest rates at their record low for rest of the yearBritain’s economy is cooling fast, according to the latest surveys of the services, manufacturing and construction sectors, bolstering expectations that the Bank of England will leave interest rates at their record low for the rest of this year and beyond.Coming days before Philip Hammond’s spring budget, the figures add to evidence that the economic strength seen in after the Brexit vote, which put the UK’s GDP growth in the front rank of developed nations, is now faltering.Related: Why the Bank of England won’t raise interest rates any time soonRelated: Germany overtakes UK as fastest-growing G7 economy Continue reading...
Premier Li Keqiang will deliver his annual report against the backdrop of a falling currency and an ever-growing housing and debt bubbleChina’s rubber-stamp legislature convenes this weekend with the script focused on containing economic risks while president Xi Jinping consolidates power ahead of a pivotal Communist party meeting later this year.The gathering of 3,000 delegates for the national people’s congress in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People is staged annually by the party.Related: Why Donald Trump can't bully China on tradeRelated: Australian housing market crash could lead to broader downturn, OECD warnsRelated: China accuses western media of fake news about human rights Continue reading...
Prices tick up helped by the rising cost of oil but a slump in household spending clouds the outlookJapan’s core consumer prices have risen for the first time in over a year thanks to a pickup in energy costs, marking a rare victory in the government’s long battle against deflation.
The new president can’t change the rules of the game singlehandedly. He must learn to work effectively within the systemThe first few weeks of Donald Trump’s presidency have contained what felt like a year’s worth of activity and rancour.The US media is “all Trump, all the time†– and they have had plenty of fuel. Amid Trump’s initial moves to “shake up†Washington, DC, including a five-year lobbying ban and approvals of pipelines that Barack Obama had blocked, he has made some serious – and avoidable – mistakes.Related: Will Trump build a wall protecting US banks from global rules? | Howard Davies Continue reading...
Attacks on the Federal Reserve raise alarm bells – it could be forced to halt worldwide cooperation on banking regulationAs President Trump struggles to staff his administration with sympathisers who will help transpose tweets into policy, the exodus of Obama appointees from the federal government and other agencies continues. For the financial world, one of the most significant departures was that of Daniel Tarullo, the Federal Reserve governor who has led its work on financial regulation for the last seven years.It would be a stretch to say that Tarullo has been universally popular in the banking community. He led the charge in arguing for much higher capital ratios, in the US and elsewhere. He was a tough negotiator, with a well-tuned instinct for spotting special pleading by financial firms. But crocodile tears will be shed in Europe to mark his resignation. European banks, and even their regulators, were concerned by his enthusiastic advocacy of even tougher standards in Basel 3.5 (or Basel 4, as bankers like to call it), which would, if implemented in the form favoured by the US, require further substantial capital increases for Europe’s banks in particular. In his absence, these proposals’ fate is uncertain.Related: Donald Trump, the master of unreality, must be resisted at every turn | Joseph Stiglitz Continue reading...
The Institute for Financial Studies is predicting that households will be almost 20% worse off by 2021Britain is in the midst of the weakest growth in living standards in at least 60 years, with low income families faring the worst, a leading thinktank has warned.Weak earnings growth, together with changes to taxes and benefits, will lead to a rise in inequality by 2021-22, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS). In a new report on living standards, poverty and inequality, the IFS says incomes for the average family will not grow at all over the next two years.Related: IFS warns of biggest squeeze on pay for 70 years over Brexit Continue reading...
Experts says Department for International Trade’s ‘cultural fit’ criteria are too subjective to comply with procurement rulesLiam Fox’s Department for International Trade may have broken EU procurement rules by specifying in advertisements that contractors must support Brexit.Albert Sanchez-Graells, senior lecturer in law at Bristol University law school, said the “cultural fit†criteria, included in two advertisements asking tech firms to bid for work with government, were too subjective to comply with EU procurement rules. Continue reading...