Stock market booms as poll putting Labour just 5 points behind Conservatives boosts value of big UK firms with major overseas earningsShares in Britain’s biggest companies reached record levels on Friday as a slump in the pound boosted the value of firms with overseas earnings.The FTSE 100 jumped 63 points to close the day at 7,547, closely followed by the FTSE 250, seen as a better barometer of the health of UK business, which also reached an all-time closing high, rising 57 points to 20,024.Related: FTSE 100 hits record high as election jitters drive pound down – business live Continue reading...
We need employers to actively retain, retrain and recruit older workers, writes Patrick Thomson of the Centre for Ageing BetterAs your article highlights (Retirement age of 70 needed to avert pensions crisis, says WEF, 26 May), the demographic shift that we are currently facing may put financial strains on the economy unless changes to both employment and recruitment practices towards older workers are addressed. However, our increasing longevity needs to be seen as an opportunity, not a financial burden.The fact we are living longer means we can enjoy longer careers, and it is estimated that extending the average working life by just one year could increase GDP by 1%, or £20bn by 2023. Our research has shown that people derive benefits from working in later life, as long as that work is fulfilling. Continue reading...
Respected thinktank says neither Conservatives nor Labour are being entirely honest about how they will fund and deliver their different visions for the UKA plague on both your houses. That, put simply, is the considered view of the Institute for Fiscal Studies on the tax and spending pledges made by the Conservative and Labour parties in their election manifestos.There was, the IFS noted, a real choice for voters on 8 June, marking quite a change from recent elections. But it was a choice between the undeliverable on the part of the Tories and the unworkable from Labour. Even by the IFS’s exacting standards, it was a withering assessment.Related: IFS makes damning assessment of Tory and Labour manifestos Continue reading...
by Presented by Heather Stewart with Alan Travis, Lar on (#2QTMN)
Heather Stewart is joined by the Guardian’s home affairs editor Alan Travis to discuss the government’s response to the Manchester attack and how the main parties differ in their approach to tackling terrorism. Plus: Larry Elliott and Stephen King on the retreat of globalisationBritain’s terrorism threat level was raised to critical after the attack in Manchester this week and soldiers were placed under the command of police on Britain’s streets. With less than two weeks of the election campaign remaining, security and counter-terrorism have risen to the top of the political agenda.Joining Heather Stewart is the Guardian’s home affairs editor, Alan Travis, who has been through the party manifestos to compare how each would tackle terrorism.
Neither party’s general election manifesto sets out an honest set of choices, says leading thinktankNeither of the two main parties “has set out an honest set of choices†to the public over their tax and spending plans, the Institute of Fiscal Studies has said.
ONS revises GDP growth figure to 0.2% for first quarter as post-Brexit vote rise in prices puts pressure on household budgetsThe UK economy slowed even more sharply than first thought in the opening months of this year as rising prices in the wake of the Brexit vote took their toll on consumer spending.The Office for National Statistics said GDP grew just 0.2% in the first quarter of 2017, a marked change of pace from the 0.7% growth in the final three months of 2016. Statisticians had previously estimated the economy grew 0.3% in the first quarter.Related: UK growth unexpectedly revised down to just 0.2% as inflation bites - business live Continue reading...
How has the economy reacted to the vote to leave the EU on 23 June? Each month we look at key indicators to see what effect the Brexit process has on growth, prosperity and trade in the UK Continue reading...
The latest monthly Guardian analysis finds consumers facing Brexit-related inflation pressures as the general election loomsThe Brexit squeeze on household budgets has intensified over the past month, but companies and investors remain cautiously optimistic about the economic outlook in the run-up to the election, a Guardian analysis shows.With a fortnight to go until the general election, the Guardian’s monthly tracker of economic news paints a mixed picture. Living standards are again falling, but while the economy has slowed markedly, as the latest GDP update showed, it continues to defy the gloomy forecasts of a Brexit recession made by some commentators this time last year.Related: 'Workers are being punished by Brexit' - experts debate the dataRelated: How has the Brexit vote affected the UK economy? May verdict Continue reading...
SMMT says slowdown in manufacturing echoes 20% drop in new car sales, but overall outlook is positiveBritish car manufacturing went into reverse in April, with production falling at the fastest rate in more than two and a half years.A total of 122,116 cars rolled off UK production lines last month, 18% fewer than in April 2016, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).Related: Aston Martin speeds back into profit as DB11 revs up sales Continue reading...
Moody’s lowers country’s rating for first time since 1989 to reflect concerns over rising debtChina’s credit rating has been downgraded by Moody’s for the first time in almost 30 years over fears that slowing growth and rising debts will weaken the world’s second largest economy.The agency lowered China’s sovereign rating by one notch to A1 from Aa3, putting it in the same category as countries such as Japan and Israel. The outlook was raised to stable from negative.Related: China downgraded by Moody's for first time since 1989 – business live Continue reading...
Mark Carney, who apparently believed he was talking with Anthony Habgood, chair of the Bank’s court, refused to accept sexist commentsThe Bank of England governor, Mark Carney, has fallen victim to an online prankster who got him to joke about one of his predecessor’s supposed drinking habits.Carney was caught out by the same hoaxer who tricked the Barclays boss, Jes Staley, this month.Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney. Apparently is not up for the type of party I like to throw. pic.twitter.com/6Iam49A5rAApparently her face resembles that of someone who’s had a ‘bracing martini’.I’d prefer a large Scotch myself.I will drink the martini and order another two. Apparently that was Eddie George’s daily in take...before lunch Continue reading...
ONS regional breakdown of taxes and spending highlights Brexit threat – and clouds case for Scottish independenceIt hardly counts as news that the UK is really two economies but here are the hard numbers to demonstrate the point. London, the south-east and the east of England recorded net fiscal surpluses in 2016 – in order words, tax receipts exceeded public spending on a per-head basis. The rest of the UK was in deficit, says the Office for National Statistics in its first such regional breakdown.Some differences were substantial. At one end of the scale, London showed a surplus of just over £3,000 per person – the difference between revenues of £15,756 per head and spending of £12,686. Northern Ireland had the biggest deficit – about £5,400 per person – and Wales was next at £4,500.Related: London economy subsidises rest of UK, new ONS figures show Continue reading...
Breakdown of public finances shows how taxes and public spending are used to narrow north-south divideLondon’s thriving economy generates a £26.5bn surplus that is recycled by the government to provide financial help to Britain’s less well-off regions, according to an official breakdown of the public finances.The first attempt by the Office for National Statistics to break down the UK’s budget deficit by region has demonstrated the importance of the capital and highlighted how taxes and public spending are used to narrow the north-south divide.
Consumers are reluctant to spend because of new technologies that could eventually replace many or most of their jobsSince the “Great Recession†of 2007-09, the world’s major central banks have kept short-term interest rates at near-zero levels. In the United States, even after the Federal Reserve’s recent increases, short-term rates remain below 1%, and long-term interest rates on major government bonds are similarly low. Moreover, major central banks have supported markets at a record level by buying up huge amounts of debt and holding it.Why is all this economic life support necessary, and why for so long?Related: US ‘fear index’ shows stock markets eerily calm in stormy times Continue reading...
The French leader’s desire to advance political and fiscal union should be applauded. After Brexit, he should push for EU military forcesEmmanuel Macron’s victory in the French presidential election sent a wave of relief and euphoria across Europe. But now a reality check is in order, because we do not yet know how the president intends to restore the French economy. The country has an unemployment rate of nearly 10% and its manufacturing sector is 12% below the level before the 2008 global financial crisis.Macron has indicated that he does not want to increase the retirement age, change the 35-hour working week or make it easier for companies to dismiss workers. At the same time, he wants northern eurozone countries to send money to southern countries to protect French financial and economic markets in these regions.Related: Why the EU must be generous to the UK over Brexit | Hans-Werner Sinn Continue reading...
IMF and eurozone states fail to bridge divide over Greek debt relief raising prospect of a summer crisis for the single currency if Athens misses repaymentEurozone finance ministers have failed to agree a debt relief plan for Greece, raising the prospect of a summer crisis for the single currency bloc if Athens misses a loan repayment.A meeting of the eurozone’s 19 finance ministers broke up late on Monday night, amid a row with the International Monetary Fund about Greece’s debt burden. Continue reading...
Case will see disgraced former boss Fred Goodwin forced to defend accusations investors were misled into buying sharesA £520m case is scheduled to begin in the high court on Monday that will scrutinise the months leading up to Royal Bank of Scotland’s £45bn bailout at the height of the financial crisis.
Economists expect Office for National Statistics to confirm that first quarter growth fell to 0.3% from 0.7%Consumers failed to propel the UK economy in the first quarter as rising prices dampened appetite for spending, official figures will show this week.City economists believe the Office for National Statistics will confirm on Thursday that economic growth more than halved to 0.3% in the first three months of the year from 0.7% in the previous quarter.Related: UK inflation jump means the 2017 voter is getting poorer | Larry Elliott Continue reading...
In or out of the EU, the focus should be on be boosting skills and productivity in the north to match those in the south-eastRoll the clock back a year and Britain was in the middle of the EU referendum battle. The remain side was warning about the economic consequences of Brexit; the leave side was extolling the benefits of taking back control. Leave won decisively but narrowly enough to give the remainers hope that the public would rethink its decision.The general election campaign has exposed that hope as a fantasy. Brexit is accepted as a political given by both the Conservatives and Labour. The Liberal Democrats have struggled despite promising to hold a second referendum. Britain will indeed “take back control†in early 2019. And then what?Related: How Britain can build a successful, lasting industrial strategy Continue reading...
Talks in Hanoi are focused on salvaging the free trade deal agreed between 12 nations before Donald Trump pulled the US outAustralia is leading the charge to save the controversial Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade deal thrown into doubt by Donald Trump’s decision to pull America out of the pact.As fears rumble of a new global era of protectionism, Asia Pacific trade ministers gathered in Vietnam on Sunday with Australia, Japan and New Zealand at the forefront of efforts to save the deal.Related: Trade war: is it time to collect canned food and build a bunker? | Greg JerichoRelated: Trump could end global trade and force choice between US and China, says economist Continue reading...
Nothing – not even policies for which Labour was excoriated two years ago – is too much to swallow for a party, and a leader, determined to rise above the frayJeremy Corbyn may score badly with the wider public, but for as long as I can remember the press have given even the most admired Labour leaders a hard time during election campaigns. A recent exception was Tony Blair, who – for a time – achieved rock star status with the media.Many reports have suggested that when presented with individual Labour policies – in what one might call a “blind tasting†– respondents have been much more enthusiastic than when the names of Corbyn and some of his colleagues come up. Continue reading...
Weakened pound pushes Swedish furniture chain to look at making and sourcing more than the odd mattress or sofa in UKIkea is considering making more products in the UK as the Swedish furniture chain bids to fend off Brexit-led price rises.The retailer already makes some sofas and mattresses in Britain, but UK boss Gillian Drakeford said it was actively examining how it might increase that work while looking at other products that can be sourced domestically.Related: Ikea to create 1,300 UK jobs in three new stores Continue reading...
Institute for Fiscal Studies warns of less generous system, as Labour says ‘savage attack’ on pensioners could sway electionTheresa May’s flagship manifesto proposal to shake up the funding of social care for older people has come under fire from the independent Institute for Fiscal Studies and opposition parties.The IFS warned on Friday that the complex new system outlined in the Conservative party’s manifesto, which would force more elderly people to pay for their own care, “makes no attempt to deal with the fundamental challenge of social care fundingâ€.Related: Social care funding: what are the Conservatives proposing?Related: Tory manifesto: more elderly people will have to pay for own social care Continue reading...
Letter from Katherine Chapman, director of the Living Wage FoundationRecent announcements from across the political spectrum have raised the issue of living wages and statutory minimum wages. With inflation rising and wages not keeping pace, no doubt the debate around what level statutory wages should sit at will continue in the weeks, months and years to come. In the meantime, we should champion businesses that go beyond what’s legally required of them in supporting those at the lowest end of the pay scale by rewarding them fairly. Amid the predictions and pledges on what a minimum wage could look like in 2020 or 2022, there’s a growing movement of over 3,000 responsible employers who aren’t waiting for government to instruct them. Instead, today they are all voluntarily paying their employees, including subcontracted staff, at least the real living wage – currently £8.45 an hour across the UK and £9.75 in London, reflecting the increased living costs of the capital.Academics, business leaders and civil society representatives oversee the calculation process to ensure the wage rate is robust and fair. We don’t predict; instead, we make sound calculations.
A proposal to shed linguists and cross-cultural experts is clearly against the best interests of the UK, write 15 senior representatives for modern languages in the UKAs senior representatives for modern languages in the UK, we are surprised and disturbed to hear that the University of Manchester plans to cut 35 posts in its School of arts, languages and cultures, alongside further jobs in business and in biology, medicine and health. Staff in German, French, Italian, Hebrew and Spanish have been told that their jobs are “at risk†because these areas supposedly recruit fewer and lower quality students than the Russell Group tariff average. We have not seen hard evidence of this claim; we do know that modern languages at Manchester have a stellar reputation nationally and internationally, and that the areas targeted for radical reduction have excellent student ratings for teaching quality as well as very significant research power. Recent harsh marking in modern languages A-levels has led to a mistaken perception of applicants as being of “lower qualityâ€; and at a time when there is a clear need to stimulate recruitment for modern languages across higher education, we urge the university to address the issue positively and proactively in the context of a proven and urgent need for graduates with languages in the UK (see, for example, the British Chambers of Commerce and British Council reports).It is worth recalling that over £3m has been awarded to Manchester precisely to support and encourage research in modern languages 2016-2020. The university signed a letter of support for modern languages which was received by the Arts and Humanities Research Council in connection with Manchester’s Open World Research Initiative (OWRI) application in 2015. Continue reading...
CBI finds orders at highest level since December 2013 but analysts say few firms are investing and dearer imports may force higher selling prices soonUK factories have cashed in on the sharp fall in the pound since the Brexit vote, with export orders at the joint highest level in three and a half years.The stronger than expected findings from a survey by the CBI, the UK business trade body, suggest manufacturers had a decent start to the second quarter, boosting hopes that the sector will help prop up the wider economy as a consumer slowdown takes hold.Related: 'People still want to work here': can British business survive Brexit?Related: UK inflation jump means the 2017 voter is getting poorer | Larry Elliott Continue reading...
by Dan Roberts and Philip Oltermann in Berlin on (#2Q17S)
Head of employers’ federation says integrity of single market more important than making good business with BritainGerman industrialists have warned that British hopes of their support in Brexit negotiations are misplaced and could backfire with dangerous consequences for international trade.
by Rebecca Smithers Consumer affairs correspondent on (#2Q0EJ)
Four out of five fear rising expense of household essentials such as food, drink and clothing, according to Mintel reportBritish consumers are bracing themselves for an expensive and uncertain post-Brexit future, with four out of five fearing price rises on household essentials such as food, drink and clothing, a survey has revealed.Eighty-three percent of Britons admit they are concerned about price hikes in goods and services, while 59% are most worried about the soaring cost of groceries, according to a poll for Mintel’s 27th annual British Lifestyles report. Spiralling holiday costs are a concern for 35%, with 26% fearing higher prices for clothing and shoes.Related: Energy price rises help drive UK inflation up to 2.7% Continue reading...
High street sales have beaten predictions, but that doesn’t mean the economy is a sunny picture of healthBritain went on a spending spree in April. The shops were full of punters. Online retailers coined it in. Spring brought with it an end to the winter consumer spending blues.That at least is what the official figures suggest. The Office for National Statistics reported that the volume of retail sales rose by 2.3% last month, smashing City expectations. It was enough, in combination with Donald Trump’s political woes in Washington, to send the pound back through the $1.30 level to its highest since last September.Related: UK retail sales surge despite pay squeeze Continue reading...
Stronger-than-expected rise defies predictions of slowdown in consumer spending as UK pay squeeze continuesA surprise surge in retail sales in April helped push the pound to its highest level in eight months as Britain’s consumers shrugged off concerns over falling living standards.Warm weather and the Easter holidays encouraged shoppers back onto UK high streets, with retail sales up 2.3% over the month according to the Office for National Statistics. It was more than double the 1% rise forecast by economists, and the biggest monthly rise since January 2016.
My generation is the last to remember the destitution of life in Britain before the NHS and the welfare state. Heed our warnings, before we are goneIt was at Bradford University on Tuesday that Jeremy Corbyn unveiled the Labour party’s election manifesto. In the grand hall, Corbyn spoke to an enthusiastic gathering of students and party faithful about the concrete plans Labour has to transform Britain into a country where the many will prosper instead of the few. Corbyn spoke about the need to properly fund the NHS, provide free tuition to students, end the blight of zero-hours contracts, and raise the living wage to £10 an hour.For me, a man who was born and bred in the harsh poverty of Britain after the first world war, it was inspiring. But what moved me most was the venue he chose to announce this manifesto of equality and fairness – because Bradford University is built on ground that, in my youth, was a site of great suffering and death.Related: Theresa May is creating an epidemic of poverty. Don’t give her a free hand | Gordon BrownI can tell you as a very old man: I am afraid for the future of ordinary people in Britain Continue reading...
Pay growth lags behind inflation for the first time in two-and-a-half years, highlighting impact of Brexit uncertaintyLabour and the unions accused the government of ignoring the plight of ordinary workers after UK pay growth fell below inflation in early 2017 for the first time in two-and-a-half years.Official figures showed that workers’ average earnings rose by 2.1% year on year in the three months to March, the weakest increase since July of last year.Related: UK unemployment rate hits 42-year low but real wages shrink – business live Continue reading...
The economic fates of diverse cities such as San Francisco, New York and Detroit would seem to be vastly different – but they share a common threadOver the last half-century, the story of America’s cities is a tale of booms and busts. New York and tech hubs like San Francisco – once cities in financial distress – have transformed into economic powerhouses. At the other extreme, one-time prosperous manufacturing cities like Detroit now find themselves in economic turmoil.Viewed in isolation, the economic fates of these cities would seem to bear little resemblance to each other. However, they all share a common thread: since 1970 these cities, like nearly every other major American city, have experienced a “hollowing out†of the middle class. Continue reading...
Low wage growth and the gig economy have made the labour market look better on paper than it feels in the pocketBritain looks like a full employment economy. A bigger slice of the population is in work than at any time since modern records began. The unemployment rate is at its lowest since 1975. There are hundreds of thousands of job vacancies.But Britain doesn’t feel like a full employment economy. When the jobless rate was this low in previous economic cycles, wages were rising because employers were competing for scarce labour. Firms were investing in new capital equipment because workers were becoming more expensive. Productivity was increasing.Related: UK faces pay squeeze as unemployment rate sinks to 42-year low Continue reading...
Treasury injected £20.3bn to prop up bank in 2008 after its troubled takeover of HBOS but now public stake stands at zeroThe government has sold its remaining shares in Lloyds Banking Group in a landmark moment for the banking sector almost a decade after the £20.3bn bailout of the high street lender.It will be confirmed on Wednesday that the Treasury has finally extricated itself from its shareholding in the bank – owner of Halifax, Bank of Scotland and Scottish Widows –which it rescued during at the depths of the financial crisis.Related: Noel Edmonds accuses Lloyds of 'foot dragging' over HBOS payouts Continue reading...
Corbyn thinks changing attitudes mean we will back tax rises and borrowing, although the sums involve some sleight of handLabour’s manifesto has an old-fashioned feel about it. It has been many a year since one of the two main political parties has gone into an election on a platform that is unashamed about the virtues of tax and spend.The document sketches out a picture of Britain in which the size of the state is bigger – apart from during the special circumstances of the financial crisis – than at any time since the 1980s. You would have to go back even further – to the early 1950s – to find a time when tax as a share of the economy will be as high as it would be under Labour’s plan for 2021-22.Related: Election 2017: Jeremy Corbyn launches Labour manifesto with plan to raise £48.6bn in tax – politics liveRelated: Is Labour's manifesto living in fantasy land? Quite the opposite | Larry Elliott Continue reading...
Increases in clothing, car tax and air fares also blamed as pressure grows on living standards and consumer spendingThe rising cost of electricity contributed to inflation’s rise to 2.7% in April, its highest level in three and a half years.Increases in the cost of clothing, car tax and air fares were also blamed by the Office for National Statistics for the rise in consumer price inflation (CPI) that exceeded City forecasts of 2.6%, and soared above the previous month’s figure of 2.3%.Related: UK inflation jumps to 2.7% as real wage squeeze worsens - business live Continue reading...
by Jennifer Rankin in Brussels, and Dan Roberts on (#2PN79)
Surprise ruling confirms EU officials have key negotiation powers in trade talks with approval of state parliaments not neededThe European court of justice has raised a ray of hope for British trade negotiators with a surprise ruling that will make it harder for national parliaments to block key components of any future post-Brexit deal between the EU and the UK.In a long-awaited test case that had been expected to complicate the Brexit process, the court instead ruled that EU officials had exclusive powers to negotiate international trade deals without ratification by national and regional parliaments.Related: Brexit weekly briefing: Tory election bombast means reality must wait Continue reading...
From China’s investment boost to Trump trade, we explain why investors are shaking off concerns and snapping up sharesGlobal stock markets are hitting new peaks, with the FTSE 100, Germany’s Dax, the S&P 500 in the US and MSCI’s World Index, which tracks equities across the globe, all at record highs.Investors are shrugging off worries about flashpoints such as North Korea, the uncertainty over the global political situation and latterly the WannaCry cyber-attack to snap up shares.
There will be no feelgood factor driving voters to the polls – living standards are falling as the gap between price rises and wage increases widensThe 2017 general election will be fought at a time when voters are getting poorer. That was the big message from the latest official figures for the cost of living showing that the annual inflation rate has reached 2.7%.Earnings growth is running at around 2%, which means that living standards are going down. And there is worse to come. The gap between price increases and wage rises is going to get wider over the coming months.Related: UK inflation jumps to 2.7% as real wage squeeze worsens - business liveRelated: Energy price rises help drive UK inflation up to 2.7% Continue reading...
