New report shows automation is already causing losses, depressing wages and likely to have lasting, devastating effectIn 2013, the Oxford Martin School released a report that looked at the automation of work, assessing the likelihood that robots and other technologies would replace humans. It concluded that of the 702 job categories examined, 47% were susceptible to automation within the next 20 years. The report completely upended our ideas about the future of work.Now, a new report by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States is set to be an even bigger wake-up call. Written by economists Daron Acemoglu (MIT) and Pascual Restrepo (Boston University), it not only adds support to the Oxford Martin conclusions, it actually suggests the jobs are already lost and unlikely to come back.

Young Vic, London

All the day’s economic and financial news, as City firms prepare to move jobs out of London after Brexit

Bankers, pharmaceutical giants, Google, Facebook ... a new breed of rentiers are at the very top of the pyramid and they’re sucking the rest of us dryThis piece is about one of the biggest taboos of our times. About a truth that is seldom acknowledged, and yet – on reflection – cannot be denied. The truth that we are living in an inverse welfare state.Related: Capitalism simply isn't working and here are the reasons why | Will HuttonRelated: Wolfgang Streeck: ‘Look at London – it’s a second Rome. This is what an empire looks like’Related: Meet the rightwing power players lurking beneath Silicon Valley's liberal facade Continue reading...

Attempt to create European trading powerhouse has been formally derailed by Brussels, which said it would create a monopoly

We’ve road-tested the new 12-sided coin, and found that some ticket and vending machines don’t actually accept it

The president thinks Germany’s trade surplus is the result of manipulating the euro, but Wall Street fuelled the problemDonald Trump has criticised Germany’s enormous current account surplus, which he considers the result of German currency manipulation. But the president is wrong. While Germany’s external surplus, at 8% of GDP, is big – too big – it is not the result of currency manipulation by Germany. The real culprits are an inflationary credit bubble in southern Europe, the expansionary policies of the European Central Bank, and the financial products US banks sold to the world. So, instead of blaming Germany, Trump would do well to focus on institutions in his own country.Germany’s trade surplus is rooted in the fact that the country sells its goods too cheaply. Here, the Trump administration is basically right. The euro is too cheap relative to the US dollar, and Germany is selling too cheaply to its trading partners within the eurozone. This undervaluation boosts demand for German goods in other countries, while making Germany reluctant to import as much as it exports.Related: Trump’s trade advis​​er says Germany uses euro to 'exploit' US and EU Continue reading...

UK officials recognise that failure to agree post-Brexit trade deal with EU27 would cause havoc, according to EU sourcesEuropean diplomats based in the UK say the British government is stepping back from its threat to leave the EU without a trade deal if negotiations break down.Related: Sir Tim Barrow to hand-deliver article 50 letter to Donald TuskRelated: Brexit: everything you need to know about how the UK will leave the EU Continue reading...

Qatari investors are unperturbed by Britain’s departure from EU and looking to build on significant investmentsTheresa May’s ambitions to create a “global Britain” after Brexit have been boosted by Qatar’s announcement that it expects to invest £5bn in the UK over the next five years.On Monday, two days before the planned triggering of article 50, Qatari investors at a London conference suggested they were unperturbed by the prospect of Britain’s departure from the EU and were looking for further opportunities to build on already significant investments in the UK that include the Olympic Village in east London, the Shard building, Harrods department store and a stake in Sainsbury’s.

Rising household debt could spook the nation again so it is right to keep an eye on cheap creditAlarm bells are jangling at the Bank of England. Households have been on a borrowing binge. Consumer spending is being underpinned by debt, with an increased dependency on personal loans, payday loans, car finance and – in particular – credit cards.Threadneedle Street is worried about these trends – and rightly so. Household debt as a proportion of national income peaked at 160% at the time of the financial crisis and fell only modestly thereafter. Now – having bottomed out at 140% of GDP – the ratio is on the rise again. Continue reading...

Bank of England says City institutions need to reassure regulators that they are ready for a range of possible outcomesThe Bank of England has asked UK banks, insurers and other financial institutions to draw up comprehensive plans for how they will deal with Britain’s exit from the European Union, and will scrutinise them closely.Two days before Theresa May’s government plans to trigger article 50 and begin two years of negotiation over the UK’s departure, the Bank said City institutions would have to provide copies of contingency plans to reassure regulators that they were ready for “a range of possible outcomes”.Related: UK economy cooling after post-Brexit vote growth, surveys show Continue reading...

Aerospace industry delivered 100 aircraft in February, worth £2bn to UK, with orders up to 43, but uncertainty rises over BrexitThe global aerospace industry enjoyed a surge in aircraft orders in February, putting it on track for another record year of deliveries and boosting the UK economy.The number of commercial aircraft ordered by airlines jumped to 43 last month from just four in February 2016, according to ADS, the industry trade association.Related: Brexit and Trump mean 'dangerous new phase' for Airbus, says boss Continue reading...

Office for National Statistics to harvest data from traffic sensors, mobile phones and satellite images at new campus in WalesThe UK’s official statistics office is looking into using traffic sensors, mobile photo data and satellite images as new ways of measuring the shape of the economy.The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is opening a new data science campus at its headquarters in Newport, south Wales, on Monday as part of a £17m investment in the way the UK collects and presents data.Related: How statistics lost their power – and why we should fear what comes next | William Davies Continue reading...

Researchers say Wales and north-east are among areas most vulnerable to loss of funding, tariffs on exports and shortage of European workers

Thinktank’s analysis suggests new £3bn levy on larger employers will raise less money and have smaller impact on areas that need it mostThe government’s new £3bn apprenticeship levy threatens to deepen Britain’s north-south divide, according to a new analysis, with London and the south-east benefiting most from the government’s shakeup of staff training.The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) has warned that the apprenticeship levy, which comes into force next month, will raise less money and have a smaller impact in the areas that need it most. These areas are those that have been hit by deindustrialisation and suffer from low levels of qualifications, low productivity and low pay.Related: Pattern-cutting to tattooing: amazing apprenticeships – in pictures Continue reading...

Political revolts are inevitable in a world where employees are wage slaves and bosses super richThe rise of populism has rattled the global political establishment. Brexit came as a shock, as did the victory of Donald Trump. Much head-scratching has resulted as leaders seek to work out why large chunks of their electorates are so cross.Related: What the 21st century can learn from the 1929 crash | Larry ElliottThose responsible for global financial crisis got away with it while those who were innocent bore the brunt of austerityRelated: Brexit has allowed the banks to get off Britain's naughty stepRelated: Wolfgang Streeck: ‘Look at London – it’s a second Rome. This is what an empire looks like’ Continue reading...

US president’s failure to win backing for his repeal of Obamacare has delivered a dose of reality to the marketsWall Street’s uncritical love affair with Donald Trump is over. For five months, traders have swallowed whole the idea that the president would swiftly get a package of tax cuts through a Republican-dominated Congress, giving a boost to growth and corporate profits in the process.Yet the first real test of Trump’s ability to get lawmakers to do his bidding – the repeal of Obamacare – has been a disaster. The resistance on Capitol Hill has left the financial markets wondering when – and indeed whether – Trump will be able to deliver on his fiscal boost. Continue reading...

The woman from the agency at the centre of the Sports Direct scandal is up before the select committee this weekWhile Sports Direct founder Mike Ashley was undoubtedly the stand-out performer at June’s business, innovation and skills select committee hearing into the retailer’s treatment of staff, the show put on by Transline’s Jennifer Hardy is often overlooked.She is the finance chief of the temporary employment agency whose performance prompted committee chairman Iain Wright to accuse her of deliberately misleading MPs, after Hardy claimed the firm lost its gangmaster licence following an “administrative error ... not a misdemeanour”. Continue reading...

Trump issued an ultimatum after the vote was postponed on his bill to replace Obamacare, raising fears about his ability to push through other growth-boosting reforms

You may think that a smuggler in the Tunisian desert has nothing to do with your trip to the supermarket. You’re wrongAs I talk to him, Ahmed pulls his chair into his store to escape the hot Tunisian sun. He is a retired teacher – the years of screaming children can be counted in the rings framing his eyes. Behind him is his merchandise. To make up for a small pension, Ahmed is selling kitchenware in a market near the Libyan border, over four hundred tiny concrete garages surround him, goods piled high: clothes, bags, microwaves. It looks like any other market, but note an invisible detail: everything sold here is illegal. Every good in this market has been smuggled into Tunisia. Ahmed, though he may not look the part, is a smuggler.Related: Supply chain audits fail to detect abuses, says reportRelated: Living and looking for lavatories – why researching relief is so relevantRelated: The world in 2065: what do social scientists think the future holds? Continue reading...

Two former members of the Bank of England’s interest rate-setting committee discuss the outlook for this yearProfessor of economics at Dartmouth College, New Hampshire, and member of the Bank’s MPC from June 2006 to May 2009 Continue reading...

The latest monthly Guardian analysis finds signs of a slowdown as prices rise and real pay shrinks• Help fund our journalism by becoming a Guardian supporterBritish households are being warned to prepare for a tightening squeeze on living standards, as a Guardian analysis shows the Brexit vote’s blow to the pound is stoking inflation while pay packets are shrinking in real terms.As Theresa May prepares to trigger article 50 next week, kicking off the formal process of the UK leaving the EU, the economy continues to defy the doomsayers who predicted a sudden downturn after the referendum. But signs of a slowdown are now emerging as higher prices put pressure on companies and consumers alike.Related: How has the Brexit vote affected the UK economy? March verdictRelated: 'The Brexit vote is starting to have major negative consequences' – experts debate the data Continue reading...

Maryvale’s Australian Paper, the only copy paper manufacturer in the country, urges government to hold firm on tariffs to keep out subsidised importsAustralia’s only copy paper manufacturer, one of the largest remaining employers in Gippsland’s Latrobe Valley, is concerned free trade negotiations with Indonesia could frustrate moves to impose anti-dumping tariffs.The Anti-Dumping Commission filed its report on paper imports to the federal government on Friday, after a 10-month investigation.Related: Emergency intervention urged to keep open Hazelwood power plantRelated: What will fill the hole left by coal? Continue reading...

Retail sales rose by a stronger-than-expected 1.4% in February as UK consumers took Brexit and rising inflation in their stride

Business pressure to weaken bribery laws and government’s inability to focus on non-Brexit issues are also concerns, says groupBrexit could damage the UK’s efforts to tackle corruption and give multinationals leverage over the British government in bribery cases, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has warned.Business pressure to weaken bribery laws and an inability by the government to focus on non-Brexit issues are both risks associated with leaving the European Union, according to a new report by the group.Related: Pro-Brexit ministers 'relaxed about leaving EU without trade deal' Continue reading...

Recovery after slump in December and January is not enough to reverse slide in three-month trend, says ONSBritain’s retailers received a respite from a two-month losing streak when spending in high street stores and online bounced back in February.The Office for National Statistics said retail sales volumes were up by 1.4% on January and 3.7% higher than in February 2016.Related: UK retail sales surge as consumers shrug off Brexit fears - business live Continue reading...

She talks blithely of ‘taking back control’. But this Brexit prime minister is about to find out just how painful divorce always is after a 40-year marriageIt’s not the beginning of the end (of Brexit) – but it’s definitely the end of the beginning. Despite the fixation in the UK on the precise date and legal niceties of the article 50 process, the most important event of the weeks to come will not be the notification itself but the EU response to it, and the political and economic dynamics that sets into motion.If things go according to plan, we’re headed for the usual EU negotiating scenario: long interludes of tedium and small print interspersed with episodes of late-night brinkmanship ending eventually in a compromise no one likes, but which everyone will describe as a victory.Possibilities would be disruption at borders, for both travellers and businesses, as we and the rest of the EU reintroduce long-abandoned controlsRelated: A Mini part's incredible journey shows how Brexit will hit the UK car industry Continue reading...

Adding up the impact of slashed benefits and a 58% reduction in central funding, the council says it’s England’s poorest wards that are being hit again and againIn Liverpool, austerity is visible: boarded-up libraries, closed-down day centres and shut nurseries. But, as in countless cities and towns across the UK, the bleakest of its marks are hidden behind closed doors: the young mum skipping meals to pay the rent because of the benefit cap, or the cancer patient kept awake by fear he’ll be found “fit for work”.Related: Cuts that squeeze the life out of Liverpool | LettersPeople living in Liverpool District B lost £807 per household, while Hart council in Hampshire got away with £28Related: My daughter is not deemed 'disabled enough' to get free parking | Nicky Clark Continue reading...

US and UK markets fell as investors grew impatient with the president’s policies, but lower oil prices could also have a political impact

US shares fell – with a knock-on effect elsewhere – as the new administration struggles to follow through on spending and tax cuts promisesShares, oil and the US dollar were all under pressure as global financial markets took fright at the prospect that Donald Trump would fail to deliver on his growth-boosting promises.In the most nervous conditions since the immediate aftermath of the president’s shock victory in last November’s elections, stock markets in Asia and Europe fell in response to Tuesday’s sharp decline on Wall Street.Related: Asian shares drop as investors fear Trump won't deliver on promises Continue reading...

Shares fall in Europe and Asia after Wall Street suffered its worst day this year amid concerns that President Trump will not be able to deliver on policy pledges

Consumer spending likely to fall as rising inflation and weak wage growth biteUK households are the most downbeat about their finances since 2013, as families start to feel the pinch from rising inflation and weak wage growth, according to a new survey.This suggests consumer spending, until now the main driver of UK economic growth, will weaken in coming months.Related: UK wages will soon lag behind prices – will the Bank take action? | Larry Elliott Continue reading...

Bill Gates says governments could use a robot tax to fund human services – it would also help remedy income inequalityThe idea of a tax on robots was raised last May in a draft report to the European parliament prepared by MEP Mady Delvaux from the committee on legal affairs. Emphasising how robots could boost inequality, the report proposed that there might be a “need to introduce corporate reporting requirements on the extent and proportion of the contribution of robotics and AI to the economic results of a company for the purpose of taxation and social security contributions”.The public reaction to Delvaux’s proposal has been overwhelmingly negative, with the notable exception of Bill Gates, who endorsed it. But we should not dismiss the idea out of hand. In just the past year, we have seen the proliferation of devices such as Google Home and Amazon Echo Dot (Alexa), which replace some aspects of household help. Likewise, the Delphi and nuTonomy driverless taxi services in Singapore have started to replace taxi drivers. And Doordash, which uses Starship Technologies miniature self-driving vehicles, is replacing restaurant delivery people.Related: If the robots are coming for our jobs, make sure they pay their taxes | John NaughtonRelated: Robots won't just take our jobs – they'll make the rich even richer Continue reading...

Mark Carney appears unconcerned about inflation, but he will have to justify his inactivity as real incomes fallJudging by his comments, Mark Carney is blissfully unconcerned about inflation rising above its 2% target for the first time since 2013. The governor dismissed the unexpectedly sharp rise in the cost of living as a “single data point” when quizzed about it at a conference on ethics in banking held at the Bank of England. “We are talking about much bigger issues”, Carney added.There’s little doubt that voters are unhappy about the morals – or lack of them – of those working in the financial services industry. But they are also concerned about living standards. After the latest rise, the annual rate of inflation is the same as annual growth in average earnings. Next month, wages will lag behind prices and real incomes will start falling. For millions of voters, there are not many bigger issues than that.Related: Rising food and fuel prices hoist UK inflation rate to 2.3% Continue reading...

Equality Trust calls on government to force firms to report pay gap between highest-paid and average employeeThe average FTSE chief executive earns 386 times more than a worker on the national living wage, according to an analysis published by the Equality Trust as it steps up its campaign for new government rules to expose pay gaps.The charity used annual reports from 2015 for all the companies in the FTSE 100 to calculate that their CEOs pocket an average of £5.3m each year, compared with £13,662 for someone on the national living wage of £7.20 an hour. Continue reading...

As the Wall Street Journal attacks the president for ‘not respecting the truth’, traders drop risky assets in rush for safe havensConcerns about the Trump administration’s ability to push through key reforms and deliver on a promised fiscal boost turned share markets across the Asia Pacific region into a sea of red on Wednesday.

It’s not just fleeing conflict that makes victims out of refugees – it’s also denying them the means to become autonomous and productiveFrom the 1980s on, a dominant international approach has been taken towards the majority of the world’s refugees. Concentrated in a small number of host countries, close to war zones, displaced people have been settled in what have become known as “humanitarian silos”. Such places are usually remote, arid, dangerous and almost always have strict prohibitions on socio-economic activity. They are designed to deal only with the emergency phase of refugee intake, and yet the model has endured, leaving individuals and families stranded for years at a time.This strategy undermines autonomy and dignity. It also erodes human potential by focusing almost exclusively on people’s vulnerabilities, rather than on rebuilding their lives. Inevitably, many of those directly affected by it become disillusioned and choose to move on, gravitating towards urban areas in the host nation or risking their lives crossing oceans to other countries.Related: Refugee camps are not the answer to a complex crisisRelated: Innovation at Zaatari: how do refugees make tents and caravans into homes?Related: Syrian refugees in Jordan: 'If they cut the coupons, we will probably die' Continue reading...

Tory tensions as some MPs say they face battle against ‘bonkers’ Eurosceptics actively promoting WTO termsBrexiters in the cabinet and other Conservative frontbenchers have privately told colleagues they are relaxed about the prospect of Britain crashing out of the EU on to World Trade Organisation rules, the Guardian understands.Senior figures within the party have been persuaded by the argument that members of the WTO are less likely to try to punish the UK, while the European Union is looking to exact a political price for Brexit. Continue reading...

Food and fuel prices drove the consumer prices index to the highest level in almost three-and-a-half years in February

Standard of living fears build as wage growth slows and inflation leaps from 1.8% in January to highest level since September 2013Rising food and fuel prices pushed Britain’s inflation rate to 2.3% last month, the highest rate for more than three years.Inflation was well above the 2.1% expected in a Reuters poll of economists, as grocery bills started rising after years of food getting cheaper. Continue reading...

The exuberant market reaction to his win has not been translated into progress – he must work with Congress to deliverFinancial markets seem convinced that the recent surge in business and consumer confidence in the US economy will soon be reflected in “hard” data, such as GDP growth, business investment, consumption, and wages. But economists and policymakers are not so sure. Whether their doubts are vindicated will matter for both the US and the world economy.Donald Trump’s election as US president has triggered a surge in positive economic sentiment, because he pledged that his administration would aggressively pursue the policy trifecta of deregulation, tax cuts and reform, and infrastructure construction. Republican majorities in both houses of Congress reinforced the positive sentiment, as they signalled Trump would not face the kind of paralysing gridlock that Barack Obama confronted for most of his presidency.Related: Trump faces formidable institutional obstacles – so what can he do? | Barry Eichengreen Continue reading...

•Post-US election stock market boom and rise in oil price swells numbers

New CBI campaign says economy risks being left behind unless UK research budget rises to 3% of GDP from 1.7%Britain must Brexit-proof its economy by ramping up spending on research and development or risk being left behind in the global race to deliver game-changing innovations in areas such as space tourism and robotics, the country’s leading business group has said.The CBI lobby group will launch a campaign on Monday to urge the government to adopt an ambitious new target for R&D spending of 3% of GDP, compared with the current level of 1.7%. Continue reading...

Though he talked tax cuts, Ronald Reagan in fact turned on the public spending taps, to great effect at home and harm abroad. But 2017 is hardly 1981For the first few months after his election, Donald Trump was cast by many in the financial markets as the reincarnation of Ronald Reagan. His plans for deep and widespread tax cuts and a bonfire of regulations would, they said, spark a business renaissance akin to that credited to the stetson-wearing president who dominated the 1980s.Stock market investors lapped up Trump’s speeches and tweets, and sent the main New York share indices to fresh highs. Last October, before the US election, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was chugging sideways below 18,000. By the first week of March, its value had topped 21,000, a rise of almost 17%. Continue reading...

The policy is a deadly obsession that has long passed its sell-by dateWilliam Keegan reminds us that austerity was, and is, a policy choice (“We all need a stiff drink to swallow Hammond’s austerity”, Business, last week). It is based on “the Conservative party’s obsession with shrinking the size of the state and minimising the so-called ‘tax burden’ ”, a “burden” that Keegan also wisely reminds us “helps to ensure we have decent hospitals, schools and infrastructure generally”.This is a deadly obsession that has long passed its sell-by date. Ask a Conservative to defend it and they will reply by asking you if you want to end up like Greece, “a failing state”. The answer to that can be found in Raoul Martinez’s superb new book, Creating Freedom: Power, Control and the Fight for Our Future. He retells the story of Iceland, whose banking collapse was worse than any, but whose people refused to allow its government to accede to the IMF’s austerity demands. Continue reading...

If automation pushes joblessness to 20%, what happens to those who are left behind? Reducing working hours might be part of the solutionOne of the more striking things about economic debate in this country is that there is a broad call for “more reform” and yet an equally narrow view of what such reform should constitute.Economic reform is often synonymous with reducing labour costs and increasing after-tax profit, because much of the debate is generated by those whose view of the world and position in life is benefitted by such outcomes. But many of these styles of reform are most suited to an economy that might be passing us by – one where output is greatly disconnected from employment.Related: Could automation make life worse for women? Continue reading...

Figures next week will show the pummelled pound’s effect on prices, but don’t expect an interest rate hike just yetRising food and fuel costs are expected to have pushed inflation to its highest level in more than three years when official figures are released on Tuesday, underscoring the impact of the Brexit-battered pound on prices in the shops.Economists predict that the data will show inflation, on the consumer prices index (CPI) measure, hitting 2.1% for February, up from 1.8% in January. Continue reading...

All the day’s economic and financial news, as shares in London climb higher and finance ministers meet in Germany

Thinktank says progress has slowed and governments must push through change or face sluggish growth and inequalityGovernments must push through more fundamental reforms to boost growth, cut inequality and protect workers from rapid changes in technology if they are to win back the trust of voters, the west’s leading economics thinktank has warned.The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development says stagnating living standards in many countries have left people disenchanted and unwilling to support more changes by their governments in areas such as jobs markets.Related: ILO warns of rise in social unrest and migration as inequality widens Continue reading...