Economics | The Guardian

Credit agency warns of property price falls, unemployment doubling and inflation spiking in latest grim forecastBritain’s economy will suffer rising unemployment and falling household incomes that would trigger a recession should Theresa May fail to secure a deal to prevent the UK crashing out of the European Union next year, according to analysis by the global rating agency Standard & Poor’s.Property prices would slump and inflation would spike to more than 5% in a scenario that S&P said had become more likely in recent months following deadlock with Brussels over a post-Brexit deal.Unemployment would rise from current all-time low of 4% to 7.4% by 2020 – a rate last seen in the aftermath of the financial crisis;house prices would likely fall by 10% over two years;household incomes would be £2,700 lower a year after leaving without a deal;inflation would rise, peaking at 4.7% in mid-2019;London office prices could fall by 20% over two to three years, similar to the decline following the 2008 financial crash.Related: A no-deal Brexit would shorten the odds on a long UK recession Continue reading...

IFS among those warning the chancellor he could come to regret his ‘gamble’Napoleon once said it was better for generals to be lucky than good, and by that score, Theresa May picked well when she chose Philip Hammond as her chancellor.As the Institute for Fiscal Studies made clear in its post-budget analysis, Hammond just got very lucky indeed. In the run-up to the budget, Britain’s leading tax and spending experts said the chancellor had been put in a real bind by the prime minister and would only be able to fund extra investment in the NHS by raising taxes, borrowing more or taking the axe to spending elsewhere.Related: IFS says Hammond's budget is gambling with public finances Continue reading...

Readers air their views on the chancellor of the exchequer’s plans for taxing and spendingPolly Toynbee (A sticking plaster budget for a country in decline, Journal, 30 October) reports Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies as asking rhetorically why most countries in Europe raise more money in taxes than the UK. The answer is because they have higher levels of public spending. As I explain in my book Debt or Democracy, in the same way banks increase the money supply as they lend, states increase the money supply when they spend. By the same token, repayment of bank loans and state taxes and charges remove money from circulation.As Philip Hammond’s budget demonstrates, the level of proposed public spending is based on speculation about the likely future tax take, not some pre-existing tax piggy bank. It is only after each accounting period that the balance between tax and spending is revealed. Rather than squeezing money out of the pocket of a beleaguered (private) taxpayer, public spending is putting money in people’s pockets. Through taxation of both the public and private sectors, the state is asking for some or all of it back. The level of tax and spend is therefore a matter of political choice, not some immutable neoliberal economic logic.

Zero growth in Italy under populist government helped drag rate down to 0.2%Economic growth in the eurozone has slumped to levels last seen more than four years ago, after stagnation in Italy helped slow the rate of expansion to 0.2% in the latest quarter.Figures from the EU statistics agency Eurostat showed a marked and unexpected slowdown in the third quarter of 2018, in the latest evidence of an easing of economic activity around the world since the start of the year. Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the day’s political developments as they happen, including Philip Hammond’s morning interviews about his budget

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, including new growth figures from across the eurozone

Extra NHS funding ignores risk of UK accounts deteriorating badly after Brexit, thinktank says

If Brexit hits the UK as hard as many expect, this budget gift to taxpayers may be intended to keep the economy afloatWhy did Philip Hammond unexpectedly cut taxes for high earners a year early, in a budget supposedly all about ending austerity? And why won’t Labour, for all its ferocious rhetoric about championing the many not the few, pledge to reverse them?At first glance, the question seems almost too obvious to need an answer. Everyone likes free money. And since richer people tend to vote Tory, giving away money to richer people (nearly half the benefit of yesterday’s move to bring forward next year’s planned hike in allowances goes to the top 10% of households) tends to be a cynical but successful way of buying Tory votes. Standing between people and all that free money, conversely, tends to be electoral suicide for Labour. Which is why some at Westminster even wondered if this budget was laying the ground for a snap election before too long.Related: A budget to end austerity? Only if Hammond makes the rich pay | Polly Toynbee Continue reading...

CBI gauge falls further than expected with wage growth sluggish and inflation highUK retail sales growth slowed significantly in October as British consumers reined in their spending after a summer spree fuelled by warm weather and the World Cup, according to the latest industry figures.The latest snapshot from the Confederation of British Industry showed retail sales growth dropped to the weakest level since April, while separate government figures showed an increasing number of UK companies entering insolvency as trading conditions remain tough on the high street. Continue reading...

Top half of households to benefit from 84% of the cuts, says Resolution FoundationIncome tax cuts for millions of workers announced in Philip Hammond’s budget will “overwhelmingly benefit richer households”, analysis has found, with almost half set to go to the top 10% of households.The analysis by the Resolution Foundation (pdf) thinktank found that welfare cuts would continue to affect the poorest households, despite Hammond’s announcement that austerity was coming to an end.Related: From potholes to Brexit: an at-a-glance guide to the budgetRelated: From single parents to landlords: how will the budget affect people? Continue reading...

We’ve looked at the figures to see how Philip Hammond’s budget will affect your finances – whether you’re single, married, with or without children or retired•Read all our budget coverage in fullAll figures supplied by Turquoise Training & Consultancy (some have been rounded to nearest pound).Related: From single parents to landlords: how will the budget affect people? Continue reading...

£30bn of extra spending and tax cuts is money chancellor might have saved for a rainy day, says Treasury forecasterPhilip Hammond will allow the government’s spending deficit to rise next year as he seeks to pay for the first round of extra NHS spending and a series of measures that will “bring an end to the era of austerity”.The chancellor sanctioned a rise from 1.2% to 1.4% in the annual deficit between this year and 2019/20 as he sought to honour promises made by the prime minister to boost spending on health, local authority housing and a freeze on fuel duty. Continue reading...

Chancellor declares austerity is coming to an end with budget making little reference to risks of a no-deal BrexitPhilip Hammond declared “austerity is coming to an end,” on Monday, as he sought to reassure voters, and shore up the morale of fractious Tory MPs Theresa May needs to back her Brexit deal by peppering his budget speech with spending pledges and a surprise income tax cut.As negotiations with the EU27 enter their frantic final weeks, the chancellor cast off his cautious reputation and opted to spend almost all of a £68bn windfall handed to him over the next five years by the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).Related: Is austerity in the UK really over after 2018's budget?Working people cannot be fobbed off again with promises of a better tomorrow that never comes. Continue reading...

Philip Hammond set out his tax and spending plans – with more for road repairs than pupilsAn extra £420m was made available immediately for local authorities to tackle potholes and other minor road works. The AA had asked for a £1bn pothole fund to fill in the craters that are costing motorists dear.However, it was more than the £400m to help schools in England “buy the little extras they need”, equivalent to £10,000 per primary school and £50,000 per secondary school. The Labour MP Jess Phillips criticised the chancellor’s announcement that the money was spending on “kit”. She tweeted: “Phil my kids school is talking about shutting early on Fridays because they can’t staff it. It’s not because they don’t have footballs. FFS (the F is not fiscal).”The government announced new projects will no longer be funded by the private finance initiative (PFI), whose reputation was further tarnished by the collapse of the construction group Carillion. Its successor – PF2 – will also be scrapped.A new levy on non-recycled plastic packaging, meaning plastic with less than 30% recycled content will be taxed.£60m for planting trees.The basic personal allowance, or the part of your income where there is no income tax paid, rises from £11,850 to £12,500. This is a year earlier than expected and fulfils a manifesto pledge. It is worth £130 a year to 26 million taxpayers in the 20% income tax band.The starting point for 40% tax jumps to £50,00 from £46,350. That means an £860 gain for someone on £50,000, although increases to National Insurance peg the total gain back to £520.The national living wage, for workers aged over 25, will increase from £7.83 per hour to £8.21 in April, a 4.9% rise.Tobacco duty to rise with inflation plus 2%.Duty on Beer, cider and spirits – a boost for pubs and the whisky industry respectively – to be frozen for the next year.Wine did not get off as lightly and duty will rise in line with the retail price index.Fuel duty frozen for ninth year in a row.Tech firms, whose tax affairs are a regular lightning rod for criticism, are targeted with a new levy worth £400m per year. The digital services tax – to be imposed on search engines, social media platforms and online marketplaces – will be levied on UK-generated revenues of profitable firms with global revenues above £500m. So Facebook, Google and Amazon will all have to pay the tax.The high street is helped out with a third taken off business rates for certain retail premises.£675m to create a “future high streets fund” that councils can access to redevelop their high streets.Self-employed people who work for large and medium-sized companies will be affected by changes to rules around their tax status. They could be forced on the payroll if they work in the private sector.The controversial welfare reform will receive £1bn extra over five years to help claimants cope with the transition to a new system.There will also be payments for increased work allowances in universal credit, aimed at helping low-income working families, rising from £545m next year to £1.7bn per year by 2023/24.A £2bn boost for mental health funding.The NHS budget will increase by £20.5bn a year in real terms by 2023-24, as previously announced.An extra £650m in social care funding for local authorities in England next year.The independent body producing economic forecasts for the Treasury, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), predicted growth of 1.6% in 2019 (up from 1.2% in March forecasts), 1.4% in 2020 and 2021, 1.5% in 2022 and 1.6% in 2023.The OBR predicted government borrowing of £31.8bn in 2019/20 (down from £33.9bn previously forecast), £26.7bn in 2020/21, £23.8bn in 2021/2, £20.8bn in 2022-23 and £19.8bn in 2023/24. It had previously forecast borrowing of £45.2bn borrowing this year and £21.4bn in 2022-23.£30bn to improve roads, including £25.3bn for the major roads network.An additional £950m for the Scottish government between 2018 and 2021, with an extra £550m for the Welsh government over the same period and £320m for Northern Ireland.In a bid to boost house construction, the government announced the removal of the borrowing cap on local authority housebuilding.£1bn for the Ministry of Defence this year and next for cyber-defence, anti-submarine capabilities and maintaining the pace of the Dreadnought submarine programme.£160m in extra funding for counter-terrorism policing by 2019-20.£2bn to be brought in over next five years by measures to tackle tax avoidance and evasion.£500m in extra departmental spending on preparations for Brexit, on top of the £2.2bn already announced, and the extra £1.5bn announced last year. Continue reading...

Despite promises to the public, the chancellor has eased, not ended, harsh fiscal measuresPhilip Hammond knew what he had to do. With Theresa May sitting behind him, the chancellor’s job was to put flesh on the bones of the prime minister’s promise to the British public that the age of austerity was coming to an end.He made all the right noises. There was extra money to smooth the introduction of universal credit, now more generous than the benefits it is replacing. There was the carrot dangled in front of cabinet colleagues that they would have more money to divide up in next year’s spending round. There were dollops of extra cash for schools, anti-terrorism policing, repairing potholes, and anti-submarine surveillance. Continue reading...

Chancellor says ‘austerity finally coming to an end’, announcing £400m for ‘little extras’ for schools and £1.7bn for universal credit work allowances

Financial stocks also boosted by HSBC results as FTSE 100 enjoys best day for weeksShares in carmakers were boosted on Monday by a report that China is considering cutting vehicle sales tax to boost demand, helping European stock markets rebound after last week’s mauling.Financial stocks also contributed to the rally, thanks to strong results from Europe’s biggest bank, HSBC, as well as the decision by Standard & Poor’s not to downgrade the Italian government’s credit rating. Continue reading...

Short-term spending aims to placate a public the PM thinks is sick of austerityWatching Philip Hammond deliver his third budget, it was hard to avoid thinking that an election must be in the offing. Chancellors normally show their mean streak when parliaments are young and squirrel away any available cash so that they can give money away as polling day approaches.Not this time, though. The chancellor was in the position of knowing that public borrowing this year is on course to be £12bn lower than was predicted in the spring – an extremely happy outcome given the economy’s mediocre performance.Related: Hammond says end of austerity is in sight as he boosts spendingRelated: Key points from budget 2018 – at a glance Continue reading...

The economic blowback from Brexit is unknowable, but even so, Philip Hammond is fixing none of the country’s woesHere was a pothole budget, a light spray of makeshift asphalt over the riskiest craters in the public sector. The end of austerity? No, just minor repairs to a little of the damage they have done; things sounding good but signifying little.This was a traditional Tory budget, with benefits still frozen for the poorest while three-quarters of the winnings from raising personal tax allowances flow to the top half of earners. As John Major warned, universal credit would have collapsed, and taken the government with it, without a bung. Enough? Its structural defects may sink it yet. Welcome gestures, like taxing the Amazons and Googles, turn out to be a slap on the wrist. A one-off £10,000 gift per primary school is almost insulting, as was the small sop for social care, while police and local councils are left high and dry.Welcome gestures, like taxing the Amazons and Googles, turn out to be a slap on the wristRelated: Budget 2018: Jeremy Corbyn lambasts 'broken promise budget' – Politics live Continue reading...

Austerity has been a self-defeating policy. It is not enough to abandon it in rhetoric, it must be dispensed with in substanceIt was Hyman Minsky, one of the 20th century’s most formidable economic thinkers, who claimed “the game of policy making is rigged. The Prince is constrained by the theory of his intellectuals”. Minsky argued politicians – the Princes in his Hamlet allusion – who believed themselves above influence were, in fact, limited by the beliefs used to determine the options that are presented to them. Since 2010, the Conservative chancellor’s austerity has shown that the game of policymaking is rigged, and has become increasingly so. Austerity to a very large extent excluded policies that would have contributed to sustainable prosperity. Instead, it promoted a self-defeating idea that this country could retain its economic vigour by a form of economic bloodletting. This failed because throttling back on aggregate demand when the country needed it most left the patient gasping. On the ground, the result has been to extend privatisation and diminish the public realm. Voters are fed up with this approach. Philip Hammond is canny enough a politician to recognise that – in rhetoric.That is why Mr Hammond claimed “austerity is coming to an end” during his Budget speech and has chosen to spend government money on politically sensitive parts of the welfare state. More money for the National Health Service, for schools and social security is to be welcomed. Properly taxing global tech companies who have got away with paying negligible amounts of tax despite profiting from advertising in this country is a good thing. In some ways, as several have pointed out, this felt like a pre-election budget, with tax cuts and fuel duty freezes warming the hearts of traditional Tories, while turning on the spending taps defuses Labour’s attack. In doing so Mr Hammond has spent his better than expected tax receipts to present a crowd-pleasing budget. And he still has the room to borrow further. This hedging is understandable given the fractious politics of the Conservative party. The chancellor knows that the Tory party remains deeply divided over the prime minister’s Chequers blueprint for a future relationship with the European Union once this country leaves the EU. A “no deal” Brexit remains a distinct possibility. So he has retained the financial room to restore demand should a serious crisis befall this nation, which a hard Brexit surely would mean that it will. Continue reading...

Increases for universal credit, defence and schools in budget alongside digital services taxPhilip Hammond claimed that “austerity is coming to an end” as he took advantage of better-than-expected tax revenues to promise a £30bn boost in public spending by 2024.The chancellor used a 71-minute budget speech to announce immediate short-term increases in spending on universal credit, defence and equipment for schools.Related: Key points from budget 2018 – at a glance Continue reading...

Our writers react to the chancellor’s final budget before the UK leaves the EURelated: Budget 2018 'biggest giveaway since 2010', says OBR – Politics liveRelated: Toilet jokes, missing rabbits and Nick Clegg calling: Hammond's budget humour Continue reading...

All the day’s economic and financial news, as shares rally across Europe.

Philip Hammond has delivered his budget – here are the main points, with political analysis

British consumers rein in borrowing money for cars amid falling vehicle salesBritish consumers have reined in their borrowing on car finance deals amid falling vehicle sales triggered by new emissions tests.Figures from the Bank of England showed annual growth in consumer credit – on personal loans, credit cards and car finance deals – dropped to 7.7% in September to the lowest level since June 2015.Related: Car production in UK falls year-on-year for fourth month in a row Continue reading...

What to expect from Philip Hammond’s speech tomorrowHow will the budget affect core sectors of the economy and public finances? Here is our checklist of what to expectBrexit costs Continue reading...

This is supposed to be the last budget before Brexit. Without a radical shift in policy Theresa May’s rhetoric of ‘ending austerity’ is fundamentally disingenuousWhen Theresa May addressed the Conservative party conference earlier this month, her audience were primed for what she had to say about Brexit. But the most interesting part of the speech was when she pledged to “end austerity”. The British public are fed up with the idea that after the financial crash the country could cut itself to growth. But the state has been deliberately rolled back, reducing aggregate demand when the economy would have benefited from it. The result has been an immiseration of ordinary people and the forced decay of the public realm. Austerity failed as it turned a nascent recovery into stagnation.The problem for Mrs May’s Treasury is that it has to square two conflicting aims: that of ending austerity and that of meeting self-imposed fiscal targets. By borrowing more, and with stronger than expected tax receipts, there’s a possibility that the chancellor, Philip Hammond, could in Monday’s budget ensure that no government department need face any drop in its real-terms spending per person after 2020. That might be construed as ending austerity. Getting to that point depends largely on whether Mrs May is capable of successfully navigating the intellectual and political minefield that is Brexit. Continue reading...

One of Hammond’s challenges is to show that eight years of cuts have not caused economic harmPhilip Hammond is a fiscal conservative. He wants taxes to be as low as possible, would like to see the government balancing its books and is unhappy with national debt at its current levels.The chancellor’s problem, as he prepares for the budget, is that he is one of a dying breed. There are no longer many fiscal conservatives around, even in his own party. Continue reading...

Theresa May’s pledge to end austerity has put Philip Hammond on the spot. But even with billions in extra tax receipts, caution will be his watchwordIt may not have been hugely noticeable, but Philip Hammond was making an effort to be more upbeat at this year’s Tory conference. Attacks on him as the “Eeyore chancellor” for his gloomy Brexit outlook had convinced his team that he needed a note of positivity – so he began talking up the “Brexit deal dividend” that would come when a good agreement was reached with the EU.Yet even during chats with MPs at the febrile event in Birmingham, colleagues were left in no doubt about his priorities. He was clear that whatever the potential gains in the future, now was not the time for a spending splurge. Brexit made everything far too unpredictable. Continue reading...

Rising political instability and trade disputes are symptoms of the rampant disease of inequality, and rich men giving away their billions is not the answerThere are two worrying things to consider about the world economy in 2018 – beyond the obvious risks of Brexit, Donald Trump’s trade war with China and steep losses on the financial markets.First, there is the news that the world’s billionaires made more money last year than at any time in recorded history. The richest people on Earth increased their wealth by a fifth to $8.9tn in 2017, according to Swiss bank UBS. Continue reading...

The Economist’s rosy profile of Australia is in some ways an oddly timed piece given the insecurities many in this country are feelingThis week The Economist magazine featured Australia on its front page, stating “Aussie Rules: What the world can learn from Australia”. In some ways it is an oddly timed piece given the insecurities many in this country are feeling – coming as it did in a week when about 150,000 people rallied in Melbourne for better wages, and in which the stock market slid five days in a row. Is it a case that Australians have become the grumpy ones who can’t see how good we have it, or is it time to end stories about the “Australian economic miracle”?It’s not all that surprising really to have a magazine based in London as it experiences the absurd hit on its economy from the Brexit idiocy look wistfully to Australia. And given this week Tony Abbott advised the Brits to just give the EU a take it or leave it offer, many in Britain could well be forgiven for wondering just how did Australia manage to not be in an economic mire given the competency bar for leadership in this country appears to be so low.Related: ACTU rallies: estimated 150,000 workers march for 'better deal' on payRelated: Enterprise bargaining is out of reach for most workers. We need a better system | Josh Bornstein Continue reading...

A job that provides rising living standards is a thing of the past. Now the route to wealth is through property and pensionsIt is often said that people are defined by their work. Whether the job is in mining, teaching or engineering, it provides an income, status, friends and a sense of community.Yet for a long time now work has become secondary to being a savvy consumer, a homeowner (or, better still, a multiple homeowner) and a pension saver. It’s not a trend the Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party recognises. But it’s a sad fact that a job is no longer the primary route to a better life, unless promotions – which often only add to the stress and long hours that employers already demand – are part of the plan.Young people have very little influence at work: the baby-boomer generation runs things Continue reading...

We ask residents and local politicians in Lancashire whether Theresa May’s proclamation offers much hope for better timesThe shoppers are out in force at the start of half-term in Wigan. The autumn sun is low in the sky and the drizzle that can drench south Lancashire – the kind that made the air here perfect for spinning cotton a century ago – has stopped.For a town that is among the hardest-hit by council budget cuts, according to a recent Cambridge University study, there is little evidence of austerity on a day like today. The town appears to be doing well, despite some derelict buildings among the bars and nightclubs on King Street, the complaints over the three-weekly bin collections, and the decrepit state of the often-delayed trains to Manchester.Working poor is an amazing thing to say in this day and age. If you work you shouldn't have to be poor, but people are Continue reading...

Philip Hammond will have to come up with extra funds for Theresa May’s £20bn pledgeBritish taxpayers will soon learn how the government plans to finance Theresa May’s pledge to increase spending on the NHS by £20bn by 2023.After months of intense speculation, Philip Hammond, the chancellor, will on Monday announce the tax and spending changes required to accommodate the extra funds in his budget.Related: Omnishambles: five big budget bust-ups of recent years Continue reading...

Falls in Europe follow nervous US trading as investors question tech giants’ valuationsGlobal markets chalked up their longest weekly losing streak in five years on Friday, as Wall Street reacted to worse-than-expected results from US tech giants.The MSCI all-country world index, which tracks shares across stock markets in 47 developed and emerging countries, closed down 3.7% on Friday. Continue reading...

Trump’s regulatory and tax policies have aided growth but he will bear blame for any downturnThe US president, Donald Trump, claims credit for “the greatest ever” economy and constantly contrasts economic conditions today with the historically weak recovery under President Barack Obama. With growth this year more than 3%, unemployment at 3.7% and more job openings than unemployed people, the economy has greatly improved on Trump’s watch. The macroeconomic indicators are the best in decades.Meanwhile, Obama, too, claims credit for the strong economy, arguing that his policies prevented a far worse downturn following the 2008 financial crisis. Neither Trump’s hyperbole nor Obama’s selective memory comes as a surprise.Related: EU members should be wary of stealing London's super-sized financial sector | Howard DaviesAmerican presidents get too much credit and too much blame from voters and historians for what happens on their watch Continue reading...

NIESR warns if no agreement reached, chancellor’s spending power will be much reducedThe impact of Brexit on next week’s budget has been spelled out by one of Britain’s leading economic forecasters, with the difference between a soft and no-deal outcome worth around £15bn over the next five years for Philip Hammond.According to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), the chancellor could increase spending on public services above and beyond the £20bn promised for the NHS - but only if Britain retains the closest possible relationship with the EU following its departure.Related: Philip Hammond can't announce an end to austerity. Brexit won't allow itRelated: Britain's last budget before Brexit needs to be bold: experts debate dataRelated: Frictionless Brexit trade deal would bolster budget – Hammond Continue reading...

US and European markets bounce back after Asia falls into a bear market

Shadow chancellor estimates cost at £108.2bn and pledges to take ‘large-scale action’The shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, has said Labour would reverse cuts made by the government since 2010 as Labour highlighted more than £108bn needed to “end austerity”.Labour’s pre-budget review said it would take £42bn to reverse departmental spending cuts. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) had already highlighted another £19bn needed to stop further cuts to government. Continue reading...

Markets fall from Sydney to Shanghai as analyst warns that broad selloff could turn into a ‘capitulation’Shares in Asia Pacific have plunged into bear market territory and wiped billions off the values of companies as one analyst warned that the losses could be a harbinger of a wholesale “capitulation”.After the worst day for tech stocks on Wall Street for seven years, markets were in retreat from Sydney to Shanghai as concerns about the global economy and rising borrowing costs were compounded by local factors.Related: Dow Jones falls 600 points as market volatility continues –as it happenedThere are many symptoms but no one can diagnose the illness.Geopolitics, rising bond U.S. bond yields, a more hawkish looking U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), slowing Chinese growth, a strong U.S. dollar and the already well known problems in some emerging economies have all contributed to the market unease....and the VIX spiked to over 26, a level last seen in February.This similarity obfuscates two (related) differences. First, less enthusiasm on the part of #investors to buy the dip. Second, accumulated evidence that the #Fed no longer has the #markets back covered as in the past pic.twitter.com/23W7EhdOfeBad day for Aussie stocks with #ASX200 down to lowest in a year. Now on longest losing streak since Sept. 10. Financials have entered a bear market. #ausbiz #auspoll @BloombergAU @markets pic.twitter.com/5XwTuUiPE5Chart: South Korea's stocks in bear-market territory - pic.twitter.com/1mkOs2whpfIf the month ended today, it would be the worst monthly decline for the S&P 500 Total Return Index since February 2009: -8.8%. $SPX pic.twitter.com/9rWxn1k8qDRelated: Stock market investors are finally facing up to global turmoil Continue reading...

The gap between rich and poor has been widening for decades, driving a climate of mistrust that harms us allFrom Adam Smith onwards, economists have recognised that trust is the glue that binds societies together. Nations in which people trust each other have stronger institutions, are more open, have less corruption, grow faster and are nicer places to live. Trust is notable by its absence in police states.So it is a matter of concern that trust has become an increasingly rare commodity. In the US, there has been a precipitous drop in faith in the government. Almost four out of five Americans trusted Washington to do the right thing when Eisenhower and John F Kennedy were in the White House. Under Donald Trump, that has fallen to one in five. In Britain, Theresa May is trying to finesse a Brexit deal at a time when parliament is even less trusted than the banks. By a distance, the most trusted institution in the UK is the military. We don’t trust big business, we don’t trust the City, we don’t trust the newspapers – and we certainly don’t trust politicians. Continue reading...

Brexit and future of diesel vehicles blamed for 16.8% fall compared with last SeptemberThe number of cars built in the UK slumped again year-on-year last month, as global trade tensions and concerns over the shape of Brexit and the future of diesel vehicles took their toll.Car manufacturing fell 16.8% in September from a year ago to 127,051 vehicles, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). It is the fourth month in a row that output has fallen sharply compared to the same month in 2017, with June recording the steepest drop, of 47%.Related: Brexit could kill off entire industries, says Jaguar Land Rover chiefRelated: How has Brexit vote affected UK economy? October verdict Continue reading...

Fresh losses in New York sees the Dow lose its 2018 gains, and the Nasdaq enter a correction

Guardian readers respond to our report on the rise in families desperate for educational support for their childrenAn increasingly effective framework of support for some of the nation’s most vulnerable children and their families, young people with special educational needs and disabilities, that has shown steady progress since the groundbreaking 1978 Warnock report, has been destroyed by the policies of Michael Gove and George Osborne (Crisis looms for special needs education, 23 October).As a former local education authority (LEA) senior adviser and higher education lecturer for special educational needs (SEN), I can’t express how angry I feel over the destruction of these services. It is not “looming”; it is a crisis. Fifteen out of every 100 children have these needs, which include a variety of disabilities from the partially sighted and hearing impaired to children with mild and complex learning difficulties. Educational psychology services, speech therapy, home tuition for sick children, teams of highly qualified specialist support teachers and advisers have been reduced to a rump. Specialist integrated units in mainstream schools are closing. Vandalism is too kind a term. For Nadhim Zahawi to parrot cash spending figures in defence adds insult to injury when the evidence of wrecked services is all around. The worry and stress caused to the families of these deserving children denied their right to life-enhancing education is incalculable.

John McDonnell says he will address leavers’ grievances if failure to do deal with EU leads to snap general electionThe shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, is preparing an anti-austerity budget to deal with the grievances of voters who support Brexit if failure to strike a deal with the EU leads to a snap general election.McDonnell said he understood why people living in the poorer parts of Britain had voted to leave the EU in the 2016 referendum, but added that the chaotic negotiations had led to “instability, insecurity and uncertainty”.Related: My constituents backed Brexit. But I didn’t enter politics to make them poorer | Phil WilsonRelated: Labour has caught the mood of the times. Now it needs new ideas to remake capitalism | Will Hutton Continue reading...

Each month we look at key indicators to see what effect the Brexit process has on growth, prosperity and trade

With optimism low and investment very weak, Philip Hammond faces a difficult task

Ahead of probably the UK’s last budget as a member of the EU, storm clouds are gathering

Shares in heavy-duty equipment maker fall despite better-than-expected profitsCaterpillar left investors concerned on Tuesday after the heavy-duty equipment maker warned that the US’s trade war with China was driving up the cost of its raw materials and dampening the outlook.Shares in the US firm, considered a bellwether for the manufacturing sector, fell more than 7% after it failed to raise its 2018 earnings forecast, prompting fears that a slowdown may be ahead. Continue reading...

Deadlocked talks have led to waning business confidence and sharp fall in order booksBritain’s leading employers’ organisation has urged the government to end Brexit uncertainty after warning that the deadlocked talks have already led to plunging investment, waning business confidence and the sharpest fall in order books in three years.In its latest quarterly health check, the CBI said the impasse in the talks between London and Brussels would bring growth in manufacturing output to a standstill over the coming month.Related: Brexit is like a Premier League side wanting to be relegated | William KeeganRelated: Brexit could kill off entire industries, says Jaguar Land Rover chief Continue reading...