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by Press Association on (#ZX68)
Dealers to announce record sales of 2.6m cars in 2015 with commercial vehicles set for 15% annual rise fuelled by surge in online shopping deliveries
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Link | http://feeds.theguardian.com/ |
Feed | http://feeds.theguardian.com/theguardian/business/economics/rss |
Updated | 2025-04-02 11:46 |
by Phillip Inman economics correspondent on (#ZW6Z)
British Chambers of Commerce says sector ‘close to stagnation’ after domestic and export sales fall to below pre-recession levelsManufacturing exports slumped at the end of last year, and will continue to suffer in 2016, leaving Britain with a two tier economy that relies on consumer spending to drive growth, a leading business group has warned.The British Chambers of Commerce said a survey of 7,500 firms found that manufacturing fared worse than the services sector and was “close to stagnation†after domestic and export sales fell to below their pre-recession levels in 2007. Continue reading...
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by Rupert Neate in New York and agencies on (#ZVPT)
Minutes reveal some policymakers remained concerned about stubbornly low inflation but economists believe rate hike will be first of several to come in 2016The Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates in December – the first rate rise in almost a decade – was a “close call†for some policymakers, according to minutes of the Fed’s meeting released on Wednesday.
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by Jill Treanor on (#ZW0Z)
Reports say investigation into gilts trading is not industry-wide despite recent criticism of regulator for dropping review into culture at major banksThe City regulator is investigating whether traders at Lloyds Banking Group manipulated the price of government bonds, in a sign that the authorities are continuing to seek out rigging of key markets.Following a series of fines across the industry for rigging interest rates and foreign exchange markets, the Financial Conduct Authority has been asking Lloyds for information about trading in gilts. Continue reading...
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by Larry Elliott on (#ZVGW)
Simultaneous slowdown in Brics economies would jeopardise chances of pick-up in global growth this year, report saysThe risk of the global economy being battered by a “perfect storm†in 2016 has been highlighted by the World Bank in a flagship report that warns that a synchronised slowdown in the biggest emerging markets could be intensified by a fresh bout of financial turmoil.The Bank said the possibility that Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – the so-called Brics economies – could all face problems simultaneously would put in jeopardy the chances of a pick-up in growth in the coming year. Continue reading...
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by Jill Treanor on (#ZV89)
Thousands of customers could be affected by move eight years after B&B was rescued by taxpayers during 2008 banking crisisThousands of customers of Bradford & Bingley face the prospect of having their mortgages sold off to another lender as the government prepares £17bn of home loans for sale.The vast package of mortgages is in government hands because B&B had to be rescued by taxpayers during the 2008 banking crisis. The mortgages could be sold off in parcels or as one giant bundle of loans.Related: MPs to look into £13bn sale of Northern Rock mortgages to Cerberus Capital Continue reading...
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by Phillip Inman Economics correspondent on (#ZTK8)
Weaker yuan revives fears of a currency war, a global conflict by other means that directly affects millions of workersThe phrase “currency war†speaks to a seemingly phoney battle between the world’s major trading powers over the price of exports. It has all the attributes of an illusory conflict because no one ever agrees that a genuine dispute has taken place. And as long as everyone denies they have drawn swords to slash their currency to compete with rival powers, talk of a war fizzles and dies.There is a fringe constituency of analysts who have long argued that, much like the hundred years’ war of intermittent battles between England and France, currency wars make headlines only when there is a lurch in policy, which is the equivalent of deploying archers and unleashing the cavalry.Related: Oil hits 11-year low as weak Chinese data spooks markets - business live Continue reading...
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by Phillip Inman Economics correspondent on (#ZSP8)
Expectations for business activity over next 12 months slumps to near three-year low in the face of growing uncertaintiesThe impact of government spending cuts, jittery world markets and the prospect of an EU referendum vote have dragged down expectations of UK services growth this year.The sector, which accounts for more than three-quarters of economic activity and ranges from shops and hotels to banking, maintained its solid growth in the run-up to Christmas, but a survey found that expectations for business activity over the next 12 months was the weakest for almost three years. Continue reading...
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by Tess Riley on (#ZRW6)
From 1970s sci-fi to modern-day India via postcapitalism and work slaves, check out our recommended reading for the coming yearCapitalism took a bashing in 2015: Corbynomics, the rise of anti-austerity parties Podemos and Syriza, Hillary Clinton slamming our culture of short-termism, COP21 protests and more. Capitalism – and more specifically its failings – is likely to be as brashly and uncompromisingly in the headlines this year as it has been over the past 12 months.To prepare you, we’ve put together a reading list of books we’ve loved and learned from. It’s not easy to narrow down a list of must-reads to just six, but we’ve done our best. Please add your own recommendations in the comments below.
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by Catherine Colebrook on (#ZPB9)
Indebted households without asset wealth are particularly vulnerable to deflationary dynamics - and the UK has a lot of themThis time last year the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) made a compelling case for keeping interest rates at their historic lows, arguing that although the recovery looked to be on an increasingly sure footing, we were some way off generating inflation through domestic wage pressure, and that if anything, the global growth slowdown meant inflation looked set to fall below 1% in the coming year.That view now looks prescient, to say the least. Consumer price inflation spent another month at near-zero levels in November, with prices by the CPI measure a mere 0.1% higher on average than a year ago. This makes it a virtual certainty that 2015 will be a year of zero or near-zero consumer price inflation: the first time this will have happened in the CPI’s 27-year history. Continue reading...
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by Martin Farrer and agencies on (#ZMPA)
Banks and energy companies take the hit as investors face global headwinds from slowing Chinese economy and depressed commodity pricesAustralian shares have closed down sharply as uncertainty about the direction of the Chinese economy and markets saw volatile trading across Asia Pacific.
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by Phillip Inman Economics correspondent on (#ZM8M)
Manufacturing output declines in China, India and US, leading investors to turn to gold investmentsFigures from China showing that factory output contracted for a 10th straight month in December pointed to a continuation of 2015’s global economic slowdown and the likelihood of worse to come.Related: Jitters over China manufacturing slowdown wipe £38bn off FTSE 100Related: Investors nervous as China looks set to repeat mistakes of last summer Continue reading...
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by Dominic Rushe on (#ZM3X)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average took a New Year’s dip as world stock markets fell on news China’s manufacturing sector continues to shrinkUS stock markets got the post-New Year’s blues on Monday, opening with their worst performance since 2008, driven down by a slowdown in China’s economy and more trouble in the Middle East.
by Dominic Rushe on (#ZM0Z)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average took a New Year’s dip unseen since 1922 after a survey of China’s manufacturing sector showed it continues to shrinkUS stock markets got the post-New Year’s blues on Monday, opening with their worst performance in decades, driven down by a slowdown in China’s economy and more trouble in the Middle East.
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by Phillip Inman Economics correspondent on (#ZKWM)
New orders also disappoint in December as firms blame continued slowdown on falling demand for consumer goods and machine toolsUK factories entered 2016 in a “state of near stagnation†following a decline in output growth and new orders during December.Firms blamed the weaker than expected growth on falling demand for consumer goods and machine tools, which have experienced a long slowdown in growth since a peak in 2014 apart from a recovery in the summer.Related: Recovery 'too reliant on consumer debt' as BCC downgrades forecastRelated: Factories forecast to shed tens of thousands of jobs in 2016 Continue reading...
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by Katie Allen on (#ZJAC)
UK stocks tumble as renewed concern over global economy spooks marketsThe FTSE 100 index had £38bn wiped off its value as global stock markets started the year with a rout sparked by fresh fears over the Chinese economy.Investors returning after the Christmas break were greeted by turmoil on stock exchanges, with Germany’s share index posting its worst start to a new year on record and London’s FTSE 100 putting in its second-worst start. As European markets closed, Wall Street looked set for the sharpest new year losses since the 1930s. Continue reading...
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by Helena Smith in Athens on (#ZKV9)
Last year was deeply tumultuous for the troubled country but with growing fears of social unrest, 2016 could be even more unpredicatableWhen Stavros Staikos thinks of the year ahead, he expresses dread. Although stoic in demeanour, the retired merchant seaman struggles to be upbeat about his country and his own circumstances. “It’s hard to be optimistic,†he says, waiting his turn for financial advice in the central Athens branch of the Union of Consumers and Borrowers. “Who’d have thought it would come to this? Who’d have thought that at the age of 63, I’d be worried sick about losing my home.â€Like an odyssey without end, Greece’s great economic crisis goes on and the predicament of people such as Staikos is igniting new fears of social unrest. Continue reading...
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by Nick Fletcher (until 2.45pm) and Katie Allen on (#ZHTR)
Share trading in China halted as survey renews fears of economic slowdown.Eurozone manufacturing improves, but UK and US below expectations.Around £38bn wiped off FTSE 100.5.38pm GMTSo it’s been a not-so-happy new year start on stock markets.Any investors hoping 2016 would bring some fresh market forces will have been spooked by a very familiar pattern today, as weak manufacturing data from China again provided much of the (downward) momentum.5.01pm GMTTime for a round-up of European stock markets at the close and on many exchanges it’s clearly been the worst start to the year for many years.The FTSE 100 has lost almost 2.4% on the first day of trading in 2016, that’s a drop of 149 points to 6093. The bluechip index is now at its lowest since 22 December and today marked the biggest one-day drop since a 2.5% fall on 28 September 2015. It is also the second worst opening day on record, says RBS.FTSE 100 posts 2nd worst opening day on record, down 2.6%. (h/t/ @asentance for eagle eyes on chart) pic.twitter.com/ctqs8uXj3jIf the Dow closes where it is now, down 2.2%, it will be its worst opening day performance since 1932, when it fell 8.1% on Jan 4 that year.Dow's worst starts to a year over the past century: -8.1% in 1932 -2.3% in 1922 -1.8% in 1983 -1.7% in 1930, 1980 and 2008 Currently -2.5%4.33pm GMTJust when you thought it might be safe to bet on a rising oil price, Brent crude has turned negative.It had rallied to a session high of $38.99 a barrel earlier on the back of predictions supply could be hit by tensions between Iran and Saudia Arabia. But the price fell back on worries about slower demand after news of a further factory slowdown in China and releases from the US showing its construction and manufacturing sectors had lost steam.4.23pm GMTMeanwhile, former Bank of England policymaker David Blanchflower has been scouring the skies for omens....Just saw my first adult bald eagle of 2016 not sure what it means as stocks plunge but I couldn't see any vultures circling though4.18pm GMTSweden’s central bank has come a step closer to intervening in currency markets to weaken the crown, which it worries is keeping inflation from rising back to more normal levels.Against the backdrop of negative interest rates, a quantitative easing programme and a Swedish inflation rate in negative territory at -0.1%, the Riksbank’s governor Stefan Ingves said last week the central bank was ready to start currency interventions to stop the crown from strengthening.“Since the last monetary policy meeting in mid-December, the Swedish krona has appreciated against most other currencies. If this development were to continue, it could jeopardise the ongoing upturn in inflation.â€3.51pm GMTWith global downturn fears prompting such a rocky start to the new year for global markets, what perfect timing for the IMF’s new economist to share his predictions for 2016.
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by Phillip Inman economics correspondent on (#ZJKT)
Surprise announcement that Treasury’s most senior civil servant will quit role in April triggers search for his successorSir Nicholas Macpherson, the Treasury’s most senior civil servant, will step down in April after 10 years advising successive chancellors of the exchequer.The surprise announcement will trigger a search for a new permanent secretary, most likely from the ranks of the Treasury’s senior staff, although the No 10 adviser Tom Scholar was cited by some insiders as a possible successor.
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by Hilary Osborne on (#ZKKH)
Figures show consumer credit rose by 8.3% in the year to November, with borrowing on credit cards up by £411mConsumer borrowing on credit cards, loans and overdrafts is growing at its fastest rate since before the financial crisis, according to Bank of England figures that brought further warnings over the state of UK household finances.Unsecured consumer credit was up 8.3% in the 12 months to November 2015, the Bank’s figures show, with consumers borrowing an additional £1.5bn in November. This was compared to an average increase of £1.2bn over the previous six months. The growth rate was the highest since February 2006.This will fuel concern that consumers are borrowing more and saving less to finance their spending Continue reading...
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by Dana Nuccitelli on (#ZJ6R)
A survey of economists with climate expertise finds a consensus that climate change is expensive and carbon pollution cuts are needed
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by Katie Allen on (#ZH21)
Uncertainty over EU vote and fragile global recovery means that confidence has fallen back to where it was in 2012Worries about the eurozone and shaky prospects for the wider global economy have dented confidence among bosses of the UK’s biggest companies, according to a survey.After a tumultuous 2015, when a downturn in China and sharp slowdown in global trade prompted big businesses to scale back spending plans, the year ahead will be marked by even more caution, a poll of chief financial officers (CFOs) suggests. Continue reading...
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by Frances Perraudin on (#ZGJX)
Low forecasts for pay growth contradict chancellor’s claim that rise in wages will compensate for Tory cuts to in-work benefits, says oppositionThe 10 years between 2010 and 2020 are set to be the worst decade for pay growth in almost a century, and the third worst since the 1860s, according to new research.Research from the House of Commons Library shows that real-terms wage growth is forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility to average at just 6.2% in this decade, compared with 12.7% between 2000 and 2010.Related: UK job data: pay growth slows to 2%Related: Stalling UK wage growth set to revive debate over migrant workers Continue reading...
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by Katie Allen on (#ZFK7)
The Future Cities Catapult aims to improve policymaking – be it for better flood defences, banking or medicineWhen London’s Soho was hit by a cholera outbreak in the summer of 1854 it took a maverick to pinpoint the cause and come up with a way to contain it.
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by Guardian Staff on (#ZF8C)
The chair of the Treasury select committee offers the one hope of real action over the continuing culture of greedA new year and, for bankers, it seems, a new regime. Not a tough new rule book which would help regulators to clamp down on the outrageous behaviour that caused the 2008 crisis and the ensuing economic recession, but a regime in which an official review into the culture of banking has been abandoned and the government has U-turned on a pledge to toughen up the rules holding senior bankers to account.What has prompted this change of heart? Have the bankers mended their ways after the $150bn (£96bn) of fines imposed on major banks since 2008? (Those fines, incidentally, have deprived the real economy of $3tn of credit, holding back growth around the world.) Perhaps rules to clamp down on bankers’ bonuses have finally started to erode the “greed is good†culture of the City? Or have banks started to treat their customers with respect after paying out £27bn in compensation for sustained mis-selling of payment protection insurance? Continue reading...
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by Heather Stewart on (#ZF8E)
Our outgoing economics editor on what she will regret not having to deal with in the world of politicsAs I depart this pleasant berth to cover politics for the Guardian, after almost 15 years writing about the twists and turns of the global economy, there are plenty of things I will leave behind lightly – not least a dusty pile of unread books – but, if you will excuse the self-indulgence, dear readers, here are a few things I’m missing already:Nerds
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by Katie Allen on (#ZBMM)
Factory activity cools for fifth month running as overseas demand for Chinese goods continues to fallA further slowdown in China’s vast manufacturing sector has intensified worries about the year ahead for the world’s second largest economy.The latest in a string of downbeat reports from showed that activity at China’s factor ies cooled in December for the fifth month running, as overseas demand for Chinese goods continued to fall.Related: Opinion is divided on state of Chinese economy, but not on its importance Continue reading...
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by Heather Stewart on (#ZBAG)
It is difficult to gauge true fragility of China, but economists agree it will have profound impact on the rest of the world in 2016It was perhaps fitting that China’s latest lacklustre industrial survey was the first fragment of financial data to greet the new year. Economists are divided about the risks facing the vast Chinese economy, but agree that how they play out will have profound consequences for the rest of the world in 2016.The optimists point to China’s large and growing middle class, the vast foreign currency reserves that give Beijing ample ammunition to respond to any crisis that emerges, and the authoritarian regime that allows its policymakers to force through economic change.Related: China manufacturing shrinks again but stimulus gives boost to house prices Continue reading...
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by Graeme Wearden on (#Z8VA)
London investors miss out on returns enjoyed by rival stock markets in Frankfurt, Paris, Tokyo and ShanghaiCity investors are nursing losses after the FTSE 100 ended the year as one of the worst performers among global stock markets.Britain’s biggest share index shed almost 5% during a volatile 12 months dominated by the commodities crunch and fears over China’s slowing economy.
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by Graeme Wearden on (#Z7K8)
Rolling coverage of the final trading day of the year, as Britain’s blue-chip index ends 2015 in the red
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by Larry Elliott Economics editor on (#Z82E)
Cheap credit and petrol have got Britain motoring but the Bank of England must hit the controls at the right timeThe UK ends 2015 as one of the fastest growing of the major developed economies. Unemployment is falling, the housing market is hot and consumers are happy to spend money in the shops or online. For at least the first half of 2016 it will be a case of more of the same. The reason is simple. The UK economy has plenty of momentum thanks to almost seven years of zero interest rates, rising living standards and government incentives to buy property. Even if there was a sudden nasty shock, it would take time for the effects to show up.As it happens, recent developments have been positive for growth. The fact that motorists can find petrol for less than a pound a litre reflects the tumbling price of oil on the global commodity markets. That will cut business costs and raise corporate profits while at the same time cutting domestic heating bills and the cost of travel. Continue reading...
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by Alex Hern, Jon Henley, Dan Roberts in Washington, on (#Z743)
Space explorers, genetic scientists, US voters, terrorists and hackers look set to dominate our world next year – but don’t rule out the odd pleasant surpriseNever make predictions, especially about the future. So said Mark Twain, Yogi Berra or Niels Bohr – or possibly all three.But if you must, there are really only two options: play safe and go for the obvious, or come up with forecasts so giddily optimistic that no one will take you seriously.Related: OECD fears slowdown in global trade amid China woes Continue reading...
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by Reuters in Berlin on (#Z5DQ)
Economic outlook has deteriorated, with rising US interest rates and Chinese downturn increasing risk of instabilityGlobal economic growth will be disappointing next year and the outlook for the medium-term has also deteriorated, the head of the International Monetary Fund has warned.The IMF managing director, Christine Lagarde, said the prospect of rising interest rates in the US and an economic slowdown in China were feeding uncertainty and a higher risk of economic vulnerability worldwide.Related: IMF chief Lagarde warns of disappointing global growth in 2016 – as it happened Continue reading...
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by Heather Stewart on (#Z5DS)
Tax expert Richard Murphy, widely credited with inspiring Labour’s economic policy, explains why he’s not suited to being behind the scenes“It was amazing how quickly the cold shoulder came on.†Richard Murphy, tax expert and father of Corbynomics, has heard nothing lately from Labour’s shadow chancellor and Jeremy Corbyn’s right-hand man, John McDonnell.Back in the summer, when he was propelled into the political limelight by the Corbyn leadership campaign, which was keen to show it had a coherent economic platform, Murphy began to assume he would take a senior role in Labour’s shadow Treasury team.Related: Can Corbynomics guru Richard Murphy fix Britain?Related: The Joy of Tax is no laughing matter, David Cameron | Richard Murphy Continue reading...
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by Shaun Walker in Moscow Dominic Rushe in New York C on (#Z4AM)
In an unprecedented year for the oil business, each of the major producers has its own problems. How will they react?A glut of oil, the demise of Opec and weakening global demand combined to make 2015 the year of crashing oil prices. The cost of crude fell to levels not seen for 11 years – and the decline may have further to go.There have been four sharp increases in the price of oil in the past four decades – in 1973, 1979, 1990 and 2008 – and each has led to a global recession. By that measure, a lower oil price should be positive for the world economy, with lower fuel costs for consumers and businesses in those countries that import crude outweighing the losses to producing nations.Related: Saudi Arabia's $640bn questionRelated: Nigeria overtakes South Africa to become Africa's largest economyRelated: Rouble in freefall despite rate hike Continue reading...
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by Reuters on (#Z48F)
Low oil prices, western sanctions and a falling rouble have forced Moscow to rethink its ambitious plans for a Moon exploration, according to reportsRussia is revising the scale of its space programme, the national space agency has said, after a newspaper reported that the government may be forced into billions of dollars of cuts to its ambitious Moon exploration plans.
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by Heather Stewart on (#Z3QX)
Up to 400,000 jobs are expected to be created in 2016, but the pool of skilled migrant labour will make it hard for workers to restore pay to pre-crash levelsAverage pay growth for Britain’s workers is likely to stall at about 2% in 2016, as the ready availability of migrants makes it easy for employers to fill vacancies, according to a forecast of the labour market.In its annual assessment, the Chartered Institute for Personnel and Development (CIPD), which represents the human resources profession, says job creation will remain strong over the next 12 months, but wage growth has reached a plateau.Related: Factories forecast to shed tens of thousands of jobs in 2016 Continue reading...
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by Editorial on (#Z31N)
The charges against a notorious Manhattan hedge fund manager expose a lazy business model that puts shareholder profits above investment in the products of the futureSchadenfreude, thy name is Martin Shkreli. Few arrests this year can have been greeted with as much jubilation as that of the one-time Manhattan hedge fund manager. Not in outrage at the actual charges of securities and wire fraud – but because the cuffing was seen as payback for Mr Shkreli’s unrelated practice of buying old life-saving drugs then jacking up the price to eyewatering levels. Take Daraprim, a 62-year-old cure for a life-threatening parasitic infection – bought in August by Mr Shkreli, who then hiked the price overnight from $13.50 a tablet (just over £9) to $750 (a little over £506). That move united the Democrat presidential rivals Bernie Sanders and Hilary Clinton – not to mention medical professionals and much of the public – in dismay and condemnation. Mr Shkreli goes so far as to blame that furore for his arrest – which is a convenient position for any defendant to adopt.What was it about that story that turned so many stomachs? One aspect must have been the sheer parasitism of the business model. As a doctor at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai asked plaintively, “What is it that they are doing differently that has led to this dramatic increase?†The answer, of course, was: nothing. For many, this broke a fundamental rule of capitalism – that reward should be commensurate with risk. Continue reading...
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by Katie Allen and Julia Kollewe (now) on (#Z1T7)
Investors snap up riskier assets such as stocks and emerging market currencies on the back of the rally in oil prices
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by Tom Phillips in Beijing and Karl West on (#Z1SR)
JLR is popular in China, but the slowing economy could dent carmaker’s prospects in one of its most enthusiastic marketsSu Weiping marches into Beijing’s biggest Jaguar Land Rover showroom wearing a thick gold chain and an ear-to-ear grin.“I’ve bought this one,†said the 58-year-old businessman, pointing to a bright red Discovery Sport. He has just laid down 408,000 yuan (£42,000) for the British off-roader. “It’s for my daughter. She loves this brand!†Su said, as he inspected his purchase. “Everyone dreams of having one.â€Related: Jaguar Land Rover's £1bn factory in Slovakia 'could threaten UK jobs' Continue reading...
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by Katie Allen on (#Z111)
Report finds that in first three quarters of 2015 food, petrol and energy costs were all down year on year, and wages finally rose in real termsCheaper petrol and food left households with more money to spend on new cars, furniture and going out this year.A new report into disposable incomes highlights how lower spending on essentials in 2015 meant Britons were able to buy more luxury items like jewellery and watches as well as spending more on their homes and gardens.Related: 2016 will be a year of living dangerously for the global economy Continue reading...
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by Press Association on (#Z10Z)
Almost 2 million more children than now will be in poverty in 15 years’ time, says thinktank analysis of government policiesAlmost 2 million more children than there are at the moment will be in poverty at Christmas in 15 years’ time, according to a highly critical thinktank analysis of government policies.Related: With no opposition, the Tories are free to do what they like | Nick Cohen Continue reading...
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by Katie Allen on (#Z10X)
Manufacturers’ organisation EEF predicts sector will see modest growth but cautious mood will prompt further cuts to UK jobs and investmentBritish manufacturers will shed tens of thousands of jobs next year as they battle a tough export market, the fallout from steel plant closures and a collapse in demand from the embattled North Sea oil industry, an industry group has forecast.The manufacturers’ organisation EEF said the factory sector will shrug off this year’s recession and eke out modest growth in 2016 but it warned a number of risks loom on the horizon, chief among them a sharper downturn in China that could trigger a global slump.Related: UK manufacturing expects hard winter aheadRelated: The whole ecosystem of working-class life is at stake in Britain’s steel crisis | Paul Mason Continue reading...
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by Rajeev Syal on (#Z0MN)
Shadow chancellor highlights downgrading by official economists of likelihood of budget being in surplus by end of parliamentGeorge Osborne has been described by his Labour counterpart as the “coin-toss chancellor†after official figures indicated that prospects for the success of plans to make spending targets have been downgraded.Figures in last month’s autumn statement suggest the chancellor now has a 50/50 chance of getting the budget into surplus as promised by the end of the parliament. Continue reading...
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by Larry Elliott on (#YWSA)
As oil prices fall further, China slows and Brazil risks collapse, cracks will be papered over and the scene set for a new implosionEconomic forecasting is a mug’s game. One thing that has been learned from the financial crisis and Great Recession is that even those equipped with the most sophisticated models get it wrong, sometimes spectacularly.So it is with both humility and trepidation that I will try to fulfil a promise made last week and make predictions for what is going to happen in 2016. In all honesty, the future is unknowable and anybody who says otherwise is lying.Related: Oil price falls to 11-year low with global glut expected to deepen in 2016Related: Five factors that shook the world’s markets in 2015Related: Brazil has debt rating cut to 'junk' status as problems mount Continue reading...
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by Katie Allen on (#YWCN)
60 students at Coventry University divide their time between lecture halls and Unipart’s nearby site, working on live projects“Ever since I was a child, I was always interested in taking things apart and seeing how they go back together,†says 19-year-old Nick Hugill.“The video player if it was broken, the TV. It was pens mainly. My dad would get annoyed that there wasn’t a working pen in the house.â€
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by William Keegan on (#YW6R)
Cameron and Osborne blame their spending cuts on the Blair/Brown legacy, when really it’s all about their obsession with tax cutsI did not get where I am today predicting the future of the Labour party’s electoral prospects; nor, for that matter, by forecasting the outcome of a referendum called by a prime minister prepared to gamble with the future of the United Kingdom in order to keep his party in office.For, although it may now be conventional wisdom that Ed Miliband was never going to win an election in a thousand years, it did not seem such an odds-on bet to David Cameron at the time, when, frightened by the threat to his position by Ukip and his Conservative colleagues, he committed himself to the coming referendum. Continue reading...
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by Larry Elliott, Gwyn Topham,Nils Pratley,Heather St on (#YT4K)
The Big Short is released in the new year, but greed and financial crashes have long been popular cinema themes. Here are our business team’s top picksFor filmmakers, the financial crisis just keeps on giving. January sees the UK release of The Big Short, the latest in a line of dramas and feature-length documentaries about the high-stakes world of financial markets leading up to the crash.
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by Graeme Wearden on (#YN6P)
Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as the London stock market closes for Christmas1.07pm GMTRoll out the brandy butter and put on the party hats.The London stock market has closed, and won’t reopen until Tuesday 28th.Volumes are thin across Europe today, with some markets already shut for the holidays.However, in London the session has seen the FTSE 100 add some small gains to its tally for the week, having seen a decent bounce over the last two days. Even now, miners are in the news, having dominated the agenda so much of late. Anglo American has managed to add some small change to its dwindling cash pile as it sells off a coal mine in Australia – disposals were a key theme for miners in recent months, and the fire sale will continue into the New Year.12.49pm GMTLove him or hate him, Yanis Varoufakis was undoubtedly one of the key figures of this year.Some see the former Greek finance minister as a valiant champion of anti-austerity polities, others blame him for driving Greece back into recession, capital controls and a tough third bailout.“I regret that we were a failure. A heroic failure, but a failure nonetheless.â€Stories of 2015: Yanis Varoufakis, Syriza's anti-austerity motorbiker https://t.co/BDSoZU0R9B12.15pm GMTMarks & Spencer is feeling the pre-Christmas love.... its shares are now up 1.1%.They have fallen more than 10% this month, pushed down by fears that it might struggle this Christmas.11.57am GMTSo much for the oil price rebounding.... Brent crude is now down 1%, as its early gains evaporate.11.52am GMTConner Campbell of SpreadEx says the markets look rather weary today, after posting a 2% jump on WednesdayHeading into the Christmas break with all the enthusiasm of someone who has received the ugliest jumper imaginable, the markets are failing to capitalise on yesterday’s super surge.11.47am GMTTrading volumes in the City are exceptionally light.Just 73 million shares have changed hands so far - compared to an average of 588 million over the last few days. You’d almost think investors were busy getting ready for Christmas....Is there literally anyone left out there trading?11.43am GMTRaindrops are now slouching their way down the windows of City offices, helping to dampen festive spirits among traders who made the trip into work.European markets are generally under a cloud too, with the Stoxx 600 index (which tracks the 600 biggest companies in Europe) now down 0.2%.11.31am GMTRather like a festive reveller*, the London stock market is stumbling as it enters the final lap before Christmas.The FTSE 100 is now up a measly 1 point, with one hour to go until the early Christmas finish. And oil’s early rally is fizzling out too....11.23am GMT11.13am GMTRather like the Ghost of Christmas Past, former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has made a festive appearance.....and dished out some rather unfestive comments.“It was a pure coup, one big coup. And that has succeededHe’s the puppet master who pulls all the strings. All the other ministers are marionettes. Schäuble is the grandmaster of the Eurogroup. He decides who becomes the president, he determines the agenda, he controls everything.â€He can’t make any decisions without calling Schäuble.â€Varoufakis makes sure no Xmas cards will be exchanged with some of his ex #euro group colleagues https://t.co/FHMxPFQQ37 #Greece10.17am GMTAnd lo, there appeared some economic news....
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by Esther Addley on (#YNK7)
When Syriza won nearly half the seats in Greece’s January elections, the academic economist won a rockstar following, preaching an alternative to austerityThe year 2015 did not begin – or end – as Yanis Varoufakis might have predicted. This time last year, having finished a busy academic term at the University of Texas in Austin where he was a visiting professor in economics, he had flown to Australia for a holiday. Varoufakis has a teenage daughter with his first wife – the pair now live in Sydney – and he was hoping, as he puts it, “to have a quiet timeâ€. Continue reading...
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