Assets under management fall 12.5% to £283.7bn as investors grow nervous about China and other emerging marketsAberdeen Asset Management’s funds under management fell by more than £40bn last year as clients grew nervous about shares in China and other emerging markets that the fund manager had built its reputation on.At the end of September, Aberdeen’s assets under management were £283.7bn compared with £324.4bn a year earlier – a fall of 12.5%. Net outflows were £33.9bn and equivalent withdrawals from equity funds increased to £16.4bn from £13bn the year before.Related: Aberdeen Asset Management shares hit by emerging market fears Continue reading...

China hopes stamp of approval will improve yuan’s desirability among investors and undermine hegemony of US dollar as global reserve currencyChina’s efforts to make the yuan an international currency on a par with the US dollar are to receive a fillip with the International Monetary Fund widely expected to add it to a special basket of global currencies.

Black Friday was a nonevent, and even children are bored with Christmas tat. Consumerism has finally eaten itselfI’m worried that I’m the only one who watches enough telly to see what’s going on here: the toy industry – and if that sounds niche, remember that this close to Christmas it stands as a proxy for production as a whole – is having some kind of systems collapse. Games that should never have made it past the planning stage – a plastic dachshund that craps yellow pellets and forces you to scoop them up with a shovel – stagger into their fifth year. Over-engineered, nylon-furred tat, going by the name Furbies, take an antisocial glee in the vexation they provoke. The Clever Keet is a plastic bird that mimics the experience of having a live pet, except it doesn’t in any way: it was designed with the unimaginable customer in mind who prefers it when the air is filled with banality.Related: Black Friday sales fall 10% from last yearRelated: Meet Spot the dog, Boston Dynamics' cutest robot yet Continue reading...

Climate has changed since WTO round began in 2001, with extreme nationalism rising again on back of economic hardship triggered by system failureIt’s November 2001. The terrorist attacks on the United States on 9/11 are still fresh and raw. While George Bush plots revenge, a meeting of trade ministers takes place in the Gulf state of Qatar.The gathering has two purposes. At one level, it is intended as a show of global solidarity with the US, a signal that the international community can unite in its opposition to fanaticism. But trade ministers also think the time is right to break down barriers to the free movement of goods and services around the world. After all, the last successful round of trade liberalisation negotiations was completed eight years earlier in 1993.Related: Borders are closing and banks are in retreat. Is globalisation dead? Continue reading...

Gertjan Vlieghe of Bank of England says he wants to see growth stabilise or pick up before considering increaseA Bank of England policymaker has said UK economic growth must stabilise or pick up before he will be persuaded of the need to raise interest rates.Gertjan Vlieghe said in a newspaper interview he was relaxed about waiting to raise them from record low levels.Related: The UK economy may be growing, but in a highly unbalanced way Continue reading...

Economic pundits may be a clever bunch, but the chancellor has fooled them all over the past few weeksRobert Chote, chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility, used to be director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies. Paul Johnson, who used to look after public services at the Treasury (among many other things) was a colleague of Sharon White, who is married to Robert Chote. Five years hence, for all I know, White may be director of the IFS, Johnson could be chairing the OBR, and Chote could be boss of Ofcom (White’s current berth). Or any of them could be economics editor of the FT, where Chote made his name.This, in short, is a close-knit world of similar and similarly able economists, not some canyon of conflict between OBR and IFS. Doors revolve constantly. Forecasts are continually refined (or changed) by the same sort of independent analysts. Which leads to one observation that, gently, the assembled commentocracy of press and broadcasting failed to make last week amid the pother about U-turns, discontinued austerity and abracadabra. Continue reading...

This Thatcherite chancellor’s dependence on communist China for energy is just one of many symptoms of his erratic approach to capital expenditureOur chancellor could not resist it. Once again, while presenting the latest revisions to his “long-term plan”, he dragged up the Labour chief secretary Liam Byrne’s line in 2010 that “there’s no money left”. I say line, because it was not a spoken remark but a phrase contained in the customary written note from the outgoing chief secretary to the incoming one, who happened – for what turned out to be a very short time – to be the Liberal Democrat David Laws.This was meant to be a joke, and Treasury officials thought it was bad form for Laws to publicise a private letter. But the joke rebounded on Byrne and Labour, and the Conservatives are still milking it all these years later. And last week shadow chancellor John McDonnell tried a deliberately more public joke with his production of Chairman Mao’s little red book. This backfired too, and the Tories will milk it mercilessly as well. Continue reading...

Brian Eno, producer, composer and former Roxy Music keyboard playerYanis Varoufakis, former finance minister for Greece’s Syriza governmentThe British musician and producer Brian Eno meets Yanis Varoufakis, former finance minister for Greece’s Syriza government, at Eno’s recording studio in west London. Both are stylish, shaven-headed men famous for their radical ideas. Eno, 67, started out playing synth and wearing leopardskin shirts in the 1970s with Roxy Music and went on to produce, among others, David Bowie and Talking Heads. Varoufakis, 54, who turns up in his trademark leather jacket, describes himself as a libertarian Marxist and has taught economics in the UK, Australia, the US and his native Greece. He and Eno are friends, and recently attended a U2 concert together. Both are phenomenally well-read men, keen theorists who regard themselves primarily as activists.Brian Eno How did you get here?When the going is really tough, art is stifledThe future is a choice between Star Trek and The MatrixI don’t remember a single political conversation with Bryan Ferry – maybe because we knew it would be catastrophicI am an optimist. I think that what you believe is what you make happen Continue reading...

Consumers continue to fuel economic recovery as widening import-export gap proves record drag on growthThe UK economy has slowed after poor overseas trade figures put a record drag on growth, leaving household spending to drive the recovery and casting further doubt on George Osborne’s hopes that strong tax receipts will help him hit ambitious budget targets.Official figures confirming that GDP growth slipped in the third quarter came alongside a warning from a leading credit rating agency that the chancellor’s latest package of tax and spending measures left him at risk of missing his goal to run a surplus on the public finances by the end of the decade. Fitch Ratings said the chancellor was heavily reliant on economic growth holding up to balance the books. Continue reading...

The services sector continues to outpace manufacturing, still suffering from export volatility, as people rush to borrow moreEvery time the latest GDP figures appear, the Treasury would have us use the occasion to look at the sunny image of the economy in the round.The third quarter data indeed confirms that the economy is on track to grow by 2.4% this year and many City economists have pencilled in 2.5% next year. Even the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), reckoned a cautious forecaster, has picked 2.4% as the most-likely growth rate.Related: Weakening UK trade puts the brakes on GDP growthRelated: UK manufacturers fear bleak outlook as export orders tumble Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the day’s economic and financial events, including a new health check on the UK economy

Reverend Billy Talen and his group are returning to New York City this Black Friday to deliver a simple message to Americans: resist consumerismJustin Bieber has pulled out of the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day parade. But don’t worry: the Reverend Billy is still planning to entertain the holiday crowd on Black Friday and maybe, just maybe, add a few Beliebers to his Church of Non-Shopping.The holiday season is a busy time for Bill Talen – the performance artist, actor and activist who styles himself as Reverend Billy. Last week at Joe’s Pub, the downtown music venue where Adele recently performed three of her songs to an intimate crowd of 184 people, Talen was warming up for the big day.Related: Number of people killed by US police in 2015 at 1,000 after Oakland shooting Continue reading...

Market researcher Gfk says its November survey reflects concerns over economy despite boost to disposable incomesConsumers confidence slumped last month to its lowest level since the summer as British households expressed concerns about the prospects for the economy next year.The GfK consumer confidence index dropped one point to +1 from the previous month and a high of +7 in July, after respondents said the prospects for the global economy had weakened. Continue reading...

There are three things to say about the UK’s spending review. First of all it shows that this government is susceptible to pressure in reversing the tax credit and police cuts, and secondly, despite the inadequate BBC scrutiny and analysis, this was about consolidating austerity. Tax credit and police cut reversal was not new money. It was just not a cut. Meanwhile we are on course for public spending to be 36% of GDP, which means that public funding will kept at the cut level it is now. This is not enough for social care, libraries, children’s centres, housing benefit, youth clubs, fire services, policing, employment support allowance and social housing. Finally the OBR is forecasting five years of continuous growth, which means at the very least that the economy is stabilising. So we have a choice to fund the public services we need, and that is the alternative.

John McDonnell makes a very important point by brandishing Chairman Mao’s Little Red Book in parliament (McDonnell throws the (Mao) book, 26 November). George Osborne is not just enabling the Chinese state to own British state assets. He is actually subsidising Chinese state enterprises to do so, as well as structuring UK public sector contracts in such a way as to favour the Chinese. What’s more, with recent Chinese engagement in energy, he is effectively selling to China future UK tax revenues.

IFS says there is 50-50 chance Osborne will have to revisit spending plans, while Resolution Foundation says some families could lose £3,000 a year by 2020The government has been forced to deny claims that George Osborne’s spending review is a continued assault on Britain’s poorest families, after two respected thinktanks warned future benefit cuts would leave some families more than a thousand pounds worse off.Both the Institute for Fiscal Studies and the Resolution Foundation said they believe millions of working families would be worse off by 2020 because of welfare changes than they would have been under the current system, despite Osborne having reversed his planned cuts to tax credits.Related: Spending Review leaves 2.6m working families worse off, says IFS - live updatesRelated: George Osborne in conflict with Iain Duncan Smith over universal credit Continue reading...

The chancellor’s plan to run a surplus by 2020 is a cast-iron promise. If it goes off track, raising taxes or losing face are his only optionsNapoleon would have approved of George Osborne. “I know he’s a good general,” the French emperor once said. “But is he lucky?”The answer to that question, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, is yes. The chancellor got lucky when the Office for Budget Responsibility raised its forecasts for tax revenue and cut its predictions for interest payments on the national debt. That gave Osborne some much-needed wiggle room to delay welfare cuts, choke back on austerity and spend a bit more on infrastructure.Related: Autumn statement: IFS warns on tax rises and spending cuts Continue reading...

All the day’s economic and financial news, as the Institute for Fiscal Studies gives its verdict to George Osborne’s spending review.

Chancellor makes clear he is not abandoning his overall approach to eliminate structural budget deficit two years before 2020 election

The tax credit cuts that will still go ahead, the bad news for students, and other devils in George Osborne’s detailRelated: Tory MPs cheer George Osborne's climbdown on tax credit cutsWe have added our own forecast judgment of a further six-month delay to the managed migration phase of the [universal credit, or UC] rollout. As usual, we have considered evidence from DWP and the latest assessment of UC rollout by the Major Projects Authority. While this indicates greater confidence in the ‘transition phase’ rollout plan, considerable uncertainty remains over the ‘managed migration’ phase. And of course the transition phase rollout schedule has just been pushed back six months, just a year after the previous delay.Related: Student loans: Osborne criticised for freezing repayment thresholdTo reduce government debt, the student loan repayment threshold for plan two borrowers will be frozen until April 2021.Related: Osborne accused of ‘despicable’ attempt to cut opposition party fundingTherefore, subject to confirmation by parliament, the government proposes to reduce Short money allocations by 19%, in line with the average savings made from unprotected Whitehall departments over this spending review. Allocations will then be frozen in cash terms for the rest of the parliament, removing the automatic RPI indexation. Policy development grant allocations will also be reduced by a similar proportion, ensuring that political parties in receipt of taxpayer funding contribute to the savings being asked of local and central government. Continue reading...

Cuts to departmental spending will be 1.1% a year rather than the previously planned 1.6%George Osborne will press ahead with his attack on Whitehall spending over the next five years but at a slower pace than he signalled in the summer, following better than expected forecasts of tax receipts, lower debt payments and a sale of assets.Cuts to departmental spending will be 1.1% a year rather than the annual reduction of 1.6% planned in the July budget, saving thousands of public sector jobs that were previously earmarked for the chop.Related: George Osborne taps £27bn windfall for tax credits U-turn Continue reading...

Office for Budget Responsibility threw aside previous caution giving Osborne decent hand to play in autumn statementMany politicians know luck and chance can be the covert kingmaker in their trade, and as pure a political figure as the chancellor, George Osborne, will know quite how fortunate he has been today with his four-year spending review.The review, setting the frame for the whole of the second-term government, still contains the predicted pain, massive cuts in local government and job losses, but nothing on the scale Whitehall feared.Related: George Osborne scraps tax credit cuts in welfare U-turn Continue reading...

Independent forecaster concedes positive predictions could change as experts are sceptical that tax receipts will pick up as quickly as expectedThe Treasury’s independent forecaster has conceded there are big uncertainties in its predictions for higher tax revenues after the chancellor used the prospective windfall to justify a softer pace of cuts in his autumn statement.

The chancellor flashed the hypothetical cash, with a shower of stocking-fillers he calculates he’ll never have to pay forIn July, George Osborne came to the House of Commons to play Scrooge. On Wednesday, in chilly November, the chancellor used his return appearance to play Santa.The pre-show buildup had suggested the opposite. Austerity Osborne would unveil a spending review to make the eyes water, cutting and slashing at the state until it was left in bloody ribbons. In the event, he came bearing gifts, all but ho-ho-hoing as he told recipients of tax credits their payments would be safe (for now) or delivered similarly glad tidings to the nation’s police forces, assuring them their jobs would be safe after all.

Office for Budget Responsibility now expects higher tax revenues and lower debt interest repayments, but new figures could be inaccurate tooGeorge Osborne has pulled off what should have been impossible: he cancelled his tax credit changes in full, softened the sharpest edges of Whitehall budget cuts and still left himself a £10bn pre-election warchest by 2020.Speculation had been rife about whose pockets the chancellor would pick in order to pay for the well-signalled U-turn on tax credits. But in the event, Osborne was handed an extraordinary £27bn get-out-of-jail-free card by Robert Chote, the director of the Office for Budget Responsibility. Continue reading...

Ignore the chancellor’s escapology: George Osborne’s short-term deficit fixes are undermining our long-term economic stability and potential for growthLet’s start with the good news. In today’s spending review, George Osborne was forced to backtrack on his grossly unfair plans to cut working tax credits, a plan that would have left many worse off. This is a victory for anyone who believes that it is wrong to make the poor pay for the faults of the private banking system – a system that caused the public budget to rise following the crisis.But as Labour supporters congratulate themselves on the chancellor’s U-turn, and Conservatives cheer on the chancellor’s latest bit of political escapology, we shouldn’t lose sight of the bad news. Let’s face it, there are still £12bn in cuts to welfare spending to come in this parliament. This remains not only unfair, but unnecessary.Related: George Osborne scraps tax credit cuts in welfare U-turnRelated: Osborne plan has no basis in economics | Letter from Ha-Joon Chang, Thomas Piketty, David Blanchflower and others Continue reading...

Chancellor says in autumn statement that improvement in public finances means he is able to ditch controversial cut

Official forecasts envisage more tax revenue, allowing chancellor a big U-turn in his autumn statement. The problem is OBR estimates are often proved wrongGeorge Osborne was able to pull not one but three rabbits out the hat when he delivered his 2015 spending review and autumn statement.Rabbit No 1 was the decision to scrap the planned cuts to tax credits, which the chancellor announced in the summer but were strongly opposed by many of his own Conservative backbenchers, by free market thinktanks and Tory supporting newspapers.Related: George Osborne scraps tax credit cuts in welfare U-turnRelated: Spending review 2015: George Osborne scraps tax credit cuts and abandons plans to slash police budget - live Continue reading...

The chancellor is revealing the economic forecasts for the year ahead and setting out public spending cuts for the rest of this parliament2.41pm GMTPaul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, has just been on the BBC explaining how George Osborne has been able to fund his surprise “good news” announcements. Asked if the sums were credible, Johnson said:[Osborne] has got a bit lucky, in that there are some more tax revenues expected to come in by the OBR. And he’s got a bit lucky because he’s going to be a spending a bit less on debt interest. He has also increased taxes reasonably significantly. There’s a £3bn impost on business to pay for the new apprenticeships. And there are some increases in council tax, probably. And there are some other tax increases there.So he’s done two things. He has taken advantage of increased revenues and reduced spending on debt interest. He’s increased taxes a bit. And he’s essentially used most of that money to damp down the cuts in spending. And because those cuts in spending were on a relatively limited part of government, the effect of that bit of extra money is to significantly reduce the overall level of cuts.2.31pm GMTThe OBR has revised up its forecast for income tax and national insurance contributions this parliament by almost £15bn.That has helped to chancellor to stick to his deficit reduction targets despite raising spending - so there could be problems if they’re wrong...increase in income tax projections, which OBR has overestimated before (but Osborne has spent £££ in the mean time) pic.twitter.com/nNAGXGl5GM2.27pm GMTIt’s official, the cap doesn’t fit.The Office for Budget Responsibility has predicted that the government will fall into its welfare cap trap several times.Our central forecast shows that the terms of the welfare cap are set to be breached in three successive years from 2016-17 to 2018-19, with the net effect of policy measures raising welfare cap spending in each of those years, and to well above the 2 per cent forecast margin in 2016-17 and 2017-18.The terms of the cap are set to be observed by very small margins in 2019-20 and 2020-21, with spending above the cap but within the forecast margin and with the net effect of measures in those years reducing spending.2.21pm GMTThe OBR has calculated that today’s measures will raise gross tax take by £28.5bn by 2020.It says:These include the new apprenticeship levy (£11.6 billion), higher council tax (£6.2 billion), and the introduction of higher rates of stamp duty land tax for second homes and buy-to-let purchases (£3.8 billion).Apprenticeships Levy raises £3 billion a year - epic tax rise on business2.20pm GMTToday’s detailed forecasting by the OBR has some grim news for John Swinney, the Scottish finance secretary, by warning that income from taxes controlled by the Holyrood parliament in Edinburgh are likely to be lower than it thought.Raising fresh questions about the Scottish government’s future finances, the OBR forecasts that tax income from Swinney’s flagship replacement for stamp duty, introduced on new house sales earlier this year, will be 20% lower over the next six years than it predicted in July.2.12pm GMTHere is a quick round-up of what political journalists and writers are saying about John McDonnell on Twitter. Mostly they are not complimentary.(The consolation for McDonnell is that it does not really matter. Almost all the media focus today will be on Osborne.)"Bring back Ed Balls" shouts a Tory but McDonnell making a decent fist of it given he is speaking on something he hadn't previously seenMcDonnell a bag of nerves responding to spending review. Stumbling over words + gulping for air. Good hit on welfare cap, but struggling nowChris Leslie, Yvette Cooper scouring CSR small print on backbenches. Reminder that McDonnell never done rapid budget reaction. Others have.McDonnell overachieving against expectations here - on his debut in a tough situationI don't think it would matter whether McDonnell gave a spectacular response to this. Most Labour MPs are horrified he's even doing it.McDonnell is waving around Mao's little red book - apparently oblivious to the signal this sends out.I would say this McDonnell speech is worst response from the dispatch box I have ever seen. Dire.Labour response now from @johnmcdonnellMP shows why CX felt he cd get away with double U turn. Couldn't make capital out of tax credit win2.11pm GMTThe Office for Budget Responsibility confirms that it has raised its forecast for tax receipts, allowing George Osborne to ease back on austerity.In the first combined Spending Review and Autumn Statement since 2007, the Government has taken advantage of an improvement in the outlook for tax receipts – concentrated in the middle years of this Parliament – to further loosen the impending squeeze on public services spending, to increase capital spending and to reverse the main tax credit cuts it announced in July, while still delivering a modestly stronger budget balance in most years on a like-for- like basis. As the boost to receipts begins to ebb, the Government increases departmental spending by less and relies more on tax increases to maintain the bottom line improvement.Taken together with the other measures in the Autumn Statement, the Government has announced a net fiscal giveaway of £6.2 billion next year, more than half of which is the cost of reversing the tax credit cut. This outweighs a £2.9 billion improvement in the underlying forecast in that year and thereby pushes up the deficit.In his 1st term, OBR lifted its borrowing forecasts, forcing GO into more austerity. Now, in his 2nd term, opposite seems to be happening2.01pm GMTMcDonnell is still speaking. He says this statement was part of Osborne’s leadership bid.The statement will be seen as the apex of Osborne’s career, he says.1.58pm GMTJohn McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, is responding to George Osborne now. Having to respond to statements of this kind is the hardest task any parliamentarian ever has to undertake (because the opposition gets no advance warning of what is in these statements) and no one ever really triumphs in this role.McDonnell started by taunting Osborne for the fact that he failed completely to cut the deficit in one parliament as he promised in 2010. McDonnell’s argument was sound, although his attempt to lecture the Tories on deficit reduction and economic credibility prompted laughing from the government benches.1.57pm GMTThe Office for Budget Responsibility’s new Economic and fiscal outlook is online too. Now we can see the details of today’s figures....1.49pm GMTThe Spending Review and Autumn Statement are online here.1.49pm GMTJohn McDonnell has just stood up to respond to George Osborne. He has got quite a task, because there were some genuine political surprises there, as well as at least two leaps into Labourish territory. Quite how Osborne will fund his “good news announcements” is a total mystery, on the basis of what Osborne said, but after a few hours with the red book we should find out. But Osborne does probably deserve some credit for abandoning his tax credits completely, instead for opting for a fudge. If you are going to do a U-turn, you may well do one properly, and Osborne pulled this off with some aplomb. His announcement on police funding was a real surprise too (although we need to see the small print). More interesting were the apprenticeship levy - a £3bn tax on big business, not unlike Gordon Brown’s 1997 windfall tax, and more ambitious than anything Labour proposed at the election - and the punitive 3% stamp duty for buy to let landlords, another move that sounds Jeremy Corbyn than Ed Balls.1.48pm GMT1.43pm GMTHere’s Heather Stewart on today’s Autumn Statement:George Osborne has executed a complete U-turn on his controversial cuts to tax credits, as he delivered what he called, “a big spending review from a government that does big things”.Osborne had promised to modify the plans, which would have seen 3m low-income families lose an average of £1,000 a year, after they were rejected by the House of Lords, and criticised by Conservative backbenchers.Related: George Osborne scraps tax credit cuts in welfare U-turn1.40pm GMTYou always expect a few white rabbits from George Osborne.But this time, the Office for Budget Responsibility handed the chancellor a plump bunny, with better growth forecasts despite recent signs of weakness in the global economy.

Chancellor has concluded the department cannot find enough savings to compensate for decision to slow pace of cuts to tax creditsGeorge Osborne has set in train plans to breach the Treasury’s welfare cap after deciding he cannot find enough savings to compensate for the decision to slow the pace of cuts to tax credits.The chancellor has held discussions with the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) to arrange a Commons vote that would give the government permission to breach the cap.

Chancellor to spell out how axe will fall on Whitehall budgets that were not protected in election manifesto pledgeGeorge Osborne will announce big cuts in spending for the police, social care, local government, further education, renewable energy and welfare as he is forced to finally spell out how he plans to have reduced spending in key government departments cumulatively by nearly 50% since the Conservatives came to power in 2010.After weeks of media focus on protected Whitehall departments, the chancellor will detail how the cuts will fall across the rest of government departments.Related: Autumn statement: As reality bites, revulsion could yet sink Osborne and Cameron | Polly ToynbeeRelated: How Tory cuts have sliced through David Cameron's backyardRelated: Deficit-reduction plan risks UK health and security, says John McDonnell Continue reading...

Deficit is a word that has haunted western economies since the financial crisis of 2008, but what is it? Why does it get so often confused with debt? And how important is it to the running of an economy? Economists still argue over how best to eliminate it - either by stimulus or by austerity, but one thing is certain: the deficit is set to dominate economic and political discussion for years to come Continue reading...

Tory attempts to steal from the fallen Labour leader have yet to create a party of responsible capitalismEveryone’s favourite opponent is the one most recently defeated, which explains why many Tories now speak warmly of Ed Miliband. Their gratitude to him for losing the election has even unlocked an indulgent view of the case the former Labour leader tried to make: that insecurity, low wages and lack of opportunity are systemic flaws in Britain’s economy.Related: 'Shocking' inequality levels in Britain must be addressed, says John MajorSome Conservative thinkers privately bemoan the limitations imposed by a kind of stubborn libertarianism in the ranks Continue reading...

The chancellor is to set out his four year spending plans and he needs a £20bn surplus by 2020 - this is what he has to doThe comprehensive spending review that George Osborne will announce on Wednesday will set out how the government intends to spend taxpayers’ money for the next four years, covering the period up until the next election. It is one of the key moments of the 2015-20 parliament.He will also set out the autumn statement, which is the government’s update on its plans for the economy and includes new forecasts for growth and public finances from the Office for Budget Responsibility.Related: Autumn statement 2015: five key chartsRelated: Autumn statement: As reality bites, revulsion could yet sink Osborne and Cameron | Polly Toynbee Continue reading...

Chancellor sets out his spending review and autumn statement on Wednesday. Here’s what he is likely to say on the subjects such as the economy, tax credits and housingThe independent Office for Budget Responsibility will announce its latest forecasts for economic growth and a range of other indicators, including inflation and unemployment. In July, it was expecting GDP growth of 2.4% this year and 2.3% in 2016.Related: Autumn statement: As reality bites, revulsion could yet sink Osborne and Cameron | Polly Toynbee Continue reading...

Growth, borrowing, spending cuts, deficits and surpluses - what you need to look out for in George Osborne’s statement on the economyRelated: Spending review 2015: George Osborne delivers his autumn statement - live updatesThere is very little need for the Office for Budget Responsibility to modify its economic forecasts. The projection for 2.4% year-on-year growth this year and a slight moderation next year to 2.3% both look reasonable.”Borrowing will total £80.3bn this year if the current trend continues, nearly £11bn more than the OBR’s £69.5bn prediction...“In Wednesday’s autumn statement, the chancellor can accommodate a small rise in the borrowing forecast and still adhere to his Charter for Budget Responsibility, which requires him to achieve a surplus by the end of the parliament. But his margin for error virtually will disappear, with the surplus in 2019/20 probably being revised down to about £5bn from £10bn.”This year’s autumn statement and spending review marks the halfway point in a ten year campaign to eliminate Britain’s budget deficit. Just under half of the cuts in public spending needed to balance the books have taken place, leaving much of the hard grind of deficit reduction ahead.”“In identifying where the axe will fall in this parliament, the chancellor’s room for manoeuvre is severely limited by existing commitments. The government has ring-fenced around 60% of day-to-day spending... These commitments leave a handful of areas of spending most exposed to further cuts, with local government, the Home Office, Justice and Business in the firing line.”The reductions will take government spending relative to the size of the economy to levels that, in recent times, are below average but not unprecedented. However, the sustained period of cuts – a decade – will be unprecedented.”handy chart from a series of handy charts: @instituteforgov on spending review wiggle room https://t.co/R6NTgLuxF4 pic.twitter.com/ykCUK6QFvW Continue reading...

Analysis of 105 banks by European Banking Authority raises concerns over ‘drag on profitability’ from non-performing loansEuropean banks are sitting on bad debts of €1tn – the equivalent to the GDP of Spain – which is holding back their profitability and ability to lend to high street customers and businesses.According to a detailed analysis of 105 banks across 21 countries in the European Union conducted by the European Banking Authority (EBA), the experience of Europe’s banks to troubled customers is worse than that of their counterparts in the US. Continue reading...

The Bank of England governor didn’t have a care in the world as he purred his way through a meeting with the Treasury select committeeIt is a trademark Canadian drawl that elides not just words and sentences, but decades too.“Thepressureonindependencegloballyhasincreasedpleasedtosaynationalauditofficeoversightpolicyoperationalletmegotodifficultyfirstentranceriskoftaileventsheadwindsdissipateinterestratesmorestimulative,” purred Mogadon “Mañana” Mark Carney.Related: Mark Carney testifies to parliament; US growth revised up - as it happened Continue reading...

GDP grew at reported annual rate of 2.1% between July and September – higher than previously claimed but still down from second quarterThe key measure of the US economy was revised from bleh to meh on Tuesday as businesses restocked goods at a stronger pace than first thought, adding to the likelihood of an historic US rate rise next month.The overall economy, as measured by the gross domestic product (GDP), grew at an annual rate of 2.1% in the July-September period, the Commerce Department reported, up from a previously estimated growth of 1.5%.Related: US jobs data smash forecasts and send dollar soaring – as it happened Continue reading...

Luxury jeweler lowers full-year earnings guidance as uncertain economic and market conditions in the US and other regions impact consumer spendingA strong dollar and economic uncertainty tarnished Tiffany’s third-quarter results. The luxury jeweler also lowered its full-year earnings guidance.Frederic Cumenal, chief executive officer, said in a statement that the strong dollar pressured its results when having to translate foreign sales into US dollars and on foreign tourist spending in the US.