PwC predicts UK will be hit in short term by Brexit, but will outperform US, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan by 2050The UK could shake off the near-term impact of Brexit to become the fastest-growing economy in the G7 group of rich countries between now and 2050, according to a report that paints a bright outlook for the country’s prospects outside the EU.Consultants PwC say the UK economy will not escape entirely unscathed from the decision to leave the bloc and that it will dampen growth prospects in the short term. But the brunt of the impact would be felt by 2020 and in the years that follow the UK would outperform its peers thanks to its relatively large working age population and its flexible economy.Related: Voting for Brexit hasn’t saved us from secretive trade deals Continue reading...

The ECB’s Mario Draghi is right to warn against relaxing rules such as Dodd-Frank aimed at preventing another financial crisis“The last thing we want at this point in time is a relaxation of regulation,” said Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank on Monday. He is right to worry. Relaxation of financial regulation is exactly what Donald Trump has in mind and the effects could be felt around the world.The US president seems to have accepted the half-baked idea that US banks are somehow so tied down by international regulations that they are obliged to hoard capital that could be used for lending to the American economy. “I have so many people, friends of mine, who have nice businesses who can’t borrow money,” said Trump when he signed an executive order last week.Related: British firms suffer Brexit impact, as ECB's Draghi warns on US protectionism – as it happened Continue reading...

Half of UK bosses report that their firms are suffering from the vote to leave the EU; ECB’s Draghi worried by US administration comments

Sartre’s Huis Clos has three damned souls arguing in a room for eternity. Greece has Tsipras, Schäuble and Lagarde. Now there’s a fourth: enter stage right Donald TrumpPut three people in a room who can’t get on with each other. Condemn them to stay there for all eternity while they torture each other. Sit and watch as the gruesome story plays out. And what do you have?One answer is the 1944 existentialist play by Jean-Paul Sartre, Huis Clos. Another is the story of the neverending Greek debt crisis in which the three main characters are Alexis Tsipras, Wolfgang Schäuble and Christine Lagarde.

The current economy seems to defy the Bank of England’s predictions. Perhaps that is because pay growth has become so much harder to forecastOn the face of it, the Bank of England’s freshly minted forecast for this year looked rosy. A glance at the headline figure of 2% growth in the quarterly inflation report was much better than the Bank’s gloomy forecast last year of 0.8%.A 2% growth rate will again put the UK in the top rank of developed world nations and have City analysts scratching their heads over the apparent strength of the UK economy. How, they ask, with uncertainty clouding the horizon, can the great British consumer be so confident about prospects and merrily carry on spending? Continue reading...

Once the UK leaves the EU, Liam Fox will be presented with arrangements more secretive and toxic than anything the EU has ever demandedA turbocharged version of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) could be heading Britain’s way after Theresa May’s Brexit white paper. That’s the upsetting irony for those (and there were a few) who voted to leave the European Union to escape nasty trade deals that involve secret courts to resolve corporate disputes.These are the courts that some of the world’s biggest companies have used when they want to overturn local laws that jeopardise their profits. Tobacco company Philip Morris was a keen exponent. Its legal suits in Australia, Uruguay and others against plain cigarette packaging caused an outcry and cost the respective governments millions of pounds in legal fees, even though it failed. Continue reading...

The Resolution Foundation’s prediction that inequalities are going to grow (UK faces return to inequality of Thatcher years, 1 February) makes gloomy reading. Sadly it is underestimated because it takes no account of cuts in what Barbara Castle, when she was secretary of state at the Department of Health and Social Security 40 years ago, called “the social wage”. By this she meant “the publicly provided services which mean so much to family healthcare, education, housing and a good environment”. She estimated that in 1975 the social wage added £20 a week to the average working household. At the time the average full-time weekly wage of a male manual worker was £52 and a female manual worker £31.Every week you have reported cuts not only to health, education and social care but also to parks, museums, libraries, children’s centres, buses and public lavatories. All these services are essential to a caring society and can only be provided collectively. They are part of our social fabric and the more threadbare this becomes the less autonomy children, people with disabilities and older, frail people enjoy. At the same time it becomes harder for their families to support them. Instead of insisting that families should do more (and they already do a great deal – there are five times as many family and friends caring for older people as there are paid carers), the government should reverse the massive cuts made to local authorities’ budgets and increase the “social wage”.

Rolling coverage of the first American employment report since Donald Trump became US president

Political uncertainty drove investment demand up by 70% in 2016, while global demand was at highest level since 2013The Brexit vote and the election of Donald Trump drove global demand for gold to a four-year high in 2016, as pension funds and other institutional investors piled into the precious metal while higher prices put consumers off jewellery purchases.Global gold demand rose 2% last year to reach 4,309 tonnes, the highest level since 2013, according to a report from the World Gold Council, which represents gold miners.Related: Gold: key trends helping the metal keep its shine Continue reading...

Country faces critical few weeks as it struggles to meet bailout conditions and pressures rise in Germany and US

Key sector’s first slowdown for four months in Markit/Cips PMI report could point to wider trendWarnings that Britain is heading for a sharp increase in inflation have intensified after a key business survey showed companies in the services sector are grappling with their biggest rise in costs for almost six years.The report into the UK economy’s biggest sector, which spans banks to hotels and hairdressers, showed firms suffered their first slowdown for four months in January. This suggests the economy lost momentum at the start of 2017.Related: Bank of England sharply raises UK growth forecastThe 3 UK #PMI surveys show companies' costs are rising at the joint-fastest rate since the global financial crisis pic.twitter.com/wOVzjoqiIv Continue reading...

The biggest rise in inequality since Thatcher is on its way, bringing economic instability, poverty, poor health, increased violence and fear among neighboursHomelessness and child poverty have risen, the NHS is in dire financial straits, understaffed prisons have record suicide rates, the elderly lack social care – yet the rich continue to get richer, and continue to avoid taxes. This is an expression of abject moral bankruptcy.But, if the Resolution Foundation’s forecast is right, this is just a prelude to the biggest rise in inequality since that seen under Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s. And with more inequality there will be a growing need for services of every kind – including more prisons and police. An increasing body of scientific evidence has shown that almost all of the problems related to lower social status get worse when inequality escalates. That goes for poor health and child wellbeing, for violence, school bullying and lower maths and literacy scores.Related: UK faces return to inequality of Thatcher years, says reportRelated: This is the most dangerous time for our planet | Stephen Hawking Continue reading...

His promises have rallied the Dow Jones – but his inconsistent, erratic and destructive policies will take a toll on growthWhen Donald Trump was elected president of the US, stock markets rallied impressively. Investors were initially giddy about Trump’s promises of fiscal stimulus, deregulation of energy, health care and financial services, and steep cuts in corporate, personal, estate, and capital-gains taxes. But will the reality of Trumponomics sustain a continued rise in equity prices?It is little wonder that corporations and investors have been happy. This traditional Republican embrace of trickle-down supply-side economics will mostly favour corporations and wealthy individuals, while doing almost nothing to create jobs or raise blue-collar workers’ incomes. According to the non-partisan Tax Policy Center, almost half of the benefits from Trump’s proposed tax cuts would go to the top 1% of income earners.Related: Strong dollar drags US growth to slowest pace since 2011 Continue reading...

Mark Carney and colleagues have been taken by surprise by the economy’s strong performance despite the Brexit voteThe Bank of England’s inflation report was supposed to be a dull affair. The City thought the quarterly health check of the UK economy would be a bit of a yawn.Big misjudgment, as it happens.Related: Bank of England sharply raises UK growth forecast Continue reading...

Central bank predicts economy will grow by 2% this year as consumers and businesses appear to shrug off Brexit bluesThe Bank of England has painted a brighter outlook for the UK economy this year, with faster growth, lower unemployment and a more modest rise in inflation.After further signs that consumers and businesses have shrugged off the Brexit vote, the Bank revised its earlier gloomy forecasts to predict the economy would grow 2% this year - matching its 2016 performance.Related: Bank of England faces fresh embarrassment as tears up its forecasts | Larry ElliottRelated: Bank of England raises growth forecast and leaves interest rates on hold - business live Continue reading...

Yellen’s position as head of the Federal Reserve makes her an ideal role model for women in a male-dominated field, but Trump threatens to cut her tenure shortWhen Janet Yellen was sworn in as the chair of the US Federal Reserve three years ago this month, she made history. A fact that did not escape President Obama: “I should add that she’ll be the first woman to lead the Fed in its 100-year history,” said the man whose own appointment was also a historical first.Now she may be history. As a candidate Donald Trump said he would get rid of Yellen, and he could nominate her successor by summer, rendering her a lame duck at a time when the Fed is coming under ever greater scrutiny as rates rise for the first time since the recession.Related: The US Federal Reserve has created a 'false economy', Trump says Continue reading...

Report says north of England is missing out on growth and jobs due to poor transport connections to airports and portsTheresa May’s attempt to rebalance the UK economy risks being derailed without a transport revolution to modernise links to the north of England’s airports, business leaders have warned.An independent commission found that the north of England had capacity for an extra 60 million air passengers but was being held back by outdated road and rail links. Continue reading...

US central bank resists raising interest rates, despite strengthening US economy, on day of strong factory date from across the globe

The latest figures suggest a rosy outlook for manufacturing, but rising costs indicate there may be troubles aheadIt’s looking good for Britain’s long-suffering manufacturers. Order books are strong, the global economy is picking up and the weakness of the pound is making exports more competitive. Industry is on a roll.Well, maybe. Nobody likes to be a party pooper but we’ve been here before. Many times before, in fact. Over the past four decades there have been periods – sometimes quite lengthy periods – when it has looked as if a new dawn is breaking for manufacturing. Yet the promised renaissance has never happened.Related: Jump in import costs dents strong January for UK manufacturing Continue reading...

Sector posts sixth month of expanding output despite record rise in costs, which are expected to increase further over 2017A record rise in the cost of imports in January has taken the shine off a strong performance by the manufacturing sector, which has rebounded since the Brexit vote to record its sixth consecutive months of expanding output.Manufacturers were forced to hike the cost of their goods by one of the widest margins in one month after the slump in the pound triggered a record rise in the cost of imports, according to the Markit/Cips purchasing managers survey.Related: Weak pound sends UK factory costs soaring at record rate – business live Continue reading...

The US president, who said countries ‘play the market while we sit like a bunch of dummies’, signals possible retreat from strong dollar policyJapan has rejected Donald Trump’s claims that Tokyo was deliberately weakening the yen to gain an unfair trade advantage over the US.

Leading economic thinktank the NIESR expects 1.7% growth this year but says Brexit will hit trade in the long termThe surprising resilience of consumer spending in the months since the Brexit vote has forced one of the UK’s leading economic thinktanks to revise up its growth forecasts for the second time since the referendum.In its quarterly health check of the economy, the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said it now expected growth of 1.7% this year – only slightly down on the 2% recorded in 2016.Related: UK GDP figures show solid end to 2016 despite Brexit vote Continue reading...

Resolution Foundation says inflation, welfare cuts and squeeze on pay will punish least well-off hardestPressure on the government to help struggling Britons has intensified after a leading thinktank warned that falling living standards for the poor threatened the biggest rise in inequality since Margaret Thatcher was prime minister.The Resolution Foundation said Theresa May would need to make good on her pledge to support “just about managing” households as it released a report showing that rising inflation and an end to recent strong jobs growth would hit the least well-off hardest. Continue reading...

Peter Navarro, head of new National Trade Council, claims currency is ‘grossly undervalued’, sending it to eight-week highDonald Trump’s top trade adviser has hit out at Germany and accused the country of gaining an unfair trade advantage from the “grossly undervalued” euro.In a sign that the Trump administration is targeting currencies in its approach to trade deals, Peter Navarro, the head of the US president’s new National Trade Council, told the Financial Times (£) that the euro was like an “implicit Deutsche Mark”.Related: 'Brutal, amoral, ruthless, cheating': how Trump's new trade tsar sees China Continue reading...

All the day’s economic and financial news, including new growth and unemployment data from the eurozone

Europe will suffer if it punishes leavers and restricts free trade. It must transform itself so all states gain from membership

From advertising to workplaces, in 2017, let’s endeavour to recognise the enormous opportunity that diversity offers all of us

All the day’s economic and financial news, as president Trump’s ban on citizens from seven countries entering the US worries investors

Hostility in the UK and US to structures such as the EU, World Bank and IMF will lead to increasing instability for everyone

Leading MP launches suggested guidelines for article 50 talks designed to bridge divide between leave and remain votersBritain’s exit from the EU must make the country more prosperous and fair, maintain an open economy and increase people’s democratic rights, a group of academics has urged in a list of four tests for making a success of Brexit.

British cities would need to dramatically increase trade with other markets to compensate for hard Brexit, says Centre for Cities

Part-time jobs paying more than £40,000 a year have increased by more than 5% in the past year, with traditional nine-to-five structure being remodelledMore than 770,000 high earners now work part-time, according to a report that shows how employers are becoming more open to using job shares in senior roles.The number of part-time staff on salaries over £40,000 has increased by 5.7% in the past year, said flexible-working group Timewise. Continue reading...

Failure of Greece and the EU to reach compromise by 20 February ‘would bring back Grexit with a vengeance’Greece’s embattled government has three weeks to break the deadlock in increasingly difficult talks with creditors or risk the country’s debt crisis resurfacing with renewed vigour.

The City rigged markets, laundered money and mis-sold products, but has diverted attention by threatening to leave LondonIt is almost a decade since the financial crisis and barely a day has gone by without banks being in the headlines, invariably for the wrong reasons.Only last week, RBS – 73% owned by the state since its bail out in 2008 – announced it was taking a £3.1bn hit as a result of a case brought by the US Department of Justice over the way the bank packaged and sold mortgages during the great housing bubble that preceded the crash.Related: This belated Tory conversion to industrial strategy is tragic Continue reading...

President Trump wants Perdue to lead the agriculture department – but the head of a global agribusiness could favor big ag over many family farmersAfter keeping the rural voters who put him in office on edge until the last moment, President Trump nominated Sonny Perdue, a former Georgia governor now heading a global agribusiness trading company – Perdue Partners LLC – to be his agricultural secretary. The night following Trump’s announcement, Perdue took the stage at the Bipartisan Inaugural Gala Celebrating American Agriculture and promised to “make American agriculture great again”.The good news is that Perdue clears a bar far too few Trump cabinet nominees seem to meet – he has experience in government and management, as well as knowledge about the department he’s been selected to lead. This is a relief, given the breadth of authority of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), an agency of nearly 100,000 employees with an annual budget over $140m. The bad news is, Perdue also has a great deal in common with other cabinet nominees: a whole lot of money, close ties to big industry and a track record that bodes poorly for the interests of the broader constituency of the USDA: the American people.Related: Why oysters, mussels and clams could hold the key to more ethical fish farmingRelated: Will 2017 be the year we get serious about sustainable food? Continue reading...

Community groups join forces to protest over soaring level of rents fuelled by a big rise in visitor numbersBehind banners reading “Barcelona is not for sale” and “We will not be driven out”, some 2,000 people staged an “occupation” of the Rambla, the city’s famed boulevard, on Saturday.The protest was organised by a coalition of more than 40 resident and community groups from all over the city, not just the neighbourhoods most directly affected by mass tourism. Continue reading...

Higher consumer spending and rising business investment fails to offset fall in exports and rise in importsThe US economy slowed last year to register its worst performance since 2011 after the strong dollar sent exports tumbling and encouraged American businesses to import cheaper components from abroad.But the worsening trade position was offset by increases in consumer spending and business investment that analysts said would hand President Donald Trump a strong and growing economy.Related: Final US growth figures under Obama are a triumph – for Trump | Larry Elliott Continue reading...

With 57% of maintained nursery schools rated ‘outstanding’, it seems madness for them to face cuts. If anything, their remit ought to be extendedThe prospect of state-maintained nurseries closing en masse sounds the lowest note of the austerity politics. Maintained nurseries have enjoyed a level of Ofsted success that the rest of the education sector might look upon with envy. In 2015, 57% of those nurseries achieved an outstanding rating, compared with just 12% of the sector as a whole. So my wife and I were more than happy to move our youngest adopted child from his private nursery when he became eligible to attend. Six months later, I would say that that our experience of his new nursery has been similarly outstanding.

News that pace of growth slowed in last three months of 2016 by more than Wall Street expected is a boon for new presidentThe last set of growth figures for Barack Obama’s eight years in the White House could hardly have been better. For the new president, that is.Judging by the preliminary estimates, the pace of US growth slowed in the final three months of 2016 – and by more than Wall Street had been anticipating. Activity expanded at an annualised rate of 1.9% in the fourth quarter, down from 3.5% in the previous three months.Related: US economic growth slows to lowest rate since 2011 Continue reading...

Growth slowed to 1.9% in the fourth quarter of 2016 from 3.5% in the third, as weak exports weighed on the world’s largest economy

Crude financial instruments dominate the headlines, but it’s metrics like grain price and inequality ratio that really reflect the world we live in

Donald Trump says he’ll bring back full employment. But maybe no politician has the power to deliver thisThe story has rather got lost in the midst of Donald Trump’s statements this week about his fabled wall, the merits of torture, and all the other stuff that has underlined the frightening nature of his arrival in power – but on Monday, the new president hosted a remarkable meeting.In the Roosevelt Room of the White House, Trump held talks with the leaders of US trade unions: among them, the presidents of the Laborers’ International Union of North America, the Smart (it stands for sheet metal, air, rail and transportation) Union, and the United Brotherhood of Carpenters. Despite US unions overwhelmingly backing Hillary Clinton – the carpenters, for example, recently warned that “Trump’s legacy will ruin America” – all was apparently warmth and cordiality.Related: On her flight May should read Trump’s book: the other guy is always shafted | Polly ToynbeeRelated: The Trump effect has rallied US markets – but it's based on illusion | Robert Shiller Continue reading...

Polly Toynbee’s article in praise of the leader of Surrey county council misses some fundamental points (It’s a crisis indeed when the social care rebels are Tories, 24 January). While David Hodge’s stance may be well-intentioned, it makes him an accessory to his party’s cuts, rather than a rebel against them. Transferring responsibility to local level is a key part of the government’s strategy, so that the blame for its austerity policies can be shifted to others. This is true across the spectrum of local authority and health services.The notion that it is appropriate to transfer the burden of cuts to local council tax-payers should be challenged. Local Government Association and Cipfa leadership might be more usefully directed to this as a campaign focus of national interest. Continue reading...

UK defies downturn fears thanks to another strong performance by service sector firms, but economists fear a slowdown in 2017

Justice department charge for mis-selling scandal in US puts bailed-out bank on course for ninth consecutive annual lossThe chancellor has ruled out reducing the government’s stake in Royal Bank of Scotland after it took a £3.1bn hit towards the cost of a bond mis-selling scandal in the US.The charge for the latest regulatory failure will push RBS to its ninth consecutive annual loss and was blamed by Ross McEwan, the bank’s chief executive, on the bank having “lost its way” into the run-up to the 2008 crisis. RBS has already incurred £50bn of cumulative annual losses since taxpayers pumped in £45bn to keep it afloat.Related: RBS investors call for governance changes to improve transparency Continue reading...

TUC chief warns against government complacency as economy expands by 0.6% in the final three months of yearBuoyant consumer spending kept the UK economy growing at the brisk pace of 0.6% in the final quarter of 2016, marking a strong finish to the year despite the Brexit vote.The initial estimate for fourth-quarter GDP from the Office for National Statistics matched the 0.6% growth recorded in the third and second quarters. It was a touch better than the 0.5% rise expected by City economists. The pound hit a fresh six-week high of $1.2673 just before the data was released.Related: UK GDP growth shows consumers spending despite Brexit worriesRelated: Britain's economy beats forecasts with 0.6% growth in the last quarter - live updates Continue reading...

George Osborne has been proved wrong in his forecasts of doom – the economy has stayed afloat thanks to the service sectorIt was supposed to be the moment of truth. Had the economy performed as George Osborne predicted it would in the fevered days before the referendum, late January 2017 would have been the moment when official data showed that output in the UK had contracted in both the third and fourth quarters of 2016 – the technical definition of a recession.Instead, Philip Hammond was in the happy position of being able to use a visit to Microsoft’s UK headquarters in Reading to announce that growth in the final three months of 2016 had been 0.6% – exactly the same as in the previous two quarters.Related: UK GDP figures show solid end to 2016 despite Brexit voteRelated: Britain's economy beats forecasts with 0.6% growth in the last quarter - live updates Continue reading...

British PM could struggle to negotiate good trade deal with president who has pledged to put America firstAppetite for a US trade deal with Britain appears as high in Washington as it is in London, according to interviews with politicians, with both governments anxious to demonstrate there is more to economic populism than simply a desire for protectionism.But despite the political convergence indicated by Donald Trump’s election and the Brexit vote, Theresa May will discover the special relationship still has plenty of cracks and contradictions when she visits the White House on Friday.Related: Theresa May to seek special deal with Trump in White House visit Continue reading...

The cost of government cuts isn’t always visible. But there is no escaping it in Sunderland, where services to vulnerable women are under threatYou’ve read the headlines about the council services facing death by a thousand cuts, from nursery schools to libraries and community transport for disabled school pupils. After a real-terms cut of 40% in core government grants since 2010, the Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy (Cipfa) says we are now at the point where councils are “close to the brink” of insolvency. If further proof were needed, look over to Surrey and its council tax referendum, where a council is effectively admitting to voters it can no longer afford to help elderly residents get dressed, or to keep learning disabled adults safe. This is only the beginning. Local government is estimated to be facing a funding black hole of £5.8bn by 2020. If there is any doubt about the brutal impact of these cuts on the ground, just take a look at Sunderland, which is likely to become the only major city in the UK with no refuges for domestic violence victims.Related: Northumbria police chief leads fight against cuts to women's refugesUnless Phillipson is told that the funding will be protected, it will mean closed signs on Sunderland’s refuge doors Continue reading...