Surprise drop in UK inflation takes pressure off the Bank of England to raise interest rates in May

Fund warns all economies look vulnerable as low interest rates lead to debt worth 225% of GDPThe global economy is more deeply indebted than before the financial crisis and countries need to take immediate action to improve their finances before the next downturn, the International Monetary Fund has said.The IMF said a prolonged period of low interest rates had stimulated a build-up of debt worth 225% of world GDP in 2016, 12 points above the previous record level reached in 2009. Continue reading...

Global Future finds Theresa May’s preferred bespoke deal would cost £615m a weekEach of the government’s four Brexit scenarios, including a bespoke deal, would leave Britain poorer and cost the taxpayer hundreds of millions of pounds each week, analysis has shown.The study for the thinktank Global Future by Jonathan Portes, a professor of economics and public policy at King’s College, London, found that a bespoke deal, the government’s preferred option, would have a net negative fiscal impact of about £40bn a year. Continue reading...

Lorraine Hewitt and Martin Cooper respond to a recent Guardian articleRhik Samadder’s view of landlords (Landlords are social parasites. They don’t deserve any awards, 16 April) does not reflect the true situation and is not the balanced reporting normally associated with the Guardian.We agree there are certainly many bad landlords, but there are also good ones. Bitter experience taught us that when landlords have bad tenants there is little true protection for the landlord. Not all landlords are raking in money from poor quality housing. Continue reading...

Parent company unveils 3% sales rise despite refusal to sell online and trouble at rivalsPrimark’s owners said the UK high street was “not remotely dead” as the cut-price fashion chain revealed sales growth and plans for new stores despite troubles at many of its rivals.The retailer, which does not sell online and so misses the big consumer switch towards buying from laptops, tablets and phones, nevertheless said sales rose 3% at established UK stores in the six months to 3 March.Retailers that have gone bust 2017-18 Continue reading...

Squeeze on real earnings eases as unemployment rate falls unexpectedly to 4.2%British workers have seen their first real pay rise in a year, as average wage growth overcomes the fading inflationary effects of the Brexit vote.Bringing to an end 12 months of falling living standards, the latest snapshot of Britain’s job market from the Office for National Statistics showed pay rising above inflation for the first time since January 2017.

Global economy at risk from US-China tariff row and rise of protectionism, report says

Governments warned that protectionism and fear of globalisation will disrupt growthDon’t be fooled. That was the simple message from the International Monetary Fund to policymakers as it boosted its forecasts for the global economy for both 2018 and 2019.Sooner rather than later, the IMF believes, the recovery will peter out.

Shoe shops and banks may be dying out but the ‘experience economy’ offers a future for town centres. They must grasp itIs it really goodbye shop? This has been another terrible month for retailing. Monday’s figures show March footfall down 6% on last year, and almost 9% down in high streets. Clothing is in freefall, down 20%. My two local high streets – one rich, one poor – both look as if they’ve been hit by the plague, with naked windows pockmarked by “For Sale” signs.Toys R Us, BHS and Maplin have gone. We hear of closures from Mothercare, Homebase, House of Fraser, even M&S. Local data shows a net 1,700 shops shut last year. Paula Nickolds of mighty John Lewis said last week that this is her “toughest time in 25 years in the industry”, adding of her own business, “we need to reinvent”.Related: UK retailers see 6% drop in shopper numbers in MarchRelated: Slow UK economic growth is not just a cold weather trend | Larry Elliott Continue reading...

Sterling rises above $1.43 ahead of key UK data this week, while rouble stabilises following steep drop earlier. Markets tense after western air strikes on Syria and ahead of anticipated new US sanctions against Russia2.49pm BSTWall Street has opened higher, as fears of an escalating conflict in Syria faded.2.27pm BSTSince Trump became president in January 2017, the dollar has weakened substantially against most major currencies, including China’s yuan and, until the US sanctions against Russia in the last few weeks, the rouble.Against the yuan, the dollar has fallen 8.6% since 20 January 2017, Reuters data show. It has risen 4.5% against the rouble, although it was down 4% against the Russian currency until new US sanctions on seven Russian oligarchs were announced 1 1/2 weeks ago.2.21pm BSTBack to currencies. US president Donald Trump has tweetedRussia and China are playing the Currency Devaluation game as the U.S. keeps raising interest rates. Not acceptable!1.59pm BSTIn Greece, the central government ran up a primary budget surplus of €2.3bn in the first three months of the year, beating its target, Reuters reports.

Quantitative easing succeeded in staving off disaster but it was not enough to regenerate a fair economy. This could have been achieved by a redistributive, expansionary fiscal policy which ministers were ideologically resistant toWhen running for the Labour leadership, Jeremy Corbyn wanted a “people’s quantitative easing” to boost the economy. It was frostily dismissed in 2015 as being forbidden by provisions in the Lisbon treaty. If we leave the European Union, those strictures will no longer apply. This is not to agitate on the side of Brexiters but to observe that the quiver of the argument against printing money might lose an arrow or two if we leave the EU. In fact, the Bank of England, while the UK was in the EU, did print hundreds of billions of pounds to avoid economic disaster. At the push of a button, the Bank conjured up £435bn to buy up gilts – government bonds – and exchange them for bank deposits. On the national balance sheet this sum is listed as debt, but it is not in the strictest sense because it is not owed to anyone. Turns out there is a magic money tree.Last week, Andy Haldane, the Bank’s chief economist, defended the Bank’s low interest rates and quantitative easing programme from critics, including the prime minister, who have said the policy rewarded those who had assets and penalised those who did not. Mr Haldane’s defence is that the public has yet to grasp how much worse the crisis would have been without QE. There’s a bit of truth on both sides. Having sold their gilts back to the Bank, investors bought up company stocks and bonds or property – sending prices to record highs – instead of creating new activity in the real economy, higher growth and jobs. Money from bond sales remained stuck in the banking system. The government could have corralled the private sector to make socially useful investment but ministers, antagonistic to the state, sat on their hands. The result was that the injection of money caused a stock-market boom in the financial economy, but on the real economy – the target of the policy – it had little effect. Continue reading...

Labour MPs co-author report urging public investment and a bigger role for unionsStronger trade unions, improved regional policy and an end to austerity should form part of a plan to return growth in living standards to its pre-crisis levels, according to a leading leftwing thinktank.Calling for a fairer tax system and a less flexible labour market, the Fabian Society said a comprehensive strategy was required to boost household incomes. Continue reading...

The problem for progressives is that neo-classical beliefs have taken politics to the rightYou can’t buck the market. The turn to the right taken by politics from the mid-1970s onwards was summed up in one phrase coined by Margaret Thatcher in 1988.

The work of Transparency International suggests British businesses need to be careful when looking beyond EuropeAs Britain bids farewell to the single market, plenty of businesses are looking further afield for export opportunities.Some are jumping aboard the trade missions organised by Liam Fox’s department for international trade, while others look to their local chambers of commerce to take them on visits to the far-flung nations trumpeted by Fox as among the fastest growing on the planet. It is an exciting prospect and one that holds out the prospect of replacing lost trade with the EU.Most corruption doesn’t make the headlines: it is more mundane, involving officials on low and middle incomes Continue reading...

There is good news for Christine Lagarde to celebrate at the spring meeting this week – but rising prosperity is not spreading to everyoneChristine Lagarde ought to be a happy woman. As she noted in a speech in Hong Kong last week, there is good economic news around the world. The US is operating at full employment, the upswing in Europe has spread across the continent, Japan is growing strongly and the outlook for Asia is bright.All the same, Lagarde has plenty to worry about as she prepares for this week’s half-yearly meeting of the International Monetary Fund, the organisation run by the former French finance minister. Her concerns can be summed up in five words: protectionism, unilateralism, war, debt and inequality. Continue reading...

Both organisations’ annual forums open this week against a backdrop of growing protectionism and rising violenceFrom Syria to social media, world leaders have many urgent matters to discuss when they congregate at international gatherings. But it is the threat to the world economy from Donald Trump’s trade dispute with China that is poised to dominate the annual spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank this week.Opening in Washington on Monday and hosted by the IMF, the meetings will be attended by leaders and central bankers, including Mark Carney of the Bank of England and the chancellor, Philip Hammond. Continue reading...

Readers respond to articles by Aditya Chakrabortty and Larry ElliottIt’s brilliant to read about the fantastic impact that social enterprises are having on Plymouth (Aditya Chakrabortty: A city that grows good companies, 11 April), allowing the city to grow and develop on its own terms. What is happening in Plymouth is inspiring, but it is important to note that, far from being contained to one city, social enterprises are part of a global movement. In the UK alone, there are tens of thousands of social enterprises – each one dedicated to putting people and communities ahead of private profit. Plymouth is one of 25 officially accredited Social Enterprise Places using social enterprise as a tool to create fairer, accountable and more sustainable economies.Far from being a new idea, social enterprises have proud origins. The Rochdale Pioneers used the principles of social enterprise to tackle the inequities of the Industrial Revolution and these same principles of fairness, equality and community benefit inform social enterprises today. Continue reading...

Carmaker blames Brexit and confusion over diesel policy. European stock markets rise as Syria tensions ease.2.37pm BSTWe are closing the blog and will be back on Monday. Have a good weekend!Jaguar Land Rover, Britain’s biggest carmaker, is to cut 1,000 contractor jobs in Solihull in the Midlands, after a fall in sales it attributed to uncertainty caused by the Brexit vote and the government’s diesel policy. Here is our story:Related: Jaguar Land Rover to announce 1,000 job cuts next week2.08pm BSTHere is the statement from Jaguar:As is standard business practice, Jaguar Land Rover regularly reviews its production schedules to ensure market demand is balanced globally.On Monday we will be cascading our 18/19 production plans for the next fiscal year to our workforce.2.07pm BSTJaguar Land Rover has confirmed that it will cut 1,000 contractor jobs at its Solihull factory. Britain’s biggest carmaker blamed a fall in sales due uncertainty caused by the Brexit vote along with confusion over the government’s diesel policy.1.52pm BSTBack to Jaguar Land Rover. ITV is reporting that Britain’s biggest carmaker will announce production cuts and 1,000 job losses on Monday, and blame Brexit.The company has told Reuters that it is making some adjustments to its production schedules and the level of agency staff. It added that it would unveil its 2018-19 production plans to its workforce on Monday. Jaguar also said that it regularly reviews its production schedules.1.49pm BSTWells Fargo faces a $1bn fine to settle outstanding regulatory investigations related to car insurance and mortgage lending abuses, the bank said. This means it may have to revise its quarterly results to reflect the final settlement.1.16pm BSTOver in the US, Citigroup has reported a 13% increase in quarterly profits, fuelled by lower taxes and higher revenues from consumer banking.The fourth-biggest American bank by assets said net income rose to $4.6bn in the first quarter to 31 March, compared with $4.1bn a year earlier. Earnings per share climbed to $1.68 from $1.35. Analysts had expected $1.61.1.10pm BSTIn January, Jaguar said it would temporarily scale back production at its factory in Halewood near Liverpool in the second quarter. The factory builds three Range Rover models and employs around 6,000 people. Britain’s biggest car manufacturer blamed faltering sales after the Brexit vote and a tax crackdown on diesel vehicles.Here’s our story at the timeRelated: Jaguar Land Rover to cut production at Halewood1.04pm BSTBreaking news: Joel Hills at ITV is tweeting that Jaguar Land Rover will cut production and around 1,000 jobs after a slump in sales. The company is expected to blame Brexit and the slump in demand for diesel vehicles.Jaguar Land Rover is set to cut production and jobs following a slump in sales. Formal announcement will be made on Monday. I’m told around 1000 roles will be affected and that JLR will blame Brexit and sharp fall in demand for diesel.1.03pm BSTMeanwhile, in Italy, the eurozone’s third-largest economy, talks to form a government are still deadlocked. President Sergio Mattarella has declared that there has been “no progress” after a second round of talks with political parties.12.07pm BSTJPMorgan Chase, the biggest US bank by assets, has kicked off the US bank reporting season with strong figures. It has posted a 35% jump in first-quarter profits, boosted by higher interest rates on loans and lower taxes.The bank’s net income rose to $8.7bn or $2.37 a share, in the three months to March from $6.5bn, or $1.65 a share, a year earlier. Analysts had pencilled in $2.28 a share.11.37am BSTFurther detail on the comments made by Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov at a press conference this morning, courtesy of Reuters. He said he hoped there would be no repeat of the experience of Libya and Iraq in the Syria conflict, in a veiled warning to US president Donald Trump.God forbid anything adventurous will be done in Syria following the Libyan and Iraqi experience.11.18am BSTOn a lighter note, the appointment of Goldman Sachs banker David Schwimmer as the new chief executive of the London Stock Exchange has prompted a lot of Friends jokes.As someone who’s constantly being asked on Twitter when the rest of the cast and I are going to do a reunion episode, my heart goes out to the new head of the Stock Exchange. pic.twitter.com/d6uSCdNytH11.11am BSTThere are some snaps on Reuters quoting the Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov as saying that the atmosphere around Syria is very alarming, and that ultimatums and threats do not help the dialogue. He also said that the channels of communication with the US are being used.#BREAKING Russian specialists found no trace of chemical attack in Syria's Douma: Foreign Minister Lavrov11.06am BSTGold prices are up for a second week as concerns over the conflict in Syria remain.While Donald Trump has back-pedalled on the threat of US missile strikes in Syria following last weekend’s chemical attack on civilians, the situation with Syria’s main ally Russia remains tense.Related: Syria crisis: Corbyn accuses May of waiting for Trump's instructions – live10.14am BSTAnd here are Mahony’s thoughts on China moving to trade deficit in March for the first time in a year.Chinese trade data has been the big focus for markets after the biggest economy in Asia posted its first dollar-denominated trade deficit in a year. A sizeable downward shift in Chinese exports will certainly provide heightened anxiety over where we go from here, with the threat of a trade war looming large over an economy which is still heavily reliant upon international demand for their products.10.10am BSTJoshua Mahony, market analyst at at online trading firm IG, has taken a closer look at the UK stock market and the pound.Sterling has hit 10-week highs against the dollar and 11-week highs against the euro, partly related to diverging interest rate expectations for the UK and the eurozone. The Bank of England is widely expected to raise interest rates next month.The FTSE has continued to underperform its peers this morning, with the index trading in the red despite gains across German, Spanish and French indices. Dovish minutes from the European Central Bank yesterday, coupled with a wider story of dollar weakness has ensured the pound continues to outperform against its main peers.With the pound hitting a two-month high against the dollar and ten-month high against the euro, it comes as no surprise that the internationally focused FTSE 100 suffers, while the domestically focused FTSE 250 joins its European counterparts in the green.10.06am BSTIn other data just out, the eurozone’s trade surplus increased to €21bn in February from €20.2bn in January. Exports in the 19 countries sharing the euro declined by 2.3% but imports fell more, by 3.1%, month on month, according to the European Union’s statistics office Eurostat.10.01am BSTThe euro is broadly unchanged versus the dollar after final German inflation figures met economists’ expectations. In March, German inflation rose to a 1.6% annual rate from 1.4%. Spanish inflation also increased, to a four-month high of 1.2%, as did French CPI, which was released yesterday. It was confirmed at a 5 1/2 year high of 1.7% in March.#Spain #CPI #inflation inches up to 1.2% y/y in March

The economy is growing but our paychecks are not. That’s because employers have, over decades, built a political apparatus to hold down pay

The US president tweets confirmation that the US could rejoin the Pacific rim pact, a deal he has described as ‘horrible’Donald Trump has said he would lead America back into the controversial Trans Pacific Partnership trade pact – but only if he was offered a better deal than that negotiated by the Obama administration.After reports that he was reconsidering his decision to pull out of the pact, Trump tweeted on Thursday night that he would only do so if he was offered improved terms from the 11 existing signatories, who include Japan, Australia and Canada.Related: Is Trump right about free trade or is there a progressive alternative? | Jim StanfordWould only join TPP if the deal were substantially better than the deal offered to Pres. Obama. We already have BILATERAL deals with six of the eleven nations in TPP, and are working to make a deal with the biggest of those nations, Japan, who has hit us hard on trade for years! Continue reading...

Trump flayed the deal as ‘one of the worst’ during his campaign but is reportedly ordering advisers to take another look

Stocks venture into positive territory after Donald Trump tweets a military strike against Syria ‘could be very soon or not so soon at all’2.53pm BSTIt is time to close the blog for the day. We’ll be back tomorrow. Thank you for all your comments and good-bye. Here’s a quick summary of today’s main developments.Global stock markets are rising after Donald Trump toned down his threats of missile strikes in Syria.2.41pm BSTIn Europe, stock markets are also pushing higher.2.38pm BSTWall Street has opened higher, on the back of expectations that lower US corporate taxes will boost company earnings alongside easing tensions over the Syria conflict.12.56pm BSTWall Street futures are edging higher, supported by expectations of strong corporate profits as the first-quarter earnings season gets under way and easing geopolitical tensions over Syria.Analysts are expecting quarterly profits at S&P 500 companies to be 18.5% higher than a year ago, the biggest gain in seven years, according to a Thomson Reuters poll.12.45pm BSTThe Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development – the west’s leading economic think tank – has called on governments to use inheritance tax to reduce wealth inequality.Related: Use inheritance tax to tackle inequality of wealth, says OECD12.31pm BSTEuropean stock markets have ventured into positive territory, as tensions eased in the Middle East. Donald Trump sent a new tweet, saying a military strike against Syria after a suspected chemical weapons attack on civilians “could be very soon or not so soon at all”.Never said when an attack on Syria would take place. Could be very soon or not so soon at all! In any event, the United States, under my Administration, has done a great job of ridding the region of ISIS. Where is our “Thank you America?”12.23pm BSTHere is our full story on IAG’s potential bid for low-cost carrier Norwegian.Related: British Airways owner to make bid for transatlantic rival Norwegian12.20pm BSTMichael Hewson at CMC Markets UK has had a closer look at Norwegian, which has undergone an “explosive growth path” in the past few years - raising concerns that the airline might be overextending itself.

Staff to be balloted over chain’s plan to give service charge cash to kitchen staff in lieu of pay riseTGI Friday’s is facing the first strike over tips in the UK in an escalation of a row between waiters and the restaurant chain.In February the casual dining chain, which has 83 outlets, proposed redistributing 40% of service charge payments paid on credit and debit cards to back-of-house employees, including kitchen staff, in lieu of a wage increase. Continue reading...

A frozen February hampered the building and retail industry, but momentum has slowed by sterling’s rise, betting against Brexit, and weak manufacturing

Manufacturing output drops for the first time in a year and construction down sharply for a second month while trade deficit narrows3.03pm BSTOn this note, we are closing the blog for the day.A tweet from Donald Trump warning Russia to get ready for US missile strikes against its ally Syria sent the Russian rouble down 2.5% to its lowest level since November 2016.

Expected growth of 0.2% for February turns into 0.2% decline, ONS data showsEconomic growth in the UK is expected to have fallen by half in the opening months of the year, one of Britain’s leading forecasting bodies has said, amid renewed concerns for the health of the economy.The National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said growth was set to fall to 0.2% in the first quarter of 2018 from 0.4% in the final three months of last year, when the economy enjoyed a mini-recovery despite an overall slowdown in 2017 triggered by the Brexit vote. Continue reading...

Chinese president’s comments may be enough to tamp down escalating rhetoricXi Jinping filled his speech at an annual business summit on Tuesday with aphorisms about hard work and openness. “Heaven rewards the diligent,” the Chinese president said, applauding his country’s achievements. The march of history towards economic liberalisation was irreversible, he said at another point, restating China’s commitment to free trade.Then he slipped in a Chinese proverb: “Heaven has its own law and those who embrace it will prosper.” The saying, meant to celebrate China’s unique blend of socialism and a market-driven economy, contained another message: that China would continue to play by its own rules.Related: China does not want a trade war with the US, but it must defend itself | Liu Xiaoming Continue reading...

Lagarde says ‘darker clouds looming’ for global economy amid US-China tensionsThe head of the International Monetary Fund has warned of “darker clouds looming” for the global economy amid simmering trade tensions between the US and China, urging governments around the world to steer clear of protectionism or face negative consequences.Christine Lagarde said the current system for world trade was “in danger of being torn apart”, with the potential to upset the present global economic upswing and make consumers poorer. Continue reading...

In episode 6, Aditya speaks to Lindsey Hall, director of Real Ideas Organisation in Plymouth. Social enterprises are businesses that try to solve social problems while making a profit. Plymouth is the first social enterprise city in the UKSubscribe and review on Apple Podcasts, Soundcloud, Audioboom, Mixcloudand Acast, and join the discussion on Facebook and TwitterIn episode 6, Aditya speaks to Lindsey Hall, director of Real Ideas Organisation in Plymouth. Plymouth is a city that has more than 150 social enterprises that employ over 7,000 people. Continue reading...

President Xi Jinping pledges pro-western reforms, raising hopes of an end to trade row with the USWall Street has staged a sharp recovery after the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, promised economic reforms and lower import tariffs, soothing fears over the country’s simmering trade standoff with the US.Related: Xi Jinping warns against 'arrogance' amid threat of trade war with US Continue reading...

Representatives of the Publishers Association call on the government to make sure the UK retains its place as ‘the world’s publisher’UK publishing is world leading and a cornerstone of Britain’s cultural and economic influence. The books and journals our authors write have helped shape thoughts and ideas the world over for hundreds of years. Together our industry generates up to £7.8bn for the UK economy and supports more than 70,000 jobs. As Britain leaves the EU and looks to build new trading relationships with the world, negotiations in Brussels and beyond offer a unique chance to ensure the future success of one of Britain’s most important exports. The government has a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to make sure that the outcomes of any negotiations enable the UK to retain its place as the world’s publisher.Supporting our global reach, encouraging new creative and academic works and leading in the digital age will be crucial. We must ensure that the new thinkers and creators of our time can continue to successfully publish their work, sharing ideas and disseminating information that enrich the lives of communities across the world. This week we launched our blueprint for UK publishing at the London Book Fair, which is an exemplar of the global, internationalist and outward-facing economy we should aspire to. It outlines our priorities for government, showing how we can sustain and strengthen the UK publishing sector for many years to come. The continuing success of our industry matters not just to authors, illustrators and publishers, but to the UK’s influence around the world. Publishing is inextricably bound in our country’s history and its values. Let’s make sure it continues to play that role in its future. Continue reading...

Chinese president promises to lower import tariffs, easing fears of trade war2.45pm BSTStock markets are moving higher after a speech by China’s president Xi at the Boao Forum defused some of the fears of a trade war between Beijing and the US. Xi said China would take measures to widen market access for foreign investors and would lower import tariffs on products including cars.However China is reported to have filed a complaint with the World Trade Organisation over the proposed US tariffs on steel and aluminium.2.34pm BSTWith trade war fears easing after the overnight speech from Chinese president Xi, US markets have opened sharply higher.The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently 390 points or 1.63% higher, while the S&P 500 is up 1.36% and the Nasdaq Composite has climbed 1.65%.The expectation was [the Xi speech] could have gone one of two ways: he could have been aggressive about US tariffs or been conciliatory, and it feels like he’s more conciliatory.2.27pm BSTBack with the Boao Forum in China, and the managing director of the International Monetary Fund has also had talks with president Xi:I was pleased to meet President Xi at #Boao2018. The IMF will continue working with China to help strengthening global cooperation. pic.twitter.com/MlqoWwVu8b1.44pm BSTStronger than forecast US producer price figures for March give more ammunition for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again later this year.The Fed has indicated it could increased borrowing costs another two times in 2018 but some expect another rise on top of that if the economic data merits it.A major factor in the March advance in prices for final demand services was the index for outpatient care (partial), which climbed 0.4 percent. The indexes for machinery, equipment, parts, and supplies wholesaling; cable and satellite subscriber services; airline passenger services; food and alcohol wholesaling; and hospital inpatient care also moved higher. In contrast, margins for automotive fuels and lubricants retailing fell 10.4 percent. The indexes for apparel, footwear, and accessories retailing and wireless telecommunications services also decreased.12.35pm BSTAs a sign things are a little calmer on the stock markets at the moment, the VIX volatility index - which had been rising in recent days - is currently down 5% at 20.61.That is not to say there are not a number of uncertainties for investors, from the US/China trade dispute, the situation in Syria, Russian sanctions and the latest on the Mueller investigation in the US.11.52am BSTEuropean stock markets are holding on to their gains, and Wall Street is still expected to open sharplyhigher. Connor Campbell, financial analyst at Spreadex, said:The Dow Jones is all set to leap 320 points after the bell, a chunky jump that would take the beleaguered index to 24300, pushing it towards the top end of its recent trading bracket.However, it is important to note that the US open and close can often operate in completely different universes, especially if Trump gives into his urge to cause a bit of Twitter chaos.11.40am BSTBrexit is getting real:Brexit Day has arrived early in stato land. From today, the EU's number crunchers at Eurostat will publish aggregate data for the EU without the UK (as well as the current composition...): https://t.co/nWh8O1jzZ211.35am BSTThe pound has hit a day’s high of $1.4179, up 0.38% on the talk of further interest rate rises. David Cheetham, chief market analyst at XTB, said:Sterling has moved higher after some hawkish comments from BoE member McCafferty in which he cautioned fellow rate-setters against dallying when it comes to further tightening monetary policy. McCafferty was one of two dissenters who called for higher rates at the last meeting when the bank decided to keep its policy unchanged and his recent comments have pushed the pound/dollar rate to its highest level in more than a fortnight.With the bank expected to raise rates next month, remarks from the voting members will take on a greater importance in the coming weeks with the previous hike in November - the first such increase in more than a decade - being widely telegraphed in advance.11.30am BSTDespite the slump in the rouble, Russia’s central bank has no plans to introduce any measures to reduce volatility.The bank’s first deputy chairman Sergei Shvetsov said the situation with the rouble was “adequate”, according to Reuters.10.30am BSTAnd back with the effects of the US sanctions on Russian companies:Traders' Bloomberg terminals no longer giving stock prices of sanctioned Oleg Deripaska's London-listed En+. Not a great look for the London Stock Exchange, which rolled out red carpet for oleg's en+ float last year.We warmly congratulate Mr Sokov and his management team on their successful IPO today. Welcoming En+ Group to London Stock Exchange is a significant milestone which underlines the City’s position as the leading global listing venue for international companies and investors’ appetite for Russian issuers. With 100 Russian and CIS businesses listed and traded on London’s markets, with a total capitalisation of over $550 billion, London is a strong partner to Russian companies seeking access to global investor capital, as well as an open and dynamic place to do business..@LSEplc delighted to welcome En+ Group to open trading today and celebrate London listing https://t.co/7KQ92HwbvP pic.twitter.com/QYdnmHPVlJ10.09am BSTThe average British household benefited from the Bank of England’s emergency interest rate cut in the financial crisis to the tune of almost £9,000 in pay and £90,000 in household wealth, according to its chief economist.Speaking in Australia, Andy Haldane is defending some of the benefits from low interest rates just before Threadneedle Street looks to increase them to levels unseen since the 2008 crash began.10.00am BSTAnd here is the dramatic movement in the rouble - it shows the rise in the number of roubles needed to buy one dollar:9.46am BSTMeanwhile the Russian rouble continues to come under pressure following the US sanctions against a number of its companies.The currency is down around 4% against the dollar to 63.28, its second day of heavy losses and its lowest level since December 2016.9.43am BSTAnd there is another twist in the trade dispute between the US and China. Associated Press reports:China is filing a complaint with the World Trade Organisation against U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminium products.The Geneva-based trade body said on Tuesday that China has requested 60 days of consultations with the United States to resolve the dispute.9.18am BSTThe Bank of England is not the only central bank to be considering reigning in the financial stimulus - low interest rates and quantitative easing - that have supported stock markets since the financial crisis.Speaking in London, European Central Bank policymaker and Bank of Austria governor Ewald Nowotny said it was now time to “start the gradual normalisation of monetary policy.” He said:We are at an important turning point in monetary policy. We must normalise policy not too soon but not too late.8.59am BSTSterling has edged to a two week high after the comments from Bank of England policymaker Ian McCafferty that there should be no delay in raising interest rates.The pound hit $1.4168 against the dollar in the wake of the remarks, up 0.28%. Against the euro sterling is 0.13% better at €1.1485.8.42am BSTUK interest rates should be raised again without delay, a leading Bank of England policymaker has said.After its meeting last month the Bank hinted at an increase in May, and in an interview with Reuters, Ian McCafferty said the prospect of faster pay rises and a strong pick-up in the global economy emphasised the need for dearer borrowing costs before long.We shouldn’t dally when it comes to tightening policy modestly,.McCafferty said he could not be certain about whether to vote again for a rate rise until May’s policy meeting, but there had been no data or Brexit developments so far to make him think he was wrong in March to vote to raise rates to 0.75 percent.The former chief economic adviser to the Confederation of British Industry has been in the minority of BoE policymakers pushing for a rate hike previously in the past four years.While the BoE had been wrong in the past about wages finally gaining momentum, labour market surveys so far this year showed that the recent recovery in the headline rate of growth of pay to nearly 3 percent looked more sustainable this time, he said.Often called one of the BoE’s most hawkish policymakers, McCafferty said there had been a case for following up November’s rate move with another hike as early as February.But he held off to avoid surprising households who had been told by the BoE that it plans to raise rates only gradually...8.28am BSTMining shares are leading the way in London, while news that US regulators have approved Bayer’s takeover of Monsanto and a positive update from LVMH have also helped sentiment.But ahead of the start of the US reporting season, the main support for the market in early trading is Chinese president Xi’s speech at Boao. Kit Juckes at Societe Generale said:What President Xi didn’t say at the Boao Forum matters more than what he did. There are plenty of reforms to come, including reduced auto tariffs, but no details. But the lack of any ramping-up of the US/Chinese trade-war-by-rhetoric was the key for equities to rally.President Xi’s speech overnight appears to have struck the right tone, providing some relief for investors who have been buffeted by the recent war of words between Trump and China over trade. While there was already an overwhelming sense that Chinese officials were keen to achieve a negotiated settlement before the proposed tariffs do any lasting damage to either the Chinese or US economies, today’s speech was the clearest indication yet that China is prepared to take concrete steps to address some of Trump’s chief criticisms. The big question is whether President Trump will now take the olive branch offered by Xi’s conciliatory approach and dial down the rhetoric from his side too.Corporate profits have taken a back seat to trade tensions and increased volatility over the past few weeks, but as the US earnings season starts in earnest this week, they will take on huge significance. Equities received a huge boost when the US tax reform bill was signed into law in December and investors will want to see that this is feeding through to the bottom line to justify their continued faith. A good earnings season would do a lot to regain some equilibrium and provide some much-needed relief and calm for beleaguered investors.8.05am BSTAs fears of a trade war between China and the US ease - for the moment - after president Xi’s speech overnight, European markets have opened in a positive mood.The FTSE 100 is up 0.5% or 41 points, while Germany’s Dax has added just over 1%, France’s Cac has climbed 0.8% and Spain’s Ibex is 0.6% better.7.58am BSTMore fallout from the US imposition of sanctions on various Russian companies.Glencore, which has various contracts with Russia’s Rusal for the purchase of aluminium, says it is now evaluating these contracts.7.41am BSTGood morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.A keynote speech by Chinese president Xi Jinping at the Boao Asian forum overnight has eased some of the concerns about a possible trade war with the US.When a car is sent to the United States from China, there is a Tariff to be paid of 2 1/2%. When a car is sent to China from the United States, there is a Tariff to be paid of 25%. Does that sound like free or fair trade. No, it sounds like STUPID TRADE - going on for years!Related: Xi Jinping warns against 'arrogance' amid threat of trade war with USEuropean Opening Calls:#FTSE 7235 +0.56%#DAX 12373 +0.91%#CAC 5314 +0.95%#MIB 23253 +0.86%#IBEX 9819 +0.79%Once again it is the background noise that is driving short term sentiment with big swings intraday making the price action difficult to predict. [Xi’s] pledges to open up China’s economy and lower import tariffs, while nothing particularly new, sent Asia markets higher and are likely to translate into a positive European open this morning. Whether they translate into anything other than words is another story but for now they appear to signal a willingness for China to move forward the discussions on trade with the US.The raid was in connection with payments to adult star Stormy Daniels and conducted by the Justice Department with help from a referral from the Mueller investigation. The escalation that people are watching out for is that Trump responds by firing Robert Mueller. Political fireworks at home would put extra pressure on delicate trade negotiations. Continue reading...

Barclays analysts compare speculation in digital currency to spread of infectious diseaseThe rise of bitcoin has comparisons with the spread of an infectious disease, according to economists who argue the digital currency may have peaked in value as more consumers become immune to its appeal.Analysts at Barclays said the soaring value of the digital currency last year, when prices rose by more than 900%, was helped by new buyers being “infected” by the euphoria surrounding bitcoin. The price has since crashed from almost $20,000 before Christmas to less than $7,000.

The US trade barriers list shows that Liam Fox could let more than just chlorinated chicken into the UK. The public deserve to know the detailsRelated: Keep close trade ties with EU post-Brexit, UK government warnedThe British public is already scared about a trade deal with the US. They don’t care for chickens washed in chlorine, nor for cows stuffed with hormones. But this week, an epic US document setting out the barriers to foreign trade it would like to remove shows that these concerns are just the tip of the iceberg.Related: Nigel Farage is no fisherman’s friend: he’s been ignoring them for years | Fay SchopenA whopping 82% of Brits would rather not have a trade deal with the US than sacrifice decent food standards Continue reading...

A new IMF report shows some stark gender trends in European and US workforce, including one that follows virtual reality in a new Spielberg film

Fund’s report advises advanced economies against greater controls on migrationThe International Monetary Fund has said advanced economies such as Britain, the US and Japan risk being overwhelmed by their ageing populations, and calls on them to throw open their borders to more migrant workers in response.Within the next few decades, working-age adults will need to support double the number of elderly people than they do now, putting immense pressure on welfare systems and wiping out as much as 3% of potential economic output by 2050, the IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook report.What is the IMF? Continue reading...

Rouble suffers biggest daily fall for over three years and shares in Oleg Deripaska’s firms slumpThe Trump administration’s new sanctions on Russian oligarchs and top government officials began to bite on Monday as the rouble suffered its biggest daily fall in more than three years, the main Russian stock index slumped and investors dumped shares in businesses controlled by Oleg Deripaska.Russia’s currency briefly dipped more than 4% before recovering slightly to trade at 60.42 to the dollar on Monday evening, down 3.8%, its biggest daily percentage fall since January 2015.Related: Trump administration hits 24 Russians with sanctions over 'malign activity' Continue reading...

Investors hope for talks to resolve trade dispute, while new figures on UK housing show better than expected performance in March3.06pm BSTStock markets are having a nervy day, as investors try and come to terms with the current state of the trade dispute between the US and China.A seemingly conciliatory tweet from President Trump over the weekend gave some grounds for optimism that the tit-for-tat tariffs may not turn into a full blown trade war. But today Trump was back on the attack again, calling the current trade practices “stupid.”3.05pm BSTThe International Monetary Fund has warned of a demographic timebomb for developed economies such as Britain, the USA and Japan that will require a radical rethink for immigration policies in response.Identifying a mounting threat to economic growth and the welfare systems of the world’s most advanced countries, the fund said increasing numbers of baby boomers reaching retirement could potentially “overwhelm” these countries.

Business outlook seen as promising despite concerns over rising interest rates and tougher tech regulationEuropean flotations have made a strong start to the year despite the current market uncertainty brought on by a possible trade war between the US and China, rising interest rates and the prospect of tougher regulation on tech firms.Across Europe, the first quarter of the year recorded 67 initial public offerings (IPOs) raising a total of €12.5bn (£10.8bn), up from 54 and €4.6bn in the same period in 2017, according to PWC’s latest survey of flotations. Continue reading...

After the EU transition deal UK firms now rank weak domestic demand as a more pressing problem, says DeloitteBrexit has fallen into second place as the most significant risk facing company bosses for the first time since the EU referendum, as weak domestic growth saps demand for their goods and services.According to a Deloitte survey of chief financial officers (CFOs) at some of the UK’s biggest businesses, companies are now less pessimistic about Brexit after ministers agreed the terms of a transition period with Brussels to smooth Britain’s exit from the EU.

The single market benefits manufacturers far more than providers of services. Guess which Britain excels inAt the time it was big, big news. Three days before the general election, official figures showed that Britain’s trade had taken a marked turn for the worse. Government claims that the economy was healthy took a knock.That was June 1970, a time when the size of Britain’s trade gap was front page stuff. Headlines screamed about the UK being back in the red. The TV news bulletins were full of it. Harold Wilson is supposed to have blamed it – along with England’s defeat by West Germany in the World Cup – for his unexpected defeat at the hands of Ted Heath the following Thursday. All this for a trade deficit of just £31m, distorted by the arrival in Britain of a couple of Boeing’s new jumbo jets.Productivity is an economic measure of the efficiency of a workforce. It typically measures the level of output per hour of work, or per worker. Continue reading...

A lesson for Brexit: the postwar Labour government was elected, re-elected and humiliated in the space of six years. Each time, the people ‘spoke’On 5 July 1945, the British people “spoke”. Churchill had been a great war leader, but memories of the unemployment and penury of the interwar years were strong. Labour was elected by a resounding majority. On 23 February 1950, the Attlee government went to the country, and, again, the people “spoke”. The government was re-elected.Although that immediate postwar Attlee government has been almost sanctified by modern historians, things were rough for it most of the time. The largely Conservative press attacked many of the social reforms that were subsequently accepted by the Tory party.How long will it be before the government – and the Labour party – realise that our EU partners mean what they say? Continue reading...

World leaders urged to act as anger over inequality reaches a ‘tipping point’The world’s richest 1% are on course to control as much as two-thirds of the world’s wealth by 2030, according to a shocking analysis that has lead to a cross-party call for action.World leaders are being warned that the continued accumulation of wealth at the top will fuel growing distrust and anger over the coming decade unless action is taken to restore the balance. Continue reading...

Dow closes down 572 points as Beijing says it will fight back against new Trump proposalsThe war of words between the Trump administration and China over trade has escalated after Beijing threatened to fight back “at any cost” against new US proposals for an additional $100bn (£71bn) in tariffs.Chinese officials said on Friday they would “definitely fight back firmly” should the US persist in using “protectionism”, in a warning issued hours after President Trump unexpectedly suggested imposing extra trade tariffs on goods shipped from China to the US – on top of the $50bn worth of tariffs announced last month.Related: US stock markets sink on China trade war fearsChina, which is a great economic power, is considered a Developing Nation within the World Trade Organization. They therefore get tremendous perks and advantages, especially over the U.S. Does anybody think this is fair. We were badly represented. The WTO is unfair to U.S. Continue reading...

The major indexes as well as tech stocks tumbled despite Trump officials downplaying any likelihood new tariffs would be enactedInvestors fled US stocks on Friday after Donald Trump threatened more tariffs against Chinese goods, China vowed to battle “to the end” and US employment data missed analysts’ expectations.Related: China threatens 'Trump country' with retaliatory tariffs ahead of midterms Continue reading...

Following a shocking rise in violence in London in which four of his constituents died, the Tottenham MP is calling for politicians to admit the ‘war on drugs’ has failed – and that black lives matterDavid Lammy is one of those politicians whose public profile has never correlated with his position in his party, or converted into frontbench power, and this sort of maverick celebrity operator tends to attract suspicion. Elected to represent Tottenham 18 years ago, the 46-year-old has at various key moments – the Grenfell fire, the London riots – distinguished himself in the public’s affection by seizing individual ownership of the agenda. To some, particularly in Westminster, this highly personalised brand of political identity is opportunistic self-promotion, artfully disguised as heroism.To me, his politics look sincere and principled, I’ve just never been entirely sure what they are. He used to joke: “I’m not Blair, I’m not Brown, I’m just black.” And he has successfully eluded all association with any ideological faction with such dexterity that he can sometimes look a bit slippery, as if his public persona is contingent on whatever strategy he has devised to please his audience.Related: Teenage girl shot dead in Tottenham, north LondonRelated: London teenager fatally stabbed named as Israel Ogunsola Continue reading...

As economists scramble to find answers, game theory rather than history may be the best guideThe trade confrontation between the United States and China is heating up. After firing an opening salvo of steep tariffs on steel and aluminium, the US administration has released a plan for a 25% tariff on 1,333 Chinese imports – worth about $50bn (£35bn) last year – to punish China for what it views as decades of intellectual property theft. China has fired back with a plan to slap 25% levies on a range of US goods, also worth about $50bn. In response to what he labels “unfair retaliation,” President Donald Trump is now said to be considering yet another set of tariffs, covering another $100bn worth of imports from China. Economists and market analysts are scrambling to figure out what will come next.One might be tempted to rely on historical experience. But, given today’s economic, political and social conditions, history is likely to be a poor guide. More useful insights come from game theory, which can help us to determine whether this exchange of tariffs will ultimately amount to strategic posturing that leads to a more “cooperative game” (freer and fairer trade), or develop into a wider “non-cooperative game” (an outright trade war). The answer will have significant consequences for the economic and policy outlook, and markets prospects. Continue reading...

The US president has raised the stakes again with fresh tariff threats. But trade with China is not the same thing as a buying real estateTrade wars do not start by accident. If the US and China contrive to launch a new era of tit-for-tat protectionism to match that last seen in the 1930s it will be because of political decisions taken in Washington and Beijing by those with a full understanding of the consequences of their action. Comparisons with the drift to war in the summer of 1914 are wide of the mark.Despite announcing plans for 25% tariffs on a small range of US imports this week, China has made clear that it wants to avoid a trade war. It will be happy to disarm if Donald Trump removes his threatened action against $50bn of Chinese goods. But Mr Trump is now threatening to escalate the battle with another $100bn of tariffs. The financial markets have been by turns spooked, then calmed, then alarmed again. Continue reading...

Data for final six months of 2017 show strongest economic growth, but worker efficiency languishedThe productivity of British workers in the second half of 2017 rose at the fastest rate since before the financial crisis, handing a rare boost to the government.Labour productivity, or economic output per hour of work, rose by 0.7% in the three months to December, marking the second consecutive quarter for positive growth, the Office for National Statistics said. Together, the two periods showed the strongest growth rate seen since the second half of 2005.

US president instructs trade agency to mull options as onlookers fear tit-for-tat will become full-blown trade war