Speaking on the BBC's Today programme, Mark Carney, the Bank of England chief, discusses levels of uncertainty in the business community and the prospects of an EU referendum in the UK. Carney says the referendum should happen as soon as necessary to help give business leaders confidence. He also explained that Europe was a vital trading partner for the UK Continue reading...

Growth, trade, immigration, jobs, diplomacy: what would the impact be if a 2017 referendum pushed UK towards the exit?David Cameron’s electoral triumph has brought the prospect of a British withdrawal from the EU one step closer. The prime minister has vowed to reshape Britain’s ties with Europe before putting EU membership to a vote by 2017.But what would “Brexit” - a British exit from the 28-nation EU - look like? Eurosceptics argue that withdrawal would reverse immigration, save the taxpayer billions and free Britain from an economic burden. Europhiles counter that it would lead to deep economic uncertainty and cost thousands, possibly even millions, of jobs.Our current assessment is that leaving the EU would be likely to impose substantial costs on the UK economy and would be a very risky gamble.On the one hand, UK GDP could be 2.2% lower in 2030 if Britain leaves the EU and fails to strike a deal with the EU or reverts into protectionism. In a best-case scenario, under which the UK manages to enter into liberal trade arrangements with the EU and the rest of the world, while pursuing large-scale deregulation at home, Britain could be better off by 1.6% of GDP in 2030.These are not the sort of sums on which the fate of great nations depends – nor on which momentous decisions about EU membership should be made.Related: Europe faces a new existential crisis – Cameron’s victory has brought Brexit a step closer | Natalie NougayrèdeThe UK is roughly 11.5% of GDP – about £185bn a year – worse off because it is a member of the EU instead of being a fully independent sovereign nation.The attractiveness of the UK as a place to invest and do automotive business is clearly underpinned by the UK’s influential membership of the EU.Our research clearly shows that leaving the EU would seriously damage economic growth and jobs in the UK. But the EU can and must be improved. It must not interfere in things which it does not need to do and it must make a better job of doing the things it has to do. We need to continue saying this loudly and clearly. London is Europe’s financial centre so there is a strong national interest in getting this right.Politicians who continue to claim that 3m jobs are linked to our EU membership should be publicly challenged over misuse of this assertion. Jobs are associated with trade, not membership of a political union, and there is little evidence to suggest that trade would substantially fall between British businesses and European consumers in the event the UK was outside the EU.It would adapt quickly to changed relationships with the EU. Prior to the financial crisis, the UK saw on average 4m jobs created and 3.7m jobs lost each year – showing how common substantial churn of jobs is at any given time. The annual creation and destruction of jobs is almost exactly the same scale as the estimated 3-4m jobs that are associated with exports to the EU.It would place the UK in the same position as the US is currently in, along with Indian, China and Japan, all of which manage to export to the EU relatively easily.Although the years immediately surrounding the exit are likely to feature some degree of market uncertainty, if the right measures are taken the UK can be confident of a healthy long-term economic outlook outside the EU.There are a number of free trade agreements currently being negotiated by the EU, including with the US and Japan. The UK with 65 million consumers would not have anywhere near the negotiating power that the EU with its 500 million consumers would have.While we could negotiate trade deals with the rest of the world, we’d have to agree deals with over 50 countries from scratch just to get back to where we are now, and to do so with the clout of a market of 60 million, not 500.The general rule is that if a country like Britain were to cherrypick and discriminate against individual EU member states, the EU would at least threaten to retaliate.The idea [the UK] could have influence in the world outside the EU is risible. Its power and effectiveness is from being a strong leader in Europe.I think from China’s point of view we don’t think that the UK, or France or Germany or any single European countries can play a global role. But the EU is different. It is the biggest market, and China’s biggest trade partner. The EU is seen as a major power in the world. If the UK left, it would hurt the UK much more than the EU.We have always been more comfortable dealing with countries individually than as part of a club. We don’t see the UK as part of the EU, but as a distinct identity because of its history and the Indian diaspora. So it plays a different role in the Indian psyche, a unique case. It is not always positive but it is always distinct. And some of the most strategic elements in foreign policy cannot be conducted through a club like the EU, but as part of a bilateral relationship. Continue reading...

Mark Carney says prospect of referendum is stoking business uncertainty, which could hurt economy if firms put off investment plansThe governor of the Bank of England has intervened in the EU referendum debate, saying an in/out poll should take place “as soon as necessary”.Related: Brexit – what would happen if Britain left the EU? Continue reading...

This year’s budget was all about having a go, ‘Tony’s Tradies’ and signalling to the base – oh, and maintaining a useful conceit“Cut anything into tiny pieces,” said the Roman philosopher Seneca, “and it all becomes a mass of confusion.”The federal budget is a bit like that. Budgets are reported on and analysed exhaustively, with more commentary than an Ashes series and more statistics than Wisden. But it’s a thing cut into a confusing mass of tiny pieces, an event about naked politics and rubbery numbers.

Treasury’s plans to offload shares in Lloyds Banking Group has seen state’s stake fall – but Osborne’s speedier scheme will see the government lose out

Slow capital spending growth is a much debated feature of the recovery. UBS economist Paul Donovan thinks the changing way we work helps solve the puzzleOne of the striking features of the economic recovery in the UK and elsewhere is how sluggish capital spending has been – especially considering that businesses can borrow at rock-bottom interest rates.Why is that? Well, if you are reading this on your laptop, and you use that same laptop for work, you may guess where this is going.One possible explanation lies in the change in working practices.“In 2000, 32% of UK businesses were employers. By 2014, 24% of UK businesses were employers. This raises the obvious question of what on Earth 76% of UK businesses were doing if they were not employing anyone – and the answer of course is that they were single person businesses where the owner was the sole person ‘on payroll’.

All the latest economic and financial news, including coverage of the Ecofin meeting in Brussels and Greece’s ongoing bailout talks

Study finds better-educated men more likely to drink hazardous amount than less-educated counterparts, but difference much more pronounced for womenDangerous drinking among better-educated women has contributed to an increase in alcohol consumption over the last 30 years in the UK, bucking a downward trend in industrialised countries, according to a large international study.The report, Tackling Harmful Alcohol Use, by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development found that on average, each person in the UK consumes 10.6 litres of pure alcohol a year, compared with 9.5 litres across the OECD’s 34 member countries. The study said the UK was the 11th heaviest-drinking country out of the 40 that it examined. Continue reading...

Bailed-out bank seeks to cross-examine O’Reilly, once Ireland’s richest man and ex-boss of Heinz and Independent newspaper group, over his financial means

University of Portsmouth research shows some banks just as vulnerable to collapse despite efforts to improve their resilience

Berlin is no longer worried if Greece has a referendum on bailout terms and possibly exits the euro - Germany just wants some closureThe late news from the make-or-break talks in Brussels was no news at all, really. There were a few encouraging words for the progress Greece is making on its reform plans. Athens also ordered a €750m (£535m) repayment to the International Monetary Fund. But an agreement on releasing €7.2bn of bailout funds? No.There was, though, one intriguing subplot. Germany, in the form of finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble, suddenly seems taken by the idea of Greece holding a referendum. Continue reading...

Few expect a solution soon to the economic dilemma facing Greece as hardliners defend ‘red lines’ while debt repayments loom and creditors’ attitudes harden“Nothing will change this week,” said Aris Karnachoritis confidently as the waitress handed out bottles of beer and frosted glasses to him and his friends.Constantinos Neocleous, sitting beside him at a table on the beach at Vouliagmeni near Athens, nodded agreement. “It’s not in anyone’s interests to have a crisis now,” he said. Continue reading...