Because US infrastructure is not built to withstand climate change the cost of the disaster will be relatively highHurricane Katrina in 2005 was “the first taste of a bitter cup that will be proffered to us over and over again,” according to former US vice president Al Gore at the time.Since then, Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and now Hurricane Harvey have borne out this prediction. The latest storm may turn out to be less fatal than Katrina, which killed more than 1,800 people but in economic terms it may be as bad. Hurricane Katrina cost about $160bn (£124bn) in economic losses in today’s terms, accounting for the last decade’s inflation, while Sandy wrought about $70bn in damage.Related: A timeline of the billion-dollar weather disasters in the US over the past decadeWeather catastrophes are now six times more frequent than in 1950 Continue reading...

Brexit secretary also tells US Chamber of Commerce Britain will not take part in a ‘race to the bottom’ to secure trade dealsThe Brexit secretary, David Davis, has taken aim at the isolationist rhetoric of Donald Trump in a pointed speech in which he told US business leaders that free trade was the solution to, not the cause of, global turmoil.Speaking to the US Chamber of Commerce, Davis said Britain would not take part in a “race to the bottom” in order to secure new free trade deals with countries outside the EU after Brexit.Related: Trump wants to shut out the world. Ditching the Paris deal proves it | Simon JenkinsRelated: Liam Fox accuses EU of trying to 'blackmail' UK over Brexit deal Continue reading...

Figures could be made worse next month by impact of Tropical Storm Harvey and reduce chances of interest rate riseThe US economy recorded a sharp fall in job creation in August, raising questions over whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates before the end of the year.Economists had expected the US to add about 180,000 jobs over the month. But the latest figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a marked slowdown on the previous month, with a rise of 156,000 jobs. The figure for July was revised down to 189,000 from an initial 209,000, while for June number was reduced from 231,000 to 210,000, compounding the weaker picture.

Growth in US jobs slowed sharply in August, diminishing the prospect of another interest rate hike before the end of the year

Weak pound reported to have helped competitiveness, but rising raw material prices could cause problemsBritain’s manufacturers increased production at the fastest pace in seven months in August, taking on more workers to keep up with strong domestic and international demand.The closely watched Markit/Cips UK manufacturing PMI barometer of factory sentiment showed activity jumped to 56.9 last month from 55.3 in July, the second-highest level in more than three years, helped by the weak value of the pound.Related: Lack of skilled EU workers 'could choke UK growth post-Brexit' Continue reading...

Panel of economic experts hired, but move raises risk speculators could bet against council should oil prices wobbleAberdeen city council has taken the unusual step of appointing economic advisers to assess its prospects for the bond market, as a growing number of local authorities turn to the world of high finance amid central government cuts.Councillors in Scotland’s third largest city will get advice from three experts on the state of the regional economy, and will help the panel with the annual assessment of a credit rating agency Moody’s. Aberdeen is one of a handful of councils to raise money by selling bonds, raising £370m in November 2016 to help finance a £1bn capital spending programme.Related: Greed is no longer good – bond boom comes to an endRelated: Greece plans return to bond market as Athens sees end in sight to austerity Continue reading...

MPC members do themselves little credit, as withdrawing the only stimulant that still works at this time would be negligentMichael Saunders surprised many when he voted in June for the Bank of England to increase interest rates.The former Citigroup economist, who joined the Bank’s nine-strong monetary policy committee (MPC) last year as one of the four external members, warned that the UK economy was performing well enough for inflation to become a challenge. The response, he said, should be a modest rise in the cost of borrowing for businesses and households. Continue reading...

Nobody’s job is safe. But a citizen’s income in a post-work world could see us avoid the Terminator scenario and return to pre-capitalist sources of valueSemi-automated truck convoys are soon to be tested on UK roads. Perhaps, one day, human beings won’t be allowed to drive. Perhaps it will be considered too risky to put an easily distractible human being in charge of a ton or more of fast-moving metal. Future generations may think of driving as terrifyingly retro.It’s yet another example of a pressing existential question, as well as an economic one. When clever robots have taken most of our jobs, how will we live and what will we live on? For these Meccano scabs are not only going after the repetitive tasks of the long-distance lorry driver or factory workers. Once they pass the Turing test and can successfully fob themselves off as human beings, jobs that used to require a university degree will be just as much at risk. Human beings are fast heading for obsolescence. Continue reading...

Michael Saunders says Brexit uncertainty is hitting consumer confidence, but ‘modest’ increase is necessary to curb high inflationBritain needs higher interest rates to prevent inflation from heading back towards 3% and staying there for several years, according to Michael Saunders, one of the two dissenting Bank of England rate-setters to vote for a rise earlier this month.Saunders said the UK economy was able to withstand the impact of higher credit costs after a steep fall in unemployment that paved the way for an increase in wages and higher prices in shops.Related: Quantitative easing is a costly habit we should have kicked long ago | Larry Elliott Continue reading...

President says US is being ‘taken to the cleaners’ by rivals and issues blunt demand for Democrats to support his reformsDonald Trump has vowed to cut the US business tax rate to 15%, in a speech otherwise short on specifics but heavy on “America first” rhetoric.Addressing workers in Springfield, Missouri, the US president – who is yet to release his own tax returns – sought to take up the mantle of Ronald Reagan, the last president to oversee a major tax reduction, even though he has sharply criticised Reagan’s measures in the past.Related: Ivanka Trump supports rollback of Obama's policy to close gender pay gapRelated: Neoliberalism: the idea that swallowed the worldRelated: The president tweeted it – but is the US economy really great again? Continue reading...

Matthew Goodman says the US will look to Australia to advance issues of mutual interest without actively joining trade pactA former Obama administration official says he believes the Trump administration has given Australia tacit approval to move ahead with the Trans-Pacific Partnership, despite the president disavowing and dumping the agreement as one of his first acts in office.

Consumer borrowing through credit cards, overdrafts and personal loans slows slightly amid squeeze on living standardsThe rapid growth in borrowing by consumers appears to be slowing amid a squeeze on households, despite remaining at levels unseen since the financial crisis.The annual rate of growth for consumer borrowing through credit cards, overdrafts and personal loans slowed to 9.8% in July, the lowest rate of expansion since April 2016, according to the Bank of England. The growth rate was a little weaker than in recent months, when the pace of expansion was above 10%.Related: Credit card lenders 'targeting people struggling with debt' Continue reading...

Readers including Arthur Scargill respond to Jeremy Corbyn’s decision to change tack on BrexitThe publicity now given to the decision of Her Majesty’s Most Loyal Opposition to start opposing the government on Europe is indicative of its curious failure to do so hitherto (Report, 28 August). Labour’s new policy of a very soft Brexit is to be welcomed, but for all the advocates of such a policy there is the huge question mark hovering overhead – why advocate adhering to the single market and the customs union without also insisting on being part of the decision-making process on the rules of these bodies? This is the essential weakness of those who keep insisting that the UK will leave the EU.Your leader (So far, so good. Labour’s soft Brexit move changes the debate, 28 August) states that “further steps are not ruled out”; unless this includes taking the first opportunity to reverse article 50, Labour’s change of direction is only taking us down a side alley.

Jim O’Donnell isn’t sure France needs its own Thatcher, while Martin London thinks education is the key to the wealth disparity. Plus David Redshaw writes on how inequality drives boom and bustWelcome back to the Guardian’s agenda-setting Monday economic analysis page (Fat cats and how the wealth gap has been steadily widening, 28 August). It takes me back 25 years to why I first started to buy the paper. More of this would be most welcome; in particular, more on the sort of fundamental transformation that will be required to pre- and post-income regimes if the situation is to be reversed.On the opposite page Natalie Nougayrède more or less encourages President Macron (as if he needed it) to show the French a bit of the tough love that was Thatcherism. In fairness, she does acknowledge that “In France, income inequality and poverty rates are lower than in Britain and Germany,” but does not speculate whether that would be the case if they had had a Thatcher or a Hartz IV, the German labour market reforms. Unemployment levels in France are undesirably high, but if you were unemployed in France would you be gasping for access to the conditions of the bottom 25% of the “employed” in the UK or Germany? Of course, it’s not the real choice that the French should have to make but that’s a longer story.

Any desire for a clean break with the EU is pure Tory fantasy. Jeremy Corbyn must defend access to the single market and customs union permanently

Average price of a home fell 0.1% between July and August as pressure mounts on household finances, says NationwideUK house prices dipped this month, dragging down the annual growth rate, in further evidence of a cooling market.The average price of a home fell 0.1% between July and August to £210,495, according to Nationwide, Britain’s biggest building society. Prices rose in July and June but fell between March and May, the first time this had happened since the financial crisis. Continue reading...

Theresa May has always wanted a new approach to executive pay and boardroom values. Her latest plans fall far short of what Britain – and the Tory party – should demandAttacks on excessive executive pay and calls for more consensual company management have always marked Theresa May’s Conservatism out from that of her more Thatcherite colleagues. Mrs May has highlighted these issues often since she became prime minister. At the weekend she returned to the theme in a newspaper article, echoing Edward Heath’s 1973 phrase about the “unacceptable face of capitalism”. Now she is having another try, launching a package of measures on high pay, workers’ rights and corporate governance to mark her return to the political stage after the summer break.Mrs May’s concern about these issues is right and rational. They are unfinished business for modern Britain. Unfortunately there is little that measures up in this package. Several of the ideas that Mrs May floated in 2016 – themselves fairly modest in the first place – have now been trimmed back or dropped altogether, in response to lobbying by the chancellor, Philip Hammond. Binding annual votes by shareholders on executive pay have bitten the dust. Now the City’s self-regulatory code will require companies only to publish the pay ratio between CEOs and their workforce average. Plans to put employee representatives on company boards have been abandoned. Now the appointment of a non-executive director “to represent employees” will suffice. Continue reading...

Melvyn Bragg concludes that Theresa May wants to keep referring to 140,000-plus foreign students as immigrants because it suits some scaremongering tactic. Plus letters from Jeremy Cushing, Prof Roger Cullis and Dr Stephen PaceyWith reference to your report on the official figures revealing that fewer than 5,000 students a year stay on after their visa expires (PM under fire as student visa myth exposed, 25 August), I have just retired after 17 years as chancellor of Leeds University and cannot credit that the government has got away with this mule-headed and mendacious policy for so long under Theresa May at the Home Office and now at 10 Downing Street.Like many others in parliament and the universities, I have consistently challenged this policy and been consistently fobbed off with arrogant or feeble responses. I must conclude that Theresa May wants to keep referring to these 140,000-plus students as immigrants because it suits some disgraceful scaremongering tactic. Continue reading...

Portugal’s PR vote system put it on the right path, says Dee Searle; Greece shows that political perspectives alone don’t cut it, says Elspeth Geronimos; the UK economy was recovering under Labour in 2009-10 but Cameron and Osborne blew it, says David Butler; don’t forget Iceland, says John AirsMany of the anti-austerity policies that have led to a revival of Portugal’s economy (The lie is nailed – there is an alternative to austerity, 24 August) did not actually originate from the Socialist government, but from conditions set by radical leftwing and green parties to enable the Socialists to govern after they failed to win a majority in the 2015 national elections.Among demands by the Communists, Left Bloc and Greens were the reversal of privatisation, a swift elimination of salary and pension cuts, and a substantial increase in the national minimum wage. These were mostly accepted by the Socialists, who went on to form a minority administration that relies on support from the radical left in parliament. Continue reading...

Measuring tax paid against share of income earned and wealth owned reveals the US tax system has become less progressive – and in Britain it is a similar pictureDenis Healey never actually said he intended to squeeze the rich until the pips squeaked. The man who would soon be Labour chancellor was referring solely to property speculators when he made the remark during the February 1974 election campaign.But the rich knew full well that Healey was coming for them, too. At the previous year’s Labour party conference, he said: “We shall increase income tax on the better off so that we can help the hundreds of thousands of families now tangled helplessly in the poverty trap, by raising the tax threshold and introducing reduced rates of tax for those at the bottom of the ladder. I warn you, there are going to be howls of anguish from the rich. But before you cheer too loudly, let me warn you that a lot of you will pay extra taxes, too.”Related: Why wealth is the enemy of the young Continue reading...

Labour has a golden opportunity to capitalise on the strong pro-European feelings of the youngWhen I referred in my last column to Chancellor Philip Hammond as the only grown-up minister in this chaotic cabinet, I was unaware that he had just put his name to a joint article in the pro-Brexit Sunday Telegraph with his arch-foe Liam Fox, making the following statement: “We respect the will of the British people – in March 2019 the United Kingdom will leave the European Union. We will leave the customs union… we will leave the single market… ”True, this was followed by reports that he wanted, in effect, to retain quasi-membership for several years, but the two emphasised that such a precaution “cannot be a back door to staying in the EU”. There were also reports that Hammond had in some mysterious way scored a victory, which contrasted vividly with other reports that his attempt at some kind of coup had been foiled. Continue reading...

With a euro now worth 92p compared with 70p before the Brexit vote, holidaymakers are feeling the pinchBritish tourists returning from continental holidays last week arrived at airports in various states of shock. The pound’s slump in value against the euro reached an eight-year low during their trips and many holidaymakers bore tales of the woes they had endured at foreign cash machines.“You do become more aware of it each time you take money out,” said Tom Wake as he and his wife Pip made their way through Stansted airport after a break in Pisa. “The rate shifted quite a bit when we were away, so it became quite noticeable and Brexit is there in the back of your mind. Everyone seems to be talking about it over there – they can’t really understand why we’re doing it.” Continue reading...

Fed chair defends regulations and says policymakers may have forgotten damage inflicted on the economy in 2008Donald Trump has been rebuked by the US central bank chief, Janet Yellen, for planning to scrap tough banking regulations that made the system “substantially safer” and did nothing to restrict growth or lending.Yellen, the Federal Reserve chair, used a speech at the annual meeting of central bankers on Friday in the US ski resort of Jackson Hole to warn that policymakers might have forgotten the terrible damage wreaked on the global economy in 2008 when they seek to lift regulations that prevent risky behaviour.Related: Trump orders Dodd-Frank review in effort to roll back financial regulation Continue reading...

The president is threatening to erect new trade barriers against China just when he needs its aid to rein in the Kim regimeFor years, Americans have misunderstood the nuclear threat from North Korea, misjudging how to address it. They have also misunderstood the bilateral trade deficits with China, overestimating their importance. Today, as President Donald Trump threatens new trade barriers against China, on which the United States must depend to help rein in an increasingly dangerous North Korea, these two issues have become closely connected. Yet US officials seem no closer to figuring them out.The stakes obviously are much higher regarding North Korea, with US-South Korean joint military exercises this week aggravating already-high tensions. If the US and North Korea do get into a military confrontation, there is a real risk that nuclear weapons will be used. Even a conventional war would likely be catastrophic.Related: Living on the edge of oblivion: life along the North Korean border Continue reading...

ECB’s Mario Draghi and Federal Reserve’s Janet Yellen set to give keynote speeches

Gary Cohn is the most senior administration official to condemn the president over his initial failure to condemn neo-Nazi and white supremacist groupsGary Cohn, Donald Trump’s chief economic adviser, has become the most senior administration official to criticize the president over his initial failure to condemn neo-Nazi and white supremacist groups, following the clashes in Charlottesville earlier this month that left one woman dead and dozens injured.Related: Divided states of America: 62% say Trump is driving people apart, poll findsRelated: Republicans on Charlottesville: who's with Trump and who's against him? Continue reading...

Special report: India and China are shifting away from coal imports and coal-fired power while a mega-mine is planned for Queensland. Where does this leave coal in Australia?

Sterling’s slide should have improved net trade – but Britain’s manufacturing base is now too small to take advantageThe downside to a weak pound is immediately apparent because imports get dearer and foreign holidays get more expensive. With sterling at its lowest level for eight years, there have been plenty of horror stories of travellers from the UK being gouged by foreign exchange bureaux.The benefits of a weaker currency tend to be less obvious but are potentially significant nonetheless. Exports become cheaper and the UK becomes a more attractive destination for overseas tourists. This leads to an improvement in the balance of payments, something that is sorely needed in Britain’s case.Related: UK consumer spending growing at weakest rate in nearly three years Continue reading...

A Federal Reserve official has spoken out against the Trump administration’s reform plans. It is important to hold a debateSince a revolving door was installed at the entrance to the West Wing of the White House, it has been difficult to keep track of the comings and goings in America’s corridors of power. Anything written about the Trump administration’s personnel and policies may be invalid before it is published.At least for the time being, however, the key economic policy actors remain in place. Steven Mnuchin is still treasury secretary and has not been mentioned in dispatches during the latest power struggles. Gary Cohn continues to chair the National Economic Council, though he is reported to be unhappy about some of the president’s statements on non-economic issues. And of course Janet Yellen is still at the helm at the Federal Reserve, at least until February next year.Related: Neoliberalism: the idea that swallowed the world Continue reading...

Concerns over inpact of incomes squeeze as business investment shows no growth in second quarterSpending by British consumers is growing at the weakest rate in almost three years, as households squeezed by rising prices tighten their belts.Household spending growth slowed to 0.1% in the three months to June, the Office for National Statistics said, the slowest rate of quarterly growth since the final three months of 2014. Business investment in the British economy showed no growth at all in the second quarter.Related: Big UK firms face 2018 slowdown amid Brexit uncertainty, study finds Continue reading...

Workers in the midwest cite trade as a top reason they supported Donald Trump’s candidacy. Here’s what he can do to listen to their concernsSunday signaled the completion of a major milestone: the end of the first round of negotiations to modernize the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta). Canada, Mexico and the US are set to meet over multiple rounds in the coming months.Too frequently I have heard the mantra “do no harm” from industry leaders as they encourage Donald Trump’s negotiations. I take a different stand, as I have since Nafta was signed into law 23 years ago. This is an opportunity to do right by workers across the continent. This moment must not be squandered by pandering to transnational special interests. Some of us in Congress, and many workers throughout our heartland, have been waiting for this moment for years.Related: Canada v Mexico: Trump seeks to divide and conquer in Nafta negotiations Continue reading...

For years we’ve been told that only deep cuts can save our economy. Portugal’s socialist-led government has proved the oppositeEver since the banks plunged the western world into economic chaos, we have been told that only cuts offer economic salvation. When the Conservatives and the Lib Dems formed their austerity coalition in 2010, they told the electorate – in apocalyptic tones – that without George Osborne’s scalpel, Britain would go the way of Greece. The economically illiterate metaphor of a household budget was relentlessly deployed – you shouldn’t spend more if you’re personally in debt, so why should the nation? – to popularise an ideologically driven fallacy.Related: Greek debt crisis: ‘People can’t see any light at the end of any tunnel’In 2016 – a year after taking power – the government could boast of a 13% jump in corporate investmentRelated: Jacques Delors foresaw the perils of austerity. How we need his wisdom now | Mark Seddon Continue reading...

Brexit warnings from trade bodies come as businesses across UK struggle to recruit skilled labourThe food and drink industry has issued a warning of significant disruption and economic damage if the government fails to stem the flow of EU nationals leaving the UK.Nearly a third of British food and drink businesses have had non-UK EU workers leave their employment since last summer’s Brexit vote, according to a survey of more than 600 businesses representing nearly a quarter of the food chain’s 4 million workforce. Almost half said more planned to leave because of uncertainty about their future.Related: UK 'sleepwalking' into food insecurity after Brexit, academics say Continue reading...

While the eurozone is looking healthy, inflation remains subdued – and warning signs remain over the global economyThere was little in Mario Draghi’s comments in Germany on Wednesday to indicate that the European Central Bank plans to stop pumping cheap money in to the eurozone anytime soon.Some expected him to use the platform of a speech to a gathering of Nobel economics laureates and students to say that a long period of growth across the 19-member currency bloc warranted a reduction in the ECB’s quantitative easing stimulus programme. Continue reading...

As Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, convenes a northern council in Leeds, Theresa May heads to Teesside. It looks as if the battle for northern England has begunTheresa May sped to Teesside on Wednesday afternoon to launch the South Tees Development Corporation, a 25-year regeneration project backed by Ben Houchen, the new Conservative mayor of Tees Valley. It cannot have been coincidence that hours earlier in Leeds there was a gathering of an embryonic northern council of regional politicians and business interests, angered by the government downgrade of the electrification of the Leeds-Manchester line announced last month. Called the northern transport summit, in fact its ambitions were much wider: to coordinate and amplify a regional identity. As Andy Burnham, Greater Manchester’s mayor, said earlier this week, unless the north finds its political voice, “we will be waiting for ever for a powerhouse”.What had turbocharged the sense of grievance over the delay to the trans-Pennine electrification, and to other out-of-London rail improvements, was the confirmation that came only days later of government backing for Crossrail 2, the £31bn north-south London rail route. Transport for London had been in a standoff over who would pay, with the transport secretary, Chris Grayling, whose disastrous cost-cutting when he was justice secretary has now largely been reversed. The tension over the London-centric investment of scarce infrastructure spending was worsened by the publication of the thinktank IPPR North’s now annual estimate of relative funding between the south-east and the north, which showed that parity funding over the past 10 years would have meant £59bn more in investment for the north. The government angrily disputed the figures, as it does every year, claiming that the IPPR does not take into account infrastructure investment in one region that benefits a much wider area, like the improvements to the A14 linking the Midlands to the East Anglian port of Felixstowe. The IPPR points out that it assigns regional spending according to official Treasury figures. Continue reading...

Ian Sinclair takes issue with the idea that the 2001 invasion was legal. Plus Dr Richard Lawson suggests that the west buy Afghan farmers’ opium crop, medicalise it, and use it medicinally in AfricaWas the 2001 US-led invasion and subsequent ongoing occupation of Afghanistan “never an illegal war”, as the Guardian asserts (Editorial, 23 August)?Written in 2010, the official House of Commons Library briefing paper on the subject makes interesting reading: “The military campaign in Afghanistan was not specifically mandated by the UN, but was widely (although not universally) perceived to be a legitimate form of self-defence under the UN charter.” Continue reading...

Profit growth at largest companies is expected to decline as some put plans on hold or move operations elsewhere in EUThe long-term effects of the Brexit vote on the economy will become clear next year when profit growth at some of the UK’s largest companies is expected to drop considerably, according to a new study.

How has the economy reacted to the vote to leave the EU? Each month we look at key indicators to see what effect the Brexit process has on growth, prosperity and trade in the UK Continue reading...

Two former members of Bank of England’s interest rate-setting committee find consumers continuing to face a squeezeProfessor of economics at Dartmouth College, New Hampshire, and member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee from June 2006 to May 2009Related: Brexit economy: signs of stability but threat of stormy times aheadRelated: How has the Brexit vote affected the UK economy? August verdict Continue reading...

The latest monthly Guardian analysis finds better news after a volatile start to the year, but potential hazards in the EU exit talksMinisters are preparing for crucial Brexit talks this autumn against a backdrop of better news on jobs, inflation and the public finances as the UK economy displays signs of stability after a volatile start to the year, a Guardian analysis shows.The Guardian’s monthly tracker of economic news shows inflation coming close to its peak and the lowest levels of unemployment since the mid-1970s. However, the ever-present threat that rocky negotiations could knock business confidence, derailing the economy, remains.

Discount stores are upping their game. They have learned that price isn’t everythingBritish supermarkets were once an established social ecosystem: Waitrose and Marks & Spencer catered for the wealthy, Asda for the hard up, and Tesco and Sainsbury’s for everyone in between. Then a foreign species disturbed it. In the early 1990s, German discount stores Lidl and Aldi arrived in Britain, catering mostly for those who couldn’t afford to go anywhere else. Now they respectively make up 5.2% and 7% of the market, and are stuffed with middle-class shoppers, who shun Sainsbury’s Pimm’s for “Jeeves”, Lidl’s own brand version. On Tuesday Lidl overtook Waitrose to become Britain’s seventh largest grocer. It now has plans to open 60 new UK shops a year.The success of these budget shops can be partly explained by a decade of stagnant incomes and government austerity. The depth of the recession, and now rising food price inflation, encouraged people to hunt down the cheap deals (one survey claims Lidl beats other stores on price by some 15%). It is also down to altered social trends. When faith in the banks took a hit in 2008, loyalty to other institutions, including large superstores, did too. Shopping habits became more fragmentary: people carrying their designer handbags would also wear socks from Primark (the effect is known as “Primarni”). If you bought your avocados in Waitrose, you might also buy your milk from Morrisons or Aldi. And as more young people head online for their groceries, supermarkets are competing over a population of ageing shoppers who have the time to look around for the cheapest option. Continue reading...

Repairing the hole in the public finances after the financial crash is taking a lot longer than it did after previous recessionsThe government was in the happy – and unusual – position of being in the black in July. To the surprise of the City, tax receipts were higher than public spending. Not by much, but a surplus is still a surplus even if in the context of a £1.8tn economy it is small change.This, though, was a classic case of one swallow not making a summer. For a start, the deficit in the first four months of the financial year – a much better guide to the trend than a single month’s figures – was higher this year than last.Related: UK public finances notch up first July surplus since 2002Related: Former Lloyds boss Eric Daniels sues bank for withheld bonuses Continue reading...

Public sector net borrowing in that month returns to the black for first time in 15 years, bolstered by self-assessed tax receiptsThe government ran the first July budget surplus in more than a decade last month, as Britain’s public finances recorded an unexpected leap back into the black with help from an increase in self-assessed tax payments.Related: UK public finances see first July surplus since 2002 – business live Continue reading...

The market town stood shoulder-to-shoulder with the north-west’s mighty industrial cities – until a football stadium relocation and rival shopping centres gutted its historic centre. Is the fightback coming too late?The final day of 2016 was a Saturday. In the centre of Bolton, Lancashire, the streets should have been crowded with shoppers at the sales. A few shops were doing decent trade, but it was hardly thronging. Those with Christmas money still in their pockets might have been attracted to the grand-looking jewellery shop with the large “sale” posters in the window. But this was no regular post-Christmas sale. After 145 years of business, Prestons of Bolton was closing for good.As staff at “the diamond centre of the north” sold off the last few rings, five miles north Bolton Wanderers were preparing to face Scunthorpe United at the Macron Stadium, the club’s gleaming, out-of-town base. They went on to win their top-of-the-table clash 2-1, in front of a crowd of 17,000 fans. Nearby, many thousands more people shopped at Middlebrook, the adjacent mall.Somebody described Bolton to me as being a doughnut – the centre’s goneDecline is a polite word for what's happening in BoltonThe figures are showing positive things. The private sector is voting with its cheque bookRelated: Bournville again: can a new Birmingham hospital recreate the Cadbury effect? Continue reading...