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Updated 2025-07-02 22:15
Forget the economic gloom – Gideon is in charge!
Chancellor George Osborne is very pleased with himself at Treasury Questions – everyone’s a winner in his fantasy Britain. Apart from the losers, of courseParallel worlds, parallel lives. Where most of the UK sees a decline in manufacturing, lay-offs in the steel industry and widespread insecurity about the global economy, George Osborne sees only sunlit uplands, smiling faces and Hovis adverts. Yesterday belongs to him and we are so lucky to have him.“The redundancies at Tata Steel are deeply regrettable,” the chancellor said at Treasury questions, in a voice that expressed more a sense of acceptable collateral damage than regret. “But … ” But George was in charge. A force for good and a force for change. While lesser mortals prepared to quake and quail at the World Economic Forum in Davos, the Übermensch knew no fear. Everything he touched turned to gold.Related: Who doesn't want to see Jeremy Corbyn elected? It would be a glorious six-day reign | Frankie Boyle Continue reading...
Davos 2016: worries mount for world's business leaders
PwC survey finds that two-thirds of chief executives see more threats facing their businesses than three years agoThe falling price of oil, the slowing Chinese economy and the risks of terrorist attacks are conspiring to make the chief executives of major companies around the world more concerned about the prospects for economic growth.Related: The Guardian view on the global economy: China sends a shiver through Davos | EditorialRelated: Davos 2016: eight key themes for the World Economic ForumRelated: IMF cuts global growth forecasts Continue reading...
Oil market could drown in oversupply in 2016, says IEA
International Energy Agency predicts increase in supply after lifting of sanctions against Iran, pushing prices down furtherThe world could find itself drowning in oil this year and prices could fall further as new Iranian output cancels out production cuts elsewhere, according to the International Energy Agency.An increase in supply and weakening demand growth will ensure there is an overabundance of oil until late 2016 at the earliest, the IEA said in its January report. It said the result would be the third successive year when supply exceeded demand by 1m barrels a day, and the system would struggle to cope.Related: IMF cuts global growth forecasts Continue reading...
Pound dives as Bank of England rules out rate rise amid weak UK growth
Currency traders react to Mark Carney’s downbeat assessment by selling pound to $1.42, its weakest since March 2009The Bank of England governor has sent the pound into a nosedive after he ruled out an early rise in interest rates, saying UK growth was still too weak and pointing to recent turmoil in the global financial markets.Speaking in London as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its forecast for global growth this year, Mark Carney said the UK faced “a powerful set of forces” that prevented policymakers from raising rates. “The world is weaker and UK growth has slowed,” he added.Related: No set timetable for rate rise, says Carney, as UK inflation hits 11-month high - liveRelated: IMF cuts global growth forecasts Continue reading...
Bank of England governor Mark Carney rules out interest rate rise – video
In a speech at Queen Mary University of London on Tuesday, the Bank of England governor, Mark Carney, says there’s no reason to raise interest rates from their record low of 0.5%, given a collapse in oil prices, volatility in China and weak UK growth. Photograph: Frank Augstein/Getty Images
Interest rates: Mark Carney is right to remain cautious
A rate rise in the second half of 2016 is becoming a more remote possibility by the monthMark Carney is halfway through his five-year term as governor of the Bank of England. Judging by his latest remarks on the state of the economy, he could go back to Canada in the summer of 2018 and still not have raised interest rates.
What's next for the world? Share your views
The Guardian is looking at the future of international news, and examining the issues that will shape our world over the next five years
China's GDP figures 'herald a very severe slowdown', says analyst - video
GDP figures showing China’s economy grew at 6.8 percent in the final quarter of 2015 indicate a worrying downward trend, says an analyst on Tuesday. ‘It does herald a very severe slowdown in the Chinese economy’, said Enzio Von Pfeil, an investment strategist at Private Capital Limited in Hong Kong. Photograph: Reuters/Bobby Yip
IMF cuts global growth forecasts
Latest World Economic Outlook report cuts growth by 0.2% in 2016 and 2017 and calls on states to step up public investment or risk derailing recoveryThe International Monetary Fund has added to concerns about the health of the global economy by cutting its growth forecasts for the next two years and warning that recovery from the financial crisis could be derailed altogether if key challenges are mishandled.The Washington-based body said world output would be 0.2 points lower in 2016 and 2017 compared with forecasts made just three months ago – and that the risks to its predictions were to the downside.
China economy grows at slowest pace in 25 years, latest GDP figures show
World’s second-largest economy posts figures that add to fears of a slowdown that will affect financial markets across the worldChina’s economy grew at its slowest rate in a quarter of a century in 2015, data released on Tuesday showed, increasing pressure on Beijing to address fears of a prolonged slowdown and ease the jitters affecting global markets.The full-year growth of 6.9% was only just short of government expectations of 7% but by contrast, growth in 2014 stood at 7.3%.Related: Why are we looking on helplessly as markets crash all over the world? | Will HuttonRelated: China sees 'many challenges' in 2016 as trade slumps on weak external demandRelated: Australian consumer confidence falls again amid Chinese economy worries Continue reading...
China's growth problem – six analysts give their reaction
The business world has been awash with fears for China’s economy for some time, but what do Tuesday’s economic figures really show?
Stocks turmoil: FTSE 100 hits three-year low after oil falls through $28 - as it happened
All the latest economic and financial news, as world markets continue to gyrate amid fears over China’s economy
Ultra-low interest rates could be here to stay, says Bank of England adviser
Monetary policy committee member Gertjan Vlieghe says debt, demographics and distribution of income could all depress interest rates for years to comeThe prospect of ultra-low interest rates persisting for years to come has been conjured up by a leading Bank of England policymaker after a further fall in oil prices and shares in London sinking to their lowest level since late 2012.Gertjan Vlieghe, one of the nine members of Threadneedle Street’s monetary policy committee, the body that sets the official cost of borrowing, said debt, demographics and distribution of income could all depress interest rates.
Iran vice-president hails new era after removal of sanctions
Masoumeh Ebtekar tells the Guardian that success of nuclear talks raises hopes for peaceful resolution to Syria conflict, but warns of rival forces stoking ‘Iranophobia’The lifting of sanctions on Iran on Saturday marks a new era in bilateral relations between Tehran and Washington, one of the country’s vice-presidents has said, adding that further rapprochement is contingent on how the US goes about fulfilling its commitments under last summer’s nuclear accord.In an interview with the Guardian, Masoumeh Ebtekar warned against what she said were new attempts in the region to create a sense of “Iranophobia”, though she did not single out by name Tehran’s regional rival, Saudi Arabia. Continue reading...
Oxfam: report shows 62 billionaires are as wealthy as half of world population - video
Nick Bryer, Oxfam’s head of UK policy, discusses a report published on Monday by the charity that shows that 62 billionaires are as wealthy as the poorest half of the world’s population put together, 3.6 billion people. He says that worldwide the richest 1% own more than the other 99% put together
How to boost British productivity and save the NHS all at once
Unipart boss John Neill reckons he has the answer to the UK’s industrial doldrums. So he’s off to Davos to tell everyone, George Osborne includedAs George Osborne heads down to breakfast in Davos this week, he should brace himself for a lecture along with his muesli.John Neill, the businessman who spread the Japanese concept of “lean manufacturing” around Britain, wants a word with the chancellor about the UK’s woeful productivity record. He is on a mission to change the way Britain works, from restaurants to the NHS, and plans to corner Osborne when they are both at the World Economic Forum.Related: Global economic turmoil to dominate Davos discussionsRelated: Inside the Bank of England | Jill Treanor and Larry ElliottRelated: This is the NHS: live from the frontline at St George's hospital in south London Continue reading...
Big banks still have a problem with ethics and morality
The biggest compliment you can get in the City is ‘professional’. It means you do not let emotions get in the way of work, let alone moralsAmid all the misunderstandings about global finance, the idea that bankers are a bunch of coke-snorting evildoers on the model of Gordon Gekko or the Wolf of Wall Street is probably the most widespread. It is also largely wrong. Worse: this stereotype stops us from seeing the real issue in finance and the publicly listed corporate world generally.When interviewing around 200 bankers and banking staff about finance and morality in the City of London for the Guardian, I was struck by the language they used. Not so much the profanities, though there were many, nor the technical stuff and the three-letter acronyms (TLAs). Most striking were terms that seemed designed to sidestep any possibility of an ethical discussion. When talking of their bank’s use of loopholes in the tax code to help big corporations and rich families evade taxes, bankers used words such as “tax optimisation” or “tax-efficient structures”.Related: Michael Lewis: the scourge of Wall StreetIn most conversations the word ‘ethic’ came up only in combination with ‘work’Related: Why working fewer hours would make us more productive Continue reading...
Richest 62 people as wealthy as half of world's population, says Oxfam
Charity says only higher wages, crackdown on tax dodging and higher investment in public services can stop divide wideningThe vast and growing gap between rich and poor has been laid bare in a new Oxfam report showing that the 62 richest billionaires own as much wealth as the poorer half of the world’s population.Timed to coincide with this week’s gathering of many of the super-rich at the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, the report calls for urgent action to deal with a trend showing that 1% of people own more wealth than the other 99% combined.Related: Number of female billionaires increases sevenfold in 20 yearsRelated: Givers that keep on giving: the world's top philanthropists Continue reading...
Women to lose out in technology revolution as robotics threatens jobs, warns WEF
Survey on future of working life predicts white collar and administrative roles to see the greatest job lossesMore than 7m jobs are at risk in the world’s largest economies over the next five years as technological advances in fields such as robotics and 3D printing transform the world of work.According to a report into the impact of the so-called ”fourth industrial revolution”, women will lose out in the workplace as they are less likely to be working in areas where the adoption of new technology will create jobs.Related: Robots rub up with Davos delegates Continue reading...
The next financial crash is coming. Which way will the world turn? | Damian McBride
I used to think a rerun of 2008 would undoubtedly benefit the anti-capitalist left. Now I’m not so sureFive months ago this week, I invited some good-natured mockery by warning people that the only way to survive the looming economic crisis was to take a large notepad and go and watch The Revenant. We’d all be living in the wilderness soon enough, so it was time to learn how.Well I didn’t go quite that far, but I did state my profound belief that this crash would be much worse than the 2008 banking crisis, and – given how close we came to the collapse of the financial system then – it’s a reasonable fear that we won’t get so lucky twice.Related: George Osborne warns UK economy faces 'cocktail of threats'Related: George Osborne’s ‘cocktail of threats’ will leave us with a hangover | John McDonnell Continue reading...
Global economic turmoil to dominate Davos discussions
Business leaders and policymakers at the World Economic Forum will focus on Chinese downturn, a commodities rout and stock market turmoilThe fragility of the global economy will take centre-stage this week with the International Monetary Fund poised to warn of growing economic risks as business leaders and policymakers gather for the annual World Economic Forum in Davos.The IMF will update its forecasts for global growth on Tuesday and is widely expected to paint a bleaker picture for the year ahead amid the deepening Chinese downturn, a commodities rout and turmoil on global stock markets.Related: Why the falling oil price may not lead to boomGlobal markets off $3.83 trillion, including U.S. $1.87 trillion (S&P 500 $1.41T) and non-U.S off $1.95 trillion18 months ago a barrel of #oil bought you a bottle of Pol Roger 2004 champagne. Today it gets you Tesco Finest. pic.twitter.com/ROxaaTmW3HWe no longer expect #BankofEngland rate hike in May but we believe MPC may well act in Aug. Interest rates likely to end 2016 at just 0.75% Continue reading...
Oil price woes deepen as Iran vows to add 500,000 barrels a day
Iranian president hails end of sanctions as western economies and companies such as Airbus stand to benefitGlobal oil prices will remain under pressure this week after Iran said it was ready to add half a million barrels a day to crude exports just hours after international sanctions were lifted this weekend.Iran’s president, Hassan Rouhani, hailed a “glorious victory” as his country relished reconnecting to the global economy following the formal announcement late on Saturday that sanctions were ending thanks to moves by Tehran to scale back its nuclear programme.
Why the falling oil price may not lead to boom
An economic boom usually follows a big drop in the oil price but this time maybe different – indicative not of oversupply but weakness in demandThere was a time when Blue Monday meant a song by New Order. These days it is the third Monday in January, allegedly the most depressing day of the year.Whether there is any scientific basis for this claim is debatable, but for what it’s worth the argument is that people feel miserable because Christmas is over, the credit card bills are arriving, it’s dark when you go to work in the morning and it’s dark when you head home.Related: Janet Yellen and Fed left with face full of egg after interest rate rise blunder Continue reading...
Oil slump - the true cost of falling prices
Standard Chartered last week warned of oil at $10 a barrel. What impact would that have on North Sea oil, the consumer and the UK economy?Up to 65,000 jobs have already been lost from the British offshore oil industry since the cost of crude fell from a peak of $115 per barrel in June 2014 to its latest level of $30. A further decline to $10 would clearly turn a cull into a massacre, not least because the North Sea is a high-cost place to operate, with the break-even price for many fields around $60.Related: Saudi Aramco – the $10tn mystery at the heart of the Gulf stateRelated: Spend, spend, spend – it’s what the chancellor is praying for Continue reading...
Spend, spend, spend – it’s what the chancellor is praying for
Personal debt and the booming property market have become the main drivers of growth in Osborne’s economyGeorge Osborne has already put in place legislation to prevent future governments racking up more debt, but consumer borrowing? Well, that’s another matter. Consumers who spend all their wages and then a bit more on top are George Osborne’s best friend.Figures last week from the Finance & Leasing Association (FLA) documents a 17% surge in new consumer borrowing during the year to November 2015. The data covered credit cards, store cards, car loans and the dreaded second mortgage, which was so popular that the value of new loans jumped 31% during the year. Continue reading...
Davos delegates with heads in the clouds must tackle financial crisis on the ground
Since the last crisis, countless opportunities have been missed to clean up banking and address structural problems in the world economyWhen the big names from business, government and central banking meet over the champagne flutes in Davos this week, the official theme is “mastering the fourth industrial revolution”. The World Economic Forum has asked participants to chew over the rise of the robots and what it means for every aspect of human lives from jobs to the environment. No doubt their conversations will be fascinating.But while Davos delegates chat about hypotheticals between canapes, beyond the mountain resort some very real problems are playing out. Wild swings on stock markets, a plummeting oil price and patchy economic news frrom the world’s two biggest economies, China and the US, have raised the spectre of a fresh financial crisis. Continue reading...
Corbyn speaks to Fabians as Dugher says unilateralism will lead to 'electoral disaster' - Politics live
Rolling coverage of the Fabian conference in London, with Jeremy Corbyn’s keynote speech
Venezuela president declares economic emergency as inflation hits 141%
Nicolás Maduro wants broad powers to tackle the deep recession crippling the oil-dependent country but he faces a tough battle from the oppositionVenezuelan president Nicolás Maduro has declared an economic emergency, seeking broad powers to address a crippling recession in the oil-dependent country after official figures showed that inflation has spiralled to 141%.The vaguely worded decree would grant Maduro extraordinary powers for two months to rule on economic matters but must be approved by the National Assembly, now under control of the opposition, where he gave his state of the nation address late Friday.Related: Venezuela frees Pepsi workers it arrested for not making enough Pepsi Continue reading...
Aussie dollar falls to seven-year low amid falling oil prices
Analysts predict the dollar may fall further before recovering towards the end of 2016 while stocks also suffered renewed sellingThe Australian dollar has dropped to its lowest level in almost seven years in overnight trading, falling to US68.62c.Related: How Australian households became the most indebted in the worldRelated: Gold is the bright spot in commodities rout but 2016 forecasts are divided Continue reading...
US stock markets take a major fall as Dow reaches lowest level since August
Losses followed worldwide declines due to concerns about health of the Chinese economy and falling oil price and extend US markets’ worst ever start to the yearUS stock markets suffered further heavy losses on Friday with the Standard & Poor’s 500, the index of America’s biggest companies, falling 2.2% to 1,880 points – the lowest since August 2014.The losses, which follow declines across the world due to concerns about the health of the Chinese economy and the plunging price of oil, extend the US markets’ worst-ever start to the year. The Dow Jones, which fell by more than 500 points at one point before ending the day down 391 points to 15,988, has fallen by 8.24% so far in 2016. Continue reading...
Minimum wage-earners to 2016 candidates: 'Come get our vote'
Fight for 15 advocates want to make sure that when the Democratic presidential candidates debate on Sunday America’s low wages are discussedFast-food workers are flocking to Charleston, in an attempt to make sure that when the Democratic presidential candidates debate on Sunday, they do not forget about America’s low wages.Related: After Sanders criticism, Donald Trump flip-flops: US wages 'are too low'Related: Economy is resilient but Americans still need a raise, says US labor secretary Continue reading...
Janet Yellen and Fed left with face full of egg after interest rate rise blunder
Four weeks and one market meltdown later, US central bank’s decision to opt for early rate hike no longer looks so cleverTurn the clock back a month. It is the week before Christmas and the Federal Reserve has just raised interest rates for the first time in almost a decade.The mood in the markets is upbeat. A so-called Santa rally is in full swing. Dealers say the US central bank has played a blinder by keeping Wall Street sweet. If there were Oscars for central bankers, Janet Yellen would be picking up the golden statuette.Related: US stock markets take a major fall as Dow reaches lowest level since 2014 Continue reading...
High court judges to be given inflation-busting pay award
Rise of 3% considered necessary due to problems recruiting and retaining senior judges in BritainHigh court judges are to receive an inflation-busting 3% pay increase next year – well above the government’s own public sector pay recommendations – taking their annual salary to £183,328.The rise, proposed by the Ministry of Justice to the senior salaries review body, is said to be necessary because there are problems with recruitment and retention of senior judges.Related: Top judge says justice system is now unaffordable to most Continue reading...
UK construction industry suffers surprise drop in output
Output fell 0.5% in November, against expected rise of 0.5%, with ONS saying bad weather may have had impactBritain’s builders suffered an unexpected drop in output in November, signalling a faster slowdown in GDP growth during the final three months of 2015 than most City forecasts.Construction output fell 0.5% on a monthly basis in November, according to the Office for National Statistics, against expectations for a rise of 0.5% in a Reuters poll of economists.Related: UK housebuilding held up by lack of bricklayers, says report Continue reading...
Asia Pacific shares punished again amid weak China lending and fresh oil slump
Poor Chinese lending figures spark a sharp selloff on the country’s stock markets amid fears that monetary stimulus has not had the desired effectAsia Pacific stock markets have suffered another punishing day after continued falls in the price of oil and poor Chinese bank lending figures undermined confidence.Related: Gold is the bright spot in commodities rout but 2016 forecasts are divided Continue reading...
How Australian households became the most indebted in the world
The rapid rise of capital city house prices in the past two years has propelled Australia past Denmark with a ratio of 123.08% debt to GDP, analysis showsThe results are in: Australian households have more debt compared to the size of the country’s economy than any other in the world.Related: The latest job figures are promising – but can they last amid the economic gloom? | Greg Jericho Continue reading...
Stock markets buoyed by German recovery and US interest rate delay
Berlin recorded its fastest growth since the early days of the eurozone debt crisis, while oil prices rose marginally after Wednesday’s dip to below $30 a barrelA solid performance by the German economy and hints of a delay to the next US interest rate rise calmed nerves in London and New York after a week of panicked stock market trading that has left many investors counting huge losses.The Dow Jones index of leading US corporations climbed 225 points on Thursday while the FTSE 100 reversed a 130 loss in early trading to finish 42 points lower at 5918. Continue reading...
Bank of England keeps interest rates on hold
Monetary policy committee votes to retain record low rate of 0.5% amid global uncertainty and brittle UK recoveryThe Bank of England has kept interest rates on hold this month, noting volatility in global markets and highlighting a sharp fall in oil prices that is likely to keep inflation low.Members of the Bank’s nine-member monetary policy committee (MPC) voted eight to one to leave rates at 0.5%, where they have been since March 2009, in a repeat of recent votes. Sticking to his recent stance, only Ian McCafferty voted for a rise to 0.75%.Related: The Guardian view on the economic and environmental impact of falling oil prices | EditorialRelated: UK trade deficit prompts alarm as exports fall Continue reading...
Climate change disaster is biggest threat to global economy in 2016, say experts
Global warming heads top economists’ concerns for first time but large-scale forced migration seen as most likely risk to materialiseA catastrophe caused by climate change is seen as the biggest potential threat to the global economy in 2016, according to a survey of 750 experts conducted by the World Economic Forum.The annual assessment of risks conducted by the WEF before its annual meeting in Davos on 20-23 January showed that global warming had catapulted its way to the top of the list of concerns. Continue reading...
Oil and US share prices tumble over fears for global economy
S&P 500 suffers its worst day since September as new data showing American fuel stockpiles have hit record levels saw Brent crude fall to below $30 a barrelUS stocks fell heavily on Wednesday, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 falling 2.5% to take the index below 1,900 points for the first time since September, due to growing concerns about the falling oil price, which dipped below $30 a barrel for the first time in nearly 12 years.The S&P 500, which closed at 1,890 points, suffered its worst day since September and has fallen by 10% since its November peak taking it into “correction” territory, something that has not happened since August 2014.Related: China sees 'many challenges' in 2016 as trade slumps on weak external demandRelated: The perils of China's currency devaluation Continue reading...
America is finally waking up to its inequality problem
Under Obama, the economic recovery has bypassed almost all Americans. They won’t stay silent for ever – and Bernie Sanders could be their inspirationTo critique Barack Obama’s presidency is to be guilty of these cardinal sins: blasphemy, ingratitude and a lack of realism. What was once the nation of Jim Crow produced the first African-American president, the most liberal commander-in-chief since Richard Nixon (as Obama himself once put it). Funny, charming, with a coolness that eludes practically every other politician, he is the ultimate ambassador for US power. Could the United States possibly elect someone more progressive?Related: Why does Bernie Sanders continue to avoid a foreign policy platform? | Lucia GravesRelated: Bernie Sanders: free public college tuition is the 'right thing to do' Continue reading...
Spread of internet has not conquered 'digital divide' between rich and poor – report
Study by World Bank praises potential of technology to transform lives, but warns of risk of creating a ‘new underclass’ of the disconnectedThe rapid spread of the internet and mobile phones around the globe has failed to deliver the expected boost to jobs and growth, the World Bank has revealed in a report that highlights a growing digital divide between rich and poor.The Bank said no other technology has reached more people in so short a time as the internet, but warned that the development potential of technological change had yet to be reaped. Continue reading...
The Guardian view on the geopolitics of falling oil prices | Editorial
Some rue the get-rich-quick allure of oil in emerging nations. Whatever happens, the geopolitical consequences of falling prices are myriad and unpredictableIn the geopolitics of oil production, predictions are always risky. However important it may be, the price of crude is never the single factor driving events. That a global shakeup will occur if the spectacular tumble in prices persists is, however, a fairly safe bet. Witness how record highs and lows in oil have affected international relations and political developments over the last four decades.The oil shocks of the 1970s reshaped the global landscape and lent new significance to the Middle East. When prices collapsed in the mid-1980s, the Soviet Union’s final demise owed much to the collapse in its export revenues. Saddam Hussein’s 1990 invasion of Kuwait derived in part from an ambition to capture new lands at a time of financial stringency. In Algeria, another country dependent on oil revenues, that same price collapse – which reduced the price of crude to below $10 a barrel – contributed to an election victory for Islamists, then a coup, and then civil war. All of this makes it difficult to draw clearcut conclusions about strategic winners and losers. Of course, the liberal democracies of the west benefited from the end of the Soviet bloc, but it is hard to argue that low oil prices in the Arab and Muslim world led to much peace and stability.Related: The Guardian view on the economic and environmental impact of falling oil prices | Editorial Continue reading...
DiCaprio leads a star-studded cast for World Economic Forum in Davos
Other attendees will include John Kerry, Justin Trudeau, Will.i.am and Loretta Lynch, as well as the archbishop of Canterbury and representatives from UberA cast of politicians, digital pioneers, activists and Hollywood glitterati will gather in the Swiss ski resort of Davos next week for the annual World Economic Forum, which will take place against mounting fears of a new global crash.While the official theme of the five-day annual event is “the fourth industrial revolution” – a topic that will focus on the looming impact of robots and artificial intelligence – the real talking point for the 2,500 participants will be whether the violent gyrations in global financial markets since the turn of the year are evidence of trouble to come. Continue reading...
EU and US poised to lift Iranian sanctions this weekend
Reconnecting Tehran to the global economy set to have huge ramifications for the global economy, especially the oil marketThe European Union and US are expected to formally lift sanctions against Iran this weekend, dismantling an intricate network of punitive measures built up over nearly a decade and reconnecting Tehran to the global economy.
Oil slides as US crude stocks rise, taking shine off markets – as it happened
All the day’s financial news, as China defies pessimism by reporting a surprise rise in exports in December
Is RBS right to forecast doom and gloom for the global economy?
Royal Bank of Scotland economists say the global economy is in for a very gloomy year indeed. Here’s what five economists thinkRoyal Bank of Scotland has warned of a “cataclysmic year” for the global economy, triggered by a slowdown in China, as it urged investors to liquidate all assets apart from high-quality bonds. The Guardian asked several economists whether they agreed with the bank’s gloomy outlook.Related: Sell everything ahead of stock market crash, say RBS economistsThe message from RBS is one of panic, which I don’t think is justified by current events. I’m worried about the outlook for the global economy, but not yet panicked.Sure, the economic indicators point to things being not so good. For instance, a sharp slowdown in China is not good for the UK, the US or Europe, because it puts a drag on growth. In that sense the impact is significant. However, it is not a disaster.We do not dispute that China will have a hard landing. It is something we have been warning about since 2009 and certain about since 2012. It is heading for 2% GDP growth and possibly lower, not the published 7%.But most people, including RBS, are overestimating the impact of China on the rest of the world. It will have a negligible effect in terms of growth in the developed world. In terms of inflation, it will have profound consequences through lower commodity and oil prices. It will also harm UK and western manufactured exports as China’s goods become cheaper and ultimately force workers in industries that compete with China to accept lower wages.The start of the year has been characterised by growing fears about the global economy and an associated rise in risk aversion, despite very little in fact changing in terms of the hard economic data.All of the current concerns, from worries about China’s debt to higher US interest rates, the winding down of central bank largesse and collapsing commodity prices, have been nagging away over much of the past year. However, it seems that optimism that the global economy can weather these headwinds is finally giving way.If you look hard enough you can always find somebody telling you markets are about to crash, but they are normally wrong. Historically equities have been the best asset class over the long term – listening to the doom-mongers has been a mistake.Today’s disappointing industrial production figures suggest the [UK] economy slowed toward the end of 2015, and is still heavily reliant on consumer spending. However, growth is steady (if unspectacular), the labour market continues to show encouraging signs and interest rates look unlikely to rise any time soon.This is a scary warning from RBS but it doesn’t seem sensible to spook investors. As Keynes made clear consumer and business confidence matters – he called them animal spirits. Volatility is high but a great collapse doesn’t seem to be in the air. It doesn’t make sense to talk down markets as that can become self- fulfilling.The year started badly in stock markets around the world as China looked to be in free fall. Things look a little better now. The worry for the UK is that the government failed to fix the roof when the sun was shining over the last five years or so. Even the chancellor has pointed to a cocktail of risks in direct contrast to his position at the autumn statement in November. The concern is that the economy is at a turning point. We shall see. There are tough days ahead but there is no reason to panic. Not yet anyway. Continue reading...
IMF calls for carbon tax on ships and planes
Influential financial body estimates $30/tonne tax on emissions from international transport could have raised $25bn in 2014, reports Climate HomeThe International Monetary Fund is calling for a carbon tax on aviation and shipping to help deliver global climate goals.
The perils of China's currency devaluation
In pursuing its domestic objectives, China risks inadvertently amplifying global financial instabilityThe recent decline in China’s currency, the renminbi, which has fuelled turmoil in Chinese stock markets and drove the government to suspend trading twice last week, highlights a major challenge facing the country: how to balance its domestic and international economic obligations. The approach the authorities take will have a major impact on the wellbeing of the global economy.The 2008 global financial crisis, coupled with the disappointing recovery in the advanced economies that followed, injected a new urgency into China’s efforts to shift its growth model from one based on investment and external demand to one underpinned by domestic consumption. Navigating such a structural transition without causing a sharp decline in economic growth would be difficult for any country. The challenge is even greater for a country as large and complex as China, especially given today’s environment of sluggish global growth. Continue reading...
US solar industry now employs more workers than oil and gas, says report
Growth in the solar industry was not shared equally across all types of jobs in 2015 – employees of installation companies accounted for 65% of jobs addedThe US solar industry now employs more workers than oil and gas, a new report from the Solar Foundation claims, with most of the jobs in power panel installation.Last year, the US solar industry grew by 20% for a third year in a row, according to the foundation’s National Solar Job Census 2015. By the end of 2015, it employed nearly 209,000 solar workers, more than those employed in oil and gas extraction.Related: Oil price forecast to fall to $20 a barrel, predicts Morgan Stanley Continue reading...
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