Equivalents of Lord Grantham and his family are hedge fund financiers and City lawyersChristmas Day telly has not been quite the same since there stopped being a Downton Abbey special to savour. For many families, it was part of the yuletide ritual to watch the soap opera centred on the lives of the Crawley family and the servants who waited upon them.Downton was an idealised high-Tory view of the world. The aristos – Lord Grantham in particular – were paternalists, seeing it as their duty to look after the people they employed, provided they worked hard and knew their place. There was harmony between rulers and ruled; devotion to duty was rewarded; wrongdoing punished. It was David Cameron’s big society in microcosm.Related: Global markets are desperate for some Christmas spirit after a dismal yearIf history is any guide, the coming industrial revolution will create more jobs than it destroys Continue reading...

Investors hoping for a ‘Santa rally’ look set to be disappointed, as many fear the strong run of recent times is overInvestors are entering the Christmas holidays hoping for some respite from a brutal few months in which stock markets have sold off across the world, with little sign of the customary “Santa rally” in December.The UK’s FTSE 100 is on track for its worst performance in a decade in 2018 – barring dramatic moves in the three days of trading left on the London Stock Exchange, including half days on Christmas Eve and New Year’s Eve. At Friday’s close London’s blue-chip index had lost more than 12% for the year to date, which would equate to the worst run over a calendar year since the global financial crisis hit in 2008.Bouts of market volatility can be expected in an environment which is likely to remain on edge Continue reading...

The president’s $1tn tax cuts gamble hasn’t worked – the House of Representatives has been lost, the economy has imploded and the stock market has tankedThe accomplishments of a US president’s first year in office can be credited to his predecessor, at least where the economy is concerned. And Donald Trump was handed the best performing economy on the planet. All the tough decisions – to refinance the banks, rescue the car companies and deflate the real-estate bubble – had been made. The stock market was tearing along, setting records almost every week.Trump gave this rising balloon extra air with $1tn of tax cuts. It was borrowed money, but no matter. The economy sailed along for another year and the stock market carried on rising. His plan was to win the midterm congressional elections and then persuade the Republican party to give him another $1tn, or as near to it as possible. Continue reading...

The home secretary’s plans will be bad both for Britain’s finances and for workers’ rightsWe have become illiberal and lowered quotas at a time when we have an acute shortage of labour.” So observed the cabinet minister Richard Crossman in his diaries in 1966, after the Labour government, fearful of public hostility, slashed Commonwealth immigration into Britain.The conflict between those who see immigration as an economic necessity and those who fear its political consequences has long shaped immigration debate. One consequence has been incoherent policy. That’s as true of the home secretary Sajid Javid’s white paper on immigration published last week as it was in Crossman’s day.Immigration has become the most potent symbol of a world out of controlThe white paper estimates that it will lower GDP by ‘between 0.4% and 0.9% ’ by 2025 Continue reading...

Chris Riddell on a year not to be proud of Continue reading...

Government shutdowns hurt millions. Great depressions hurt even more. History suggests real pain is round the cornerOn Friday, Donald Trump said: “We are totally prepared for a very long shutdown.” It was one of his rare uses of the pronoun “we” instead of his preferred – and in this case far more appropriate – “I”.Related: Chaos at home, fear abroad: Trump unleashed puts western world on edgeThe shutdown is stoking fears that Trump could do something even more alarmingRelated: Trump and Democrats play blame game over government shutdown Continue reading...

The major international agencies should devise a progressive tax regime that penalises the biggest carbon emitters and offsets costs for the poorestPresident Macron needs to win the war on fuel tax. Every country does. It is an issue on which the governments in Paris and Nairobi have been forced to make U-turns. It is rising up the political agenda in other countries, including the UK and Germany, where the rebirth of the Greens and the rise of the rightwing AfD has paralysed the Bundestag.Without some kind of resolution to how much consumers and business pay for burning fossil fuels – a deal that most agree gets near being fair and addresses the problem of climate change – the battle will not be fought politely inside parliamentary debating chambers, but on the streets. Continue reading...

Revolut customers are protected by the Bank of Lithuania – but it’s not certain it will pay upIt is almost exactly 10 years since the 300,000 British customers lured into Icesave by high interest rates woke up to find that their £4bn in deposits had disappeared when parent company Landsbanki collapsed and the country’s entire financial system went into meltdown.Iceland’s deposit protection scheme instantly fell over. How could it not? A tiny country with a population about the same as Brighton found itself as the guarantor for savers across Europe, with Dutch as well as British savers heavily invested in the Landsbanki accounts. Today, we’re told, it’s all different. Banks have been forced to raise more capital, supervision and solvency testing is much more robust, and the EU has set a €100,000 (£90,000) minimum deposit protection level for member states.Related: The smartphone apps that will change the way you bank Continue reading...

Senior figures say PM will struggle to get deal signed off in current political uncertaintyTheresa May’s waning authority means the idea of concluding a three-year spending review next year is a fantasy and is only likely to be achieved if she were replaced as leader, cabinet ministers have said.The government has promised a full spending review in 2019 as part of a pledge to end austerity in the coming years, but senior figures say May will struggle to get the plan signed off.Related: Cash-strapped Britons keep spending but firms cut investment Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as Britain’s balance of payments worsens, and markets fluctuate at the end of a tricky week

We’ve been trashing the planet over recent decades while creating a miserable, insecure society, writes Natalie Bennett. Plus Siân Charnley on the changing language of environmental protestIn Larry Elliott’s article (We’re back to 1930s politics: anger and, yes, appeasement, 20 December), it is good to see an economics editor addressing, as Kate Raworth has done so effectively with Doughnut Economics, the fact that the economy is a complete subset of the environment. And Elliott is right to say that the official declaration that came out of Katowice was not nearly enough.But that wasn’t the only thing that came from the climate talks. There was a newly prominent place for civil society, from teenager Greta Thunberg to nonagenarian David Attenborough, and some companies, and many state and city governments, stepping up to the plate. Continue reading...

Households help UK economy bounce back over quarter as Brexit fears spook businessesCash-strapped households provided most of Britain’s growth in the three months to September, as businesses cut investment again amid fears over Brexit.Official figures confirmed the economy bounced back from the freezing temperatures earlier in the year as shoppers spent heavily during the football World Cup and a long heatwave.Related: Asos shock shows UK's economic problems extend beyond high street Continue reading...

OECD’s predictions may prove overly optimistic due to EU leaders’ lack of team spiritThe European commission, the International Monetary Fund and the OECD predict that, on average, the EU’s economy will grow by 1.9% next year, a rate that is broadly consistent with the average of 2% expected for this year. But the picture this paints may prove to be overly optimistic, not only because the growth rate itself is likely to disappoint, but also because there is significant downward pressure on the EU’s growth potential beyond 2019 – pressure that, at present, European leaders seem unprepared to counter effectively.If the EU were a soccer team, it would not lose games for lack of a gameplan or due to inadequate capacity. Worth nearly $19tn (£15tn), the EU’s economy remains the world’s second largest, constituting about one-fifth of the global output. The problem is that the team as a whole is not playing cohesively, and all of the top players are struggling individually, owing to messy problems at home. Continue reading...

Readers respond to the allegations that Jeremy Corbyn called Theresa May a ‘stupid woman’The “did he or didn’t he” over what Jeremy Corbyn actually mouthed at the PM in PMQs (‘Oh no he didn’t…’ Corbyn denies calling PM a ‘stupid woman’, 20 December) reminds me of the “fuddle duddle” that Pierre Trudeau claimed he mouthed at his opponents in the Canadian House of Commons on 16 February 1971 instead of what many observed to be far more Anglo-Saxon language. Two pop songs emerged from that incident, including Do the Fuddle Duddle, from a band opportunistically named the House of Commons.

Consumer demand and business investment are likely to have suffered, says MPCGrowing worries over prospects for the world economy and the mounting fallout from Brexit uncertainty have pushed the Bank of England to keep interest rates on hold before Christmas.Sounding the alarm that Brexit worries had intensified considerably in recent weeks to unleash heightened volatility in the financial markets, Threadneedle Street said it would wait for greater clarity next year before considering raising interest rates again. Continue reading...

Rate rises are off the agenda due to Brexit uncertainty and mothballed investmentBy now, had things turned out differently, Theresa May would have secured the passage of her Brexit withdrawal bill through parliament and the UK would unquestionably be on course to leave the EU at the end of March.In those circumstances, the Bank of England would be taking a very different view of the prospects for the economy and a much more hawkish view about interest rates. There would have been a good chance that at the December meeting of the Bank’s monetary policy committee, at least one member would have voted for an immediate tightening of policy. Continue reading...

UK central bank has left borrowing costs at 0.75%, and warned that Brexit uncertainties are weighing on the markets

Tokyo falls almost 3% and Sydney hits two-year low on news, as China responds with a targeted rate cut for businessesAsian stock markets have taken a battering after the US Federal Reserve voted to raise borrowing costs for the fourth time this year, signalling a further squeeze on liquidity around the world.In Tokyo, the Nikkei closed down nearly 3% to its lowest point for 14 months as the Fed’s pledge to continue with “gradual” rate hikes next year sent shivers through financial markets.Related: Why are markets falling, and are we heading for global recession?Stocks tumble on deepening fears of Fed mistake. Japan enters bear mkt as Topix slides 21% from Jan high, S&P 500 hits 15mth low after Fed Chair Powell disappointed excessively dovish mkt expectations. US 10y ylds drop to 2.75%, Oil continues downtrend, Bitcoin stable at $3.7k. pic.twitter.com/VrKquOckxrRelated: We’re back to the 1930s politics of anger and, yes, appeasement | Larry Elliott Continue reading...

Echoes of a horrific decade are getting louder, and the UN climate accord is the equivalent of Chamberlain’s piece of paperMore than any other decade, the 1930s act as a reference point for just how bad things can get. Mass unemployment, totalitarianism, war: a repeat of these horrors is to be avoided at all costs. Eighty years after Neville Chamberlain agreed to Hitler’s demands over the Sudetenland, there is still no greater insult than to dub a politician an “appeaser”.The determination in policy circles to avoid a return to the 30s helps explain why up until now it has never happened. Central banks slashed interest rates and turned on the electronic printing presses a decade ago because they feared a second Great Depression. Welfare states are more generous than they were when John Steinbeck was writing The Grapes of Wrath. Decades of growth have made societies wealthier; advances in medical science have made them healthier.Related: Are we living through another 1930s? | Paul Mason Continue reading...

Fed said rates will rise a quarter of a percentage point to 2.25% to 2.5% but it is carefully watching ‘event risks’, including BrexitThe US Federal Reserve raised interest rates again on Wednesday despite intense, and unprecedented, pressure from Donald Trump to leave rates unchanged.After a two-day meeting, the central bank announced rates would rise a quarter of a percentage point, to a range of 2.25% to 2.5%, the ninth such move since late 2015. The rate rise further signals the Fed’s confidence in the US economy.Related: Why are markets falling, and are we heading for global recession?I hope the people over at the Fed will read today’s Wall Street Journal Editorial before they make yet another mistake. Also, don’t let the market become any more illiquid than it already is. Stop with the 50 B’s. Feel the market, don’t just go by meaningless numbers. Good luck! Continue reading...

Dow hits 2018 low after central bankers increase rates despite pressure from Trump to leave them unchanged

The US central bank went ahead with the interest rate rise, seemingly relaxed about the economyFor the past couple of months Donald Trump has been waging war against the US central bank. The Federal Reserve thinks strong growth and the lowest unemployment since the days when the US was putting men on the moon warrants a gradual increase in interest rates. Trump has been telling the Fed to stop before it craters the economy.In the end, the Fed on Wednesday did what it was always going to do: it went ahead with the planned rate rise.Related: Stock market volatile after Federal Reserve raises interest rates – business live Continue reading...

Compromise with European commission will reduce deficit target to 2.04% of GDPItaly has managed to avert EU sanctions after reaching a compromise with the European commission over its 2019 budget.The Italian prime minister, Giuseppe Conte, said the government had managed to reach an agreement to reduce the deficit target to 2.04% of GDP from 2.4%. This has been achieved without making drastic changes to key budget proposals such as the promise of a universal basic income and lowering the pension age. Continue reading...

Business leaders criticise curbs on migrants earning £30,000, proposed in new white paperThe government’s proposals for a post-Brexit immigration system will deal a “sucker punch” to the economy, leaving industry short of the migrant workforce they rely on, business leaders have said.The plans, unveiled in the long-awaited immigration white paper, introduce a new skills-based immigration system and the end of free movement of people from the EU.Related: May's cabinet split over £30,000 immigrant salary thresholdRelated: I’m a carer. The £30k immigration rule would decimate the sector | Karolina Gerlich Continue reading...

Stalling house prices, slowing inflation and Brexit will deter interest rate rise – analystsLondon house prices slipped in October, dragging the growth in average property prices to its lowest level since July 2013.The slump in the capital, which began after the Brexit vote in 2016 and reached a fall of 1.7% for the year to October 2018, pulled down the average increase across the UK to 2.7%, down from 3% in September, according to official data.Inflation is when prices rise. Deflation is the opposite – price decreases over time – but inflation is far more common. Continue reading...

Crashing out of the EU would imperil hundreds of thousands of jobs. Here’s how we can force the government to change courseTo fail to deliver Brexit would be to “break faith with the British people” said the prime minister earlier this week. And yesterday, in pursuit of that logic, she did an extraordinary thing. Recognising that there is no majority in parliament for her deal she began preparations in earnest for us to leave without one. And here is what that will mean.Gavin Williamson said we will “have 3,500 service personnel held at readiness” – he must anticipate civil unrest. Dominic Raab had confirmed we were taking measures to “make sure that there is adequate food supply” and Matt Hancock says we have begun to stockpile perishable medicines. And if that planning is adequate, we will continue to be safe and have enough to eat and there will be no further deaths. If it is adequate.Related: Ivan Rogers’ Brexit bombshell, digested | Martha Gill Continue reading...

The health service’s long-term plan won’t work if brave staffing decisions aren’t made, says incoming head of the King’s FundRichard Murray, a former academic, management consultant and civil servant, is about to take on the most high-profile role among the health thinktanks: as the King’s Fund’s new chief executive.Related: Long-term plan for NHS funding delayed amid Brexit chaos Continue reading...

Minimum salary threshold of £30k-a-year will also apply to migrants from the EU27Sajid Javid is expected to publish a long-delayed white paper on Britain’s tough new immigration regime on Wednesday, as the prime minister seeks to build the case for her Brexit deal by pledging to “take back control of our borders”.Related: Business leaders warn against plan to slash EU immigration to UKRelated: UK immigration: what is the government proposing?Related: Sajid Javid says freedom of movement ends, 'deal or no deal' Continue reading...

PwC analysis predicts India will rise to fifth as Brexit impact pushes UK to seventhBritain’s stalled economy will fall back in the international rankings next year to sit in seventh place behind India and France, according to a report by consultants at PwC.A fall in the value of the pound, combined with slower growth this year and next as Brexit takes its toll, will mean the UK drops from fifth in the GDP rankings to sit just above Italy in eighth place and Brazil in ninth. Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as UK blue-chip index stocks drop to weakest close since late 2016

After heavy market losses, Wall Street faces its bleakest Christmas since the 1930s

Gender equality has stalled, says WEF, as women globally are paid 63% of what men getThe global pay gap between men and women will take 202 years to close, because it is so vast and the pace of change so slow, according to the World Economic Forum.The WEF, which organises the annual meeting of business and political leaders in Davos, said the global gender pay gap has narrowed slightly over the past year, but the number of women in the professional workplace has fallen. In 2017, the WEF estimated that it would take 217 years to close the pay gap.Related: Gender pay gap: when does your company stop paying women in 2018?Related: Carrie Gracie says BBC is blocking pay gap campaigners Continue reading...

Financial markets nervously eye the US Federal Reserve as it moves to raise interest ratesFinancial markets have been nervously eyeing the US Federal Reserve as it prepares to raise interest rates for the fourth time this year on Wednesday, with big investors fearing that higher borrowing costs could damage the global economy. Continue reading...

Amid Brexit uncertainty, online retailers are posting losses as well as Next, M&S and Dunelm

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as online fashion group suffers a “significant deterioration” in pre-Christmas trading

The UK high street is suffering and now even online outlets are feeling the pinchTake a high street in the throes of structural upheaval. Add a large dollop of Brexit uncertainty, a pinch of unusually warm weather and what do you get? The sort of dish that will turn the stomach of even the toughest retailer.This is the crunch time for shops and online shopping outlets. Christmas is when consumers tend to spend more freely and many retailers make their profits. Last year, November and December accounted for more than 21% of all goods sold.Related: Asos issues shock profit warning after November downturn4 DecemberRelated: Laura Ashley to close 40 stores, putting hundreds of jobs at risk Continue reading...

National deficit increases after ONS says student loans count as government spendingPhilip Hammond is facing a £12bn hole in the public finances this year after changes to the way student loans are treated on the government’s books, reflecting that many will never be repaid.In a stroke of the pen from the Office for National Statistics, student loans will now be treated as part financial asset in the national accounts, because some will be repaid, while part will be classified as government expenditure, as some loans will never be paid back in full. Continue reading...

UK consumers are reining in spending as economic uncertainty dents footfall and hits salesRetailers vying for customers in the last full week of trading before Christmas are in for a tough time according to the latest predictions, with footfall expected to fall by about 3% this week as cash-strapped shoppers rein in spending.The forecast by retail analysis firm Springboard adds to the bleak picture facing the sector in the key festive trading season, as consumers uncertain about what Brexit will mean for the economy and their finances cut back on gift-buying this year.Related: Storm Deirdre batters UK and adds to retail woeMaplin, Toys R Us and Jacques Vert have all collapsed in recent months, but several retailers and restaurant groups are facing financial problems and are trying to close stores or negotiate rent cuts. Continue reading...

Trade monitor reveals firms also affected by ‘significant’ economic turmoil in EuropeBritain’s goods exports have “collapsed” to levels not seen for three years in response to growing Brexit uncertainty and slowdowns in the Chinese and the US economies, according to a quarterly trade monitor.Business consultants BDO found that the UK’s goods exports, which have suffered a slowdown in growth since the beginning of 2017, contracted in the last three months of the year to leave them at a level not seen since 2015.Related: UK economy slows as car sales slide Continue reading...

Despite Brexit chaos and the failures of austerity, Theresa May still says Britain’s greatest threat is a Corbyn governmentIt usually takes time for established preconceptions to catch up with reality. For political parties, conventional wisdom about their characteristic strengths and opponents’ weaknesses is their bread and butter. It underpins David Cameron’s now famously ironic tweet, ahead of the 2015 election, that the British faced a choice between stability with the Conservatives, or chaos with Ed Miliband. The tweet now stands, like Ozymandias’s hubristic boast, “Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair!”, an inscription on a diminishing Conservative party that has spent the last two years cannibalising itself.And yet, many have still not caught up with the new reality of the Conservatives, because there is another side to the party where perceptions haven’t changed. Last week the Wall Street Journal published a report announcing that there was only thing investors in the UK feared more than Brexit: Jeremy Corbyn. “It isn’t just Brexit that has investors on edge in the UK,” the article warned, “it’s the possibility of a new Labour government run by an avowed socialist.” Quotes from analysts described a Labour victory as a “lose-lose proposition”, “apocalyptic” and “Armageddon”.Related: Party activists pile pressure on Corbyn to back second vote Continue reading...

Possible decision by ONS would reopen question of funding of students in EnglandThe government faces an extra £10bn being added to its borrowing as the result of a radical shake-up in the accounting for student loans, with experts warning of increased uncertainty over the outlook for university funding.The Office for National Statistics is due to announce its plans to change provisions for student loans in the UK’s national accounts, with any change likely to affect the government’s public sector deficit policies and throw open questions about how students in England are funded.Related: Student loan shake-up puts £12bn hole in public financesRelated: Second parliamentary committee calls for means-tested student grants to be reinstated Continue reading...

The chance to mend the British economy’s well-documented problems is being lost in a sea of uncertaintyIt was supposed to be over by Christmas, yet the never-ending chaos that is Brexit and the search for a deal keeps rumbling on. Theresa May might have survived her confidence vote, yet with it she became the greatest lame duck prime minister in modern history.From the few options for the way ahead, none seem workable as things stand. May’s deal, even with a few tweaks, is unlikely to pass without wholesale reform. It appears dead in the water after her latest failed dash to Brussels. The best she could muster on her pre-Christmas shopping trip was the political equivalent of a limp bow to wrap around a gift that is as unappealing to her party as the proverbial lump of coal.Related: A people’s vote on Brexit used to be a distant hope. Not anymore | Matthew d’Ancona Continue reading...

The president has called the US central bank’s chairman, Jerome Powell, ‘too aggressive’ on policyAs the US Federal Reserve prepares to meet this week, storm clouds are gathering. It is widely expected that, despite protests from President Donald Trump, the Fed will raise interest rates – the latest in a series of increases which are expected to continue through to 2020.But while most Fed officials seemed confident last month about the future prospects for the American economy, a fresh poll of economists has shown more scepticism. Continue reading...

Wherever one goes, concerned people ask what Britain is doing. It seems clear from our actions that we don’t knowThis column comes to you from Perugia in Italy, a reasonably safe haven from the shenanigans of Westminster. We have been visiting our youngest daughter, who is a beneficiary at the university of one of the many privileges of the UK’s membership of the EU: namely the kind of Erasmus scholarship that might well be threatened if the Brexiters have their way.Although it is my fate to write about the threat of Brexit, I share the feelings of so many people I meet that there are times when one fears one is being driven insane by its prominence in the so-called national debate, when there are so many other pressing problems.With the House of Commons at sixes and sevens, the case strengthens for a referendum based on evidence, not emotion Continue reading...

Every shred of political energy is being tied up in Brexit, with detrimental effects on a nation facing other urgent challengesBrexit has paralysed British politics: it has left the government utterly incapacitated, ministers warring and both main parties riven by splits. It is absorbing every shred of political energy; in the words of one official, it has wiped the policy grid clean. Yet in every nook and cranny of the state – from understaffed hospitals to the schools sending parents begging letters for financial support – there are problems that demand urgent focus and resource. We also face huge social challenges that require action now, from how to care for an ageing society to how to prepare for the impact of technology on the world of work. All this is going ignored, with detrimental effects on people’s lives.There is a grim paradox at the heart of Brexit. The vote for Britain to leave the EU was partly fuelled by the sense among many voters that there are increasingly two Britains: a thriving capital barely touched by recession and boarded-up high streets outside the south-east. This has been a long project in the making, driven by decades of deindustrialisation and uneven economic growth that have contributed to some of the biggest regional inequalities in western Europe. Yet Brexit is going to make it far harder to respond to this gap, which has only got wider since the financial crisis.Deliberate political choices made since 2010 contributed to the economic dissatisfaction that paved the way for the voteRelated: Jeremy Corbyn slides in approval ratings in spite of Tory schismsThere are no Brexit-shaped shortcuts to better hospitals and schools, well-paid jobs and flourishing town centres Continue reading...

As the IMF warns a downturn could be coming, we examine how you can protect yourselfEvery 10 years or so a financial crisis hits global markets – and it’s 10 years since the last one. This week the IMF warned that not only are the storm clouds of the next global financial crisis gathering, but also that the world financial system is unprepared for another downturn.Will your pension be wrecked? The value of your house plummet? Will your industry be hit by a wave of redundancies? The bad news is that even the big investment houses, which traditionally talk up markets in the hope that you will invest, are pessimistic about 2019.Related: IMF warns storm clouds are gathering for next financial crisis Continue reading...

Figures also show dramatic slowdown in business activity across Europe and the USFears are growing about the state of the global economy after a slump in Chinese manufacturing output growth and a dramatic slowdown in business activity across Europe and the US.Stock markets sagged on Friday as China‘s government said industrial production and retail sales slowed in November. Traders were also spooked by surveys that showed French business activity contracted this month and the US economy slipped to its lowest growth rate for 18 months in December.Related: Pound falls after May's Brexit blow in Brussels - as it happened Continue reading...

The pound is down against the dollar and the euro after Theresa May failed to make progress during her Brexit trip to Brussels

The president of the European commission says Theresa May failed to bring a clear plan for future relations with the EU after Brexit. The British 'need to say what they want, instead of asking us what we want,' he told reporters early on Friday after a day of talks in Brussels

Juncker tells PM to tell Europe what she wants in ‘nebulous and imprecise’ debate