From Brexit experts to Grenfell inspectors, non-government organisations are being told not to create ‘adverse publicity’

The cross-party education select committee firmly believes that if students are going to take on the big burden of a loan, there must surely be a good graduate job at the end of it, writes Robert Halfon MPI welcome the debate on what universities and higher education should be for, but Zoe Williams clearly needs to look at the education committee’s findings more closely rather than just highlighting one line out of one of my speeches (For Tories, the poor don’t need education, Journal, 6 November).Our report this week is focused on skills, social justice and good graduate outcomes. The fact is we have a huge skills deficit in our country, with the manufacturers organisation, the EEF, warning that almost three-quarters of businesses are concerned about finding workers with the skills they need. Yet just eight out of 24 Russell Group universities are offering degree apprenticeships. Continue reading...

Gridlock on Capitol Hill reduces chance of further fiscal stimulus and tax cuts, economists say

Analysts say a Chinese recession would only hurt the region. That may be wishful thinkingWhen China finally has its inevitable growth recession – which will almost surely be amplified by a financial crisis, given the economy’s massive leverage – how will the rest of world be affected? With US President Donald Trump’s trade war hitting China just as growth was already slowing, this is no idle question.Typical estimates, for example those embodied in the International Monetary Fund’s assessments of country risk, suggest an economic slowdown in China will hurt everyone. But the acute pain, according to the IMF, will be more regionally concentrated and confined than would be the case for a deep recession in the United States. Unfortunately, this might be wishful thinking.Related: Trump is reckless – but he knows he can't afford to antagonise China | Barry Eichengreen Continue reading...

Share price drops and chain announces founder Tim Martin is recovering from burst appendixJD Wetherspoon may raise its prices in the coming months as the pub chain warned of weaker trading, higher staff costs and said its founder and chairman, Tim Martin, would be working part time for several weeks as he recovers from a burst appendix.In a trading update for its first quarter, the pubs firm said that while it would not immediately pass on a higher wage bill to customers through price rises, it was under review. Continue reading...

Sellers are realising first offer they receive could well be their only one, analyst saysAnnual house price growth has fallen to its lowest rate in more than five years, according to Halifax.Across the UK, house prices increased by 1.5% annually in October, following a 2.5% annual increase in September, Halifax said.Related: Confidence in housing market 'collapsing', NAB survey says Continue reading...

IPPR launches world’s third biggest economics prize looking to restart UK growthOne of the biggest cash prizes in world economics has been launched to find “radical ideas” to reinvigorate the British economy.Launched against a backdrop of deep public distrust in politicians to revitalise the UK economy, the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) thinktank has lined up an £150,000 prize fund to uncover fresh ideas. Continue reading...

Sterling rises on ‘thumbs-up’ hopes, as markets also wait for US midterm results

Bank had been accused by murdered journalist Daphne Caruana Galizia of processing corrupt paymentsA Maltese bank at the heart of a money-laundering investigation has had its licence withdrawn by the European Central Bank.Pilatus Bank, which opened four years ago, was officially closed down several months after its Iranian chairman and owner, Ali Sadr Hasheminejad, was charged in the US in connection with money-laundering and fraud.Related: ​Bank criticised by Daphne Caruana Galizia under scrutiny in Brussels Continue reading...

Nicky Morgan says decision to delay cut in maximum stakes could cost 300 extra lives

UK companies report that new business has weakened as anxiety over Brexit and the global economic outlook rise

Bruno Le Maire says future of euro at stake as finance chiefs urge Rome to rethink policies

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Leader portrays China as champion of globalisation ahead of talks with US president at G20 – but Asian shares continue to slideXi Jinping has promised to lower import tariffs and improve access to the Chinese market in remarks meant to portray his country as a champion of globalisation as it remains locked in a trade war with the US.“Protectionism and unilateralism is rising. Multilateralism and the free trade system are under threat … China will not close its door to the world and will only become more and more open”, the Chinese president said on Monday at the beginning of a trade fair in Shanghai.Related: Despite rapid growth in wages, Trump should be concerned | Larry ElliottRelated: Shares soar as Trump hints at possible US-China trade dealBut the point is that even with a horrendous 15 years, China would still hit the $40trn import goal. So either Xi has made a pledge that is effectively meaningless; or planners are deeply bearish about the economy's prospects. I think we know which one it is. (/END) Continue reading...

Readers respond to Preston’s success, Channel 4’s move to Leeds and Simon Jenkins’ proposal to move parliament to the north with ideas for a new political landscapeChannel 4’s move to Leeds must be just the beginning (Channel 4 chooses Leeds as its new UK headquarters, 1 November). The ambitions of this public service broadcaster must go beyond relocating 200 staff up the M1. To make a truly significant contribution, it must act as an “anchor” of a fairer and more sustainable local economy.This means working with other anchor institutions like the city council, universities, NHS trusts and the police to pay fair wages, buy local, and to invest in the city and its people. By adopting this approach, Preston council and their anchors have generated £200m for the Lancashire economy. This strategy undoubtedly played a role in Preston being named as Britain’s most improved city. Continue reading...

In the lead-up to his Australian visit, the renowned economist warns of the triple threat of rising inequality, the undermining of democracy and climate changeIt’s a stark message from a Nobel-prize winning economist.“We were a very different country 40 years ago,” he says. “The downhill slide has been pretty fast. America, I think, should be an important warning to other countries not to take for granted their institutions. I worry that things in the United States could get much worse.”Most Americans want a higher minimum wage, they want gun control, they want access to healthcare … yet our democracy can’t deliver itRelated: Joseph Stiglitz on artificial intelligence: 'We’re going towards a more divided society'The magnitude of the dysfunction [on climate change] is unbelievable Continue reading...

Country’s leaders remain defiant but citizens fear of impact on healthcare and currencyIranians are bracing for the full force of US sanctions due to hit on Monday as the Trump administration reimposes an embargo on oil, the most stringent set of punitive measures since Washington withdrew from the 2015 landmark nuclear deal, known as Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.The new sanctions, which also aim to cut off Iran’s banking sector from the global market, are timed to coincide with the anniversary of the 1979 storming by Iranian revolutionaries of the US embassy in Tehran, when angry students took 52 American diplomats hostage for 444 days.Related: Iran sanctions: Khamenei says world opposes every Trump decision Continue reading...

This is as good as it gets for the president’s first term – labour shortages will fuel interest ratesThe US has its lowest unemployment rate since Richard Nixon was in the White House 48 years ago. Wages are growing at their fastest rate in almost a decade. No other G7 country will come close to matching America’s growth rate this year.All of which ought to be a concern for Donald Trump. If that sounds weird, consider the facts. When running against Hillary Clinton in 2016, Trump said he would put the world’s biggest economy back to work and so far he is doing so. He said he would repudiate or rewrite the “horrible” trade agreements his predecessors entered into and he has been as good as his word. The promise in his inauguration speech to put “America first” has been met in full.Related: Trump's WTO threats matter – especially to a post-Brexit BritainRelated: An economic recovery based around high debt is really no recovery | Larry Elliott Continue reading...

Our former PM apparently has regrets over the EU referendum. We have to deal with the consequences of his mistakeAlmost everywhere I go, people ask me: “Where is David Cameron?” I must admit that I occasionally bump into him. He gives a superficial impression of insouciance, but one hears on the grapevine that, privately, he regrets having called that referendum.Now we also hear that “friends” of Cameron say he wishes at some stage to return to a cabinet job, although presumably not under Theresa May. Has he no shame?I am reassured that commentators have not been fooled by claims that Hammond's budget heralded the end of austerity Continue reading...

Petrol prices have risen 20% in the past year, moving the issue to the top of the political agenda. But why? About half the cost is down to the international oil price but taxes make up 35% and politicians of both sides have not hesitated to manipulate the rate for advantage. The Coalition and Labor are now bidding to look like champions for consumers Continue reading...

FTSE 100 closes down 18 points while Wall Street drops after release of strong jobs market dataA strong week for global stocks has ended on an uncertain note at a time of fears over delays to resolve the American trade dispute with China and concerns over rising US interest rates.The FTSE 100 closed down 18 points on Friday, while Wall Street dropped in afternoon trading in New York after the release of strong jobs market data that could push the US Federal Reserve towards raising interest rates next month.Related: Slipping sales bite into Apple's $1tn pricetag Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of market reaction to Donald Trump’s trade optimism and US non-farm payrolls

Huge underfunding means that the illicitly wealthy escape the clutches of the law – and everyday crimes go unpunishedOn Thursday morning, two crime stories dominated the news.One was a government crackdown on the £100bn of “dirty money” that has been laundered through the UK. The security minister, Ben Wallace, has in his sights the lawyers and accountants, public schools and car washes that facilitate or benefit from this wrongdoing – and are, he claimed in a Guardian interview, as bad as the criminals themselves. Continue reading...

Wages were 3.1% higher in September than they were a year ago – the first time since April 2009 that growth topped 3%The US added 250,000 jobs in October – the last jobs report before Donald Trump’s first midterm elections. In good news for the president, wages grew at their fastest rate for close to a decade.Analysts had been expecting the US to add around 188,000 jobs over the month. In September the unemployment rate fell 3.7%, a 49-year low, and remained there in October.Wow! The U.S. added 250,000 Jobs in October - and this was despite the hurricanes. Unemployment at 3.7%. Wages UP! These are incredible numbers. Keep it going, Vote Republican! Continue reading...

President’s positive remarks about a call with Xi Jinping, and a report that he has asked officials to draw up terms, lift marketsAsian shares have surged on reports that Donald Trump wants to reach an agreement with Chinese president Xi Jinping about the trade dispute that has dogged markets for months.Related: Who deserves the credit for strong US economy? | Michael BoskinJust had a long and very good conversation with President Xi Jinping of China. We talked about many subjects, with a heavy emphasis on Trade. Those discussions are moving along nicely with meetings being scheduled at the G-20 in Argentina. Also had good discussion on North Korea!Related: China hits back at US with $60bn of new tariffs Continue reading...

Monetary policy committee holds interest rates at 0.75%

The Bank of England warning aims to focus MPs’ minds on getting a Brexit deal done. Project Fear Mk II might just workPicture the scene. The UK economy is in turmoil after the government fails to reach a Brexit deal with the EU. Amid fears of a looming recession, the Bank of England turns the screw by raising interest rates.Unlikely? Not according to Threadneedle Street, which has warned there is no guarantee that it would respond to the shock of a no-deal Brexit by reducing borrowing costs, which was what it did in the aftermath of the referendum in 2016.Lenders have already bumped up the cost of fixed rate mortgages ahead of the Bank of England’s decision to raise base rate from 0.25% to 0.5%, and mortgage borrowers on tracker and variable rates will see their monthly payments become more expensive in the coming days. ​ Continue reading...

This Tory promise is a bare-faced lie. Look at the list of government departments who face yet more savage cutsThe dust clears. It takes time after a budget for thinktanks and analysts to pore over the numbers in the Treasury’s Red Book. It takes a few days longer for each part of the public sector to absorb the full effect of the hammer blows rained down on them again, curiously missing from the chancellor’s speech.It didn’t take long for George Osborne to make a rare public appearance on Newsnight to defend his austerian age. With Theresa May announcing the “end of austerity” and Philip Hammond pretending to loosen the purse strings, Osborne was there in the TV studio to defend his legacy.Related: How dangerous is Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil's new president? - podcastRelated: Britain’s last budget in the EU is a sticking plaster for a nation in decline | Polly Toynbee Continue reading...

Labour-run council with localist economic policies tops Good Growth for Cities indexPreston, the Lancastrian city labelled as a poster child for “Corbynomics,” has been named as the most rapidly improving urban area in the UK to live and work.Research carried out by the accountancy firm PricewaterhouseCoopers and the thinktank Demos, which used a range of measures including employment, workers’ pay, house prices, transport, the environment, work-life-balance and inequality to rank 42 UK cities, found that Preston had improved the most in its 2018 Good Growth for Cities index. Continue reading...

The slump of Red October is easing, as spooked investors snap up shares again

Carmaker has £2.5bn plan to reduce costs as sales fall in China and EuropeThe 40,000 British employees of Jaguar Land Rover face the prospect of further job cuts after Britain’s biggest carmaker launched a £2.5bn plan to reduce costs and free up cash.JLR announced its intentions on Wednesday after slumping £90m into the red in the three months to September, hit by falling sales in China and Europe. Continue reading...

Chancellor told he is gambling with public finances and will be unable to balance booksPhilip Hammond has been told Britain needs to overhaul the tax system to raise more money for the NHS after using the budget to hand tax cuts to the rich while raising public borrowing.Urging the chancellor to conduct a formal review of taxation alongside the government’s planned spending review next year, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research said Hammond would be unable to balance the books in future without finding extra tax revenue. Continue reading...

New Zealand remains top of World Bank’s rankings despite no reforms in past yearNew Zealand has topped the World Bank’s ranking of the best countries to start and run a business in 2018, ahead of Singapore, Denmark and Hong Kong.The World Bank said New Zealand had retained its position in its Doing Business report ahead of 190 other countries, despite not implementing any reforms in the last year.Related: Oxfam criticises World Bank for backing deregulated labour markets Continue reading...

EU seminars will cover citizens’ rights, transport, border controls and financial servicesThe European Union is pressing ahead with plans for a no-deal Brexit, amid uncertainty about when high-level negotiations will resume.With 149 days until Brexit day, time is running out to secure a deal that the British government wants to nail down this autumn, to allow time for the agreement to gain assent from parliament and the European parliament.Related: Brexit phrasebook: a guide to the talks' key terms Continue reading...

Pressure begins to show amid a wider slowdown in the world’s second biggest economyThe Chinese economy has revealed fresh signs of the pressure of a trade war with the US and a wider slowdown at home as manufacturing activity fell and the yuan was fixed at a new 10-year low to the dollar.Related: No-deal Brexit would trigger lengthy UK recession, warns S&PRelated: The US-China trade war is unlikely to be settled soon | Nils Pratley Continue reading...

Credit agency warns of property price falls, unemployment doubling and inflation spiking in latest grim forecastBritain’s economy will suffer rising unemployment and falling household incomes that would trigger a recession should Theresa May fail to secure a deal to prevent the UK crashing out of the European Union next year, according to analysis by the global rating agency Standard & Poor’s.Property prices would slump and inflation would spike to more than 5% in a scenario that S&P said had become more likely in recent months following deadlock with Brussels over a post-Brexit deal.Unemployment would rise from current all-time low of 4% to 7.4% by 2020 – a rate last seen in the aftermath of the financial crisis;house prices would likely fall by 10% over two years;household incomes would be £2,700 lower a year after leaving without a deal;inflation would rise, peaking at 4.7% in mid-2019;London office prices could fall by 20% over two to three years, similar to the decline following the 2008 financial crash.Related: A no-deal Brexit would shorten the odds on a long UK recession Continue reading...

IFS among those warning the chancellor he could come to regret his ‘gamble’Napoleon once said it was better for generals to be lucky than good, and by that score, Theresa May picked well when she chose Philip Hammond as her chancellor.As the Institute for Fiscal Studies made clear in its post-budget analysis, Hammond just got very lucky indeed. In the run-up to the budget, Britain’s leading tax and spending experts said the chancellor had been put in a real bind by the prime minister and would only be able to fund extra investment in the NHS by raising taxes, borrowing more or taking the axe to spending elsewhere.Related: IFS says Hammond's budget is gambling with public finances Continue reading...

Readers air their views on the chancellor of the exchequer’s plans for taxing and spendingPolly Toynbee (A sticking plaster budget for a country in decline, Journal, 30 October) reports Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies as asking rhetorically why most countries in Europe raise more money in taxes than the UK. The answer is because they have higher levels of public spending. As I explain in my book Debt or Democracy, in the same way banks increase the money supply as they lend, states increase the money supply when they spend. By the same token, repayment of bank loans and state taxes and charges remove money from circulation.As Philip Hammond’s budget demonstrates, the level of proposed public spending is based on speculation about the likely future tax take, not some pre-existing tax piggy bank. It is only after each accounting period that the balance between tax and spending is revealed. Rather than squeezing money out of the pocket of a beleaguered (private) taxpayer, public spending is putting money in people’s pockets. Through taxation of both the public and private sectors, the state is asking for some or all of it back. The level of tax and spend is therefore a matter of political choice, not some immutable neoliberal economic logic.

Zero growth in Italy under populist government helped drag rate down to 0.2%Economic growth in the eurozone has slumped to levels last seen more than four years ago, after stagnation in Italy helped slow the rate of expansion to 0.2% in the latest quarter.Figures from the EU statistics agency Eurostat showed a marked and unexpected slowdown in the third quarter of 2018, in the latest evidence of an easing of economic activity around the world since the start of the year. Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the day’s political developments as they happen, including Philip Hammond’s morning interviews about his budget

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, including new growth figures from across the eurozone

Extra NHS funding ignores risk of UK accounts deteriorating badly after Brexit, thinktank says

If Brexit hits the UK as hard as many expect, this budget gift to taxpayers may be intended to keep the economy afloatWhy did Philip Hammond unexpectedly cut taxes for high earners a year early, in a budget supposedly all about ending austerity? And why won’t Labour, for all its ferocious rhetoric about championing the many not the few, pledge to reverse them?At first glance, the question seems almost too obvious to need an answer. Everyone likes free money. And since richer people tend to vote Tory, giving away money to richer people (nearly half the benefit of yesterday’s move to bring forward next year’s planned hike in allowances goes to the top 10% of households) tends to be a cynical but successful way of buying Tory votes. Standing between people and all that free money, conversely, tends to be electoral suicide for Labour. Which is why some at Westminster even wondered if this budget was laying the ground for a snap election before too long.Related: A budget to end austerity? Only if Hammond makes the rich pay | Polly Toynbee Continue reading...

CBI gauge falls further than expected with wage growth sluggish and inflation highUK retail sales growth slowed significantly in October as British consumers reined in their spending after a summer spree fuelled by warm weather and the World Cup, according to the latest industry figures.The latest snapshot from the Confederation of British Industry showed retail sales growth dropped to the weakest level since April, while separate government figures showed an increasing number of UK companies entering insolvency as trading conditions remain tough on the high street. Continue reading...

Top half of households to benefit from 84% of the cuts, says Resolution FoundationIncome tax cuts for millions of workers announced in Philip Hammond’s budget will “overwhelmingly benefit richer households”, analysis has found, with almost half set to go to the top 10% of households.The analysis by the Resolution Foundation (pdf) thinktank found that welfare cuts would continue to affect the poorest households, despite Hammond’s announcement that austerity was coming to an end.Related: From potholes to Brexit: an at-a-glance guide to the budgetRelated: From single parents to landlords: how will the budget affect people? Continue reading...

We’ve looked at the figures to see how Philip Hammond’s budget will affect your finances – whether you’re single, married, with or without children or retired•Read all our budget coverage in fullAll figures supplied by Turquoise Training & Consultancy (some have been rounded to nearest pound).Related: From single parents to landlords: how will the budget affect people? Continue reading...

£30bn of extra spending and tax cuts is money chancellor might have saved for a rainy day, says Treasury forecasterPhilip Hammond will allow the government’s spending deficit to rise next year as he seeks to pay for the first round of extra NHS spending and a series of measures that will “bring an end to the era of austerity”.The chancellor sanctioned a rise from 1.2% to 1.4% in the annual deficit between this year and 2019/20 as he sought to honour promises made by the prime minister to boost spending on health, local authority housing and a freeze on fuel duty. Continue reading...

Chancellor declares austerity is coming to an end with budget making little reference to risks of a no-deal BrexitPhilip Hammond declared “austerity is coming to an end,” on Monday, as he sought to reassure voters, and shore up the morale of fractious Tory MPs Theresa May needs to back her Brexit deal by peppering his budget speech with spending pledges and a surprise income tax cut.As negotiations with the EU27 enter their frantic final weeks, the chancellor cast off his cautious reputation and opted to spend almost all of a £68bn windfall handed to him over the next five years by the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).Related: Is austerity in the UK really over after 2018's budget?Working people cannot be fobbed off again with promises of a better tomorrow that never comes. Continue reading...

Philip Hammond set out his tax and spending plans – with more for road repairs than pupilsAn extra £420m was made available immediately for local authorities to tackle potholes and other minor road works. The AA had asked for a £1bn pothole fund to fill in the craters that are costing motorists dear.However, it was more than the £400m to help schools in England “buy the little extras they need”, equivalent to £10,000 per primary school and £50,000 per secondary school. The Labour MP Jess Phillips criticised the chancellor’s announcement that the money was spending on “kit”. She tweeted: “Phil my kids school is talking about shutting early on Fridays because they can’t staff it. It’s not because they don’t have footballs. FFS (the F is not fiscal).”The government announced new projects will no longer be funded by the private finance initiative (PFI), whose reputation was further tarnished by the collapse of the construction group Carillion. Its successor – PF2 – will also be scrapped.A new levy on non-recycled plastic packaging, meaning plastic with less than 30% recycled content will be taxed.£60m for planting trees.The basic personal allowance, or the part of your income where there is no income tax paid, rises from £11,850 to £12,500. This is a year earlier than expected and fulfils a manifesto pledge. It is worth £130 a year to 26 million taxpayers in the 20% income tax band.The starting point for 40% tax jumps to £50,00 from £46,350. That means an £860 gain for someone on £50,000, although increases to National Insurance peg the total gain back to £520.The national living wage, for workers aged over 25, will increase from £7.83 per hour to £8.21 in April, a 4.9% rise.Tobacco duty to rise with inflation plus 2%.Duty on Beer, cider and spirits – a boost for pubs and the whisky industry respectively – to be frozen for the next year.Wine did not get off as lightly and duty will rise in line with the retail price index.Fuel duty frozen for ninth year in a row.Tech firms, whose tax affairs are a regular lightning rod for criticism, are targeted with a new levy worth £400m per year. The digital services tax – to be imposed on search engines, social media platforms and online marketplaces – will be levied on UK-generated revenues of profitable firms with global revenues above £500m. So Facebook, Google and Amazon will all have to pay the tax.The high street is helped out with a third taken off business rates for certain retail premises.£675m to create a “future high streets fund” that councils can access to redevelop their high streets.Self-employed people who work for large and medium-sized companies will be affected by changes to rules around their tax status. They could be forced on the payroll if they work in the private sector.The controversial welfare reform will receive £1bn extra over five years to help claimants cope with the transition to a new system.There will also be payments for increased work allowances in universal credit, aimed at helping low-income working families, rising from £545m next year to £1.7bn per year by 2023/24.A £2bn boost for mental health funding.The NHS budget will increase by £20.5bn a year in real terms by 2023-24, as previously announced.An extra £650m in social care funding for local authorities in England next year.The independent body producing economic forecasts for the Treasury, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), predicted growth of 1.6% in 2019 (up from 1.2% in March forecasts), 1.4% in 2020 and 2021, 1.5% in 2022 and 1.6% in 2023.The OBR predicted government borrowing of £31.8bn in 2019/20 (down from £33.9bn previously forecast), £26.7bn in 2020/21, £23.8bn in 2021/2, £20.8bn in 2022-23 and £19.8bn in 2023/24. It had previously forecast borrowing of £45.2bn borrowing this year and £21.4bn in 2022-23.£30bn to improve roads, including £25.3bn for the major roads network.An additional £950m for the Scottish government between 2018 and 2021, with an extra £550m for the Welsh government over the same period and £320m for Northern Ireland.In a bid to boost house construction, the government announced the removal of the borrowing cap on local authority housebuilding.£1bn for the Ministry of Defence this year and next for cyber-defence, anti-submarine capabilities and maintaining the pace of the Dreadnought submarine programme.£160m in extra funding for counter-terrorism policing by 2019-20.£2bn to be brought in over next five years by measures to tackle tax avoidance and evasion.£500m in extra departmental spending on preparations for Brexit, on top of the £2.2bn already announced, and the extra £1.5bn announced last year. Continue reading...

Despite promises to the public, the chancellor has eased, not ended, harsh fiscal measuresPhilip Hammond knew what he had to do. With Theresa May sitting behind him, the chancellor’s job was to put flesh on the bones of the prime minister’s promise to the British public that the age of austerity was coming to an end.He made all the right noises. There was extra money to smooth the introduction of universal credit, now more generous than the benefits it is replacing. There was the carrot dangled in front of cabinet colleagues that they would have more money to divide up in next year’s spending round. There were dollops of extra cash for schools, anti-terrorism policing, repairing potholes, and anti-submarine surveillance. Continue reading...