The IFS and Resolution Foundation thinktanks say the chancellor’s welfare overhaul will leave many families worse off. Do the government’s claims add up?Here is what George Osborne said when he was interviewed on the BBC Radio 4’s Today programme on Monday morning: “The typical family with someone working full-time on the minimum wage will be better off, not just a little bit better off but £2,000 a year better off, if you include the lower taxes we are providing through the personal allowance; the childcare for three and four-year-olds. That family is supported.” He also said nine in 10 families would be better off once the whole budget was considered. Continue reading...

UK PMI surveys signal weakest economic growth for 2.5 years as fragility spreads to service sectorBritain’s economy is losing momentum, knocked by weaker household spending and worries about the global outlook, according to the latest in a string of downbeat business surveys.Business activity grew at the slowest pace for more than two years in Britain’s dominant services sector last month, according to the closely watched Markit CIPS PMI report.Related: Bosses of UK's top firms report rising uncertainty over global economyRelated: Growth fears as UK and eurozone service sectors slow - live updates Continue reading...

Nothing is being shared when you hire a cleaner to tidy your house or a car to drive you to work, even if you use an app to do itThe “sharing economy” is a meaningless term that was only coined in the first place because of the tech industry’s desire to pretend everything it does is new and groundbreaking.Now, almost a decade after it started seeing use, it’s worse than simply being meaningless: it’s actively obfuscatory, lumping together a hugely disparate bunch of companies, many of which push the definition to its limits, and the biggest examples of which have nothing to do with “sharing” at all. Continue reading...

Despite a compromise on the length of drug monopolies, a last-minute hitch over New Zealand’s demands for access to dairy markets delayed an agreementA dozen Pacific countries have closed in on a sweeping free trade pact after a breakthrough over how long a monopoly pharmaceutical companies should be given on new biotech drugs.

Poll of chief financial officers finds many are trimming investment and hiring plans due to Chinese downturn and possible interest rate riseChina’s downturn, the prospect of rising interest rates and uncertainty about the global economic outlook have knocked confidence among bosses of the UK’s biggest companies, according to a survey.Chief financial officers (CFOs) polled by the consultancy Deloitte reported a sharp rise in uncertainty facing their businesses and have scaled back their expectations for investment and hiring over the coming year.Related: How China's economic slowdown could weigh on the rest of the world Continue reading...

Why do those who seem happy enough with quantitative easing recoil if it’s for social investment? Jeremy Corbyn’s idea of people’s QE is not so dangerousIn its broadest sense, the phrase “there’s no magic money tree” is just a variation on “money doesn’t grow on trees”, a thing you say to children to indicate that wealth comes not from the beneficence of a magical universe, but from hard graft in a corporeal reality. The pedantic child might point to the discrepant amounts of work required to yield a given amount of money, and say that its value is a social construction.Over time, that loose, rather weak-minded meaning has ceded to a specific economic critique; Jeremy Corbyn – along with anyone who challenges the prevailing fiscal narrative – is dangerous and wrong, since he wants to print money. Money cannot be created from nowhere, because there’s no magic money tree. End of.Related: Corbyn's QE for the people jeopardises the Bank of England's independenceRelated: Jeremy Corbyn has the vision, but his numbers don’t yet add up | Larry Elliott Continue reading...

Despite plans to create a ‘northern powerhouse’, CEBR predicts that the north-south divide will widen over the next decade without more political actionThe economic gap between London and other major cities will widen significantly in the next 10 years, undermining the chancellor’s push to create a “northern powerhouse”, according to a report.London’s economy is forecast to grow 27% by 2025 – almost twice the combined rate of growth in northern English cities, the report by law firm Irwin Mitchell and the Centre for Economics & Business Research (CEBR) found. Continue reading...

The politician’s review of government economic policy during his years in the coalition is lucid, intelligent – and damningThis is the sequel to Vince Cable’s widely praised account of the events surrounding the great crash of 2008. It is a lucid, erudite analysis of the global economy, and Britain’s place in it, in the five years between 2010 and 2015, as viewed from the vantage point of someone who was a senior member of the coalition.It is emphatically not a memoir, although he does offer insights into the tensions between the coalition partners. There are references to “ideologically driven spending cuts”. George Osborne is said to possess “a ruthless eye for party advantage” and Cable nails the lie so assiduously peddled, not only by the Tories but by some of his Liberal Democrat colleagues, that the crisis of 2008 was caused by Labour mismanagement of the public finances: “…not true”, he says. Continue reading...

George Osborne’s kowtowing to China has landed him on weak ground when it comes to opposing Jeremy Corbyn’s rail policyWhile the Conservatives and many members of the media go on and on about the putative need for Labour to apologise for the deficit that was caused not by Gordon Brown but by the banking crisis, an apology has come from an unexpected quarter.In a recent interview with Margaret Thatcher’s biographer, Charles Moore, for the Policy Institute at King’s College, London, the man who ran Thatcher’s press office for 11 years, my old friend Sir Bernard Ingham, said about Thatcherism: “I’m sorry, desperately sorry, that so many people had to suffer the consequences.” Now, it is true that this admission was made in the context of Ingham’s claim that those years he worked for her “produced very substantial improvement in the country” – a debatable point – but it is interesting that he made the apology. He also had the good grace to add: “I wish some privatisation had been carried out better [sic].” I’ll say! Continue reading...

Trade minister says deal is close without revealing whether Australia is standing firm on five-year cap on biologics drug patents against US push for eight yearsThe trade minister, Andrew Robb, has said Australia and the United States are within striking distance of a deal on the monopoly period for biologics medicines which could seal the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP).Robb was speaking in Atlanta at the current round of negotiations for the TPP, which if signed would create a preferential trade zone between 12 countries covering 40% of the world’s economy.

But the head of the European Parliament, who is a German Social Democrat, said Europe’s biggest carmaker was still likely to survive the crisisThe head of the European Parliament has said the emissions scandal at Volkswagen would hit the German economy hard but Europe’s biggest carmaker was likely to survive the crisis.Germany’s finance and economy ministers have played down the risk of a broader economic danger for Germany from the scandal.Related: VW emissions scandal is a one-off incident, says motor industry bossRelated: The Volkswagen emissions scandal explained Continue reading...

Labour department’s lower than expected September jobs data reveals 64,000 fewer jobs than forecast, making a rate rise by Federal Reserve less likely

Fewer jobs were created than expected in America last month, more people quit the labor force, and wage growth was disappointing

Killing sprees have occurred almost every day in the US since 2013, but public opinion has still turned against gun controlMass shootings occur almost once a day in the US, yet protecting gun rights seems to concern Americans more than increasing controls on guns.On Thursday, a gunman killed nine people in a community college in Oregon. It was the 994th gun incident in which there were four or more victims (including the shooter) since the start of 2013, according to the website Mass Shooting Tracker. Continue reading...

Companies created jobs for the 28th month running and in September they hired new staff at the fastest pace for three monthsA big pick-up in housebuilding helped the UK’s construction sector enjoy its fastest growth for seven months in September and boosted job creation, according to a survey.All parts of the industry from civil engineering to housebuilders saw output rise in September. That lifted the key measure of business activity for the whole construction sector to 59.9 from 57.3 in August, the latest Markit/CIPS UK construction PMI showed. Continue reading...

Has capitalism had its day? At a Guardian Live/Discuss debate in Manchester, Guardian Members listened to two opposing arguments before voting for or against the motion - the markets will save usThe late Nobel prize-winning economist, Milton Friedman, once described free-market capitalism as “the most effective system we have discovered to enable people who hate one another to deal with one another and help one another”. Yet since the 2008 financial crash, this understanding has come in for intense criticism from those who believe that unregulated markets are the cause of - rather than the solution to - many of society’s problems.

The CBI and EEF sceptical about government plan to create 3m apprenticeships in five years, fearing high cost to business and low quality of trainingThe government’s plan to charge a new levy on businesses to help reach ambitious apprenticeship targets is facing resistance from big employer groups who warn ministers not to sacrifice quality of training.Chancellor George Osborne announced the levy in his summer budget as a key part of his bid to show he was on the side of working people. The government has pitched it to business as a way to end years of under-investment in training and solve skills shortages with 3m new apprenticeships by 2020.Related: Apprenticeships: it's quality, not numbers that matterRelated: Cameron pledges to create 50,000 new apprenticeships using Libor fine Continue reading...

Sector growth slows in September, prompting manufacturers to lay off workers, against backdrop of uncertain global outlookTough export markets and weaker consumer spending continued to take their toll on UK factories last month, prompting the first job losses for the sector in more than two years, according to a survey that echoed signs of manufacturing weakness around the world.The performance at UK factories was lacklustre in September, when growth slipped to a three-month low. Against the backdrop of warnings about the uncertain outlook for global growth, eurozone manufacturing also lost momentum and output from Chinese factories continued to fall. Continue reading...

Finance institute forecasts net capital outflow from emerging markets for first time since 1988 leaving states vulnerable to ‘capital drought’Global investors will suck capital out of emerging economies this year for the first time since 1988, as they brace themselves for a Chinese crash, according to the Institute of International Finance.Capital flooded into promising emerging economies in the years that followed the global financial crisis of 2008-09, as investors bet that rapid expansion in countries such as Turkey and Brazil could help to offset stodgy growth in the debt-burdened US, Europe and Japan.Related: IMF's emerging markets warning is timely Continue reading...

All the latest economic and financial news, as China’s factory output falls at its fastest pace in six years and British firms trim workforces

Although the oil price has fallen as instability has risen across the Middle East it doesn’t mean the region is less strategically important. The west ignores the region at its perilAmong today’s geopolitical risks, none is greater than the long arc of instability stretching from the Maghreb to the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. With the Arab Spring an increasingly distant memory, the instability along this arc is deepening. Indeed, of the three initial Arab spring countries, Libya has become a failed state, Egypt has returned to authoritarian rule, and Tunisia is being economically and politically destabilised by terrorist attacks.The violence and instability of North Africa is now spreading into sub-Saharan Africa, with the Sahel – one of the world’s poorest and most environmentally damaged regions – now gripped by jihadism, which is also seeping into the Horn of Africa to its east. And, as in Libya, civil wars are raging in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Somalia, all of which increasingly look like failed states.Related: The Opec oil price still matters (just not as much as before) Continue reading...

Study predicts that raising statutory pay floor will lead to sharp increase in proportion of people whose wages are set by the stateThe number of employees earning the minimum wage will double to more than 10% of the UK workforce by the end of this parliament, according to new research.A study published on Thursday by the Resolution Foundation, timed to coincide withthe 20p an hour increase in the minimum wage, found that the decision by George Osborne to lift the statutory pay floor through a national living wage would result in a sharp increase in the numbers of people having their wages set by the state.Related: Tory welfare cuts will destroy benefit of new living wage, research shows Continue reading...

For Corbyn, opposition to Trident is a key issue but to his critics it is a reminder of how out of step Labour’s pacifist leader George Lansbury was in the 1930sIt was a tale of two conferences over a week in which the dazzling Brighton sunshine of an Indian summer shone equally on all the delegates.To supporters of Jeremy Corbyn, their Labour conference marked the start of a healing process within the party as MPs from other camps watched the new leader begin to explain his values to the nation.Related: Labour split on defence grows as Eagle criticises Corbyn over TridentRelated: A Labour conference for activists – while Corbyn works out what to do Continue reading...

Prospect of US interest rates hike and weakness in China contributing to uncertainty and higher market volatility, says Christine LagardeA marked slowdown in big emerging market countries will cut global growth to its lowest level since the deep recession of 2009, the head of the International Monetary Fund has warned.Christine Lagarde, the IMF’s managing director, said forecasts to be published by her organisation next week would show activity expanded by less than the 3.4% recorded in 2014 – the joint weakest since the world economy came to a standstill six years ago.Related: IMF chief warns of slower growth after China shockwavesRelated: IMF: China slowdown could keep global interest rates low Continue reading...

UK growth was weaker than previously believed in 2010, but stronger in the three years that followed, the ONS has saidCast your mind back to early 2013. The economy’s recovery from the deep recession of 2008-09 had stalled for a second time and there was much speculation that Britain was on the brink of a triple-dip recession.It now turns out that the economy was under no such threat. The latest data revisions from the Office for National Statistics show that growth was weaker than previously thought in 2010, but stronger by an average 0.4 percentage points in each of the next three years. There was no double-dip recession, let alone a third setback. Continue reading...

An estimated $11tn wiped off value of world shares amid growing concerns over China’s flagging economyGlobal markets have suffered their worst quarterly performance since the depths of the eurozone crisis in 2011, with an estimated $11tn (£7tn) wiped off the value of world shares, despite an attempted rebound on the last day of September.After a summer of wild swings, sparked by growing fears of a slowdown in China, leading shares have slumped from the record highs of a few months earlier, and recorded their second quarterly decline in a row. Continue reading...

Negative inflation brought on by cheaper energy prices puts pressure on European Central Bank to boost stimulus programmeA slump in oil prices pushed eurozone inflation below zero this month, according to figures from Eurostat, the statistical office of the EU.Prices fell across the currency bloc by 0.1% year-on-year in September, putting pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to beef up the €60bn a month stimulus programme begun earlier this year. Continue reading...

ONS data shows real household disposable income rose at annual rate of 3.7% in second quarter of this yearPressure is mounting on the Bank of England to raise interest rates after official figures showed household disposable incomes – a key measure of living standards – rising at their fastest rate in five years.Figures from the Office for National Statistics showed that real household disposable income, which measures spending power after inflation, tax and state benefits have been taken into account, rose at an annual rate of 3.7% in the second quarter of 2015. Continue reading...

Despite a strong bounce back on the stock market after Tuesday’s heavy losses, Australia must adjust to the slowdown in China, rating agency warnsAustralia is the “clear loser” from China’s economic slowdown, according to a leading credit rating agency.Despite a strong recovery by the Australian stock market after Tuesday’s heavy losses, Standard & Poor’s says China’s trading partners must adjust to the Asian giant’s slowing economy with commodity suppliers such as Australia hardest hit.Related: Glencore should have prepared better for China slowdownRelated: Canada and Australia feel the squeeze in wake of Chinese economic slowdown Continue reading...

World Economic Form says the UK’s weakness include the budget deficit and the quality of its education systemBritain has slipped to 10th in an influential global competitiveness index after being overtaken by Sweden.The World Economic Forum thinktank, which hosts the gathering of business and political leaders in the Swiss ski resort of Davos each January, said that Britain has slipped one place to rank as the 10th most competitive economy in the world, with Switzerland and Singapore topping the table. Continue reading...

Bank of England governor tells Lloyd’s insurers that ‘challenges currently posed by climate change pale in significance compared with what might come’Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, has warned that climate change will lead to financial crises and falling living standards unless the world’s leading countries do more to ensure that their companies come clean about their current and future carbon emissions.In a speech to the insurance market Lloyd’s of London on Tuesday, Carney said insurers were heavily exposed to climate change risks and that time was running out to deal with global warming. Continue reading...

Fund says governments in emerging markets should prepare now for a new credit crunch because of a 10-year corporate borrowing binge

Austerity has pitted the old and young against each other in the competition for housing, education and care. But in reality, we 99% are in it togetherThe concept of divide and rule has been an effective tool of governance since ancient times. This is what came to mind as I sat in a break-out session entitled “Tackling the challenges faced by older women” at this year’s Labour women’s conference. The fact is that the struggles those of us on the left hold dear – tackling inequalities in health, education, income and housing – are a worry for us all, young and old, working- and middle-class, black or white. We will have to bust the myths that pit us against each other when, in truth, we share a common enemy – the 1% and a government that is happy to brazenly transfer public wealth into private hands.Related: The Guardian view on the generation gap: youth clubbed | EditorialThe over-55s are not a homogeneous blob of the financially secure and comfortable Continue reading...

An interest rate increase from the US Federal Reserve is a likely catalyst for the crisis in emerging markets the International Monetary Fund clearly fearsThe world has turned full circle. In the early 1990s, the slow-burn financial crisis that came to a climax in 2008 had its origins in the developing world. From Mexico in 1994 to Thailand in 1997 the story was the same: hot money from abroad; asset price booms; overvalued currencies; burst bubbles; hot money rushing for the exit.Eventually, the malaise wormed its way from the periphery of the global economy to its core: the developed markets of north America and western Europe. Now the focus of the International Monetary Fund is back on the risks presented by the emerging world.Related: IMF warns of new financial crisis if interest rates rise Continue reading...

Net financial assets exceed €100tn for first time and remain concentrated in world’s richest regionsThe financial assets of private households have reached a record €135.7tn (£100.3tn), enough to settle the planet’s sovereign debt and still have two-thirds of the total left over, according to Allianz’s Global wealth report for 2015.Debts owed by private households increased by 4.3% on 2013 to total €35.2tn last year, which means that net financial assets (gross assets minus debt) have topped €100tn for the first time. Continue reading...

CBI survey reports best business conditions since before 2007 financial crisis, as low inflation and wage growth stimulate consumer demandBritish retailers are reporting the best business conditions since before the financial crisis erupted in 2007 as low inflation and rising wages prompt a surge in consumer spending.The CBI said in its monthly snapshot of the distributive trades that high street and online sales volumes were well above normal for the time of year, with food and clothes outlets notching up particularly strong performances. Continue reading...

Labour’s real battle will be to challenge the same undead orthodoxies it failed to kill off after the financial crash of 2008 – and the elite consensus that keeps them in placeOver and over again during the Labour conference this week we will hear a big lie. It will be lathered on during news bulletins and discussions live from Brighton, daubed across countless newspaper columns. Rather than obviously sounding like an untruth, it will be expressed in a hundred shop-worn homilies and tatters of second-hand advice. That Jeremy Corbyn, we’ll hear, he must get slicker at presentation. This John McDonnell, he needs to convince taxpayers of his trustworthiness.Related: John McDonnell offers different economic tack without sounding scaryThe certainties that had underpinned Britain’s economic model lay shattered and no one knew what would happen nextIn a catastrophe instigated by financiers, the experts brought on to discuss what should be done were financiers Continue reading...

Wall Street losses drag down Tokyo and Shanghai indexes with Asia-Pacific markets at lowest level since June 2012Deepening concern over the health of the Chinese economy has again struck Asian markets, with shares in the region plummeting to their lowest level for three-and-a-half years, after weak Chinese data prompted sharp losses on Wall Street.The Nikkei 225 ended Tuesday down 714.27 points, or 4.05%, from Monday at 16,930.84 – its lowest level for about eight months. Continue reading...

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 313 points (1.9%) to 16,002 points Monday, following losses on other markets across the worldUS stock markets fells significantly on Monday due to renewed concerns about the health of the Chinese economy.The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 313 points (1.9%) to 16,002 points, following losses on other markets across the world. Continue reading...

Commodity trader and miner Glencore slumps as analysts warn its shareholders could be wiped out

Shadow chancellor John McDonnell lays out plans to cut deficit by targeting corporate tax avoidance and increasing taxes on rich

Despite global slowdown that has impacted manufacturers, spending rises 0.4% for second straight month as employment gains solidify upward trendConsumer spending rose at a healthy rate in the US in August, while income growth slowed after a big jump in July.Consumer spending advanced 0.4% compared to July, when spending also increased by 0.4%, the Commerce Department said Monday. In both months, the figures reflected strong gains in purchases of durable goods such as autos. Continue reading...

The shadow chancellor took clear aim at the Tories, big business and austerity in his Labour conference speech, but what were his other messages? Continue reading...