Pound hits new high for 2016 and FTSE 100 a two-month peak amid warnings about potential losses in event of Brexit

Markets around the globe are anxiously waiting to learn if Britain votes to leave the European Union

Greater devolution to urban regions can help restore the loss of faith in government exposed by the referendum campaignWere the prospect of a national government led by Boris Johnson and leaned on by Nigel Farage not blood-chilling enough, the referendum campaign produced opinion poll outcomes to freeze the bones. I don’t mean those underlining how misinformed voters are about EU migration or the reach of EU law, perturbing though they were. I mean the one that found that 46% of those wanting to leave the EU thought the authorities would probably rig the result of Thursday’s vote, and that more than a quarter of them believed MI5 would be involved in the fix.Stop laughing. It’s time to cry. Conspiracy theories thrive in climates of mistrust. Maybe some of those respondents were winding the pollster up, but the leave campaign harnessed deep cynicism about politicians, governance and anyone described as “expert” into one, big, overarching assertion that the EU is one big establishment stitch-up. The notion that shadowy secret service personnel have been deployed at polling stations in order to corrupt the democratic process may be absurd. But it is out there and it is dangerous. We know what extreme actions such views can fuel. Continue reading...

In this precarious environment of work and welfare, universal income could guarantee a basic standard of living previously promised by both

Sterling hits a six-month high amid expectations that Britain will vote to stay in the EU referendumEU referendum polling day - live updates

Migration rules, trade and the value of the dollar could all be shaken up if Britons vote to go it aloneBritain votes on Thursday in a referendum to decide whether it should remain part of the European Union or leave.

Both sides have been guilty of negative tactics, from warning of economic disaster to focusing on the supposed threat posed by migrantsWhen it comes to voting day, what is the more potent weapon: hope or fear?Judging by rival campaigns in Britain’s imminent EU referendum, there can only be one answer. Both sides routinely accuse the other of adopting “Project Fear” tactics. There is no shortage of evidence. Continue reading...

Decade on from its less than prescient April 2006 report, Fund’s view remains unbalanced – this time with too many false alarms

Société Générale’s Albert Edwards points to recovery after ERM exit as he dismisses pessimism over a devaluation of sterlingOne of the City’s leading economists has countered George Soros’s prediction that a Brexit vote will lead to a damaging 20% fall in the value of the pound by saying that a depreciation would be good for the economy.Albert Edwards, global strategist at Société Générale, said in a research note to the bank’s clients that a reduction in the value of the currency would be as beneficial as it was during the period after Black Wednesday in September 1992, when Soros’s speculative attack on sterling drove the UK out of the exchange rate mechanism (ERM).Related: FTSE 100 hits two-week high on eve of Brexit vote – business live Continue reading...

I hoped the EU would spread social democracy. Instead it has imposed austerity to pay for an unregulated financial system. Working-class people are right to vote against itOn Thursday, despite a wobble over the horrible killing of Jo Cox and Ukip’s appalling poster, I shall be voting to leave the EU – the same way I voted in the 1975 referendum. However, there is no straight line from one to the other. I have been for many years a strong supporter of the EU and am slightly surprised to be making this choice. But an EU that is now based on mass unemployment and mass migration is not one worth supporting.Related: Of course Ukip plays the race card. But I’m still voting for Brexit | Dreda Say Mitchell Continue reading...

The BMA has said that leave campaigners’ claims of a Brexit boost for the health service are ‘farcical and fatuous’ Continue reading...

Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton picked apart Donald Trump’s economic plan and financial record on Tuesday, saying that if elected president he would bankrupt America ‘like one of his casinos’. Clinton also poked at Trump’s refusal to release his tax returns, suggesting the real estate mogul ‘isn’t as rich as he claims’ Continue reading...

While UK voters have good reasons to either stay in or leave the European Union this Thursday, a British exit would only hurt the US

Central bankers from ECB and US Federal Reserve warn they are on high alert over outcome of vote, which still appears too close to callThe two most powerful central bankers have warned that they are on high alert for financial and economic fallout from the EU referendum, amid signs that the result of Thursday’s vote still hangs in the balance.On a day that saw Monday’s big rises in shares and the pound halted by polls showing the race too close to call, Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, said he was prepared to use every available tool to protect the eurozone if the UK decides to leave. Continue reading...

Markets are still jittery ahead of Thursday’s referendum vote

Federal Reserve chair says a UK vote to leave the European Union could have ‘significant economic repercussions’, including on the US’s financial outlookThe Federal Reserve signalled it was likely to hold any imminent interest rate rise on Tuesday as chair Janet Yellen warned of the impact of Britain’s possible exit from the European Union, slower job growth and global worries about China on US economic growth.Yellen has been warning of the impact of jittery investors and volatile markets over the last few months. Her comments come after two months of lackluster reports on the US jobs market and growing signs of nervousness about the UK referendum on European Union membership on US stock markets. Continue reading...

The US has a housing crisis on a scale so far unimaginable here, but new rules to restrict access to social housing put the UK on the same pathAgainst the background of the UK Housing and Planning Act, the US experience of deregulated, market-driven, privatised housing policy provides a stark warning to this country.US public housing, an approximate equivalent to UK council housing, has never been part of the mainstream. With its origins in the 1930s New Deal, it was only ever allowed to augment the private sector – never challenge it. Although there remain significant concentrations of public housing in US cities, the pejorative image of housing projects has provided political cover for under-investment and marginalisation, to the point where public housing is deemed the housing of last resort.Related: Sadiq Khan must decide who to side with: residents or developers? Continue reading...

For the current year as a whole, the chancellor is expecting the deficit to be cut by 23% to £55.5bn, so this has been a pretty unimpressive start to the yearGeorge Osborne could be history by the weekend so it is easy to see why the chancellor might have paid less attention than usual to the latest figures charting progress in reducing Britain’s budget deficit.But if the financial markets are right in their assumption that the UK will vote to stay in the EU on Thursday, it won’t be long before investors start to focus on some sticky economic problems that have not gone away while politics has been dominated by Europe.Related: Brexit uncertainty hits plans to cut budget deficit Continue reading...

Figures show government has overshot forecasts, casting doubt on Osborne’s aim to achieve surplus by 2019-20

Average UK household had £201 a week of discretionary income in May, up 7.2% on same month in 2015, according to reportThe “national living wage” and falling cost of food and transport have improved UK household finances, according to a report.Asda’s monthly income tracker shows that the average UK household had £201 a week of discretionary income in May. This was £13 (7.2%) more than in May 2015 and the highest amount since the supermarket started collecting income data in 2008. Continue reading...

Exclusive: Currency speculator warns devaluation would mean more disruption than when UK dropped out of ERM in 1992George Soros: the Brexit crash will make all of you poorerThe world’s most famous currency speculator has warned a vote on Thursday for Britain to leave the EU would trigger a bigger and more damaging fall for sterling than the day he forced Britain out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism almost a quarter of a century ago.George Soros, writing in the Guardian, said that a Brexit vote would spark a “black Friday” for the UK, but the devaluation of sterling would bring none of the benefits to the economy that it enjoyed after it dropped out of the ERM on 16 September 1992 – Black Wednesday.Related: The Brexit crash will make all of you poorer – be warned | George SorosRelated: The Guardian view on the EU referendum: keep connected and inclusive, not angry and isolated | EditorialRelated: Sterling guesswork as financial sector calculates Brexit effect Continue reading...

Sterling bounces back from weeks of heavy selling as traders react to apparent shift in support towards EU remain voteThe pound posted its biggest one-day rise for almost eight years and the FTSE 100 share index jumped 3% on Monday, as traders reacted to an apparent shift in support towards a remain vote in Thursday’s EU referendum.A shift in opinion polls suggesting the remain camp had regained ground was enough to send the pound soaring. After coming under heavy selling pressure in recent weeks, it rallied more than 2.3% against a basket of other big currencies, the biggest percentage gain since October 2008. It rose more than 2% against both the US dollar and the euro. Continue reading...

Biggest one-day jump for the pound since 2008, as the FTSE 100 surges by more than 3%

The British capital is strongly in favour of staying in the European Union and strongly connected with it tooIn 1975, the last time Britain held a European referendum, Londoners voted resoundingly for staying in what was then the European Economic Community. The margin was 67%-33% - a thumping 2 to 1. Yet the capital, along with other urban areas, was not the centre of pro-Europe sentiment. The shire counties of England were even keener on economic integration with their continental neighbours. London was eurosceptic by comparison.Today, it appears to be a little more eurosceptic that it was 41 years ago. And yet, unlike the rest of the country, it is still very firmly europhile. A recent poll suggested that Londoners will vote to remain in the European Union (EU) on Thursday by a 60%-40% margin, confirming that the metropolis is the most Europe-friendly part of the entire UK with the possible exception of Scotland. Continue reading...

Economists are agreed, as they never were on the euro, that quitting the EU will make Britain poorer. How strange, in an economically conservative country, that many are refusing to listenThe economic debate in British general elections has become a ritual. The manifestos are published, the Institute for Fiscal Studies pores over them and explains how, say, Conservative tax plans imply forgoing revenues of £10bn or so, or how Labour pledges on public services would require spending an extra £10bn or so instead. Each side declares a “black hole” in the finances of the other, and spends the rest of the campaign alleging that the other side has a secret plan to fill the gap with either stealthy tax rises, or the closure of NHS wards.It is never a particularly edifying argument, but it bears testament to the broad mainstream consensus about how to make Britain prosper. For the numbers involved in the tax-and-spending squabble are typically of the order of a percentage or two of government spending, or a fraction of a percent of national income. For economic radicals, this makes elections a pathetically narrow choice. For progressives, the extreme deference that has to be shown to the bean-counters’ concerns about sums which could easily get lost in the rounding of the public accounts is frustrating. British democrats on all sides, however, have learned to live with it, accepting that elections have to be fought this way, given the extreme caution of most British voters in matters financial. Continue reading...

‘Economic arguments are clearly in favour of remaining in the EU’, economics professors writeTen of the world’s leading economists have issued a warning about the consequences of the UK leaving the EU as the City prepares for the pound to plunge and shares to fall in the event of a Brexit vote in Thursday’s referendum.Related: We Nobel prize-winning economists believe the UK is better off in the EU | Letters Continue reading...

Economic issues are central to the UK referendum debate. We believe that the UK would be better off economically inside the EU. British firms and workers need full access to the single market. In addition, Brexit would create major uncertainty about Britain’s alternative future trading arrangements, both with the rest of Europe and with important markets like the USA, Canada and China. And these effects, though one-off, would persist for many years. Thus the economic arguments are clearly in favour of remaining in the EU.

Major changes to the capital’s most famous shopping street look to be on their way, though how closely they match Sadiq Khan’s manifesto promise remains to be seenSadiq Khan is not the first London mayor to pledge to transform Oxford Street from a clogged, smogged motor highway lined with shops into a clean, green avenue of retail walking therapy, but he just might be the last. That is because he just might do it - or, at least, provide the political drive to help others to take big strides in that direction.If it happens it will be, in part, because Khan will have brought the same energy and know-how to bear on the problems threatening one of the most famous shopping streets in the world that characterised his capture of City Hall. It will also be because wider circumstances have rendered continuing inaction unacceptable.Work with Westminster Council, local businesses, Transport for London and taxis to pedestrianise Oxford Street. I will start by bringing back car-free days and possibly weekends before moving towards full pedestrianisation. Our eventual ambition should be to turn one of the world’s most polluted streets into one of the world’s finest public spaces - a tree-lined avenue from Tottenham Court Road to Marble Arch. Continue reading...

Europe has been moving in a direction that rightwing Conservatives would tend to supportIt is now nearly nine years since the problems of three hedge funds heralded the arrival of global financial and economic chaos. Britain’s EU referendum this week is the latest manifestation of that crisis.That is not the way the debate in the UK has been framed. For one side, the decision is all about taking back control, especially over immigration. For the other, it is about the potential consequences for the economy in general and individuals in particular.Related: We Nobel prize-winning economists believe the UK is better off in the EU | LettersRelated: Brussels isn’t the bad guy. Tory cuts cause Britain’s troublesRelated: The humiliation of Greece is an act of economic war by the EU | Letters Continue reading...

Lack of government investment in five key areas – jobs, vacancies, wages, housing and the NHS – is the real reason we’re sufferingDon’t blame the EU for your troubles, blame Tory austerity. This is the message Labour voters should hear from Jeremy Corbyn. It is a message Ed Miliband could have made more forcefully during his term as Labour leader, when the conversation on the doorstep turned to immigration. Instead, he appeared to choke with embarrassment.Corbyn has a higher embarrassment threshold. He could look the immigration question in the eye and not blink. Unfortunately, the Islington North MP considers debating immigration off limits. Continue reading...

With the referendum approaching, we round up experts’ opinions on what effect they think a Leave vote would have on the economic landscapeA vote to quit the European Union would have many consequences for the UK, some more apparent than others. George Osborne argues that life after Brexit would be characterised by market turmoil and a shock to the government’s finances that will force ministers to impose even more austerity. Here we look at what business groups, analysts and economic forecasters have said will be the effect on the economic landscape should the UK vote to leave. Continue reading...

Annual report on the British economy predicts ‘negative and substantial’ effects if Britain left the EULeaving the EU would hit British living standards, stoke inflation and wipe up to 5.5% off GDP, the International Monetary Fund has warned with less than a week to go until the referendum.The IMF used its annual report on the British economy to say Brexit would plunge the UK into recession next year and that it could see no economic advantage in leaving the EU.Related: IMF chief urges Britain to stay in Europe Continue reading...

Latest tranche staves off country’s most pressing problems, but there is widespread concern the deal is simply buying timeThe prospect of Europe’s febrile politics being injected with another dose of Greek summer drama has been averted after creditors signed off on billions of euros of bailout loans that will enable Athens to make imminent debt repayments.After months of negotiations over the terms of the €86bn (£68bn) rescue programme thrashed out last year, the country’s third, eurozone lenders said Greece had made enough policy progress to warrant the disbursement of further aid. Continue reading...

Praising British openness to other nationalities, Christine Lagarde warns of a worrying rise in economic nationalismThe head of the International Monetary Fund has made an impassioned plea for the UK to vote to stay in the EU, arguing that membership of the bloc has made the economy stronger and the country more diverse and creative.Related: Bank of England: economy will be hit hard if Britain leaves EU Continue reading...

It’s a fantasy that the EU will trade with us on our terms. Only by remaining will we have any cloutAlmost everyone agrees that the EU is not working well. It is also true that on almost any scenario, whether we are in or out, this region will remain our biggest and closest market. Whether it thrives or not is, or should be, of fundamental interest to us. All that matters is whether it thrives more or less by the UK being out or in.Related: What happens next if Britain votes to leave the EU?If the vote is to remain, the UK has a wholly new platform from which to lead the debate for reform Continue reading...

Former London mayor suggests Mark Carney was talking economy down by warning that pound could fallBoris Johnson has dismissed fears about the value of sterling in the event of Brexit and suggested the Bank of England governor, Mark Carney, is guilty of talking the economy down.Related: Why the Bank of England was right to reveal Brexit anxiety Continue reading...

UK central bank warns that big economic decisions are already being delayed by uncertainty over the EU vote, as it leaves interest rates on hold yet again

Poll finds businesses in London and Scotland most concerned about Brexit, with those in Midlands, northern and eastern England most optimisticA third of businesses in the UK think Brexit would be bad for the economy, according to a poll that also shows company bosses in London and Scotland are most worried about a vote to leave the EU in next week’s referendum.The survey of 3,394 business owners and finance directors found those in the Midlands, east of England and northern England were the most optimistic about Brexit being helpful to the economy. Continue reading...

Andrew Cox and Simon Winfield have much in common but disagree on how to vote in the referendum. Here they discuss what Brexit would mean for businessAndrew Cox and Simon Winfield run businesses in the Black Country. Both export to the EU and beyond. Both worry about UK skills shortages and both want more help for manufacturers. But there is one thing they don’t agree on: how to vote in the EU referendum.Cox believes Britain needs to shake off the constraints of EU membership to flourish. Winfield reckons staying in the EU is vital to his business and to Britain’s prospects. Continue reading...

Central bank’s monetary policy committee says pound likely to tumble and markets would react erratically to Brexit, as interest rates remain at 0.5%The Bank of England has issued a fresh warning that a vote to leave the EU in next week’s referendum risks knocking economic growth, pushing the pound sharply lower and sending shockwaves through the global economy.Related: Bank of England warns Brexit uncertainty is hurting the economy – business liveRelated: Cameron criticises former Tory leaders who question Bank over EU Continue reading...

Defaults in the hugely indebted corporate sector could derail state-owned banks, triggering a systemic crisis, economist saysChina’s total debt was more than double its gross domestic product in 2015, a government economist has said, warning that debt linkages between the state and industry could be “fatal” for the world’s second largest economy.

All the day’s news as chancellor warns of £30bn black hole if UK leaves the EU, and Nigel Farage leads pro-Brexit flotilla along the Thames

This week we learned that the directors of the housebuilding company Persimmon are to share a bonus of £600m (Executive pay is obscene – restructuring the economy is the only way to curb it, G2, 14 June). This revelation was greeted with calls for these executives to “show restraint”, given the ongoing shortage of affordable housing. After all, as the Conservative party tells us, “we’re all in this together”.I was reminded of an earlier campaign to encourage the rich to show restraint and demonstrate solidarity with the people disadvantaged by government policy. I’m thinking of events in 1795, when wheat prices in England rose precipitously. Working people relied on bread, and spent a significant percentage of household income on it. Concerned that the high cost of bread would cause hardship, and that hardship might lead to unrest, MPs called on the wealthy to show restraint. Gentlemen up and down the country signed pledges and issued public statements affirming that until prices fell they and their households would eat more economical wholegrain breads, and would not use scarce grain for non-essential purposes such as in hair powder. Continue reading...

Barclays will be hardest hit if Britain votes to leave EU and all dividend payouts will be axed, say bank experts at BernsteinBank shares are likely to fall sharply if there was a vote for Brexit and dividend payouts to shareholders would be axed, according to a forecast by City analysts.Related: No sleep for City banks on EU referendum night Continue reading...

Anti-EU campaigners send a flotilla of fishing boats up the Thames on Wednesday. The group was organised by Ukip leader Nigel Farage. They were met by Bob Geldof on a pleasure cruiser and pro-EU campaigners and clashed, via loudspeaker, over the issue of fishing under EU law. Geldof accused the Ukip leader of being a fraud

Number of non-UK nationals working in Britain is up by 229,000 to 3.34 million year on yearFor now, all UK economic data has to be seen through the prism of the looming EU referendum. It is not a question of whether the figures are good or bad in themselves, but whether they are helpful to camp remain or camp leave.In the past week, the releases have been in favour of the Brexiteers. Industrial production was up, the trade deficit narrowed and inflation was better than the financial markets had expected. The latest report on the labour market continued the trend.Related: Unemployment rate at record low despite stall in private sector hiring Continue reading...

Almost three quarters of UK working-age population employed with latest increase mainly due to rise in self-employmentUnemployment dropped to its lowest rate since 2005 in April, to a level which without the looming Brexit vote would set off interest rate warning bells at the Bank of England. .The unemployment rate fell to 5% from 5.1% in March, while the number of jobs in the economy jumped 55,000 from March to set a record high employment rate of 74.2%. Once the jobless rate falls below 5%, the Bank believes wage pressures start to build. Continue reading...

Rather than slashing spending, the government would be wise to take a pragmatic approach to the economy if we left the EUPicture the scene. It is 28 June, five days after Britain has decided to leave the European Union. Since the referendum, the financial markets have been panic-stricken. Shares and the pound have fallen, despite the efforts of the Bank of England to calm nerves.David Cameron has called a meeting of the cabinet to be addressed by George Osborne. Eight days before the vote, the chancellor had warned that a Brexit vote would force him to deliver an emergency budget that would raise £30bn – half from tax increases and half from spending cuts.Related: George Osborne: vote for Brexit and face £30bn of taxes and spending cuts Continue reading...

Thinktank paints a grim picture of immediate aftermath and beyond if Britain votes to leave EU, including recessionA vote to leave the European Union would trigger economic and political convulsions in the UK, plunging the country back into recession and sending the pound sharply lower, a forecasting group has warned.Investors would rush to dump UK assets including shares and bonds in the immediate aftermath of voters choosing Brexit, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit.Related: FTSE 100 hits three-month low as Brexit fears grow Continue reading...