Report predicts Philip Hammond will be prudent in next week’s autumn statement and forecasts slowing GDP growthA slowdown in the UK economy will hit tax receipts and leave the chancellor with little wriggle room for giveaways at next week’s autumn statement, a new report warns.Publishing new forecasts for GDP growth to slow next year as the Brexit vote bites, the consultancy firm PwC said Philip Hammond could afford some spending on big projects such as housing and roads if he changed the government’s fiscal rules. But he would not have the money for large net tax cuts and would probably keep a tight rein on spending by central and local government.Related: £25bn hole will limit Philip Hammond's options in autumn statement, says IFS Continue reading...
Donald Trump’s formula of tax cuts, spending and deregulation risks a US boom followed by an almighty bustIt remains early days for assessing Donald Trump’s economic plans, not least because of the difficulty in separating the serious policies from the wilder campaigning rhetoric, but the bond market seems clear on the central point: the president-elect intends to cut tax taxes, increase spending and deregulate.Investors know what that cocktail produces. It boosts growth, at least for a while, and it generates inflation. Even famed liberal economist Paul Krugman has switched from predicting an imminent global recession. “Don’t be surprised if economic growth actually accelerates for a couple of years,†he says, because the “dire effects of Trumpism†will take time to become manifest.Related: Global bonds slump as Trump prompts inflation fears Continue reading...
Sell-offs continue as investors predict tax cuts and infrastructure spending will lead to higher interest ratesFears about the inflationary potential of Donald Trump’s planned tax cuts and infrastructure spending have sent shock waves through the world’s bond markets, as investors take fright at the prospect of higher than expected interest rates in the years ahead.Central banks are braced to suffer fresh losses on their vast holdings of government debt after the sell-off that saw $1tn wiped off the value of bonds last week intensified on Monday.Related: Dow hits record high after Trump win but investors warn of volatility Continue reading...
Study finds floods, storms and droughts cost global economy $520bn a year and highlights need to tackle climate changeFloods, earthquakes, tsunamis and other extreme natural disasters push 26 million people into poverty each year and cost the global economy more than half a trillion dollars in lost consumption, the World Bank has said.A bank study of 117 countries concluded that the full cost of natural disasters was $520bn (£416bn) a year – 60% higher than any previous estimate – once the impact on poor people was taken into account.Related: How America's new president will affect the global economy Continue reading...
Rise in zero-hours contracts, gig economy and unreliable pay have fed revolt, says ILO boss Guy RyderPoliticians around the world risk giving more traction to nationalistic movements if they continue to ignore the growing numbers of workers getting a “raw deal†from globalisation, the head of the UN’s labour agency has warned.The director general of the International Labour Organization (ILO), Guy Ryder, described Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election and the UK’s vote for Brexit as “the revolt of the dispossessed†and gave a damning assessment of the establishment’s failure to offer an alternative to protectionism.Related: Neoliberalism: the deep story that lies beneath Donald Trump’s triumph | George MonbiotRelated: We are living in a depression - that's why Trump took the White HouseRelated: He’s right, the economy is sick – and businesses like Trump’s are part of the disease | Mariana Mazzucato Continue reading...
President-elect ‘will be condemned for his recklessness, ignorance and incompetence’ if he imposes tariffs, says Communist party-controlled paperUS president-elect Donald Trump would be a “naive†fool to launch an all-out trade war against China, a Communist party-controlled newspaper has claimed.During the acrimonious race for the White House Trump repeatedly lashed out at China, vowing to punish Beijing with “defensive†45% tariffs on Chinese imports and to officially declare it a currency manipulator.Related: As the election haze clears, Trump’s China conundrum will become clear | Jonathan FenbyRelated: Australia, China, and the lunacy of Trump's talk of a trade war | Bob Carr Continue reading...
Moody’s warns of rising threat of protectionism but says Donald Trump policies will lift US growth just as Brexit uncertainty will weigh down UKThe US is expected to lead global growth higher over the next two years despite the growing threat posed by protectionist policies, Moody’s Investors Service has warned.The rating agency predicted the US would be the fastest growing of the G7 leading industrial countries in 2017 and 2018, with short-term growth boosted by Donald Trump’s plans to cuts taxes and spend more on American infrastructure.Related: We are living in a depression - that's why Trump took the White HouseRelated: He’s right, the economy is sick – and businesses like Trump’s are part of the disease | Mariana Mazzucato Continue reading...
Businesses call for guarantee that any post-Brexit border controls will not slow travel times as 220,000 jobs depend on rapid linkA quarter of Britain’s trade with the EU, worth more than £90bn a year in imports and exports, depends on the Channel tunnel, according to a report into the economic benefits of the transport link.With Brexit negotiations expected to begin once article 50 is triggered next year, businesses are calling on the government to ensure that any new border controls – for customs or security – do not slow travel times and put jobs at risk.Related: UK trade deficit widens unexpectedly as exports fall despite pound drop Continue reading...
Party says slow wage growth means chancellor should not go ahead with ‘damaging cuts’ to universal creditSluggish wage growth means the average employee is £3,500 a year worse off since the Conservatives came to power, according to Labour analysis of Treasury figures before chancellor Philip Hammond’s first autumn statement next week.Compared with the average wage growth under Labour, full-time employees are £67 a week or £292 a month worse off, the party’s report found. The analysis compared the average annual percentage change in wages in the six years of the Conservative and coalition governments, which is 1.3%. Continue reading...
Britain must be global leader in free trade, says PM, after Brexit vote and Donald Trump’s election as US presidentBritain must “adapt to the moment and evolve its thinking†to become a global leader in free trade, Theresa May is to say.
US president says it is in world’s interest for Greece to stay in eurozone and praises EU as ‘one of greatest political and economic achievements of modern times’The US president, Barack Obama, has signalled he will use a critical two-day visit to Athens this week to step up calls for the country to be given “meaningful debt reliefâ€.Related: Barack Obama must fulfil his pledge to close Guantánamo Bay now | Letters Continue reading...
Since 1975, the fruits of economic growth have disproportionately been taken by the few. Donald Trump tapped into the quiet simmering anger of the manyWords matter. The process of understanding why Donald Trump is now heading for the White House starts with the correct description of what has happened in the eight years since Barack Obama became president.Some economists call the turbulent period that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers the Great Recession. Others say the US along with other developed nations is experiencing secular stagnation. Anything, it seems, to avoid using the D word: depression.Related: The reasons for Trump were also the reasons for Brexit | John Harris Continue reading...
The protectionist president-elect has trade deals at the top of his to-do listDonald Trump mined deep discontent running through America and struck gold.The political outsider drew derision when he announced his bid for the US presidency. But Trump’s protectionist, anti-immigration rhetoric and a pledge to be the “greatest jobs president that God ever created†struck a chord. Continue reading...
The consequences of US isolationism, or an alliance with Putin, are so ominous that leaving the EU is the last thing the UK needsAll right: the egregious Donald Trump’s victory is, in his words, “Brexit plus, plus, plusâ€, and it is far more significantly ominous for the rest of the world than Brexit.But what Trump’s triumph also does is to strengthen the case for re-examining the Brexit decision. Europe is now faced with huge geopolitical concerns. It should be pulling together, and resisting the centrifugal forces which the result of the British referendum can only aggravate. Continue reading...
Market concerns shift to euro after concerns over Brexit vote, but sterling remains well below pre-referendum levelsThe battered pound has notched up its best two-week performance in eight years after the surprise US election result took investor focus off the UK’s Brexit challenges.Market concerns shifted to the euro amid fears that Donald Trump’s victory will trigger a wave of populism and political uncertainty throughout Europe.Related: S&P predicts hard Brexit and fresh downgrade for UK Continue reading...
Digital intermediaries such as Google and Facebook are not only amassing eye-watering profits and paying minimal tax in the UK, they are also bleeding the newspaper industry dry by sucking up advertising revenue. As national and local newspapers try to cut their way out of trouble by slashing editorial budgets and shedding staff, journalistic quality is becoming a casualty. Public interest journalism in particular has been hit the hardest as newspapers are lured into a clickbait culture which favours the sensational and the trivial. In the light of this, we propose a 1% levy on the operations of the largest digital intermediaries with the resulting funds redistributed to non-profit ventures with a mandate to produce original local or investigative news reporting.This kind of cross-subsidy is what sustained Channel 4 in its formative years. We believe that it is now time for policymakers to address the emergent gaps in the supply of diverse media and to secure the trusted and independent news system that our democracy so desperately needs. We are backing an amendment to the digital economy bill currently going through parliament and will continue to press for a news media that places the public interest above those of shareholder and vested interests.
In a blunt assessment the ratings agency calls UK a deeply divided, diminishing economic power on verge of losing the right to freely export to the EUBritain is in store for a hard Brexit that will hit the UK economy and lay bare the deep divisions in British society, a leading ratings agency has warned.In a bleak assessment of the UK’s prospects following the EU referendum, Standard & Poor’s said Britain was a diminishing global economic power on the verge of losing the ability to freely export goods and services to the EU. Continue reading...
Official data echoes reports from builders of growing economic uncertainty following vote to leave the EUThe construction sector suffered its worst quarter for four years following the vote to leave the EU and, in a blow to government hopes for better housing supply, homebuilding stalled.Official figures showed output in the construction sector, which accounts for 6% of the UK economy, slipped by 1.1% in the July to September quarter from the previous quarter. That echoed reports from builders after the Brexit vote that economic uncertainty was hitting their order books.1.1% fall in construction in Q3, slightly smaller than the 1.4% fall estimated in preliminary #GDP https://t.co/qV2VTQy5SnRelated: UK construction sector activity falls further in July Continue reading...
Once in office, Trump will throw symbolic red meat to his blue-collar supporters, while reverting to the same supply-side, trickle-down economicsNow that Donald Trump has unexpectedly won the US presidency, it is an open question whether he will govern in accordance with his campaign’s radical populism, or adopt a pragmatic, centrist approach.If Trump governs in accordance with the campaign that got him elected, we can expect market scares in the US and around the world, as well as potentially significant economic damage. But there is good reason to expect that he will govern very differently.Related: As the election haze clears, Trump’s China conundrum will become clear | Jonathan Fenby Continue reading...
by Milford Bateman and Jonathan Glennie on (#216CR)
As Cuba seeks to revitalise its ailing economy, it could learn much from countries where development has gone hand in hand with state involvementCuba is attempting serious economic reform, influenced in part by the promise of the calamitous US embargo being lifted. Cuba’s social achievements are the envy of the global south, in particular its state-run health system, but on the economic front there is less to write home about.Central planning has never worked, and it certainly did not in Cuba. But free markets have not worked very well either.Related: Cuba: A development model that proved the doubters wrong | Jonathan GlennieCuba's decisions will not only determine its own history and economic success, but also echo across the global south Continue reading...
Hopes for global tax regulation are unrealistic but tax transparency, as a condition of market access for multinationals, could happen nowIt might be strange hearing this from a banker, but there is not enough transparency around tax. The result is a situation that favours Alphabet (owner of Google), Amazon and Apple at potentially the expense of everyone else.
Concerns about possible US inflation also acted to push the US dollar higher against units such as the Indonesian rupiah and Malaysian ringgitAsia’s emerging currencies have have been hit hard by a wave of selling as financial markets bet on the prospect of Donald Trump pursuing protectionist trade policies.
by Katie Allen and Dominic Rushe in New York on (#214R1)
Warning of ‘muddled trading’ as Dow Jones rallies, FTSE 100 dips and concern grows over new presidency effect on global economyThe Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high on Thursday, rising more than 200 points as traders continued to absorb Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential race.Investors have been warned to brace for more sharp moves on financial markets as uncertainty endures over how Trump’s campaign rhetoric will translate into policies.Related: Dow Jones hits record high on Trump bump, but London market falters - as it happenedRelated: How America's new president will affect the global economy Continue reading...
A word of caution: the president-elect’s infrastructure plans appear to rely on money he hopes other people will provideAmerican investors seem naively trusting of President-elect Trump’s economic plans. On one hand, they say those wild campaign pledges to slap stiff tariffs on Chinese and Mexican imports in pursuit of the most protectionist US trade policy since the 1930s should not be taken too literally. On the other, they conclude that a Trump presidency definitely means heavy investment in infrastructure, which will be excellent news for all those suppliers of raw materials and equipment needed to upgrade roads, bridges, schools, tunnels, electricity networks and so on.Both thoughts are understandable, of course. Even Trump has never been firm on the idea of 45% tariffs on China. It was a threat “if they don’t behave,†he said during one debate, “it doesn’t have to be 45%, it could be lessâ€. Plenty of scope there to water down the policy. Continue reading...
by Rupert Neate (now), Graeme Wearden, Nick Fletcher on (#20WSD)
Wall Street reacted positively to the election of Donald Trump as the 45th US president, despite his victory sparking panic on global markets earlier in the day. But experts warned that the US, and global, economy faces a very uncertain future.
History suggests Donald Trump’s package for growth and jobs works but at a cost of higher inflation and a bigger budget deficitBecome a Guardian supporter or make a contributionBy voting for Donald Trump, Americans have chosen the candidate with the more radical programme for the economy. Hillary Clinton’s proposals were cautious, costed and conservative. By contrast, the president-elect is gambling that he can shift the US out of its post-financial crisis torpor through a mixture of tax cuts and spending increases even though they run the risk of higher inflation and a bigger budget deficit.Although Trump campaigned as an outsider, his policies have been tried before. Ronald Reagan said his tax cuts and extra spending for the Pentagon would generate higher revenues and balance the budget. It didn’t. Tax breaks for the rich and military Keynesianism sent the deficit rocketing.Related: Trump's economic policies: protectionism, low taxes and coal mines Continue reading...
From trade war with China to jobs turmoil in Mexico, Trump’s reign will pose new threats to already fragile world economyDonald Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections will have implications for the whole global economy. Continue reading...
The financial markets have been rocked by Donald Trump’s victory in the US election, but what are the president elect’s policies?Become a Guardian supporter or make a contributionAfter a long and bitter campaign for the US presidency, Donald Trump has triumphed over Hillary Clinton and the world’s financial markets have been rocked.For Trump’s supporters he represents a chance to shake up a system that many Americans feel has increased inequality and squeezed living standards. For less complacent investors, there are worries Trump’s anti-globalisation mantra will spread protectionism around the world, put up trade barriers and curb global economic growth. Furthermore, markets do not like unknowns and with Trump going to the White House they are dealing with a complete newcomer to politics. His administration is widely expected to mark a departure from the policies of his own Republican party as well as the outgoing Democrats.In terms of trade deals, both TTIP and the TPP now look dead in the water Continue reading...
Economic and political forecasters failed to predict the fall of the Berlin Wall and the 2008 recession – and this year has been even worse• Become a Guardian supporter or make a contributionGlobal markets were rocked by the stunning news from the US presidential election. The Mexican peso was down 12% at one point. The US dollar fell 2.5% against the yen. Markets have been hedging a Trump win with gold, which was up by $40 an ounce, or 3.2%. Uncertainty is in the air.It must be said that this has been a disastrous decade for professional forecasters of the economic and political varieties. Donald Trump was behind in the daily poll average published by Real Clear Politics every one of the past 95 days and won. On Monday 7 November, of the 10 national polls that were issued, nine had Trump behind. A couple of polling organisations did have it right but were ignored. It turns out that a Trump victory wasn’t a total surprise. The IBD/TIPP tracking poll, which was the most accurate in the previous three elections, 2004, 2008 and 2012, in its final poll on 8 November had Trump two points ahead. The LA Times tracking poll had Trump consistently ahead since the end of October and in its latest poll on Monday he was ahead by three. The biggest difference apparently involved weighting – that is, the process of adjusting a poll’s data to make sure it properly represents the diversity of the population.Related: Globalisation backlash enters new phase with Trump win Continue reading...
This is a political and cultural cataclysm that few believed would really happen. It’s a bleak day for America, and for the pluralism and diversity the country has come to stand for
Trump’s victory is a betrayal of ethnic minorities and women. Progressives must direct their energies to building an alternative to the failed neoliberal model
Goods trade deficit rose in September by £1.6bn to £12.7bn with exports falling by £200m despite many goods being cheaperBritain’s trade deficit with the rest of the world widened unexpectedly in September as the sharp fall in the pound since the Brexit vote failed to boost exports.The UK trade in goods deficit increased by £1.6bn over the month to £12.7bn. Imports rose £1.3bn to £38.8bn, while exports fell by £200m to £26.1bn. Imports of ships, materials, vehicles and oil were all up in September, the Office for National Statistics said.Related: Markets reassured by Trump victory speech after initial losses - live updates Continue reading...
by Jill Treanor, Nick Fletcher and Justin McCurry on (#20Y07)
Dollar weakens, Asian stocks down sharply and gold prices rally, but victory speech reassures traders• Become a Guardian supporter or make a contributionGlobal markets were rocked on Wednesday by Donald Trump’s victory in the US election but recovered from their worst falls as the president-elect made conciliatory remarks in his victory speech and Wall Street opened higher.As the scale of Trump’s success became clear, Asian stocks fell sharply, the dollar weakened and gold prices rallied as investors raced for cover amid anxiety about his economic policies.Related: US election 2016 live: Donald Trump defies polls and closes in on presidencyRelated: Presidential election sees markets and dollar plunge as Trump nears victory – live Continue reading...
The mogul’s victory is likely to mean structural changes for the US economy – and could herald similar shocks worldwide• Become a Guardian supporter or make a contributionSame story. Different country. Much, much bigger implications. That’s the economic message from Donald Trump’s victory in the year of shocks. By comparison, Brexit was a sideshow.If 1989 was the year that marked the beginning of the global age, 2016 has been the year when the basic tenets of globalisation have been challenged – first in the UK and now in the US. The wall came down in Berlin on a November night 27 years ago. The question now is whether they start going up again.Related: Markets reassured by Trump victory speech after initial losses - live updatesRelated: Will the US election mean the end of free trade? Continue reading...
From climate change to security, experts give their first thoughts on how a Trump win could change the country and the regionWe asked a panel of experts how a Donald Trump presidency could affect Australia, on everything from climate change policy to trade and regional security.Related: Donald Trump wins presidential election, plunging US into uncertain futureRelated: After the US result, the instinct of Australia's politicians was to soothe. That says a lot | Katharine MurphyRelated: Australian market loses $35bn as key states go Trump's wayRelated: 'Make Australia Great Again': rightwing MPs delight in likely Trump presidency Continue reading...
By giving more power to the regions, we can create a confident, more equal and outward-looking BritainIt’s official. The north-south divide in Britain is now wider than at any time since the beginning of the industrial revolution – wider than when Charles Dickens was writing about Victorian squalor, and wider than in the depression years of the 1930s, when George Orwell exposed the grinding poverty of northern England in The Road to Wigan Pier.Remarkable new evidence from a study by the academic Philip McCann, The UK Regional-National Economic Problem, shows that while economic output per head, measured by gross value added, is near £43,000 a year in London – and as high as £135,000 in inner west London – almost half the UK population lives, in regions where output per head is below £22,325.Nothing the chancellor’s autumn statement can offer will be sufficient to bridge this divideRelated: Brexit would widen the north-south divide as poorest areas stand to lose most | Peter Hetherington Continue reading...
Sugar levy | Migraine cure | Sweary women | Age-inappropriate clothing | CetaIn today’s Guardian there was a Tesco advert proudly stating that all their 251 drinks will be below the government’s proposed sugar levy. In other major supermarkets there are aisles full of similar drinks labelled “sugar-free†and even “healthy optionâ€. Most have added artificial sweeteners, which may not be fattening but are known to have negative side-effects. Why are they being allowed to get away with selling this stuff?
The port city was late to the party when it came to embracing urban regeneration. But, as next year’s UK City of Culture, it’s hoping to ride a wave of artistic and economic investment to compete with its noisy northern neighbours‘Change is happening!†says the message stencilled, in bright green, on a peeling wall just behind Hull’s new marina. And if that sounds a little wistful, given that right now it’s overlooking an empty car park surrounded by wire fencing, it has the underlying ring of truth.It’s two decades since I was last in Hull, frozen in my memory as one long Saturday night – short skirts, hot chips, scuffles in taxi queues, excitement edged with nerves. Back then I was working just over the Humber Bridge in Grimsby, and Hull was the bright light across the water, home of gigs and cavernous nightclubs and all the exotic thrills small towns lack. Those clubs are now mostly gone, but the tingling anticipation in the air is back. A city long buffeted by the wrong kinds of change now stands on the verge of potential renaissance; for Hull is next year’s official UK City of Culture, beneficiary of a public art project aiming to do here what similar European programmes did for Liverpool in 2008 and Glasgow in 1990.Related: Hull: 10 reasons to visit the UK city of culture 2017 Continue reading...
by Dimitri Zenghelis and Nicholas Stern on (#20TJF)
The world will never again build cities as rapidly as it does this century. If we are serious about limiting global warming, tackling air pollution and promoting innovative, resource-efficient growth, there is a narrow window of opportunityAlmost as staggering as the current enormous influx into cities across the globe is the dramatic slowdown in urbanisation that will follow it. The world is literally going to town on urbanisation – but it is a project that is both immense and historically fleeting.In less than 100 years, the world’s urban population is expected to double to 8 or 9 billion – accounting for the bulk of a projected global population of around 11 billion. Yet in all the centuries that follow this one, cities may add, at most, another billion to their ranks. So if this century is the most urbanising in history, it will also mark the end of humankind’s “great urbanisation†era.
The consequences of cuts made years ago are now becoming visible: rising food poverty, failing flood defences and disorder in the prison system“Austerity†is a term so abstract that, during the televised leaders debates at the last general election, the most commonly Googled phrase in Britain was “what is austerity?†That was after five years of it. Yes, workers suffered the longest squeeze in their wages since the 19th century, but the fall in living standards was somehow decoupled from the issue of cuts. Government cuts pursued the following strategy: to target people who were less likely to vote (such as young people) and who preferably were held in low esteem by wider society (such as benefit claimants); or where the consequences would not be felt for a long time. A case in point: the prison system.Over the last few days, the crisis enveloping Britain’s prison system stopped being a warning scribbled in press releases. It become an actuality. This weekend, up to 200 inmates rioted in Bedford prison. Yesterday, two prisoners escaped from Pentonville prison and are now on the run. And on the same day, there were reports of a riot in Exeter prison. Continue reading...
North Sea oil shutdowns contributed to Britain’s maufacturing sector shrinking in the third quarterBritain’s industrial sector shrank unexpectedly in September as North Sea oil shutdowns dragged output lower, weighing on the broader economy in the third quarter.Industrial output fell by 0.4% over the month, matching August’s drop and disappointing expectations that production would be flat. While mining and quarrying shrank by 3.8% according to the Office for National Statistics, manufacturing performed better than expected with output growing by 0.6%.Related: UK manufacturers putting off investment plans, poll shows Continue reading...
Decision that Tories cannot trigger Brexit alone had widespread impact. As sterling soared, the rightwing press was abhorredWelcome to the Guardian’s weekly Brexit briefing, a summary of developments as Britain moves in fits and starts towards the EU exit. If you’d like to receive it as a weekly email, please sign up here.Producing the Guardian’s thoughtful, in-depth journalism is expensive – but supporting us isn’t. If you value our Brexit coverage, please become a Guardian supporter and help make our future more secure. Thank you.I worry that a betrayal may be near at hand … I now fear that every attempt will be made to block or delay the triggering of article 50. If this is so, they have no idea of the level of public anger they will provoke.I believe in and value the independence of our judiciary. I also value the freedom of our press. These both underpin our democracy.There’s a balance between consulting parliament, and not undermining the government’s negotiating position ... If parliament insists on setting out a detailed minimum negotiating position, that will quickly become the maximum possible offer from the negotiating partners ... In other words, the whole approach is designed to wreck the negotiation.I hope this doesn’t cause even more vagueness and more of a delay, because that’s bad for the UK as well as for the EU ... One of the biggest risks of this process is that it will lead to a very long period of uncertainty.Related: A 2017 general election? Here’s why the Tories may not storm to victory | John CurticeUntil now, May has combined secretiveness with hinting that a tough negotiation stance on migration would make single market access difficult. That approach will not withstand the impact of the need to consult parliament. She must face the likelihood that both the Commons and the Lords will focus on securing single market access in ways that could split the cabinet and provoke resignations. The courts have left May little alternative but to change course on the most important issue of her premiership.There are times when MPs need to rise above their party interests, their own interests and the views of their constituents. That may risk being voted out, but they may earn more respect by standing up for the national interest as best they can determine: that’s what representative democracy is for. Brexit is the greatest threat to national wellbeing since the war, and this will test the mettle not just of individual MPs, but of the nature and purpose of a representative democratic system.In March EU leaders will commemorate the 60th anniversary of the bloc’s founding treaty of Rome. The 27 will pay tribute to the ideal of integration that has given Europe its longest era of peace and prosperity in history. They will affirm that the EU does not imprison or weaken nations but multiplies their strengths when they act together. Above all, they will pledge to save their marriage because they regard the alternative as unbearably worse.No technicality will be found to stop Brexit, nobody will snap their fingers and wake us up. It’s not enough to point to looming catastrophes and say what we don’t want; it’s not enough to concentrate on what we might lose. We need to consider what could be better, in a Brexited Britain. That is dauntingly open-ended until we establish whose and which interests we want to press.I've written a basic law lesson for those criticising judges about the #brexit judgment. Judges are not #enemiesofthepeople pic.twitter.com/WMfZEkmzUq Continue reading...
As families face annual cuts of up to £6,000, the government’s vilification of the poorest has turned hearts to stoneThe axe fell yesterday, as the cap on what a family can receive in benefits was cut by £3,000 a year in London, double that in the rest of the country. But that’s not the worst of what’s to come. Do cuts summon up “I, Daniel Blake†indignation? No, pollsters find the benefit cap among the most popular of government policies.Related: Creating child poverty for a whole new generation. Take a bow, Theresa May | Aditya ChakraborttyRelated: This callous benefit cap reduction will hit families hard this Christmas Continue reading...
Barclaycard says spending rose 5.5% in October, but warns spending growth could subside amid inflation fearsBumper box office takings, strong trade in pubs and a rush for winter clothes drove a solid rise in consumer spending last month, according to new figures.Barclaycard said spending rose 5.5% on a year earlier in October, the strongest growth since it started publishing monthly health checks on consumer finances in 2011. But it warned the trend of solid spending growth could soon fizzle out as households worry about inflation.Related: Six MPs make surprise visit to Sports Direct's Shirebrook warehouse Continue reading...
Tax and spending experts predict slow growth and high inflation will lead to hole in public finances by end of current parliamentBritain’s leading tax and spending experts have warned Philip Hammond that his options are limited in this month’s autumn statement after predicting that slower growth and higher inflation will punch a £25bn hole in the public finances by the end of the current parliament.The Institute for Fiscal Studies said that if economic forecasters were right about the impact of Brexit, the new chancellor would have to extend austerity after the next election in order to finally eradicate the budget deficit built up during the financial crisis of 2008-09.Related: Half UK budget deficit 'is down to job destruction in older industrial areas' Continue reading...