As oil prices fall further, China slows and Brazil risks collapse, cracks will be papered over and the scene set for a new implosionEconomic forecasting is a mug’s game. One thing that has been learned from the financial crisis and Great Recession is that even those equipped with the most sophisticated models get it wrong, sometimes spectacularly.So it is with both humility and trepidation that I will try to fulfil a promise made last week and make predictions for what is going to happen in 2016. In all honesty, the future is unknowable and anybody who says otherwise is lying.Related: Oil price falls to 11-year low with global glut expected to deepen in 2016Related: Five factors that shook the world’s markets in 2015Related: Brazil has debt rating cut to 'junk' status as problems mount Continue reading...

60 students at Coventry University divide their time between lecture halls and Unipart’s nearby site, working on live projects“Ever since I was a child, I was always interested in taking things apart and seeing how they go back together,” says 19-year-old Nick Hugill.“The video player if it was broken, the TV. It was pens mainly. My dad would get annoyed that there wasn’t a working pen in the house.”

Cameron and Osborne blame their spending cuts on the Blair/Brown legacy, when really it’s all about their obsession with tax cutsI did not get where I am today predicting the future of the Labour party’s electoral prospects; nor, for that matter, by forecasting the outcome of a referendum called by a prime minister prepared to gamble with the future of the United Kingdom in order to keep his party in office.For, although it may now be conventional wisdom that Ed Miliband was never going to win an election in a thousand years, it did not seem such an odds-on bet to David Cameron at the time, when, frightened by the threat to his position by Ukip and his Conservative colleagues, he committed himself to the coming referendum. Continue reading...

The Big Short is released in the new year, but greed and financial crashes have long been popular cinema themes. Here are our business team’s top picksFor filmmakers, the financial crisis just keeps on giving. January sees the UK release of The Big Short, the latest in a line of dramas and feature-length documentaries about the high-stakes world of financial markets leading up to the crash.

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as the London stock market closes for Christmas1.07pm GMTRoll out the brandy butter and put on the party hats.The London stock market has closed, and won’t reopen until Tuesday 28th.Volumes are thin across Europe today, with some markets already shut for the holidays.However, in London the session has seen the FTSE 100 add some small gains to its tally for the week, having seen a decent bounce over the last two days. Even now, miners are in the news, having dominated the agenda so much of late. Anglo American has managed to add some small change to its dwindling cash pile as it sells off a coal mine in Australia – disposals were a key theme for miners in recent months, and the fire sale will continue into the New Year.12.49pm GMTLove him or hate him, Yanis Varoufakis was undoubtedly one of the key figures of this year.Some see the former Greek finance minister as a valiant champion of anti-austerity polities, others blame him for driving Greece back into recession, capital controls and a tough third bailout.“I regret that we were a failure. A heroic failure, but a failure nonetheless.”Stories of 2015: Yanis Varoufakis, Syriza's anti-austerity motorbiker https://t.co/BDSoZU0R9B12.15pm GMTMarks & Spencer is feeling the pre-Christmas love.... its shares are now up 1.1%.They have fallen more than 10% this month, pushed down by fears that it might struggle this Christmas.11.57am GMTSo much for the oil price rebounding.... Brent crude is now down 1%, as its early gains evaporate.11.52am GMTConner Campbell of SpreadEx says the markets look rather weary today, after posting a 2% jump on WednesdayHeading into the Christmas break with all the enthusiasm of someone who has received the ugliest jumper imaginable, the markets are failing to capitalise on yesterday’s super surge.11.47am GMTTrading volumes in the City are exceptionally light.Just 73 million shares have changed hands so far - compared to an average of 588 million over the last few days. You’d almost think investors were busy getting ready for Christmas....Is there literally anyone left out there trading?11.43am GMTRaindrops are now slouching their way down the windows of City offices, helping to dampen festive spirits among traders who made the trip into work.European markets are generally under a cloud too, with the Stoxx 600 index (which tracks the 600 biggest companies in Europe) now down 0.2%.11.31am GMTRather like a festive reveller*, the London stock market is stumbling as it enters the final lap before Christmas.The FTSE 100 is now up a measly 1 point, with one hour to go until the early Christmas finish. And oil’s early rally is fizzling out too....11.23am GMT11.13am GMTRather like the Ghost of Christmas Past, former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has made a festive appearance.....and dished out some rather unfestive comments.“It was a pure coup, one big coup. And that has succeededHe’s the puppet master who pulls all the strings. All the other ministers are marionettes. Schäuble is the grandmaster of the Eurogroup. He decides who becomes the president, he determines the agenda, he controls everything.”He can’t make any decisions without calling Schäuble.”Varoufakis makes sure no Xmas cards will be exchanged with some of his ex #euro group colleagues https://t.co/FHMxPFQQ37 #Greece10.17am GMTAnd lo, there appeared some economic news....

When Syriza won nearly half the seats in Greece’s January elections, the academic economist won a rockstar following, preaching an alternative to austerityThe year 2015 did not begin – or end – as Yanis Varoufakis might have predicted. This time last year, having finished a busy academic term at the University of Texas in Austin where he was a visiting professor in economics, he had flown to Australia for a holiday. Varoufakis has a teenage daughter with his first wife – the pair now live in Sydney – and he was hoping, as he puts it, “to have a quiet time”. Continue reading...

GDP estimate for third quarter cut from 0.5% to 0.4% after sharp slowdown in services, meaning UK chancellor is unlikely to hit growth forecastsGeorge Osborne has received a second pre-Christmas setback after official figures showing a a stuttering performance by the economy in the months following the general election put the government’s 2015 growth forecast at risk.Following much worse than expected borrowing figures on Tuesday, the Office for National Statistics pared back its estimate for gross domestic product in the third quarter of the year - and said activity had also been weaker in the previous three months.Related: UK economy weaker than expected - liveRelated: Latest borrowing figures threaten Osborne's deficit target Continue reading...

Analysts believe growth figures of 0.4% mean no interest rate rise until well into 20162.38pm GMTTaking its lead from markets elsewhere, Wall Street has opened sharply higher as commodity prices - oil in particular - gained ground.The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 133 points or 0.7% in early trading, while the S&P 500 is up 0.37% and Nasdaq is 0.49% better.2.20pm GMTBack with the UK GDP figures, and here is economics correspondent Phillip Inman’s analysis of what the data means for the chancellor:George Osborne’s year has ended with a bump. Like a Strictly Come Dancing finalist drunk on high marks for his paso doble and tango, he has come unstuck on the last foxtrot.Official growth figures have been downgraded for the third quarter, undermining boasts that the UK was marching hand in hand with the US as one of the best-performing economies in the western world.A series of revisions by the Office for Budget Responsibility had upgraded the UK’s growth forecasts while maintaining the steady path of deficit reduction. With the economy expanding at a rate our European neighbours could only dream of, and the annual deficit predicted to reach zero by the end of the parliament, Osborne’s chances of becoming the next prime minister seemed on track.Now that the Office for National Statistics has told us that growth in the third quarter was lower than previously forecast, the rate for the whole year is likely to be around 2.2%, compared to 2.9% in 2014.Related: George Osborne's economic year ends with a bump1.43pm GMTBusiness investment in the US slowed last month as orders for capital goods (excluding defence and aircraft) fell 0.4%, more than double the decline expected.This compares to a rise of 0.6% in October, itself down from an initial reading of a 1.3% increase.1.23pm GMTGreece has received €1bn from the EU bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism after completing a second set of reform milestones.The money will be used for debt service, budget financing and co-financing projects funded by EU structural funds. The ESM has also handed over €5.4bn for bank recapitalistation. In a statement the ESM said:ESM Managing Director Klaus Regling said: “With the disbursement of €1 billion, the ESM is supporting the Greek government in its reform process. The reforms cover a wide array of policy fields that are important to modernise the Greek economy. Notable examples include measures to stimulate competition in the energy sector, which should bring down prices, as well as a new law to help banks manage their exposure to non-performing assets, which will free liquidity and boost economic activity.Mr Regling added: “I hope the good cooperation with our Greek partners will continue, so that the first review of the ESM programme can be completed in early 2016. Only a successful conclusion of this review can lead to discussions on further debt relief for Greece, as the Eurogroup has said before.”1.20pm GMTDespite the weak GDP figures, a rate rise from the Bank of England is still expected next year, even if not in the immediate future. Calum Bennie, savings expert at Scottish Friendly said:Growth may be fragile but it is continuing and so attention will turn to an interest rate rise at some point in 2016. This is yet another sign that the party could be over for cheap borrowing. The guests may still be in the room but the music has stopped and with interest rate rises on the horizon borrowers have to prepare now for the very real possibility of larger debt repayments in 2016. People need to turn their attention to putting money aside to reduce any risks to their financial future as there is a degree of uncertainty ahead.12.28pm GMTHere’s our take on the UK GDP figures by economics editor Larry Elliott:The chances of the government hitting its growth forecast for 2015 has receded after official figures showed the economy performing less well than originally thought in the first three-quarters of the year.In a second pre-Christmas setback for George Osborne, the Office for National Statistics on Wednesday cut its estimates for expansion in both the second and third quarters.Related: More pain for George Osborne as ONS cuts UK economic growth11.46am GMTUK productivity, measured by output per hour, grew by 0.5% from the second to third quarter. The ONS said this was the highest level recorded for the series, but since it only began in 2008, it is 13% below a trend extrapolated before the financial downturn in that year.11.23am GMTBetter news for the UK government, with the current account deficit stable at £17.5bn in the third quarter compared to expectations of a figure of £21.5bn.That accounts for 3.7% of GDP and is down from the peak figure of £28.5bn in the fourth quarter of last year. IHS Global Insight economist Howard Archer said:The UK current account deficit was unexpectedly stable in the third quarter at the lowest level since the third quarter of 2013 as a reduced shortfall in investment income countered a renewed widening in the total trade deficit.It is of some relief that the UK current account deficit was stable at a reduced level in the third quarter. While the markets have so far taken a relatively relaxed view of the UK’s elevated current account deficit, it could become an increasing problem if the markets lose confidence in the UK economy for any reason.11.16am GMTThe GDP figures show the problem of the UK economy relying on domestic demand, says economist Nina Skero at the Centre for Economics and Business Research:Today’s release only adds fuel to the existing concerns that economic growth is overly reliant on household consumption. Given continued subdued performance in key markets and the relative strength of sterling (which may get even stronger as interest rates begin to rise), boosting trade prospects will require constant government encouragement. Programmes such as Exporting is Great, which offer advice and access to export opportunities for firms, are a step in the right direction. We still expect relatively robust GDP growth of 2.0% in 2016, but much of this relies on the boost to consumption arising from low inflation and higher wages. While this is fine in the short term, it is not sustainable formula for economic growth in the long run.11.10am GMTMore from the UK GDP report.First, the dominance of the service sector:10.59am GMTBack with the UK GDP figures and David Kern, British Chambers of Commerce chief economist said:It is not hugely surprising to see GDP growth downgraded slightly, as it is in line with the revisions in our own forecast earlier this month. However it is concerning that it weaker growth in our dominant services sector has played a part.Given the slump in our manufacturing sector, our services sector will still be expected to drive economic growth as we enter 2016.10.42am GMTOn the oil price, Opec assumes it will average $55 a barrel during 2015 (at the moment Brent crude is $36.48) and will reach $70 (in 2014 prices) by 2020 and $95 by 2040:[This reflects] a gradual improvement in market conditions as growing demand and slower than previously expected non-Opec supply growth eliminate the existing oversupply and lead to a more balanced market. This, in turn, will provide support to prices.10.35am GMTOpec also predicts that $10trn of investment is needed by 2040 to cover future needs:The increase in the overall requirement for OPEC crude between 2015 and 2040 is almost 10 mb/d, while for non-OPEC liquids it is just over 3 mb/d.It all means that investments remain huge. Oil-related investment requirements are estimated to be around $10 trillion between now and 2040. In the current market environment what this underlines is the delicate balance between prices, the cost of the marginal barrel and future supplies.10.26am GMTDemand for Opec’s crude oil will be lower in 2020 than next year, with supply from rivals proving stronger than expected, according to the oil producing organistation’s latest outlook report.The prediction raises questions about how successful Opec’s strategy of not cutting production to keep crude prices low has been at hurting other producers. Reuters reports:Opec... which a year ago refused to cut supply to retain market share against higher-cost rivals, in its 2015 World Oil Outlook raised its global supply forecasts for tight oil, which includes shale, despite a collapse in prices.Demand for Opec crude will reach 30.70 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2020, OPEC said, lower than 30.90 million bpd next year. The expected demand from OPEC in 2020 is about 1 million bpd less than it is currently producing.Oil has more than halved its price in 18 months [which] has helped to boost oil’s medium-term use, although OPEC said the demand stimulus of low crude prices will fade over time.“The impact of the recent oil price decline on demand is most visible in the short term,” Opec Secretary-General Abdullah al-Badri wrote in the foreword to the report. “It then drops away over the medium term.”10.11am GMTThe UK’s economy is now expected to grow by 2.2% in 2015, rather than 2.4%, according to IHS Global Insight economist Howard Archer. In the wake of the disappointing third quarter GDP figures and the lower numbers for the previous quarter, he said:GDP growth was disappointingly revised down to 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and 2.1% year-on-year from the previously reported 0.5% quarter-on-quarter and 2.3% year-on-year. In addition, second quarter GDP growth was revised down to 0.5% quarter-on-quarter from 0.7% quarter-on-quarter.Growth was held back in the third quarter by net trade which knocked 1.0 percentage points off growth. This fuels concern that UK growth is far too reliant on domestic demand, even allowing for the fact that the third quarter trade performance was partly a payback for a strong second quarter.10.00am GMTThe UK Treasury is of course putting a brave face on the disappointing GDP figures, reminding everyone that the IMF praised the UK economy but warning that risks remain:Read our spokesperson quote in response to today’s @ONS quarterly national accounts release #GDP pic.twitter.com/lYHtAbYueg9.56am GMTHowever, GDP growth per head is now back above the level seen during the financial crisis in 2008:Nearly 8 years later, UK GDP per head is finally back above pre-crisis levels. pic.twitter.com/dpijCNN2l19.47am GMTThe weaker than expected UK GDP figures come a day after disappointing borrowing data of course:Related: Latest borrowing figures threaten Osborne's deficit target9.44am GMTUK GDP growth of 2.1% in Q3 was the lowest in 2 years, below every forecast from 30 economists polled by Reuters. pic.twitter.com/KLs2Vw4fN09.40am GMTHere is a chart from the ONS showing the breakdown of GDP, and the changes between this reading and the last:9.36am GMTWeaker growth in the service sector was behind the lower growth figure, according to the Office for National Statistics.As well as third quarter growth being revised downwards, annual growth was also cut from the previous reading of 2.3% to 2.1%.9.31am GMTBreaking news:The UK economy grew less strongly than previously thought in the third quarter, up 0.4% compared to initial estimates of 0.5%.9.10am GMTHere’s our report on Game Digital from Sean Farrell:Game Digital shares plunged after the retailer warned that profit would fall sharply after sales of games since the start of the Christmas holidays were worse than expected.The seller of video games and consoles said UK sales for the 21 weeks to 19 December fell 11.4% to £353.4m as gamers failed to buy enough games for new consoles to make up for a steep fall in demand for older formats.Related: Game shares fall 40% after profit warning8.40am GMTMore on the French economy:Sharp drop in #French consumer goods spending in Nov. suggests total household spending will be a drag on GDP in Q4. pic.twitter.com/u3SeOgIXix8.28am GMTMining shares are among the gainers in London, points out Tony Cross, market analyst at Trustnet Direct. He said:London’s FTSE-100 has surged higher at the open with thin volumes ahead of the Christmas break arguably exaggerating the move. Hopes that Chinese stimulus measures could buoy the fortunes of natural resources stocks, combined with some elements of a short squeeze, have driven miners to the top of the board. These gains may well look a little more sustainable after iron ore prices rose in Australian trade.8.11am GMTEuropean stock markets, as forecast, have made some strong opening gains.The FTSE 100 is up 68 points or 1.1% in early trading, while Germany’s Dax has added 1.2%, France’s Cac and Spain’s Ibex have both climbed 1%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB is 0.8% higher.8.06am GMTCompany tax affairs are in the spotlight at the moment.Amazon and eBay are facing action over VAT, as Simon Bowers reports:Top tax officials are exploring whether Amazon and eBay can be forced to foot the bill for ballooning VAT fraud associated with an army of small overseas sellers who are rapidly coming to dominate sales of many popular items on Britain’s leading shopping websites.Related: Amazon and eBay face crackdown over VAT fraud by overseas sellersRelated: Anger at City banks paying little or no corporation tax8.03am GMTThe French economy grew by 0.3% in the third quarter, confirming earlier readings after showing no growth in the previous three months.Meanwhile French consumer spending fell unexpectedly by 1.1% in November, compared to expectations of a 0.1% increase.French consumer spending on goods disappointingly fell back 1.1% m/m in Nov in blow for Q4 growth hopes. We currently expect 0.2% q/q growth7.52am GMTAnd an early Christmas profit warning. Computer games retailer Game Digital said it had seen challenging trading conditions and disappointing sales since the start of the festive school holidays.So it expected half year profits to come in at £30m. Analysts at Liberum said:UK sales have fallen off sharply in the past few weeks at the most critical time of year for Game. General weakness has been exacerbated by very rapidly slowing sales in old format content, down 57% in the UK, and while sales of new generation content remained strong these were not enough to offset the decline. The Spanish market remains strong with sales up 8%.While a decline in old format sales was expected the scale has surprised the company while the importance of Christmas trading has hugely magnified the issue. We cut our full year earnings per share forecasts by 60%, 2017 estimates by 42% and 2018 by 30%. There is no updated guidance on the dividend, but we note that current year cover is just 0.5 times.7.47am GMTMeanwhile oil prices have edged higher, with Brent crude up 1% to $36.48 a barrel.

With the ONS cutting the UK growth rate and government borrowing now much higher than forecast the chancellor’s star appears to be waningGeorge Osborne’s year has ended with a bump. Like a Strictly Come Dancing finalist drunk on high marks for his paso doble and tango, he has come unstuck on the last foxtrot.Official growth figures have been downgraded for the third quarter, undermining boasts that the UK was marching hand in hand with the US as one of the best-performing economies in the western world.Related: More pain for George Osborne as ONS cuts UK economic growth Continue reading...

Both third quarter and second quarter figures revised down by Office for National StatisticsBritain’s economy grew less strongly than previously thought in much of 2015, according to official data that is likely to surprise the Bank of England as it ponders when to raise interest rates.Related: UK economy weaker than expected - liveRelated: Economy concerns as household debt rises to £40bn in latest figures Continue reading...

Budget deficit 10% higher last month than in November 2014 – although one-off factors such as £1.1bn in bank fines played a partFears were heightened on Tuesday that George Osborne will miss his deficit reduction targets after the latest official figures showed that the government’s budget deficit was 10% higher last month than in November 2014.The City said the chancellor now faced an uphill struggle to cut the deficit to £68.9bn in the 2015-16 financial year after figures for the first eight months showed borrowing already at £66.9bn.Related: The roof is being fixed but beware the house crashing beneath it Continue reading...

UK public sector borrowing rises 10% in November to £14.2bn, putting pressure on chancellor’s full year target2.37pm GMTUS markets have made a bright start to trading following the better than expected third quarter GDP figures.The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently up around 53 points or 0.3%, helping to support European markets which had been tending to drift a little before the US open.2.11pm GMTFollowing the poor UK public finances figures and the reasonable US GDP numbers - which show why the Federal Reserve was happy to raise US rates - the pound has fallen back.Sterling has fallen to an eight month low of $1.4860, down 0.2% on the day. Against a basket of currencies it is down 0.3% to a ten week low.2.09pm GMTGDP revisions look mildly better after excluding net exports and inventories, but slumping corp. profits serve as reminder to hike slowly.2.09pm GMTUS corporate profits fell by 1.6% in the third quarter, compared to a 3.5% rise in the previous three months.1.44pm GMT1.34pm GMTThe US economy continues to grow at a healthy pace, although by slightly less than first expected.The latest revision to the third quarter figures showed GDP growth of 2% on an annual basis, down from the 2.1% previously reported. But this was better than the 1.9% analysts had expected. Strong consumer and business spending offset attempts by business to reduce inventories.1.18pm GMTEuropean shares are drifting after a bright start.The FTSE 100 is currently 0.75% higher despite worse than expected public finance figures, but Germany’s Dax is virtually unchanged while France’s Cac is up just 0.2%.12.32pm GMT#Turkey Lira weakened after central bank left its benchmark rate on hold at 7.50%, vs consensus of a hike to 8.00%. pic.twitter.com/xBA0Ktpfte12.29pm GMTTurkey’s central bank has kept interest rates unchanged, confounding expectations of an increase in borrowing costs.The overnight rate is held at 7.25% despite forecasts of a 25 basis point increase while the repurchase rate is 7.5% compared to expectations of a rise to 8%.11.22am GMTDespite all the concerns about the Spanish economy following the weekend election and the subsequent uncertainty about the country’s future government, the country’s central bank has raised its growth forecasts for this year and next.The Bank of Spain said it expected the country’s economy to grow by 0.8% in the fourth quarter, the same level as in the previous three months, and it lifted its growth forecast for 2015 from 3.1% to 3.2%. For 2016 it is now predicting growth of 2.8%, up from its previous estimate of 2.7%.Internally the main source of uncertainty is associated with the evolution of economic policies, given how much the reform agenda and budget policies in particular affect confidence.10.58am GMTTata Steel is in discussions to sell its struggling UK businesses to investment group Greybull Capital which could safeguard thousands of jobs.The companies have signed a letter of intent and have entered exclusive talks. The deal involves Tata’s Long Products Europe division, including its Scunthorpe steelworks, mills in Teesside and northern France, an engineering workshop in Workington, a design consultancy in York, and associated distribution facilities. It also includes Tata Steel’s Scottish mills in Dalzell and Clydebridge which are currently being mothballed.10.41am GMTGeorge Osborne’s plan to repair Britain’s public finances has received a fresh setback from official figures showing that the budget deficit in November was 10% higher than in the same month in 2014, writes our economics editor Larry Elliott.The Office for National Statistics said the gap between spending and revenues last month was £14.2bn - an increase of £1.3bn on November 2014.Officials said that one reason for the deterioration was that last November had seen the payment of fines by financial institutions totalling £1.1bn, which had not been repeated in November 2015.Related: Latest borrowing figures threaten Osborne's deficit target10.27am GMTEconomist Howard Archer at IHS Global Insight said:If the pattern of the first 8 months of fiscal year 2015/16 continued over the rest of the year, PSNBex would come in at £81.2 billion. This compares with the target of £68.9 billion contained in November’s Autumn Statement.The Chancellor now faces a massive task to meet his fiscal targets for 2015/16 and it is frankly hard to see how he can make it –even allowing for the fact that (1) public finances can be volatile from month to month (partly due to the timing of expenditures) and can be revised significantly; and (2) the OBR argues that there should indeed be a substantial improvement in the public finances over the final months of 2015/16 due to a number of factors. This particularly includes an expected jump in self-assessment tax receipts in January resulting from past policy measures. The OBR also expects spending cuts to have an increasing impact as pressure to meet budget targets mounts on departments subject to Treasury controls10.24am GMTGradual progress but much more needed is the verdict of David Kern, chief economist of the British Chambers of Commerce:Although we saw a minor setback in November, gradual progress is being made with reducing the deficit. The public finances are likely to be better this year than in the previous financial year, but the improvement may not be as large as the OBR suggested in the Autumn Statement.The underlying message remains that our budget deficit is still too high, and greater efforts are needed, through reducing current public spending and generating sufficient tax receipts.10.21am GMTThe UK public finances are not improving as much as hoped, said James Knightly of ING Bank:UK public sector net borrowing (excluding banking groups ) came in at £14.2bn in November versus expectations of £11.8bn. This is actually higher than in November last year (£12.9bn). While we have to acknowledge there does tend to be a lot of volatility in the month to month figures, the cumulative borrowing fiscal year to date suggests that Chancellor Osborne is going to struggle to hit his target. So far, 2015-16 to date borrowing is at £66.9bn, which is only $6.6bn lower than in in the same period of 2014-15. The OBR’s full financial year forecast is £73.5bn [see earlier] but barring a dramatic improvement in the trend, it is looking likely to be missed by possibly more than £5bn.In terms of the breakdown, there have been good improvements in tax revenue with full year to date figures showing a 4.6% increase in income taxes, 4.1% improvement in VAT and a 6.4% increase in corporation tax, which is confirmation of the good growth and employment figures we have seen over the year. Stamp duty collection is disappointing though while fuel, alcohol and vehicle duties have shown little change on the year. Overall, central government receipts are up 3.1% full year to date while government expenditure is up 1.2%. Here, we have seen falling debt interest costs, but net investment is up 8.7%, social benefits are up 1% and department spending is up 1.2%.

The Tories’ failed model and stagnant economy has encouraged an unsustainable rise in household debt. Labour needs to come up with a viable alternativeTis the season to whip out the credit card. As I type, millions of Britons are undoubtedly flooding into shops or splashing out online full of festive panic: set spending habits to Defcon Christmas. So apologies in advance for the Scroogefest, but latest figures confirm Britain’s supposed economic recovery rests on a personal debt timebomb. When it runs out is unclear, but run out it will.Related: Latest borrowing figures threaten Osborne's deficit targetRelated: UK pay rises likely to fade fast, thinktank warns Continue reading...

Finance minister says the budget marks the first step towards Japan’s fiscal plan as it aims for economic revival and a reduction in its debt burdenThe Japanese government is planning nearly £537bn of record spending in the next fiscal year to shore up a fragile economy, with Tokyo also promising to rein in a bulging debt burden in an expansionary budget set to be unveiled this week.Related: Japan 's 'quintuple dip' recession delivers a fresh blow to Abenomics Continue reading...

The Doha round’s promise of better market access for the poorest nations, cuts in farm subsidies and fairer trade rules has come to nothing

Labour accuses George Osborne of ‘risky behaviour’ as Office for Budget Responsibility forecast shows decline from £67bn surplus in 2010Families are expected to run up £40bn of debt this year, sparking fears about Britain’s economic recovery.

Few will have heard of local union leader John Burgess, but he is now confronting the nightmare we will all faceJohn Burgess talks a mile a minute, dresses in any colour as long as it’s black, and refers to other men as “lad” – even if they’re older than him. He’s also one of my heroes of 2015. Unlike most end-of-year gong-winners, Burgess is a name you won’t know. But if heroism is about being brave when it counts – about standing up straight even while others try to make you bend or break – he’s the real deal. And at a time when so much of the organised left is afflicted by loss of nerve, mind, or both, it is a relief to find someone who still has both.For our purposes, Burgess’s story begins in May 2008 – at the point he was hoping to hang up his boots. After a long slog as branch secretary of Unison in Barnet, north London, he planned to return to his life as a local mental-health care worker. Then the Conservative-run council began offloading its key public services to big business – and he was thrust into the biggest battle of his life. Almost eight years later, he’s still defending jobs, campaigning against cuts, pointing out the expensive absurdities of outsourcing. Going back to care work? Nice dream.Related: Outsourced and unaccountable: this is the future of local government | Aditya ChakraborttyRelated: To lose our libraries would be a national disaster – we must act to save them | Desmond Clarke Continue reading...

A 3% growth rate, the low oil price, a weak euro and no party advocating a eurozone exit meant markets had no cause to panic at the dramatic resultSpain’s dramatic election result – a hung parliament and a roughly equal split between left and rightwing parties – was followed by only modest drama in financial markets. The Ibex-35 index of leading companies lost 3.6% and the yield on 10-year Spanish bonds rose eight basis points to 1.78%, but these are not big moves in the face of what is being billed as a momentous shift in the political landscape of a large eurozone country.Complacency on the part of investors, or a rational assessment that political uncertainty probably won’t derail an economy forecast to grow by about 3% this year? On balance, the latter.Related: Spanish elections: what happens next after the unprecedented result? Continue reading...

Owen Jones acompaña a Podemos en Valencia y en Madrid durante la última semana de campaña electoral del partido, antes de las eleciones generales españolas del domingo. El Secretario General del partido, Pablo Iglesias, habla sobre la subida de la izquierda en Europa. Podemos se fundó hace escasamente dos años, a pesar de eso ha conseguido 69 escaños y obtenido un 21% de los votos

The Federal Reserve last week raised interest rates, giving hope to Britain’s beleaguered saversSavers fearful of locking into pitiful interest rates may be enticed by a slew of accounts that guarantee returns from any future rate rises.The move last week by the Federal Reserve in the US to raise interest rates for the first time since 2006 gave some hope of better returns on the horizon. Typically, the Bank of England has tended to follow US rates quite closely, but when it decides to follow suit remains a matter of speculation. Continue reading...

CBI survey shows employers plan to keep hiring staff but will limit pay rises because of the new national living wage and apprenticeship levyBritish employers expect to keep hiring permanent staff in 2016 but are cautious about offering meaningful pay rises, according to a survey from employers’ group CBI.In its annual employment outlook, the lobby group said some companies are also contemplating price hikes or recruitment freezes to offset higher labour costs from both the introduction of the “national living wage” in April and a new apprenticeship levy.Related: National living wage is a gamble, says CBI boss Continue reading...

Resolution Foundation research shows it can now take almost a quarter of a century for UK households to accumulate a big enough depositHomebuyers now have to save for up to 24 years to set aside a deposit large enough to buy them a foot on Britain’s housing ladder, according to new research.The Resolution Foundation thinktank has used the Bank of England’s latest survey of household finances to show that with house prices rising sharply, it would now take almost a quarter of a century for low- and middle-income households to accumulate a deposit on average, if they set aside 5% of their disposable income each year. Continue reading...

We need to brace ourselves for at least four more interest hikes next year and more opportunities for lenders to make all forms of consumer debt more costlyThe Fed has spoken. For the first time in nearly a decade, policymakers this week boosted key short-term interest rates. Now that the deal is done it is time for you to start looking at your interest rate policy too.Banks, having read the signals, were quick to respond. Within hours, Wells Fargo became the first in a steady parade of financial institutions to boost their own prime lending rates, with those increases taking effect Thursday. The best customers at banks like JPMorgan Chase, KeyCorp, SunTrust, PNC, Citibank, Wells Fargo and many others now will pay a base rate of 3.5% for their consumer loans, instead of the 3.25% that has been in effect for the past seven years. Continue reading...

Even the bleakest Christmases past held a silver lining and Christmas 2015 could have been far worse. But only the ghost of Christmas future knows what happens nextIt is December 1843 in London. Queen Victoria has been on the throne for six years, Sir Robert Peel is prime minister, and Charles Dickens is about to publish a seasonal novella.A Christmas Carol is the story of how the embittered miser Ebenezer Scrooge becomes generous and cuddly following visits from the ghosts of Christmas past, present and future.Related: The Guardian view on Britain’s jobs market: Osborne could use Scrooge’s caution | Editorial Continue reading...

It’s a sign of how Doha failed that leftwing protestors no longer target it as a symbol of capitalism. But some good things will fade with itOver the past few days, trade ministers from scores of countries have spent hours flogging the long-dead horse that is the Doha round of global trade talks in Nairobi – and hardly anyone noticed. The World Trade Organisation, which convened last week’s conference, was once regularly targeted by protesters as the secretive, all-powerful puppet master of global capitalism.Back in 1999, in the innocent days before the sub-prime crisis laid bare the sinister power of international finance, WTO talks in Seattle broke down amid clouds of tear gas, as anti-capitalist protesters expressed their fury at the rigged rules of the global marketplace, which, as they saw it, entrenched the wealth of the rich and excluded the poor. Yet last week’s gathering, attended by Britain’s Lord (Francis) Maude, barely registered with the world’s angry young radicals, who have turned their attention to bashing bankers – through the Occupy movement, for example. Continue reading...

Bank admits wrongdoing, an unusual move in such cases, for charges of failing to disclose conflicts of interest when promoting investments to wealthy clientsJP Morgan Chase agreed to pay $307m on Friday to settle charges that two of its wealth management units failed to disclose conflicts of interest when promoting investments to its wealthy clients.Regulators said that JP Morgan Securities and its nationally chartered bank, JPMorgan Chase Bank, steered retail investors towards the firm’s own investment products without properly disclosing that preference. Continue reading...

Kiev’s rejection of payment proposal could hinder Ukrainian efforts to restructure country’s growing debt with international creditorsUkraine has refused to repay Russia a $3bn (£2.01bn) loan after a bitter row that could put on hold Kiev’s plans to restructure its growing debt with international creditors.The Ukrainian government rejected a Kremlin proposal for repayments in three tranches of $1bn, putting the entire amount on the path to default.

Latest ONS survey covers 2012-14 and highlights gulf between country’s richest and poorest groupsBritain’s richest households have pulled further ahead of the rest of the population as house prices have accelerated, with the top 10% now owning almost half of the country’s £11.1tn total private wealth.The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the average household was worth £225,100 in 2012-14, when it carried out its latest survey of the country’s assets. Continue reading...

There is a 50/50 probability that this hike will have to be reversed and the worry is that this might mean rates going negativeGood retail sales numbers made a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve almost certain. The rise that finally did take place on Wednesday was well signalled to markets that cheered the rise, with Dow, Nasdaq and the S&P all climbing on the day by more than 1%. Thursday, however, the market was down.Related: Federal Reserve announces first rise in US interest rates since 2006Related: The Guardian view on the US interest rate rise: risky and premature | Editorial Continue reading...

Historically low interest rates over the past seven years have fueled tech investments, but now investors may be spending their money more cautiouslyThe decision to raise US interest rates for the first time in seven years could have negative effects on established startup businesses, investors have said, marking the start a new era of more cautious investment.“The historically low interest rates over the past few years have fueled asset growth in the public markets and real estate, as well as strong consumer and business spending,” says Kyle Lui, principal at DCM Ventures, a Menlo Park-based venture firm that specialises in early stage tech investments including BitTorrent, YikYak and Tiebaobei. “We could see companies across the board – from startups to large companies, start to feel the impact on normalized interest rates.”Related: Raised interest rates may end biggest merger boom the world has ever seen Continue reading...

Number-crunching of UK product sales shows seasonal items including Christmas decorations, poultry and winter knits are losing appealMany families look set to spend the festive season feasting on smoked salmon and gin while they play with a toy train set, judging by the latest official figures on popular winter spending.A bowl of soup, followed by a whisky over a jigsaw puzzle, on the other hand, appears to have fallen out of fashion. Continue reading...

Dow slips back but markets rally in Asia and Europe, the dollar strengthens, and commodities fall, after US rate rise

Christine Lagarde accused of negligence over €400m payout to businessman Bernard Tapie, who supported Nicolas Sarkozy in 2007 presidential raceChristine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, is to stand trial in France over a multimillion-euro government payment to a controversial tycoon who supported former president Nicolas Sarkozy.Lagarde has been accused of “negligence by a person in a position of public authority” over the award of more than €400m to Bernard Tapie. Continue reading...

Growth is the philosopher’s stone that offers to turn all things into gold. But, like all belief in magic – ie the belief in a free lunch – it points to a fallPerhaps, as never before, we look to the future to deal with the problems of the present. We anticipate future successes, then price them into the challenges of today. Take the recent Paris climate summit, a commitment to reducing global warning to “well below 2C”. As Richard Martin writes in the MIT Technology Review, this figure relies on emerging technologies that are barely proven. Indeed, “barring a major technological advance that is not currently foreseeable, those targets are unreachable”. Even so, we have already anticipated them in cheering the 2C figure. We have placed our faith in something called progress, in the untestable belief that things will always get better.Related: There is a new form of climate denialism to look out for – so don't celebrate yet | Naomi Oreskes Continue reading...

Buoyant data confounds business group warnings but analysts fear November sales rise may come at the expense of the traditional Christmas splurgeBlack Friday discounts helped drive a surprise jump in UK retail sales last month, as shoppers splashed out online and in department stores.Official figures showed retail sales volumes were up 1.7% from the month before, beating forecasts for growth of 0.5% in a Reuters poll of economists. On the year, sales volumes were up 5%, defying the 3% growth forecast.Related: Black Friday: five lessons for UK retailers Continue reading...

Analysts say Christmas has come early for stock markets after Fed chair Janet Yellen’s vow to raise interest rates only graduallyGlobal stock markets cheered the US Federal Reserve’s decision to increase interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade.In London, the FTSE 100 index jumped nearly 100 points in the first minute of trading, rising 1.6% to 6,158, with all stocks making gains. It is still down 6% this year, however, and down 3% this month.Related: Fed interest rate hike: shares surge as markets celebrate - business live Continue reading...

The first US rate rise since 2006 has stoked confidence in world markets despite concerns about the longer term impact of a strong US dollarGovernments and central bankers across Asia Pacific have breathed a collective sigh of relief after stock markets rallied rather than recoiled at the US Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates.Related: Federal Reserve ends Hamlet-like indecision over interest rates Continue reading...

Businesses and consumers will pay heavy price if UK forced to trade by WTO rules and not free trade agreement, says Lord RoseBritain would be landed with £11bn in new tariffs if it left the EU and did not get a free trade agreement, according to the leader of the group campaigning to stay in. Lord Rose, who heads Britain Stronger in Europe, published research suggesting that the UK would have to begin trading with the EU using World Trade Organisation rules, which would cost businesses and consumers more.Speaking as David Cameron heads to Brussels for two days of talks on Britain’s future in the EU, the businessman said that the campaigns arguing that Britain should leave the EU are proposing a specific deal: ending all budget contributions, ending free movement and repatriating economic regulations while retaining full access to the single market.Related: David Cameron faces compromise over plans for EU migrants' welfare access Continue reading...

The Federal Reserve has increased interest rates by 0.25%, a historic moment after years of record lows

Interested parties form queue after bank’s £1.5bn attempt to form separate entity and float on stock market stallsWhat a carry on. Half a decade ago, Santander was set to buy the 307 branches that Royal Bank of Scotland must sell to comply with the EU-imposed terms of its taxpayer-funded 2008 bailout. By 2012, the Spanish bank thought the process was taking too long and pulled out.The following year, RBS cooked up a complicated plan to bring in private equity partners, plus an investment wing of the Church of England, to speed up the branches’ progress towards a stock market flotation. The chancellor, George Osborne, spoke fondly of how this new “challenger” bank, to be rebadged as Williams & Glyn, would give a leg-up to competition and diversity in UK banking. Continue reading...

Quarter-point increase in borrowing costs signals gradual end to zero interest rate policy that has been in force for past seven yearsIt has been a long time coming – more than nine years in fact. The last time the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, Tony Blair was prime minister of Britain, George Bush was US president and the iPhone was still a year away from hitting the shops.The quarter-point increase in borrowing costs could hardly be called a spur of the moment decision. On the contrary, the Fed has shown Hamlet-like indecision this year as it has weighed up the pros and cons of abandoning the zero interest rate policy that has been in force for the past seven years.Related: Federal Reserve announces first rise in US interest rates since 2006Related: Interest rates rise: what does the Fed decision mean for you? Continue reading...

US central bank signals end to seven years of a monetary policy that began amid the worst financial crisis since the Great DepressionThe Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday, ending an extraordinary period of government intervention in the financial markets that started at the height of the recession.After holding its benchmark federal-funds rate near zero for seven years, the Fed increased rates a quarter-percentage point. The move signals the end of a monetary policy that began amid the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.Related: Federal Reserve hikes interest rates seven years after financial crisis – business liveRelated: Interest rates rise: what does the Fed decision mean for you? Continue reading...

Chair of Commons Treasury select committee has written to George Osborne to ask for assurance on £13bn sale of Northern Rock loansConcerns that 125,000 former Northern Rock borrowers might be adversely affected by the sale of their loans to a US private equity group have prompted an influential parliamentarian to seek assurances from the Treasury.Andrew Tyrie, a Conservative MP and the chair of the Commons Treasury select committee, has written a letter in relation to George Osborne’s announcement of the £13bn sale of mortgages and unsecured loans to Cerberus, the largest ever financial asset sale by a European government.Related: Northern Rock mortgages worth £13bn sold to US private equity firm Continue reading...

With workers cheap and easy to obtain, unemployment can come continue to come down without pay inflation picking upThere are more people in work than ever before. The jobless rate is at its lowest since 2006 – the last boom year before the financial markets went haywire. Clearly, the Bank of England should be gearing up to join the Federal Reserve in a coordinated increase in interest rates.Related: UK jobs data: pay growth slows to 2% Continue reading...

Pay rises have remained low, despite the unemployment rate falling to 5.2%, the lowest since 2006Wage growth across the economy has slowed to 2% despite continued strength in job creation, underlining the financial challenges facing Britain’s workers in the run-up to Christmas.The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that average wages grew at an annual rate of 2% in the three months to October.Related: Why hasn't pay kept pace with rising employment? Continue reading...