Exclusive: IMF managing director presses for female empowerment in interview to mark International Women’s DayEmploying more women and tackling sexism in the workplace is the key to making the world economy richer, more equal and less prone to devastating financial collapses, according to the head of the International Monetary Fund.In an interview to mark International Women’s Day next week, Christine Lagarde said some countries could boost the size of their economies by 35% if they abandoned discriminatory laws and took advantage of the skills women had to offer.Related: Davos: head of IMF warns against rising fat-cat payI don’t encounter sexism because I am too old and too tall. It is hard to be sexist towards someone who is older and taller than you Continue reading...

Decline in sector mirrors falls across eurozone, Japan and China, say analystsManufacturers’ optimism about their prospects for the rest of the year fell to a 27-year low last month amid record stockpiling to cope with the potential fallout of a no-deal Brexit, according to a survey of the industry.Worries about the UK leaving the European Union without an agreement also prompted manufacturing firms to cut jobs at the fastest rate since February 2013, the IHS Markit/Cips study found.Related: UK factories slash jobs and stockpile at record rate ahead of Brexit - business live Continue reading...

British manufacturing confidence has dropped, while over the channel the eurozone factory sector is shrinking

Sweden and France among states found by the World Bank to enshrine gender equality in laws, but implementation haphazardIf you’re a woman and want to be on an equal footing with men, it’s best to live and work in Belgium, Denmark, France, Latvia, Luxembourg or Sweden. The World Bank, which has tracked legal changes for the past decade, found these were the only countries in the world to enshrine gender equality in laws affecting work.The bank’s women, business and the law 2019 report, published this week, measured gender discrimination in 187 countries. It found that, a decade ago, no country gave women and men equal legal rights. Continue reading...

America’s economy cooled last quarter, but not as much as feared, as consumer spending slowed

These painkillers don’t work against chronic pain. The UK must find alternatives to help sufferers in deprived areasPeople in Blackpool are twice as likely as the inhabitants of Wokingham to die before they are 70. A recent paper which measured the distribution of opioids not by the number of prescriptions, but in equivalent units of morphine, found that NHS prescriptions of opioid painkillers have been generally rising in England and Wales, but have risen most in the north of England and more in poorer areas. Blackpool, again, tops the list. In part this is because poverty is correlated with chronic physical pain: both men and women in the lowest income quartile report suffering chronic pain at rates much higher than those in the top quartile. That, in turn, reflects that fact that hard physical labour and unemployment are both bad for health in the long term.But the prevalence of pain can’t entirely account for the pattern of prescription. Many forms of chronic pain do not respond well to opioids. For lower back pain the Nice recommendation is not to treat it at all, except perhaps with ibuprofen, exercise and massage. It will go away on its own, or it will not. Figures suggest that only one opioid prescription in eight was written out for cancer pain in 2014. The others were written for conditions where is it much less obvious that they are the best possible treatment. Continue reading...

Readers condemn the massive budget surplus which has been achieved through stringent cuts to public servicesThe severe cuts to children’s services since 2010 reported by the five major children’s charities (Cuts plunge children’s services in England into crisis, charities warn, 26 February) are an indictment of this government and its predecessor’s austerity which no amount of evasive waffle by the minister for children and families can justify. Poverty and material deprivation are known to be detrimental to brain and physical development in early childhood, and the negative effects track into adulthood. Austerity is responsible for both an increase in child poverty and material disadvantage, and a reduction in services which help to mitigate the worst effects. Government policy is blighting the lives of a whole generation of children and setting them up for mental and physical health problems as adults.

Traders still have doubts about the PM getting her deal away despite chance of extra timeThe pound jumped to a fresh 10-month high on Wednesday after it became obvious that Britain will avoid crashing out of the EU without a deal. Obvious, that is, to City traders, who have always bet that a deal is the most likely outcome of the Brexit talks and now believe it to be a racing certainty.Theresa May’s concession of a vote in a fortnight to delay Brexit, which she agreed as a way to keep her own deal in play, was the trigger for a Mexican wave across the City. Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news

Government officials hold talks after they realise UK has shortage of the right palletsThe government is holding talks with distributors after realising that the UK has a dire shortage of the “right sort” of pallets to import and export goods in the event of a no-deal Brexit.The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) will on Tuesday hold meetings with distribution industry representatives about how to keep household goods moving to and from supermarkets if the UK crashes out of the EU next month.Related: Brexit uncertainty slows economy and raises risk of job losses Continue reading...

Average income of the poorest fifth of the population shrunk by 1.6% last year, says ONSIncome inequality across Britain increased over the course of 2018 as cuts to benefits damaged the finances of poorer households while the wealthiest in society got richer, official figures show.According to the Office for National Statistics, the average income of the poorest fifth of the population after inflation contracted by 1.6% in the last financial year ending in 2018, while the average income of the richest fifth rose by 4.7%.Related: Experts debate the Brexit outlook: 'Stand by for gale-force winds' Continue reading...

Two former members of Bank of England’s rate-setting committee assess the economic future

Latest Guardian analysis shows companies shutting plants and pausing investment

Each month we look at key indicators to see what effect the Brexit process has on growth, prosperity and trade

Companies around world need to repay or refinance as much as $4tn over next three yearsThe global economy faces escalating risks from rising levels of corporate debt, with companies around the world needing to repay or refinance as much as $4tn (£3.1tn) over the next three years, according to the OECD.Sounding the alarm over the scale of the debt mountain built up over the past decade since the last financial crisis, the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development found that global company borrowing has ballooned to reach $13tn by the end of last year – more than double the level before the 2008 crash.Related: Analysts urge caution over hopes for US-China trade solution Continue reading...

Despite Donald Trump saying deal ‘could happen fairly soon’, analysts warn against over-optimismTrade tensions between the US and China could rapidly rekindle despite rising hopes of a deal, analysts have warned, after Donald Trump promised to pause the launch of higher import tariffs on Chinese goods.The US president announced late on Sunday that he would delay raising tariffs on as much as $200bn (£153bn) of Chinese goods from 10% to 25% after progress was made in talks between Washington and Beijing, averting the imposition of the higher rate from 1 March.I am pleased to report that the U.S. has made substantial progress in our trade talks with China on important structural issues including intellectual property protection, technology transfer, agriculture, services, currency, and many other issues. As a result of these very...... Continue reading...

Shares surge in Asia and on Wall Street after president Trump delays a planned hike in Chinese import tariffs

Delay would be preferable to leaving the EU without an agreement, says ABIBritain’s insurers are to warn that a no-deal Brexit would be an “unforgivable act of economic and social self-harm”, arguing that a delay to the process would be preferable to leaving the EU without an agreement.In the strongest warning on Brexit yet from the Association of British Insurers (ABI), the industry body’s director general, Huw Evans, will say in a speech on Monday evening that “leaving the world’s single biggest trading block overnight with nothing but WTO [World Trade Organization] rules to replace it … would be wholly inadequate and unprecedented”.Related: UK and US agree post-Brexit derivatives trading deal Continue reading...

Asian shares rise sharply after US president says he will hold a summit with Xi Jinping to conclude an agreement to end trade standoffShares in Asia have soared after Donald Trump said he would delay an increase in tariffs on Chinese goods, citing “substantial progress” in trade talks with China over the weekend.Related: Memo of misunderstanding: Trump clashes with trade adviser over China talksI am pleased to report that the U.S. has made substantial progress in our trade talks with China on important structural issues including intellectual property protection, technology transfer, agriculture, services, currency, and many other issues. As a result of these very..........productive talks, I will be delaying the U.S. increase in tariffs now scheduled for March 1. Assuming both sides make additional progress, we will be planning a Summit for President Xi and myself, at Mar-a-Lago, to conclude an agreement. A very good weekend for U.S. & China!Related: How Xi Jinping became a networked authoritarian thanks to his little red app | John NaughtonRelated: When multilateralism crumbles, so does our rules-based order | Mark Medish Continue reading...

Robert Lighthizer, the US trade representative, argued with the president about whether an MOU is binding or notTensions between Donald Trump and one of his top trade negotiators have been brought into the open as the two disagreed publicly about the definition of a memorandum of understanding.In a White House meeting between US officials and China’s top negotiator, which was televised and attended by journalists, Robert Lighthizer, the US trade representative, contradicted the president’s claim that memoranda of understanding (MOU) are non-binding.Related: Donald Trump delays tariff hike on Chinese goods after 'great' trade talks Continue reading...

Manchester could net £220m and Liverpool £133m thanks to football fans’ spending – reportTaking part in the Premier League title race can be worth hundreds of millions of pounds to a football club’s home city, according to a report that said Manchester City and Liverpool are squaring up for a £300m battle.The report by the thinktank Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) said competing for a league title could increase a city’s economic growth by 1.1 percentage points. Continue reading...

Peter Muchlinski says Brussels needs to wake up and offer a cooperative solution to Brexit. Michael Cunningham says Peter Mandelson’s endorsement of neoliberalism helped to lead us to BrexitMatthias Bergmann’s piece (My grandfather was a Nazi. I’ve seen why we need the EU, 20 February) reminds us of the EU’s peace-fostering effect. Bergmann also admits that the EU is “far from perfect” but does not tell us how.The currently precarious state of European politics arises in large part because the Brussels technocrats swallowed the Thatcherite mantra of neoliberal market policies and, in addition, created the euro. That shielded Germany’s sluggish economic performance by fuelling cheap credit, provided in part by German banks, in the economically weaker “European south” and Ireland, leading to the eurozone crisis and EU-wide “austerity”. Continue reading...

It is hard to see how a child’s interests can be truly prioritised and safeguarded if one of the parties is not properly advised and represented, writes a former lay judge in the family courtLouise Tickle (Why I fought for the right to open up family court decisions to greater scrutiny, 20 February) focuses on reporting restrictions, by virtue of which errant local authorities and judges are, in her view, protected from scrutiny. In my view, the greater evil is the absence of legal aid in the majority of family court and court of protection cases. I served, for a decade, as a lay judge in the family court. I have subsequently supported many litigants-in-person in the family court, in one case in the court of protection, and sometimes in the courtroom as a McKenzie friend. This has been possible thanks to the moral and logistical support of the Citizens Advice Bureau where I have been a longstanding adviser.It was always obvious to me when I was chairing family courts that unrepresented parties were at a substantial disadvantage, especially where the other party was represented. Now that I am on “the other side”, as it were, it is all the more clear how very challenging it is for most unrepresented and unsupported parties to handle the complexities of court practice and procedure. The Children Act 1989 says that when a court determines any question, the child’s welfare shall be the court’s paramount consideration. It is very difficult to see how the welfare of any child can be truly prioritised and safeguarded in the family court, whether involving state action, via the local authority, or a dispute between parents and/or carers, if any one of the parties is not properly legally advised and represented.

Britain is sending all the wrong messages pre-Brexit to the migrant workers it sorely needsA perception had built up over the decade leading to Brexit that Britain was a country out of control. Brussels bureaucrats controlled our lives and money. Migrants were stealing jobs and sponging benefits, or so went the shock doctrine of the tabloid press, manifested among the myriad reasons 17.4 million people cried out from the ballot box two and a half years ago: “Enough is enough.”But as the countdown on Brexit approaches its chaotic finale in little more than 30 days’ time, it’s worth remembering that, until recently, that perception hadn’t travelled far overseas. Continue reading...

Nissan, Honda and Hitachi were the pillars of an Anglo-Japanese accord dating back to the 1980s. That deal is now in ruinsThe damage becomes more palpable by the day. So, far from winning a £350m-a-week boost to the NHS, we find that the mere prospect of Brexit is costing the economy £800m a week.And this is only the beginning, unless the madness can be stopped. I have pointed out before that her crucial contribution to setting up the single market was one of Margaret Thatcher’s finest achievements (the finest, according to Kenneth Clarke) and I say this as one who was not slow to criticise what I still regard as her originally misconceived approach towards British industry. That sado-monetarist period of the early 1980s was so disastrous that it provoked the chairman of ICI to go to Downing Street and ask the prime minister whether she wanted the company to remain in Britain. We now have present-day industrialists in a similar state of despair.I still hope that a second referendum will allow voters to have second thoughts, and young voters to have first thoughts Continue reading...

Two significant events have showed that a major adjustment of our economy is needed to end our reliance on coal

A decade after the crash, many nations are still on emergency monetary policies, even before a new downturn strikesCentral banks are getting twitchy. On average, recessions have come along once a decade since the mid-1970s and the nadir of the last downturn occurred almost a decade ago.The Nobel prize-winning economist Paul Krugman has predicted that there will be a recession in America by the time Donald Trump comes up for re-election at the end of next year. Continue reading...

Pound falls against the dollar and the euro after EU official says there will be ‘no deal in the desert’ at a summit in Egypt next week

A surplus of £14.9bn in January was the highest since monthly records began, in a boost to Philip Hammond ahead of his spring statement on 13 March

Deals containing clauses that threaten human rights are being debated in parliament – they must be defeatedThe government cancelled parliament’s recess at short notice so as not to give the impression MPs were on holiday a matter of weeks before we face crashing out of the EU.The international trade secretary, Liam Fox, is using the opportunity to avoid proper scrutiny of plans that threaten our rights, our environment and our democracy. He tabled a general debate on post-Brexit trade agreements with the US, Australia, New Zealand and the Trans-Pacific Partnership for Thursday. And he is expected to launch negotiations soon after the debate – with no chance for parliament to stop him.Related: Britain is discovering the difficult truth about trade deals | Phillip Inman Continue reading...

The chancellor will adopt a wait-and-see approach to talks before allocating his surplus fundsThe largest January budget surplus on record smashed City expectations and was a real surprise given the recent downbeat economic news. But Philip Hammond will take the gift with open arms.It is now five weeks until the scheduled date for Britain to leave the European Union and while most political and financial market analysts expect the current logjam to be broken, a no-deal outcome remains a possibility.Related: UK public finances hit record surplus to give Hammond pre-Brexit boostHammond is now in a better position than he was when he made his budget speech in late October Continue reading...

Figure of £14.9bn is biggest January surplus since records began in 1993Britain has recorded the biggest-ever monthly surplus in public finances since the early 1990s, putting the government on a strong footing in the run-up to Brexit, now less than 40 days away.In a rare piece of positive economic news for Philip Hammond as he prepares for his spring statement next month, income from taxes outstripped public spending by £14.9bn, the biggest January surplus since records began in 1993.Related: Hammond will keep his powder dry over pre-Brexit windfall | Larry Elliott Continue reading...

Cumulative effect since 2010 has left each person £1,495 a year worse off, analysis showsAusterity policies from the Treasury have resulted in slower growth in every year since 2010 and left each household £300 a month worse off as a result, a thinktank has said.The New Economics Foundation said its analysis of the impact of tax and spending changes since the Conservatives came to power, first as part of a coalition with the Liberal Democrats, had left the economy £100bn smaller than it would otherwise have been. Continue reading...

MPs committee report suggests online sales tax and more help for local authoritiesThe government should consider taxing online sales, deliveries or packaging and cutting property taxes for retailers as part of a package to help revive the UK’s ailing high streets, according to an influential group of MPs.In a report published on Thursday, the housing communities and local government committee says local authorities need more help, including extra cash, to redevelop town centres. It also suggests an overhaul of planning regulations, including scrapping rules that allow developers to turn offices into flats without special permission. Continue reading...

Chief executive Mike Coupe’s strategy shows he is lost in the retail jungle and lacks a plan BSainsbury’s boss Mike Coupe said he will keep banging the drum for its merger with Asda, despite a damning report from the competition regulator that effectively rules it out.It’s a strategy that shows Coupe is lost in the retail jungle without Asda holding his hand. It also reveals he lacks a plan B. Continue reading...

Competition regulator finds merger could have an impact on choice and reduce quality

The clock is ticking quickly towards crisis point, the employers’ organisation saysThe CBI has stepped up its campaign for the UK and the EU to strike a compromise Brexit deal after its latest snapshot of manufacturing showed the pace of output growth slowing.Despite stronger order books the employers’ organisation said industry was struggling to cope with the twin impact of slower global growth and uncertainty about Britain’s future relationship with the EU 27. Continue reading...

Brexit might not have much of an effect on the labour market as unemployment hits a record lowAnybody expecting the Brexit impasse to harm the UK’s labour market has so far been proved wrong. Employment is at its highest ever level, the number of job vacancies has hit a new record and the unemployment rate for women has dropped below 4% for the first time. Growth slowed in the final quarter of 2018 but the dole queues shortened. Crisis, what crisis?One possibility is that because the latest jobs and wages data from the Office for National Statistics only covers the period to December, it might not capture more recent surveys suggesting that firms have become warier about hiring since the turn of the year.Related: Employers squeezed as job vacancies grow to record levels Continue reading...

Number workers from EU27 nations falls by 61,000 as non-EU workforce hits record levelThe number of workers in the UK from elsewhere in the EU fell by 61,000 at a time when the number of British and non-EU workers soared, official figures show.There were an estimated 2.33 million workers from the EU27 in the UK between October to December in 2017, but that figure dropped to 2.27 million a year later. A notable drop in workers from A8 countries, which joined the bloc in 2004 and include Poland and the Czech Republic, largely accounted for the decrease.Related: Honda's Swindon factory closure threatens 7,000 jobs – business live Continue reading...

UK firms struggle to find staff as unemployment falls to lows not seen since the mid-1970sRecord numbers of unfilled job vacancies across Britain appear to have strengthened the bargaining power of workers to demand higher wages, amid mounting fears over skills shortages at UK companies.According to the Office for National Statistics, the number of vacancies in the British jobs market rose by 16,000 to an estimated 870,000 in the three months to January, the highest level since comparable records began in 2001.Related: Deal or no deal, UK jobs will remain hard to fill | Larry Elliott Continue reading...

People in pro-leave areas of Britain have tended not to curb expenditure, finds PwC surveyBritish consumers are preparing to carry on shopping despite the mounting political chaos over Brexit, according to a survey, even as business leaders increasingly sound the alarm over the potential hit to the economy.More than half of consumers in the nationwide survey told the accountancy firm PwC they had not, and would not, alter their spending habits over the course of this year as a consequence of Brexit. Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as investors cling to hopes that Beijing and Washington are making progress in their trade talks

Many fear the abrasive David Malpass will use the bank to pursue White House’s agendaUntil a month ago David Malpass was a civil servant at the US Treasury with die-hard Republican sympathies and an abrasive management style. Jim Yong Kim’s decision in January to step down as president of the World Bank means he is now in line to head the international community’s flagship development body.Kim’s decision to accept a job at a Wall Street private equity firm went down badly with staff at the bank, who were unimpressed that he could make more of an impact in global development through his lucrative career move. Instead, he is considered a greedball. Continue reading...

Wanting to forge new trading relationships after Brexit and securing them are two very different thingsA trade deal, any trade deal: that is all Liam Fox wants from his civil servants. It is not much for an international trade secretary to ask. Especially when the prospect of all-encompassing agreements on imports and exports was held up in the referendum and its aftermath as one of the chief benefits of quitting the European Union. Not least by Fox himself.Wanting a trade deal and securing one are not the same thing, as Fox has found out in the last two years of chasing down the 69 nations that have deals with the EU which the UK needs to replicate.Related: Post-Brexit trade partners ask UK to lower human rights standards Continue reading...

Austerity has stripped local services to the bone – and those on the lowest incomes will be forced to pay for it“The most boring and complicated subject in all of public life,” declared William Waldegrave, former minister and an architect of the fateful poll tax, when speaking of local government finance. But this is misleading: the consequences of local government austerity are anything but boring for those on the lowest incomes. The design of the council tax system – and recent reforms to it – hits the poorest hardest. Here’s why.Since 2010, the central government grant to local government has been cut by almost 60%. This has had a devastating impact on local public services with spending falling in real terms by nearly one-fifth (excluding education and public health) since the start of the decade. So it’s little surprise that council taxpayers in England face substantial increases in their bills, with nearly all councils set to increase them this April.Related: Why is the tax on a London mansion a tiny fraction of that in New York? | Simon Jenkins Continue reading...

President said potential delay was justified as deal ‘must be the biggest in history’President Donald Trump has conceded that he will delay planned increases in import duties on $200bn (£155bn) of Chinese goods if there is progress in trade talks in Washington next week.Appearing to soften his demand for talks to conclude before 1 March, Trump said there could be a 30- or 60-day extension, should negotiators get closer to a deal. He said a delay was justified, based on the scope and scale of the talks. Speaking on the White House lawn, he said: “Trade with China – how big does that get? It must be the biggest deal in history.” Continue reading...

Gertjan Vlieghe’s estimate of weekly bill, £800m, is more than double battlebus ‘bonus’The cost of Brexit to the British economy is running at £40bn a year and a damaging no-deal scenario could force an emergency cut in interest rates, according to a Bank of England rate-setter.Gertjan Vlieghe, a member of the Bank’s monetary policy committee, said that since the vote in June 2016, the economy had lost about 2% of GDP compared with a scenario where there had been no significant domestic economic events. Continue reading...

Retail sales in the UK rose 1% in January as price discounts convinced shoppers to splash out on clothing.

Figure of £1.6bn means bank records second straight year of profit since 2008 state bailoutRoyal Bank of Scotland has said Brexit uncertainty has “gone on far too long”, despite posting better-than-expected full-year profits and declaring new dividends that will boost government coffers by £1bn.RBS’s chief executive, Ross McEwan, admitted the additional pressure of Brexit risks would affect the bank’s performance over the coming year and it may struggle to meet its target of getting costs below 50% of its income by 2020.Related: One in 10 support quick sale of government's RBS stake, poll finds Continue reading...

The City isn’t going to lose its status overnight, but can the loss of assets pre-Brexit be reversed?Only now, as we approach the third anniversary of the UK’s referendum on membership in the European Union, are the implications of leaving the bloc finally sinking in. One indication, amusing to those with a taste for black humour, is the marketing success of Brexit survival kits containing a water filter, fire-starting equipment and enough freeze-dried food for 30 days.Another indication is the launch, at the end of January, of a parliamentary inquiry into London’s prospects as a financial centre. This investigation is a response to prominent financial firms voting with their feet. Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup have moved nearly $300bn of balance-sheet assets from London to Frankfurt, and Barclays has won approval to move another $215bn to Dublin. BNP Paribas, Crédit Agricole, and Société Général have transferred 500 staff from London to Paris. HSBC has shifted ownership of many of its European subsidiaries from the UK to France.Related: How can we tax the footloose multinationals? Continue reading...