Vanguard Group founder Jack Bogle’s investment strategy was simple, successful and principledThe death on 16 January of Jack Bogle, the founder of the investment company Vanguard Group, was met with a slew of flattering obituaries. Of course, obituaries often praise their subjects. But Bogle’s seemed more laudatory than usual. And I think there is a reason: Bogle was an unusually morally directed man.Of course, we cannot judge his success by his personal wealth. When Bogle established Vanguard in 1975, he set it up as a nonprofit. The company has no outside shareholders; all profits are reflected in lower fees, not dividends. Continue reading...

ILO calls for living wage and union bargaining as automation threatens jobsWorld leaders have been urged by an influential United Nations agency to sign up to a universal labour guarantee to bolster fundamental workers’ rights, including adequate living wages and collective bargaining through trade unions.Designed to address rapid changes in the workplace triggered by the rise of the robot economy and technological automation, the International Labour Organization said a package of measures was required to put the world economy on a sustainable footing for the future.Related: Workers’ rights? Bosses don’t care – soon they’ll only need robots | John Harris Continue reading...

US markets dropped sharply following falls from Europe and Asia as the IMF trimmed its economic forecasts for 2019Stock markets across the world fell Tuesday amid further signs that the global economy is weakening.US markets dropped sharply following falls across Europe and Asia as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) trimmed its economic forecasts for 2019 and 2020 and pointed to risks including trade tensions and rising interest rates. China’s government said its economy grew in 2018 at the slowest pace since 1990.Related: Shareholders received record dividends of almost £100bn in 2018 Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the first day of the World Economic Forum in Davos, including appearances from Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro, Mike Pompeo, Sir David Attenborough and New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern

Average weekly earnings were up by 3.4% in November – the biggest rise since July 2008The spending power of British workers increased to its highest level in two years in November following the biggest rise in real pay since September 2016.Average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, rose by 3.3% on the year, the biggest increase since 2008 and well ahead of inflation, which fell to 2.3% in November. Continue reading...

We’re used to chocolate bars shrinking while staying at the same price but it’s happening to many everyday products – and people living with food insecurity are paying the priceIf late capitalism can be boiled down to a social media-friendly phrase, look no further than “shrinkflation” – when goods are made smaller but still sold at exactly the same price. Figures from the Office for National Statistics reveal that as many as 206 products were made smaller between September 2015 and June 2017.High-profile examples include Mars shrinking Maltesers, M&Ms and Minstrels by up to 15%, while Birds Eye cut the number of fish fingers in a packet from 12 to 10. The makers of Toblerone sent the internet into frenzy in 2016 after it widened the gap between the distinctive triangular chunks. Last year, after the backlash, it reverted the bar to its original shape – but bigger, and with a higher price. Continue reading...

High street gloom spreads online with worst December sales growth in nearly 20 yearsOnline retailers experienced their worst Christmas sales growth in nearly 20 years in 2018 as shoppers reined in buying electrical goods.Sales rose 3.6% in December compared with growth of almost 12% for 2018 as a whole, according to online retail body IMRG – which does not include Amazon in its figures. IMRG said low consumer confidence had put a dampener on spending. Continue reading...

Business lobby group provides region-by-region breakdown of potential damageNorth-east England would suffer the biggest decline in economic output of any UK region by the middle of the 2030s if the country leaves the EU without a deal, according to an analysis of government figures by Britain’s leading business lobby group.The Confederation of British Industry said the region could be among the hardest hit by a no-deal Brexit in less than 70 days’ time given the high percentage of exports of goods to the EU compared with other parts of the country.Related: No-deal Brexit would put thousands of UK jobs at risk, CBI to warn Continue reading...

Christine Lagarde’s economic health check in Davos hints that Trump should change courseThese days it does not matter how much the US economy is pumped with steroids, if China cannot keep pace, the rest of the world slows down. Even the US begins to stagger.That is the message from the International Monetary Fund, which has supplemented its usual March and October biannual health checks on the global economy with a handy interim report timed to coincide with the Davos business and political leaders’ summit.Related: Davos 2019: Attenborough warns that the Garden of Eden is no more - live! Continue reading...

Rising protectionism and slide in US-China ties fuel pessimism of chief executives, says PwCPessimism among chief executives has risen sharply in the past 12 months as the leaders of the world’s biggest companies have taken fright at rising protectionism and the deteriorating relationship between the US and China.The survey of chief executives conducted by the consultancy firm PwC to mark the start of the World Economic Forum in Davos showed a sixfold increase to 30% in the number of CEOs expecting global growth to slow during 2019.Davos is a Swiss ski resort now more famous for hosting the annual four-day conference for the World Economic Forum. For participants it is a festival of networking. Getting an invitation is a sign you have made it – and the elaborate system of badges reveals your place in the Davos hierarchy.

Escalation of Trump’s trade war with China also a threat, says World Economic OutlookA no-deal Brexit and a sharper slowdown in China are the biggest risks to growth in the global economy in 2019, the International Monetary Fund has warned in its latest economic outlook.Amid already falling levels of growth in Europe, China and Japan, the IMF said an escalation of the trade war between Donald Trump and Beijing over the coming months and the UK tumbling out of the EU without a deal would force further downgrades in its forecasts for growth. Continue reading...

Firms use stealth tactics to offset rising costs and competition on the high streetMore than 200 different consumer products, from toilet roll to chocolate, have shrunk in size as manufacturers and retailers use stealth tactics to offset rising costs and increasing competition on the high street.According to figures from the Office for National Statistics, as many as 206 products were made smaller between September 2015 and June 2017 – more than double the number that increased in size. Continue reading...

Fears China may not be able to help shore up weakening global growth as GDP figures are slowest nation has reported in 28 yearsChina’s economy grew 6.6% in 2018, its slowest pace in almost 30 years, confirming a slowdown in the world’s second largest economy that could threaten global growth.After years of breakneck expansion, official data on Monday confirmed that China’s growth in 2018 was the country’s slowest reported rate since 1990 and down from 6.8% in 2017.Related: A burst of good news can’t hide the economic hazards ahead in 2019Related: US-China trade war: is the time ripe for peace to break out? | Larry Elliott Continue reading...

Critics hit out at ministers’ proposed changes that claim to simplify grant distributionMinisters have been accused of a “stitch-up” over proposals to redraw the funding formula for councils in a way critics say will redirect scarce cash from deprived inner cities to affluent Conservative-voting shires.The proposed changes – which include the recommendation that grant allocations should no longer be weighted to reflect the higher costs of poverty and deprivation – come amid increasing concern over the sustainability of local authority finances.Related: Labour-run areas suffer Tory cuts the most. It’s an ignored national scandal | Owen JonesRelated: Tory county council runs out of cash to meet obligations Continue reading...

Global elite at Davos 2019 must do more than talk about real-world problemsDavos this year will be like Hamlet without the prince. Donald Trump was all set to be the star of the show for the second year running but has decided that giving a keynote address to a hall full of billionaires is politically problematical at a time when the US government is shut down.Emmanuel Macron is giving the World Economic Forum a miss for similar reasons. If you have been dubbed the president of the rich the last place you want to be seen is at the annual gathering of the 1%. Theresa May has also decided she has better things to do with her time.Related: Davos 2019: do the global elite have the will to fix the world's problems?A child is dying every two minutes from something that could be easily and cheaply treated Continue reading...

As many world leaders stay away, will any progress be made at ‘family reunion for the people who broke the world’?Political and economic problems loom heavily over the global elite as they gather at Davos for the World Economic Forum (WEF). But is there any political will to fix them?Related: Global tensions holding back climate change fight, says WEFThrilled the Duke of Cambridge is taking part in the first ever plenary panel on global mental health @Davos later this month. Thank you @wef for making mental health a priority in 2019. Looking forward to being there for @UnitedGMH asking leaders to make sure 2019 is #timetoact https://t.co/WtSDoF2kahMostrarei nosso desejo de fazer comércio com o mundo todo, prezando pela liberdade econômica, acordos bilaterais e saúde fiscal. Com esses pilares, o Brasil caminhará na direção do pleno emprego e da prosperidade. Espero trazer boas experiências e avanços ao nosso país!she doesn't want to hang out with the *citizens of snow wear* https://t.co/TVRFXO0JXF Continue reading...

Shoshana Zuboff’s new book is a chilling exposé of the business model that underpins the digital world. Observer tech columnist John Naughton explains the importance of Zuboff’s work and asks the author 10 key questionsWe’re living through the most profound transformation in our information environment since Johannes Gutenberg’s invention of printing in circa 1439. And the problem with living through a revolution is that it’s impossible to take the long view of what’s happening. Hindsight is the only exact science in this business, and in that long run we’re all dead. Printing shaped and transformed societies over the next four centuries, but nobody in Mainz (Gutenberg’s home town) in, say, 1495 could have known that his technology would (among other things): fuel the Reformation and undermine the authority of the mighty Catholic church; enable the rise of what we now recognise as modern science; create unheard-of professions and industries; change the shape of our brains; and even recalibrate our conceptions of childhood. And yet printing did all this and more.Why choose 1495? Because we’re about the same distance into our revolution, the one kicked off by digital technology and networking. And although it’s now gradually dawning on us that this really is a big deal and that epochal social and economic changes are under way, we’re as clueless about where it’s heading and what’s driving it as the citizens of Mainz were in 1495.Digital technology is separating the citizens in all societies into two groups: the watchers and the watchedDemocracy has slept, while surveillance capitalists amassed unprecedented concentrations of knowledge and power Continue reading...

Consumer borrowing is falling, which is no bad thing. But it’s uncertainty, not regulation, that’s acting as the brakeA sharp decline in household spending on the never-never, and especially spending on credit cards, is a trend that must surely be welcomed. The Bank of England said last week in its quarterly credit health check that high street banks were about to witness the biggest decline in such borrowing since records began 12 years ago.Threadneedle Street said its index of demand for credit card lending over the three months to the end of March had dropped to -20.7 from -7.2.The shocking element of the story is how much harm a fall in personal lending can cause to the British economy Continue reading...

When the president is proud to close government and proud to slash taxes for the rich, American workers get shaftedOne of the least talked-about consequences of the partial shutdown of the US government – courtesy of Donald “I’m proud to shut down the government” Trump – is its negative effect on the US economy.Related: Republicans’ lack of alarm over the shutdown reveals a disturbing truth | Ross BarkanThe tax-cut steroid wore off within six months of its passageTrumponomics is an abject failure because its premises are flawedRelated: How Trump has changed America in two yearsRobert Reich, a former US secretary of labor, is professor of public policy at the University of California at Berkeley and the author of Saving Capitalism: For the Many, Not the Few and The Common Good. Continue reading...

Doomsayers warn of a slump as early as next year – and it might be too late to prove them wrongAlmost as soon as the world’s most eminent economic doomsayers began to warn about an impending slump, possibly as soon as 2020, policymakers were out of the blocks, racing to avert the worst effects.The new year message from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and a string of similarly gloomy commentators struck a chord, apparently within weeks of sounding the alarm that a global recession and possibly a credit crunch to rival 2008’s was on the way.Related: What are biggest risks to the global economy in 2019? | Kenneth Rogoff Continue reading...

Globalisation, populism and Brexit are among the issues at the World Economic ForumPolitical and economic problems loom heavily over the global elite as they gather at Davos for the World Economic Forum. But is there any political will to fix them?Related: Global tensions holding back climate change fight, says WEFThrilled the Duke of Cambridge is taking part in the first ever plenary panel on global mental health @Davos later this month. Thank you @wef for making mental health a priority in 2019. Looking forward to being there for @UnitedGMH asking leaders to make sure 2019 is #timetoact https://t.co/WtSDoF2kahMostrarei nosso desejo de fazer comércio com o mundo todo, prezando pela liberdade econômica, acordos bilaterais e saúde fiscal. Com esses pilares, o Brasil caminhará na direção do pleno emprego e da prosperidade. Espero trazer boas experiências e avanços ao nosso país!she doesn't want to hang out with the *citizens of snow wear* https://t.co/TVRFXO0JXF Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news

Dutch exporters warn of major delivery problems if Britain crashes out of the EUMeet Brexit’s latest potential victim: the Mother’s Day bouquet. While the tumult in Westminster is keeping political pundits in clover, the decision by MPs to vote down Theresa May’s deal this week has sent petals flying among Dutch exporters, who are responsible for 80% of the flowers sold in British shops.As the risk of a no-deal Brexit was raised, LTO Nederland, the organisation that represents Dutch agricultural producers, formally warned its members of major problems if they do not get products into the UK before Brexit day on 29 March.Related: Businesses to demand emergency measures if MPs reject Brexit deal Continue reading...

Gloomy end to year for retailers but sales growth for 2018 as a whole was up on 2017British consumers reined in their spending in December after splashing out during November on Black Friday promotions, according to official figures that confirmed the tough festive shopping period on the high street.The Office for National Statistics said the quantity of goods bought last month fell by 0.9% compared to November, when Black Friday deals encouraged shoppers to bring forward some of their Christmas spending. Continue reading...

UK lenders predict falling demand for credit cards and mortgages, as Brexit crisis rolls on

Lords report accuses ministers of ‘inflation shopping’ with tactical use of RPI and CPIStudents and rail passengers have been unfairly penalised by the government using a “flawed” measure of inflation that needs to be urgently fixed, according to a highly critical report from peers.Ministers have been able to use a tactic of “inflation shopping” to select the retail prices index measure of inflation when it stands to benefit the exchequer, and the typically lower consumer prices index to keep a lid on outgoings, the House of Lords economic affairs committee said.Related: Student loans: use of RPI costs graduates up to £16,000Related: Rail users to mount 'national day of action' over 3.1% fare rise Continue reading...

It’s not plausible that either Brexit in name only or no exit at all can lead to radical reform of our broken systemThe pound rose, and all was calm on the stock market. As far as the financial markets were concerned, the message was clear: the voting down by MPs of Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement means a delayed Brexit, a softer Brexit or perhaps no Brexit at all. Those with serious wealth in Britain have always been worried that Brexit will lead to radical change. They now think that there will be a perpetuation of the status quo – or something not far removed from it. Hence the pound getting stronger.There’s no question that opting for the quiet life has its attractions. There would be a boost to the economy as companies decided to push ahead with investment plans that had been delayed while the outcome of Brexit was uncertain. And, of course, any economic costs of no deal would be avoided. Continue reading...

Bank of England governor Mark Carney has told MPs that UK banks can cope with disorderly Brexit, but investors believe it’s less likely following Tuesday’s vote

Drop in fuel and clothing prices spur drop to 2.1%, offering respite to consumersUK inflation fell to its lowest level in nearly two years in December after a drop in petrol prices offered some respite to consumers who are reining in spending as Brexit looms.The annual rate dipped to 2.1% from 2.3% in November, the weakest since January 2017, according to the Office for National Statistics. Economists said the drop reduced the likelihood that the Bank of England would raise interest rates in the near future.Inflation is when prices rise. Deflation is the opposite – price decreases over time – but inflation is far more common.Up Continue reading...

Eddie Lampert may be able to keep roughly 400 remaining Sears stores open and save tens of thousands of jobs, at least for nowSears will live on at least for now.The company’s chairman and largest shareholder, Eddie Lampert, won a bankruptcy auction for Sears, averting liquidation of the iconic chain, according to a source familiar with the negotiations. The person agreed to speak on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the negotiation publicly.Related: Closing down sale: is this the end of Sears?Related: Laid-off Sears workers left with nothing – and they say wealthy bosses are to blame Continue reading...

Instead of giving tax breaks to billionaires and large corporations, we must demand that they pay their fair shareDonald Trump tells us the US economy is “absolutely booming”, the “strongest we’ve ever had” and “the greatest in the history of America”.Well, at his Mar-a-Lago country club where the price of admission has doubled to $200,000, he is right. The economy could not be better for the top 1% and corporate America.Related: Donald Trump's fast food banquet – feeding the people Whoppers, as ever | Hannah Jane ParkinsonWhile working families continue to struggle, the US now has more income and wealth inequality than at any time since the 1920s Continue reading...

After extreme weather-related events, there is ‘need for international cooperation’Growing tension between the world’s major powers is the most urgent global risk and makes it harder to mobilise collective action to tackle climate change, according to a report prepared for next week’s World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.Related: Deadly weather: the human cost of 2018's climate disasters – visual guideRelated: US-China trade war: is the time ripe for peace to break out? | Larry Elliott Continue reading...

Shareholders in the stricken airline may feel aggrieved at the hurried sale but it was long overdueWhat a day for democratic debate! Well, not at Flybe. Shareholders, still reeling from the board’s decision last Friday to accept a takeover offer at 1p a share, or just £2.2m, have now learned they won’t get a meaningful vote on the deal. The directors have instead agreed to flog the regional airline’s assets almost immediately at the same price to the same bidder, a consortium comprising Virgin Atlantic, Stobart and investment firm Cyrus.Is that even legal at a public company? It seems it is, or rather it will be on Thursday, which is when Flybe switches its stock market listing from “premium” to “standard” status. The latter does not require shareholders to approve major asset sales. Continue reading...

Markets now turn to assess the prospect of a delayed Brexit and PM’s looming no-confidence vote

All discussion of Brexit or any other issue should be in the context of the need for government to enter emergency mode, writes Caro New, campaigns co-ordinator of the Green partyThe Guardian is the only newspaper to recognise the seriousness of the threat we face from accelerating climate breakdown. Yet you, like Labour, still treat it as an “add-on” – as a separate subject, not something that, in Naomi Klein’s words, changes everything. Thus Jonathan Haidt and Pamela Paresky (Opinion, 10 January) write about the mental effects of childhood stress, never mentioning how terrifying it is for children to live in an environment of existential threat coupled with denial. Thus Owen Jones (Opinion, 10 January) discusses Labour’s Brexit choices and the need to reverse austerity, with no recognition that redistribution must now be within an economy focused on reducing emissions to net zero by 2030, not on “good” growth. All discussion of Brexit or any other policy issue should now be in the context of the need for central and local government to enter emergency mode.

A pledge to help disenfranchised, leave-voting areas will mean nothing without more funds and a department for the regionsCity versus town? It might seem a facile debate in a small country where the interests of both should be aligned. What’s the difference, apart from size? Quite a lot, actually. For the past few decades, lobbying by a group of large cities has placed big population centres at the forefront of what remains of urban policy. Larger cities were seen as the engines of growth, portrayed as the economic saviours for surrounding communities. A contestable point, certainly. But these cities found a welcoming ear in government.The government responded with devolution deals to create combined authorities, led by mayors, in six city-regions, including Greater Manchester, the West Midlands and Merseyside. But Theresa May went cool on the idea, instead preferring to reinvigorate “Brexit Britain”: those places which voted leave in June 2016. The PM even popped into a village up the hill from my Tyneside home to reassure the north (62 of the 73 local authority areas in northern England voted leave) that she was determined to deliver equity across the country: “It is my mission to make sure that ... no community is left behind as we plan both our domestic agenda and our Brexit strategy,” she said. Continue reading...

Martin Steer JP and Christine Walters respond to Rory Stewart’s suggestion that jail terms of less than six months could be scrappedPetty offenders are only jailed way into a long pattern of offending and failure to respond to non-custodial sentences. Prison is employed by magistrates usually as a last resort as the bench knows full well that rehabilitation in these days of austerity is unlikely – it is unlikely even for longer sentences.When the courts have tried all non-custodial punishments escalating from discharges, through fines, to low-level community penalties, medium community penalties, then high-level community penalties, and the drug user/habitual yob on a hair trigger/recidivist hasn’t responded, what does Rory Stewart suggest they do next (Jail terms of six months or less could be scrapped, prisons minister suggests, theguardian.com, 12 January)? Continue reading...

Schools are in urgent need of greater understanding and alternative strategies, writes Dr Simon Gibbs. Funding is a factor, says Paul MoranLast year I gave a paper based on my book Immoral Education: The Assault on Teachers’ Identities, Autonomy and Efficacy to academics in the Netherlands. When I told them that part of my argument was the rate at which young people were being excluded from schools and gave them the figures, the response was that “if that were happening here there would be national outrage”. The UK figures are now even worse (School exclusion rates in London double the national average, 12 January). The most recent figures from the DfE reveal that 7,720 young people were permanently excluded from schools in 2016-17. Of these, more than half were in year 9 or above. Children eligible for free school meals were more than four times more likely to be excluded than those not eligible, children with special educational needs more than six times more likely than those not, and there were disproportionate numbers from certain ethnic heritages among those excluded. Although schools are the agents of this phenomenon, the reasons for this scandal lie deeper in the nature of education and the pressures on schools to perform, and are in urgent need of greater understanding and alternative strategies.

Stock markets are down again as weak eurozone factory output and Chinese trade woes worry investors

Financial markets around the world sell off sharply after drop in Chinese exportsFears are growing over the state of the global economy after China recorded a shock fall in exports, while European factory output declined by the biggest margin in almost three years.In a sign that the worldwide slowdown is gathering pace, official figures showed Chinese exports were down 4.4% in December – the largest fall since 2016 – on the back of faltering demand in most of its key markets. Imports fell 7.6% to reflect waning domestic demand.Related: US-China trade war: is the time ripe for peace to break out? | Larry Elliott Continue reading...

Harold Wilson was right: we need a separate department for the economy to boost growthThe Treasury is the most powerful institution in Whitehall. It is actually a super-ministry combining functions separated in many other countries: management of the economy and control of the public finances.These two functions are not accorded equal weight and never have been. The Treasury has always been primarily a finance ministry that views its main task as ensuring the nation’s budget arithmetic adds up.Related: Why the UK economy needs a platform 9¾ leap of imagination Continue reading...

Labour’s leader stands on the principle that members make party policy – and the majority of them are Remainers‘So what,” the schoolboy son of a friend asked, while being forced to listen to the Today programme on the school run, “was politics before Brexit?”This brought back memories of my own naive inquiry of my father at the end of the second world war: “Will there be any more news, Daddy?” Not too enlightened for an embryonic journalist, but you can see the point.I keep having to remind people that a host of very prosperous people voted Leave, for reasons best known to themselves Continue reading...

The bricks-and-mortar chain is the latest high-profile victim of the shift to online shopping but some wounds are self-inflictedThere can be few bleaker testaments to the beleaguered condition of US retail than the Sears department store in Flatbush, Brooklyn. Once a flagship of the world’s largest retailer, the landmarked art deco building was opened in 1932 by Eleanor Roosevelt, who made the first purchase ever in this location, “a pair of baby booties”, according to the Brooklyn Eagle. There’s little of that historic legacy on display today.There is just one entrance open at the store now. The walls are a dirty beige and much of the merchandise sub-discount. Yet many of the shoppers said they were pleased to come and browse. Unlike hundreds of shuttered stores across the country, it is at least still in business.Related: Sears liquidation looms after $4.4bn takeover deal faulters Continue reading...

First daughter’s name said to be ‘floating around Washington’ but it wouldn’t be her first unconventional roleThe Financial Times reported on Friday that the name of Ivanka Trump is “floating around Washington” regarding the need for a new president of the World Bank.The role will soon be open due to the surprise departure of the current president, Jim Yong Kim. But on politics Twitter, at least, the idea that his replacement might be the first daughter was met with widespread derision.Related: 'Judge me by my enemies': Comey and Trump find common ground in FDR lineRelated: You’d think Ivanka Trump would be worried about her emails. But guess what? | Emma Brockes Continue reading...

Leveraged loans are ringing alarm bells for regulators who fear a repeat of 2008’s mortgage disasterWhen an expert in financial risk at one of the world’s most powerful private equity outfits tells investors to scale down their exposure to a specific corner of the debt market, it is worth taking notice.Henry McVey, who sits on the risk committee at KKR, said last week that the leveraged loan market – a $1.3tn (£1tn) pile of risky corporate loans – had been on a “great run in recent years” but the firm was now cutting its exposure to the asset class to zero.Small changes in default rates in the loans or even in expectations of same could cause a meltdown Continue reading...

Switching from Waitrose to Morrisons could save shoppers £170 a year, survey findsShoppers looking to tighten their belts after the Christmas blowout could save money by online shopping at Morrisons, according to a new Which? survey.The consumer group’s analysis found that on average, the Bradford-based supermarket offered the cheapest online groceries, based on a basket containing 77 popular branded products including Andrex toilet roll, Hovis bread and Cathedral City cheddar cheese. Continue reading...

Manufacturing is struggling, growth is unbalanced – and solving Brexit won’t fix our woesJudged by what is happening in the rest of Europe, Britain’s economic performance in late 2018 was reasonably good. France was paralysed by the gilets jaunes protests, while Germany and Italy flirted with recession. The UK is likely to have grown by 0.3% in the final three months of 2018, and by contrast with the other major European economies that’s not too shabby.Look beneath the bonnet of the economy, though, and things don’t look quite so good. It is not really that growth halved between the third and fourth quarters, because activity was unusually high in the summer and early autumn as a result of the World Cup, a heatwave and a bounce back from the weather-related hit to growth earlier in the year.Related: UK GDP growth slows to 0.3% as manufacturing stalls Continue reading...

Data grabbing | Country diary | Cost of stamps | A question of perspective | Steepest street titleThe solution is surely to use the non-profit Ecosia search engine that plants trees and quite simply guarantees that it protects your data (Together we can thwart big tech’s data grab, Opinion, 7 January)?

The UK economy grew by 0.3% in the three months to November, the weakest rate in six months, dragged lower by a fall in car production

From China to Europe and beyond it is likely to be a nerve-racking yearAs Mark Twain never said: “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you think you know for sure that just ain’t so.” Over the course of this year and next, the biggest economic risks will emerge in those areas where investors think recent patterns are unlikely to change. They will include a growth recession in China, a rise in global long-term real interest rates and a crescendo of populist economic policies that undermine the credibility of central bank independence, resulting in higher interest rates on “safe” advanced-country government bonds.A significant Chinese slowdown may already be unfolding. The US president Donald Trump’s trade war has shaken confidence but this is only a downward shove to an economy that was already slowing as it makes the transition from export- and investment-led growth to more sustainable domestic consumption-led growth. How much the Chinese economy will slow is an open question; but, given the inherent contradiction between an ever-more centralised Party-led political system and the need for a more decentralised consumer-led economic system, long-term growth could fall quite dramatically.Related: How will central bankers cope when the next recession comes?The notion that additional debt is a free lunch is foolish Continue reading...