Governor Mark Carney begins work on transitional arrangements to maintain London’s stature in global financeThe Bank of England is pushing ahead with plans for transitional arrangements after Brexit negotiations in an attempt to protect financial institutions from a cliff edge deal that could undermine their stability.Governor Mark Carney has met senior figures in the City to stress the need for a smooth path out of the European Union that maintains its stature and strong links with the continent.Related: Bank of England to reveal stress test results for UK's biggest banks Continue reading...

Snapshot assesses resilience of six banks and one building society as well as risks to post-Brexit financial systemThe Bank of England is due to provide a snapshot of the strength of Britain’s biggest lenders after assessing their resilience to a dramatic economic downturn and sharp fall in house prices.Threadneedle Street will announce the outcome of its annual health check of the six biggest banks – and one building society, Nationwide – on Wednesday, alongside its assessment of the major risks to the financial system in the wake of the Brexit result.Related: RBS takes biggest knock of UK banks in EU-wide financial stress testRelated: Ireland is 'ideal home' for European banking regulator after Brexit Continue reading...

Picking infrastructure is easy, but unless low pay in the services sector is addressed productivity goals will remain elusiveAll roads lead to Rome, and experience would suggest, all autumn statements lead to roads.Under Alistair Darling there was an M1 upgrade in what was then called a pre-budget report. His Conservative successor George “we are the builders” Osborne pledged the biggest road investment programme since the 1970s and a permanent pothole fund. Then last week, Osborne’s successor Philip Hammond stuck with tradition and promised to push ahead with road schemes in the “northern powerhouse” and to tackle congestion on key routes under plans to revive the UK’s pitiful productivity growth. Continue reading...

The Leavers somehow managed to deflect the blame for austerity on to ‘Europe’. But they are far less convincing about our economic future nowThe European Union did not cause the 2007-08 financial crisis. The European Union did not instruct George Osborne to introduce an austerity policy which magnified the deleterious effects of that crisis. The European Union did not impose neoliberal and excessively deregulatory policies which contributed to a situation where the “fruits of globalisation” were concentrated in the top 5% of the population.However, in a propaganda feat which will go down in history, the Leave campaigners managed to persuade enough British voters that the EU was the source of many of our problems, and, just as bizarrely, that leaving the EU would be the answer. Continue reading...

The forecasters due to be quizzed by the Treasury select committee this week are not likely to strike a chord with its buttoned-up chairmanA big week in parliament for the Jacob Rees-Mogg committee (formerly known as the Treasury select committee), which will again be grilling one of its favourite targets: economic forecasters.First up on Tuesday comes Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, which last Thursday said that Brexit really means British workers facing the longest pay squeeze in 70 years. The following day will see Robert Chote, chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility, whose organisation also had a run-out last week, when it predicted the UK economy would slow next year and inflation would rise. Continue reading...

Outstanding loans have risen sharply to 40% of GDP but analysts fear the end of the credit binge could trigger a crisis for the wider worldChinese household debt has risen at an “alarming” pace as property values have soared, analysts have said, raising the risk that a real estate downturn could wreak havoc on the world’s second largest economy.

The president-elect’s protectionism has alarmed the WTO and been damned as ‘destructive’ in a major report. But was it just loud campaign bluster?Donald Trump’s determination to stamp his mark on US trade policy “would be horribly destructive”, according to the most exhaustive assessment of his pre-election tweets, speeches and declarations in Fox News interviews.Among the more consistent themes in his various pronouncements, the president-elect said he would tear up the Nafta agreement that gives Mexico tariff-free access to US markets on about half of its goods. Continue reading...

Sliding deadlines for safety improvements following the Rana Plaza disaster demonstrate why the Bangladesh government must act (Bangladeshi workers still in danger despite safety pledges, says report, 21 November).Rana Plaza made the potentially deadly conditions in garment factories impossible to ignore. Safety improvements promoted by retailers have brought some positive changes but, given the scale of the problem in Bangladesh, these cannot tackle the root of the problem on their own, and they are not exclusive to garment factories – so what about other sectors? Continue reading...

ONS says consumers kept spending and business investment beats forecasts, defying predictions of slowdownBritish businesses continued to invest and consumers carried on spending in the months following the Brexit vote, defying predictions that a wave of uncertainty would hit economic activity.In the first official estimate of how firms’ spending fared after the referendum, the Office for National Statistics said business investment rose 0.9% in the July-to-September quarter. That was only a small slowdown from 1% growth in the previous quarter and beat forecasts for 0.6% growth in a Reuters poll of economists. The figures echoed business surveys suggesting companies have shrugged off the shock of the referendum result for now.Business investment increases by 0.9% (£0.4 billion) in Q3 2016 compared with Q2 2016 pic.twitter.com/iTsX4OPjc1Related: UK living standards squeeze 'will be worse than after global crash'Q3 #GDP increase led by growing consumer spending, fuelled by rising household incomes https://t.co/idV7bGKXHB Continue reading...

Chancellor’s cash to help startups grow to scale is welcome, but it’s a mere drop in the ocean – especially after Skyscanner saleThe best joke in Philip Hammond’s autumn statement was the line about how he is injecting £400m of venture capital funding into the British Business Bank “to tackle the longstanding problem of our fastest-growing technology firms being snapped up by bigger companies, rather than growing to scale”. A day later, one such UK pioneer, Edinburgh-based Skyscanner, is being bought by large Chinese travel group Ctrip for £1.4bn, a sum that makes Hammond’s £400m fire-fighting fund look like a water pistol.The Treasury might argue that it has smaller, earlier-stage companies in mind for its £400m and that Skyscanner, boasting 60 million users a month for a service that scans the internet for cheap flights, had already achieved scale.Related: How will the autumn statement change Britain? Our panel’s views | Matthew d’Ancona, Martin Kettle, Gaby Hinsliff, Aditya Chakrabortty and Polly Toynbee Continue reading...

The attack on the Office for Budget Responsibility reveals where power now lies. Leavers are the masters, and will flex their muscles at willThe Office for Budget Responsibility shines like a good deed in a naughty world. It was created as an independent statutory body in 2010 to promote more trustworthy government. It was an excellent idea, was widely welcomed and has worked well. It has survived six and a half years. Now, though, it has been kneecapped in a back alley by Brexit provos and its brand has been trashed in the anti-European press’s embrace of post-truth politics.It may survive the encounter. Let us hope that it does. But this week’s hit-and-run attack means the age of OBR innocence is over. Its cautious forecasts about the impact of Brexit on the British economy had barely been reported by Chancellor Philip Hammond on Wednesday before Brexiteers decided the OBR had to be done over for displaying insufficient optimism in the cause.Related: Philip Hammond admits Brexit vote means £122bn extra borrowing Continue reading...

Expert analysis of the impact of the autumn statement shows the worst pay outlook in 70 years. That could be fertile territory for populist agitationThe slow economic strangulation of millions of Britons started long before the vote to leave the European Union this year. It was first felt when austerity wrapped its long fingers around public spending. But it all began with the Great Crash in 2008. Cataclysmic events have contributed to desolate times for workers for many years ahead. The Institute for Fiscal Studies’ finding that after this week’s autumn statement real wages in the country will still be lower by 2021 than they were in 2008, as the workforce suffers the worst decade for pay in at least seven decades, should ring alarm bells. The reasons are now well known: lower business investment, scared off by Brexit uncertainty, will result in lower productivity and sink wage growth. The drop in sterling, sparked by the fears of Britain’s departure from the continent, has pushed up inflation. Real wages will flatline next year and looming benefit cuts will squeeze living standards. The thinktank pointed out that by 2021 real GDP per household will be £1,000 lower than expected only months ago, back in March.This points to a dark time ahead for a country already split over attitudes to Europe and polarised by political forces once considered on the fringe, but now firmly in the mainstream. The IFS revealed a nation divided since 2007: while the over-60s saw their incomes rise 11% until 2014, British workers aged between 22 and 30 saw median wages fall 7%. The tax and benefit changes, modelled by the IFS, reveal that over the next five years the top 30% of earners will benefit; the bottom 70% will lose out. The government’s plan to raise the new minimum wage for over 25s – to £9 an hour by 2020 – has been derailed by lower growth. Continue reading...

Dismal trade, growth of low-level service jobs with low-level pay, and a chronic lack of investment only partly explain the gapExtra funds for new roads, research and development and skills training will drive up UK productivity and put the economy in a better position to withstand the looming Brexit shock.That was the central message in Philip Hammond’s autumn statement and went to the heart of a debate about the UK’s low productivity growth, which according to official figures, has fallen well behind Germany, the US, France and Italy.Related: Business leaders call for 'tarmac and telecoms' from productivity fund Continue reading...

This week there is much unenlightening squabbling about economic forecasts. In 1971 I arrived at university intending to read engineering and economics. After two weeks I swapped to pure engineering because I had realised that there was no “right answer” in economics. I have spent my life developing mathematical models of physical systems and making “engineering forecasts” or predictions, as engineers call them. Now, older and wiser, I realise that there is no right answer in engineering either.However, engineers address that difficulty directly. It is standard engineering practice to attach an estimate of error or uncertainty to a central estimate – to provide only a central estimate can be highly misleading. It seems this approach has not reached economics. With proper analysis of the forecasting model it will be possible to attach a probability of exceedance to any central estimate. The Brexiters might then adopt a level with, say, a 30% probability of exceedance (optimistic), whereas the remainers might adopt 60% (cautious). Political interpretation of a result can then be clearly distinguished from the model used to derive it. Such an approach might also have been useful before the referendum. I recommend it to economists who may find the results both frightening and embarrassing!

Given that real wages will still be below their 2008 level in 2021, the outlook for people on low and middle incomes is bleakDirectors of the Institute for Fiscal Studies normally avoid hyperbole. They do not tend to use words such as “dreadful” when analysing the state of the economy or the public finances.But that was the term Paul Johnson, the head of the IFS, chose to describe the era of shrinking pay packets triggered by the financial crash of 2007-08.Related: IFS warns of biggest squeeze on pay for 70 years over BrexitRelated: Autumn statement: what the economists sayRelated: UK living standards squeeze 'will be worse than after global crash' Continue reading...

Hammond’s nemeses at the Institute for Fiscal Studies put the budget on the couch and find relief only in the demise of the autumn statementThe geeks fight back. Experts may have had a bit of a kicking over the last six months but it’s looking like they are going to have the last laugh. Or at least chuckle. Laughing may be a social skill too far for an economist.Having had a night to go through the chancellor’s autumn statement, the Institute for Fiscal studies, the UK’s leading independent economic thinktank, had convened in an airless basement – daylight and the IFS are not on speaking terms – off London’s Tottenham Court Road to deliver their verdict.Related: Chancellor's looser finance targets highlight weaker UK economyRelated: The British umpire: how the IFS became the most influential voice in the economic debate | Simon AkamRelated: Philip Hammond finds his safe space with Treasury select committee | John Crace Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of all the day’s political developments as they happen, including reaction to the autumn statement and the IFS press conference

All the day’s economic and financial news, as new GDP data shows that German exports fell in the last quarter

Thinktank says the poorest 10% have been unable to recover from financial crisis because of falling real wagesThe gap between the rich and poor remains at record levels, according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development as the poorest 10% have been unable to recover from the blow dealt by the financial crisis.The Paris-based thinktank said while the richest 10% had rapidly bounced back, long-term unemployment, low-quality jobs, and greater job insecurity had disproportionately hit low-income households.Related: World Bank renews drive against inequality Continue reading...

Respected thinktank says UK’s withdrawal from EU will stoke inflation and peg back wages to below their 2008 level in 2021Workers in Britain face the longest squeeze on their pay for 70 years as Brexit knocks wage growth and stokes inflation, a leading thinktank has said.Picking over Philip Hammond’s first autumn statement, the Institute for Fiscal Studies said that by 2021, real wages in the UK – pay adjusted for inflation – will still not have recovered to their 2008 level before the global financial crisis hit.Related: IFS says workers face 'dreadful' decade without real-terms increase in wages - Politics live Continue reading...

Free-market forces have helped create a health crisis – and governments must take action to stop subsidising junk foodIt is estimated that today’s obesity epidemic costs the global economy about $2tn (£1.6tn) or some 3% of GDP. For individuals, deciding what to eat is a jealously guarded privilege, but for economists obesity is not really about people exercising free-market choice. Instead it is a market failure.The causes of the epidemic are complex, spanning the social sciences to biology and technology. Consider, for example, the shift towards urbanisation and car transport. By reducing many people’s daily physical activity, these are estimated together to reduce individuals’ need for food by 300 calories a day. So how much less food should the car driver eat to compensate? About one biscuit less a day – a trivial change that only goes to illustrate that few of us really understand the energy needs of our bodies.

Personal loans and overdrafts fuelled increase in consumer borrowing in October, data from lenders reveals

What you need to know from the OBR’s latest forecasts, from the budget deficit to GDP growthA shortfall between government spending and income that reached £155bn in the aftermath of the banking crash was forecast in March this year to fall to £55.5bn in 2016-17. The Office for Budget Responsibility said its forecast was optimistic and it will now be £68bn.Related: Brexit will blow £59bn hole in public finances, admits HammondRelated: At a glance: autumn statement – 26 key points Continue reading...

Increase to 11.9% of people aged 16-24 follows years of decline and fans fears that Brexit uncertainty will weaken jobs marketThere has been a rise in the number of young people in the UK who are not in education, employment or training, known as Neets.Official figures show an increase in the number of 16- to 24-year-olds classed as economically inactive over July to September, lifting the number of Neets to 857,000. That was an increase of 14,000 from the previous three months and up 3,000 from a year earlier.14,000 rise in the numbers of #NEETs in July-Sept 2016, compared with previous 3 months https://t.co/1K0hFWezka Continue reading...

Six experts give their verdict on Phillip Hammond’s speech and the Office for Budget Responsibility’s new forecastsThe chancellor Philip Hammond has delivered his first major set-piece on the economy and public finances. Growth forecasts for 2017 and 2018 were revised down by the the independent Office for Budget Responsibility, while government borrowing was revised up.Six economists give their take on the autumn statement.This statement makes clear that the big theme of economic policy under Hammond will be improving productivity. He wants to send a powerful signal that the UK is open for business and that the government has a plan to grow the economy through this parliament.

Thinktank says low-paid will be hardest hit in next five years as inflation and welfare cuts compound slow earnings growthFamilies face a worse squeeze on their living standards over the next five years than they suffered in the wake of the financial crisis, as Brexit slows the economy and Conservative welfare cuts bite, according to a new report.Analysis of Wednesday’s autumn statement by the Resolution Foundation thinktank suggests average earnings are set to grow only half as rapidly as in the austerity years after the economic crisis. At the same time, living standards will be undermined by higher inflation and ongoing welfare cuts. Continue reading...

City analysts say Philip Hammond’s measures are sensible as Britain faces challenging years of Brexit negotiationsThere was a veneer of discipline in the chancellor’s handling of the UK’s public finances, after he ditched his predecessor’s strict target of balancing the budget in 2020 with three looser targets to be met in the next parliament.Philip Hammond opted to set a cap on welfare spending, but only applied the new rule from the 2021/22 financial year. He also said the government’s new aim was to bring down debt as a proportion of GDP by 2021, which George Osborne had hoped would happen under his watch.Related: Move over Jams, next year this time the focus may be on PGPsRelated: The Guardian view on the autumn statement: half right, half wrong | Editorial Continue reading...

In the 2016 autumn statement the cities of the north have lost out, and all the spoils have gone to London and the south-east – againThe chancellor, Philip Hammond, is Theresa May’s chauffeur. It must be a ghastly job. He has to drive the economy towards Brexit, with no instructions, no map and no clear road ahead. Meanwhile, he has three blind mice in the back seat: David Davis, minister for I-haven’t-a-clue, Liam Fox, minister for what-on-earth-is-happening, and Boris Johnson, minister for Oh-Christ!Related: Autumn statement: OBR says Brexit impact could be even worse than feared - liveRelated: At a glance: autumn statement – 26 key points Continue reading...

This year’s shopping sales extravaganza is likely to have a feel of going, going, gone, with many items set to get more expensiveAs the clock ticks down to Black Friday, aggressive promotions on everything from 4K TVs to tablet computers and winter coats could be the last hurrah for shoppers before price hikes in 2017.After bargain-hunting consumers went on the rampage on Black Friday in 2014, fighting in the aisles for cut-price widescreen televisions, last year it was a much tamer affair, as shoppers retreated to the safety of seeking the best bargains online.Related: Black Friday: a shopper’s guideRelated: Black Friday warning as report finds only half of offers are the real deal Continue reading...

Rolling coverage and analysis as chancellor Philip Hammond announces£122bn of extra borrowing and new spending plans

Chancellor attempts to strike cautiously upbeat tone but OBR warns of extra borrowing over next five yearsPhilip Hammond conceded that Brexit will blow a £59bn black hole in the public finances over the next five years, as he outlined plans to boost investment in infrastructure and housing to equip the UK economy for life outside the EU.In his first fiscal statement, the chancellor, who had supported remain, sought to strike a cautiously upbeat tone about the country’s prospects, saying the economy had “confounded commentators at home and abroad with its strength and its resilience” since the referendum result last June.Related: At a glance: autumn statement – 26 key pointsRelated: The Guardian view on the autumn statement: half right, half wrong | Editorial Continue reading...

Gloomy UK economy forecast for 2017 may compel the chancellor to provide for ‘poor getting poorer’ alongside the ‘just about managing’The new chancellor could barely have hoped for a better backdrop. High street spending is booming, inflation remains low, unemployment is the lowest it’s been for more than a decade. And all that despite the shock referendum result and warnings from people like Bank of England governor Mark Carney and the International Monetary Fund that a vote to leave could spark recession.But it would be a very unwise chancellor who said Britain had escaped this vote unscathed. Brexit negotiations have not even started and in crucial areas such as business investment very little data is available at this point to reveal quite how much the referendum upheaval has knocked the economy off course. Continue reading...

A dysfunctional economy meant the chancellor, Philip Hammond, largely dispensed with political theatrePhilip Hammond’s first and last autumn statement was a sombre affair. The chancellor largely dispensed with political theatre to tell it straight. Britain’s economy is dysfunctional. Austerity has failed. Welfare cuts are going to bite. Brexit will be a £60bn drag on growth and the public finances. That’s the way it is.Related: Chancellor to crack down on letting fees in autumn statementRelated: 'No evidence' Jane Austen ever went to stately home mentioned in autumn statement Continue reading...

Details are scant and spending is spread over five years, with uncertainty over what government wants to buildDo not run away with the idea that the chancellor has borrowed the clothes of Donald Trump and ordered an infrastructure splurge. Ploughing £23bn into a new national productivity investment fund sounds impressive until you remember that the HS2 high-speed railway, funded separately, is due to cost £56bn at the last count.Remember, too, that the £23bn will be spent over five years, so an average of £4.6bn a year. And note that the spending is weighted towards the later years; in the first year, 2017-18, the figure is just £2.4bn.Related: Philip Hammond admits Brexit vote means £122bn extra borrowing Continue reading...

Forecaster says weak business investment and rising inflation will affect economy but Britain will dodge recessionWeaker business spending and a squeeze on consumers from higher inflation will dent the UK economy next year, but warnings for a post-referendum recession should prove unfounded, according to the government’s independent forecasters.The Office for Budget Responsibility was forced to revise down its prediction made before the Brexit vote that GDP would rise 2.2% next year. It now sees the economy expanding by only 1.4% and warns there will be a knock-on effect on the public finances.

Philip Hammond’s funereal demeanour suited a man with few rabbits in his hatThe chancellor brings the air of an undertaker to the despatch box. His suits are dark, his expression glum and his sense of humour, although unexpectedly sharp, is deployed only sparingly. This is a chancellor for hard times, and in his unshowy way, hard times are what he predicted.This chancellor is the antithesis of his predecessor George Osborne and so was his autumn statement. The only rabbit pulled from Philip Hammond’s topper was that the number of opportunities for rabbit pulling – what the Treasury calls fiscal events – is to be cut from two to one. This was Hammond’s first autumn statement, and it is to be his last.Related: Philip Hammond admits Brexit vote means £122bn extra borrowingRelated: Autumn statement: brill for builders, perturbing for pensionersRelated: Hammond warned against Brexit and no one listened. Now it's payback Continue reading...

Philip Hammond’s autumn statement nod to Britain’s ‘central long-term’ challenge echoes Gordon Brown’s words 19 years ago“The first challenge is to increase our productivity. Britain today is some 20% less productive than our main competitors and has been for years.”Not the words of Philip Hammond in his autumn statement but those of Gordon Brown in his pre-Budget report 19 years ago.Related: Philip Hammond admits Brexit vote means £122bn extra borrowing Continue reading...

Trade and Brexit departments and Foreign Office to receive funds amid criticism that Whitehall is understaffed and ‘cannot cope’Philip Hammond has set aside up to £412m of additional funding to help Whitehall deal with leaving the European Union following criticisms that the civil service cannot cope with Brexit.The chancellor’s autumn statement said that the Department for Exiting the EU, or Dexeu, will receive £51m this financial year and an extra £94m from 2017/2018 until the UK’s exit is complete.Related: Autumn statement: OBR says Brexit impact could be even worse than feared - liveRelated: Philip Hammond admits Brexit vote means £122bn extra borrowing Continue reading...

Investment fund of £23bn announced in autumn statement must be quickly translated into action, CBI head saysBusiness leaders have told the government it must convert a new £23bn productivity investment fund into “tarmac, tracks and telecoms” rapidly if it wants to boost Britain’s lagging productivity and economic growth.The private sector has become increasingly frustrated at a string of unfulfilled pledges by the government – primarily by the former chancellor George Osborne – to step up investment in British infrastructure.Related: Austerity, Brexit and 'Jams': readers react to the autumn statementRelated: Philip Hammond's autumn statement is a welcome reality check Continue reading...

New chancellor faces up to the UK’s deep-seated economic weaknesses now left exposed by the Brexit votePhilip Hammond’s message was stark and clear. The result of the EU referendum in June means the economy has arrived at a reality checkpoint. Deep-seated weaknesses will be exposed as the government negotiates a Brexit divorce between now and 2019.The chancellor was candid about Britain’s woefully poor productivity record. He admitted that infrastructure was deficient. There was no attempt to disguise the fact that there is a prosperity gap between London and other major cities.Related: At a glance: autumn statement – 26 key pointsRelated: Autumn statement: OBR says Brexit impact could be even worse than feared - live Continue reading...

Philip Hammond gives his autumn statement in the House of Commons on Wednesday. Key points include lower growth forecasts, a £23bn national productivity investment fund, a housing white paper and the abolition of letting fees for tenants. The chancellor also said this would be his last autumn statement

Labour describes long-term economic plan as an abject failure after chancellor uses autumn statement to defer the balancing of the booksPhilip Hammond has admitted that the Brexit vote’s blow to the economy would force the government to borrow £122bn more than hoped as he pushed back government plans to balance the books in his autumn statement.In the government’s first major economic announcement since the vote in June to leave the EU, the new chancellor said the economy was faring well in the wake of the referendum result but growth would slow markedly next year on the back of weaker business spending and a squeeze on household budgets from rising living costs.Related: Key points of the autumn statement – at a glanceRelated: Autumn Statement 2016: Hammond unveils £122bn Brexit black hole - live Continue reading...

The chancellor, Philip Hammond, tells the House of Commons on Wednesday that he will be abolishing the autumn statement. MPs laughed at this announcement because they expect two budgets next year. Gordon Brown introduced the autumn statement in its 21st century form

Our writers give their reaction to chancellor Philip Hammond’s first autumn statementRelated: Autumn Statement 2016: Hammond unveils £122bn Brexit black hole - liveRelated: Philip Hammond admits Brexit vote means £122bn extra borrowingRelated: Key points of the autumn statement – at a glance Continue reading...

Philip Hammond has delivered his first autumn statement as chancellor. These are the key points, with political analysis

The failure to get to grips with our crises, by all mainstream political parties, is likely to lead to a war between the major powers in my lifetimeWave the magic wand and the problem goes away. Those pesky pollution laws, carbon caps and clean-power plans: swish them away and the golden age of blue-collar employment will return. This is Donald Trump’s promise, in his video message on Monday, in which the US president-elect claimed that unleashing coal and fracking would create “many millions of high-paid jobs”. He will tear down everything to make it come true.But it won’t come true. Even if we ripped the world to pieces in the search for full employment, leaving no mountain unturned, we would not find it. Instead, we would merely jeopardise the prosperity – and the lives – of people everywhere. However slavishly governments grovel to corporate Luddism, they will not bring the smog economy back.Related: 'Extraordinarily hot' Arctic temperatures alarm scientistsEven if we ripped the world apart in the search for full employment, leaving no mountain unturned, we wouldn't find it Continue reading...

As the graphs and charts point out, Phillip Hammond does not have much scope for giveawaysThe UK chancellor, Philip Hammond, will deliver his maiden autumn statement against a backdrop of weaker growth prospects, rising inflation and a large deficit.Scope for headline giveaways will be limited but Hammond is likely to signalmeasures to help so-called Jams – those families who are “just about managing”. Here are five key charts to consider before he stands up. Continue reading...

The chancellor unveils his choicest jams for the Jams, but they will be dwarfed by his giant cutsOn any other day, the raft of measures announced by Philip Hammond just after midnight would not be a mere teaser for this afternoon’s autumn statement: they would be the main event itself. A ban on letting-agent fees; an above-inflation jump in the minimum wage; an extra billion for new homes; more cash for families claiming universal credit: any one of these policies would be natural fodder for the front page. Yet here they are all bundled together on one Treasury press release with a few more stocking-fillers for good measure. These follow briefings about an extra billion for new roads, more money for research and development and the latest attempt to roll out superfast broadband. One may wonder how Mr Hammond plans to surprise MPs this afternoon, beyond the revelation of an even bigger black hole in the public finances – caused by Britain leaving the EU, the economy growing slower and tax receipts plummeting. But those aren’t the sort of headlines any chancellor would relish.Nevertheless, this is an exceptional flow of news, especially considering that it comes from a chancellor who claims to dislike big autumn statements. So much for the new politics. In 1947, then-chancellor Hugh Dalton was heading into the chamber to deliver his budget when he blurted out details to an evening paper reporter, on the assumption (it is often said) that it was too late to go to press. The list – “No more on tobacco; a penny on beer; something on dogs and pools but not on horses” and so on – was being sold on the streets 20 minutes before Mr Dalton stood up to speak. Thus did Clement Attlee lose his chancellor. What was once a resigning matter is now considered news management. Continue reading...