Globalisation, populism and Brexit are among the issues at the World Economic ForumPolitical and economic problems loom heavily over the global elite as they gather at Davos for the World Economic Forum. But is there any political will to fix them?Related: Global tensions holding back climate change fight, says WEFThrilled the Duke of Cambridge is taking part in the first ever plenary panel on global mental health @Davos later this month. Thank you @wef for making mental health a priority in 2019. Looking forward to being there for @UnitedGMH asking leaders to make sure 2019 is #timetoact https://t.co/WtSDoF2kahMostrarei nosso desejo de fazer comércio com o mundo todo, prezando pela liberdade econômica, acordos bilaterais e saúde fiscal. Com esses pilares, o Brasil caminhará na direção do pleno emprego e da prosperidade. Espero trazer boas experiências e avanços ao nosso país!she doesn't want to hang out with the *citizens of snow wear* https://t.co/TVRFXO0JXF Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news

Dutch exporters warn of major delivery problems if Britain crashes out of the EUMeet Brexit’s latest potential victim: the Mother’s Day bouquet. While the tumult in Westminster is keeping political pundits in clover, the decision by MPs to vote down Theresa May’s deal this week has sent petals flying among Dutch exporters, who are responsible for 80% of the flowers sold in British shops.As the risk of a no-deal Brexit was raised, LTO Nederland, the organisation that represents Dutch agricultural producers, formally warned its members of major problems if they do not get products into the UK before Brexit day on 29 March.Related: Businesses to demand emergency measures if MPs reject Brexit deal Continue reading...

Gloomy end to year for retailers but sales growth for 2018 as a whole was up on 2017British consumers reined in their spending in December after splashing out during November on Black Friday promotions, according to official figures that confirmed the tough festive shopping period on the high street.The Office for National Statistics said the quantity of goods bought last month fell by 0.9% compared to November, when Black Friday deals encouraged shoppers to bring forward some of their Christmas spending. Continue reading...

UK lenders predict falling demand for credit cards and mortgages, as Brexit crisis rolls on

Lords report accuses ministers of ‘inflation shopping’ with tactical use of RPI and CPIStudents and rail passengers have been unfairly penalised by the government using a “flawed” measure of inflation that needs to be urgently fixed, according to a highly critical report from peers.Ministers have been able to use a tactic of “inflation shopping” to select the retail prices index measure of inflation when it stands to benefit the exchequer, and the typically lower consumer prices index to keep a lid on outgoings, the House of Lords economic affairs committee said.Related: Student loans: use of RPI costs graduates up to £16,000Related: Rail users to mount 'national day of action' over 3.1% fare rise Continue reading...

It’s not plausible that either Brexit in name only or no exit at all can lead to radical reform of our broken systemThe pound rose, and all was calm on the stock market. As far as the financial markets were concerned, the message was clear: the voting down by MPs of Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement means a delayed Brexit, a softer Brexit or perhaps no Brexit at all. Those with serious wealth in Britain have always been worried that Brexit will lead to radical change. They now think that there will be a perpetuation of the status quo – or something not far removed from it. Hence the pound getting stronger.There’s no question that opting for the quiet life has its attractions. There would be a boost to the economy as companies decided to push ahead with investment plans that had been delayed while the outcome of Brexit was uncertain. And, of course, any economic costs of no deal would be avoided. Continue reading...

Bank of England governor Mark Carney has told MPs that UK banks can cope with disorderly Brexit, but investors believe it’s less likely following Tuesday’s vote

Drop in fuel and clothing prices spur drop to 2.1%, offering respite to consumersUK inflation fell to its lowest level in nearly two years in December after a drop in petrol prices offered some respite to consumers who are reining in spending as Brexit looms.The annual rate dipped to 2.1% from 2.3% in November, the weakest since January 2017, according to the Office for National Statistics. Economists said the drop reduced the likelihood that the Bank of England would raise interest rates in the near future.Inflation is when prices rise. Deflation is the opposite – price decreases over time – but inflation is far more common.Up Continue reading...

Eddie Lampert may be able to keep roughly 400 remaining Sears stores open and save tens of thousands of jobs, at least for nowSears will live on at least for now.The company’s chairman and largest shareholder, Eddie Lampert, won a bankruptcy auction for Sears, averting liquidation of the iconic chain, according to a source familiar with the negotiations. The person agreed to speak on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the negotiation publicly.Related: Closing down sale: is this the end of Sears?Related: Laid-off Sears workers left with nothing – and they say wealthy bosses are to blame Continue reading...

Instead of giving tax breaks to billionaires and large corporations, we must demand that they pay their fair shareDonald Trump tells us the US economy is “absolutely booming”, the “strongest we’ve ever had” and “the greatest in the history of America”.Well, at his Mar-a-Lago country club where the price of admission has doubled to $200,000, he is right. The economy could not be better for the top 1% and corporate America.Related: Donald Trump's fast food banquet – feeding the people Whoppers, as ever | Hannah Jane ParkinsonWhile working families continue to struggle, the US now has more income and wealth inequality than at any time since the 1920s Continue reading...

After extreme weather-related events, there is ‘need for international cooperation’Growing tension between the world’s major powers is the most urgent global risk and makes it harder to mobilise collective action to tackle climate change, according to a report prepared for next week’s World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.Related: Deadly weather: the human cost of 2018's climate disasters – visual guideRelated: US-China trade war: is the time ripe for peace to break out? | Larry Elliott Continue reading...

Shareholders in the stricken airline may feel aggrieved at the hurried sale but it was long overdueWhat a day for democratic debate! Well, not at Flybe. Shareholders, still reeling from the board’s decision last Friday to accept a takeover offer at 1p a share, or just £2.2m, have now learned they won’t get a meaningful vote on the deal. The directors have instead agreed to flog the regional airline’s assets almost immediately at the same price to the same bidder, a consortium comprising Virgin Atlantic, Stobart and investment firm Cyrus.Is that even legal at a public company? It seems it is, or rather it will be on Thursday, which is when Flybe switches its stock market listing from “premium” to “standard” status. The latter does not require shareholders to approve major asset sales. Continue reading...

Markets now turn to assess the prospect of a delayed Brexit and PM’s looming no-confidence vote

All discussion of Brexit or any other issue should be in the context of the need for government to enter emergency mode, writes Caro New, campaigns co-ordinator of the Green partyThe Guardian is the only newspaper to recognise the seriousness of the threat we face from accelerating climate breakdown. Yet you, like Labour, still treat it as an “add-on” – as a separate subject, not something that, in Naomi Klein’s words, changes everything. Thus Jonathan Haidt and Pamela Paresky (Opinion, 10 January) write about the mental effects of childhood stress, never mentioning how terrifying it is for children to live in an environment of existential threat coupled with denial. Thus Owen Jones (Opinion, 10 January) discusses Labour’s Brexit choices and the need to reverse austerity, with no recognition that redistribution must now be within an economy focused on reducing emissions to net zero by 2030, not on “good” growth. All discussion of Brexit or any other policy issue should now be in the context of the need for central and local government to enter emergency mode.

A pledge to help disenfranchised, leave-voting areas will mean nothing without more funds and a department for the regionsCity versus town? It might seem a facile debate in a small country where the interests of both should be aligned. What’s the difference, apart from size? Quite a lot, actually. For the past few decades, lobbying by a group of large cities has placed big population centres at the forefront of what remains of urban policy. Larger cities were seen as the engines of growth, portrayed as the economic saviours for surrounding communities. A contestable point, certainly. But these cities found a welcoming ear in government.The government responded with devolution deals to create combined authorities, led by mayors, in six city-regions, including Greater Manchester, the West Midlands and Merseyside. But Theresa May went cool on the idea, instead preferring to reinvigorate “Brexit Britain”: those places which voted leave in June 2016. The PM even popped into a village up the hill from my Tyneside home to reassure the north (62 of the 73 local authority areas in northern England voted leave) that she was determined to deliver equity across the country: “It is my mission to make sure that ... no community is left behind as we plan both our domestic agenda and our Brexit strategy,” she said. Continue reading...

Martin Steer JP and Christine Walters respond to Rory Stewart’s suggestion that jail terms of less than six months could be scrappedPetty offenders are only jailed way into a long pattern of offending and failure to respond to non-custodial sentences. Prison is employed by magistrates usually as a last resort as the bench knows full well that rehabilitation in these days of austerity is unlikely – it is unlikely even for longer sentences.When the courts have tried all non-custodial punishments escalating from discharges, through fines, to low-level community penalties, medium community penalties, then high-level community penalties, and the drug user/habitual yob on a hair trigger/recidivist hasn’t responded, what does Rory Stewart suggest they do next (Jail terms of six months or less could be scrapped, prisons minister suggests, theguardian.com, 12 January)? Continue reading...

Schools are in urgent need of greater understanding and alternative strategies, writes Dr Simon Gibbs. Funding is a factor, says Paul MoranLast year I gave a paper based on my book Immoral Education: The Assault on Teachers’ Identities, Autonomy and Efficacy to academics in the Netherlands. When I told them that part of my argument was the rate at which young people were being excluded from schools and gave them the figures, the response was that “if that were happening here there would be national outrage”. The UK figures are now even worse (School exclusion rates in London double the national average, 12 January). The most recent figures from the DfE reveal that 7,720 young people were permanently excluded from schools in 2016-17. Of these, more than half were in year 9 or above. Children eligible for free school meals were more than four times more likely to be excluded than those not eligible, children with special educational needs more than six times more likely than those not, and there were disproportionate numbers from certain ethnic heritages among those excluded. Although schools are the agents of this phenomenon, the reasons for this scandal lie deeper in the nature of education and the pressures on schools to perform, and are in urgent need of greater understanding and alternative strategies.

Stock markets are down again as weak eurozone factory output and Chinese trade woes worry investors

Financial markets around the world sell off sharply after drop in Chinese exportsFears are growing over the state of the global economy after China recorded a shock fall in exports, while European factory output declined by the biggest margin in almost three years.In a sign that the worldwide slowdown is gathering pace, official figures showed Chinese exports were down 4.4% in December – the largest fall since 2016 – on the back of faltering demand in most of its key markets. Imports fell 7.6% to reflect waning domestic demand.Related: US-China trade war: is the time ripe for peace to break out? | Larry Elliott Continue reading...

Harold Wilson was right: we need a separate department for the economy to boost growthThe Treasury is the most powerful institution in Whitehall. It is actually a super-ministry combining functions separated in many other countries: management of the economy and control of the public finances.These two functions are not accorded equal weight and never have been. The Treasury has always been primarily a finance ministry that views its main task as ensuring the nation’s budget arithmetic adds up.Related: Why the UK economy needs a platform 9¾ leap of imagination Continue reading...

Labour’s leader stands on the principle that members make party policy – and the majority of them are Remainers‘So what,” the schoolboy son of a friend asked, while being forced to listen to the Today programme on the school run, “was politics before Brexit?”This brought back memories of my own naive inquiry of my father at the end of the second world war: “Will there be any more news, Daddy?” Not too enlightened for an embryonic journalist, but you can see the point.I keep having to remind people that a host of very prosperous people voted Leave, for reasons best known to themselves Continue reading...

The bricks-and-mortar chain is the latest high-profile victim of the shift to online shopping but some wounds are self-inflictedThere can be few bleaker testaments to the beleaguered condition of US retail than the Sears department store in Flatbush, Brooklyn. Once a flagship of the world’s largest retailer, the landmarked art deco building was opened in 1932 by Eleanor Roosevelt, who made the first purchase ever in this location, “a pair of baby booties”, according to the Brooklyn Eagle. There’s little of that historic legacy on display today.There is just one entrance open at the store now. The walls are a dirty beige and much of the merchandise sub-discount. Yet many of the shoppers said they were pleased to come and browse. Unlike hundreds of shuttered stores across the country, it is at least still in business.Related: Sears liquidation looms after $4.4bn takeover deal faulters Continue reading...

First daughter’s name said to be ‘floating around Washington’ but it wouldn’t be her first unconventional roleThe Financial Times reported on Friday that the name of Ivanka Trump is “floating around Washington” regarding the need for a new president of the World Bank.The role will soon be open due to the surprise departure of the current president, Jim Yong Kim. But on politics Twitter, at least, the idea that his replacement might be the first daughter was met with widespread derision.Related: 'Judge me by my enemies': Comey and Trump find common ground in FDR lineRelated: You’d think Ivanka Trump would be worried about her emails. But guess what? | Emma Brockes Continue reading...

Leveraged loans are ringing alarm bells for regulators who fear a repeat of 2008’s mortgage disasterWhen an expert in financial risk at one of the world’s most powerful private equity outfits tells investors to scale down their exposure to a specific corner of the debt market, it is worth taking notice.Henry McVey, who sits on the risk committee at KKR, said last week that the leveraged loan market – a $1.3tn (£1tn) pile of risky corporate loans – had been on a “great run in recent years” but the firm was now cutting its exposure to the asset class to zero.Small changes in default rates in the loans or even in expectations of same could cause a meltdown Continue reading...

Switching from Waitrose to Morrisons could save shoppers £170 a year, survey findsShoppers looking to tighten their belts after the Christmas blowout could save money by online shopping at Morrisons, according to a new Which? survey.The consumer group’s analysis found that on average, the Bradford-based supermarket offered the cheapest online groceries, based on a basket containing 77 popular branded products including Andrex toilet roll, Hovis bread and Cathedral City cheddar cheese. Continue reading...

Manufacturing is struggling, growth is unbalanced – and solving Brexit won’t fix our woesJudged by what is happening in the rest of Europe, Britain’s economic performance in late 2018 was reasonably good. France was paralysed by the gilets jaunes protests, while Germany and Italy flirted with recession. The UK is likely to have grown by 0.3% in the final three months of 2018, and by contrast with the other major European economies that’s not too shabby.Look beneath the bonnet of the economy, though, and things don’t look quite so good. It is not really that growth halved between the third and fourth quarters, because activity was unusually high in the summer and early autumn as a result of the World Cup, a heatwave and a bounce back from the weather-related hit to growth earlier in the year.Related: UK GDP growth slows to 0.3% as manufacturing stalls Continue reading...

Data grabbing | Country diary | Cost of stamps | A question of perspective | Steepest street titleThe solution is surely to use the non-profit Ecosia search engine that plants trees and quite simply guarantees that it protects your data (Together we can thwart big tech’s data grab, Opinion, 7 January)?

The UK economy grew by 0.3% in the three months to November, the weakest rate in six months, dragged lower by a fall in car production

From China to Europe and beyond it is likely to be a nerve-racking yearAs Mark Twain never said: “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you think you know for sure that just ain’t so.” Over the course of this year and next, the biggest economic risks will emerge in those areas where investors think recent patterns are unlikely to change. They will include a growth recession in China, a rise in global long-term real interest rates and a crescendo of populist economic policies that undermine the credibility of central bank independence, resulting in higher interest rates on “safe” advanced-country government bonds.A significant Chinese slowdown may already be unfolding. The US president Donald Trump’s trade war has shaken confidence but this is only a downward shove to an economy that was already slowing as it makes the transition from export- and investment-led growth to more sustainable domestic consumption-led growth. How much the Chinese economy will slow is an open question; but, given the inherent contradiction between an ever-more centralised Party-led political system and the need for a more decentralised consumer-led economic system, long-term growth could fall quite dramatically.Related: How will central bankers cope when the next recession comes?The notion that additional debt is a free lunch is foolish Continue reading...

New emission tests, Brexit fears and weak demand apply brakes to wider economyThe British economy slowed in the three months to November as car manufacturing went into reverse amid the broadest drop in industrial production since 2012.In a sign of mounting weakness in the economy, with fewer than 80 days to go before Brexit, the Office for National Statistics said GDP growth cooled to 0.3%, down from a rate of 0.4% in the three months to October.Gross domestic product (GDP) is a key government statistic and provides a measure of the UK's total economic activity.Related: What are biggest risks to the global economy in 2019? | Kenneth Rogoff Continue reading...

Exclusive: Carolyn Fairbairn of industry body will urge MPs to put economy before politics

Weak consumer demand prompts department store chain to consider scrapping bonus for first time since 1953John Lewis is considering suspending its staff bonus for the first time in 66 years in the wake of the worst Christmas for retailers since the depths of the financial crisis.The employee-owned department store group, which also owns Waitrose, said it would “need to consider carefully … whether payment of a bonus is prudent in the light of business and economic prospects at that time”.What's the problem?Related: Sainsbury's Christmas sales hit by struggles at Argos Continue reading...

Greek PM Alexis Tsipras praises new ‘relationship of trust’ with German chancellorAngela Merkel arrived in Greece on Thursday for a two-day visit to the country that has posed some of the greatest challenges of her time at the helm of Europe’s powerhouse economy.It is a trip heavy with symbolism for a leader whose policies have defined the continent and who has announced she will leave office at the end of her term in 2021.Related: Greek PM promises relief measures after years of austerity Continue reading...

Supermarket records best festive sales performance in nearly a decadeTesco has emerged as one of the winners of the Christmas period, reporting its best growth in nearly a decade, while other major retailers such as John Lewis and Marks & Spencer suffered.Britain’s biggest retailer posted 2.2% growth in UK like-for-like sales in the six weeks to 5 January, its strongest Christmas performance since December 2009. Sales rose 0.7% in the 13 weeks to 24 November. Continue reading...

Sales by retailer of car accessories and bikes fall as shares slump to six-year lowMore than £120m was wiped off the value of the Halfords bikes and car maintenance chain on Thursday after the retailer issued its second profits warning in a year, blaming mild weather and lower consumer confidence for a fall in sales.The company’s shares slumped by more than 20%, to a six-year low of 217p, as the retailer said that its profits would be only around £60m this year, rather than the £70m City retail analysts had expected.What's the problem? Continue reading...

Beijing talks look to have neatly concluded, just in time for Trump to visit Davos and claim victoryEverything is slotting neatly into place for peace to be declared in the trade war between the US and China. The 90-day truce brokered between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at the G20 summit last month is holding and talks at official level in Beijing this week have gone well.China’s eagerness for a deal was shown when Xi’s righthand man on economic issues, Liu He, turned up unexpectedly at the start of this week’s talks. Xi is sensitive to the damage Trump could cause to China’s slowing economy and wants a rapid agreement.Even while running for president, Donald Trump waged a war of words against China, promising punitive import tariffs to “bring back” jobs to America.Related: Shops suffer worst December in a decade as Brexit fears take toll Continue reading...

Trade war with US is handbrake on growth in world’s second biggest economySales of cars in China have dropped for the first time in almost 30 years, a sign of the importance of ending the country’s trade dispute with the US as the world economy begins to falter.As the US and China appeared to be edging closer to ending the trade dispute between them on Wednesday, the figures illustrate how the bitter standoff, as well as sluggish local demand, have acted as a handbrake on growth in the world’s second biggest economy.Related: US-China trade war: is the time ripe for peace to break out? | Larry Elliott Continue reading...

Slump in third quarter adds to dismal record on improving efficiency since financial crisisThe productivity growth of British workers fell to a two-year low in the third quarter of last year, according to official figures released amid warnings that failures of government policy and Brexit are holding back efficiency gains.According to the Office for National Statistics, annual growth in economic output per hour of work slumped to 0.2% in the three months to September, down from 1.6% in the second quarter and marking the weakest period since the third quarter of 2016. Continue reading...

Closure of agriculture department offices could not have come at a worse time for farmers awaiting emergency federal aidJust as American farmers thought Donald Trump had rescued them from the economic consequences of his trade war with China, along came the government shutdown.Related: American farmers fear being caught up in Trump's trade warsRelated: The Iowa farmers on the frontline of Trump's trade war with ChinaRelated: Trump administration to provide $12bn in aid to farmers hurt by tariffs Continue reading...

Struggling chain blames ‘worrying’ fall in sales on tough consumer market and move to offer fewer discountsMothercare’s problems continued over the key festive trading period as the retailer blamed a sharp fall in sales on a tough consumer backdrop and its decision to offer fewer discounts than a year earlier.The struggling baby and maternity chain said sales at UK stores open for more than a year fell by 11.4% in the 13 weeks to 5 January, while online sales tumbled by 16.3%.Maplin, Toys R Us and Jacques Vert have all collapsed in recent months, but several retailers and restaurant groups are facing financial problems and are trying to close stores or negotiate rent cuts. Continue reading...

All the day’s economic and financial news, as Germany’s factories suffer a 4.7% annual drop in output

Not just the eurozone at risk but countries further east and south, such as Belarus and TurkeyA no-deal Brexit will have a negative economic impact from Moldova to Morocco, as the shockwaves sweep eastwards across Europe and through trade links to North Africa, the World Bank has warned.Unlike previous reports which focused on the UK and the 27 members of the European Union, the Washington-based organisation said nations from Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova in the east, and around the Mediterranean from Turkey and Egypt to Morocco would also suffer should Britain and the EU fail to agree a deal.A hard Brexit would take Britain out of the EU’s single market and customs union and ends its obligations to respect the four freedoms, make big EU budget payments and accept the jurisdiction of the ECJ: what Brexiters mean by “taking back control” of Britain’s borders, laws and money. It would mean a return of trade tariffs, depending on what (if any) FTA was agreed. See our full Brexit phrasebook. Continue reading...

If Europe’s biggest economy bumps into a slump then UK bargaining power may changeTake Europe’s three biggest economies and list them in order of the likelihood of being in recession in the second half of 2018. Chances are Brexit-bound Britain would come first followed by France after its gilets jaunes protests. Germany would come last.In fact, it is the eurozone’s locomotive economy that is at biggest risk of fulfilling the technical definition of recession – two consecutive quarters of falling output. After contracting by 0.2% in the third quarter, the latest news from Germany suggests it may have struggled to grow in the fourth quarter as well. Continue reading...

Andrew Halls of King’s College School writes that there is barely any difference in difficulty between GCSEs and IGCSEs, while Bernie Evans is concerned about the Pre-U examinationsIt is untruthful to suggest that private schools take IGCSEs because they are easier (Labour calls for an inquiry into GCSE changes ‘gamed by private schools’, 31 December).Until 2010, grade inflation had been rampant at both GCSE and A-level for at least a decade. During the years of New Labour, syllabuses were dumbed down, with simplistic coursework a key requirement of almost every subject. For a few unhappy years, GCSEs even became modular, as A-levels then were, so the nation’s children took public exams every single summer from year 10 to year 13. Continue reading...

International aid community shocked by decision to quit three years early and join private sectorJim Yong Kim has announced he is stepping down as the head of the World Bank, in a move that sent shockwaves through the international aid community.He will leave by 1 February, three and a half years before the expiry of his term in 2022.Founded in 1944 at the Bretton Woods conference as a vehicle to support the reconstruction of postwar Europe, the World Bank made its first loan to France in 1947. Continue reading...

Brexit uncertainty and the diesel emissions scandal has hurt demand for new cars, warns industry body

Policymakers who think fiscal policy alone is enough are setting themselves up for a shockIf you ask most central bankers around the world what their plan is for dealing with the next normal-size recession, you would be surprised how many (at least in advanced economies) say “fiscal policy”. Given the high odds of a recession over the next two years – about 40% in the US, for example – monetary policymakers who think fiscal policy alone will save the day are setting themselves up for a rude awakening.Yes, it is true that with policy interest rates near zero in most advanced economies (and just above 2% even in the fast-growing US), there is little room for monetary policy to manoeuvre in a recession without considerable creativity. The best idea is to create an environment in which negative interest-rate policies can be used more fully and effectively. This will eventually happen, but in the meantime, today’s overdependence on countercyclical fiscal policy is dangerously naïve.Related: US and China resume trade talks with both eager for compromise Continue reading...

Asian shares rise as fresh round of negotiations begins amid concerns about a slowdown in the Chinese economyUS and Chinese officials held their first face-to-face negotiations since a 90-day truce was declared in a trade war between Washington and Beijing, in the hope of ending a bruising confrontation between the world’s two largest economies.Hopes that the sixth round of negotiations between the two sides could yield a breakthrough helped Asian shares rise on Monday, combined with optimism about the state of the global economy on the back of strong US jobs figures on Friday.Related: China's moon landing proves it is more than just a paper dragon | Larry Elliott Continue reading...

Austerity and wage stagnation to blame for ‘crisis level’ unsecured loans, says TUCBritain’s household debt mountain has reached a new peak, with UK homes now owing an average of £15,385 to credit card firms, banks and other lenders, according to the TUC.The trade union body said household debt rose sharply in 2018 as years of austerity and wage stagnation forced households to increase their borrowing.Related: Britain is crippled by record personal debt while the Tories boast of a boom | Maya Goodfellow Continue reading...