Economics | The Guardian

A 29-page document setting out conditions of €85bn deal shows Greece faces more austerity and health, welfare, pensions and tax overhaul

Its slowdown is worrying, but the Chinese financial system isn’t as integrated with the world as America’sAccording to a modern version of Metternich’s saying, when the US sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold. Does the same now apply to the world’s second largest economy? If China implodes, could it drag down the global economy with it?China’s stock market has fallen by about a third since the middle of July, and this week it has devalued its currency, the RMB, not once but twice, sending shockwaves through financial markets. Despite the seeming panic, so far prices have only fallen back to the same levels as at the end of March. In any case, fewer than one in 10 Chinese households invest in stocks and shares, and on average the stock market accounts for less than 15% of household wealth. So the tens of millions of small Chinese investors who play the stock market have mostly been betting relatively small amounts and haven’t lost their shirts.Related: China stuns financial markets by devaluing yuan for second day runningWith its own newly formed middle class, China now has its own consumption base to serve Continue reading...

Ben Cavender, principal at China Market Research Group, analyses why China chose to devalue the yuan for a second day running. Stocks and currencies fell sharply across the region as investors expressed their concerns over a possible currency war and faltering economy. Cavender says the move is intended to strengthen exports and make Chinese good more competitiveRead: China stuns financial markets by devaluing yuan for second day running Continue reading...

Western central banks advised to resist raising interest rates and told to prepare to ward off deflationary slump in face of cheaper Chinese exports“Make no mistake, this is the start of something big, something ugly.” City economist Albert Edwards rarely minces his words, but his reaction to China’s devaluation, which sent shockwaves through global markets, underlined how powerfully Beijing’s move may be felt thousands of miles away.Edwards, of the bank Société Générale, argues that as well as creating a challenge for China’s Asian rivals, by making its exports more competitive, a cheaper yuan will send “a tidal wave of deflation” breaking over the world economy.Related: Why has China devalued its currency now and what impact will it have? Continue reading...

Parliament to reconvene for emergency session to ratify bailout text amid uncertainty over whether €85bn deal has backing of all EU member states

Stocks, currencies and commodities fall sharply across region as investors fear a stalling China economy and possible currency war despite Beijing’s assurances

The neoliberalist capitalist model has resulted in civil wars and economic disaster, and it’s only going to get worse. Unless, Paul Mason argues, we take advantage of the technological revolution we are living through and create a postcapitalist sharing society. If we let prices fall and delink work from wages, we can save the world from disaster

Continue reading...

Euclid Tsakalotos must know the projections he used to convince lenders of a prospective new deal are based on fantasy figures, say economistsEuclid Tsakalotos failed to raise a smile. As the Greek finance minister moved past waiting reporters, he turned and said that only two or three more issues remained on the table unresolved. In other words, an €86bn (£61bn) bailout package was within his grasp.It was a moment to punch the air in defiance. But he seemed resigned and tired. And well he might be. Not only must the rescue package receive the approval of the German government and its sceptical finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, he must know that many of the projections he has used to convince lenders they can be repaid are based on fantasy figures.Related: Euclid Tsakalotos: Greece's secret weapon in credit negotiationsRelated: Greek stock market surges as outline bailout deal reached with creditors Continue reading...

Prime minister Alexis Tsipras calls emergency sessions of parliament to vote on €86bn bailout measures, which will see further spending cuts imposed

Governor Mark Carney tells George Osborne that City traders and bankers will be asked for their views on effect of financial stability policiesMark Carney has told the government that the Bank of England is to examine whether policies intended to strengthen financial stability in the economy have held back economic growth.The Bank governor said Threadneedle Street would use the findings of an open forum in November – when City traders and bankers are expected to give their views on regulation – to “take stock of the reform agenda in financial markets”.Related: Super Thursday: Bank of England transparency or information overload? Continue reading...

People’s Bank of China described move as a ‘one-off’ but if Beijing seeks to boost imports through devaluation, it will be a painful processChina’s weakening of the yuan by 1.9% is an event that, in a year’s time, will be seen either as an irrelevance or a major turning point for the global economy. Everything depends on what happens next. If the tweak heralds the start of a proper devaluation to boost exports, the world economy will have to adjust to a new China. The process would be painful.

Ignore the hysteria. Our plans to tax the very rich and reshape the economy are sound common senseAs people wake up to the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn actually being able to win the Labour leadership, the reaction has become increasingly hysterical, especially from elements of the Labour establishment.The near panic is especially evident in its response to the strategy outlined by Corbyn’s team of economic advisers.We can tackle the deficit by halting tax cuts to the very rich and to corporationsRelated: Poll puts Jeremy Corbyn on course for leadership victory – should we trust it? Continue reading...

Athens hails €86bn bailout but Brussels is keen to stress the deal is a technical, not political, agreementThe Greek government announced it has struck an ambitious bailout deal with creditors aimed at securing around €86bn (£61bn) over three years in return for radical economic reforms to be pushed through parliament as early as this week.News of the agreement after a marathon 24-hour negotiating session at Athens’ Hilton hotel promptly triggered scepticism in Berlin, where the deputy finance minister said fundamental questions on Greece remained to be answered.Related: Greece close to clinching €86bn bailout deal – liveRelated: Greece urged to put 'quality before speed' in bailout negotiations Continue reading...

Supermarket chiefs meet NFU and other leading unions in bid to resolve protests and blockades over falling milk priceMorrisons is to launch a new milk brand that costs 10p extra, with the premium paid directly to British dairy farmers, in an attempt to end a dispute over the falling price of milk.The supermarket chain will sell four-pint bottles of “Morrisons Milk for Farmers” alongside its existing own-brand milk, which will remain at the same price and therefore 10p cheaper.Related: Farming unions call for 'seismic change' in way food is sold in Britain Continue reading...

Exclusive extract: Labor MPs Tim Watts and Clare O’Neil argue Australia must quickly adapt to the technological revolution to remain a fair societyAustralia’s national story is unique. A bushranger who spoke poetically about social justice is celebrated, at once a criminal and a national hero. Young Australians have distinguished themselves in war not just for their grit and bravery, but for the easy egalitarian ways between officer and soldier. Our democratic tradition was founded by a motley crew of gold diggers: women and men, local and immigrant, patrician and proletariat, united in protest under the Southern Cross. Through each of these foundation stories runs a common thread: equality.Related: The best argument against Australian inequality | Miriam Lyons and Ian McAuleyReturns on investment in the early years are usually four to nine dollars returned for every dollar invested.Related: Better equality in Australia is tainted by high jobless poverty rates Continue reading...

China has made the wrong choice as political and social reform takes second placeWhen China does well, the world feels nervous. How high will it rise, and how peacefully? When China falters, the world worries. How will we manage if this mighty economy slumps, or if political control of this immense society should slip gear? Of course every big country, whether it be India, Russia, Brazil or Nigeria, generates a few such anxieties, as does the European Union, but not on the same scale. Only America has the same degree of truly global importance as China. What, for example, links the recent poor performance of Jaguar Land Rover, the halving of Tata’s profits, the shrinking exports of Taiwanese phone firms, the rescue of the Ecuadorean economy after it defaulted on debts, and the fall in the price of gold last month? The answer is the state of the Chinese market, the policy choices of Chinese financial institutions, and the decisions of the Chinese government.Those decisions have an extraordinary ripple effect across the world. What is true in economics is also true in politics and military affairs. More than 100 Chinese ships, including nuclear submarines, last month churned through the waters of the South China Sea, firing off missiles and guns and generally behaving as if there was a war on. Planes zoomed overhead. The Chinese did this in an ocean area they had unilaterally designated as off limits to foreign ships, and they did it immediately before a meeting of foreign ministers of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Kuala Lumpur. Continue reading...

FTSE and Dow Jones climb as analysts predict Beijing will ease monetary policy to stimulate growth after figures show 8.3% fall in exportsStock markets around the world have been lifted by hopes that the Chinese government will allow its currency to devalue to boost growth after figures at the weekend showed a surprise slump in exports from the world’s second-largest economy.The FTSE turned a near 80-point loss into a 17-point gain on Monday as investors speculated that Beijing will move to offset further bad news from its manufacturing sector on Wednesday with a package of measures to help exports. In New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 223 points, or 1.3%, in early afternoon trading.Related: Chinese shares are falling, but the real fear is that the economy itself is slowing Continue reading...

Countries should seek to lower both the price paid to oil producers and raise the price paid by oil consumers. And now is the right timeWorld oil prices, which have been highly volatile during the last decade, have fallen more than 50% over the past year. The economic effects have been negative overall for oil-exporting countries, and positive for oil-importing countries. But what about effects that are not directly economic? If we care about environmental and other externalities, should we want oil prices to go up, because that will discourage oil consumption, or down because that will discourage oil production?The answer is that countries should seek to do both: lower the price paid to oil producers and raise the price paid by oil consumers, by cutting subsidies for oil and refined products or raising taxes on them. Many emerging-market countries have taken advantage of falling oil prices to implement such reforms. The United States, which is now surprisingly close to energy self-sufficiency, so that the macroeconomic effects roughly balance, should follow suit. Continue reading...

Areas such as hospitality and parts of retailing do not face the same competitive pressures as high-end manufacturing, the IPPR saysThe government must focus on unloved sectors such as hospitality and retail, if it is to tackle Britain’s lamentable productivity record, according to a new analysis by thinktank the Institute for Public Policy Research.Tony Dolphin, the IPPR’s chief economist, said that while the government tends to target support at the highly skilled workers in advanced manufacturing, it is the low-paid staff behind bars and checkouts whose performance may be critical to sustaining Britain’s recovery. Continue reading...

While other candidates apologise for spending and borrowing too much, Corbyn’s take on austerity and party’s economic record adds upHere’s a question for you. Consider the following statement: “We must live within our means, so cutting the deficit is the top priority.” Do you agree?If you said yes, you are with the majority. If you said no and are a member of the Labour party, you are almost certainly planning to vote for Jeremy Corbyn to be its next leader.Related: Jeremy Corbyn suggests he would bring back Labour's nationalising clause IVRelated: Economist defends 'Corbynomics' after Chris Leslie's criticism Continue reading...

Jeremy Corbyn has been criticised as a throwback, but he is a timely reminder to his party of its values. And history has hardly been kinder to the ConservativesAs CJ, the managing director in a famous bygone BBC television series, might have said: I did not get where I am today forecasting the outcome of elections for the Labour leadership. But we have certainly moved a long way from 1976, when there were no fewer than six heavyweight contestants, namely Jim Callaghan (who won), Denis Healey, Roy Jenkins, Tony Crosland, Michael Foot and Tony Benn.Now, for all the badmouthing of Jeremy Corbyn, my hope is that in due course he will be seen to have been a beneficent influence, forcing the other candidates to do some serious soul-searching – for the soul of the Labour party, no less.In 1979, the Thatcher cabinet was replete with ministers who claimed manufacturing did not matter Continue reading...

George Osborne may have many reasons for selling off state assets, but his promised great divestment is not free of long-term costsGeorge Osborne wasted no time after the Conservatives were returned to power in May before signalling that flogging off public assets would be a key part of his strategy for paying down government debt. Royal Mail, and a parcel of development land around Kings Cross, were quickly earmarked for the block on 4 June. Royal Bank of Scotland is now to follow.When Osborne announced the Royal Mail sell-off in parliament, he lumped it together with in-year spending cuts to Whitehall departments, to come up with a total of £4.5bn. Yet as the killjoys at the Institute for Fiscal Studies quickly pointed out, the two approaches – spending cuts and privatisations - are rather different. Continue reading...

The Federal Reserve looks likely to decide that the time is right for a rate rise, almost seven years to the day since Lehman Brothers’ collapseThe symbolism would be perfect. When the Federal Reserve announces its decision on US interest rates on 17 September it will be almost seven years to the day since Lehman Brothers went bust. That was the moment when the financial crisis went nuclear, ushering in the era of ultra-low interest rates.That era now looks to be coming to an end. The latest set of US unemployment figures were unspectacular, and would have been seen as modest in previous economic cycles. The increase in non-farm payrolls was 10,000 smaller than Wall Street had been expecting.Related: Unemployment rate remains steady at 5.3% as US economy adds 215,000 jobs Continue reading...

Office for National Statistics says trade gap reduced by £2.7bn in the second quarter of this year with sales of chemicals, fuel and cars risingBritain’s exporters narrowed the trade gap with the rest of the world in the second quarter to £4.8bn - the lowest quarterly gap for four years - despite the recent strength of the pound.The Office for National Statistics said a £2.9bn increase in exports had helped to reduce the trade deficit in the April to June quarter by £2.7bn, compared with the previous three months. Continue reading...

Economists forecast that nonfarm payrolls increased by 223,000 last month, matching June’s job gainsThe number of US jobs probably rose at a healthy pace in July and wages likely rebounded in data due on Friday, providing further signs of an improving economy that could allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in September.

The governor of the Bank of England says the Monetary Policy Committee voted to 8-1 to hold the interest rate at 0.5%. It also voted unanimously to maintain the stock of asset purchases at £375bn and re-affirmed its expectation that when rate increments occur they can be expected to be limited and gradual. However, he adds that the time for a rate rise was “drawing closer” Continue reading...

Nigel Wilson says companies should not pay out cash to shareholders at expense of long-term investment, echoing view of Bank of England’s top economistThe boss of Legal & General has backed a call by the Bank of England’s chief economist for companies to invest for the long term instead of paying out cash to feed the short-term demands of shareholders in the City.Nigel Wilson, the chief executive of one of the biggest investors in the UK stock market, said his investment management arm would take a hard line with bosses who put a higher priority on payouts to shareholders than ensuring the future health of their companies.Related: Shareholders receive too much money from business – Bank's chief economist Continue reading...