Official Receiver says vast majority of companies who used Carillion’s services want to keep paying ‘in the interim’

Since the 2011 uprising, the IMF – backed by the G8 – has imposed economic reforms on Tunisia, at a cost to ordinary peopleTunisia has been facing protests across the country at price and tax rises since 3 January – the anniversary of the “bread riots” which occurred in 1984 under the Habib Bourguiba regime. As with the current unrest, that uprising was triggered by an intervention into the country’s affairs by international financial institutions, and the subsequent shock to the livelihoods of Tunisians – specifically, an increase in bread and grain prices following the adoption of an IMF plan.Related: The Guardian view on Tunisia unrest: riots redux? | Editorial Continue reading...

EU ruling follows claims G30 group has too much influence with ECB president as memberThe president of the European Central Bank has been told by the EU’s watchdog he should drop his membership of a secretive club of corporate bankers, after claims the group had been given an inside seat from which it could influence key policies.Following a year-long investigation, Mario Draghi was informed on Wednesday by the European ombudsman, Emily O’Reilly, that his close relationship with the Washington-based G30 group threatened the reputation of the bank, despite his assurances to the contrary. Continue reading...

Thousands of businesses across sectors need to find ways to cut costs to survive beyond 12 months, warns insolvency specialistAlmost half a million UK businesses have started 2018 in significant financial distress, according to insolvency specialists.In its latest “red flag alert”, Begbies Traynor said firms across all UK regions and sectors were feeling the repercussions of higher inflation, rising interest rates, growing business uncertainty, and weaker consumer spending. Continue reading...

What to do when our economy benefits only the few, but politicians seem powerless to change it? This new series, called the Alternatives, follows communities who are working out their own answersThis is the age of the zombie. The undead maraud around our popular culture. Stick on the telly, and they’re attacking Jon Snow in Game of Thrones. At the cinema, reanimated carcasses lurch through everything from Resident Evil to World War Z. The headlines might burst with blundering boastful strongmen, but our nightmares are full of blank-eyed walking corpses.Unthinking, unquestioning, neither alive nor dead, the zombie is horrific. It is also us.What is austerity?Related: A Labour council attacking its own people? This is regeneration gone bad | Aditya ChakraborttyThe nurse at the food bank, the council employee in a homeless shelter: these political actors are new Continue reading...

Government under pressure over handling of Carillion’s collapse, as suppliers cut jobs and creditors face huge losses

Department asks high court for ‘direct review’ of ruling that temporarily blocks Trump administration from phasing out DacaThe Department of Justice said on Tuesday it is appealing against a federal judge’s ruling that temporarily blocked the Trump administration from phasing out the Obama-era program granting protections to young, undocumented immigrants – and asking the supreme court to intervene.

US share index rises 1,000 points in 12 days – but sceptics warn rise could be last hurrah before a crashThe Dow Jones Industrial Average has topped the 26,000 mark for the first time, a new landmark in the Wall Street stock market boom that has gathered pace since the new year.The leading index of US shares has risen 1,000 points in just 12 days – and six stock market trading sessions, given that Wall Street was closed for Martin Luther King Jr Day on Monday – fuelled by an upswing in the global economy and the prospect of bumper company earnings thanks to Donald Trump’s corporate tax cuts.Related: 'Melt-up' coinage could signal last hurrah for US stock market Continue reading...

Squeeze on households eases slightly as effects of weak pound start to waneThe squeeze on British household budgets showed signs of easing in December as the rate of inflation fell for the first time in six months, helped by lower airfare costs and a fall in the price of games and toys.The consumer price index fell to 3% last month from a five-year high of 3.1% in November, raising the prospect that inflation may have peaked, easing some of the pressure on UK consumers. Economists had expected the rate to moderate as the effects from the fall in sterling since the Brexit vote – which pushed up the cost of importing food and fuel – begin to wash out of the system.Inflation is when prices rise. Deflation is the opposite – price decreases over time – but inflation is far more common. Continue reading...

Given the chance to think on each others’ views, we become more tolerant: a citizens’ assembly is how to fight illiberalismThere’s a chasm between the will of the British people as expressed in their 52% vote for Brexit and their considered will. It turns out that ordinary Britons deliberating with their peers think things through, “unspinning” much of the surrounding media hysteria.In late 2017, a group of universities selected 50 people by lot to be representative of ordinary Britons in a “citizens’ assembly”. Between the referendum and the end of two weekends spent deliberating on Brexit, a group exemplifying the referendum’s 52:48 Brexit vote had swung to 40:60 against.The tragedy of Brexit doesn’t concern Britain’s economy but rather its democracyA hard Brexit would take Britain out of the EU’s single market and customs union and ends its obligations to respect the four freedoms, make big EU budget payments and accept the jurisdiction of the ECJ: what Brexiters mean by “taking back control” of Britain’s borders, laws and money. It would mean a return of trade tariffs, depending on what (if any) FTA was agreed. See our full Brexit phrasebook.Related: Citizens UK makes Westminster’s politicians face power of the people Continue reading...

Poorest households are spending 25% of monthly income servicing debts as UK borrowing rocketsOne in four of Britain’s poorest households are falling behind with debt payments or spending more than a quarter of their monthly income on repayments, according to a study.The latest evidence of mounting debt problems for some of the most vulnerable in society is shown in a report by the Institute for Fiscal Studies, on behalf of the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, at a time when borrowing on credit cards, loans and car finance deals returns to levels unseen since before the 2008 financial crisis.Related: Personal debt: how you can shred your borrowing this year Continue reading...

Labour leader says Carillion crisis is a ‘watershed moment’ for UK public services, as government ministers discuss their next step

Silvana Tenreyro, a member of the bank’s monetary policy committee, said firms will delay investment due to uncertaintyThe uncertainty caused by Brexit is deterring companies from investing and hampering Britain’s ability to close its productivity gap with other leading developed countries, a Bank of England policymaker has warned.Silvana Tenreyro, one of the nine members of Threadneedle Street’s monetary policy committee (MPC), which sets UK interest rates, said 75% of the decrease in growth of output per worker since the financial crisis a decade ago was due to manufacturing and financial services, but that a period of catch-up was feasible.Productivity is an economic measure of the efficiency of a workforce. It typically measures the level of output per hour of work, or per worker. Continue reading...

Trading bloc would suffer more in lost output than thought, although lack of trade deal would cost UK around £125bnA no-deal Brexit would cost the remaining 27 EU nations €112bn (£99.5bn) in lost economic output, according to research by a UK-based thinktank.Although the UK would still be the biggest loser from crashing out of the EU single market and customs union without a new trade deal – with a cost to the economy of £125bn by 2020 – the EU would also suffer a bigger economic hit than previously thought by the end of the decade, according to the consultancy Oxford Economics.A hard Brexit would take Britain out of the EU’s single market and customs union and ends its obligations to respect the four freedoms, make big EU budget payments and accept the jurisdiction of the ECJ: what Brexiters mean by “taking back control” of Britain’s borders, laws and money. It would mean a return of trade tariffs, depending on what (if any) FTA was agreed. See our full Brexit phrasebook. Continue reading...

Republican tax cut will widen the trade and current-account deficits, the opposite of what was promisedUS President Donald Trump and congressional Republican allies have succeeded in passing their big tax legislation. While it lacks many of the desirable attributes of true tax reform, it amounts to a success for Trump, who failed to deliver any other major piece of legislation during the first year of his administration. But what will it mean for Trump’s other major promise, to cut the US trade deficit?

Nicola Sturgeon says updated analysis strengthens case for UK staying in EU single marketScotland’s economy faces losing up to £16bn a year as a result of leaving the EU, according to a Scottish government forecast.The updated analysis warns that a hard Brexit, in which the UK falls back on World Trade Organisation rules, would cost Scotland up to £12.7bn and cause real household incomes to fall by 9.6%, or £2,263 per head. Continue reading...

Bargains were snatched from the shoppers who needed them in order to make bigger profits from people with fatter wallets. It was the trickle-up effect at work – much like our system nowI once had a stall in the Portobello Road market, when it still had a cheap, rubbishy end where you could find thrilling bargains. My stall was at this fascinating, vibrant end, between a book stall and a bric-a-brac stall, on a pavement forecourt facing the public lavatories.Every Saturday, the bookseller, who also sold cinema ephemera, would leave me in charge and go down to the swanky part of the market, which was crammed with tourists. There he would find his own stock, which dealers had snapped up from his stall early in the morning, to sell at a staggering profit on their own stalls, 10 minutes’ walk away. Continue reading...

A collective insanity has sprouted around the new field of ‘cryptocurrencies’, causing an irrational gold rush. I know you’re tempted, but don’t be a foolI’ve been watching this bitcoin situation for a few years, assuming it would just blow over.

Scottish first minister also says Jeremy Corbyn appears ‘only slightly less in favour of a hard Brexit than the Tories’Nicola Sturgeon has described as “shameful” Westminster’s failure to consider the impact of Brexit on the economy, as her own government prepares to publish a “clear-eyed, hard-headed” analysis of potential outcomes of leaving the EU.Interviewed on the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show on Sunday morning, Scotland’s first minister said that, although she had seen “some redacted material” from the UK government’s Brexit impact assessments, “I think everyone has concluded that what we were told previously by David Davis were in-depth impact studies are no such thing”.Staying in the single market and customs union Continue reading...

Western bank loans for projects in Africa were to be paid off via rising commodity prices. At least that was the theory …

The young people of Britain are threatened not just by leaving the EU, but by the accumulation of problems created by neglect of public servicesOne of the many annoying aspects of the Brexit referendum fiasco is that it has diverted attention from so many pressing domestic economic and social problems.Yet those of us who are unrepentant Remainers still regard the struggle as worthwhile. Brexiters may argue that the prospect of short-term economic damage was exaggerated during the campaign, and, as I acknowledged in a recent column, it was. But that this is a case of “so far, not so bad” is beside the point. The damage will hit us if we go ahead with leaving our largest market and indulge the extreme Brexiters’ fantasy of contriving wonderful new markets in far less important countries from the trading point of view – markets, that, strangely enough, already exist. Continue reading...

Quick transatlantic trade deal should be put ‘out of our minds’ says former ambassador, as poll shows 72% of British public think president is a risk to international stabilityDonald Trump’s deteriorating relationship with Britain is likely to kill off any lingering cabinet hopes of a swift post-Brexit trade deal with the United States, a former British ambassador to Washington has warned.Sir Nigel Sheinwald said that a series of controversial interventions by the US president in British issues meant that the remote prospect of a quick transatlantic deal, heralded by pro-Brexit cabinet members, should now be “put out of our minds” for good. Continue reading...

After months of trying to get Trump on side, Canada ‘drops the gloves’ by filing trade complaint – but will the decision merely inflame economic tensions?The charm offensive was already under way before Donald Trump moved into the White House. By inauguration, Justin Trudeau’s top advisers had fostered close contacts with Trump’s inner circle, setting the stage for a Washington visit peppered with smiles, handshakes and photo ops.But this week relations between Canada and the US seemingly struck a different note, as news broke that Ottawa had launched an all-out trade war against Washington.Related: Canada v Mexico: Trump seeks to divide and conquer in Nafta negotiations Continue reading...

Rising inflation, falling living standards and static pay fuel anxiety across all income bands, thinktank findsAnxiety over future job and pay prospects has become entrenched among UK workers against a backdrop of falling living standards, Brexit uncertainty and the prospect of automation, a report has warned.Four out of five working people are concerned that inflation will outstrip their pay in future, despite high levels of employment, the Royal Society of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce said.Related: Real wages fall despite low levels of unemployment Continue reading...

Economists say city’s status as financial and cultural giant means move to sever ties with fossil fuel will catalyze others in US and around the world to follow

No-deal forecast of losses of 500,000 jobs and nearly £50bn in investment is circumspect, but still makes a lot of assumptionsRelated: Brexit: UK could lose half a million jobs with no deal, says Sadiq Khan Continue reading...

Heather Stewart and Anushka Asthana discuss the cabinet shake-up, plus Sonia Sodha, Torsten Bell and Neal Lawson on the concept of a universal basic incomeIt was supposed to be a reshuffle to freshen up the cabinet. Instead Theresa May had an education secretary storming off to the backbenches, the wrong chairman accidentally announced on Twitter and others refusing to budge.Heather Stewart and Anushka Asthana discuss the strategy behind the prime minister’s shake-up – and why it went so badly. Continue reading...

Labour appears to be coming round to the idea of trying to maintain the status quo in our trading relationship with Europe. That would be a mistakeIn less than 15 months the UK will be a third country, a non-EU member. A debate is currently raging about what customs relationship the UK should have with the EU after Brexit. The government’s view is we should leave the EU’s customs union, allowing the UK to sign new trade deals. Blairite figures and Corbyn critics, including Chuka Umunna, are keen to keep things after Brexit as similar as possible to before. They have already called for the UK to stay in the customs union (and the single market). A story in yesterday’s Times suggested that Labour was likely to switch its position “by spring” to back staying in a modified version of the European customs union.Related: Labour must say it: Britain should stay in the single market after Brexit | Chuka UmunnaRelated: David Davis’s petulant leaked letter is the latest slice of Brexit cakeism | Jonathan Lis Continue reading...

Analysis commissioned by London mayor predicts ‘lost decade’ of slump and lower employment with hard BrexitA no-deal Brexit could cause the UK to lose half a million jobs and nearly £50bn in investment by 2030, according to an economic forecast commissioned by the mayor of London, Sadiq Khan.The report, which models five possible scenarios for leaving the EU ranging from a near-status-quo situation to leaving on World Trade Organisation terms without any transition agreement, warns that the worst option could be a “lost decade” of economic slump.Staying in the single market and customs union Continue reading...

Readers respond to a piece by the Guardian’s economics editor Larry Elliott and a letter from Oxford University professor Robert GildeaOnce again Larry Elliott hits the nail on the head with his plea for remainers to move on (Remainers got it wrong: there is no buyer’s remorse, 8 January).Even now there is a complete reluctance to understand the true nature of the EU. Do remainers really believe that the four freedoms to move goods, capital, services and labour were ever introduced in the interests of workers? The continual harping on about the lies of Brexiteers ignores the bigger truth that the EU is, and always will be, unreformable, neoliberal and hugely damaging to our economy. The EU treaties have allowed the capitalist class to cut public spending, privatise, and sell our assets abroad. They threw in a few sops in terms of workers’ rights that we could have won ourselves through union action, to persuade us of some nonexistent liberal aspect to the EU.Denying that immigration was responsible for low wages and job losses, and describing claims to the contrary as a fraud, is simply delusionalThe hallowed 'freedom of movement' has allowed large-scale farms to employ agricultural workers from the poorest regions of Europe at the lowest possible rate Continue reading...

Costing double the price of a whole vegetable and shrouded in layers of plastic, ‘clean eating’ product fails to make the cutMarks & Spencer has withdrawn its “cauliflower steak” product from sale after it was ridiculed by consumers for its “excessive” plastic packaging and inflated price.The sliced cauliflower, which comes in plastic packaging with a separate sachet of lemon and herb drizzle, was being sold for twice the price of a whole, single cauliflower at the supermarket chain.

Longest period of rising manufacturing output in 23 years contributed to fastest growth rate since late 2016, Niesr estimatesThe longest spell of rising output from Britain’s factories in 23 years has left the economy on course to record its fastest rate of growth since late 2016, one of the country’s leading thinktanks has forecast.The National Institute of Economic and Social Research said it was pencilling in expansion in gross domestic product of 0.6% in the final quarter of 2017, up from 0.4% in the previous three months and above the latest City estimates. Continue reading...

Photographer Andy Hall braved the cold and the crowds in the West End to snap bargain hunters over the festive season Continue reading...

After better than expected growth in the global economy, Bank says financial markets are vulnerable to unforeseen negative newsFinancial markets are complacent about the risks of sharply higher interest rates that could be triggered by better than expected growth in the global economy this year, the World Bank has warned.The Washington-based organisation said that much of the rich west was running at full capacity as a result of a broad-based upswing in activity, but were now vulnerable to a period of rising inflation that would prompt action from central banks.Inflation is when prices rise. Deflation is the opposite – price decreases over time – but inflation is far more common.Lenders have already bumped up the cost of fixed rate mortgages ahead of the Bank of England’s decision to raise base rate from 0.25% to 0.5%, and mortgage borrowers on tracker and variable rates will see their monthly payments become more expensive in the coming days. ​Related: A record-breaking year - the global economy in 10 charts Continue reading...

Professor Steve Schifferes says a citizens’ wealth fund in the UK could be the key to boosting productivity, tackling inequality, and giving citizens a new sense of control over their lives. Plus Michael Gold says that if the tech giants paid tax properly there would be no $1tn company on the horizonI strongly endorse your editorial (30 December) suggesting that a UK citizens’ wealth fund could make a major contribution to reversing the worrying growth in inequality, particularly wealth inequality, in the last few decades. The estimates by my project team suggest that it would be feasible to create a £1tn citizens’ wealth fund within a generation, partly based on making better use of our estimate of £3tn in publicly owned assets. In our view, such a “Next Generation Fund” could make an important contribution to reducing intergenerational inequality as well, and ensure that an increased level of public spending and public investment can be afforded in the future when the revenue that can be raised from taxation will be constrained by the increase in the number of older people relative to those in work.As well as the successful implementation of such schemes in countries as diverse as Norway, Singapore and Australia, they also exist on a smaller scale in the UK, including the Shetland and Orkney trusts and the crown estate. I believe that introducing a citizens’ wealth fund in the UK – not run by the government but by the people – could be the key to boosting productivity, tackling inequality, and giving citizens a new sense of control over their lives. The idea deserves cross-party support.

All the day’s economic and financial news.

Treasury committee chair Nicky Morgan demands clarification on how British businesses can avoid paying VAT upfront when they import goods post-BrexitThe government has come under pressure to reveal the impact on more than 130,000 UK firms of rules due to take effect after Brexit that will force them to pay VAT upfront for the first time on all goods imported from the European Union.Nicky Morgan, the Tory chair of the influential Treasury select committee, has demanded to know what contingency plans were being made to avoid the extra cost of the rule change hitting UK firms.Staying in the single market and customs union Continue reading...

British Retail Consortium blames inflation for meagre rise in spending on gifts with shoppers spending more on essentialsHigh street spending in the run-up to Christmas increased at the slowest rate since 2012 after spiralling prices forced shoppers to spend more of their earnings on food and essential items.Figures from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) sent a worrying signal to non-food retailers, in a week of crucial trading updates for the sector, as they showed that consumers reined in their spending on furniture, clothes and footwear in December.Inflation is when prices rise. Deflation is the opposite – price decreases over time – but inflation is far more common.Like-for-like sales have become the benchmark in the City for judging the current performance of retailers. Typically represented as percentage growth rates, like-for-like sales measure sales at stores that have been open for at least a year, stripping out the impact of sales at newer stores. The idea is that they allow a more transparent comparison of a retailer’s sales performance over a certain period of time, when compared with the same period of time a year earlier. Continue reading...

Bank of England and financial watchdog found 89% of card debt was held by consumers also in debt two years agoBritish consumers are trapped by credit card debt for longer than previously thought, according to a study by officials at the Bank of England and the City regulator, as unsecured borrowing reaches levels unseen since the financial crisis.Analysis by the Bank and the Financial Conduct Authority showed it was common for people to remain in debt even after paying off one of their credit cards, as they shift debts from one lender to another. Previously, Threadneedle Street had believed that credit cards were paid off more quickly, particularly in relation to mortgages. Continue reading...

A majority of companies polled expect global demand and growth in export markets to sustain order booksBritain’s manufacturers are more upbeat about the state of the global economy than at any time since 2014 and believe demand from overseas will sustain their businesses through another year of Brexit uncertainty, a survey has shown.The poll by the manufacturers’ organisation EEF and the insurance firm AIG found 40% of the companies questioned were planning for growth in 2018 while 19% were expecting a downturn in their business.Related: Brexit: why the UK economy hasn't led to buyer's remorse Continue reading...

The move is the latest setback for the struggling fashion retailer, whose credit rating was downgraded to junk status in DecemberNew Look is coming under fresh pressure after an insurer stopped selling cover against insolvency to its suppliers, in the latest sign of difficulties for retailers amid a squeeze on consumers’ spending power.The troubles for the high-street fashion chain come after a difficult Christmas for many leading retailers. Continue reading...

The recession meant to make leave voters regret decision has failed to materialise – with majority of people having moved onWe’ve all been there: that moment when you get home and realise you didn’t want that new jumper and couldn’t really afford it either. It is known as buyer’s remorse, and it was a concept that gave the remain camp comfort as it reeled from the shock of defeat in the EU referendum vote in June 2016.In the context of Brexit, buyer’s remorse meant that people who had voted to leave would quickly regret what they had done because the economy would plunge instantly into the stonking recession predicted by the Treasury in the run-up to the plebiscite. Project Fear was actually Project Reality, it was said, and before too long Brexit voters would be clamouring for the chance to think again.Related: Good for factories, bad for shoppers: a Brexit pattern is emergingThe absence of economic Armageddon has simply reinforced the lack of trust in expert forecastersRelated: UK economy in 2018: steady growth tempered by Brexit politicsRelated: UK companies will face huge new VAT burden after Brexit Continue reading...

Revamping shops to prop up a town centre is the wrong approach: retailing will improve on its own if cities can attract employers or prosperous commutersIf Christmas showed us anything, it is that the high street is dying in most of our towns and many of our cities. Figures emerging from the main high-street shops covering the Christmas trading period show that a combination of falling disposable incomes and internet shopping seriously dented sales.Next was one of the first fashion retailers to reveal that its festive cheer had all been online, where sales rose 13.6%. Its high-street stores suffered a 6.1% slump. Continue reading...

Controversial changes in bill would force importers to pay duty upfront on EU goodsMore than 130,000 UK firms will be forced to pay VAT upfront for the first time on all goods imported from the European Union after Brexit, under controversial legislation to be considered by MPs on Monday.The VAT changes spelled out in the taxation (cross-border trade) bill – one of a string of Brexit laws passing through parliament – are causing uproar among UK business groups, which say that they will create acute cashflow problems and huge additional bureaucracy.Related: Hammond refuses to rule out customs union with EU after Brexit Continue reading...

Shares keep rallying even though the latest American Non-Farm Payroll is mediocre, with fewer new jobs created than expected

Fewer people working fewer hours but creating same output explains surprise gain, but productivity remains well below pre-financial crisis trendThe productivity of British workers has increased at the fastest rate in more than six years, handing the government a rare boost in correcting one of the biggest problems facing the UK economy.Labour productivity, or economic output per hour worked, grew by 0.9% in the three months to September 2017, the Office for National Statistics said. Economists said the jump came thanks to stronger growth in factory output, weaker jobs growth and the UK economy generating broadly the same amount of output for fewer hours worked.Productivity is an economic measure of the efficiency of a workforce. It typically measures the level of output per hour of work, or per worker.Related: UK’s poorest to fare worst in age of automation, thinktank warns Continue reading...

US jobs report boosts Wall Street, services lift UK shares and Japan’s Nikkei rises to 26-year high as as equity markets rally around the worldThe Dow Jones Industrial Average has gone above the 25,000 mark for the first time, on another day of surging share prices on stock markets across the US, Europe and Asia.In the UK the FTSE 100 closed at a record high on Thursday, tracking gains for equity markets around the world on a day when Japanese shares hit the highest level in 26 years. Continue reading...

All the day’s economic and financial news, as America’s stock market rallies after a strong day in Tokyo

Forecast slowdown in sector not as bad as feared with business growing more confident but British firms say growth remains sluggishBritain’s services sector, including hotels and banks, grew at a faster rate than expected last month, setting the economy on course for its strongest quarter in 2017 despite mounting fears over the challenges ahead from Brexit.A hard Brexit would take Britain out of the EU’s single market and customs union and ends its obligations to respect the four freedoms, make big EU budget payments and accept the jurisdiction of the ECJ: what Brexiters mean by “taking back control” of Britain’s borders, laws and money. It would mean a return of trade tariffs, depending on what (if any) FTA was agreed. See our full Brexit phrasebook.Inflation is when prices rise. Deflation is the opposite – price decreases over time – but inflation is far more common. Continue reading...