Rise in interest rates unlikely, with CPI down to 2% in May from 2.1% in AprilA fall in transport costs and cheaper clothing brought to an end the recent rise in inflation that threatened to push the Bank of England to increase interest rates.Energy costs, which spiked in April, and a price war in the car industry following a slump in sales over the past year also helped to bring down the consumer prices index (CPI) from 2.1% in April to 2% in May. Transport costs fell by 3.8% overall between April and May this year, led by falling air fares. Continue reading...

Number in poverty rises to 8m, with 60% living in households where someone worksBritain has seen a big jump in the working poor since the 1990s, with almost three out of five people below the official poverty line living in a household where at least one person is working.The Institute for Fiscal Studies found that a drop in the number of workless households, better-off pensioners and higher rents had resulted in 8 million in poverty from working households.The main poverty indicator used in the Joseph Rowntree Foundation's study is the number of households that have income levels of less than 60% of median income. Using the same measure, the UK was ranked 22nd out of 35 in an international league table of child poverty rates in rich nations put together by Unicef in 2012. Continue reading...

Might the Guardian commit to giving statistics like these as much coverage as it does to the GDP, asks Paul Allin, while Dr Nicholas Falk argues that our governments need to change the way investment decisions are madePeter Wrigley and other correspondents (Letters, 14 June) are looking for measures of success that are wider than GDP or the Office for National Statistics (ONS) measures of personal wellbeing. The ONS already publishes a dashboard of 43 objective and subjective measures of national wellbeing, chosen to reflect the things that matter to people. This is currently showing a long-term improvement in only two in every three of the things measured. International comparisons across a broad range of topics are also available, notably in the OECD How’s Life? report and website.It’s just a thought, but might the Guardian commit to giving statistics like these as much coverage as it does to the GDP and other macro-economic releases? That might help in building a more complete picture of the complexities of how the economy, society and the environment are interconnected. Continue reading...

After the failure to recruit a ‘disability champion’ for the fashion industry, activists argue that more should be done to earn the ‘purple pound’In December, on International Day of Persons with Disabilities, the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) announced that the government was recruiting six “disability champions” to help “tackle the issues disabled people face as consumers”.One of these positions was reserved for a fashion disability champion who would, the DWP claimed, “open industry doors”. Five new champions were appointed on schedule; in the fields of brand and design; countryside and heritage; products and spaces; technology; and web accessibility. The champion for the fashion industry was absent. Continue reading...

The US President says Draghi’s plans will weaken the euro putting the US at a competitive disadvantage

US president’s comments come after Mario Draghi said it could act to loosen monetary policyDonald Trump has accused the European Central Bank of unfairly manipulating the euro, further raising the stakes for Washington in its trade and diplomatic disputes around the world.The US president suggested in a tweet that comments by Mario Draghi, the head of the ECB, had triggered an immediate slide in the value of the euro versus the dollar, “making it unfairly easier for them to compete against the USA”.Mario Draghi just announced more stimulus could come, which immediately dropped the Euro against the Dollar, making it unfairly easier for them to compete against the USA. They have been getting away with this for years, along with China and others.Related: Donald Trump slams Mario Draghi's rate cut plans - business live Continue reading...

The chancellor says the UK’s open trading economy needs inward investmentBritain is aware of the risks facing sensitive areas of the economy from greater levels of Chinese investment, Philip Hammond has said, as London forges closer economic ties with Beijing despite US concerns.Speaking after a joint economic summit between Britain and China in London that is set to open up deals for companies in the two countries worth more than £500m, the chancellor said he welcomed the closer cooperation. Continue reading...

Business group downgrades GDP rises and warns dwindling investment will hurt long-term economyEconomic growth in Britain is expected to slow to the lowest levels since the financial crisis as firms run down Brexit stockpiles, according to a leading business lobby group.After a stockpiling rush this year that pumped up the rate of economic growth, the British Chambers of Commerce said growth would slow in 2020 and 2021.Gross domestic product (GDP) is a key government statistic and provides a measure of the UK's total economic activity. Continue reading...

Governor Mark Carney should use his Mansion House speech to tell the Square Mile it must stay on a short leashWhen the Bank of England’s governor, Mark Carney, addresses City grandees this Thursday at Mansion House in London, he could step outside his usual comfort zone and make his thoughts on Donald Trump’s trade wars and their dampening effect on global growth more explicit.Closer to home, he could document the impact of Brexit and the danger from a Conservative party that insists on pressing ahead with it, even if that means leaving without an agreement.Since 2016, the Square Mile has grown more self-satisfied by the day as reports of banks fleeing prove to be exaggerated Continue reading...

Trump’s hawkish stance with Iran could prove too much for an already fragile world economyAn oil price surge prompted by trouble in the Middle East inevitably conjures up memories of late 1973, when a dramatic rise in the cost of crude ended the long postwar global economic boom.No question, the embargo organised by Opec during the Yom Kippur war was a game changer. The west had got used to oil prices of around $2 a barrel; within weeks it was paying $11 a barrel. Inflation soared, growth slowed, unemployment hit levels not seen since the 1930s.Related: What impact could oil tanker attacks have on global economy?(May 5, 2019)Related: The growing risk of a 2020 recession and crisis | Nouriel Roubini Continue reading...

As investment nears collapse, the last thing Britain needs is a PM so contemptuous of business and so fiscally heedlessI have been critical, I hope with good reason, of Jeremy Corbyn’s equivocation over what is rapidly becoming a pressing need to call another referendum. But credit where credit is due: at least the Labour leader attempted in the Commons last week to block the possibility of a no-deal Brexit – alas, without success.In common with this year’s Reith lecturer, Lord Sumption, I do not like referendums, and believe in representative democracy. Moreover, in keeping with Edmund Burke’s address to the electors of Bristol some 250 years ago, I think MPs should regard themselves as representatives, not delegates. Unfortunately, in last week’s vote, eight Labour MPs behaved as delegates of Leave constituencies and voted with the Gadarene rush of Conservative Brexiters.What comparisons with the past bring to the surface is the sheer mediocrity of most of the present contenders Continue reading...

Extra property wealth rises 50% but numbers of young families owning homes halves in 20 yearsProperty wealth in Britain from second homes has risen by more than 50% over the past two decades to reach nearly £1tn, according to a report that indicates growing inequality across the UK.Total property wealth for UK residents from second homes, buy-to-let investments and overseas property has risen in value from around £610bn in 2001 to £941bn. Continue reading...

The China-US trade war could derail the world economy but central banks lack tools to fight any crisisLast summer, my colleague Brunello Rosa and I identified 10 potential downside risks that could trigger a US and global recession in 2020. Nine of them are still in play today.Many involve the United States. Trade wars with China and other countries, along with restrictions on migration, foreign direct investment, and technology transfers, could have profound implications for global supply chains, raising the threat of stagflation (slowing growth alongside rising inflation). And the risk of a US growth slowdown has become more acute now that the stimulus from the 2017 tax legislation has run its course.Related: The US economic recovery is far from being a world record | Jeffrey Frankel Continue reading...

Shift in stance comes as more countries raise concerns about inequality – Christine LagardeThe International Monetary Fund is urging countries to protect spending on health, education and vulnerable groups amid growing concern among its members about excessive levels of inequality, its managing director has said.Announcing the change of approach in an interview with the Guardian, Christine Lagarde said it was now politically incorrect to argue against the impact of social spending on growth and stability. Continue reading...

The economic arguments adopted by Britain and the US in the 1980s led to vastly increased inequality – and gave the false impression that this outcome was not only inevitable, but good• Read the text version here Continue reading...

It uses different rules to other countries to measure business cycles and recessionsThis month marks the tenth full year of the US economic recovery that began in June 2009. Back then, a “trough” in business activity signified the end of the Great Recession that followed the 2007-8 global financial crisis. The current expansion has continued, uninterrupted, ever since.The best explanation for the length of this recovery is disappointingly simple: the Great Recession was the United States’ worst downturn since the 1930s. The deeper the hole, the longer it takes to climb out. Yet the prolonged US expansion also highlights some important issues regarding how countries measure business cycles and economic slumps.Related: The unusual US economic recovery is now its longestA 2011-12 recession in the UK was subsequently erased from the record when the GDP numbers were revised in June 2013 Continue reading...

The preaching of finance experts may be tiresome, but perhaps we should take another look at our constant consumptionI get notifications on my phone whenever I use my bank card and this week, while undertaking a mini-audit, I noted that I was doing something that apparently leads to financial ruin. The other morning, in a bakery on Broadway, I spent $8.70 on non-essential pastries. A few hours later, in spite of the loaf of bread in my house, I threw down $8.25 at Pick A Bagel. And scattered throughout the day, like small distress flares sent up from my current account, was a notification trail of $3.77 coffees.Suze Orman, a personal finance expert with her own show on CNBC, said something in March that resurfaced this week and made everyone instantly furious. “You spend $1 to $3 on a cup of coffee,” she said, “which is approximately $100 a month … $100 a month in a Roth IRA [retirement account] over 40 years is $1m. So you need to think about it as you are peeing $1m down the drain as you are drinking that coffee.” It’s an escalation of the avocado toast debacle of 2017, but now they’re coming for your coffee.Related: Can you really save for a deposit by ditching coffee and avocado toast? I tried to find out​ Continue reading...

Lawrence Lockhart, John Airs, Peter Wrigley and Jeremy Cushing respond to an article by Dan ButtonAs an economist I endorse Dan Button’s article (Stop obsessing about GDP: we should focus on wellbeing, 11 June). The most we can say is that a succession of GDP figures over months should indicate whether the economy is growing or moving into recession. Also aggregate GDP statistics tell us nothing about how national wealth and income are distributed: globalisation in recent decades has increased the size of the cake, but the main beneficiaries have been the already better-off.To extract meaning from GDP trends we have to break it into its components: consumption, investment, government spending, the trade balance. Consumption is by far the largest of these, and the main driver of the economy, but its level is precariously underpinned by unsecured private debt. It is broadly accepted that real investment (in new productive capacity) is dismally inadequate for the continued growth of a modern economy; much of what does take place goes into buying paper assets. Continue reading...

Childcare organisations urge the government to address the early years funding shortfallDozens of MPs will be visiting childcare providers in their constituency on Friday as part of a week of action where providers and parents have called on the government to address the early years funding shortfall, which is now over two-thirds of a billion pounds.MPs will see a sector close to breaking point. The number of childcare providers fell by almost 10,000 in the last two years. Around half of all “free” childcare places come with voluntary charges, while many providers have been forced to choose between higher parent fees or closing their doors – a situation that hits disabled children and poorer families hardest. Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as tanker fires send crude prices soaring

Watchdog will take no action despite evidence of business customers being mistreated after 2008 crashA report by the City watchdog into the scandal at Royal Bank of Scotland’s turnaround unit has been described as a whitewash after the regulator confirmed it would not punish the bank for mistreating business customers following the financial crash.The Financial Conduct Authority’s final report into RBS’s now-defunct Global Restructuring Group (GRG) said it would take no action against the lender or senior staff despite evidence of “systemic and widespread” mistreatment of small- and medium-sized business customers between 2008 and 2013.Related: We do not know who is to blame for GRG debacle or if FCA could stop a repeat | Nils PratleyRelated: FCA proves to be a paper tiger in case of RBS mistreatmentRelated: RBS executives deny wrecking small businesses to make a profit Continue reading...

Strait of Hormuz incidents underline threat hanging over busy shipping lane

Art Laffer, ‘godfather’ of supply-side economic theory, is going to be awarded a presidential medal. He doesn’t deserve itNext Wednesday, Donald Trump will award the Presidential Medal of Freedom to the arch-conservative economist Art Laffer.Sadly, Laffer’s career has been heavy on punditry, light in academic rigor, and absolutely destructive for the average American and the long-term health and sustainability of our economy.Morris Pearl is chair of Patriotic Millionaires, which focuses on promoting public policy solutions that encourage political equality, guarantee a sustaining wage for working Americans, and ensure that wealthy individuals and corporations pay their fair share of taxes. He previously was a managing director at BlackRock, one of the world’s largest investment firms. Continue reading...

Banknotes of 10,000, 20,000 and 50,000 bolívar denominations will begin circulating on Thursday, the central bank saidVenezuela is releasing new banknotes for the second time in less than a year, the central bank said on Wednesday, after hyperinflation eroded the effects of an August 2018 monetary overhaul meant to improve availability of cash.Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro, last year cut five zeroes off the currency and prices. The move was supposed to ease shortages of cash that pushed most of the economy toward debit and credit card operations and put heavy strain on digital commerce platforms.Related: Barter and dollars the new reality as Venezuela battles hyperinflation Continue reading...

Beneath the low unemployment figures and long-awaited wage growth lie risks that can’t be ignoredData released over the next few months will show that the current US economic expansion is the longest on record. But while the US continues to outperform other advanced economies, this success has yet to dispel many Americans’ persistent sense of economic insecurity and frustration; nor does it alleviate concerns about the lack of policy space to respond to the next economic downturn or financial shock.The current expansion began in mid-2009, following the 2008 financial crisis and the “Great Recession”. Powered initially by exceptional fiscal interventions and previously unthinkable monetary policies, the economy built enough of a foundation for private sector confidence to return, and for corporate balance sheets to recover. Coupled with accelerating advances in new technologies, the expansion came to be led in large part by technology and platform companies presiding over the new “gig economy”. It was given further impetus by pro-growth measures, including deregulation and tax cuts.Related: Critics of quantitative easing should consider the alternative | Barry Eichengreen Continue reading...

Exploitation is a feature of capitalism, not a bug. Our economic system is beyond salvage

Populist prophets of doom are wrong. The capitalist system is working for Americans

Living Wage Foundation research shows families struggling to make ends meetMore than 5 million workers across Britain are in low-paid and insecure work, leaving families struggling to make ends meet, according to a campaign calling for more firms to offer guaranteed hours to their staff.According to research published by the Living Wage Foundation, workers in Wales, the north-east and West Midlands experience the highest rates of low-paid insecure work in the country.Related: The Guardian view on working hours: when more means less Continue reading...

Increases expected despite global slowdown, say three members of policy committeeThree members of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee have warned the UK remains on track to raise interest rates several times over the next couple of years, despite a global slowdown in trade and the likelihood of falling interest rates in the US.The deputy governor, Ben Broadbent, said the Bank’s health check on the UK economy in early May showed it warranted higher interest rates than financial markets currently expect. Continue reading...

Rolling economic and financial news, including new UK unemployment figures and the latest trade war action

Rise of 32,000 in three months to April was weakest since AugustJobs growth in the British economy has cooled after months of employers appearing to shrug off Brexit concerns.Employment in Britain increased by 32,000 to reach a record high of 32.75 million in the three months to April, according to the Office for National Statistics, fuelled by a rise in the numbers of self-employed people and women entering the workforce. Continue reading...

Political interference with fiscal policy is likelier if central banks shun QE in the next recession

Britain’s economy shrank by 0.4% in April as car factories shut down in case of a hard Brexit, and stockpiling boost faded

New Zealand has begun measuring national growth in a more nuanced way. Britain should follow its leadThis morning, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released the latest set of GDP figures. It is a familiar exercise common to most countries: a day when the broad state of an economy is judged according to small changes in a single indicator.Related: GDP is not a good measure of wellbeing – it's too materialistic | Joseph StiglitzRelated: Wellbeing should replace growth as 'main aim of UK spending' Continue reading...

Vehicle output falls by 24% as firms including BMW and Peugeot pause productionThe British economy shrank in April amid a dramatic decline in car production ahead of the original Brexit deadline, according to official figures.According to the Office for National Statistics, gross domestic product (GDP) plunged by 0.4% in April from a month earlier as factories across the country launched a wave of planned shutdowns to avoid any disruption that could have been unleashed by a no-deal Brexit. Continue reading...

Two reports about the circumstances surrounding the murders of two children in Northamptonshire beg as many questions as they answerParents are not the only ones responsible for their children. Our social responsibility is at its greatest when parents are unable to protect their families – or, worse, are the threat. The murders of two young children in Northamptonshire, within five months of each other, is a brutal reminder that those duties are not always met. In both cases, according to the serious case reviews, children’s social care and services including health and police failed to act on risks that were known to them.The primary question is what is being done to ensure that such catastrophic errors are not repeated. A related one is who will take responsibility for what happened in December 2017, when two-year-old Dylan Tiffin-Brown died of heart failure after an assault by his father, and April 2018, when one-year-old Evelyn-Rose Muggleton was viciously beaten by her mother’s partner. Both children’s killers have been convicted of murder and are serving life sentences. Continue reading...

Crises may be a sign of panic, but as 2008 showed, the unthinkable can become the doableNeil Woodford was once the man with the Midas touch, the darling of the investor community. His record of picking winners was such that money flowed like torrents into his funds.As time went by, picking winners became more difficult and some of Woodford’s growth stocks turned out to be duds. A few eyebrows were raised. Eventually, as investors started to contemplate big losses, many of them asked for their money back. The demands for redemptions became so great that trading in Woodford’s flagship fund was suspended for 28 days. Or, to put it in old-fashioned terms, capital controls were imposed. Continue reading...

Why do Americans think the sole choice is hardline economic nationalism or unfettered free trade?

The ultra low emissions zone will be used by left and right to discomfit the London mayor. The Conservatives should do their environmental bit and support himA petition against the London mayor’s tax on car emissions – the ultra low emissions zone (Ulez) – has yet to reach 100,000 signatures, but is not far off, at 91,000.This is not a protest against the tax imposed in April on high-emission vehicles travelling into the West End and the City, inside the existing congestion zone. No, the petition is a howl of pain directed at the zone’s planned extension to the vast expanse between the north and south circular roads.Should Johnson become PM, the former London mayor would relish watching Khan suffering a hail of abuse Continue reading...

Human beings have a value in themselves that can’t be measuredA McKinsey report this week estimates that one in five women’s jobs in Britain and the US will be automated away in the next 10 years. Although men’s jobs will disappear at about the same rate, the study says, they will do so in a different way: women may face particular difficulties in the transition to the future. It is striking that the report, like others of its kind, values women’s work entirely in terms of money.There are two problems with this. The first, well-known, is that women’s work is valued less by the market than men’s. The second and larger question is how to think about the value of women’s lives, and men’s too. Continue reading...

Dollar slides after America only created 75,000 new jobs last month, weaker than the 175,000 expected

Job creation numbers came in below expectations, causing economists to predict that Fed will begin cutting interest ratesGrowth in the US employment market decelerated sharply in May, as the economy added just 75,000 jobs – holding the unemployment rate steady at 3.6%, matching its lowest level since 1969.Related: Trump lashes out at Pelosi for saying she wants to see him 'in prison' – live Continue reading...

Concern that trade tensions and Brexit uncertainty are weighing on world growthGerman exports and industrial output fell sharply in April, triggering fresh fears that trade tensions and continued Brexit uncertainty are weighing on the global growth outlook.Industrial production in Europe’s largest economy fell 1.9%, which was the worst monthly fall in almost four years, according to Germany’s statistics office. It was much worse than the 0.4% decline forecast by economists. Continue reading...

Even otherwise spineless Republican senators are alarmed at Trump’s trade wars – because tariffs are hurting crucial 2020 battleground states

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as workers in Bridgend gather to hear the future of Ford’s engine plant

Fund says economic benefits of decade-long expansion have not been widely sharedThe increasingly polarised US economy has meant that a record-breaking period of growth has been accompanied by falling life expectancy, high levels of poverty and stagnant living standards for average Americans, the International Monetary Fund has said.In its annual health check on the world’s biggest economy, the IMF highlighted a range of “troubling” social indicators marring a decade-long expansion which in July will be the longest in the country’s history.The impact of rising suicides and drug overdoses on falling life expectancy, now one of the lowest in the G7.A rise of just 2.2% in inflation-adjusted incomes for the median US household since the end of the 1990s, even though per capita incomes have risen by 23%.A decrease in wealth among the poorest 40% of the population since 1983.The fact that 45 million Americans live in poverty.An erosion of social mobility so that half of today’s young American adults earn less than their parents did at a similar age. Forty years ago the figure was 10%.Poor education outcomes by international standards despite devoting a bigger slice of national income to schools and colleges. Continue reading...

French government blamed as €33bn deal to create world’s third-largest carmaker stallsThe proposed €33bn (£29bn) merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault has collapsed after an intervention from the French government, Renault’s biggest shareholder.Fiat Chrysler, an Italian-American company, withdrew from a 50-50 merger proposal with its French rival after a board meeting on Wednesday. A deal would have created the world’s third-largest carmaker behind Volkswagen and Toyota. Continue reading...

The economic arguments adopted by Britain and the US in the 1980s led to vastly increased inequality – and gave the false impression that this outcome was not only inevitable, but good. By Jonathan AldredIn most rich countries, inequality is rising, and has been rising for some time. Many people believe this is a problem, but, equally, many think there’s not much we can do about it. After all, the argument goes, globalisation and new technology have created an economy in which those with highly valued skills or talents can earn huge rewards. Inequality inevitably rises. Attempting to reduce inequality via redistributive taxation is likely to fail because the global elite can easily hide their money in tax havens. Insofar as increased taxation does hit the rich, it will deter wealth creation, so we all end up poorer.One strange thing about these arguments, whatever their merits, is how they stand in stark contrast to the economic orthodoxy that existed from roughly 1945 until 1980, which held that rising inequality was not inevitable, and that various government policies could reduce it. What’s more, these policies appear to have been successful. Inequality fell in most countries from the 1940s to the 1970s. The inequality we see today is largely due to changes since 1980.Related: The finance curse: how the outsized power of the City of London makes Britain poorer Continue reading...

Trump has said a 5% tariff on Mexican goods will go into effect Monday if no agreement is reachedSign up for the US briefing and get a new perspective1.44am BST12.30am BSTHere’s a dispatch from David Agren, our correspondent in Mexico:Mexico’s foreign minister Marcelo Ebrard said talks will continue tomorrow, but that US officials focused more on migration matters than tariffs today. That’s a departure from past years, when US and Mexican officials tried to keep matters like trade, security and migration separate.11.50pm BSTPresident Trump issued a statement via tweet on the US-Mexico talks around tariffs and immigration:Immigration discussions at the White House with representatives of Mexico have ended for the day. Progress is being made, but not nearly enough! Border arrests for May are at 133,000 because of Mexico & the Democrats in Congress refusing to budge on immigration reform. Further.......talks with Mexico will resume tomorrow with the understanding that, if no agreement is reached, Tariffs at the 5% level will begin on Monday, with monthly increases as per schedule. The higher the Tariffs go, the higher the number of companies that will move back to the USA!11.47pm BSTSenator Tammy Duckworth, who lost both her legs serving her Iraq, took umbrage with the comments that President Trump made regarding the Vietnam War and military service. She responded to his remarks today:#CadetBoneSpurs: no one cares whether you were a “fan” of the Vietnam War. No one believes you were medically unfit to serve. You used your wealth & privilege to avoid serving your country five times, forcing another American to serve in your place each time. 1/ https://t.co/bSZbQlnWMfNow, you're stealing billions from @DeptofDefense's budget to fund a wall you promised Mexico would pay for. You're failing to support military families by taking away caregiver funding. You're kicking out Americans who *are* willing to serve only because they're transgender. 2/Sane people aren't "fans" of war—only #StableGeniuses would even think that. I’ve met many #WWII #DDay Vets. None ever said they were fans of war. They simply answered their nation’s call, regardless of what they thought. Especially during the draft—it wasn’t optional for them 3/These comments only make one thing clear: @realDonaldTrump got his deferments for the wrong thing. They shouldn't have been for his disappearing, imaginary bone spurs—they should have been for that yellow streak down his back. At least that would have been a real condition. 4/411.13pm BST⚡️#MexicoTariffs