For ‘record employment’, read low wages, low productivity, low investment. The idea of happy zero-hours workers is for the birdsGetting on for one million people in Britain wait each day for a text or a phone call to let them know whether an employer has work for them. Twenty years ago few had heard of zero-hour contracts, but the number of workers covered by them has increased more than fourfold since the recession of a decade ago.Related: More than 900,000 UK workers now on zero-hours contractsThe reason for weak consumer spending and the flat housing market is wages not keeping pace with inflationRelated: Record 60% of Britons in poverty are in working families – study Continue reading...

Andy Haldane says early mental health intervention could lead to sixfold return on investmentThe chief economist at the Bank of England has backed the use of counselling services for primary school children, arguing there is a strong economic case for investment in early intervention to improve mental health in later life.Andy Haldane, who is more commonly found grappling with interest rates and quantitative easing, has helped produce a report that suggests early mental health intervention in primary schools could lead to a sixfold return on the investment. Continue reading...

Number of vehicles built in March fell 13%, compared with a year ago, to 141,471Car production in Britain has experienced a double-digit slump amid concern over falling diesel sales and the impact of Brexit on exports.The performance last month, which was partly weather related, prompted the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) to repeat its call for continued membership of the EU customs union. Continue reading...

An obsession with maintaining high land and house prices has created a vicious class system, writes DBC Reed; notions of a universal basic income should be dropped for job guarantees, says Mike Ellwood; plus letters from David Murray and Derrick JoadIf there is any connecting theme in the continuous run of current scandals (Turn our anger into action with a summer of solidarity, 24 April), it is the breakdown of the old pre-Thatcher mixed economy, where there was a bipartisan focus on maintaining full employment. Now there is, instead, an obsession with maintaining high land and house prices – what some land economists call homeownerism – which has created a vicious class system, whereby at one end of a Midland village you have young couples paying £800 a month in house rent, and at the other older people profiteering from the rents of six such houses.No movement concerned with social justice can ignore this scam. It is corrupt because people are bribed by continuously rising untaxed capital gains into voting for rightwing parties. It deprives the young of spending power forgone in rents and high mortgages which, as Henry George showed, prevented people from moving where there was new work and affording any more than the basics.

In England’s poorest town, schools are teaching their children to embrace a healthy diet. Our new economics series looks at the lessons from Oldham

President reiterates plan to impose tariffs of up to $100bn more on Chinese goodsDonald Trump has said he is sending treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin to China for talks as the two countries deal with tensions over trade and intellectual property.Trump said during a White House news conference with President Emmanuel Macron of France that the US and China were “very serious” about trade issues and reiterated his plans to impose tariffs of up to $100bn more on Chinese goods.Related: Trump plays down US-China trade war concerns: ‘When you’re $500bn down you can’t lose’ Continue reading...

Chancellor may ease austerity as public sector net borrowing falls to £42.6bn for the last financial yearBritain’s budget deficit has dropped to the lowest level since before the financial crisis, laying the ground for Philip Hammond to raise government spending on public services later this year.The Office for National Statistics said public sector net borrowing, excluding the state-owned banks, dropped by £3.5bn to £42.6bn in the last financial year, cutting the budget deficit to the lowest level since the year ending March 2007.

EY Item Club says uninspiring economy is ‘chugging along’ as inflation continues to dropThe UK economy is set for another year of uninspiring growth in 2018, according to the latest forecasts from the EY Item Club.This week’s first-quarter GDP figures are expected to show growth of just 0.2%-0.3%, according to EY Item Club economists, mainly due to the severe weather the hit the country at the end of February and beginning of March. This compares to quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.4% in the final three months of 2017.Related: Slow UK economic growth is not just a cold weather trend | Larry Elliott Continue reading...

Thinktank warns of a ‘car crash’ as low interest rates mean further cuts to stimulate demand would not be an optionThe Bank of England is “dangerously ill-equipped” to avert the next recession and remains mired fighting the last downturn, according to a report calling for the introduction of radical new policy tools.According to the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR), the odds of a recession once every 10 to 15 years mean Threadneedle Street needs additional firepower for when the economy next begins to falter.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development keen to work with countries committed to market economicsA bank originally set up to help countries of the former Soviet bloc is poised to extend its operations into sub-Saharan Africa in order to speed up progress in meeting ambitious development goals set by the United Nations.Sir Suma Chakrabarti, the president of the London-based European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, said his organisation had the money and the expertise to stimulate the growth of strong private sectors in some of the world’s poorest countries.Related: Global debt now worse than before financial crisis, says IMF Continue reading...

G7 nations plus Austria and Czech Republic face tests to prevent money launderingThe City of London will come under the spotlight of the International Monetary Fund as part of a crackdown on corruption that will investigate whether Britain and other rich countries are taking tough enough action against bribery and money laundering.In a hardening of its approach, the IMF said it needed to look at those giving bribes and financial centres that laundered dirty money as well as improving the existing clampdown on wrongdoing in poor countries. Continue reading...

The president’s rejection of multilateralism is risky but our 70-year-old rule-based system is far from perfectDonald Trump is playing with fire. That thought permeated last week’s spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Washington.The US president’s go-it-alone approach – especially in the field of trade – has certainly shaken things up. It is not just the threat of tariffs, nor that the US has brought the dispute settlement system at the World Trade Organisation to a standstill. Continue reading...

Koji Tsuruoka expected a quiet posting in a stable country. Then Brexit happened. He tells the Observer of his fears and hopes for manufacturing, trade and investmentKoji Tsuruoka is sipping green tea in Japan’s splendid embassy in Mayfair, recalling how his first two years as Japan’s ambassador to the UK have not gone quite according to plan. At least, they haven’t turned out how his predecessors assured him they would. One after another, ex-ambassadors advised him, before he took up the position on 6 June 2016, that he would find the UK very “stable”, and its politics “very predictable”.The attractions of London’s ballet scene, opera and art galleries quickly lured him into thinking it would be “an excellent place to conclude my 40-plus years of diplomatic service in a very comfortable and quiet environment”. British politicians and civil servants he met early on were almost all sure the EU referendum would pass peacefully by. “Almost 99% said that you don’t have to worry because the British people don’t make adventurous decisions. They said it was irrational to leave because of the economic conditions… And you know what happened.”Related: Brexit could cut manufacturing exports by a third, experts warn Continue reading...

The inspiration the bard drew from the continent emphasises, whatever Brexiters might say, the inseparability of our historyWe know that the Brexiters want to recapture a lost Britain; and few Britons can rival William Shakespeare in the patriotism stakes.It intrigued me, therefore, to hear the following from a Shakespearean scholar who recently delivered a Bardic talk in – where else? – Stratford-upon-Avon. Stratford-upon-Avon is as near to Middle England as any Brexiter could wish.There is much talk of 'globalisation', but the key economic development of the British economy has been Europeanisation Continue reading...

Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, suggests expectations that UK interest rates will rise in May could be overblown. But his colleague Michael Saunders says the economy no longer needs as much stimulus

Chancellor gives upbeat assessment of state of UK economy at IMF meetingA damaging haemorrhage of jobs from the City has been averted by the signing of a Brexit transition agreement between the UK and the EU, according to an upbeat assessment of the economy’s prospects from Philip Hammond.Speaking in Washington, the chancellor said the mood among big US-owned financial institutions was much more positive than it had been before London and Brussels agreed to a 21-month implementation period after the UK officially leaves the EU next March.Related: It's time to stop believing in these 'magic' Brexit solutionsWhat is the IMF? Continue reading...

Protectionism is a logical response to national insecurity, but it doesn’t have to be left to the right, suggests Colin Hines, while David Murray considers rising world debtThere is a link between your warning that the International Monetary Fund needs to change policy to ensure that the benefits of global economic activities are shared by the majority (Editorial, 20 April) and Yanis Varoufakis’s gung-ho ode to The Communist Manifesto (The long read, 20 April).It is clear that the economic insecurity inherent in ever more open borders, and the fetishism of exports and international competitiveness, has generated a backlash, and that era is coming to an end. However, the only ones who have turned this crashingly obvious downside of free markets to their own political advantage are the likes of America First Donald Trump, France First Marine Le Pen and Hungary First Viktor Orbán. Continue reading...

Michael Saunders, a member of monetary policy committee, says rates should move up from 0.5%Fears of a slowdown triggered by heavy snowfall have been overblown, according to a Bank of England policymaker, who has said the UK economy could withstand interest rates reaching as high as 2% within the next few years.Michael Saunders, a member of the monetary policy committee, said the Bank should move to raise interest rates from the current level of 0.5%.

Nobel prize-winning economist says the argument in favour of cutting company tax to increase wages is a spurious one• Sign up to receive the top stories in Australia every day at noon Ask Nobel prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz for his thoughts on the Turnbull government’s arguments that cutting the company tax will lead to strong investment and higher wages, and he doesn’t mince words: “I don’t think there’s any validity in it.“Firms locate in countries because of the quality of the infrastructure, the quality of the educated labour force, a whole set of aspects of the society and economy, and the tax rate is well down the list of concerns.”Related: Black Lives Matter in Australia: wherever black people are, there is racism – and resistance[Company tax cuts are] evidence of an economic system designed to help companies rather than increase general wellbeingRelated: Business's 'Kumbaya' promises show how weak the need for company tax cuts is | Greg JerichoYou feel the fear [the business community] have, the fear to criticise him unless they’ll unleash a wave of tweetsRelated: Malcolm Turnbull defiantly sticks to business tax cut Continue reading...

Biggest decisions in next few years will be in response to Brexit negotiations, says CarneyExpectations that UK interest rates will rise in May could be overblown, the governor of the Bank of England has indicated.Mark Carney said that while more rate increases would be coming over the next few years, some of the recent economic data had been softer and inflation had fallen faster than the Bank’s policymakers were predicting in February. Continue reading...

The IMF says it wants growth in the post-recession world to be more inclusive. Why does it advocate austerity for crisis-hit economies?It is now 10 years since the global economy was convulsed by the most serious crisis since the 1930s, and there is a sense of deja vu as finance ministers and central bank governors gather in Washington for this week’s spring meeting of the International Monetary Fund. As was the case before 2008, growth looks brittle. Debt levels in the west, according to the IMF’s latest fiscal monitor, have not been higher than they are today since the second world war. In emerging markets, they are at levels typically associated with the sort of problems that befell Latin America in the 1980s.In another echo of a decade ago, the US is once again becoming the global consumer of last resort. The generalised upswing in the global economy is in no small part due to the world’s biggest economy sucking in imports. Global imbalances between countries running surpluses and those running deficits – a warning sign of trouble ahead in the mid-2000s – are back. Donald Trump’s fiscal policy is certain to make the global imbalances worse. The IMF thinks the extra demand stimulated by the president’s package of tax cuts and extra spending will suck in imports and boost an already high US current account deficit by $150bn in 2019. Continue reading...

Christine Lagarde feels ‘too much concentration in hands of the few’ does not help economyThe head of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, has expressed concern about the market power wielded by the US technology giants and called for more competition to protect economies and individuals.Speaking at a press conference to mark the start of the IMF’s spring meeting in Washington, Lagarde said breaking up companies was not the solution, but added that her organisation was monitoring their impact on prosperity, financial stability and the workplace.Related: Bitcoin tools could make finance system safer, says IMF boss Continue reading...

The risks ahead include higher debt levels and public scepticism about our policymakers’ ability to generate growth• Sign up to receive the latest Australian opinion pieces every weekdayThe latest IMF world economic outlook released yesterday contains the usual mix of good news and bad news so beloved of economists. But amid the projections for GDP growth the IMF delivers not only some warnings about the risks ahead, but also a slap to governments around the world who are now seeing the chickens of decades of policy that has driven inequality coming home to roost.Related: As the service sector overtakes blue-collar jobs, we must mind the wage gap | Greg JerichoRelated: The jobs boom continues – but not for everyone | Greg Jericho Continue reading...

Unexpected decline knocked sterling down against dollar and throws prospects of interest rate rise into doubtUK inflation unexpectedly fell last month to its lowest level in a year, raising questions over whether the Bank of England will raise interest rates next month.In the latest sign of the waning impact of the Brexit vote on household finances, the consumer price index (CPI) dropped to 2.5% in March, according to the Office for National Statistics. Economists had expected the annual rate of growth in prices to remain unchanged at 2.7%.

Surprise drop in UK inflation takes pressure off the Bank of England to raise interest rates in May

Fund warns all economies look vulnerable as low interest rates lead to debt worth 225% of GDPThe global economy is more deeply indebted than before the financial crisis and countries need to take immediate action to improve their finances before the next downturn, the International Monetary Fund has said.The IMF said a prolonged period of low interest rates had stimulated a build-up of debt worth 225% of world GDP in 2016, 12 points above the previous record level reached in 2009. Continue reading...

Global Future finds Theresa May’s preferred bespoke deal would cost £615m a weekEach of the government’s four Brexit scenarios, including a bespoke deal, would leave Britain poorer and cost the taxpayer hundreds of millions of pounds each week, analysis has shown.The study for the thinktank Global Future by Jonathan Portes, a professor of economics and public policy at King’s College, London, found that a bespoke deal, the government’s preferred option, would have a net negative fiscal impact of about £40bn a year. Continue reading...

Lorraine Hewitt and Martin Cooper respond to a recent Guardian articleRhik Samadder’s view of landlords (Landlords are social parasites. They don’t deserve any awards, 16 April) does not reflect the true situation and is not the balanced reporting normally associated with the Guardian.We agree there are certainly many bad landlords, but there are also good ones. Bitter experience taught us that when landlords have bad tenants there is little true protection for the landlord. Not all landlords are raking in money from poor quality housing. Continue reading...

Parent company unveils 3% sales rise despite refusal to sell online and trouble at rivalsPrimark’s owners said the UK high street was “not remotely dead” as the cut-price fashion chain revealed sales growth and plans for new stores despite troubles at many of its rivals.The retailer, which does not sell online and so misses the big consumer switch towards buying from laptops, tablets and phones, nevertheless said sales rose 3% at established UK stores in the six months to 3 March.Retailers that have gone bust 2017-18 Continue reading...

Squeeze on real earnings eases as unemployment rate falls unexpectedly to 4.2%British workers have seen their first real pay rise in a year, as average wage growth overcomes the fading inflationary effects of the Brexit vote.Bringing to an end 12 months of falling living standards, the latest snapshot of Britain’s job market from the Office for National Statistics showed pay rising above inflation for the first time since January 2017.

Global economy at risk from US-China tariff row and rise of protectionism, report says

Governments warned that protectionism and fear of globalisation will disrupt growthDon’t be fooled. That was the simple message from the International Monetary Fund to policymakers as it boosted its forecasts for the global economy for both 2018 and 2019.Sooner rather than later, the IMF believes, the recovery will peter out.

Shoe shops and banks may be dying out but the ‘experience economy’ offers a future for town centres. They must grasp itIs it really goodbye shop? This has been another terrible month for retailing. Monday’s figures show March footfall down 6% on last year, and almost 9% down in high streets. Clothing is in freefall, down 20%. My two local high streets – one rich, one poor – both look as if they’ve been hit by the plague, with naked windows pockmarked by “For Sale” signs.Toys R Us, BHS and Maplin have gone. We hear of closures from Mothercare, Homebase, House of Fraser, even M&S. Local data shows a net 1,700 shops shut last year. Paula Nickolds of mighty John Lewis said last week that this is her “toughest time in 25 years in the industry”, adding of her own business, “we need to reinvent”.Related: UK retailers see 6% drop in shopper numbers in MarchRelated: Slow UK economic growth is not just a cold weather trend | Larry Elliott Continue reading...

Sterling rises above $1.43 ahead of key UK data this week, while rouble stabilises following steep drop earlier. Markets tense after western air strikes on Syria and ahead of anticipated new US sanctions against Russia2.49pm BSTWall Street has opened higher, as fears of an escalating conflict in Syria faded.2.27pm BSTSince Trump became president in January 2017, the dollar has weakened substantially against most major currencies, including China’s yuan and, until the US sanctions against Russia in the last few weeks, the rouble.Against the yuan, the dollar has fallen 8.6% since 20 January 2017, Reuters data show. It has risen 4.5% against the rouble, although it was down 4% against the Russian currency until new US sanctions on seven Russian oligarchs were announced 1 1/2 weeks ago.2.21pm BSTBack to currencies. US president Donald Trump has tweetedRussia and China are playing the Currency Devaluation game as the U.S. keeps raising interest rates. Not acceptable!1.59pm BSTIn Greece, the central government ran up a primary budget surplus of €2.3bn in the first three months of the year, beating its target, Reuters reports.

Quantitative easing succeeded in staving off disaster but it was not enough to regenerate a fair economy. This could have been achieved by a redistributive, expansionary fiscal policy which ministers were ideologically resistant toWhen running for the Labour leadership, Jeremy Corbyn wanted a “people’s quantitative easing” to boost the economy. It was frostily dismissed in 2015 as being forbidden by provisions in the Lisbon treaty. If we leave the European Union, those strictures will no longer apply. This is not to agitate on the side of Brexiters but to observe that the quiver of the argument against printing money might lose an arrow or two if we leave the EU. In fact, the Bank of England, while the UK was in the EU, did print hundreds of billions of pounds to avoid economic disaster. At the push of a button, the Bank conjured up £435bn to buy up gilts – government bonds – and exchange them for bank deposits. On the national balance sheet this sum is listed as debt, but it is not in the strictest sense because it is not owed to anyone. Turns out there is a magic money tree.Last week, Andy Haldane, the Bank’s chief economist, defended the Bank’s low interest rates and quantitative easing programme from critics, including the prime minister, who have said the policy rewarded those who had assets and penalised those who did not. Mr Haldane’s defence is that the public has yet to grasp how much worse the crisis would have been without QE. There’s a bit of truth on both sides. Having sold their gilts back to the Bank, investors bought up company stocks and bonds or property – sending prices to record highs – instead of creating new activity in the real economy, higher growth and jobs. Money from bond sales remained stuck in the banking system. The government could have corralled the private sector to make socially useful investment but ministers, antagonistic to the state, sat on their hands. The result was that the injection of money caused a stock-market boom in the financial economy, but on the real economy – the target of the policy – it had little effect. Continue reading...

Labour MPs co-author report urging public investment and a bigger role for unionsStronger trade unions, improved regional policy and an end to austerity should form part of a plan to return growth in living standards to its pre-crisis levels, according to a leading leftwing thinktank.Calling for a fairer tax system and a less flexible labour market, the Fabian Society said a comprehensive strategy was required to boost household incomes. Continue reading...

The problem for progressives is that neo-classical beliefs have taken politics to the rightYou can’t buck the market. The turn to the right taken by politics from the mid-1970s onwards was summed up in one phrase coined by Margaret Thatcher in 1988.

The work of Transparency International suggests British businesses need to be careful when looking beyond EuropeAs Britain bids farewell to the single market, plenty of businesses are looking further afield for export opportunities.Some are jumping aboard the trade missions organised by Liam Fox’s department for international trade, while others look to their local chambers of commerce to take them on visits to the far-flung nations trumpeted by Fox as among the fastest growing on the planet. It is an exciting prospect and one that holds out the prospect of replacing lost trade with the EU.Most corruption doesn’t make the headlines: it is more mundane, involving officials on low and middle incomes Continue reading...

There is good news for Christine Lagarde to celebrate at the spring meeting this week – but rising prosperity is not spreading to everyoneChristine Lagarde ought to be a happy woman. As she noted in a speech in Hong Kong last week, there is good economic news around the world. The US is operating at full employment, the upswing in Europe has spread across the continent, Japan is growing strongly and the outlook for Asia is bright.All the same, Lagarde has plenty to worry about as she prepares for this week’s half-yearly meeting of the International Monetary Fund, the organisation run by the former French finance minister. Her concerns can be summed up in five words: protectionism, unilateralism, war, debt and inequality. Continue reading...

Both organisations’ annual forums open this week against a backdrop of growing protectionism and rising violenceFrom Syria to social media, world leaders have many urgent matters to discuss when they congregate at international gatherings. But it is the threat to the world economy from Donald Trump’s trade dispute with China that is poised to dominate the annual spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank this week.Opening in Washington on Monday and hosted by the IMF, the meetings will be attended by leaders and central bankers, including Mark Carney of the Bank of England and the chancellor, Philip Hammond. Continue reading...

Readers respond to articles by Aditya Chakrabortty and Larry ElliottIt’s brilliant to read about the fantastic impact that social enterprises are having on Plymouth (Aditya Chakrabortty: A city that grows good companies, 11 April), allowing the city to grow and develop on its own terms. What is happening in Plymouth is inspiring, but it is important to note that, far from being contained to one city, social enterprises are part of a global movement. In the UK alone, there are tens of thousands of social enterprises – each one dedicated to putting people and communities ahead of private profit. Plymouth is one of 25 officially accredited Social Enterprise Places using social enterprise as a tool to create fairer, accountable and more sustainable economies.Far from being a new idea, social enterprises have proud origins. The Rochdale Pioneers used the principles of social enterprise to tackle the inequities of the Industrial Revolution and these same principles of fairness, equality and community benefit inform social enterprises today. Continue reading...

Carmaker blames Brexit and confusion over diesel policy. European stock markets rise as Syria tensions ease.2.37pm BSTWe are closing the blog and will be back on Monday. Have a good weekend!Jaguar Land Rover, Britain’s biggest carmaker, is to cut 1,000 contractor jobs in Solihull in the Midlands, after a fall in sales it attributed to uncertainty caused by the Brexit vote and the government’s diesel policy. Here is our story:Related: Jaguar Land Rover to announce 1,000 job cuts next week2.08pm BSTHere is the statement from Jaguar:As is standard business practice, Jaguar Land Rover regularly reviews its production schedules to ensure market demand is balanced globally.On Monday we will be cascading our 18/19 production plans for the next fiscal year to our workforce.2.07pm BSTJaguar Land Rover has confirmed that it will cut 1,000 contractor jobs at its Solihull factory. Britain’s biggest carmaker blamed a fall in sales due uncertainty caused by the Brexit vote along with confusion over the government’s diesel policy.1.52pm BSTBack to Jaguar Land Rover. ITV is reporting that Britain’s biggest carmaker will announce production cuts and 1,000 job losses on Monday, and blame Brexit.The company has told Reuters that it is making some adjustments to its production schedules and the level of agency staff. It added that it would unveil its 2018-19 production plans to its workforce on Monday. Jaguar also said that it regularly reviews its production schedules.1.49pm BSTWells Fargo faces a $1bn fine to settle outstanding regulatory investigations related to car insurance and mortgage lending abuses, the bank said. This means it may have to revise its quarterly results to reflect the final settlement.1.16pm BSTOver in the US, Citigroup has reported a 13% increase in quarterly profits, fuelled by lower taxes and higher revenues from consumer banking.The fourth-biggest American bank by assets said net income rose to $4.6bn in the first quarter to 31 March, compared with $4.1bn a year earlier. Earnings per share climbed to $1.68 from $1.35. Analysts had expected $1.61.1.10pm BSTIn January, Jaguar said it would temporarily scale back production at its factory in Halewood near Liverpool in the second quarter. The factory builds three Range Rover models and employs around 6,000 people. Britain’s biggest car manufacturer blamed faltering sales after the Brexit vote and a tax crackdown on diesel vehicles.Here’s our story at the timeRelated: Jaguar Land Rover to cut production at Halewood1.04pm BSTBreaking news: Joel Hills at ITV is tweeting that Jaguar Land Rover will cut production and around 1,000 jobs after a slump in sales. The company is expected to blame Brexit and the slump in demand for diesel vehicles.Jaguar Land Rover is set to cut production and jobs following a slump in sales. Formal announcement will be made on Monday. I’m told around 1000 roles will be affected and that JLR will blame Brexit and sharp fall in demand for diesel.1.03pm BSTMeanwhile, in Italy, the eurozone’s third-largest economy, talks to form a government are still deadlocked. President Sergio Mattarella has declared that there has been “no progress” after a second round of talks with political parties.12.07pm BSTJPMorgan Chase, the biggest US bank by assets, has kicked off the US bank reporting season with strong figures. It has posted a 35% jump in first-quarter profits, boosted by higher interest rates on loans and lower taxes.The bank’s net income rose to $8.7bn or $2.37 a share, in the three months to March from $6.5bn, or $1.65 a share, a year earlier. Analysts had pencilled in $2.28 a share.11.37am BSTFurther detail on the comments made by Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov at a press conference this morning, courtesy of Reuters. He said he hoped there would be no repeat of the experience of Libya and Iraq in the Syria conflict, in a veiled warning to US president Donald Trump.God forbid anything adventurous will be done in Syria following the Libyan and Iraqi experience.11.18am BSTOn a lighter note, the appointment of Goldman Sachs banker David Schwimmer as the new chief executive of the London Stock Exchange has prompted a lot of Friends jokes.As someone who’s constantly being asked on Twitter when the rest of the cast and I are going to do a reunion episode, my heart goes out to the new head of the Stock Exchange. pic.twitter.com/d6uSCdNytH11.11am BSTThere are some snaps on Reuters quoting the Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov as saying that the atmosphere around Syria is very alarming, and that ultimatums and threats do not help the dialogue. He also said that the channels of communication with the US are being used.#BREAKING Russian specialists found no trace of chemical attack in Syria's Douma: Foreign Minister Lavrov11.06am BSTGold prices are up for a second week as concerns over the conflict in Syria remain.While Donald Trump has back-pedalled on the threat of US missile strikes in Syria following last weekend’s chemical attack on civilians, the situation with Syria’s main ally Russia remains tense.Related: Syria crisis: Corbyn accuses May of waiting for Trump's instructions – live10.14am BSTAnd here are Mahony’s thoughts on China moving to trade deficit in March for the first time in a year.Chinese trade data has been the big focus for markets after the biggest economy in Asia posted its first dollar-denominated trade deficit in a year. A sizeable downward shift in Chinese exports will certainly provide heightened anxiety over where we go from here, with the threat of a trade war looming large over an economy which is still heavily reliant upon international demand for their products.10.10am BSTJoshua Mahony, market analyst at at online trading firm IG, has taken a closer look at the UK stock market and the pound.Sterling has hit 10-week highs against the dollar and 11-week highs against the euro, partly related to diverging interest rate expectations for the UK and the eurozone. The Bank of England is widely expected to raise interest rates next month.The FTSE has continued to underperform its peers this morning, with the index trading in the red despite gains across German, Spanish and French indices. Dovish minutes from the European Central Bank yesterday, coupled with a wider story of dollar weakness has ensured the pound continues to outperform against its main peers.With the pound hitting a two-month high against the dollar and ten-month high against the euro, it comes as no surprise that the internationally focused FTSE 100 suffers, while the domestically focused FTSE 250 joins its European counterparts in the green.10.06am BSTIn other data just out, the eurozone’s trade surplus increased to €21bn in February from €20.2bn in January. Exports in the 19 countries sharing the euro declined by 2.3% but imports fell more, by 3.1%, month on month, according to the European Union’s statistics office Eurostat.10.01am BSTThe euro is broadly unchanged versus the dollar after final German inflation figures met economists’ expectations. In March, German inflation rose to a 1.6% annual rate from 1.4%. Spanish inflation also increased, to a four-month high of 1.2%, as did French CPI, which was released yesterday. It was confirmed at a 5 1/2 year high of 1.7% in March.#Spain #CPI #inflation inches up to 1.2% y/y in March

The economy is growing but our paychecks are not. That’s because employers have, over decades, built a political apparatus to hold down pay

The US president tweets confirmation that the US could rejoin the Pacific rim pact, a deal he has described as ‘horrible’Donald Trump has said he would lead America back into the controversial Trans Pacific Partnership trade pact – but only if he was offered a better deal than that negotiated by the Obama administration.After reports that he was reconsidering his decision to pull out of the pact, Trump tweeted on Thursday night that he would only do so if he was offered improved terms from the 11 existing signatories, who include Japan, Australia and Canada.Related: Is Trump right about free trade or is there a progressive alternative? | Jim StanfordWould only join TPP if the deal were substantially better than the deal offered to Pres. Obama. We already have BILATERAL deals with six of the eleven nations in TPP, and are working to make a deal with the biggest of those nations, Japan, who has hit us hard on trade for years! Continue reading...

Trump flayed the deal as ‘one of the worst’ during his campaign but is reportedly ordering advisers to take another look

Stocks venture into positive territory after Donald Trump tweets a military strike against Syria ‘could be very soon or not so soon at all’2.53pm BSTIt is time to close the blog for the day. We’ll be back tomorrow. Thank you for all your comments and good-bye. Here’s a quick summary of today’s main developments.Global stock markets are rising after Donald Trump toned down his threats of missile strikes in Syria.2.41pm BSTIn Europe, stock markets are also pushing higher.2.38pm BSTWall Street has opened higher, on the back of expectations that lower US corporate taxes will boost company earnings alongside easing tensions over the Syria conflict.12.56pm BSTWall Street futures are edging higher, supported by expectations of strong corporate profits as the first-quarter earnings season gets under way and easing geopolitical tensions over Syria.Analysts are expecting quarterly profits at S&P 500 companies to be 18.5% higher than a year ago, the biggest gain in seven years, according to a Thomson Reuters poll.12.45pm BSTThe Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development – the west’s leading economic think tank – has called on governments to use inheritance tax to reduce wealth inequality.Related: Use inheritance tax to tackle inequality of wealth, says OECD12.31pm BSTEuropean stock markets have ventured into positive territory, as tensions eased in the Middle East. Donald Trump sent a new tweet, saying a military strike against Syria after a suspected chemical weapons attack on civilians “could be very soon or not so soon at all”.Never said when an attack on Syria would take place. Could be very soon or not so soon at all! In any event, the United States, under my Administration, has done a great job of ridding the region of ISIS. Where is our “Thank you America?”12.23pm BSTHere is our full story on IAG’s potential bid for low-cost carrier Norwegian.Related: British Airways owner to make bid for transatlantic rival Norwegian12.20pm BSTMichael Hewson at CMC Markets UK has had a closer look at Norwegian, which has undergone an “explosive growth path” in the past few years - raising concerns that the airline might be overextending itself.

Staff to be balloted over chain’s plan to give service charge cash to kitchen staff in lieu of pay riseTGI Friday’s is facing the first strike over tips in the UK in an escalation of a row between waiters and the restaurant chain.In February the casual dining chain, which has 83 outlets, proposed redistributing 40% of service charge payments paid on credit and debit cards to back-of-house employees, including kitchen staff, in lieu of a wage increase. Continue reading...

A frozen February hampered the building and retail industry, but momentum has slowed by sterling’s rise, betting against Brexit, and weak manufacturing

Manufacturing output drops for the first time in a year and construction down sharply for a second month while trade deficit narrows3.03pm BSTOn this note, we are closing the blog for the day.A tweet from Donald Trump warning Russia to get ready for US missile strikes against its ally Syria sent the Russian rouble down 2.5% to its lowest level since November 2016.

Expected growth of 0.2% for February turns into 0.2% decline, ONS data showsEconomic growth in the UK is expected to have fallen by half in the opening months of the year, one of Britain’s leading forecasting bodies has said, amid renewed concerns for the health of the economy.The National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said growth was set to fall to 0.2% in the first quarter of 2018 from 0.4% in the final three months of last year, when the economy enjoyed a mini-recovery despite an overall slowdown in 2017 triggered by the Brexit vote. Continue reading...