Steven Mnuchin, US Treasury secretary, says negotiations over tariffs with China have borne fruitAmerica has pulled back from launching a trade war with China that could have destabilised the global economy, by agreeing to put proposed tariffs on Chinese imports “on hold”.The Treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, said on Sunday that negotiations with Chinese officials have borne fruit, meaning Washington and Beijing can step back from imposing punishing tariffs on each other’s exports.Related: Xi strikes conciliatory tone on trade but offers few concessionsRelated: China and US reach 'consensus' on reducing trade gap Continue reading...

Changes in supply and demand mean that current highs will be corrected next yearThe big story in the financial markets in 2018 has been the sharp rise in oil prices, which last week hit $80 a barrel for the first time in four years.But if oil analysts are right and the cost of crude is set to carry on rising, hitting $100 a barrel over the coming months, the big story of 2019 is going to be how oil came down to earth with a bump.US shale oil is highly profitable at $80 a barrel, so production is bound to expand, and increase supply Continue reading...

The chaotic negotiations both within the Tory party and without means we need to consider an alternative: not leavingYour correspondent is not as well up on social media as his wife and children, but I could not help noticing a slogan posted beneath a London traffic light the other day. It claimed to be from the Instagram project Notes to Strangers – new to me, I must confess – and confidently proclaimed: “Having a Plan B will make your Plan A unsuccessful”.This was on yet another day when the press was full of reports about the chaos within Theresa May’s hapless government about the Brexit “negotiations” – negotiations that seem to be taking place mainly within her warring cabinet rather than with the rest of the EU. And – surprise, surprise – neither of the proposals supposedly being discussed is in any case considered remotely viable by most, indeed all, of the experts I have talked to.As for the Irish border problem, I have yet to meet any serious person who thinks it is soluble Continue reading...

Some believe that big tech offers developing economies a global platform. But others say ceding control of data and markets to the west could cripple societiesAfrican countries should be nervous about the big technology companies sweeping through their economies, knocking out established businesses and crushing startups before they have had a chance to blossom.That’s the message from the anti-poverty charity Global Justice Now in a report that warns of an “e-pocalypse” across the southern hemisphere, as western firms keen to sell sophisticated digital services use their muscle to outmanoeuvre local businesses in poorer nations. Africa is seen as particularly vulnerable after decades of underinvestment that has left many countries with seemingly little option but to accept the terms laid down by the tech giants.'Without [keeping data local] it's so much more difficult for countries to regulate and tax industries' Continue reading...

Foreign secretary’s Latin America trip will also include stops in Peru and ChileBoris Johnson will lay a wreath to commemorate the Falklands conflict in Argentina this weekend as part of a five-day visit to Latin America.The foreign secretary will also travel to Peru and Chile during the trip, which is aimed at showcasing Britain’s internationalist credentials after Brexit.Related: Chilean villagers claim British appetite for avocados is draining region dry Continue reading...

Country pursues deal after President Mauricio Macri fails to stem run on the pesoArgentina’s struggle this week to prevent a collapse in its currency and soaring interest rates from destabilising its ailing economy appeared to have ended in failure on Friday, leaving it to seek financial aid from the International Monetary Fund.The IMF, the lender of last resort to nation states, said the South American country had formally requested an “exceptional access standby arrangement” that would allow Argentina to pay its foreign bills while the government sought to prevent a repeat of the 2001 crisis. Continue reading...

Readers respond for and against George Monbiot, including Tony Juniper of WWFThe natural world is an incredible wonder that inspires us all, but despite our love of wildlife and wild places, there is no doubt that it is facing catastrophic decline, here and abroad. George Monbiot (The UK government wants to put a price on nature – but that will destroy it, 15 May) suggests that in efforts to save the natural world there are grave dangers in putting a “price on nature”.Yet one reason we are failing to do what is necessary is because nature is still seen as “nice to have”, rather than essential in sustaining our health, wealth and security. Many companies, economists and governments regard environmental destruction as a regrettable but inevitable consequence of economic growth – the “price of progress”. If we don’t change this mindset, then there will be little prospect for the revolution in ideas that is needed to avoid a mass extinction event and disastrous climatic changes. Continue reading...

Donald Trump, geopolitics and more make an impact, posing a challenge for central banksThe price of oil has hit its highest level since November 2014, reaching $80 per barrel, as geopolitical fears cause concerns to rise over potential disruption to supplies.Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, have risen by around half in the past year.Related: Brent crude oil hits $80 per barrel as Total threatens to quit Iran - business live Continue reading...

Let’s talk about the economy without repeating misogynist mythsThe economy, according to a newspaper headline, is “at a menopausal moment”. The deputy governor of the Bank of England, former Goldman Sachs banker Ben Broadbent, has been quoted as comparing the current slump in productivity to a similar, and much debated, spell of stagnation in the late years of Queen Victoria’s reign. This period was identified in 1952 by the economist Henry Phelps Brown as “the climacteric of the 1890s”. Broadbent, asked to explain what was meant by a “climacteric”, said that it was a biological word meaning “menopausal, but can apply to both genders … it means you’re past your peak, you’re no longer potent”.And with that Mr Broadbent, to use another bodily metaphor, fell flat on his face. Anyone equipped with basic common sense, leave alone in possession of a prominent position in public life, ought to be ashamed of the claim that the menopause means that a woman is over the hill and lacks “potency”. Such ideas are, plain and simple, misogynist myths. Continue reading...

Deputy BoE governor criticised after saying Britain’s economy is in a “menopausal” phase after passing its productive peak.

Labour leader presses PM at question time for details of plan for customs deal with EUJeremy Corbyn has accused the government of being “in complete disarray” over its Brexit negotiations, using prime minister’s questions to warn that delays and uncertainty caused by cabinet divisions were risking jobs and investment.Focusing on Brexit for a second consecutive week, the Labour leader lambasted Theresa May for being unable even to unite her ministers around a common plan, leaving her hopelessly exposed when it comes to talks with the EU. Continue reading...

Regular pay is up by 2.9% on a year ago, which could make an August interest rate rise more likelyThe prospect of an August increase in interest rates from the Bank of England has loomed larger after the latest official figures showed that strong jobs growth had pushed the UK’s employment rate to a fresh record in the first three months of 2018.Despite the slowest growth in more than five years, the Office for National Statistics said there were 32.34 million people in work in the first quarter of the year, an increase of 197,000 on the previous quarter and up by 396,000 on the first three months of 2017.

Legalisation of sports betting in US should be greeted with caution by UK operatorsThe estimate that $150bn-worth (£110bn) of sports bets are placed illegally in the US every year may be exaggerated but nobody doubts the true figure is enormous. That it is why it is mystifying that the US, or most of it, has held out so long against legalisation. Money – in the form of easy tax revenues – usually beats puritan scruples in the US.Now, finally, the door has opened. The US supreme court has struck down the federal ban on sports betting, paving the way for a mini revolution. Each state will have to pass its own legislation and many may still confine betting to casinos and racecourses. Others, though, may allow betting via mobile phones, in which case large parts of the US could eventually look very European, and specifically British, in their approach.Related: UK bookmaker values surpass £1.5bn as sports betting is set to be legal in US Continue reading...

The sharp shift in exchange rates destabilises emerging economies and threatens trade talksArgentinian president Mauricio Macri’s government has asked the International Monetary Fund for a loan that it hopes can stem a peso rout that has driven up interest rates, will slow the economy, and threatens the reform programme. This reversal of fortune for the economy partly, though far from fully, reflects broader pressure created by the US dollar’s recent appreciation – a process that is set to accelerate, because both monetary policy and growth differentials are now favouring the US.For a while now, the US Federal Reserve has been well ahead of other systemically important central banks in normalising monetary policy – that is, raising interest rates, eliminating large-scale asset purchases, and starting the multi-year process of shrinking its balance sheet. This was amplified this year by another catalyst of the dollar’s recent appreciation; a growing, and less favourable, divergence between economic data and expectations in the rest of the world.Related: The UK economy’s slowdown is clear to all. Except the Bank of England Continue reading...

In place of the ‘big society’ we were so fatuously promised, we have growing numbers of loan sharks and slumlordsIt may be hard to believe, in the midst of a benefit sanctions regime that sees one in five universal credit applications turned down, and a “hostile environment” that directly led to the Windrush scandal, but most of the current Conservative government also stood at the 2010 general election with a campaign that centred on something called the “big society”. The idea was that the state, massive and overblown as it apparently was after years of Labour profligacy, was taking up too much space in people’s lives. Move the government out of the way and communities would step in to fill the gaps, giving it some of that old British blitz spirit, reinvigorating civil society along the way.As with many Tory policies, this was based on the fantasies of people whose only interaction with the realities of the private rental market was checking the yields on their property portfolios. It’s a philosophy that contains a toxic mix of soft-focus nostalgia for a time that never was, and quasi-religious moralising that sees poverty not as a scourge to be eradicated but a tool for disciplining society’s undeserving into better behaviour.Related: Loan sharks are circling, says one of UK's biggest doorstep lendersRelated: We supported women with complex needs. What will they do now? Continue reading...

Decline bigger than same period in recession-hit 2009 and one in 10 town centre shops lie emptyShoppers are deserting the high street in greater numbers than during the depths of the recession in 2009, creating a brutal climate that is putting thousands more retail jobs at risk.The coming days will be crucial to the future of a handful of household names, including Mothercare and Carpetright, which are trying to persuade investors to make vital cash injections so they can jettison unwanted stores. There is also the spectre of job losses at Poundworld, the struggling discount chain, which is being cut adrift by its American owners.Related: MPs launch inquiry into high streets facing threat from online Continue reading...

Harriet Lamb writes in favour of peacebuilding as a saver of money and livesYour report (11 May) about the MoD’s £21bn budget shortfall is yet another reminder that the UK desperately needs “lower cost” complementary efforts that reduce security threats in the long term. With global conflict at its highest level in 30 years, the UK should invest in sustainable solutions to resolving conflict, that go beyond putting a lid on the problem as our adventures in Iraq and Libya have shown and the Chilcot inquiry made clear. This can be achieved through investing in peacebuilding – interventions that deal with the root causes of conflict – both in policy and financial terms. Every US$1 invested in peacebuilding potentially leads to a US$16 decline in the cost of armed conflict. No small change, when the total losses from armed conflict stand at US$1.04trn annually. Peacebuilding is effective, cost-effective and popular according to polls – and it would help with the MoD’s funding problem. What’s not to like?

With worldwide debt at $164tn, 190 countries will be included in database dating back to 1950sWith global debt currently at a record high, the International Monetary Fund is launching a database of public and private borrowing across 190 countries – virtually the entire world – dating back to the 1950s.In April the fund said the global economy was more indebted than before the financial crisis and immediate action needed to be taken before the next downturn. It said worldwide debt now stood at $164tn, equal to 225% of global GDP and up from a previous record of 213% in 2009.Related: Global debt now worse than before financial crisis, says IMF Continue reading...

Governor Mark Carney tells us time and time again that interest rates will rise, but will anyone believe him in the future?Mark Carney is not so much an unreliable boyfriend as a schoolboy who keeps getting his homework wrong. The Bank of England governor gave his quarterly review of the economy last week and yet again confounded earlier expectations that he would increase the cost of borrowing.Whereas in the past Carney has confidently predicted that the economy is robust and capable of absorbing increases in interest rates, only to find plausible excuses for not going ahead, this time he was unable to offer any coherent defence. Continue reading...

The customs union issue – and the fall in foreign investment to the UK – is consuming ever larger amounts of the party’s energyRemain voters must wish someone had considered the Irish border question before they voted on 23 June 2016.It probably would not have changed the outcome. The referendum, as the pollsters remind us, was a cultural phenomenon linked more closely to people’s attitudes to immigration and sovereignty than to economic success – a situation that persists today. Still, it would be satisfying to rewind and show that the reason many now believe Britain must stay connected to the EU for five years or so relates to complex customs rules and how they cannot be reconciled with open borders.Even the most confident Brexiters have noticed the economy flagging under the weight of the uncertainty Continue reading...

Jes Staley has been fined by UK regulators for a breach of conduct after he tried to uncover the identity of whistleblower

Brexiters must recognise the ‘collateral damage’ leaving the EU will cause in Northern Ireland, says former PMSir John Major has warned that a hard border in Ireland will be unavoidable unless Brexiters start to take on board the “collateral damage” that exiting the EU will cause in Northern Ireland.He said that the words “customs union” had become “toxic” and that efforts to find an alternative solution to the border amounted to “limp promises”.Counties and customsA customs union is an agreement by a group of countries, such as the EU, to all apply the same tariffs on imported goods from the rest of the world and, typically, eliminate them entirely for trade within the group. By doing this, they can help avoid the need for costly and time-consuming customs checks during trade between members of the union. Asian shipping containers arriving at Felixstowe or Rotterdam, for example, need only pass through customs once before their contents head to markets all over Europe. Lorries passing between Dover and Calais avoid delay entirely.Related: Brexit plan drawn up for border checks between NI and rest of UK Continue reading...

Decision seemingly based on data showing economy faltering in first few months of 2018The weaker-than-expected performance of the economy in early 2018 has forced the Bank of England to put back plans for an increase in interest rates until later this year.One of Gordon Brown’s first moves as chancellor in 1997 was to hand control of interest rates to an independent Bank of England. Previously the cost of borrowing had been decided between the chancellor and the governor of the Bank. Continue reading...

It won’t be easy to wean Britain off the obsession with ever increasing property values, but it’s important to tryThe housing market is dead. Britain’s biggest mortgage lender, the Halifax, says that prices fell in April by 3.1%, the biggest monthly drop in almost eight years. Newspapers bury this disastrous news way back in their editions for fear that it will spread gloom and despondency.We need to wean ourselves off this way of thinking. Falling house prices are not disastrous, and only in a country with such a perverted relationship with bricks and mortar could they be seen as such. In Germany, they scratch their heads in bemusement when they hear Britons boast of how the value of their house has soared.We should make the tax system less biased and start a mass public-sector housebuilding programmeRelated: Don't tell generation rent the fall in house prices is bad news | Larry Elliott Continue reading...

US ranks poorly for providing opportunities to join top 25% of earners, says World BankChildren around the world have failed to get a better education than their parents and improve their economic circumstances, so generations of poor people in developing countries are becoming “trapped in a cycle of poverty determined by their circumstance at birth”, says a World Bank report.According to the report, Fair Progress? Economic Mobility across Generations Around the World, successive generations in the postwar era, far from enjoying a better life than their parents, have been “unable to ascend the economic ladder due to inequality of opportunity”, or they have seen their progress stall in recent years.Related: Give millennials £10,000 each to tackle generation gap, says thinktank Continue reading...

All the day’s economic and financial news, as Brent crude hits $77 per barrel for the first time in three and a half years

Argentina’s president and IMF leave troubled relationship behind to shore up peso – but people have long memories

Readers respond to the Resolution Foundation’s proposal to give £10,000 to 25-year-olds in a bid to reduce intergenerational inequalityThe Resolution Foundation’s recommendation to give £10,000 to all young people when they turn 25 (Report, 8 May), irrespective of income, may make a small contribution to reducing generational inequalities, but it is also highly likely to increase inequality. For those young people who are already well off, it will provide additional family capital, by potentially reducing the dependence on “the bank of mum and dad” for funding accommodation and educational and business opportunities, but at the same time increase inequalities between better-off and poorer parents. Surely a simpler and more equitable policy to meet the changing income, housing, health and social care needs of different generations would be to introduce a single progressive system of income tax which incorporates inheritance tax and replaces national insurance, which overall has a regressive impact.

The country is a beacon of Enlightenment – a world leader in democratic, sustainable, and inclusive economic growth, writes Joseph StiglitzWith authoritarianism and proto-fascism on the rise in so many corners of the world, it is heartening to see a country where citizens are still deeply committed to democratic principles. And now its people are trying to redefine their politics for the 21st century.Over the years, Costa Rica, a country of fewer than 5 million people, has gained attention worldwide for its progressive leadership. In 1948, after a short civil war, President José Figueres Ferrer abolished the military. Since then, Costa Rica has made itself a centre for the study of conflict resolution and prevention, hosting the UN-mandated University for Peace.Related: Globalisation: time to look at the past to plot the future | Joseph Stiglitz Continue reading...

Commerce has deserted Newcastle-under-Lyme’s town centre. The latest in our new economics series looks at how the community is filling the gap

British Retail Consortium’s latest health check shows 3.1% fall, the biggest dip since its survey launched in 1995Britain’s retailers suffered the sharpest drop in business in more than two decades last month as bad weather, the squeeze on household budgets and the timing of Easter led to a hefty cut in consumer spending.In the latest evidence of the slowdown in the economy since the turn of the year, the latest health check from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) and KPMG found that sales were down by 3.1% in April, the biggest decline since the survey was launched in 1995.Retailers that have gone bust 2017-18 Continue reading...

President Macri says it would help country ‘avoid a crisis like the ones we have faced before’Argentina has appealed to the International Monetary Fund for an emergency credit package in an effort to avoid a financial crash and rescue its faltering peso currency from a long downward slide against the dollar.

All the day’s economic and financial news, including the latest on two takeover deals

The wealthy co-founder of DIY chain Home Depot is so fond of the free market that he has written a book defending it. He would think that, though, wouldn’t he?Thoughts and prayers for capitalism, please. It is doing its best, it really is, but nobody loves it any more. Poll after poll shows that young people in the west are disillusioned with the prevailing economic system. And pundit after pundit is forecasting the end of capitalism as we know it.Enter Ken Langone, an 82-year-old billionaire, whose mission it is to make young people appreciate capitalism again. I know, weird, isn’t it? A billionaire who loves capitalism! Who would have thought? Anyway, Langone loves capitalism so much that he has written a book called I Love Capitalism!, which comes out next week – shortly after the 200th anniversary of Karl Marx’s birth. And you know what? I can’t wait to buy Langone’s celebration of capital on the FREE MARKET. (Sorry for getting all shouty, I just really love capitalism.)The idea of graduating debt-free and not having to worry about being bankrupted by medical bills is borderline dystopic Continue reading...

Weak data has surprised the Bank of England. Not the first time it’s misread the economyThe City has had the date ringed in the diary for months. On Thursday the Bank of England is supposed to raise interest rates, taking them above 0.5% for the first time in almost a decade.It’s not going to happen. A deluge of weak data over the past month has surprised the Bank. It has badly misread the economy, and not for the first time. Continue reading...

Each time the Bank of England appears to succumb to a burst of hopefulness, officials seize on some reason not to raise rates above 0.5%Bank of England governor Mark Carney has already faced accusations of behaving like the Grand old Duke of York and he will probably do so again should Britain’s central bank opt to keep interest rates on hold.Since he joined the Bank in 2013, he has marched borrowers and savers up the hill with heavy hints about the imminent prospect of a rate rise, only to march them back down again. Last November’s restoration of 2016’s emergency rate cut hardly qualified as a major move, whatever the Bank said about its significance. Continue reading...

Those who say questioning the referendum would cause disruption should consider the chaos caused to everyday life by a cliff-edge departureFive of the managers of the top six teams in the Premier League as I write are continental Europeans. I don’t know about the managers of Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United or Arsenal, but Jürgen Klopp, hero of Liverpool, has said loud and clear that he cannot understand why this country should be heading for the Brexit cliff.For the terrible prospect now, as the so called “negotiations” with our European partners proceed nowhere slowly, is that unless someone exercises serious leadership soon, there is quite possibly going to be an almighty political and social crisis.The geopolitical case for not disrupting Europe at any time – and certainly not at a time like this – is overwhelming Continue reading...

To the left he’s a union-bashing president for the rich, but the 40-year-old’s agenda also confuses rightwingers – which could work in his favour‘The left and the right don’t know how to respond to President Macron’s reform agenda,” said a former senior trade union official. “What he’s doing doesn’t fit with the way we think about politics. It’s not like the third-way politics championed by Tony Blair.“It is based on empowerment of the individual – which threatens the left – and on the deployment of the state to invest and drive through reforms – which upsets the right. Neither has found a language or an alternative agenda with which to confront him.” Continue reading...

Pubs, retailers and landlords hopeful of bumper weekend to celebrate Harry and Meghan Markle’s weddingThe royal wedding could provide a shot in the arm of more than £80m for the country’s slowing economy as retailers, pubs and hoteliers look to cash in on Harry and Meghan’s looming nuptials.

Aided by tech, entertainment and agriculture, state’s GDP rose between 2016 and 2017, while UK’s has fallen since 2014California’s economy has surpassed that of the United Kingdom to become the world’s fifth largest, according to new federal data made public on Friday.Despite having a population of only 40 million compared with the UK’s 65 million people, California’s gross domestic product of $2.7tn has overtaken the UK’s $2.6tn.Related: Who ruined San Francisco? How its scooter wars sparked a blame game Continue reading...

All the latest economic and financial news, as China says some progress was made in US trade talks but ‘relatively big differences’ remain

Foreign investors switch from emerging currencies to the dollar as inflation runs at 25%Argentina’s central bank raised the country’s interest rates to 40% on Friday, the third hefty increase in eight days in a continuing attempt to defend the slumping peso and put a lid on soaraway inflation.On Thursday the bank lifted borrowing costs from 30.25% to 33.25%, having already raised them from 27.25% on 27 April.Related: US trade mission ends with limited progress, China says - as it happened Continue reading...

Unemployment falls again as labor force participation rate drops – but wages continue to grow slowly for most American workersThe US unemployment rate fell to 3.9% in April, its lowest rate since December 2000, as employers stepped up hiring, modestly adding 164,000 jobs over the month.Related: US-China talks end in increased tension and demand for $200bn trade deficit cutJUST OUT: 3.9% Unemployment. 4% is Broken! In the meantime, WITCH HUNT! Continue reading...

Talks in Beijing between Steven Mnuchin and Liu He end in ‘significant disagreements over certain issues’Tensions between the US and China increased on Friday as it emerged US officials had handed Beijing a list of demands including a $200bn cut in its trade deficit and an end to state subsidies on strategic industries.The two days of talks in Beijing between Steven Mnuchin, the US treasury secretary, and Liu He, the vice-premier, ended on Friday after weeks of escalating rhetoric between the two nations.Related: Pentagon accuses China of shining lasers at US pilots in Djibouti Continue reading...

NIESR cuts forecast from 1.9% after evidence growth almost came to halt in first three monthsOne of the UK’s leading economic thinktanks has slashed its forecasts for 2018 following evidence that growth almost came to a halt in the first three months of the year.The National Institute for Economic and Social Research said it expected expansion of 1.4% in 2018 – down from the 1.9% it had been predicting three months ago – and anticipated that interest rates would not rise until August at the earliest.Related: UK construction sector bounces back after 'beast from the east' Continue reading...

Ministers need to adopt measures that secure a basic human right to engage in productive employmentVictor Hugo once remarked: “You can resist an invading army; you cannot resist an idea whose time has come.” Today, in the United States, a job guarantee seems just such an idea. Progressives of all shades – from Cory Booker to Bernie Sanders – have embraced policies that to varying degrees say the state should seek to do away with involuntary unemployment. This is a welcome return to a politics of work, which has been missing for too long from advanced economies. It is also heartening that polls suggest the job guarantee is popular, with half of voters backing it. This seems starkly at odds with America’s apparently low unemployment figures. The reality is that the unemployment rate only counts those who are actively seeking employment, missing out the millions not seeking work altogether. When those people are included too, it turns out that about one in seven working-age men in the US are actually jobless. The cumulative effect on communities is a layering of despair. A job guarantee offers hope in what for many are desolate times.Related: Number of zero-hours contracts in UK rose by 100,000 in 2017 – ONS Continue reading...

President’s ‘economic protectionism’ harkens back to errors that fueled Great Depression, say experts including 14 Nobel winnersOver a thousand economists have written to Donald Trump warning his “economic protectionism” and tough rhetoric on trade threatens to repeat the mistakes the US made in the 1930s, mistakes that plunged the world into the Great Depression.

All the latest economic and financial news, as a US delegation lands in Beijing for crucial negotiations that could avert a trade war

Hotels and restaurants worst hit amid weaker recovery from cold snap than forecastBritain’s services sector struggled to bounce back in April from the big freeze in March that brought the economy to a grinding halt, increasing the likelihood of the Bank of England holding interest rates at 0.5% next week.Services firms reported the third lowest level of business activity since the EU referendum in 2016 to defy City economists, who expected a stronger recovery from the cold weather in March.Related: UK economy suffers weakest period of GDP growth in five years Continue reading...

TSB chief executive Paul Pester criticised by Treasury committee over the collapse of its banking services