NextBigFuture.com

Anthropic releases a Claude 3.7 Sonnet reasoning model and Claude Code an agentic model. These are their most intelligent models to date. Claude 3.7 Sonnet is a hybrid reasoning model, producing near-instant responses or extended, step-by-step thinking. Claude 3.7 was trained on real-world coding examples. Claude 3.5 has already been the best for real world ... Read more

An Epoch AI article identifies four primary barriers to scaling AI training: power, chip manufacturing, data, and latency. Below, we summarize the known research, innovations, and approaches that could mitigate or overcome these barriers, as well as discuss how AI scaling could continue beyond 2030 to 2040. 1. Power Constraints Training large AI models requires ... Read more

What happens if more domains of knowledge have superhuman performance from AI? The Elo (chess ranking estimate) of the best chess programs is about 3700 which is about 900 points beyond the 2881 maximum of Magnus Carlsen. This means Magnus might be able to get a draw in one out of 100 or 1000 games ... Read more

Elon Musk has posted that we are on the event horizon of the Singularity. I have been closely observing the buildout of XAI AI data centers and here is why we will get 40-60 years or more of progress in about 6 years. People are used to Moore's Law which has been around . This ... Read more

I know that AI experts like Epoch AI have been projecting a continuation of the 5X per year increase in AI training compute but Grok 2 was released in August 2024 and 6 months later Grok 3 was released with 15X increase in training compute. This shows that the 5X per year rate has been ... Read more

xAI has taken tripled the growth rate of AI data center compute. It has gone from 5X each year to over 15X each year. This next level improvement is just the start of making the ultimate business technology flywheel. Improving AI and AI data centers with AI which then makes better AI data centers which ... Read more

xAI has a permit to install 240 MWe of gas turbines, specifically fifteen Solar-SMT-130 models, will let them double the GPUs to 400,000. The 200,000 new chips will be Nvidia B200s. This should be about 6-7 Zettaflops of compute. This will be about 11 times the 100K H100s compute used for pre-training Grok 3. xAI, ... Read more

Sanctuary AI has revealed better hand sensors for their humanoid robots. It is a new generation of tactile sensor technology optimized to improve dexterous manipulation. Sanctuary is believes great robot hands are performing all of the high value tasks in the workplace when combined with AI and sensors. This requires a delicate-but durable-sense of touch ... Read more

There are critical commodities and energy prices that impact global agriculture and grocery prices. It impacts other countries more but it still costs the average american household too. It hits the crops that use the most fertilizer and use the most natural gas. The most important are wheat and corn. You may think well I ... Read more

Egypt is getting the Chinese Chengdu J-10C fighter aircraft equipped with PL-15 missiles. How does the Israeli Air Force's (IAF) Lockheed Martin F-16 and F-35 fighters match up? This is an analysis of a range of factors including avionics, radar, stealth, weaponry, maneuverability, and operational context. The J-10C is a 4.5-generation multirole fighter, while the ... Read more

Russia and Ukraine punched above their weight in the fertilizer market, especially for nitrogen and potash, because of their resource advantages and production scale. Russia was the world's top exporter of nitrogen fertilizers (like urea and ammonia), holding about 16% of global urea exports and 23% of ammonia exports before 2022 disruptions. Together with Belarus, ... Read more

Microsoft team behind the recent breakthrough in physics and quantum computing demonstrated by the new Majorana 1 chip, engineered from an entirely new material that has the potential to scale to millions of qubits on a single chip. Microsoft today introduced Majorana 1, the world's first quantum chip powered by a new Topological Core architecture ... Read more

If DOGE fails to cut US deficit then what is potential timeline for a U.S. economic collapse similar to the Soviet Union's (USSR), given a current national debt of $37 trillion increasing by $1 trillion every 100 days. Would this lead to hyperinflation, an upward spiral in interest rates and inflation? The U.S. might lose ... Read more

Baidu revealed progress of their subsidiary, Apollo Go on their earnings call. The number of paid robotaxi rides 1.1 million in 4Q 2024 which is up +36% Year over year The cumulative robotaxi rides now 9 million. This about 25-50% of the level of Waymo. They have some 100% fully driverless (no remote operator) operations. ... Read more

A SpaceX Falcon 9 landed on a new drone ship in the Bahamas. The mission also successfully deployed more version 2 mini satellites. SpaceX's decision to land Falcon 9 boosters in the Bahamas after launching from NASA's Pad 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station introduces a new approach to booster recovery, potentially improving efficiency ... Read more

Tesla is currently prevented from solving Full self driving in China because the Chinese government does not allow them to send driving video out of China and the US government does not allow AI model training in China by US companies. How can Tesla localize its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system versions 13.X or 14.X in ... Read more

I worked with Grok 3 to analyze all of the spending deep federal government spending cuts, possible end to the Ukraine war, privatization of parts of government, streamlining agencies and functions. I looked at using improved tax and other policies to achieve strong economic growth (doubling GDP growth from 2% per year to 4-5% per ... Read more

Cary, North Carolina, 19th February 2025, CyberNewsWire

February 13 2025, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) announced its secretive Aerospace Projects Office (APO) is developing a large hypersonic bomber prototype as part of the Next Generation Responsive Strike (NextRS) program. The NextRS hypersonic bomber project aims to create a reusable, large-scale platform capable of multi-mission strike and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance ... Read more

Expanding the power capacity at xAI's Colossus supercomputer in Memphis from 250 megawatts (MW) to 1.2 gigawatts (GW)-a nearly fivefold increase-is a complex challenge involving infrastructure, logistics, and regulatory hurdles. The Memphis XAI site hasexisting resources (like natural gas availability at the old Electrolux factory). This assumes typical industry constraints. Current State and Past Expansion ... Read more

IT modernization could slash 388,000 to 1 million admin, support, and non-combat roles. Given the mix (~1.04-1.17 million active-duty, 614,000-695,000 reserve, 778,000-867,000 civilian in non-combat roles), a weighted average cost of $90,000 per person is reasonable for non-combat personnel (balancing higher active-duty costs with lower reserve/civilian costs). For 388,000 to 1 million roles cut: Low-End ... Read more

xAI Grok 3 is the number one ranked AI across categories. xAI is still performing reinforcement learning and other continuing training to improve these models. They are expanding their data center from 250 megawatts of 200,000 GPUs to 1.2 gigawatts and 1 million GPUs. This will be about 20 times the compute of the 200k ... Read more

Grok 3's voice mode is slated for integration into Tesla vehicles. Elon Musk confirmed this during a February 17, 2025, live demo announcement, stating that Grok 3's voice capabilities, while still a little patchy," are expected to launch in about a week" (roughly February 24, 2025) and will enhance voice commands in all Tesla cars. ... Read more

We are going through a large federal government spending cut in the range of $1 trillion to $2 trillion per year. This would be drop from $6.7 trillion in spending. The cuts would be 15% to 30% of the total spending. I worked with Grok 3 to come up with a good plan with very ... Read more

London, United Kingdom, 18th February 2025, CyberNewsWire

xAI has released Grok 3 which is the first model to break a 1400 LLM Arena score. This makes Grok 3 the top AI model. Grok 3 is still undergoing reinforcement learning to make it even smarter. This will help Grok 3 to surpass OpenAI O3. The data center that xAI has built has been ... Read more

Grok was used in a Heinlein novel by a character who was on Mars. Grok means to fully understand something. Here is a preview of the voice mode. Voice mode will be released in about one week. It has voice inflection and tone. NEWS: Here is a sneak peek at xAI's new upcoming voice mode. ... Read more

xAI revealing Grok 3. Elon Musk claims it will be the smartest AI in the world. https://t.co/HTK4u2aYRu - Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 18, 2025 X broadcast of the Grok 3 reveal and demo.

All Tesla watchers are eagerly waiting to see the new smaller and lower cost vehicles from Tesla. These new vehicle models are expected to be seen in and built in the next 120 days. However, it is actually tough to spot a compact car with one photo without a full sized vehicle like a Model ... Read more

The Ukraine-Russia war is perfecting the killing of anyone and anything with 6 miles or so of the front. This has been an expansion of no man's land by 100 times since world war 1. US military planners are talking about massive layers of combat. They are basically saying that the first layers tens of ... Read more

The US, China and Japan are working on research and development in gallium oxide crystal growth and productionizing gallium oxide chips. The Gallium oxide chips can have a voltage resistance value 3 times higher and power consumption reduced by 60%. The power semiconductor market, sometimes called power electronics, is a large and important business that ... Read more

xAI Grok 3 release with live demo on Monday night at 8pm PT. Elon has said xAI Grok 3 will lead on all of the AI metrics when it is released. Grok 3 has been trained on over 100,000 Nvidia H100 chips. Grok 4 will be released later this year. The rapid pace of xAI ... Read more

China's DeepSeek has made innovations in the cost of AI and innovations like mixture of experts (MoE) and fine-grain expert segmentation which significantly improve efficiency in large language models. The DeepSeek model activates only about 37 billion parameters out of its total 600+ billion parameters during inference, compared to models like Llama that activate all ... Read more

There is massive cost cutting with DOGE. 200,000 jobs eliminated by firing all probationary employees. 77,000 taking the 8 month offer to quit. Soon $100 billion in savings out of $500 billion in known waste. Proposal to halve the US, Russian and China military budgets would save $440 billion for the USA. USA would still ... Read more

In 2023, the Climate Policy Initiative's Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2023 report, annual climate finance flows surpassed USD 1 trillion for the first time in 2021, reaching almost USD 1.3 trillion in 2021/2022. This represents a doubling compared to 2019/2020 levels. Paris Accords came into effect in 2016. U.S. CO2 emissions fell 14% between ... Read more

President Trump is proposing cutting the military budgets of the USA, China and Russia in half. Cutting the military in half for USA, Russia and China is also doable and makes sense. China and Russia have rapidly shrinking populations. Maintaining 2 million people in the military will not be an option soon. Russia lost 800,000 ... Read more

In 2025, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has become the second richest in the world. Jeff Bezos has rarely not been richest or second richest in the world for the past 8 years. Meta announced its move into AI-powered humanoid robots. There is excitement around AI and robotics for Meta. Meta's stock has been on a ... Read more

As I have posted, I am a top 8 predictor on Metaculus out of 34617 people according to Metaculus for baseline accuracy. I was asked by a commenter what my public prediction is for will humans land on Mars by 2030? Yes, I believe humans will land on Mars by 2030. I am superconfident SpaceX ... Read more

Aubrey de Grey had a large mouse study of combinations of antiaging treatments. They did show that combination treatments did have additive benefits. Combination treatments worked together to improve the lengthening of lifespans. Rapamycin is the strongest main confirmed antiaging treatment. His group is setting up a second experiment with new combination treatments but will ... Read more

The Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75) collided with the bulk carrier Besiktas-M off the coast of Egypt yesterday. The Pentagon reports that the collision did not endanger the Harry S. Truman. There have been previous rare collisions with a Navy ship and another ship. It was the result of gross incompetence ... Read more

Elon announced a deal for a Boring Company Dubai Loop at the end of video presentation interview. I think it has something to do with countries wanting to get on Elon's good side. Las Vegas is building out a 68 mile Boring company system with 104 stations connecting everything along the Vegas strip to the ... Read more

SpaceX Starship had by far the longest static fire ever of about 1 minute. SpaceX upgraded the flame trench and other systems. This enables longer static fires. They can now test more conditions and stress systems in different ways. The extended firing tested new hardware and cycled the six Raptor engines through multiple thrust levels ... Read more

UBER only made $2.8 billion in operating profit in 2024. They had some tax revaluation net income but those were one off financial effects. The $2.8 billion was less than 1.5% of gross revenue and 7% of UBER share of revenue. This means that UBER is far more vulnerable to any price competition. Tesla robotaxi ... Read more

The ULA (United Launch Alliance) rocket is not fully authorized for the US Space Force. The first Vulcan launch by about four years before ULA successfully completed the rocket's first demonstration flight in January 2024. ULA expected to be ready to launch the first military mission on the Vulcan rocket in mid-2024, plus two more ... Read more

I have made several thousand public predictions at Metaculus. I , Brian Wang, ranked 8th in Baseline Accuracy out of 34617 forecasters. This is a 99.98 percentile ranking. Apparently, some people do not understand a description converted into a mathematical term. Percentile is a mathematical term that is not saying there was X% correct. I ... Read more

Tesla in 2019 and 2020 had a runup from less than $15 per share in 2019 to over $60 by February 21 2020 and then it dropped in half to less than $28. Tesla was in the process of getting Tesla Model Y up to mass production and then get Tesla Shanghai into ramped production. ... Read more