Increase in non-farm payrolls of 134,000 in September is smaller than expectedUS figures have shown the lowest jobless rate since the year of the first moon landings, keeping the world’s largest economy on course for further interest rate rises.Eagerly awaited figures for jobs and wages showed less inflationary pressure in the world’s biggest economy than had been feared, but still pointed to more hikes by the Federal Reserve. Continue reading...
Asian shares fall again as countries that borrowed heavily in dollars could be hit by further US interest rate riseMounting concern about the inflationary impact of falling US unemployment has sent tremors through global financial markets amid fears that the long post-financial crisis rally in asset prices is nearing its end.The effective interest rate on 10-year benchmark US bonds reached their highest level for seven years after the latest snapshot of the American labour market showed fewer workers claiming jobless benefits.Related: Soaring US dollar threatens trouble for emerging markets Continue reading...
Fifth of UK men who left education at earliest stage are in vulnerable sectors, says IFSMale workers with few qualifications will be the hardest hit by fresh barriers to trade erected after Britain leaves the European Union, according to one of the UK’s leading thinktanks.The Institute for Fiscal Studies said men in manufacturing jobs who had left school with GCSE qualifications or below were the most exposed to curbs on the flow of goods after Brexit. Continue reading...
Readers react with some scepticism to the prime minister’s claims to the Tory conferenceSo “austerity is over†(Back me on Brexit and I will end decade of austerity, pledges May, 4 October). Who is Theresa May kidding? For millions of adults and children living at or below the poverty line because of the savage cuts of the past few years, for those on NHS waiting lists that daily grow longer, for those in substandard housing or who cannot even get on the housing ladder, it will be a permanent legacy of Tory government callousness and indifference to their plight, while rich donors and multinationals get away with tax dodging on a truly stupendous scale.My county council (like many others), having cut £145m over recent years, cutting services to the elderly, underfunding schools, closing waste tips for two days a week, failing with pothole repairs, is now having to look at another £145m of cuts over the next few years, as the government grant reduces to zero. Ceasing altogether to provide housing support to vulnerable groups, leading potentially to more homelessness and NHS demand, and slashing support to troubled children and families are just two of the cuts being considered, with inevitable consequences. Continue reading...
People are crying out for economic justice and cultural security. Whoever grasps this will control the immediate political futurePolitical parties are governed by ideology. That ideology works when it offers the best explanation of reality to the party’s activists, members and voters. But when reality shifts – when the experience of people is no longer legitimated or explained by the politics they are offered – then that party and that ideology are in mortal danger.At the close of this autumn’s party conference season, it is clear we are in the middle of a significant reframing of our political reality. The shift is probably equal to, if not greater than, the 1945 moment that founded welfare states across Europe or the Thatcher revolution in 1979, which began the dismantling of them in the name of free-market economics. Continue reading...
PM’s announcement doesn’t reflect current Treasury policy as departments still face cutsTheresa May announced an end to austerity in her Conservative party conference speech this week. However, the statement raised questions about how the Tories’ cornerstone economic policy can be unwound.Did Theresa May give a timeframe for ending austerity this week? Continue reading...
So easy to say, so difficult to do. May’s scant offerings will barely touch the damage that’s been wreaked on this countryPut out more flags! Ring the bells and light the beacons, the austerity war against the people is over! The prime minister said: “The British people need to know the end is in sight. And our message to them must be: we get it.â€But “getting it†doesn’t mean doing it: announcing it may be all that matters. Consider how easily her promised £20bn a year for the NHS has taken the ongoing crisis in hospitals and GP surgeries off the front pages, without a penny spent and winter approaching. Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies said today that, on top of this, £20bn extra by the end of the parliament would only stop further cuts, with the funds consumed by rising numbers of older people. That’s a sobering thought – such a large sum just to stand still.Related: The Guardian view on Theresa May’s speech: getting by on borrowed time | EditorialRelated: Nissan becomes latest manufacturer to warn against hard Brexit Continue reading...
CEO says bank already more cautious about lending, especially in retail and construction sectorsThe chief executive of the bailed-out Royal Bank of Scotland has warned a no-deal Brexit could tip the UK into a recession.Ross McEwan said a “bad Brexit†could result in negative growth in Britain and that RBS had become more cautious about lending to some sectors, including retail.Retailers that have gone bust 2017-18 Continue reading...
Strong economy and hawkish monetary policy pushback greenback ever higher – and other currencies are sufferingThe US dollar continued to soar in value over Wednesday night, signalling the likelihood of more interest rate rises and spelling trouble for developing countries that have borrowed heavily in the greenback.With impressive service sector data published on Wednesday and strong jobs figures in the non-farm payrolls expected on Friday, the dollar hit an 11-month high against the yen and drove US treasury yields to their highest since mid-2011. The pound slipped below $1.30.Related: World economy at risk of another financial crash, says IMFRelated: Argentina, Turkey, Mexico ... fear of contagion haunts emerging markets Continue reading...
by Richard Partington Economics correspondent on (#402ZD)
‘Flexible hours’ was draw for only 28% taking gig economy contracts, finds labour studyAlmost half of people on zero-hours contracts want more regular work and greater levels of job security, according to a study that challenges the idea that workers want such terms for the flexibility they offer.According to the report from three labour market economists, to be presented at an international conference in Austria this week, 44% of workers in a survey of 20,000 people on zero-hours contracts said they would like more working hours.Related: Deliveroo couriers win six-figure payout in employment rights case Continue reading...
Debt is above 2008 level and failure to reform banking system could trigger crisisThe world economy is at risk of another financial meltdown, following the failure of governments and regulators to push through all the reforms needed to protect the system from reckless behaviour, the International Monetary Fund has warned.With global debt levels well above those at the time of the last crash in 2008, the risk remains that unregulated parts of the financial system could trigger a global panic, the Washington-based lender of last resort said.Related: Gordon Brown is wrong to say British banking is still a free-for-all | Alex Bailin Continue reading...
Giant’s minimum wage rise is down to a looming labour shortage and more stick from politicians, from Trump and Sanders to CorbynAmazon is a trillion-dollar company run by the world’s richest man. It has come from nowhere to be an online behemoth in less than one-quarter of a century. Yet even the biggest company, this behemoth of behemoths, is vulnerable to concerted political pressure and has to live with the basic laws of demand and supply.That, put simply, is the explanation for Amazon’s announcement of seriously big increases in minimum wages for its workers in the US and Britain. On the other side of the Atlantic, no worker will be earning less than $15 (£11.50) an hour – double the federal minimum. Here, the minimum has been raised by 28% for workers in London and 18% for those in the rest of the UK.Related: Jeff Bezos: where the $106bn man belongs on the all-time rich list Continue reading...
Loan for enclave still affected by bad debts from 2008 financial crisis equates to £7,500 per residentLeaders of the medieval enclave of San Marino are preparing to ask the International Monetary Fund for a €250m (£222m) loan to bolster its banks, still weighed down by bad debts 10 years after the global financial crisis.The microstate, which is landlocked within central Italy, has struggled to recover from the effects of the 2008 crisis, which not only exposed the secret bank accounts that helped to generate a hefty amount of its wealth over the years but also embroiled its largest bank – Cassa di Risparmio della Repubblica di San Marino (CRSM) – in a money-laundering scandal. Continue reading...
ONS pegs value of cooking, cleaning and childcare at £1.24tn – almost £19,000 per personUnpaid household work, such as looking after children, doing laundry and cooking, is worth £1.24tn per year – more than the value of the UK’s retail and manufacturing output combined, according to official figures.The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released data for 2015 and 2016 on Tuesday estimating the value of the unpaid work undertaken by households, which also included caring for adults at home and driving to work. It said the value had grown every year from 2005 to 2016. Continue reading...
Matteo Salvini claims Jean-Claude Juncker’s comments drove up Rome’s cost of borrowingThe Italian deputy prime minister, Matteo Salvini, has threatened to sue Jean-Claude Juncker for damages, accusing the EU president of pushing up Rome’s cost of borrowing by likening Italy to Greece.Salvini, who is also Italy’s interior minister and leader of the far-right League party, was speaking after Juncker’s comments helped send the yield on Italian benchmark bonds to a four-and-a-half year high of 3.4%, while shares in Italian banks plunged.Related: European markets fall after Italy's deficit-widening budget plansRelated: Pro-refugee Italian mayor arrested for 'aiding illegal migration' Continue reading...
Company says it has ‘listened to its critics’ as it increases US rate to $15 and UK to £9.50Amazon has raised its minimum wage for British and American workers, in a major milestone for campaigners pushing for pay increases to tackle rising levels of poverty and inequality.The company, which has become almost a byword for low-paid and low-quality work in recent years, said it would increase its US minimum wage to $15 (£11.57) an hour for more than 350,000 workers. In the UK 40,000 permanent and temporary staff will get an increase to £10.50 an hour in London and £9.50 across the rest of the country. Continue reading...
Tory policies have concentrated power and wealth in a few hands. No wonder the party’s supporters now look to LabourBelieve the pundits, and the remedy for the Conservatives is simple. They need a new leader. Some new faces around the cabinet table.Some flashy new policies. And, everyone agrees, they need to stop flicking V-signs at business. But nothing too radical. An oil change, a spray job, and they’ll be motoring again.Political wisdom is often little more than sonorous simple-mindedness, and this is a prime example. Judging by Philip Hammond’s speech to the Tory faithful on Monday, the chancellor doesn’t buy it, either. Humming through his lines was an anxiety about the threat posed by Jeremy Corbyn. Whatever their press releases say, cabinet ministers are stumbling through the Tory conference in Birmingham worried that Labour’s arguments about Britain’s broken economy are hitting home. And with good reason.Related: Welfare spending for UK's poorest shrinks by £37bnRelated: Is Theresa May’s plan for a festival of Brexit just an appalling sop to the DUP? | Andrew Adonis Continue reading...
by Richard Partington Economics correspondent on (#3ZXY3)
11th-hour agreement ends months of dispute between the US and its closest neighboursThe US, Canada and Mexico have reached a deal to revamp the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta), ending months of bitter dispute between the world’s largest economy and its closest neighbours.Donald Trump declared the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) – the new name for the world’s second-biggest economic bloc behind the European Union – a “wonderful new trade dealâ€, which came through an 11th-hour agreement late on Sunday.Related: Markets rally as Trump hails 'biggest ever' trade deal with Canada and Mexico - as it happenedRelated: Trump professes love for Kim and hate for Kavanaugh torment in freewheeling speech Continue reading...
Keith Flett, Derrick Joad and Stan Zetie reflect on what Brexit could mean for the left. Plus George Osborn says the video games industry expressed its concerns about BrexitLarry Elliott highlights the minority case on the left for leaving the EU (The left case for leave is gaining strength as it becomes clear that this Europe is not for turning, 1 October). It is one I agree with in principle. The EU is a neoliberal institution, and while it may be possible to reform it, this seems to have dropped off the agenda of those on the left who argue for remaining in the EU. It would be highly likely to prove a serious obstacle to any progressive advance in the UK.That said, I voted remain because there is also a tactical argument to be had about when would be a good time to leave. At the moment we are most likely to be heading for a rightwing Brexit, stirring up racism and attacks on the conditions of those at work. It is true that the crisis in rightwing politics this is causing – witness this week’s Tory conference – could bring a general election and a victory for the left. If so, those who backed “lexit†– a leftwing exit from the EU – will be shown to have had a strong, if little heard, case.
Conservatives need to show themselves ‘worthy of the privilege’ of governing post-Brexit Britain, chancellor saysThe government’s growing concern at the challenge posed by Labour has been highlighted by Philip Hammond as the chancellor admitted that Jeremy Corbyn was asking questions the Conservatives needed to answer.Hammond joined other cabinet colleagues in warning that Labour’s policies would endanger the economy but said his own party needed to show itself “worthy of the privilege of governing post-Brexit Britainâ€.Related: Conservative conference: Hammond pledges digital services tax on web giants - Politics live Continue reading...
by Richard Partington Economics correspondent on (#3ZXGS)
Christine Lagarde drops hint that fund will cut global growth forecast next weekThe head of the International Monetary Fund has sounded the alarm over the global economy, warning of an economic slowdown triggered by rising trade protectionism and soaring levels of debt.Christine Lagarde used a speech in Washington on Monday to drop the broadest possible hint that the IMF would cut its global growth forecast when it unveils its latest health check on the world economy next week.Related: How the IMF can manage the global economy better Continue reading...
by Richard Partington Economics correspondent on (#3ZWZC)
Number of employees at large firms fell for second successive month in SeptemberBritain’s biggest manufacturers are cutting jobs and becoming increasingly reluctant to hire amid growing uncertainty over Brexit, according to a survey.The report from the IHS Markit and Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply purchasing managers’ index found the number of employees working at large firms fell for a second successive month in September. Continue reading...
Only one-third of companies expecting to increase their investments, says reportBritish manufacturers are pulling back sharply on investment plans due to mounting uncertainty over Brexit and growing fears of a global trade war, a report has warned.Just one-third of companies said they planned to increase their investment in plant and machinery – a record low in the fifth annual survey carried out by the EEF manufacturers’ body and Santander Bank. Investment by small companies was particularly squeezed, with three-quarters saying they were having to mothball spending plans in the coming two years. Continue reading...
It’s easy to see why Corbyn and McDonnell are reluctant to put a remain option on a new ballotPolitics was once a simple affair. On one side were the lefties, unhappy with the status quo and agitating for something different. On the other side were the conservatives, suspicious of change. When it comes to Brexit, though, the natural order of things has been reversed. The right has come up with all sorts of visions – most of them dystopian – of Britain’s future outside the European Union. The left, for the most part, has spent its time praying for the vote in June 2016 to be reversed.It’s a bit more complicated than that. There are those on the left who understand that there was a reason people who had never voted before came out in their millions to vote for leave, and who say that something must be done for communities hollowed out by the failed policies of the past four decades. They even have a soundbite: tough on Brexit, tough on the causes of Brexit.The Left Case Against the EU by Costas Lapavitsas; PolityThe Left Case for Brexit by Philip Whyman; Civitas Continue reading...
A brave chancellor would ditch his fiscal rules next month and spend on welfare and schoolsAs Philip Hammond puts the finishing touches to his conference speech he may want to consider a total rewrite. Boring Phil needs to talk to the nation, not his party. It is time for the most senior one-nation Tory (Theresa May is a pretender to this crown) to be a bit more statesmanlike and think about people beyond the audience.That doesn’t look likely though. His announcement last week of an autumn budget (on 29 October), suggested he plans to stick to offering a “balanced approach†to debt “while supporting vital public services, and building a stronger, more prosperous economyâ€.Inaction would be the coward's way out. It would be much more statesmanlike to ditch his fiscal rules Continue reading...
by Nazia ParveenNorth of England Correspondent on (#3ZT2X)
It was billed as the finest such centre in Europe, but Salford’s once-buzzing ‘precinct’ is now home to charity shops, pawnbrokers and a few tenacious independent tradersA visit to the constituency of Rebecca Long-Bailey, the shadow business secretary, shows that Salford is one of those places around Britain where the high street is suffering the “slow and agonising death†she referred to in her conference speech.A couple of miles from Manchester city centre, a concrete high-rise looms over what is known locally as the “precinctâ€. A daubed red arrow points to “Salford Shopping Cityâ€, a 1960s-built complex that is home to a particularly depressing collection of charity shops, pawnshops and payday lenders.Related: Can Labour’s five-point plan rescue Britain’s high streets? Continue reading...
by Richard Partington Economics correspondent on (#3ZRA8)
Proposals for 2019 put the country on a potential collision course with the EUFears that Italy is on a collision course with the EU over its spending plans triggered sharp falls in European markets after the new government in Rome unveiled a deficit-widening budget.The coalition of the Five Star Movement and the League announced 2019 budget plans late on Thursday that would push the deficit – the gap between income from taxes and expenditure – to three times the size of the spending gap under the previous administration.Related: Italy's budget drama – all you need to know Continue reading...
Readers offer their views on how to make the economy work for everyone as Aditya Chakrabortty’s Alternatives column comes to a closeThe close of Aditya Chakrabortty’s Alternatives column (26 September) is an opportunity to spread alternatives for economic justice and sustainability across the mainstream of the Guardian. The business environment we trade in tends to assume that companies are investor-owned, and operating against that default incurs cost and risk. It takes confidence, even courage, to grow alternatives. Similarly, media reporting on alternatives takes effort, reaching outside of the bubble of the stock market ticker tape and corporate PR.One example, the community shares model for co-ops, with over 100,000 member investors, has been a game-changer. Community energy, village shops, community-owned pubs and new online platform co-ops are reinventing capital markets on a local, human scale. The same is true for every other part of the economy, from housing and work to trade and innovation. In each case, there are extraordinary stories of people coming together, stories of setbacks and scandals of the neglect of communities by powerful institutions. Continue reading...
All polyamory participants talk as if they are living in a social vacuum, unaffected by the wider social order, writes Sydney PeirisIn your article (‘There’s so much joy in being poly’, G2, 25 September) one person declares: “What I love about polyamory is that I’m my own person and no one owns me. I don’t own any of you, either. We’re all free.†It seems to me this represents the vision of the human in capitalist culture: the unfettered, autonomous, rational, economic man. All polyamory participants talk about their feelings as if they are living in a social vacuum, unaffected by the wider social order in which they live. Kathleen Lynch, the Irish educationist, argues that our education system too enshrines the rational autonomous subject. Instead she advocates education for nurturing affective relationships and the recognition that we are profoundly dependent and interdependent on others for much of life. Relationships, whether monogamy or poly, are vitiated by the values currently celebrated in capitalist culture: narcissism and hedonism.
The eurozone’s third biggest economy is heading for a clash with Brussels over deficit planThe financial markets are het up about events in Rome for three reasons. First, Italy is the third biggest economy in the eurozone after Germany and France. Second, its banking system is fragile after two decades in which the economy has posted precious little growth. And third, it has a new populist government – a coalition of the League and the Five Star Movement – with a radical agenda that includes raising pensions and introducing a basic income.Related: Italy agrees high public spending reforms in potential clash with EU Continue reading...
Quarterly spending fall of 0.7% is fourth dip in a row, leading to fears of reduced growthUK companies cut their investments in Britain in the second quarter of 2018 amid mounting uncertainty over Brexit, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of weak spending by firms, according to government figures.The Office for National Statistics said spending on projects and assets including transport equipment, machinery, buildings and intellectual property fell by 0.7% over the three months to the end of June to £47.5bn. Continue reading...
by Richard Partington Economics correspondent on (#3ZPPE)
Wanted: 75 youngsters from all walks of life to freshen up economic advice – must have grade 6 GCSE mathsWhitehall is preparing to hire its first intake of apprentice economists to boost diversity at the heart of government, shaking up a profession often accused of failing to spot the financial crisis coming a decade ago.An Oxbridge-educated maths genius might be the stereotypical candidate for a role advising ministers on economics in Whitehall, but the civil service wants to find 75 young people from all walks of life to take the positions instead.Related: Who gets on to the civil service fast stream?Related: The civil service has known of its gender pay gap for years. So what’s changed? | Jane Dudman Continue reading...
While local council budgets plummet, centralised government gains ever more powerTake back control. After two bloodstained years in British politics, it remains the one Brexit slogan with a modicum of potency. It drips with self-righteous empowerment. It depicts remainers as shiftily in thrall to Brussels, while shielding Brexiters from the charge of mere xenophobia. It is also utterly cynical.In a recent series of interviews for this paper, John Harris travelled the country, going “anywhere but Westminsterâ€. It showed yet again that the poor are always with us, a familiar tale of those “left behindâ€, their misery aggravated by austerity. Theirs is a local Britain savaged over the past decade by massive cuts in spending on services.Related: In Corby, life without local services is set to become a grim realityRelated: Yes, there is an alternative. These people have shown how to ‘take back control’ | Aditya Chakrabortty Continue reading...
Debt-saddled coalition government sets 2019 budget deficit at 2.4% of GDPThe Italian government agreed to a 2019 budget deficit target at 2.4% of GDP on Thursday night in a move that was celebrated by leaders but could bring the heavily indebted country into conflict with the European Union.The economy minister Giovanni Tria succumbed to pressure from the government’s two deputy prime ministers – Luigi Di Maio, the leader of the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S), and Matteo Salvini, who heads up the far-right League – to increase the target in order to pay for election campaign promises such as a universal basic income, flat tax and pension reforms.Related: Markets digest Fed rate hike as Argentina gets $57bn IMF bailout - business live Continue reading...
Readers reflect on policies laid out by the leader of the opposition and the shadow chancellor John McDonnell at the party’s conference in LiverpoolI am no fan of Jeremy Corbyn. He has been an ineffective leader of the opposition in parliament, failing to take advantage of a hopelessly inept PM and many political open goals. However, I am fed up with the grudging critique of many of your commentators.Martin Kettle asserts that “Labour has now been radically transformed into a party in the leader’s own far-left political image†(Can Labour solve the Brexit question? Now it’s imaginable, 27 September). What Corbyn’s Labour is proposing would have been seen as mainstream social democracy in the 1960s and 70s: a refashioning of a mixed economy of public and private ownership which is still in existence in parts of Europe. Continue reading...
My father, David Coates, who has died aged 71, was a political economist, incisive critic of capitalism, and author.He was also a politics lecturer, professor of government and, from 1999, Worrell professor of Anglo-American studies at Wake Forest University, North Carolina. His academic work ranged widely: from the British labour movement and social change in postwar Britain to the possibilities of “third way†leftwing politics. Continue reading...
Investors take stock after mixed messages from the US Federal Reserve, as Argentina secures the biggest ever loan in the history of the International Monetary Fund
by Peter Beaumont in Port Louis and Tom Gardner in Ad on (#3ZMP0)
As Africa seeks new ways to tackle high debt, low pay and inequality, Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz believes two countries offer an alternative to the ‘Asian tiger’ modelThere’s a speech that the Nobel-prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz has been taking around African countries these past few years.Last autumn the venue was South Africa’s capital, Cape Town, and the issue was among the most pressing facing the continent: how its economies can grow fast enough to keep up with the world’s most sharply expanding and youthful populations, which will include three-quarters of the additional 4 billion people on the planet by the end of this century.Related: In Ethiopia’s bushlands, promised riches of a railway boom turn to dust Continue reading...
by Uki Goñi in Buenos Aires and agencies on (#3ZMRE)
Strict restrictions on funds include commitment to zero deficit for 2019 and limits on central bank actionsArgentina has received the biggest loan package ever from the International Monetary Fund, aimed at shoring up the country’s ailing finances: a whopping $57.1bn that will be disbursed over the next three years.
Move is the eighth since 2015 as the central bank aims to unwind years of historically low ratesThe US Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates again on Wednesday, the eighth such move since 2015 as the central bank moves to unwind years of historically low rates.After a two-day meeting the Fed announced a quarter percentage point rise in its benchmark rate to a range of 2% to 2.25%. The rate is used to set credit card, mortgage and loan rates and will trigger rises across the board for consumers. Continue reading...
The president’s belief that the nation state can cure economic ills is not without meritOnce every three years the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank hold their annual meetings out of town. Instead of schlepping over to Washington, the gathering of finance ministers and central bank governors is hosted by a member state. Ever since the 2000 meeting in Prague was besieged by anti-globalisation rioters, the away fixtures have tended to be held in places that are hard to get to or where the regime tends to take a dim view of protest: Singapore, Turkey, Peru.This year’s meeting will take place in a couple of weeks on the Indonesian island of Bali, where the IMF and the World Bank can be reasonably confident that the meetings will not be disrupted. At least not from the outside. The real threat no longer comes from balaclava-wearing anarchists throwing Molotov cocktails but from within. Donald Trump is now the one throwing the petrol bombs and for multilateral organisations like the IMF and World Bank, that poses a much bigger threat.Related: Who’s laughing now? The science behind the UN’s reaction to Trump | Sophie Scott Continue reading...
Blackstone boss challenges PM over risks UK departure may have on future investmentTheresa May has been put on the defensive over Brexit at a business summit in New York after a leading chief executive asked her to explain the possible risks of Britain’s departure on future investment, saying: “How bad can things get?â€The question came from Steve Schwarzman of asset management firm Blackstone. He described Brexit as “a little dauntingâ€, and asked May about what he said were the risks of a change of government in the UK.Related: EU steps up plans for no-deal Brexit as Labour stance alarms capitals Continue reading...