Inflation at 0.0% means the Bank of England is under no pressure to ease its stimulus, but rising or falling wages remain key to UK economic growthPut the “Britain slides into deflation” headlines on hold for another month. Higher petrol prices meant that the annual inflation rate in the UK in March was zero, the same as it was in February.Technically speaking, even had the Office for National Statistics announced that last month’s inflation rate had been negative, it would not have qualified as deflation. Continue reading...

Fall in clothing and gas prices boosts disposable incomes as CPI measure stays at zeroBritain’s inflation rate has held at its record low of zero, giving disposable incomes a boost and leaving the country on the brink of a period of falling prices.

Pickup in food and homeware sales brings relief in March but experts warn of softer spending as election uncertainty weighsShoppers splashing out on Easter foods and new homewares helped UK retailers enjoy a bounceback in sales last month, according to industry figures.The latest British Retail Consortium report showed sales up 3.2% on a like-for-like basis from a year ago, but the figures were flattered by the earlier timing of Easter this year compared with 2014.All in all, retailers can also be satisfied with the consumer response to their Mother’s Day and Easter offerings, but it is important to note that April figures will be impacted by the absence of Easter this year.”While supermarkets may be selling more, they are pedalling hard to stand still.”Any retail recovery is built on confidence, and uncertainty around the outcome of the election continues to cast a shadow over the long-term recovery of the sector. If the result causes concern and confusion, this could be the factor that stifles consumer spending.” Continue reading...

Finance chiefs rank risk of policy change and referendum on EU membership as biggest threats to UK business

No doubt governing boards across England were pleased to see your coverage of school budgets as they consider how they are going to balance the books in the coming financial years. However, one of the statements in your editorial (7 April) gives very much the wrong impression; you conclude that beneficial changes have meant “all schools are treated in a similar way”.School funding is hideously complicated, and in fact the result of changes to funding allocations made by central government over the past five years has been to increase the differences between similar schools in different parts of the country. The Institute for Fiscal Studies has charted the increasing variations from the mean of funding per pupil over a long period. Continue reading...

Beijing has made clear that after initially cushioning the slowdown with a massive fiscal stimulus, it is now aiming to engineer a shift to a more sustainable growth modelThe worse-than-expected trade data from China on Monday was the latest evidence of the struggle Beijing faces in achieving a soft landing for the world’s second-largest economy.Before the Great Crash of 2008, China’s role as the world’s manufacturing powerhouse, shipping cut-price goods from shoes to smartphones out across the world, seemed like the economic equivalent of alchemy: turning the sweat and toil of hundreds of millions of workers into gold. Continue reading...

Jim Yong Kim calls for five-point plan to deliver low-carbon growth, including removal of incentives to exploit oil, gas and coalPoor countries are feeling “the boot of climate change on their neck”, the president of the World Bank has said, as he called for a carbon tax and the immediate scrapping of subsidies for fossil fuels to hold back global warming.Jim Yong Kim said awareness of the impact of extreme weather events that have been linked to rising temperatures was more marked in developing nations than in rich western countries, and backed for the adoption of a five-point plan to deliver low-carbon growth.Related: Climate change: why the Guardian is putting threat to Earth front and centre | Alan Rusbridger Continue reading...

A rise in the online economy has been matched by a rise in van sales, so if you’re seeing more of them on the road, it’s thanks to all those phone covers, candles and sheds people are orderingName: Vans.Age: Between 100 and 200, if you count the word being applied to covered wagons in the 19th century. Continue reading...

Sheffield council’s groundbreaking jobs scheme has kept graduates in the city, with more than 100 now in high-skilled jobs with smaller employersWhen Jade Hearsum graduated from the University of Sheffield she would have moved anywhere for a job. She considered London, but shuddered at the expense. She thought about Norwich, where she grew up.

Guardian experts analyse the key election policies unveiled by Ed Miliband

Weakest exports for a year and poor imports affect markets worldwide before Chinese shares rally on expectation Beijing will step in to stimulate economyA surprise fall in Chinese exports fanned fears that global growth is losing momentum and sent ripples through world markets on Monday.Figures showing the biggest drop in overseas sales from China for a year and a slump in imports took financial markets by surprise. In the UK, fears about the strength of the world’s second largest economy knocked the FTSE 100 share index off its record highs as mining stocks in particular were sold.Related: Chinese export fall raises growth fears - liveA bigger than expected slide in both March exports and imports has raised concerns about the prospects of the Chinese economy hitting its 7% GDP target later this week …These data misses raise concerns that not only is the Chinese economy failing to rebalance with demand remaining low, but also the global economy’s demand for Chinese exports is also falling back, raising concerns about the state of the global recovery as well.In China, growth will moderate further, to 7.1% in 2015 and 6.9% in 2017, reflecting continued policy efforts to address financial vulnerabilities and gradually shift the economy to a more sustainable growth path. Continued measures to contain local government debt, contain shadow banking, reduce excess capacity, curb energy demand, and control pollution will reduce investment and manufacturing growth. However, targeted stimulus is expected to continue to mitigate the impact on short-term growth, should this show signs of slowing considerably below the government’s indicative target of about 7%.East Asia Pacific has thrived despite an unsteady global recovery from the financial crisis, but many risks remain for the region, both in the short and long run.To address these risks, improving fiscal policy is key. With low oil prices, countries – whether oil importers or exporters – should reform energy pricing to usher in fiscal policies that are more sustainable and equitable. Continue reading...

Analysis: Many of the party’s commitments are feasible and economically relevant but the final two pledges are there for purely political purposesLabour spent most of the 1990s rebuilding its reputation as a party of economic competence. The damage caused by being in power during Britain’s most severe postwar recession means that process has begun all over again.It is not unusual for voters to trust the Conservatives more than Labour over the running of the economy. What has been striking during this parliament has been the size of the Tory lead. So the budget responsibility lock in line one of Labour’s manifesto is an attempt to confront this weakness head on. It is the equivalent of Gordon Brown in 1997 promising to keep the top rate of income tax at 40% and to stick to Ken Clarke’s spending plans.Related: Labour election manifesto: key points Continue reading...

Shadow chancellor says party will clear the current budget deficit by the end of the next parliament as Miliband prepares to launch Labour’s manifestoEd Balls has delivered an unequivocal commitment that Labour would eliminate the current budget deficit and even deliver a surplus by 2020, in a toughening of the party’s language on public finances.

It’s easy to feel sorry for a country crippled by war and corruption – but dismissing past debts is not the way to help, say Alexander Lebedev and Vladislav InozemtsevThe road to hell is paved with good intentions, they say, and so it may be with the west’s approach to Ukraine.Related: Viktor Yanukovych is gone, but where are Ukraine's missing millions? | Oleksii KhmaraRelated: When rebels toured the palace: how does Ukraine's presidential compound measure up?Related: Viktor Yanukovych boasted of Ukraine corruption, says Mikheil Saakashvili Continue reading...

Business Trends report maintains strong growth reading, suggesting job creation will continue to rise; signs too of building industry revivalEmployers’ hiring intentions are at a “sky high” level and stronger than in the pre-recession boom, but concerns remain about the UK’s failure to grow productivity, according to a new report.

Labour to launch manifesto and challenge claim it would not tackle deficit by unveiling ‘budget responsibility lock’ and guarantee policies are fully fundedEd Miliband will move to change the terms of the general election campaign by portraying Labour as the party of fiscal responsibility when he guarantees that every policy will be fully funded and will involve no extra borrowing.In one of the boldest moves by a Labour leader since Tony Blair amended clause IV in 1994, Miliband will use the launch of the party’s manifesto to unveil a “budget responsibility lock” to guarantee the deficit will be cut in every year.This is a manifesto which shows Labour is not only the party of change but the party of responsibility tooRelated: Labour seeks to reinvent itself in public mind as party of fiscal cautionRelated: Labour pledges huge fines on tax avoiders to raise £7.5bn a year Continue reading...

Falling energy costs and a supermarket price war may force the inflation rate below zero for the first time in more than five decadesBritain could fall into deflation this week for the first time in more than half a century, the result of an escalating supermarket price war and falling energy prices.Inflation, as measured by the consumer prices index, fell to zero in February for the first time since comparable records began in 1989. Estimates from the Office for National Statistics suggested that it was the lowest reading since 1960. Continue reading...

Greece has not got the money to pay its debts and Europe’s big beasts are unwilling to offer more subsidiesA trap door is slowly opening under Athens. The Finns appeared to give it a little nudge last week with a leaked report offering a glimpse of its battle plans should the Greeks exit the euro. In Berlin, the finance minister’s obsession with paying down debts (bizarre when German infrastructure is falling apart) was on display again and gave a further clue that he will not tolerate Greece reneging on its own borrowing.While words like denouement have been used before in reference to the crisis, it looks as if we are on the last chapter of a very long book. With only days left to present a plan and not more than two weeks to come up with some serious cash to repay outstanding loans, Athens is at crunch point. Continue reading...

This week’s inflation data may see the rate dip below zero for the first time since 1960. But don’t call it ‘deflation’What do economists do to their children’s beachball after a vigorous afternoon session by the seaside? Do they deflate it? Don’t be daft. They negatively inflate it.You may not quite get the difference between the two, but don’t worry. This week might provide you with the chance to enrol in one of those crash courses in the dismal sciences that we all adore, as there’s a chance that when the latest inflation data is revealed we will discover that prices have been falling (at least according to the consumer price index measure). Continue reading...

As Labour and Tories argue over repealing legislation passed in 1799, other outdated forms of taxation need to be made clear, simple and fairGeorge Osborne, the arch-tactician, surely has at least one pre-election lollipop up his sleeve for Tuesday’s Tory manifesto launch; but so far in the general election campaign, Labour have made the running on tax.When Ed Miliband announced his party’s pledge to abolish non-domiciled tax statutes, the Conservatives – unsure whether to attack Labour for destroying a useful quirk of the UK tax system, or condemn the policy as half-hearted “tinkering around the edges” – became bogged down in arguments about how much revenue abolition would raise. Continue reading...

Dutch study finds mathematics results suffer most from dope consumption – findings sure to fuel debate over steps towards legalisationIf you want to do well in your exams, especially maths, don’t smoke dope.This is the finding of a unique study that is likely to be fiercely debated by those in favour of and those against the liberalisation of cannabis laws. Economists Olivier Marie of Maastricht University and Ulf Zölitz of IZA Bonn examined what happened in Maastricht in 2011 when the Dutch city allowed only Dutch, German and Belgian passport-holders access to the 13 coffee shops where cannabis was sold. The temporary restrictions were introduced because of fears that nationals from other countries, chiefly France and Luxembourg, were visiting the city simply to smoke drugs, which would tarnish its genteel image. Continue reading...

London’s stock market brushes off election jitters, as hopes that weaker currencies will boost corporate profits push European shares to 15-year recordLondon’s stock market brushed off electoral concerns to hit a new high as European shares also surged to a 15-year record on hopes that weaker currencies would support corporate profits.The FTSE 100 index of leading UK shares closed up 1.1% at 7,090 points and also hit a new intra-day high of 7,095.Related: Sterling hits five-year low against dollar as election fears spook investors Continue reading...

The International Monetary Fund’s annual get-together comes as the new China-led infrastructure bank AIIB underlines the global shift in the balance of powerFinance ministers and central bankers from more than 100 countries will gather at the International Monetary Fund in Washington next week amid a diplomatic spat over China’s plans for a rival financial institution.The IMF’s regular get-togethers of policymakers, held jointly with the World Bank, have been a fixture on economists’ calendars since the birth of the so-called Bretton Woods institutions after the second world war. Continue reading...

As mainstream politics moves to the centre, what has happened to the beating heart of the left? Zoe Williams takes a road trip in search of 21st-century socialistsRosie Rogers, 28, and I are sitting in a tipi outside her office in Highbury, London. (She works for Greenpeace as a political adviser – of course they have a tipi.) I’m on a quest to find the British left, because it’s become apparent no one quite knows where it has gone, or what it looks like. Far from a beating heart, these days it is made up of many small organisations. “You know the Brownies,” Rogers asks. “You have all those patches? We have so many patches. You have your Reclaim the Power badge, your Focus E15 badge, your UK Feminista badge, your UK Uncut badge. It feels like ‘the left’ isn’t how people identify any more. We don’t say, ‘I’m a lefty, I’m a socialist, I’m a Marxist.’ Sometimes I’m a bit Women’s Institute, sometimes I’ll sign a 38 Degrees petition, sometimes I’ll go on a climate march.”Quick glossary: Reclaim the Power is a grassroots environmental movement; Focus E15 is the housing protest that started when Newham council in London tried to shunt some single mothers out of a hostel to private rentals 100 miles away (it started tiny, but now has 10,000 supporters); UK Feminista does what it says; UK Uncut, which has a network of 80,000 people, opposes corporate tax avoidance and austerity measures, in whatever way they think will work.In these movements we all sleep together, we all hang out… It’s participatory, consensus-based, dynamic, funI thought: why is anyone going to listen to a brown man? I didn’t feel I could connect with the people in politicsI sat next to a young campaigner on poverty who thought people over 40 were pointless. We’d had our chance, and blown itThe difference between right and left politics, this division is no longer useful Continue reading...

Almost a third of recruiters surveyed by industry body reported increased starting pay, but KPMG warns that talent shortage could slow economic growthSkills shortages are driving increases in pay, with almost a third of recruitment agencies reporting improved starting salaries, according to a study.Pay growth was especially strong in the Midlands and the south, said the report from KPMG and the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (Rec). Continue reading...

Christine Lagarde has grown frustrated at pace of policies to spur growth and now warns of a ‘low-low-high-high’ scenarioThe boss of the International Monetary Fund has made an impassioned plea for governments to make the next decade one of sustainable and inclusive growth that cuts national debt burdens and tackles high unemployment.Christine Lagarde warned that developed and emerging economies still suffering the after-effects of the 2008 crash must collaborate better to avoid an era of low growth. Continue reading...

Harold Wilson’s 1970 re-election campaign took a knock from a 0.2% deficit in goods but now a near 7% figure hardly warrants a mentionA bad set of trade figures just ahead of the election. For those with long enough memories, news that Britain’s trade deficit almost doubled in February harks back to the 1970 election, when Harold Wilson’s campaign was jarred by a rise in imports caused by the arrival of two new Boeing jumbo jets.Like David Cameron, Wilson had been going around the country insisting that his long-term economic plan was working. The widening of the trade deficit, though, cast doubt on whether the government’s export drive following the devaluation of the pound in 1967 was actually delivering.Related: Widening UK trade deficit prompts fears for growth Continue reading...

Not since Clement Attlee’s Labour government was elected following the second world war have rates remained unchanged for the duration of a parliamentBritain will go a whole parliament without an increase in interest rates for the first time since the immediate aftermath of the second world war, after the Bank of England left official borrowing costs on hold.Threadneedle Street said it had left the bank rate unchanged at 0.5% following the meeting of its nine-strong monetary policy committee, extending a run that began more than six years ago when Gordon Brown was prime minister and Alistair Darling chancellor.Related: From MacDonald to Cameron: UK interest rates and prime ministers Continue reading...

Analysts warn recovery may be waning as ONS reports deficit on goods and services nearly doubled in February to £2.9bn from £1.5bnBritain’s trade deficit with the rest of the world widened sharply in February, in the latest sign that economic growth may have moderated in the first quarter of the year.The Office for National Statistics said the deficit on goods and services was £2.9bn in February, up from £1.5bn in January, with the worsening picture mainly caused by a slowdown in goods exported to non-EU countries, particularly the US.Related: UK trade deficits used to matter at election time - not any more Continue reading...

The arithmetic of Scottish financial independence has changed drastically since last year’s referendumNicola Sturgeon faced criticism in the Scottish leaders’ debate on Wednesday night over the tax and spending implications of giving Scotland full financial independence.

Stock markets rise as Athens makes repayment to International Monetary Fund but anxiety continues over eurozone country’s ability to keep servicing its loansMarkets have breathed a sigh of relief after Greece made a €450m (£330m) loan repayment to the International Monetary Fund.“The payment has been made,” a Greek government official told Reuters on Thursday. Continue reading...

British Chambers of Commerce’s survey of 7,500 firms shows growth in domestic sales and exports slackened, raising doubts about underlying health of economyBritain’s businesses experienced a slowdown in economic expansion in the first three months of 2015, with both manufacturers and services hit, according to the latest quarterly survey by the British Chambers of Commerce.After a strong reading in the final quarter of 2014, the BCC’s health check of 7,500 companies showed that growth of domestic sales and exports slackened across the UK this year, raising doubts about the underlying strength of the economy. Continue reading...

Greek minister sees signs that Berlin acknowledges that compensation should be paid for Nazi wartime atrocities ‘despite disagreeing with the figure’The row between Germany and Greece over war reparations has intensified after Athens hit back at Berlin’s description of its demand for a staggering €278.7bn (£202bn) in compensation as “stupid”.Insisting that Greece’s leftist-led administration had “a historical duty” to seek compensation for atrocities committed by Nazi forces between 1941-44, the politician in charge of the campaign said on Wednesday that he welcomed the German reaction.Related: Alexis Tsipras in Moscow asks Europe to end sanctions against Russia Continue reading...

Central bank says US economic growth has slowed, adding weight for officials who want to delay first interest-rate hike since global recessionThe Federal Reserve said on Wednesday that growth in the US economy had slowed and officials were divided on whether to raise interest rates for the first time since the global recession.Releasing the minutes of its March meeting, the Fed said officials had discussed the moderation of gross domestic product – the broadest measure of the economy – in the first quarter, even as the job market continued to improve. Continue reading...

Greek leader’s ‘springtime for Russian-Greek relations’ fails to extend to bailout loans from Vladimir Putin, but he warns sanctions could cause ‘new cold war’

Politicians, media and public hostile to call for reparations, seeing it as an obstacle to resolving debt issue, even if many acknowledge war crimes against GreeceGermany has become increasingly disparaging of Greece’s demand for €278.7bn (£202bn) in reparations for the Nazi occupation of the country during the second world war.The country’s vice-chancellor and economy minister, Sigmar Gabriel, who is also leader of the Social Democrats, dismissed the Greek demands, saying: “Honestly, I think it’s stupid.” He added that the issues of Greece’s debts and Germany’s war reparations were separate, and that such talk would not move forward negotiations “by one millimetre”.Related: Greece puts figure of €279bn on claim for German reparations Continue reading...

A slower pace seems like common sense after a decade of tremendous growth as Beijing tries to calm things down, but it depends on whom you askI just spent a week in China, where I participated in the Boao Asia Forum, a conference similar to the annual gathering of the World Economic Forum in Davos. The topic of my panel was what president Xi Jinping has called the Chinese economy’s “new normal”: an era of relatively slower growth, following three decades of double-digit economic expansion.But what strikes me most about China’s economy is how remarkable it is. Indeed, its performance continues to astound me. Though it undoubtedly faces plenty of challenges, the key question is how likely they are to bring down the economy. Continue reading...

In this interview originally published in 2013, Nicholas Lovell discusses the way in which agile businesses in this disruptive digital era can turn super fans into a sustainable income Continue reading...

International Monetary Fund says delegating investment decisions to large asset managers, as many savers do, can ‘induce destabilising behaviour’Fund management companies that invest billions of pounds of savers’ money pose a threat to global financial stability and regulators should police them more closely, according to the International Monetary Fund.Delegating day-to-day investment decisions to large asset managers, as pension funds and many individual savers do, “introduces fundamental incentive problems between end investors and fund managers, which can induce destabilising behaviour and amplify shocks,” the Washington-based organisation says. Continue reading...

For the moment, the two are going in opposite directions, a temporary result of curbs on mortgage lending in response to market showing signs of overheatingMarch 2015 was a great month to be selling new cars in Britain. Almost 500,000 were shifted, making it the best month the motor trade has had this century, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders. It was the 37th month in a row that there has been year-on-year growth in business.It was not a great month to be flogging houses. Demand for mortgages, according to the Bank of England, fell significantly in the first quarter of the year, continuing the trend seen in the final three months of 2014. Continue reading...