Attendance of chief negotiator reduces fears of collapse of discussions after Trump tweetsChina’s chief trade negotiator will travel to Washington this week, according to the commerce ministry, tempering fears that talks to resolve a protracted trade war between the US and Beijing had been scuppered.Liu He, a vice-premier, will hold negotiations in Washington on Thursday and Friday, according to the Chinese ministry, which did not elaborate on the agenda.Related: Why did Trump threaten to raise China tariffs – and what now? Continue reading...

Much of the middle class used to enjoy relative autonomy but now they are treated as automatons, says Pete Dorey, while Roger Brown says the real culprit is financialisationI fear the plight of the middle class is even worse than Larry Elliott portrays (Welcome to a world of rich and poor with little in between, Journal, 3 May). In addition to being “hollowed out” and suffering stagnant incomes, much of the middle class – public and private sector – has been subjected for two decades to increasing workplace monitoring and micromanagement, bureaucratic control, corporate compliance obligations, target-chasing, constant appraisals and monitoring, the loss of automatic pay increments based on length of service, hot-desking in battery-farm open-plan offices, “presenteeism” and attacks on “unaffordable” occupational pensions.Much of the middle class used to enjoy relative autonomy, creativity and professional discretion, based on expertise and trust, in performing their jobs; not any more. Now they are treated as automatons, with any sign of individuality or personality viewed with suspicion by management. Continue reading...

One in seven companies would have collapsed were it not for low interest rates, says KPMG

Stocks in Asia plummet after signal that US will hike import tax to 25%, dealing blow to hopes of a lasting dealDonald Trump has escalated the trade war with China by announcing plans to hike the tariff imposed on $200bn of Chinese goods from 10% to 25% on Friday.The US president also threatened to impose tariffs on all Chinese trade with America, a move that could further destabilise relations between the two economic powers.For 10 months, China has been paying Tariffs to the USA of 25% on 50 Billion Dollars of High Tech, and 10% on 200 Billion Dollars of other goods. These payments are partially responsible for our great economic results. The 10% will go up to 25% on Friday. 325 Billions Dollars....#Trump threat to impose 25% #tariffs on remaining Chinese goods may ironically be a sign of real progress. US, #China are nearing final deal but were bound to hit a wall. China shd have been expecting the Trump threat in final stages, could have compromise in back pocket ready.. Continue reading...

Beyond the leaks and even the data security lies a message about our attitude toward manufacturingThe debate over whether the Chinese telecoms company Huawei should be involved in building Britain’s 5G network has centred on two questions: was the former defence secretary Gavin Williamson the source of the leak from the National Security Council, and would Huawei represent a security threat?These are certainly important questions, but there is a third issue that deserves an airing – namely, why a country that emerged from the second world war with a technological edge in computers and electronics should require the assistance of what is still classified as an emerging economy to construct a crucial piece of national infrastructure. Continue reading...

The Bank of England governor believes the economy is at risk of overheating but there is no solid base for his predictionThe Bank of England governor Mark Carney must rank as one of Britain’s most popular policymakers. Since he took the post in 2013, the Canadian has often appeared to be the only adult in public life who can stay calm in a crisis. His recent observation that companies and financial markets must recognise the risks of climate change has made him a darling of the environmental movement.It is strange then that he should risk his reputation as a solid guardian of monetary policy – and with only nine months to go before he steps down from the role – with a warning that interest rates will soon rise and at a faster pace than previously expected, without a solid base for his prediction.The only reason economic activity has picked up in the US, eurozone and China is they dropped plans to raise rates Continue reading...

The Conservatives were punished in local government polls because George Osborne’s disastrous economic policy has caught up with themIt did not take the local election results to tell us how unpopular this chaotic government is; but they have certainly rammed the message home. I am wryly amused by reports that the main reason why the Tories are unpopular with certain voters (or leave voters) is that people are dissatisfied with the government for failing “to deliver Brexit”.I am also amused by a report that Michael Gove, a Brexiter minister, believes a failure to deliver Brexit would be “a disaster”. Personally, I can think of few political developments that would be less disastrous. But there you are. Continue reading...

Services companies returned to growth after contraction in previous monthBritain’s economy recovered some of its momentum last month after businesses shook off the threat of a no-deal Brexit, as data from the country’s dominant services sector showed modest growth.Services companies returned to positive territory after a brief period of contraction in March, according to a closely watched survey, while further data this week revealed that a dive in manufacturing exports was offset by a mild recovery in the construction sector. Experts said the figures indicated the UK economy was moving ahead but with a reliance on stockpiling – in case of a disorderly Brexit – rather than new orders to boost activity. Continue reading...

The US economy added 263,000 jobs in April, easily beating expectations of 185,000. The jobless rate fell to a 50-year low of 3.6%

Economy has now added jobs every month for 103 months in a row as wages rose an annual rate of 3.2%The US economy added 263,000 jobs in April, continuing an unprecedented run of jobs growth as the unemployment rate fell to 3.6%, a near 50-year low.The economy has now added jobs every month for 103 months in a row, the longest streak of job creation since records began. The unemployment rate is now the lowest it has been since December 1969.JOBS, JOBS, JOBS!

As the rewards of the digital age are hoarded at the top, automation and flexible working are hollowing out the rest of the economy

An independent Scotland in full control of all of its finances would be able to do so much more, writes Liam Cunningham, while Anne Dalrymple praises Nicola Sturgeon’s grit and compassionThe letters by Alex Gallagher, Maureen Henry and Gerard Scott (30 April) show that the correspondents’ unswerving attachment to the union is clouding their appreciation of the facts. In most areas where the Scottish government has competence, Scotland outperforms the other nations of the UK. This is despite successive cuts to the Scottish block grant and the Scottish government spending in the region of £60m per year trying to mitigate austerity measures introduced by the Conservative-led government at Westminster.This is the reason for the SNP currently having a more than 20% lead over the second-placed party in polls in all three levels of government (Holyrood, Westminster and the EU); people recognise that they are doing a good job with limited resources and severe handicaps imposed by an external agency. An independent Scotland in full control of all of its finances, both raising and spending, would be able to do so much more for the people of this country than is currently possible.

A rise in growth above 1.5% in 2020 and 2021 would be enough for the economy to begin overheatingBank of England governor Mark Carney has warned that a modest recovery over the next three years will warrant higher interest rates than financial markets currently expect as inflationary pressures force the central bank to act.Unlike the European Central Bank and and the US Federal Reserve, which have signalled a significant easing of monetary policy in recent weeks, Carney said investors were under-estimating the likelihood of higher interest rates in three to five years’ time.Related: Climate activists disrupt Barclays AGM; UK interest rates left on hold - business live Continue reading...

Mark Carney is giving a press conference after leaving UK interest rates on hold, as protesters urge action on climate change

Over the last few years, the Guardian talked to many people for whom capitalism isn’t working – here are a few of their storiesWork hard, get paid, thrive. That’s the way the system is supposed to work. If you’re not thriving, according to this logic, you’re simply not working hard enough.But that’s not the reality many people live, even in wealthy, industrialized nations like the United States. For many Americans, long hours and unrelenting dedication to their job are not enough to save them from homelessness, debt, and other humiliations. Continue reading...

With Brexit making the economy ‘unusually volatile’ the Bank of England thinks it best to leave rates well aloneWelcome to limbo land. That was the message from the Bank of England as it once again decided that Britain’s delay at the EU departure gate meant the wisest course of action was to leave interest rates well alone.But only for now, because it was also clear from Threadneedle Street’s quarterly update on the economy that the wait-and-see approach will only last for as long as Brexit uncertainty persists.Related: Bank of England holds interest rates and vows to restrict pace of rises Continue reading...

The Bank of England needs to blacklist high-carbon bonds and commit its huge buying power to ‘green QE’As the adage goes: “There are decades when nothing happens, and there are weeks when decades happen.” After decades of climate complacency, for those in the environmental movement it certainly feels like we might be living in those weeks.Direct action by striking students and Extinction Rebellion has propelled the climate emergency to the top of the news and the political agenda. But while protesters have – quite rightly – called on the government to take more responsibility, the City of London has largely escaped the firing line.Positive Money and Fossil Free London will be demonstrating outside the Bank on ThursdayRelated: Mark Carney’s warning on climate change is timely, but it’s only a start | Larry Elliott Continue reading...

Manufacturers’ exports declined at second-fastest rate in four and a half years in AprilFears over the threat of a disorderly Brexit lost UK companies new orders from international clients last month as factory exports plunged, according to a survey.UK manufacturers’ exports declined at the second-fastest rate in four and a half years in April, amid a slowdown in factory output, the figures from IHS Markit and the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply (Cips) show.Related: UK factory export orders slide as Brexit scares overseas clients away - business live Continue reading...

With $128,308 per capita in annual gross domestic product, Silicon Valley residents out-produce almost every nation on the planetWere it real, the Sultanate of Silicon Valley would be among the world’s richest countries.Cranking out $128,308 per capita in annual gross domestic product (GDP), residents in California’s tech belt out-produce almost every nation on the planet. The valley’s output, pegged at $275bn by the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis, is higher than Finland’s.Related: House-hunting in Silicon Valley: tech's newly rich fuel a spectacle of excess Continue reading...

Eurozone economy grew by 0.4% in the last quarter, faster than expected, as Italy escaped its third recession in a decade

Spain and Italy fuel recovery but analysts say that boost will only be short-term

Universal credit’s effect on food bank use may be greater than statistics suggest, says Jane Middleton, while an anonymous reader eligible for £1.26 a month of the benefit wonders how many others are in her situationThe Trussell Trust is absolutely right to make clear that it is not, and must not be, part of the welfare state (Food bank network hands out 1.6m parcels in a year, 25 April). At the food bank where I volunteer, many of our clients are referred by our local council, which has apparently discovered that it is easier and cheaper to give people on the verge of destitution a food bank voucher than to attend to the underlying issues. Food banks are thus being forced by stealth to become part of the welfare system. Most worryingly, I have noticed recently that when clients tell us they have resorted to the food bank because of delays to their universal credit payment, council referral agencies no longer tick “benefit delays” or “benefit problems” on the referral voucher. Instead they go for “low income”, or even invent their own category, “budgeting”. If other councils are doing the same, the impact will be to distort the Trussell Trust’s statistics on reasons for referral. Given the Department for Work and Pensions’ repeated denial that universal credit drives food bank use, it is impossible not to wonder whether this obfuscation is deliberate.

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news as European businesses grow gloomier, but US growth figures cheer investors

Each month we look at key indicators to see what effect the Brexit process has on growth, prosperity and trade

Two former members of Bank of England’s rate-setting committee on Britain’s economic prospects

Effects will continue to drag on economy for years to come, says Andrew Sentance

Uncertainty over future will cut growth and prevent interest rate rise, says EY Item ClubThe slow-burn impact of Brexit on the British economy will be a drag on growth for the rest of 2019, blocking the Bank of England from raising interest rates, a leading economics forecaster has warned.Ahead of the first major policy decision from Threadneedle Street since Theresa May agreed to delay Brexit until the end of October, the EY Item Club said uncertainty over the country’s future would cut the UK’s growth rate.Related: Names in the frame to be Bank of England governor Continue reading...

Call for developed and emerging economies to set up public registry of loan and debt dataBack in July 2005, the G8 summit at the Gleneagles hotel in Scotland announced a package of aid and debt relief for the world’s poorest countries. The event marked the high point of international development cooperation and was supposed to put the finances of low-income nations on a permanent sustainable footing.For a while, optimism seemed well founded. Public debt for those countries that qualified for help dropped from an average of 100% of their annual income in the early 2000s to just over 30% by 2013 – freeing up resources to spend on health, education and infrastructure projects.The commodity boom was actually a bubble and, like all bubbles, it burst Continue reading...

In 2009, Bob Diamond and BarCap were the financial sector’s Man Utd. Now investors want the unit brought to heelCast your mind back a decade, to the spring of 2009. The UK was four months into its first recession in 18 years, the banking crisis had reached its zenith – or perhaps its nadir – and Manchester United were on the verge of winning the Premier League title.The fortunes of the British economy and the Red Devils have certainly reversed since them, the former improving modestly and the latter … well, not so much.Critics say it has wasted resources, sucking up too much cash while offering little financial return Continue reading...

Incomes for retirees have risen by 60% in 12 years, but by just 36% for the rest. Maybe they should be made to share their good fortuneAt 76 years old, if some of the press coverage is to be believed, Joe Biden is too old to be US president. By the same argument, at 78, Ken Clarke MP is past his sell-by date and 82-year-old Ann Clwyd, MP for Cynon Valley since 1984, should definitely be put out to pasture.Entertainers, who have always pushed the boundaries of acceptability, go the extra mile. Whoever booked the crooner Tony Bennett to perform at the Albert Hall in 2017 to celebrate his 90th birthday, with a follow-up gig in June this year, hasn’t heard about retirement. Neither has the conductor Bernard Haitink, who in March took to the Barbican stage during his 90th year for two concerts with the London Symphony Orchestra: Mozart and Bruckner; and a few days later Mahler and Dvořák. Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, including first-quarter growth figures from America

Stockpiling by businesses helps provide growth of 3.2% in first quarter of 2019US economic growth surged in the first three months of the year to 3.2% as the threat of a trade war with China forced businesses to stockpile at the fastest rate since 2015.Figures from the Department of Commerce showed that a jump in hoarding raw materials and finished goods and an increase in government investment overcame weak consumer spending, a drop in housebuilding and low business investment to send GDP growth well ahead of the 2.2% in the last quarter of 2018. Continue reading...

Readers respond to George Monbiot’s piece on doing away with the current economic model and the recent Extinction Rebellion climate protestsGeorge Monbiot (Time to declare the system dead – before it takes us down with it, 25 April) says he has slowly and reluctantly rejected capitalism because the endless impulse for growth and wealth creation ineluctably drives climate change. Asad Rehman, executive director of War on Want, in his global justice seminar at the Extinction Rebellion protests, focused more on neoliberalism – the even more rapacious, ever-expanding incarnation of capitalist exploitation of people and planet over the last four decades – as the driver of global climate inequality and impending calamity. But left-of-centre ideologies also focus on growth in the bid to tackle inequality, with social and economic priorities overshadowing ecological imperatives.This paper has had occasional discussions of the degrowth movement. In one such, Christiane Kliemann (Let’s face it: we have to choose between our economy and our future, 23 January 2015) posited that once we have accepted there are only radical options left, we have a choice between our economy and our future if we are to meet everybody’s needs more sustainably and equitably, using fewer resources. More focus on degrowth on the political left, and more analysis in these pages of its underpinnings and its potential, could contribute to movements for creating a global economy that can truly be described as “ours”, and a future not only for those of us in the global north, but also a present for those in the global south already experiencing the ravages of growth-driven climate change.

President recognises protesters’ demands but vowed to still liberalise the economyEmmanuel Macron has vowed to make his style of politics more “humane”, but insisted he would press on with his project to liberalise the French economy and overhaul its welfare state despite five months of demonstrations by gilets jaunes (yellow vest) anti-government protesters.In his first press conference in two years as president, Macron promised €5bn (£4.3bn) worth of cuts to income tax for lower and average earners as well as pension rises for the poorest and vowed no more schools or hospitals would be closed during his presidency, as he responded to protests.Related: Notre Dame €1bn fund pits Paris against provinces Continue reading...

All the latest economic and financial news, as tech stocks rally in New York and a UK supermarket merger is blocked

Plans to ease austerity slightly over next five years are not believable, according to NIESRBritain’s growth rate will bounce back above 1.5% next year as ministers exceed existing public spending budgets to cope with an ageing population, a leading thinktank has said.The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said plans to ease austerity only slightly over the next five years were “unbelievable”. It added that government spending would almost certainly need to increase by more than expected in the next few years, increasing the UK’s GDP growth. Continue reading...

Lords committee calls for free TV licences for over-75s and other perks to be scrappedFree TV licences for over-75s should be scrapped, the age threshold for free bus passes raised and the triple-lock on pensions abolished to close the widening gap between young and old in Britain, according to a Lords report.The House of Lords committee on intergenerational fairness and provision said it was time to rebalance government policy in favour of the young, to remove the risk of the social bonds between generations fraying further. Continue reading...

With plenty of suitable candidates for governor, the chancellor needs to ask them the right questionsPicture the scene. It is high summer at the UK Treasury. Outside in St James’s Park, the tourists are feeding the ducks but inside a selection panel is interviewing a shortlist of candidates to be the next governor of the Bank of England.Attracting suitable candidates has not been a problem. The headhunters have found plenty of people to fit the job description: a person of the highest calibre respected in the highest echelons of central banking. A shortlist of three names has been drawn up.Related: Chancellor hires diversity specialists to find new Bank governor Continue reading...

Kate Andrews of the Institute of Economic Affairs responds to a recent column by Zoe Williams; Elizabeth Manning points out the old pound coins in the illustration accompanying the pieceZoe Williams wonders whether the “courtly courtesy” I showed to her is genuine or sarcastic (Why pay-gap truthers are on the rise, G2, 23 April). I’m pleased to confirm it’s the former – perhaps it’s my American friendliness, or perhaps it’s how any decent person acts in a green room, but I’ve always found that debate on-camera should not preclude pleasantries off-camera. I do take issue with the description of “practically curtseying”, however; Yankees ruled out this act on 4 July 1776.From courtesy to curt – Ms Williams’ description of my pay gap report as legitimising “alt-right YouTube narrative[s]” makes me wonder if she believes it is problematic or offensive for a woman, in her own time and off her own back, to show an interest in statistics – and indeed, the manipulation of statistics. Continue reading...

Southwark Playhouse, London

ONS says borrowing in latest full financial year was £24.7bn, down 41%Philip Hammond has missed his annual target for bringing down the budget deficit, despite borrowing dropping to the lowest level since 2002.The Office for National Statistics said that borrowing in the latest full financial year, which ended in March, was £24.7bn, down by 41% from a year earlier but above the target set for the chancellor. Continue reading...

The workings of capitalism have been challenged both from the populist right and the socialist left. At the heart of the discontent in the US is faltering wages

Our economy works best when no one is left on the sidelines, writes Cory Booker, US senator for New Jersey and a Democratic presidential candidate

Those on disability benefits and low incomes will be among worst affected, IFS concludesAlmost 2 million people will lose more than £1,000 a year following the switch to universal credit, with those claiming disability benefits the worst affected, according to research by a leading thinktank.Self-employed workers on below average incomes and low-income families with little savings will also be among the biggest losers, the Institute for Fiscal Studies study concluded, as the government aims to complete one of the biggest overhauls of the benefits system since the introduction of tax credits in 2003.Related: 'Universal credit is a nightmare – the stress is overwhelming' Continue reading...

Britain’s blue-chip share index has risen over 7,500 points, but Brexit anxiety is pushing sterling down

US warns any country not complying that ‘the risks will not be worth the benefits’Oil prices surged to their highest level in six months on global commodity markets after the US said it would take a harder line against countries that breach its oil embargo on Iran.Brent crude, which provides the benchmark for global oil prices, hit $74.70 a barrel on Tuesday morning while the lighter grade US West Texas intermediate rose to $66.31. The price of both slipped slightly later in the day. Continue reading...

Social media platform’s revenues up 18% as president criticises its treatment of himTwitter has reported better-than-expected financial results, sending its shares surging, as Donald Trump accused the social media platform of “playing political games”.Revenues for the first quarter climbed by 18% to $787m (£605m), beating Wall Street forecasts of $776m. Revenues were boosted by ad sales that also rose 18%, to $679m. Its shares jumped nearly 13% to $38.81. A year ago, they were changing hands at $31.22.“The best thing ever to happen to Twitter is Donald Trump.” @MariaBartiromo So true, but they don’t treat me well as a Republican. Very discriminatory, hard for people to sign on. Constantly taking people off list. Big complaints from many people. Different names-over 100 M..........But should be much higher than that if Twitter wasn’t playing their political games. No wonder Congress wants to get involved - and they should. Must be more, and fairer, companies to get out the WORD! Continue reading...

Hopes of a US-China deal, as well as Brexit delays, have cheered investors, but there are risks aheadFinancial markets tend to undergo manic-depressive cycles, and this has been especially true in recent years. During risk-ons, investors – driven by “animal spirits” – produce bull markets, frothiness, and sometimes outright bubbles; eventually, however, they overreact to some negative shock by becoming too pessimistic, shedding risk, and forcing a correction or bear market.Whereas prices of US and global equities rose sharply throughout 2017, markets began to wobble in 2018, and became fully depressed in the last quarter of the year. This risk-off reflected concerns about a global recession, Sino-American trade tensions, and the Federal Reserve’s signals that it would continue to raise interest rates and pursue quantitative tightening. But since this past January, markets have rallied, so much so that some senior asset managers now foresee a market “melt-up” (the opposite of a meltdown), with equities continuing to rise sharply above their current elevated levels. Continue reading...

Bone-headed reforms and deep cuts have left our education system in a scandalous state of disrepairLast summer, as the politics of Britain’s exit from the EU staggered on and England’s World Cup run offered some kind of respite, I spent an afternoon in Brownhills, near the West Midlands town of Walsall. I was there to try to get beyond the deafening inanities of Brexit, and report on the mounting financial crisis facing England’s education system. At Millfield primary school, everything once again became clear.Millfield serves a deprived catchment area, and is the kind of place whose everyday magic becomes obvious as soon as you walk in. It has an imaginative approach to education and a track record of helping children in difficult circumstances. Despite its location among tarmac and trunk roads, it specialises in outdoor activities such as canoeing and hiking. But the day I was there, all the talk was of which bits of its provision would have to go. Its headteacher, Michelle Sheehy, was blunt: “We’re heading for a £200,000 deficit. So we need to cut.”Related: One in five teachers using own money for school supplies – reportRelated: More than 1,000 English schools turn to online donations to close funding gap Continue reading...

There isn’t a shortage of Brits to succeed Carney, but the net may well be spread beyond these shoresWanted: suitable candidate to run one of the world’s leading central banks. Applicants should demonstrate the economic acumen of a Keynes, the diplomatic skills of a Metternich, the political cunning of a Machiavelli, and the hide of a rhinoceros. Those interested should register their interest with the Right Hon Philip Hammond Esq at HM Treasury. Interviews will take place in the coming months and the name of the new governor will be announced in the autumn.Now that there is a bit of Brexit breathing space, Hammond can get on with a couple of the other issues in his intray, one of which is to find a successor to Mark Carney at the Bank of England when he leaves next January. Continue reading...