ALP says it will try to change three major agreements that allow corporations to sue if they think a government has damaged their interestsLabor is promising to review three of the major free trade agreements signed by the Abbott and Turnbull governments in the hope of removing a controversial clause that allows foreign corporations to sue the Australian government.It will also make Australia’s involvement in a proposed huge free trade zone in the Asia Pacific – dubbed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) – subject to stricter entry conditions than those the Coalition demanded.Related: Trump presidency would sink TPP and harm China relations, says Kim BeazleyRelated: TPP trade deal will expand Australia's economy by less than 1%, World Bank reveals Continue reading...

A fall in the value of the pound would make exports cheaper, but this could be negated by trade barriersIn this week’s EU referendum Q&A our panel discuss how a Brexit could affect the costs facing UK businesses:Would UK businesses be more or less competitive in the global market if we choose to leave? Continue reading...

British Retail Consortium reports rise of 0.5% after two months of falling sales, but says that conditions remain toughHigh street retailers enjoyed a modest rebound in sales last month as shoppers stocked up on summer clothes, barbecue food and outdoor toys, according to industry figures.The warm weather helped like-for-like sales rise 0.5% on the year in May, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) said. It brought some relief to retailers after falling sales in the previous two months, but the trade group said conditions remained tough.Related: Brexit forecasters miss everything that matters to real voters Continue reading...

Federal Reserve chair points to ‘considerable uncertainty’ in speech following weak jobs report on Friday, amid concerns over Brexit and Chinese economyHikes to US interest rates might be on hold again thanks to “considerable uncertainty about the economic outlook” Janet Yellen suggested in a speech on Monday.Speaking at the World Affairs Council of Philadelphia, days after a surprisingly poor report on the state of the US job market, the Federal Reserve chair said gradual increases to the interest rates were “likely to be appropriate”. But she omitted the phrase “in the coming months” – a phrase that, when spoken by Yellen 10 days ago, many economists took to imply that the Fed was ready to raise rates soon.Related: US economy adds paltry 38,000 jobs in May for weakest growth since 2010 Continue reading...

Signs of weakening demand from some business and private customers as new vehicle registrations increase 2.5% in MayNew car sales in the UK have continued to grow but at a slower pace than previous months amid signs of falling demand from some business and private customers.New car registrations in May rose 2.5% compared with last year to 203,585, the highest for the month since 2002, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). But the trade group noted growth had eased off with May marking the second month running when car registrations rose by less than 3%. Continue reading...

A ‘Robin Hood tax’ would not have stopped the 2008 financial crisis. We need better regulation of financial markets and a progressive tax on consumptionHowever November’s US presidential election turns out, one proposal that will probably live on is the introduction of a financial transaction tax (FTT). While by no means a crazy idea, an FTT is hardly the panacea that its hard-left advocates hold it out to be. It is certainly a poor substitute for deeper tax reform aimed at making the system simpler, more transparent, and more progressive.As American society ages and domestic inequality worsens, and assuming that interest rates on the national debt eventually rise, taxes will need to go up, urgently on the wealthy but some day on the middle class. There is no magic wand, and the politically expedient idea of a “Robin Hood” tax on trading is being badly oversold.Related: Oil prices can provide a slippery picture Continue reading...

Robots and automated systems are getting faster, better and cheaper by the day. A study of US jobs has found that 47% are threatened by automation in the next 20 years. So what can robots already do? What jobs are safe? And what will we do all day if we don’t have any work to do? Continue reading...

BDO’s output index is the lowest since September 2013 amid worries over the negative impact of a vote to leave the EUOrders among UK firms have fallen to their lowest level for almost three years as growing worries over this month’s EU referendum hit the British economy.Accountancy firm BDO reports that company investment is flatlining, forcing them to rein in their hiring plans. It fears that economic growth could fall sharply unless firms bolster their investment plans later this year.Related: Bank of England in preparations for potential Brexit Continue reading...

NatWest analysts says the figures are a testament to the flexibility of the UK labour marketA big pick-up in high skilled jobs helped Yorkshire and the Humber record the fastest employment growth in the UK last year, according to a report that will be a welcome boost to George Osborne’s “northern powerhouse” agenda. Continue reading...

What if the warnings from the IMF, the OECD and the Bank of England are just going straight over the heads of ordinary people?The International Monetary Fund says Brexit would either be pretty bad or very bad. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development warns that there would be dire consequences not just for Britain, but for the rest of the world. The Bank of England says output would go down and inflation would go up. As far as George Osborne and David Cameron are concerned, the evidence could not be clearer. A vote to leave in the referendum would be a self-inflicted wound. They think they have won the economic argument, which is why the Brexiters are now focusing on immigration.The remain camp’s strategy could yet pay off, but its case is not nearly as watertight as Cameron and co think. For a start, it is worth mentioning that the forecasting record of the IMF, the OECD and the Bank of England is rotten. Not one of these three august bodies was capable of predicting the 2008 crash – the biggest economic crisis in living memory – even when it was staring them in the face. Continue reading...

The latest American job market figures are truly alarming: and will require a complete change of approach from the Federal ReserveBritain is trapped in its own little Brexit bubble. For the next two and a half weeks, the country will be obsessed with the result of the referendum on 23 June. Nothing that is going on in the rest of the world will get much of a look-in.But beyond these shores, things are happening. The authorities in China are desperately trying to shore up growth. Eurozone finance ministers have all but guaranteed that, sooner or later, the Greek crisis will flare up again. Most pressingly, the US economy looks to be heading for serious trouble. Continue reading...

Bank of England boss Mark Carney should listen to those who fear regulators need to do more to stop continued bad practice in the financial sectorBehind the easy-going manner, Bank of England governor Mark Carney is angry. The object of his anger is Sir John Vickers, the mild-mannered former deputy governor who keeps telling the world that Carney has gone soft on the bankers.In recent months, when he hasn’t been discussing the impact of the EU referendum, Carney has behaved as if he were a Plantagenet king, dispatching his lieutenants to crush a former friend turned critic. The most recent intervention was led by Martin Taylor, a Barclays chief in the 1990s who sits with Carney on the financial policy committee, the UK’s financial watchdog. Continue reading...

Petition against decision to freeze repayment threshold reaches 120,000 signaturesThe government is coming under intense pressure to reverse controversial changes to student loans, after one of the scheme’s leading proponents, Martin Lewis, branded them a “disgrace”, and a petition opposing them started by a Durham student hit the crucial 100,000 signatures needed to trigger a possible debate in parliament.Last week, there was a huge outcry after it emerged that students are seeing their debts rise by as much as £180 a month because of the interest alone, with graduates charged 3.9% as the sum balloons. Many feel they have been duped and cheated. Students are also angry after the government backtracked on promises made in 2010 that the £21,000 earnings threshold – at which point students are required to pay back loans – would rise annually with average earnings.Most students were not aware of this change … it certainly wasn't in the small print Continue reading...

Originally I supported the £9,000 tuition fee regime. But now, after my own daughter has gone through the system, I realise that the interest rates charged are scandalousI have three children, all of whom went through university under different student loan regimes; the last one started university in 2012, just as the fees went up to £9,000. I was a supporter of the student loan system, as I figured it was not like a real debt, being written off after 30 years and only payable on a sliding scale of earnings. In this respect, I was out of line with most of the rest of my family and friends, who all seemed obsessed with the idea that Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems had done a U-turn on this. I thought I agreed with Vince Cable, who defended the move as a sensible way to fund a massively expanded higher education system.Then, after my daughter had already clocked up a term’s worth of loan, I was alerted to the high interest rate payable on the £9,000. She’d be paying RPI plus 3% while she was studying and at least RPI thereafter, more if she earned more. I was appalled by this, and since we have the resources, we paid off her loan and thereafter funded her studies ourselves. Continue reading...

Total falls 122,000 short of economists’ expectations ahead of crucial Federal Reserve meeting, but unemployment rate dips to 4.7%The US economy added just 38,000 jobs in May – 122,000 fewer than expected and the weakest growth since 2010. The unemployment rate slipped down to 4.7%, the Department of Labor announced on Friday.The report added to concerns that the US economy is slowing, ahead of a crucial meeting of the Federal Reserve, and was immediately seized on by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. “Terrible jobs report just reported. Only 38,000 jobs added. Bombshell!” he wrote on Twitter.Related: Verizon strike ends as tentative deal promises 'big gains' for workersRelated: Fed chief Janet Yellen says interest rates will rise 'in coming months' Continue reading...

One in three businesses say uncertainty is having a detrimental impactBusinesses in Britain’s services sector enjoyed a rebound in growth last month but were more nervous about hiring new staff before this month’s EU referendum, according to a survey.One-in-three firms said uncertainty around the 23 June vote was affecting their them, with new business gowing at the slowest pace for three-and-a half years. But 51% of firms in the sector, which spans hotels to insurers, said they had been unaffected by Brexit uncertainty. Continue reading...

George Osborne says 400,000 jobs could be lost while top figures in the services sector sign statement backing remain voteLeaders of some of Britain’s biggest firms have warned the UK’s service sector will be damaged by Brexit, with George Osborne saying as many as 400,000 jobs could be lost.

Dutch finance minister and Eurogroup president wants UK to play a stronger role if Brexit is rejected on 23 JuneOne of the eurozone’s most senior figures has called on Britain to lead in Europe and go beyond defending the interests of the City of London.

Economists for Brexit group claims that downturn would be avoided if Britain removed all trade barriers after leaving EUEconomists campaigning for Britain to leave the European Union have accused the Treasury and international institutions of “groupthink” in a report that says growth would be boosted if all trade barriers were removed after a leave vote in this month’s referendum.The group Economists for Brexit (EfB) said consumers and businesses would benefit from lower prices once EU-imposed tariffs were removed and dismissed predictions that the UK would be plunged into immediate recession if the remain campaign lost on 23 June. Continue reading...

European Central Bank and the OPEC oil cartel both gather in the Austrian capital, but markets underwhelmed by outcomes

Switzerland is poised to hold a referendum on introducing the concept, and Finnish and Dutch pilots are set for 2017To its acolytes, it is the revolutionary policy idea whose arrival is as urgently needed as it is inevitable. In a future in which robots decimate the jobs but not necessarily the wealth of nations, they argue, states should be able to afford to pay all their citizens a basic income unconditional of needs or requirements.Universal basic income has a rare appeal across the political spectrum. For those on the left, it promises to eliminate poverty and liberate people stuck in dead-end workfare jobs. Small-state libertarians believe it could slash bureaucracy and create a leaner, more self-sufficient welfare system.Related: Should we scrap benefits and pay everyone £100 a week?Related: A no-strings basic income? If it works for the royal family, it can work for us all | John O’FarrellRelated: And now for something completely different: some positive newsRelated: Even in Finland, universal basic income is too good to be true | Declan Gaffney Continue reading...

GDP figures reveal strong economic growth but falling labour costs suggest wage growth remains particularly weakThe latest gross domestic product figures showing the Australian economy grew the strongest it has for four years surprised most analysts and brought a smile to the prime minister and treasurer. The figures, however, reinforce just how dependent we are upon our exports – especially to China – rather than through any great strength within the domestic economy.In the March quarter Australia’s GDP grew by 1.1% in seasonally adjusted terms and a slightly more muted 0.9% in trend terms:Related: Economy is growing faster than expected at 3.1%, but news is not all goodRelated: Cutting corporate tax won't create jobs. It's yesterday's solution to our problems | Wayne SwanRelated: Fraction of small businesses likely to use Coalition tax cuts to expand – industry body Continue reading...

World economy would suffer spillovers if Britain votes to leave the EU, warns Paris-based thinktank in new economic forecasts

Until governments act collectively to bolster growth, lasting recovery from the 2008-09 recession will remain elusiveA wind of change is howling through the world’s economic institutions. Last week it was the International Monetary Fund saying that austerity could do more harm than good and that neoliberalism was not all it was cracked up to be. This week it is the turn of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development to challenge the orthodoxy.The OECD says governments around the world should consider banding together to spend more on public works, something it deems necessary because lasting recovery from the deep recession of 2008-09 remains elusive. Continue reading...

Foreign demand for goods from UK factories falls for fifth month as customers unwilling to commit to investmentUncertainty over Britain’s membership of the EU is hitting a third of businesses in the UK manufacturing sector, which barely scraped growth in May according to a closely watched survey.Foreign demand for goods from British factories fell for a fifth month as firms reported that customers were unwilling to commit to investment ahead of the 23 June referendum.Related: Brexit 'would leave British workers £38 a week worse off' Continue reading...

On 23 June, the UK will vote on whether to leave the European Union. The campaign to leave has been dubbed ‘Brexit’ – a pithy portmanteau derived from the words ‘Britain’ and ‘exit’ – and is dominating the news in Europe. But what do New Yorkers make of the debate? And can they even decipher what the Brexit is? The Guardian’s Adam Gabbatt finds out

Paris-based thinktank compares consequences of UK leaving EU to effects of China’s high-tempo economy grinding to a haltBritain’s departure from the EU poses as big a threat to the global economy as a “hard landing” in China, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development has said.

Despite a rise in prices, using oil as a signal for wider global economy may be short-sighted, as often it will fluctuate simply according to textbook economicsFor the first time since last October, the price of a barrel of oil has broken through $50. So it seems a good time to update the analysis I presented in January 2015. Back then, I argued that $50 or thereabouts would turn out to be a long-term ceiling for the oil price.At the time, with crude prices still above $60, almost everyone believed that $50 would be the rock-bottom floor. After all, futures markets predicted prices of $75 or higher; the Saudi and Russian governments needed $100 to balance their budgets; and any price much below $50 was considered unsustainable, because it would put the US shale-oil industry out of business.Related: Is Opec relevant in an oil market of falling prices and overproduction? Continue reading...

Company’s CEO Ian Taylor has kept a low profile but is finally breaking cover to lobby against EU plans to tighten regulation of commodity trading“The biggest company you’ve never heard of” is a label regularly bandied around but is well-deserved by the global trading firm with a name more suited to a household cleaning product: Vitol.You will not hear its name at this week’s Opec meeting in Vienna or have heard it quoted on the subject of the significant rise in oil prices over the past four months, but a Saudi oil minister would know the name Vitol as they would Shell or BP. Continue reading...

Legatum Institute index says Nigeria – Africa’s biggest economy – is only the 26 most prosperous African country, as fuel shortages hamper growthDecades of economic growth across Africa have failed to improve the lives of millions of people, according to a report (pdf).The Legatum Institute’s Africa prosperity index, published on Wednesday, rates countries by opportunity, freedom, education and security, as well as social bonds.Related: It's naira or never: Nigeria needs decisive action on its currency | Oluseun OnigbindeRelated: Finish line far out of sight in Nigeria's race to beat corruption | Oluseun Onigbinde Continue reading...

Comparisons with German and Dutch regions where productivity is already high do not stand up to scrutinyThe idea behind George Osborne’s northern powerhouse is a simple one. Improving transport links between the big cities of the north will create economies of scale and greater dynamism. Britain, it is said, can learn lessons from the Rhine-Ruhr region of Germany and the Randstad region of the Netherlands, both of which have a number of cities clustered together. The chancellor has pledged Treasury support for a number of key infrastructure projects, including high-speed rail links.Related: Osborne's budget builds on 'northern powerhouse' ambitions Continue reading...

Leaving the EU would be a disaster for wages, jobs and employment rights, the TUC saysA decision to leave the EU would be a “disaster” for British workers who would be £38 a week worse off outside the EU by 2030, according to the TUC.The trade union federation, which is campaigning to persuade voters to remain part of the EU, said Brexit would hit wages, jobs and workers’ rights and warned of a “devastating” blow to Britain’s manufacturing sector, where highly skilled jobs would be lost. Continue reading...

Centre for Cities says plan is too focused on intercity transport rather than improving performance of individual citiesCities in the north of England must become more productive if the chancellor is to realise his vision of a so-called “northern powerhouse”, a thinktank has said.The Centre for Cities said George Osborne’s plan to bridge the economic gap between the wealthier south and the poorer north was too heavily focused on intercity transport links, and not enough on improving the performance of individual cities. Continue reading...

The European Union’s jobless rate has dipped to 8.7%, as the slow recovery continues

I was there during David Cameron’s renegotiation, and it’s clear to me that Britain has secured binding guarantees on bailing out the eurozoneHaving lost the economic arguments for leaving the European Union, Britain’s increasingly desperate leave campaign seems set on peddling a number of apocalyptic myths about the consequences of a vote to remain. It is more risky to stay in the European Union than it would be to leave, claim the Brexiters. But what are the likely risks of staying in the EU for Britain and how seriously should British voters take them?One of the central arguments used by Ukip and some Conservatives is that Britain should leave because of the economic risks of being “chained to the corpse of the eurozone”. I find this disingenuous, given that four of the most advanced global economies represented in the G7, including the UK, are EU member states.Related: Osborne attacks Vote Leave 'fantasy economics' after call to axe fuel VAT Continue reading...

HS2, Crossrail and other infrastructure projects are hailed for delivering economic growth, but critics say they don’t do enough for poor communitiesMajor UK transport projects, such as HS2, Crossrail, or the trans-Pennine tunnel, are announced to much fanfare – but also criticism. Their champions say infrastructure projects of this scale can deliver widespread regeneration, boost the economy and offer mass employment opportunities. But others have reservations about whether such infrastructure benefits everybody, particularly local people with lower paid and lower skilled jobs.“There is a tendency for governments to only want to fund transport projects you can see from space,” says Stephen Joseph, executive director of Campaign for Better Transport. “But we have long argued that it is local infrastructure that actually matters to most people, but gets the least funding.”If the UK wants to compete for jobs and investment, world class infrastructure will be absolutely essentialRelated: Lord Adonis: HS3 could be the rail revolution of the 21st centuryRelated: Roads and railways: where south-east Asia leads, Britain trails behind Continue reading...

Lloyds Bank’s barometer finds confidence about trading prospects at three-year low and overall confidence also downUK companies have become gloomier about their trading prospects and the economic outlook as the EU referendum approaches, according to a survey.Related: Labour voters in the dark about party's stance on Brexit, research saysRelated: Education and the arts are right to stand up for European ideals | Editorial Continue reading...

As privatisation agency chairman, Stergios Pitsiorlas is seen as the right man to expedite disposal of a growing list of assetsIn Greece today, government power comes with few trappings. Unable to tap capital markets and dependent wholly on international aid, the debt-stricken country’s senior officials are acrobats in a tightrope act. They are placating creditors, whose demands at times seem insatiable, and citizens, whose shock is never far away.Few know this better than Stergios Pitsiorlas, the head of Greece’s privatisation agency. The agency’s asset portfolio – readily available online – goes some way to explaining why. A catalogue of beaches, islands, boutique hotels, golf courses, Olympic venues and historic properties in Plaka on the slopes beneath the ancient Acropolis, it could be a shopping list for the scenery in a movie – rather than a list of possessions that Athens is under immense pressure to offload.The Germans are going to take everything. I hear that even beaches are up for saleRelated: IMF tells EU it must give Greece unconditional debt reliefWe have to run fast and make the changes that need to be made quickly Continue reading...

PM moves to stave off potential drag on consumer spending as doubts rise over ‘Abenomics’ programmeJapan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe, is to postpone an unpopular tax rise in a last-ditch attempt to breathe life into the economy, reports said on Monday, days after he told fellow G7 leaders that the world was on the brink of a crisis comparable to the Lehman shock.

As developed economies such as Australia’s struggle to encourage growth, even the disciples of austerity are admitting that they might have it wrongFor Malcolm Turnbull the election is all about jobs and growth and a belief that a company tax cut and reducing government spending is the way to achieve both. But in light of the failures of such standard economic thinking after the GFC to provide economic growth, new research is finding that policies that fail to consider other aspects such as inequality are actually undermining long-term economic performance.By pretty much any measure economic growth in Australia and around the world since the GFC has been sluggish.Related: Morrison and Bowen produce a lively treasurers' debate, but costings are no clearer Continue reading...

It is not only a Brexit vote which would mean far fewer euros or dollars for your holiday currencyFor some it is the sound of the first cuckoo. For others it is the chock of leather on willow. But for those who write about the economy the first sign of spring is when colleagues start asking for advice on when to buy their foreign currency for a holiday abroad.This year, inevitably, the decision has been made more difficult by the EU referendum on 23 June. Is it better to buy euros or dollars now or wait to see which way the vote goes? Admit it, lots of you have been weighing up the risks in the past few weeks, haven’t you?Related: Foreign currency: top tips for buying your holiday moneyRelated: The smartphone app revolutionising foreign currency exchange Continue reading...

The economic challenges facing Britain will not go away, whether we stay or leave after 23 JuneThis is all absurd; yet it is also very important, with serious implications for the future of the UK and the rest of Europe. Yes: in or out, we shall still belong to the continent of Europe. Moreover, given that the rest of the world also seems to be taking an interest, the outcome of the 23 June referendum can hardly be invested with too much importance.Apart from anything else, a Brexit vote would almost certainly add to the growing dissatisfaction with the EU in many continental countries. There are even fears of a domino effect. Continue reading...

Poll shows 88% of 600 experts fear long-term fall in GDP if UK leaves single market, and 82% are alarmed over impact on household incomeNine out of 10 of the country’s top economists working across academia, the City, industry, small businesses and the public sector believe the British economy will be harmed by Brexit, according to the biggest survey of its kind ever conducted.Related: Ukip’s use of Great Escape theme tune grates with composer’s sonsRelated: Brexit would jeopardise peace in Europe, warn religious leaders Continue reading...

Neither consumers nor brands are getting much of what they want, and the unpredictability has caused chaos for retailers whose power has slipped awayMonday is Memorial Day, the official start of summer and another celebration traditionally marked by sales and a shopping bonanza. But the sun isn’t shining for US retailers.

Campbell’s new National Theatre play was inspired by the despair, rage and determination of Greek anti-austerity protesters, but also by the discovery that the history of his family echoed that of his troubled countryI was just a year old when the tanks rolled ominously down the streets of Athens one morning, announcing the beginning of one of Greece’s darkest chapters. At dawn on 21 April 1967, after a period of political and economic uncertainty, the colonels seized power in an intimidating but bloodless coup, and remained in government for seven years. For most of that period I was too busy learning to walk, talk and read to concern myself with what was going on in the big world beyond our front door. I have snatches of memories of the dictatorship: the national anthem being played on the black and white TV every evening before the news; the hectoring tones and frowning facial expressions of the leader, George Papadopoulos; the long and impressive military parades that often marched through the capital. It was only later that I came to learn what lay beyond the quiet safety of our house in the suburbs: a world of people being taken away in the middle of the night because of their politics and their convictions; a world of intimidation, oppression and torture.And then came the day that heralded the regime’s demise – 17 November 1973. Of this I have a much clearer recollection. My siblings and I were at our grandmother’s apartment in the centre of Athens having lunch: probably spinach pie, lamb with macaroni and mosaiko, her chocolate biscuit cake. As we sat down to eat we heard explosions, gunfire and a loud roar that resembled a huge tidal wave but was in fact the sound of human beings in revolt. A few blocks away, at the Athens Polytechnic, the fight against totalitarianism had begun: the birth pangs of democracy echoed across the city and into my grandmother’s apartment.Related: The Pride – review Continue reading...