ONS data signals further decline in living standards for UK households as unemployment rate stays at 42-year lowBritain is experiencing a rapid decline in living standards with the biggest squeeze in workers’ pay since 2014, according to the latest official data.Regular pay adjusted to account for the impact of inflation fell by 0.6% year on year in the three months to April. It was the weakest data since the summer months in 2014, according to the Office for National Statistics. The decline followed a 0.4% drop in the three months to March.

There has been nothing like the current wage squeeze in living memory – and there is no immediate prospect of recoveryCast your mind back to March 2008. The financial markets have been in turmoil since the previous summer and in the previous month the Labour government has been forced to nationalise the troubled bank Northern Rock. Few realised it at the time but the economy had peaked. A deep and brutal recession was about to begin. In that month, the average basic weekly wage, excluding bonuses, was £473.The recession officially came to an end by late 2009 and after a couple of years of weak and patchy growth, the worst seemed to be over. Activity picked up, unemployment started to come down. Yet more than nine years after the slump of 2008 began, wages – the yardstick by which most people judge whether the economy is doing well or not – have not recovered. In fact, according to the Office for National Statistics, they have gone backwards. The average basic weekly wage, adjusted for movements in prices, now stands at £458.Related: Pay squeeze intensifies as wages growth falls further behind inflation Continue reading...

Brussels has retained a nuclear option: the possible relocation of the £880bn-a-day euro clearing businessIt was billed as the first big Brexit battle for the City of London. Would Brussels launch a raid on London’s lucrative business of clearing €1tn (£880bn) a day of euro-denominated trades, which is what former French president François Hollande wanted when he said “those who seek the end of Europe” needed to be taught “a lesson”? Or would the European commission take the grown-up view that, actually, forcing all this financial activity to take place within the borders of the EU would do more harm than good, even for the EU itself?The answer – as with most things Brexit-related – is messy. The keenly awaited report from the commission booted the important decisions into the long grass of technical assessments. Yet the commission has also retained the nuclear option of enforced relocation for clearing houses, bodies that stand between two parties to a financial trade, when they’re dealing in euro-denominated derivatives.Related: Brussels plan could force euro clearing out of UK after Brexit Continue reading...

Britain’s cost of living is rising at the fastest pace in four-year high, intensifying the squeeze on households

With inflation at a four-year high and real wages shrinking, the Conservatives need to show the age of austerity is overAnyone seeking an explanation for the bloody nose received by the government in the election should start with wages, prices and living standards.Sure, the Conservatives fought a terrible campaign. True, Theresa May’s shortcomings were exposed. No question, the mobilisation of young voters by Labour played a big part in the result.Related: Britons feel the squeeze as inflation rises to four-year high of 2.9% Continue reading...

Rising cost of package holidays one factor in unexpected May increase, with inflation continuing to outpace UK wage growthUK inflation rose to a four-year high in May as the pound’s sharp fall since the Brexit vote worked its way through the economy, intensifying the squeeze on household budgets.The increasing cost of computer games and package holidays helped push up inflation to 2.9% last month, above the expectation of economists that it would remain at the 2.7% rate seen in April. The year-on-year rise in the consumer prices index (CPI) means prices continue to go up faster than wages for many workers, further denting living standards.Related: Business Today: sign up for a morning shot of financial news Continue reading...

Tom Perriello’s progressive campaign for governor could be a model for Democrats preparing to run against Trump in the midterm elections“The state ends at Roanoke, we are the forgotten corner of Virginia,” says local Democratic activist Oliver Keene of Tazewell, where 20% of the town lives in poverty. “In our eyes, past Roanoke, nobody cares about us. We don’t exist.”Campaigning for statewide office, most Democratic candidates have typically ignored the deep red Appalachian corner of the state where Trump won many of the counties by 70% margins.

Lack of majority means government will need to compromise on public services and Brexit, environment secretary says

Unless the political class faces up to our economic failure, there will be no recovery from this crisisEven as their world came apart, the bankers clung to denial. By August 2007, the flagship hedge fund of Wall Street’s most prestigious firm was tanking fast – and what explanation came from the man at Goldman Sachs? “We were seeing things that were 25-standard deviation moves, several days in a row.” The bank was getting hit by events that were only meant to happen once every 100,000 years – and they were happening every day of the week. Given a choice between blaming their models or reality, Goldman’s bosses held the world at fault.You know the rest because, a decade later, you and I are still paying for it. How the banks died, the world economy collapsed and most of us got poorer. How the financiers, mainstream economists and regulators were so detached from reality that they swore blind that such a catastrophe was impossible – even while it was under way.Related: Remember, kids: only the strong and stable Tories can fix this mess | Marina HydeRelated: Our manifesto changed the campaign. The tide is now turning against austerity | Emily ThornberryRelated: Forget culture wars, the election was about power, cash and opportunity | Tim Bale Continue reading...

Manufacturers are most optimistic about recruiting but public sector looking to cut jobs, ManpowerGroup poll findsEmployers in Britain are planning to take on new workers over coming months despite looming Brexit negotiations and slower economic growth, according to a survey.A poll of 2,109 employers by recruitment agency ManpowerGroup found that a net balance of 5% were planning to increase staff levels rather than cut them over the July-to-September quarter. That was unchanged from the previous poll three months ago but down slightly from a +7% reading at the end of 2016 when the UK economy was still growing strongly.Related: Business Today: sign up for a morning shot of financial news Continue reading...

UK political instability will harm economic growth and debt rating, say two main credit rating agenciesThe inconclusive outcome of Britain’s snap election will complicate and probably delay Brexit negotiations that were due to start next week, a leading credit rating agency has warned.Moody’s, one of the big financial bodies that assigns credit scores to governments, said Theresa May’s failure to secure an outright majority would also hurt the UK’s standing on international debt markets because it was likely to result in more public borrowing.Related: Business Today: sign up for a morning shot of financial newsIn terms of the outlook for growth, it's clear that things are not going in the right direction Continue reading...

Predictions of gloom after the Brexit vote didn’t materialise – but this time we face an income squeeze and an EU ticking clock“It is hard to overstate what a dramatic impact the current political uncertainty has on business leaders, and the consequences could – if not addressed immediately – be disastrous for the UK economy,” says Stephen Martin, director general of the Institute of Directors, pointing to a poll of members that showed 57% were quite or very pessimistic about the economy over the next 12 months.We heard similar predictions of gloom from the business world after last year’s referendum, of course. They did not materialise, or at least not in the style imagined. The Brexit flunk was a brief affair and the Bank of England and almost every other forecaster was obliged to admit that Armageddon would not be arriving as previously advertised. Could the plot run so happily again?Related: Bad EU trade deal 'disastrous' for UK jobs, investment and growth Continue reading...

Ricard Rosselló to push Congress to admit Puerto Rico as America’s 51st state, but experts suggest referendum result will have little impact on US lawmakersThe governor of Puerto Rico, Ricard Rosselló, has announced that he is to visit Washington in the next phase of his campaign to turn the island into the 51st state of the United States.Rosselló will go to the US capital armed with a 97% backing for statehood from voters in Sunday’s plebiscite on the future of the stricken US colony. But he faces an uphill struggle impressing his case on the US Congress, which holds ultimate power over Puerto Rico, given the historically low turnout of the vote and the boycott staged by opposition parties.Related: Puerto Ricans vote in favour of being 51st US state, but doubts remain Continue reading...

Just a few days ago, the chancellor’s days seemed numbered – now he is to speak on the economy with Mark CarneyDespite everything that has happened over the past few days, the Mansion House speeches are still scheduled to take place this week – with the difference this year being that guests had been preparing for the showpiece by speculating who might be the star mystery guest.It was always going to be the chancellor, of course, but the mystery was who might be holding that great office of state come Thursday, when the City’s finest minds (plus the usual load of bankers and fund managers) gather to hear what the second lord of the Treasury and the governor of the Bank of England have to say about the state of the UK economy. Continue reading...

Business reject Brexiters’ claims UK can thrive without EU trade deal in place, report by Ed Balls and Peter Sands saysBritish businesses have rejected claims by leading Brexiters that trade with the rest of the world can replace free access to European markets, arguing that quitting the single market and customs union without a trade deal with the EU will harm their growth prospects.In a report by the former shadow chancellor Ed Balls and Peter Sands, senior fellows at Harvard University’s Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government, UK businesses owners warned that a bad deal, or no deal, on Brexit would be disastrous for British jobs, investment and growth.Related: Business Today: sign up for a morning shot of financial news Continue reading...

Pressures from rising prices and political uncertainty see drop in spending across clothing, household goods, food and transportSqueezed British households have cut back their spending for the first time in almost four years, according to figures that underscore the pressures from rising prices and political uncertainty.Visa, the credit and debit card processing business, said its vast database of spending patterns shows there was a drop in spending across a broad range of categories last month, including clothing, household goods, food and transport. Continue reading...

All Labour needs to do is sit back and watch as the Tory party tries to clean up its own mess for a changeWhen Theresa May called the general election at the end of April, the UK economy was struggling, inflation was on the rise and Brexit talks were looming. Seven weeks later, seemingly nothing has really changed.The economy is still struggling. May went to the country when Britain was officially the slowest-growing country in the European Union for the first time since the mid-1990s. It was announced during the campaign that inflation had edged up to 2.7%, and Brexit negotiations are supposed to start in a week’s time.Related: Election 2017: Theresa May starts work on government reshuffle as Osborne calls her 'dead woman walking' – liveRelated: 'Confidence and supply': what does it mean and how will it work for the new government?Related: Jeremy Corbyn: Labour will call on other parties to defeat government Continue reading...

Deprived students found a natural champion in Labour – but we should remember the party has made expensive promises to pensioners tooThe YouTube video artist Cassetteboy made his anti-Brexit stance clear last week when he mocked the prime minister with the words: “It is wrong to believe the fable that Theresa May belongs at the negotiating table.”It is a sentiment echoed by millions of voters, many of them newly registered millennials, who used the general election to demand many things from MPs, including a softer Brexit than the one planned by May. Continue reading...

The US territory is voting once more on whether to become America’s 51st state – but many islanders are questioning the timing of the referendum, and the costThe hall is a sea of pink and white. About 350 Puerto Ricans, mostly women, have come to hear their First Lady speak in what they hope will be the final push towards a new relationship between their island and the United States.When Beatriz Rosselló, the 32-year-old wife of the governor of Puerto Rico, finally appears at the rally outside the capital San Juan, the room erupts into a frenzy of flag-waving. The American Stars and Stripes with its 50 stars, and the Puerto Rican emblem, with its single one, intertwine amid the flurry, giving the illusion that they have fused: 51 stars in a single banner of red, white and blue.Related: Colony, state or independence: Puerto Rico's status anxiety adds to debt crisisRelated: Hedge funds tell Puerto Rico: lay off teachers and close schools to pay us backRelated: Puerto Rico's economic migrants escape to US mainland in search of stability Continue reading...

Immutable truths about British political culture have been breezily overturned by the electorate, confusing pundits and politicians alike. What next?

Sterling crashed to eight-week low but analysts say possibility of softer Brexit may eventually work in UK currency’s favourThe pound fell to an eight-week low and shares in housebuilders, banks and retailers lost ground after the shock election result, which increased uncertainty over both the forthcoming Brexit talks and the UK’s economic prospects.But the currency recovered from its worst levels as Theresa May announced she was forming a new government with the help of the Democratic Unionist party and vowed to press ahead with Brexit negotiations. So after falling 2.5% to $1.2635, its lowest since 18 April, sterling stood at $1.2737, down 1.65%, when London trading closed. Against the euro, it slumped to a seven-month low of €1.1289 but recovered to €1.1380, down 1.5%. Continue reading...

Small gains in industrial output and hung parliament add to fears that uncertainty will further dent already weak prospects

Somehow, the Tories convinced us that relentless belt-tightening was the only way forward. But this election has sounded the death knell for debilitating cutsAusterity has been failing as an economic idea for years. The result of the general election shows that it has now failed politically as well. Deficit reduction continues, but will no longer dominate the agenda. Theresa May’s failed gamble marks the end of a seven-year experiment.Related: A five-point plan to bring about a Labour victory – and soon | Paul MasonRelated: Young people voted because Labour didn’t sneer at them. It’s that simple | Maya Goodfellow Continue reading...

Concerns over Brexit and economic outlook push sterling to lowest level since Theresa May called snap pollThe pound slumped and shares in major banks, housebuilders and construction companies tumbled after the shock election result raised questions over the pace of Brexit talks and prospects for the UK economy.Sterling fell 2% to $1.2670 while shares in Lloyds Banking Group were down, along with those in Royal Bank of Scotland and the housebuilders Barratt and Taylor Wimpey. Shares in the fashion retailer Next were also lower on fears that consumer confidence would take a knock.Related: Pound tumbles but FTSE 100 rises as hung parliament spooks the City – business liveRelated: Business Today: sign up for a morning shot of financial news Continue reading...

The Republican leaders of Congress killed off that plan months before Trump ever reached the Oval Office. What we are left with is a farceVisitors to these American shores – if they squint and look real close – may be forgiven for thinking that they’ve stumbled back into socialism. We still have a federal post office. We have a national railroad – ok, it’s not much. And here in Texas, I pay my water, sewer, and electric bills to the local government, send my kids to the public schools (free, with orchestras) and teach at a state university. At 65, I have reached the age of social security and Medicare without working a day in the private sector.

There are echoes of 1974 rather than 1983 as hung parliament points to possibility of second poll within monthsWhen it closed for business on election day, the City of London was in confident mood. Theresa May was Margaret Thatcher. Jeremy Corbyn was Michael Foot. Labour’s manifesto was, if not the longest suicide note in history, the second longest. Opinion polls were pointing to a Tory majority of about 100, which is what Thatcher got in her second general election victory.By 10pm when the results of the exit poll were released, it dawned on the City that this was not a rerun of 1983 but of 1974. May was not Thatcher, she was Ted Heath, a prime minister lacking the human touch who had called an election when there was no need to do so. With a hung parliament pointing to the possibility of a second general election within months – another echo of 1974 – the markets responded in predictable fashion by dumping the pound.Related: Business Today: sign up for a morning shot of financial news Continue reading...

First quarter figures of 0.2% GDP growth beaten by every other nation in 28-country bloc as weaker pound after the Brexit vote fuels price inflationThe UK economy was the worst performer in the European Union in the opening months of 2017 as the Brexit vote took its toll, according to official statistics that underscore the challenge facing the next British government.

European Central Bank has raised its growth forecasts, and cut its inflation forecasts, after dropping pledge to lower rates if needed.

The economic sweet spot may not last forever but at least the bank has got the European economy moving againGrowth forecasts revised up. Inflation forecasts revised down. Jobs being created. Take a bow Mario Draghi. Urged on by its proactive boss, the European Central Bank has achieved what looked impossible until recently: it has got the eurozone economy moving again.Draghi should milk the applause while he can because the eurozone’s sweet spot won’t last for ever. It didn’t in the US and it didn’t in the UK, two countries that pursued exactly the same macro-economic strategy as the ECB, only earlier.Related: Mario Draghi predicts faster growth and lower inflation after ECB shuts door to rate cuts – business live Continue reading...

We look at the impact on markets and the pound from four possible poll outcomes

Royal Bank of Scotland’s abrasive tone, and its seemingly freewheeling approach to racking up legal fees, have felt wrongNow we know: Royal Bank of Scotland’s rights issue in 2008 wasn’t a £12bn cash call, it was a £13bn affair. The extra £1bn is how much Fred Goodwin’s successors have spent settling and fighting claims from irate retail investors who thought the rights issue document was misleading.The latest settlement with RBS Action Group, worth about £200m, will probably bring an end to the process. One can’t yet say so definitively, because some claimants outside the group haven’t formally accepted, so the judge left the door ajar for a trial. But the diehards have only limited time in which to demonstrate they have the funds to continue, so a revival of proceedings is a long shot. Goodwin and three other former RBS directors can breathe more easily. They probably aren’t going to be called as witnesses.Related: Santander rescues Spain's failing Banco Popular from collapse - business live Continue reading...

Thinktank forecasts UK will suffer Brexit-related slowdown and calls for end to austerity

Despite a media blackout, we’re at No 4 in the UK charts, with over 2.5m views on YouTube. It looks like young people are into political music after allSix months after the coalition government came to power, the first version of Liar Liar was written out of a deep frustration with austerity politics. David Cameron promised that “we’re all in this together” – but the aggressive cuts to public services coupled with banker bailouts told another story. We wanted to put the anger of many Britons to a beat and become an outlet for protest, while providing levity and solidarity in grim times.Liar Liar is an anomaly in the charts – no tantalising sexual lyrics, and Tory politicians in the videoRelated: ‘She’s a liar, liar’: anti-Theresa May song heads to top of charts Continue reading...

Neoliberalism was a creature of the Reagan and Thatcher era. Austerity is its death rattle. Before it does any more damage, Britain needs a plan for growthThe choice facing the voters in this election is clear – between more failed austerity or a Labour party advancing an economic agenda that is right for the UK. To understand why Labour is right, we first need to look back to the 1980s.Under Ronald Reagan in the United States and Margaret Thatcher in the UK, there was a rewriting of the basic rules of capitalism. These two governments changed the rules governing labour bargaining, weakening trade unions; and they weakened anti-trust enforcement, allowing more monopolies to be created. In our economy today we can see industries with one or two or three firms with market power. This gives them the power to raise prices – and as they raise prices, people’s incomes fall, in terms of what they can buy.Austerity has not only damaged the European economies, including the UK, but actually threatens future growthRelated: The austerity delusion | Paul Krugman Continue reading...

Most arguments for shunning animal products focus on health, ethics and the environment, the vegan author says. ‘I just wanted to have a fourth perspective, which is economics’David Robinson Simon’s latest colonoscopy was carried out at a major hospital in southern California by the head of its gastroenterology department. “I said something like, ‘I hope you don’t find any polyps, because I’m a vegan, so I shouldn’t be at risk,’” Simon says. “He said, ‘Ah, that’s a bunch of nonsense.’”

If re-elected, the Tories will bring more austerity and no guarantee of investment-led growth. Labour’s plans could mean escape from stagnationOn the day that former Royal Bank of Scotland boss Fred Goodwin escaped explaining in court how he crashed the business and lost billions of pounds during the 2008 financial crash, it is timely to consider Britain’s post-election economic fortunes. It is a future still defined by the banking crash that Fred “the Shred” Goodwin was so much a part of, and by the aftershocks that still weigh the government down with debt. In particular, the blow to confidence deterred businesses from making the kinds of investments needed to raise productivity and lift average wages. Britain’s not a strong and stable economy, but a fundamentally weak and enfeebled one, brought low by a banking industry that lent hundreds of billions more than it should have to people it barely knew.It is not for the want of profits that businesses have shied away from shopping for the latest ideas or buying the latest kit. Official figures show corporate profits last year were back to the peak achieved in 2008. In the last quarter, the number of companies convinced their profit forecasts were on target or likely to exceed expectations was at a three-year high. Yet in the three months before Christmas, business investment actually fell 0.9% and was flat overall during the previous year. Continue reading...

The money tree should be more than a fantasy used by Conservatives to bash Labour spending plans, say Guardian readersTory politicians now frequently accuse Labour of believing in the existence of a “magic money tree” that will enable a Labour government to “pay for it” (Front page, 3 June). They hope that none of us will remember that in its 2014 Q1 Quarterly Bulletin the Bank of England published a graphic and explicit account of the facts of money: almost all money comes into this world “out of thin air”, conjured into existence by the book-keeping act in which “whenever a bank makes a loan, it simultaneously creates a matching deposit in the borrower’s bank account, thereby creating new money”. This had for very many years been well understood by bankers, but for some reason most of them had been too shy to admit such facts outside a small circle of consenting adults.The secret of political understanding is that most accusations hide guilty secrets. In this case the money tree is by no means a fantasy: it is the very real tree of quantitative easing, a tree that has dropped billions of pounds of new money into banks and financial institutions. The resulting inflation of asset values has allowed the few to become obscenely wealthy while the Tories have increased the national debt by nearly £800bn since 2010. Continue reading...

South African economy is suffering its second recession in eight years as trade shrinks and manufacturing contracts

Owen Jones and Jonathan Freedland are joined by Zoe Williams to discuss why the economy has played such a limited role in this election. Plus: London mayor Sadiq Khan becomes the latest target of Donald Trump’s Twitter feedElections in Britain and elsewhere are usually fought primarily on the economy – the line from Bill Clinton’s presidential campaign, “it’s the economy, stupid,” has become a political cliche. But in the 2017 election, interrupted twice by terrorist attacks and fought initially on Brexit, the economy has dropped down the agenda.Joining Owen Jones and Jonathan Freedland today is the Guardian columnist Zoe Williams. Continue reading...

Voters, take note: a World Bank survey of Indonesian households suggests people have a strong tendency to underestimate the extent of inequality – and it reveals how this can affect their political allegiance, too

Pundits pretend that Corbyn and May are poles apart. But both understand that the financial crisis changed everything – and a new ideological era is beginningSeen from a sofa, the world looks very different. And to listen to TV’s sofa pundits is to hear a very different election. They would have you believe that Labour and the Conservatives have rarely been further apart. That voters face “a clear choice” between a hard left and a Brextremist right, the inedible and the unpalatable. Plausible and conventional, it’s a classic sofa argument.It also misses the critical change in this election.The Conservative manifesto is closer to Labour’s than at any point since the second world warRelated: Britain is in the midst of a working-class revolt | John Harris Continue reading...

Reports show drop in retail sales, a slowdown in services sector and fall new car sales in MayBritish households are cutting back as the Brexit effect on the pound continues to raise living costs, according to a clutch of reports that show shops, car dealerships and other consumer-facing businesses coming under pressure last month.Uncertainty about the outcome of Thursday’s election was also cited as a factor as the reports showed a drop in retail sales, a slowdown for the vast services sector and a fall in new car sales last month.Related: Energy price rises help drive UK inflation up to 2.7% Continue reading...

London sees biggest drop, as property prices also slide for third month in a rowAverage UK rents have fallen for the first time in more than seven years, with London seeing the biggest decline, according to new data.The slowdown in the rental sector mirrors a similar picture in the housing market, with figures showing that property prices have fallen for the third month in a row.

Uncertainty grows about trade deal with the EU that some in the US felt would be more important to its interests than a post-Brexit deal with Theresa MayThe prospect of a revived EU-US trade deal is in “deep freeze”, according to Brussels sources, undermining reports that the EU has been inching ahead of the UK in the race for an arrangement with Washington.

Politicians talk up our world-beating arts scene — then cut the classes teaching children creativity through drama, art and musicThe creative industries haven’t had much of a look-in during this Brexit election. As far as I’m aware, culture secretary Karen Bradley hasn’t been allowed out during the campaign to talk about them. “Britain’s arts and culture are world-beating and are at the heart of the regeneration of modern Britain,” says the Conservative manifesto, politely; but the proposal to double the immigration skills charge will do nothing but damage a sector that thrives on international talent.The Labour manifesto, which is altogether more concrete about what can be achieved, refers to the creative industries as “a source of national pride”, and promises to “put creativity back at the heart of the curriculum”. This stops short of a pledge to add an arts element to the Ebacc – as the subset of GCSEs given special status by the government is now known – but is still welcome.Related: Music education is now only for the white and the wealthy | Charlotte C GillThe instant availability of everything you want turns out not to include the thing you want most of all: human contactRelated: Campaign issues cultural ‘call to arms’ to boost arts learning in England Continue reading...

Shares in Qatar plunge 8% amid diplomatic crisis, as UK service companies report that new business growth weakened last month

The world economy faces some serious downside risks but at least we now know where the risks are and how to work around themFor the past two years, the global economy has been growing, but it has swung between periods of rapid expansion and deceleration. During this period, two episodes, in particular, caused US and global equity prices to fall by about 10%. Is a pattern emerging, or is a fitful global recovery set to stabilise?The first episode came in August-September 2015, when many observers feared China’s economy was heading for a hard landing. The second episode, in January-February 2016, also stemmed from concerns about China. But investors were also increasingly worried about stalling US growth, collapsing oil and commodity prices, rapid interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve, and unconventional negative-rate monetary policies in Europe and Japan.Related: Why the global markets are ignoring the global turmoil | Nouriel Roubini Continue reading...

With one in three workers soon to be over 50 some creative thinking is needed to keep them employed and fulfilled