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Updated 2025-01-11 10:15
Children in care are being failed – thanks to Tory short-termism | Daniel Lavelle
When I was in care the system was strained. A Manchester Evening News report shows that it’s now all but brokenI grew up in care, alongside 20 other children with whom I shared foster homes and children’s homes in Manchester. In May, I wrote a piece for the Guardian about the time I spent looking for those kids later in life. I only managed to find a handful, but all of those I did see again – 15 years later – had grappled with severe hardship since leaving the care system.Related: Revealed: cash crisis pushing child services to tipping pointRelated: I tried to track down all the friends I grew up with in care – here’s what I found Continue reading...
Argentina launches fresh austerity measures to stem peso crisis
President Macri will raise export taxes and slash spending in push to reduce budget deficitArgentina has announced sweeping new austerity measures in an attempt to stem its unfolding currency crisis, prior to receiving $50bn (£38.8bn) of funding from the International Monetary Fund.Speaking as the peso dropped to a fresh record low on Monday, President Mauricio Macri said the country was facing an economic emergency that would require austerity measures to resolve. Argentina will slash spending and raise export taxes in a push to accelerate reductions to its budget deficit.Related: Markets are all about the timing – and Argentina got clocked Continue reading...
UK manufacturing growth hits 25-month low amid Brexit fears
August figures dragged down by fall in exports and optimism for year ahead at 22-month lowBritain’s manufacturers face a difficult autumn as the Brexit deadline looms and Donald Trump’s trade sanctions hit exports, according to figures for the sector in August.A survey of manufacturers has found that growth slowed last month to its lowest level since July 2016, dragged down by a shock fall in exports.Related: Car manufacturing in Britain fell by 11% in July, reports SMMT Continue reading...
Steve Bannon: Australia is on ‘frontlines’ of economic war with China
Former Trump White House chief strategist says populist surge a ‘global revolution’ that is coming to AustraliaAustralia is on the “frontlines” of an economic war with China, a “totalitarian mercantilist” regime that must be confronted, according to former Trump White House chief strategist Steve Bannon.In a wide-ranging interview on ABC’s Four Corners, Bannon also said that the populist surge that swept Donald Trump to the US presidency and delivered the vote for Brexit in the UK was a “global revolution” that was coming to Australia.Related: Steve Bannon plans foundation to fuel far right in EuropeRelated: Hard-right columnists with no mass audience cause enough turmoil to ruin leaders | Jason Wilson Continue reading...
Harley-Davidson lovers in Milwaukee discuss Trump, tariffs … and time
Bikers are getting older and the chill from the president’s tariffs is getting colder – what’s an American icon to do?Milwaukee is a pretty city. On any normal day, visitors can walk around the genteel downtown area, taking in a slew of neo-gothic buildings, or look to the east, where sailboats bob on Lake Michigan.
Our financial system only works for the 1%. It will take another crash to fix it | John Quiggin
Financialised capitalism has failed, and cannot be fixed by more and better regulation
Trump's WTO threats matter – especially to a post-Brexit Britain
The World Trade Organisation is already hurtling towards a crisis, with the US having blocked new appeal judgesThe World Trade Organisation is hurtling towards crisis. Set up more than two decades ago to break down protectionist barriers and to ensure countries play by the rules of international commerce, the WTO is firmly in Donald Trump’s isolationist sights.Up to now, the White House has been waging war by stealth. Trump has garnered the big headlines for his broadsides against China, the European Union, and Canada, while at the same time conducting a quiet war against the WTO. Continue reading...
Wonga has gone, but the gig economy that made it necessary is still with us
Lenders will continue to offer payday loans, because the number of people living precarious lives is still risingThe demand for Wonga-like payday lenders is only going to rise and rise. Blame the digital age and its emphasis on speed and flexibility in all things.Wonga, which sank on Thursday under a mountain of compensation claims, is likely to rise from the ashes in a new guise and compete again with the many other financial firms offering instant loans at huge interest rates. The target market – that of people on low to average incomes who live from one micro-job to the next – is only going to get bigger. Wonga failed because it was too greedy and at times crossed the ethical line. Under a new management, a firm that plays it straight could still prosper.Every year, more jobs that were once full-time and salaried are converted to being part-time and self-employed Continue reading...
The Observer view on Britain’s shamefully inadequate children’s services | Observer editorial
Cash-starved councils are being forced to cut the early interventions that might keep vulnerable children out of careFor decades, local councils have been responsible for maintaining the safety net of last resort for those most susceptible to falling through the cracks. Vulnerable children at risk of neglect or abuse, older people who can’t afford care, adults with disabilities, the homeless: all rely on local, rather than central, government for support. When councils fail in their responsibilities, the consequences can be horrific. Who can forget Baby P, the toddler who, among other injuries, suffered a broken back, a fractured shinbone and a ripped ear before he died at the hands of his carers in 2007? Or Victoria Climbié, subject to months of torture then murder in 2000?The Observer is the world's oldest Sunday newspaper, founded in 1791. It is published by Guardian News & Media and is editorially independent.
Tax relief on pensions serves to enrich the wealthy. That must change | Phillip Inman
Chancellors have fought shy of reforming a system in which higher-rate taxpayers benefit most. But £10bn could be savedPensions tax relief is a juicy morsel for the chancellor should he find a way to make it benefit the exchequer. Even a small slice of the £38bn spent each year subsidising pension saving could help thousands of schools and hundreds of hospitals that would otherwise be starved of cash.A £10bn saving is not outside the bounds of possibility, and that is without even shaking the system to its foundations. All Philip Hammond needs to do in his autumn budget is take away the tax relief top-up offered to higher-rate taxpayers and the £10bn a year can be his.Tax reliefs share the same​ thinking, which is that people won’t do the right thing without a ​​huge bung from the state Continue reading...
Who are the British business leaders still backing Brexit?
After Aston Martin declared its bullish post-EU intentions last week, here are some other captains of industry who are sanguine about the futureThe majority of big British business leaders are worried about the potential fallout from a no-deal Brexit. But amid the warnings over jobs losses, withheld investments, weaker economic growth and political unrest, some captains of industry are more sanguine.Last week, Aston Martin shrugged off concerns over Brexit damaging the British car industry and announced its flotation plans, while household appliance maker Dyson has earmarked a £200m expansion of its research campus to test electric cars, with enough space for 2,000 people. Here are some of the British business figures who believe Brexit will not be negative for the economy. Continue reading...
Argentina raises interest rates to 60% to shore up peso
Turkish lira falls 4% against US dollar as concerns grow of crises in emerging marketsArgentina has hiked interest rates to 60% as it takes dramatic steps to restore confidence in its plunging currency,in the latest sign of turmoil among emerging market economies this year.The Argentine central bank raised the cost of borrowing by 15 percentage points on Thursday in an attempt to shore up the peso, which has plummeted in value. The central bank said it would keep rates unchanged at 60% until at least December.Related: Emerging markets: who's taking the biggest hits and why? Continue reading...
Markets are all about the timing – and Argentina got clocked
Mauricio Macri gambled on IMF rescue package shoring up currency – but dealers saw it as a sign of weaknessTiming is everything in financial markets. And Argentina’s embattled president, Mauricio Macri, just got it spectacularly wrong.Late on Wednesday, it emerged that Macri had asked the International Monetary Fund to speed up the disbursement of its $50bn (£38bn) rescue package for South America’s second biggest economy. Coming at the end of a day that had seen the peso fall heavily against the US dollar, the announcement was intended to shore up confidence.What is the IMF?Related: Argentina raises interest rates to 60% to shore up peso Continue reading...
Nafta: what is it and why is Trump trying to renegotiate?
Free trade deal between US, Mexico and Canada has proved contentious since its launchThe North American Free Trade Agreement between the US, Mexico and Canada has bound the economies of the two countries together for more than 20 years, enabling the free flow of goods. Continue reading...
The European left’s struggle to advance progressive reforms | Letters
Michael Holmes and Geoff Naylor respond to a Guardian article by Larry ElliottLarry Elliott is right to say that “the left had its chance and blew it” after the economic crash, and right to identify the left’s lack of a clear and united narrative as one of the main reasons for this (Opinion, 30 August). Instead, the different strands of the left “all headed off in their own directions”, as Elliott says. It is worth exploring this in a little more detail and picking out two key problems.One of the biggest obstacles to developing a common left framework was the fact that during the crisis, social democratic parties throughout Europe kept on going into right-led coalitions which were implementing cuts and austerity programmes. The subsequent collapses of the social democratic parties in Ireland, the Netherlands, France, Germany and other countries all bear witness to this. Continue reading...
Nafta betrayal points to bleak future for US-Canada relationship
Canadians feel stabbed in the back by Mexico after it agreed a separate trade deal with TrumpIt is a threat that has loomed since Donald Trump took power, bursting into view each time the US president attacks Canada’s trade policies. But this week Canadians have been forced to confront the possibility of a breakdown in trade relations with their closest ally and biggest trading partner, after the US president announced a preliminary deal with Mexico.The news left Canadians reeling and sent the country’s foreign minister rushing to Washington DC in the hope of salvaging the decades-old North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta) – a three-way deal between the US, Canada and Mexico. The stakes for Canada are sky-high; the country sends three quarters of its exports south of the border while roughly 2.5m Canadian jobs depend on US trade.There are no poison pills left — only bitter ones for Canada to swallowRelated: Nafta: what is it and why is Trump trying to renegotiate? Continue reading...
Was the financial crisis wasted? | Howard Davies
While regulation has been strengthened since the crisis, its implementation remains patchyAs the 10th anniversary of the start of the global financial crisis approaches, a wave of retrospective reviews is bearing down on us. Many of them will try to answer the big question: has the financial system been fundamentally reformed, so that we can be confident of preventing a repeat of the dismal and destructive events of 2008-09, or has the crisis been allowed to go to waste?There will be no consensus answer to that question. Some will argue that the post-crisis reforms, especially those concerning banks’ capital requirements, have gone too far, and that the costs in terms of output have been too high. Others will argue that far more must be done, that banks need far higher capital, and possibly, as the proponents of a recent Swiss referendum argued, that banks should lose their ability to create money.Related: Weak economic recovery was down to flawed policies, not secular stagnation | Joseph Stiglitz Continue reading...
Demonetisation drive that cost India 1.5m jobs fails to uncover 'black money'
Costly banknote recall did not flush out untaxed wealth, as PM Narendra Modi had promisedMore than 99% of the currency that India declared void in a surprise announcement in 2016 was returned to the country’s banks in subsequent weeks, according to a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) report.The figures suggest prime minister Narendra Modi’s demonetisation policy, which likely wiped at least 1% from the country’s GDP and cost at least 1.5m jobs, failed to wipe significant hordes of unaccounted wealth from the Indian economy — a key rationale for the move.Related: India's banknote ban: how Modi botched the policy yet kept his political capitalRelated: India's small businesses facing 'apocalypse' amid biggest financial experiment in historyRelated: India's slowing growth blamed on 'big mistake' of demonetisation Continue reading...
Car manufacturing in Britain fell by 11% in July, reports SMMT
Trade body calls for ‘political and economic clarity’ after sharp reduction in UK demandThe number of cars built in UK factories slumped by 11% last month compared with a year ago.Just over 121,000 cars left production lines, with a fall of 35% in models built for the UK, according to the latest figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). Car production for export in July fell by 4.2%.Related: Aston Martin unveils London Stock Exchange flotation Continue reading...
Ten years after the financial crash, the timid left should be full of regrets | Larry Elliott
Capitalism’s near-death experience with the banking crisis was a golden opportunity for progressives. But they blew itPlacards are being prepared. Photo-opportunities are being organised. A list of demands is being drawn up by a coalition of pressure groups, unions and NGOs. Yes, preparations are well under way for protests to mark next month’s 10th anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers – the pivotal moment in the global financial crisis.Make no mistake, the fact that events will take place in all the world’s financial centres is no cause for celebration. On the contrary, it is a sign of failure. The banks were never broken up. Plans for a financial transactions tax are gathering dust. Politicians toyed with the idea of a green new deal and then promptly forgot about it. There never was a huge swing of the pendulum away from the prevailing orthodoxy, just a brief nudge that was quickly reversed. The brutal fact is that the left had its chance, and it blew it.Related: Labour condemns 'sickening' Lehman Brothers reunion partyThe process of challenging business as usual lacked a unifying analysis of what had caused the crisisRelated: The Lehman Brothers party is a red herring – it’s the system that stinks | Stefan Stern Continue reading...
Argentina seeks emergency release of $50bn in IMF funds amid financial crisis
President Mauricio Macri says ‘lack of trust from the markets’ forces him to ask for help as peso weakens and inflation runs at 30%Argentina’s President Mauricio Macri has asked the International Monetary Fund for an early release of funds from a $50bn deal to ease concerns that the country will not be able to meet its debt obligations for 2019.Macri said in a televised address that Argentina had agreed with the IMF “to advance all necessary funds to guarantee compliance with next year’s financial programme”.Related: Are debt crises in Argentina and Turkey a global warning sign?Related: Argentina agrees to $50bn loan from IMF amid national protests Continue reading...
Supporters of a London house price crash are missing the bigger picture | Phillip Inman
The UK’s economic future requires more than one city to boast full gamut of jobs. That takes planningThe warning that property values in London will fall this year and next will bring a smile to many who believe house prices have run out of control in the last 30 years.The added warning of a possible full-blown crash in the capital if Britain leaves the European Union without striking a deal will only turn the smile into a beaming grin. For some it is enough to persuade them that a no-deal Brexit is the best thing that could happen to the country.Related: Aston Martin races to become player as global luxury brand Continue reading...
UK's wealth rises as land values soar by £450bn in a year
Land now 51% of UK’s net worth – a huge transfer of wealth to landowners, say campaignersA dramatic rise in land values pushed Britain’s wealth to a fresh high of more than £10tn last year, highlighting the huge gains made by developers in property hotspots across the UK.From London and the home counties to Cambridge and popular parts of Devon and Cornwall, land values have become the single largest element of wealth, dwarfing household wealth locked up in property and financial savings. Continue reading...
US consumer confidence surges in August to 18-year high
The US economy also recorded its strongest economic growth since 2014, according to revised second quarter figuresThe US economy recorded its strongest economic growth in nearly four years in the three months to the end of June, according to revised figures.Gross domestic product increased at a 4.2% annualized rate, the commerce department said on Wednesday after revising its second-quarter calculations, establishing the quarter as the strongest in terms of growth since late 2014. Many economists had forecast a downward revision of growth to about 4%.Related: How a Wall Street bull run that smashed all the records evolved Continue reading...
Weak economic recovery was down to flawed policies, not secular stagnation | Joseph Stiglitz
Lesson to be learned from 2008 financial crisis is that the challenge was – and is - politicalIn the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, some economists argued that the US, and perhaps the global economy, was suffering from “secular stagnation” – an idea first conceived in the aftermath of the Great Depression. Economies had always recovered from downturns, but the Great Depression had lasted an unprecedented length of time. Many believed the economy recovered only because of government spending on the second world war and many feared that with the end of the war, the economy would return to its doldrums.Something, it was believed, had happened, such that even with low or zero interest rates, the economy would languish. For reasons now well understood, these dire predictions fortunately turned out to be wrong.Related: US will lack fiscal space to respond when next recession comesPolicymakers failed to do enough even to prevent poor households from losing their homes Continue reading...
US economy grows more strongly than expected in second quarter - as it happened
Markets remain edgy despite strong US economic growth and trade deal with Mexico2.07pm BSTUS economic growth was slightly stronger than expected in the second quarter, coming in at 4.2% rather than 4%. Meanwhile the hope that Canada will join the new trade agreement between the US and Mexico is giving some support to stock markets, although concerns about Italy’s financial position and worries about Spanish banks’ exposure to Turkey are limiting the gains in Europe.2.02pm BSTA quick view from ING strategist Viraj Patel:So $EURUSD barely moves a pip after the 2Q US GDP release (which was revised up to 4.2%). This is not a market driven by economics... it's all politics #SummerLull #backtoschool (next week) pic.twitter.com/neWH9AEA4r1.53pm BSTOverall strong US #GDP report with relatively modest revisions to Q2 estimates:
UK shop prices rise for the first time in more than five years
Spell of unusually cold winter weather followed by heatwave pushes up cost of fruit and vegBritain’s shop prices have risen for the first time in more than five years as the heatwave pushed up the cost of fruit and vegetables.The latest BRC-Nielsen figures show that overall shop prices rose 0.1% in August, entering inflationary territory for the first time since April 2013. Continue reading...
Forget profit. It’s love and fun that drive innovation like Parkrun | Aditya Chakrabortty
The weekly 5km runs are a global phenomenon. But they were born out of a desire to change lives without charging for itEvery Saturday morning at 9am sharp a little bit of anarchy breaks out across the country. This being Britain, it happens, naturally enough, in our parks. Not that it’s billed as such. It’s meant to be a 5km run, which is why at Richmond Park in south-west London this morning the grass is carpeted with well over 400 people in sports gear. But it has none of the intensity you’d expect at a track or even on a gym treadmill. One woman tugs balloons, to celebrate her 100th run; others prepare to push baby buggies or keep pace with their dogs. Although supported by the charity Parkrun, this and the 559 other events across the UK set to start in a few minutes are entirely self-organised.What they share is an ethos. Parkruns are free to all, and all are treated equally. No hierarchy intrudes between the hares and the tortoises, the old-timers and the debs. Members volunteer to mark the course or keep time or to aid stragglers. So early this morning, as the weekend still brims with promise, on these hectares of parkland owned by the Queen, a little anarchist world briefly comes into focus. One devoid of government nagging or corporate profiteering, but reliant instead on mutual aid and human kindness.Related: How one community beat the system, and rebuilt their shattered streets | Aditya ChakraborttyRelated: Parkrun makes us fitter, but can it make us happier as well?Related: Meet Britain’s Willy Wonkas: the ideas factory that could save UK industry | Aditya Chakrabortty Continue reading...
Markets welcome Trump's new US-Mexico trade deal - as it happened
Agreement eases uncertainty but president threatens tariffs on Canada if it does not sign up
US will lack fiscal space to respond when next recession comes
The economy is doing well but the US is in a weak position to manage the inevitable shockThe US economy is doing well. But the next recession – and there is always another recession – could be very bad.
Talk of no-deal Brexit dampens economy – experts debate data
Two former members of Bank of England’s rate-setting committee give views on UK growth
How has Brexit vote affected UK economy? August verdict
Each month we look at key indicators to see what effect the Brexit process has on growth, prosperity and trade
Brexit economy: turning up the heat on household finances
The latest monthly Guardian analysis finds the UK economy failing to deliver on wage growth
Risk of no-deal Brexit grows every day, says German industry chief
Senior business leader says effects would be much more serious than UK admitsMany businesses in Germany are still hoping the UK reverses its decision to leave the EU, according to one of the country’s top business leaders, who also warned of the dangers of a no-deal Brexit.“The risk of a hard [no-deal] Brexit is growing by the day,” said Joachim Lang, the head of the Federation of German Industries (BDI), in a wide-ranging interview with the Rheinische Post newspaper. “Every business would do well to prepare for this worst-case scenario.”
Britons seem relatively relaxed in the face of Brexit apocalypse | Larry Elliott
Despite predictions of gloom from the Treasury and Bank, the public remains optimisticBefore heading off for his summer break Mark Carney said the risks of a no-deal Brexit were uncomfortably high. Last week Philip Hammond warned the Treasury would take an £80bn hit if negotiations between Britain and the EU failed completely.There is a risk to this latest manifestation of Project Fear. If the public really thinks that in eight months’ time Britain is going to be plunged into the economic equivalent of a nuclear winter, the economy will take a serious hit. Continue reading...
The mood on Brexit is turning. Labour can turn too
As former Leave-voting constituencies start to waver, the party is now free to act in Britain’s interest and oppose this Tory follyThere is a time-honoured expression for offering something that is not needed: “that’s like taking coals to Newcastle” – the north-east of England, of course, for most of the 20th century having been a centre of working coal mines. More recently, however, the coalfields were so run down that, before the carbon tax was introduced in 2013, we were importing coal from Russia and South America for power stations not that far from Newcastle.The miners were very important in Labour party history. When, in the early postwar years, the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) was being formed, the possibility of our joining was peremptorily dismissed by Herbert Morrison, foreign secretary in the Attlee government, with the words “the Durham miners won’t wear it”.Perceptions of the damage that the mere prospect of Brexit is now inflicting appear to be strengthening Continue reading...
Trump says impeachment could hurt the boom. But he’s hurting it already
The president’s remarks overlook the fact that his tax cuts and protectionism destabilise the very bull market he boasts aboutImpeach me and the stock market gets it. There were unmistakable echoes of a mob boss in a gangster movie when Donald Trump insisted that any such action against him would bring an abrupt end to what is now the longest bull market in history.It is a sign of a backs-to-the-wall mentality at the White House that Trump felt the need to lash out in this way. Presidents usually go out of their way to avoid saying anything that might give Wall Street cause for concern. Not this one. The market would crash, Trump said. Everyone would be very poor. Continue reading...
Fed chairman defends rate rise policy after attack by Trump
Jerome Powell says central bank will ‘do whatever it takes’ to maintain strong economyThe Federal Reserve chairman has defended the central bank’s approach of gradually raising interest rates, after direct criticism from Donald Trump.Jerome Powell, who was this week attacked by the president for failing to give him “some help” on the US economy, warned that steadily rising borrowing costs would be required to promote job creation and economic growth. Trump had suggested that a change of course would be better for the country. Continue reading...
Markets wary as US-China trade talks end without breakthrough - as it happened
Trade row between world’s two biggest economies rumbles on; US central bankers defend Federal Reserve’s independence after Trump criticisms2.05pm BSTMarkets continue to drift as the concerns about the US-China trade rift continue, along with uncertainty about how the problems facing Donald Trump will play out.The FTSE 100 is currently up just 0.17%, Germany’s Dax is up a similar amount while France’s Cac has climbed 0.37%.1.52pm BSTUS durable goods #orders fell 1.7% in July & shipments -0.2%, but weakness due to weak aircraft component.
Saudi modernisation drive reflected in Aramco's faltering sale | Larry Elliott
The oil-rich nation is aware of an urgent need to diversify, but it still has a long way to goOn 2 March 1938, Saudi Arabia was a largely nomadic society with a sideline in the tourism generated by pilgrimages to Mecca. The following day, oil was discovered at Dharam and the country’s prospects were transformed for ever.It took time for the full extent of Saudi Arabia’s crude reserves to become known, not least because in early 1938 the world had other things on its mind. But by the time the second world war was over, it was clear that beneath the desert sands there was an abundance of oil that could be easily brought out of the ground. Cheap Saudi oil was a vital component of the world economy’s long post-war boom and the revenues from petroleum exports paid for roads, bridges, apartment blocks and western-style living standards.Related: Oil giant Aramco's $2tn flotation is still on, says Saudi Arabia Continue reading...
Markets nervous amid new US-China tariffs and Trump's troubles - as it happened
China retaliates as US imposes 25% taxes on another $16bn worth of imports
Britain can’t wait any longer for a post-Brexit immigration policy | Adam Marshall
The number of EU workers coming to the UK is falling. The delay in publishing a white paper is damaging the economy
US and China escalate trade war as total sum levied reaches $100bn
Countries implement 25% tariffs on $16bn worth of imports on both sides in new salvoThe US and China have escalated their ongoing trade war by implementing 25% tariffs on $16bn worth of imports on both sides, bringing the amount levied to a combined $100bn (£78bn) since July.Beijing began implementing the new tariffs on Thursday, when the US said it would begin collecting extra duties in retaliation for what it claimed were unfair Chinese trade practices.Related: Markets nervous amid new US-China tariffs and Trump's troubles - business live Continue reading...
How Turkey’s lira crisis was written in Istanbul's skyline
Those observing Istanbul’s construction boom will not have been surprised by last week’s currency collapse – it’s all based on debtFrom a distance, Esenyurt, a newly built up neighbourhood on the edges of Istanbul, looks a bit like Hong Kong or Dubai, with a bustling downtown of shiny skyscrapers. Upon closer examination, however, you notice that tower after tower stands incomplete, lacking windows or furnishings; others are only half-occupied, their windows dark after nightfall.“In the residential areas, 100% of the construction has stopped,” says Mohamed Karman, a local estate agent, from his small office in the central square of Esenyurt. “Do you know why? The materials. Everything is in dollars, you pay in dollars.”Unless [Turkey] exports from time to time, they run into a crisis. It happens every 10 years.We don’t act on a long-term basis. The longest plan I saw in a Turkish company was two monthsRelated: Feel the earth move: images of Istanbul bend time and space Continue reading...
Wall Street sets record for longest bull run in history
Key S&P 500 index passes landmark as it goes 3,453 days without major correctionUS stock markets passed another landmark on Wednesday as the S&P 500 recorded its longest rally ever, capping a near decade-long Wall Street boom that has gathered pace over the course of this year.The S&P 500 share index, tracking the 500 biggest public companies in America, closed trading on Wednesday having gone 3,453 days – nearly nine and a half years – without a fall of 20% or more, which is the measure used by some analysts for handing it the status as the longest bull market in US history. Continue reading...
How a Wall Street bull run that smashed all the records evolved
Four key factors that shaped nearly a decade of constantly rising US share pricesThe S&P 500 share index is due to break the record for the longest bull market in US stock market history on Wednesday.
Scotland's public finances limit its independence options | Larry Elliott
Talk of a fiscal black hole is political hot air but going it alone suddenly looks less attractiveIt is getting on for four years since Scotland voted to remain part of the UK and talk of a second referendum has gone a bit quiet. The latest figures outlining the state of the country’s public finances help explain why.Scotland’s budget deficit – even including a share of revenues from the North Sea – remains high and, at almost 8% of gross domestic product, is four times as big as that for the UK as a whole. Continue reading...
Scotland cuts its deficit, but is still outspending the UK
Latest data shows gap between income and spending is four times as much as UK as a wholeScotland ran a narrower deficit last year as a stronger performance from the oil industry boosted revenues, but the gap between government spending and income was nearly four times higher than the UK as a whole.The latest Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (Gers) data for Scotland shows that for 2017-18 overall state spending hit £73.4bn compared to tax income of just under £60bn, including oil revenues. That left a deficit for the year of £13.4bn, compared with £13.5bn the year before. Scotland’s deficit was equivalent to 7.9% of GDP, while for the UK as a whole it was 1.9%.Related: Scotland's public finances limit its independence options | Larry ElliottRelated: Sturgeon likely to delay decision on second independence vote Continue reading...
European markets cautious despite new Wall Street record - as it happened
S&P 500 hits new peak ahead of US-China trade talks2.05pm BSTHere is our story on the record breaking bull market run in the US:Related: Wall Street poised to set record for longest rally in history1.48pm BSTWith dollar weakness continuing, even the pound is benefiting. Sterling is now up 0.2% at $1.2925 after its earlier dip.1.46pm BSTThe depth of the financial crisis is one reason why the recovery has been record breaking for markets, suggests Will Hobbs, Head of Investment Strategy at Barclays Smart Investor:
The Lehman Brothers party is a red herring – it’s the system that stinks | Stefan Stern
While some begrudge a work reunion, the bankers’ model remains the same: picking up pennies in front of a steamrollerWill it be slippery nipples all round? Harvey Wallbangers, maybe, or possibly even a nice Banker’s Lunch (vodka, vermouth, orange liqueur and grapefruit juice). Whatever is on the drinks menu, next month’s 10-year reunion of former Lehman Brothers employees should be quite a night.On 15 September 2008, in the memorable image from the film The Big Short, the fatal Jenga brick of destiny slipped out of place and the whole global financial tower teetered on the edge of collapse. Lehman Brothers was finished, and the rest of us very nearly were too.Buy-backs starve firms of useful investment. If you want to know why productivity and pay remain so low, look hereRelated: In another financial crisis we would have far less wiggle room | Larry Elliott Continue reading...
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