If employer groups seem happier with the enterprise bargaining system than unions, maybe a shift in policy is needed

Ex-Treasury mandarin Lord Macpherson is right to compare QE to heroin – it required ever bigger doses to get a highThings have moved on in the civil service since the days of Yes Minister. Back then senior civil servants remained the soul of discretion even after retirement. When Sir Arnold Robinson has advice to give to his successor, Sir Humphrey Appleby, he does it over lunch at a Pall Mall club.Lord Macpherson, until recently the Treasury’s top mandarin, has some advice for the current government: it’s time to move on from quantitative easing, the scheme that has been pumping electronic money into the economy since early 2009. Continue reading...

Nick Macpherson says it’s ‘time to move on’ from QE, nearly 10 years after the financial crash, because of its unwanted side-effectsA former senior Treasury mandarin has compared quantitative easing to heroin and called for an end to almost a decade of electronic money printing by central banks.Nick Macpherson was permanent secretary to the Treasury when Bank of England officials started buying UK government bonds to stimulate the economy following the financial crisis. On Monday, he said it was “time to move on” from QE, which is credited with helping Britain into recovery but remains in use nine years later amid concerns over Brexit.Related: Quantitative easing is a costly habit we should have kicked long ago | Larry ElliottQE like heroin: need ever increasing fixes to create a high. Meanwhile, negative side effects increase. Time to move on. Continue reading...

Can freer trade and no EU regulations help us? Economist Patrick Minford and Green party economy spokeswoman Molly Scott Cato go head to head Continue reading...

More sensitivity is needed, says German chancellor, as finance ministry brackets diesel crisis with Brexit as threats to growthThe German chancellor, Angela Merkel, has described big bonuses to car industry executives as unfair following the diesel emissions scandal and called on the industry to rein them in.In an interview with the German newspaper Bild, Merkel was asked about multimillion-euro bonuses for car executives in the wake of the scandal, which erupted nearly two years ago when Volkswagen admitted that it had cheated US diesel emissions tests.Related: Diesel has to die – there is no reverse gear on thisRelated: The Volkswagen emissions scandal explained Continue reading...

Fran Marion and Bridget Hughes are leading voices in Stand Up Kansas City, part of the Fight for $15 movement that aims raise the minimum wage across the USOnce a customer has barked their order into the microphone at the Popeyes drive-thru on Prospect Avenue, Kansas City, the clock starts. Staff have a company-mandated 180 seconds to take the order, cook the order, bag the order and deliver it to the drive-thru window.

Central bankers at meeting under pressure to explain how they will exit huge stimulus packages started after financial crisisIt was at Jackson Hole in 2014 that Mario Draghi prepared the ground for the European Central Bank’s massive bond-buying programme to help rescue the economies of the eurozone, embattled from years of sovereign debt crises.The annual event, held at the Wyoming fishing retreat by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City since 1978, takes place from 24 to 26 August. And it could provide the backdrop for the ECB president to signal the eventual withdrawal from loose monetary policy by the central bank.Related: Central banks are ending policies like QE – but they'll be back | Nouriel Roubini Continue reading...

Britain’s productivity, management and skills training are all so woeful that agonising over a post-Brexit trade strategy is almost beside the pointGeorge Osborne was a worried man. It was May 2016 and the EU referendum was only a month away. The polls were tight, much too tight for comfort as far as the then chancellor was concerned.This had not been for the lack of effort on Osborne’s part. He had published a Treasury paper looking at the long-term implications of Brexit and had orchestrated heavyweight overseas support for the remain side from the International Monetary Fund, the World Trade Organisation and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. Continue reading...

Every government promises to simplify taxes. None succeeds. We need more scrutiny of schemes that are too easy to set up, and too difficult to take awayTwenty years have passed since former chancellor of the exchequer Gordon Brown launched his scheme to promote the British film industry, and in doing so innocently spawned numerous lucrative tax relief opportunities for advisers and their investors.The scheme, which allowed investors to claim back 40% of a film company’s losses against their own tax bills, ended up meaning that many investors were able to claim around £40,000 tax relief for every £20,000 they put into a production. Brown clamped down on this “double dipping” – effectively claiming tax relief twice on the same production – in 2004, after it became clear it was being abused. Continue reading...

Readers respond to recent articles by Guardian columnists Owen Jones and Simon JenkinsThe most effective deceits are those that are wrapped up in a kernel of truth and Owen Jones is certainly right that postwar consensus-based politics has been damaged by the weakening of the role of the state in a mixed economy and the acceptance of increasing inequality (Centrists attack the left, but they are the true extremists, 17 August).But that political central ground is defined by the acceptance that there is not a monopoly on truth and thus a willingness to compromise to try to find common ground with those who share core attitudes of openness, toleration and respect for all in our society. That feeds into solid commitments to parliamentary democracy, gradualism, internationalism and the similar seeking of common ground and partnerships with open societies in Europe and elsewhere. Continue reading...

Beijing imposes restrictions to try to stem global buying spree that has included entertainment firms and football clubsThe Chinese government has served notice on the country’s foreign investment spree in football clubs, skyscrapers and Hollywood as it moves to curb rising levels of debt among domestic companies.The announcement of restrictions in a range of sectors follows a buying spree around the globe during which Chinese firms and business tycoons have taken control of assets including Legendary Entertainment, the US film producer behind Jurassic World and Warcraft, buildings such as the Cheesegrater in London, and English football clubs including Southampton and Aston Villa.Related: Trump trade investigation will 'poison' relations with China, media warns Continue reading...

European markets open lower after Wall Street suffers second biggest drop of the year, with airline shares among biggest fallers2.09pm BSTThe terror attacks in Barcelona and continuing concerns about Donald Trump’s presidency have put stock markets under a fair bit of pressure on the last trading day of the week.European markets opened lower, following the overnight lead from Wall Street and Asia.12.59pm BSTMore to watch out for next week - events at the Bank of England:Busy week at the @bankofengland next week pic.twitter.com/dLC2r1FBT312.35pm BSTOne of the other factors relating to investors’ concerns about the Trump presidency is talk that (another) key advisor may leave. Craig Erlam , senior market analyst at Oanda, explains:Trump has been no stranger to controversy in his short time as President but the latest entirely unnecessary and avoidable situation could prove quite costly for him. Trump has already this week been forced to dissolve his manufacturing council and the strategic and policy forum, while his infrastructure council never even got off the ground, after numerous CEO’s withdrew from the initiatives due to his response to the white supremacy rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, last weekend.The next casualty could be the most costly of the lot, with speculation growing that Gary Cohn – a key figurehead in Trump’s tax reform and spending initiatives – could resign from his position as National Economic Council Director. This would be a bitter blow for Trump and be the icing on the cake of what has been a dreadful week for the President. The negativity is flowing through to the markets as well as such a move would cast doubt over whether Trump will deliver on his tax reform and spending promises in the foreseeable future, two things that have been at least partly responsible for the post-election rally in the markets.11.29am BSTEuropean markets are showing little signs of recovering.The FTSE 100 is now down around 1% or 72 points, Germay’s Dax is down 0.5%, France’s Cac has lost 1.1% and Spain’s Ibex is 1% lower. Connor Campbell, financial analyst at Spreadex, said:There was no let-up this Friday morning, the European indices continuing to fall in the aftermath of yesterday’s atrocities in Spain.Though the likes of easyJet and IAG – which had both been down more than 3% early in the session – saw their losses reduce by a half and a third respectively, the FTSE itself only got worse as the day went on.11.02am BSTThe yen’s position as a haven in times of uncertainty has helped push the Japanese currency higher against the dollar.The combination of the latest terror attacks and continuing concerns about the stability of Donald Trump’s presidency has seen the yen gain 0.5% against the dollar.10.48am BSTHere are the eurozone construction figures:Euro area construction -0.5% in June over May; +3.4% over June 2016 #Eurostat https://t.co/rqx06LzPaO pic.twitter.com/kGnLJhwqSe10.25am BSTMore on the fall in airline shares. British Airways owner International Airlines Group and low-cost carrier easyJet are both down around 2%, albeit off their lows, following the Spanish terror attacks. Joshua Mahony, market analyst at IG, said:Unsurprisingly we are seeing the airlines leading the FTSE lower this morning, in the aftermath of yesterday’s terrorist attack in Barcelona. In London, Paris and now Barcelona, the terrorist attacks over recent years have taken place in the three most visited cities in Europe, with inevitable implications for numbers over the coming year. With Turkish tourism numbers finally coming back, the focus on top European cities will arguably be a bigger hit to low cost European carriers if people decide to stay away.10.06am BSTWith the Spanish attack and Donald Trump’s widely-reviled response to the events at Charlottesville, last week’s concerns about North Korea have been overtaken for the moment.But ratings agency S&P reckons there is nothing much to worry about anyway. Repeating its AA rating on South Korea, it said:Although geopolitical tensions have risen of late in the Korean peninsula, we believe a direct armed conflict is unlikely.[North Korea] appears to have achieved significant improvements in its weapons technology in the past few months. Nevertheless, we view the likelihood of the North Korean regime provoking a major armed conflict on the peninsula to be low. This is based on our opinion that such an event would very likely destabilise North Korea politically and bring no benefit to the country.That said, the risk of an unintended military conflict has risen from a low level. We believe the ruling elite of [North Korea] is rational and has a strong sense of self-preservation. Still, after ratcheting up tensions with little to show for it, the regime could underestimate the risks of a more dramatic provocation in the hope of winning some concessions. On the other side, the U.S. may be less patient in responding to North Korean provocations than before, now that it views the country as being close to achieving inter-continental nuclear strike capability. In this situation, a miscalculation by either side of this standoff could spark a direct military conflict.Korea’s record of steady economic growth has generated a prosperous economy, a high degree of fiscal and monetary flexibility, and a solid external position.We are affirming our ‘AA’ long-term and ‘A-1+’ short-term sovereign credit ratings on Korea.Related: South Korea's thirst for craft beer helps food and drink exports top £10bn9.57am BSTGold is not the only haven gaining ground in the wake of the latest terror attack and the concerns about Donald Trump’s presidency. Arnaud Masset of Swissquote Bank said:Investors are switching to risk-off mode, fleeing into safe haven assets. Gold reversed early-week losses, rising more than 2% since Tuesday. Demand for treasury bonds soared. 10-year German Bund yields dipped to 0.40%, while the 2-year slid to -0.71%. So did demand for higher yielding currencies such as the Aussie and the Kiwi. AUD/USD rose 0.45% while NZD/USD was up 0.50%. The Japanese yen was up 0.40%.9.28am BSTGold is moving higher as investors seek havens in the wake of the current uncertainties. The precious metal is up $6 an ounce to $1293, its highest level since early June.9.16am BSTHere’e the eurozone current account for June:#Euro Current Account at €28.1B https://t.co/iWgeVfiiuR pic.twitter.com/SKMnzcAPAH9.03am BSTIt may be a summer lull in the business world in many ways but there are still a few key events to come, so here’s a quick preview of next week from IHS Markit:Next week's economic diary includes the flash #PMI surveys for the US, Eurozone & Japan plus UK #GDP. Read more here https://t.co/53Tv6QHZBB pic.twitter.com/VFRkCcoAXH8.44am BSTHere’s Neil Wilson, senior market analyst at ETX Capital, on the fall in airline shares:Airlines bore the brunt of a risk-off turn on the open, with shares in Ryanair, IAG, Air France KLM, Lufthansa and EasyJet all slumping following the terror attacks in Spain. As we’ve seen over the last couple of years in Europe, these kinds of atrocities affect tourism and will hit airline earnings. Investors are concerned that demand will fall over the rest of the year, which was already looking like it would be a tough patch for the industry.Airlines are already dealing with a price war and several have warned about the second half. The attacks in Spain will do nothing to help and should hit earnings, although we won’t know to what extent until the quarterly updates come in.8.40am BSTThe Spanish market, inevitably, is also among the losers. The Ibex is currently down 1.1%, but has recovered a little from its worst levels.8.28am BSTIt is no wonder investors are shying away from equities, says David Morrison, senior market strategist at SpreadCo:European equities and US stock index futures have begun today’s session on the back foot. This follows yesterday’s sharp sell-off on Wall Street which saw the major indices log some of their biggest daily losses so far this year.The move mimics that from last week. Back then investors dumped equities after President Trump responded to North Korea’s threat to fire missiles towards Guam with a couple of bellicose tweets.8.25am BSTRenewed worries about tourism in the wake of the Barcelona attacks have sent the European travel and leisure sector index down 1.4% in early trading.8.04am BSTFollowing the Barcelona attacks, markets have opened sharply lower.The FTSE 100 is down 0.66%, with airlines easyJet and International Airlines Group leading the fallers on fears about the effect the attacks may have on tourism.7.59am BSTEven this early in the day, Heineken directors may well be raising a glass after the Competition Commission gave the go-ahead to the company’s £403m purchase of 1,900 pubs from Punch Taverns.There were concerns about the impact on the ranges of cider and beer supplied to pubs in 33 local areas, but the regulator has accepted Heineken’s proposals to sell pubs in the affected areas.7.38am BSTGood morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.The recent brief revival in stock markets has come to a grinding halt, as Donald Trump’s presidency descends into further confusion and the Barcelona attacks revive terrorism fears.Our European opening calls:$FTSE 7353 -0.48%

Advanced economies responded with temporary measures when they needed broader, longer-term solutionsTen years ago this month, the French bank BNP Paribas decided to limit investors’ access to the money they had deposited in three funds. It was the first loud signal of the financial stress that would, a year later, send the global economy into a tailspin. Yet the massive economic and financial dislocations that would come to a boil in late 2008 and continue through early 2009 – which brought the world to the brink of a devastating multi-year depression – took policymakers in advanced economies completely by surprise. They had clearly not paid enough attention to the lessons of crises in the emerging world.Anyone who has experienced or studied developing-country financial crises will be painfully aware of their defining features. For starters, as the late Rüdiger Dornbusch argued, financial crises can take a long time to develop, but once they erupt, they tend to spread rapidly, widely, violently and (seemingly) indiscriminately.Related: A decade after the financial meltdown, its underlying problems haven’t been fixed Continue reading...

The word has become a rhetorical weapon, but it properly names the reigning ideology of our era – one that venerates the logic of the market and strips away the things that make us human. By Stephen MetcalfLast summer, researchers at the International Monetary Fund settled a long and bitter debate over “neoliberalism”: they admitted it exists. Three senior economists at the IMF, an organisation not known for its incaution, published a paper questioning the benefits of neoliberalism. In so doing, they helped put to rest the idea that the word is nothing more than a political slur, or a term without any analytic power. The paper gently called out a “neoliberal agenda” for pushing deregulation on economies around the world, for forcing open national markets to trade and capital, and for demanding that governments shrink themselves via austerity or privatisation. The authors cited statistical evidence for the spread of neoliberal policies since 1980, and their correlation with anaemic growth, boom-and-bust cycles and inequality.Neoliberalism is an old term, dating back to the 1930s, but it has been revived as a way of describing our current politics – or more precisely, the range of thought allowed by our politics. In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, it was a way of assigning responsibility for the debacle, not to a political party per se, but to an establishment that had conceded its authority to the market. For the Democrats in the US and Labour in the UK, this concession was depicted as a grotesque betrayal of principle. Bill Clinton and Tony Blair, it was said, had abandoned the left’s traditional commitments, especially to workers, in favour of a global financial elite and the self-serving policies that enriched them; and in doing so, had enabled a sickening rise in inequality.Related: How statistics lost their power – and why we should fear what comes next | William Davies Continue reading...

The European Central Bank fears the euro may be “overshooting”, posing a threat to crucial exports

Clothing and footwear retailers particularly badly hit in July amid ‘volatile’ trends, says Office for National StatisticsBritain’s consumers are taking a more cautious approach to shopping as higher inflation above the level of earnings eats into their spending power.Only higher spending on food in supermarkets kept retail sales growing last month, with declines in all other main sectors, according to figures published on Thursday by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).Related: UK retail sales growth flat but beats forecasts - business live Continue reading...

Brexiteers argue UK agriculture will be more competitive once freed from the CAP, but the sector needs political supportThe United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union no doubt carries many risks. But, if British politicians and business leaders are right, it also creates an important opportunity: the possibility of building a safer, greener, more efficient, and more innovative farming sector. If the UK manages to seize this opportunity, the EU, the United States and other economies with highly protected agricultural sectors might follow suit.As it stands, large parts of UK agriculture are locked into the EU’s common agricultural policy, which is accused of driving the sector toward larger, more industrial and more environmentally damaging practices, including by failing to support farm diversity and directing payments to Britain’s wealthiest landowners. A 2005 investigation found that the £3bn ($3.9bn) in subsidies that the UK receives from the CAP went largely to major agribusiness and food-manufacturing companies, such as Nestlé, Cadbury, and Kraft.Related: British farmers warn loss of EU workers will see strawberry prices soar Continue reading...

It is hardly news any more to say that we have a record low in wage growth. But it’s becoming a problem for workers, companies and the government alike

‘I think it’s dead but I don’t think everyone has quite worked that out yet,’ Ed Balls, the former UK chancellor, says. He joins former Australian treasurer Wayne Swan to talk about the future of the global economy: if neoliberal ideals are not the solution to our problems, what is? How do we find a balance between the free market economy and the government taking a stronger role in regulating business? Continue reading...

Living standards still face squeeze as earnings have failed to keep pace with rising inflationUK pay growth has started to edge up amid signs that the lowest level of unemployment since the mid 1970s may be increasing workers’ bargaining power.Office for National Statistics figures showed that earnings growth in the three months to June was 2.1% higher than in the same period in 2016, and up from 2% in the three months to May and a recent low of 1.8% in April.Related: Business Today: sign up for a morning shot of financial news Continue reading...

The 3.6% hike is steep and prices are still rising faster than wages, but the prospect of inflation going well over 3% looks remoteRail commuters facing a steep 3.6% increase in ticket prices might find it tough to accept but there is light at the end of the tunnel for UK inflation.Rising prices have been one of the big economic stories of the past 12 months, but for the past two months the financial markets have been surprised by the weakness of cost-of-living pressures.Related: Commuters brace for steepest fare rise in five years as UK inflation rises to 3.6%Related: Business Today: sign up for a morning shot of financial news Continue reading...

Washington-based fund says pursuit of growth at any cost risks sharp slowdown or financial crisisChina’s credit-fuelled economic strategy has been branded as dangerous by the International Monetary Fund in a strongly-worded statement warning that its approach risks financial turmoil.The IMF used its annual health check on the world’s second biggest economy to stress that faster expansion in 2017 was coming at the cost of a jump in private sector debt and an increasing use of complex financial instruments.Related: Donald Trump soft pedals after earlier threats of trade war with China Continue reading...

The Irish carrier is right to smell a stitch-up to hand the ailing airline to Lufthansa – but rivals should not be forced to overpayThere’s nothing like the failure of a competitor to perk up other airline’s share prices. Sure enough, as Air Berlin filed for insolvency on Tuesday, almost every other European airline gained altitude. EasyJet’s shares were up 4.5%, Ryanair’s by 3.3%, British Airways owner IAG’s by 2.9%, and even little Wizz Air improved 4.6%.The reaction makes sense. Air Berlin has been loss-making for years but it is still a top 10 European airline, measured by numbers of passengers, and thus has been able to irritate rivals by merely surviving. That is why one reason why low-cost winners, such as easyJet and Ryanair, grumble about irrational economics and the current state of overcapacity in the market.Related: EasyJet could swoop for parts of Air Berlin as it goes into administration Continue reading...

Unchanged growth in prices weakens case for Bank of England to increase interest ratesSterling fell against the dollar on Tuesday after the CPI rate of inflation remained unchanged in July, reducing pressure on the Bank of England to increase interest rates to curb the rising cost of living.The pound shed more than a cent to reach $1.2855 on the foreign exchange markets, after the consumer prices index held steady at 2.6% last month, the same level as recorded in June. City economists had expected a slight rise to 2.7% on the back of higher costs for producers following the slump in sterling in the wake of the vote to leave the European Union, which has led to rising inflation this year.Inflation is when prices rise. Deflation is the opposite - price decreases over time - but inflation is far more common.Related: Rail users face steepest fare rise in five years as inflation hits 3.6% Continue reading...

Margaret Sharp says a 3% graduate tax paid by all graduates earning above threshold over a 30-year period would be fairer than the current loan system. Ian Noon says there are too many barriers to deaf students. Plus letters from David Reed and Peter ElmerWhat Jo Johnson, the universities minister, forgets (Student finance system is fair and efficient, 14 August) is the distorting effect of the very unequal distribution of wealth in this country. Those whose parents or grandparents can afford to pay off their student debts on graduation are not burdened, as are the majority of graduates, with repayment over 30 years via the 9% premium on income tax. In other words, many graduates from well-to-do families escape having to pay this 9% addition to income tax, whereas those from less affluent backgrounds do not. Is this really a fair system?Nor can a repayment system in which 75% of recipients do not pay off their debts over those 30 years be called efficient. What has driven the system, and indeed its extension to adult education and nursing, is the fact that the Student Loans Company’s borrowing is, like the notorious public finance initiative, “off the books” and therefore does not register as government borrowing – until the debt is written off 30 years down the line when it comes back on to the books. Continue reading...

Consumer price index stays at 2.6% despite forecasts of a rise to 2.7% in July

Campaigners call for fares freeze saying passengers are ‘paying more for less’ as RPI jump raises prospect of hefty increaseRail fares for commuters in England and Wales will increase by 3.6% from next year, adding pressure to incomes already squeezed by higher prices.The rise, the biggest annual increase in five years, is set by the government and linked to July’s retail price index (RPI) measure of inflation announced by the Office for National Statistics on Tuesday. The higher fares will take effect from January.Inflation is when prices rise. Deflation is the opposite - price decreases over time - but inflation is far more common.Related: UK inflation unexpectedly holds steady at 2.6% in July- business live Continue reading...

The elite pretends it saved us from ruin. But while the rest of us endure austerity, the economic and business model that created the crash remains intact

Resolution Foundation says there has been a marked fall in UK labour mobility since the turn of the millenniumThe unwillingness of young graduates to move from their home regions is behind a marked drop in Britain’s labour mobility since the turn of the millennium, a thinktank has said.A study by the Resolution Foundation showed that the share of the population prepared to switch both region and employer in 2016 had fallen from 0.8% to 0.6%.Related: Business Today: sign up for a morning shot of financial news Continue reading...

If you want to tackle inequality, the first thing you should do is join a union – a report puts the premium on wages for private sector union workers at 20%

Modern-day slavery is found in every form of UK economic activity – food, clothing, social care, fishing, hotels, leisure, and construction, writes Gary CraigThree issues stand out from your coverage of the Nottingham slavery trials (Report, 12 August).First, despite the increasing amount of information available, most people do not understand that slavery is widespread in the UK, or if they do, don’t know how to spot it or what to do about it. Continue reading...

Good news for Shinzo Abe as consumer spending and capital investment ahead of the Tokyo Olympics fuels growthJapan’s economy expanded at the fastest pace for more than two years in the three months to June, with domestic spending accelerating as the country prepares for the 2020 Toyko Olympics and low levels of unemployment encouraged businesses to invest.The world’s third largest economy recorded an expansion in second-quarter gross domestic product at an annualised rate of 4%, according to figures from the cabinet office on Monday, making the country the fastest-growing of the G7 wealthy nations.Related: How Trump v Kim can wreck the world economy without a shot being fired | Larry ElliottJapan GDP Surges 4%, Most In Two Years, On Jump In Government Stimulus Spending https://t.co/eoZHSr2LhK Continue reading...

Latest inflation figures due out this week forecast to show prices rising at 2.7% with pay remainin flat even as unemployment continues to fallThe squeeze on cash-strapped British households is expected to be illustrated this week byofficial figures likely to show that inflation picked up last month, outstripping growth in pay packets.City economists are forecasting that the consumer price index (CPI) rose at an annual rate of 2.7% in July, up from 2.6% in June. The figures will be released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Tuesday, followed by labour market data the next day which are expected to show wage growth stagnated while unemployment continued to fall. Continue reading...

A nation’s cash value is still a go-to measure of wealth. But the quality of housing, healthcare and access to technology are the indicators we should focus onThe idea that GDP growth is the wrong measure of a nation’s progress has become so widely accepted as to be the new common sense. Yet it is still the go-to number for lack of a credible alternative. Measuring happiness or wellbeing is fraught for numerous reasons, not least of which is that such indices make questionable assumptions about what it means to live a good life.Related: Slow economic growth is not the new normal, it's the old norm | Larry ElliottRelated: The future: where borrowing is the norm and ownership is luxury Continue reading...

Tension is more likely to spark a US trade war with Beijing than a shootout with Pyongyang. China’s debt bubble will burst, with major consequencesFull marks for timing, Mr President. Last week marked the 10th anniversary of the start of the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression, making it an appropriate moment for Donald Trump to threaten North Korea with obliteration.One of the few achievements Trump can point to in his first six months in office is that shares on Wall Street have been steadily rising since his election victory last October. The “fire and fury” remark and the inevitable counter blast from Kim Jong-un gave the markets pause for thought. But not much more than that.

We are fond of remembering our role as wartime liberators. But now it is we who need help, in the form of an offer to protect us from our folly‘A visitor from Mars would assume that the UK is under attack from a hostile power seeking to destroy our economy and many of our national institutions … But there is no hostile foreign power. The threatened damage is entirely self-inflicted.”This forceful reflection on the state of the nation comes from Sir Brian Unwin, former president of the European Investment Bank, one of the many EU institutions from whose work the British economy has benefited through our membership. Continue reading...

Authoritarian China is now an economic blueprint for Zuma and MaduroTen years ago this week, it became clear that the dread event – a run on one bank that will create a malevolent impact on others – was under way. A US investment bank had a few weeks earlier summarily closed some of its property-based hedge funds to stop a cascade of sellers; now a French bank was doing the same, as a panic about overblown property values infected confidence.The financial crisis of 2007/8 was the beginning of a chain of events that would ultimately threaten the viability of the west’s banking system – the landmark economic moment of this century, the consequences of which are still playing themselves out. Continue reading...

The whole economy moves when the property market moves. This is hardly a desirable state of affairs, but we are not in for a re-run of the 1990s slumpHouse price crashes are rare in Britain and it’s not hard to see why. This is a small country with tough planning laws and a tax system that creates incentives for people to invest in bricks and mortar. Mostly, limits on supply plus strong demand equals rising prices.There is little to suggest that the property market is about to go though the agonies of the late 1980s and early 1990s, when prices fell in real terms for more than half a decade and record numbers of homes were repossessed. Continue reading...

Investment bank Morgan Stanley predicts pound-euro parity by early next yearBritish holidaymakers should brace themselves for more Brexit pain when they change their pounds into euros, with a leading investment bank forecasting the currencies are on the way to parity.Sterling is trading at €1.09 after collapsing from €1.31 on the day before the UK voted to quit the European Union in June 2016.Related: Pound plunges amid fears over Brexit delaysRelated: UK households cut back as Brexit effect on pound hits living costs Continue reading...

A proposed new anti-Brexit movement would attract neoliberals in thrall to flawed free market economics. In short, half the Conservative partyOne Thursday night in the next couple of years we could go to sleep knowing that, by Friday morning, neoliberalism in Britain will be over. If a left-led Labour party comes to power, leading a coalition determined to scrap free market economics, that will be a good day for working people. It will be a bad day for Virgin Care, Portland Communications and Saudi Arabia.Related: Utopian thinking: the eclipse of neoliberalism heralds a new dawn of sharing | Minna SalamiRelated: Brexit will be catastrophic. Yet I still support Jeremy Corbyn | Rhiannon Lucy Cosslett Continue reading...

The wage gap is more than simply one very memorable statistic – it’s a measure of inequality that shrinks and expands according to age, industry and raceA Google employee’s tirade against diversity efforts included a claim that the gender wage gap is a myth, in spite of mountains of data proving otherwise.But the wage gap is more than simply one very memorable statistic – that a woman in the US earns $0.80 for each $1 a man earns. It is a measure of inequality that shrinks and expands based on variables including age, geography, industry, occupation and race.

At the EU he was a lone voice against hyper-globalisation and its rust-belt economics. The era of Brexit and Trump needs his internationalist spirit

Nearly half of £6.1bn energy spending in developing countries from 2010-14 went on oil, coal and gas-fired schemes, data showsThe UK has spent more than twice as much overseas support on fossil fuels projects as on renewable ones so far this decade, according to research commissioned by the Catholic aid agency Cafod.The Overseas Development Institute, which analysed the figures, found that 46% of Britain’s £6.1bn energy spending in developing countries between 2010 and 2014 went on oil, coal and gas-fired schemes, compared with 22% for renewable energy projects.Related: Fossil fuel subsidies are a staggering $5 tn per year | John Abraham Continue reading...

One in three men from disadvantaged backgrounds are single at age of 42, compared with one in seven from rich familiesMiddle-aged men from disadvantaged backgrounds are twice as likely to be single as those from rich families, according to a new study that highlights the lack of social mobility in Britain.Research by the Institute for Fiscal Studies shows that men’s marriage prospects are linked to their upbringing, and that the disparity between those from well-off and poor families has widened in recent years. Continue reading...

David Murray on debunking economic myths; Les Bright on politicians with no answers; Ed Runham on Labour being unfairly blamed; Alan Cleaver on banks having learned nothing; and Frank Field MP on a programme to boost wagesAs Torsten Bell notes, those in Whitehall failed to see the crash coming (We let the financial crisis go to waste, 9 August), but a significant number of non-neoclassical economists did – it’s just that they weren’t listened to. It’s possible that Bell is also steeped in neoclassical economic beliefs, but in the hope that his good work at the Resolution Foundation might have loosened those chains, he could do enormous further service by speaking up to debunk a few economic myths.When he writes “there is not some magic bullet”, it resonates with the now discredited “myth” that “there is no magic money tree”, employed by Thatcher, Cameron and May. After all, from his time in the department he must surely have been aware that in 2013, tucked away in the bundle of Treasury documents tabled by the then chancellor, George Osborne, on budget day, was one with this paragraph: “For example, it is theoretically possible for monetary authorities to finance fiscal deficits through the creation of money. In theory, this could allow governments to increase spending or reduce taxation without raising corresponding financing from the private sector. Adair Turner, Chairman of the Financial Services Authority, has suggested this could be a tool to use in extreme circumstances.” Clearly such money could be used to increase spending to build houses and improve the lot of workers, both of which Bell recommends.

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