Office for National Statistics says rise previously reported did not reflect how family incomes had changed in cash termsThe political debate in the UK about living standards has been given a fresh twist by new figures from the Office for National Statistics showing a decline in household incomes last year.The ONS said that a previously announced 2.5% rise in real, inflation-adjusted incomes in 2015 - the biggest increase since 2001 - had been the result of estimates of the non-cash benefits households receive from being owner occupiers.Related: Soaring pensions lift UK living standards to pre-recession levels Continue reading...

Interest rates kept at 0.5% as latest MPC minutes reveal significant concerns about effect on the economy of leaving the EUA vote to leave the EU could harm economic growth and have a serious impact on the pound and other UK assets, the Bank of England has said, as it took steps to prepare for June’s referendum.Minutes to the Bank’s latest policy meeting showed its nine-strong monetary policy committee voted unanimously to leave interest rates at their historic low of 0.5%. The committee said uncertainty ahead of what was expected to be a close EU vote appeared to be weighing on investment decisions, and policymakers said economic growth could slow as a result in the second quarter of the year. Continue reading...

Consumer goods giant says growth is weakening across emerging markets and negative in EuropeUnilever has said it is operating in a fragile consumer environment with deflation weighing on its performance in Europe and slowing growth in emerging markets.The consumer goods company behind well-known brands such as Persil, Marmite and PG Tips, said sales in Europe fell by 0.6% in the first quarter as the impact of eurozone deflation and aggressive price discounting took its toll. Continue reading...

UK chancellor George Osborne to tell IMF that 10m people a year could die without radical actionAntimicrobial resistance to antibiotics will present a greater danger to humankind than cancer by the middle of the century unless world leaders agree international action to tackle the threat, according to George Osborne.The British chancellor will tell a panel of experts at an IMF meeting in Washington that 10 million people a year could die across the world by 2050 – more than the number of people lost to cancer every year – without radical action. Continue reading...

From fruit stalls to petrol stations, war in the world’s youngest nation has caused businesses to falter, with dire repercussions for the populationOn a good day, people have to wait for hours to get fuel in Juba. Most of the time, however, petrol stations in South Sudan’s capital stand deserted amid a deepening currency crisis that has reduced imports to a trickle and sent prices through the roof.

Better-than-expected trade figures from China sent stock markets soaring across Europe, the US and Asia

Urgent action to sort out eurozone banks called for in financial stability report warning market turmoil may recurThe International Monetary Fund has highlighted risks of a new financial crisis, warning that global output could be cut by 4% over the next five years by a repeat of the market mayhem witnessed during the 2008-09 recession.The IMF used its half-yearly global financial stability report to call for urgent action on the problems of banks in the eurozone, a third of which it said faced “significant challenges” to be sustainably profitable.Related: IMF homes on the eurozone's weakest link: Italy Continue reading...

World’s biggest privately owned coal company was caught out by slump in prices but the fuel remains popular in AsiaThe collapse of the biggest privately owned coal company in the world is a significant event. But it is not the end of the coal era, however much those of us who value the planet might like to see that.Peabody Energy has been felled predominantly by a 75% slump in coal prices rather than tightening environmental regulation, though it will emerge out of bankruptcy protection to a world where coal will never again be king.Related: World's largest coal producer files for bankruptcy protection Continue reading...

Bad loans in Italy account for more than a third of the €900bn total of non-performing loans on the books of eurozone banksWhen financial regulators say the European banking system is safe from another major crash they are talking about the funds banks can use to offset their losses.The 31 biggest banks hold an aggregate €1tn (£700bn) of shareholder funds, and account for about 75% of the European banking system by assets. Across all banks, it’s fair to say the total equity reaches €1.35tn.Related: IMF warns of fresh financial crisis Continue reading...

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development says official development assistance rose nearly 7% to $131bn last yearA doubling of spending on refugees led to an increase in aid spending by the world’s richest countries in 2015, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development has announced.The OECD’s annual update on development assistance showed that aid budgets totalled $131.6bn (£92bn) last year – a 6.9% increase on 2014.Related: Big aid donors failing to lift the lid on how they spend their cash Continue reading...

Former foreign secretary shows his passion for Britain and the EU, despite having left them for New York at the first opportunity“This is my starting point,” David Miliband declared, 12 minutes into a speech on why Britain should remain in the EU. It was said without the hint of a smile. In some politicians, the deadpan is used for comedic effect. For Miliband, it is his default position. Reaching your starting point via several dozen extended parentheses is par for the course for the former foreign secretary.It still wasn’t entirely clear if this was Miliband’s actual starting point or just a pre-qualifying starting point, but the point he seemed to be trying to make was that the remain campaign had so far been soulless and prosaic, and he had come to inject some much-needed passion and patriotism into the cause. That he was best known as a rather dull technocrat, rather than a charismatic, conviction politician, seemed to have escaped him. As had the irony of a man who stropped off to New York when he lost the Labour leadership contest coming back to the UK to lecture the Brits on patriotism. Continue reading...

Exit from EU ‘could do severe regional and global damage’ by disrupting trade relationships, says International Monetary FundA British vote to leave the EU risks causing severe economic and political damage to Europe and will spill over into to weaken an already febrile world economy, according to the International Monetary Fund.The IMF listed a potential Brexit vote in June’s EU referendum as a key risk in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) triggering an immediate political reaction in the UK with Brexit campaigners accused the international institution of talking Britain down.Related: From boom to doom – the IMF paints a vastly different picture from 2006Related: Brexit would be political arson, says David Miliband Continue reading...

Money was spread across 171 transactions in 42 states, with New York City being the largest recipient, according to the National Committee on US-China RelationsChinese investment in the US has increased rapidly to more than $15bn, according to the National Committee on US-China Relations. The new record, set at the same time economic growth in China slowed to a 25-year low of 6.9%, is likely to be beaten again in 2016, according to the report.The $15bn was spread across a mere 171 transactions in 42 states, with New York City being by far the largest recipient – $5.2bn in Chinese investment came to the country’s largest city in 2015.Related: IMF cuts global forecasts; UK inflation hits 15-month high – business live Continue reading...

Ten years ago, the World Economic Outlook forecast good times for ever – now deep pessimism reigns, with a possible Brexit only the most immediate threatCast your mind back 10 years. It is April 2006 and finance ministers from around the world are gathering in Washington for the spring meeting of the International Monetary Fund. Gordon Brown is Britain’s chancellor of the exchequer. Alan Greenspan has just retired as the chairman of the Federal Reserve and is considered to be the greatest central banker who ever lived. The blossom is out and the mood is upbeat. The global economy is having its fastest burst of prolonged growth since the early 1970s.A lot has changed since. The venue is the same. The occasion is the same. But the atmosphere is completely different. Back in 2006, the IMF saw no reason why the boom could not go on for ever. Its flagship half-yearly World Economic Outlook expected activity to keep humming along. It saw no sub-prime crisis, no collapse of Lehman Brothers, no Great Recession.Related: IMF says Britain leaving the EU is a significant risk Continue reading...

Air travel, hotels and restaurants pushed up cost of living up in MarchInflation jumped to 0.5% in the year to March after a rise in the cost of air fares over Easter and more expensive spring and summer clothing ranges hitting stores.The higher cost of booking a hotel and restaurant table also pushed inflation beyond the 0.3% seen in February, according to official figures.

British Retail Consortium says like-for-like sales fell 0.7% from last year, raising fears that economic recovery is losing steamBritish retailers saw sales drop last month as unsettled weather hit demand for clothes while takings at grocers were hurt by lower food prices and Easter closures, industry figures show.The British Retail Consortium (BRC) said like-for-like sales fell 0.7% in March on a year earlier, the biggest drop since last August. Sales were flat on a year ago in total terms, which does not adjust for the effect of new store openings. Continue reading...

Issue is back in the spotlight after massive leak, but Christine Lagarde warned that a proposal by Oxfam to establish a UN global tax body faces obstaclesThe head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said it is time to “think outside the box” on global tax but warned that a proposal by Oxfam to establish a UN global tax body faces huge obstacles.The British-based charity first put the idea forward last year, arguing that powerful countries write the rules on tax and take advantage of loopholes and offshore tax havens. It suggested that an independent entity could give everyone – rich and poor – an equal say. Continue reading...

Labour MEPs share many of the concerns expressed by Lord Owen about the potential threat to the NHS (Brexit is necessary to protect NHS from TTIP, says David Owen, theguardian.com, 6 April) and our public services, and have already taken action to ensure that negotiators address them in any EU-US TTIP trade deal.The European parliament has a veto on all EU trade deals. Labour MEPs have taken a strong stand against the investor state dispute settlement (ISDS), in which multinationals can sue governments in separate investment courts, and are pushing for a full and comprehensive exclusion of all public services in the TTIP negotiations. The very concerns Lord Owen raises have already been addressed by MEPs and are now being considered by the negotiators.Related: Panama Papers: Act now. Don't wait for another crisis | Thomas Piketty Continue reading...

The settlement holds the bank accountable for its ‘serious misconduct’ in falsely assuring investors that securities it sold were backed by sound mortgagesGoldman Sachs will pay $5.06bn for its role in the 2008 financial crisis, the US Department of Justice said on Monday. The settlement, over the sale of mortgage-backed securities from 2005 to 2007, was first announced in January.Related: Goldman Sachs profit drops after $5bn mortgage-backed bond settlementRelated: Morgan Stanley to pay $3.2bn over mortgage-backed securities Continue reading...

Lending forecast at £25bn for 2016 as developing countries struggle to cope with weakening global economyDemand for loans from the World Bank has reached levels unsurpassed outside of financial crises as developing countries struggle to cope with the weakness of the global economy.Ahead of its half-yearly spring meeting in Washington later this week, the Bank said it expected to lend more than $150bn (£105bn) in the four years from 2013 – a period when global economic activity repeatedly failed to match expectations.Related: IMF expected to cut growth forecasts in latest outlook Continue reading...

Update likely to reprise warnings about emerging markets slowdown, China’s downturn and lower commodity pricesThe International Monetary Fund will sound fresh alarm over the state of the global economy this week when it reveals its latest forecasts for growth against a backdrop of slower world trade and jittery financial markets.The expected warning over risks to financial stability and economic growth will underscore fears in the UK that its own economy has slowed in recent months, unable to shake off global pressures. A report from the British Chambers of Commerce on Monday points to low business confidence and a weaker sales performance across UK manufacturing and services companies.Related: IMF expected to cut growth forecasts in latest outlook Continue reading...

Activists and some African countries fear big corporations and the OECD club of rich nations are not going to fix the tax system any time soonThe Panama Papers have pulled back the curtain, revealing how tax wizards push and pull the levers of the global system to benefit elites. The fact that tax havens and offshore accounts are used by powerful individuals and corporations to wriggle out of tax obligations is no surprise; some developing countries and activists have long called for reforms, and their fight is gaining momentum.Poor countries lose huge sums of money every year – more than $100bn (£70bn) in corporate tax alone – because of discrepancies in the global tax system. They say a worldwide shift in how and where tax policies are decided is urgently needed. Continue reading...

Jubilee Debt Campaign warns that developing countries are struggling to make debt payments as revenues deteriorateThe collapse in global commodity prices and a stronger US dollar have depleted the public coffers of some of the world’s poorest countries and will leave them as much as $61bn (£43bn) worse off this year, a report has warned.

Leaving or remaining in the union is about politics, history and much more. Yet we keep on consulting economistsHouseholds in England can look forward to a 14-page booklet landing on their doormat this week, making the case for Britain’s remaining in the EU. Responding to criticism of the £9m publicity drive, which will eventually reach the whole of the UK, the government said a survey had shown that 85% of people wanted more facts about the referendum.If it is facts we get, fair enough. Voters are being asked to decide on something that until recently they knew little about, and probably cared even less. Now, with less than three months to go to the poll, it’s little surprise people want a crash course in the pros and cons of EU membership. Understandably, many simply want to know whether they will be better or worse off if we leave. Continue reading...

Financial secrecy represents a huge threat to the fragile global system, and we won’t solve the problem by politely asking tax havens to stop behaving badlyThe question of tax havens and financial opacity has been headline news for years now. Unfortunately, in this area there is a huge gap between the triumphant declarations of governments and the reality of what they actually do.

TUC finds young women earn on average only £8.50 an hour against £10 for men – a wider pay gap than for workers with academic qualificationsYoung women with vocational qualifications earn 15% less than their male peers, a significantly bigger pay gap than for those with academic qualifications, according to new research.Men aged between 22 and 30 with a vocational qualification above GCSE level earn on average £10 an hour, the Trades Union Congress (TUC) found in an analysis of official figures. Women with the same qualification level earn only £8.50 per hour.Related: The gender pay gap: how much would a feminist cupcake cost you? Continue reading...

The secretive wealth of public power has been exposed as never before. This poses a serious test for politicians, which Barack Obama passed but David Cameron failedSunlight, according to a cliche favoured by David Cameron, is the best disinfectant. Well, this week, the comparison might instead be with dangerously concentrated bleach. After a five-day outpouring of secrets from an obscure office in Panama, a prime minister is out in Reykavik, a president is on the ropes in Buenos Aires and the censors are putting in serious overtime in Beijing. A new regime in world football has been tainted with old-fashioned sleaze, Vladimir Putin has been moved to dismiss a paper trail linking his friends with billions of dubious dollars as a plot, and some big names from showbiz have discovered that they share a lawyer with the associates of gold bullion robbers.Considering a few of the stories that didn’t make the front pages – but could have done in any ordinary week – reaffirms the breathtaking volume of scandals that Mossack Fonseca kept discreetly under wraps. The lobbying and the tip-offs, for example, that HSBC provided to try and prevent the emerging Syrian war from separating President Bashar al-Assad’s cousin and intelligence chief, Rami Makhlouf, from his money. Then there were the disguised London property purchases and the hidden foundation planned for the daughters of Azerbaijan’s president, with the direct involvement of the minister of taxes in the latter scheme lending it a flavour of pre-revolutionary France. And don’t forget Petro Poroshenko, the Ukrainian president whose promise to “wipe the slate clean of business interests” was swallowed by the west, but who it transpires was – at the very hour of his troops’ gravest danger – concentrating instead on setting up offshore firms. Continue reading...

Japan’s currency has gained 12% against the dollar this year, increasing pressure on the Bank of Japan to take actionFears that Japan’s anti-deflation strategy is unravelling have intensified after a sharp rise in the value of the yen against the dollar prompted a concerted attempt by policymakers in Tokyo to talk down the value of the currency.Related: Japan's economic plan 'backfiring' as yen surges Continue reading...

Bernie Sanders’ and Donald Trump’s calls to cut free trade is not the way to reduce inequality in the US. Far better to improve the tax systemThe rise of anti-trade populism in the 2016 US election campaign portends a dangerous retreat from the United States’ role in world affairs. In the name of reducing US inequality, presidential candidates in both parties would stymie the aspirations of hundreds of millions of desperately poor people in the developing world to join the middle class. If the political appeal of anti-trade policies proves durable, it will mark a historic turning point in global economic affairs, one that bodes ill for the future of American leadership.Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has proposed slapping a 45% tax on Chinese imports into the US, a plan that appeals to many Americans who believe that China is getting rich from unfair trade practices. But, for all its extraordinary success in recent decades, China remains a developing country where a significant share of the population live at a level of poverty unimaginable by western standards.Related: Central banks are still the only game in town Continue reading...

Crude steel production falls to lowest since December 2008 while manufacturing output drops 1.8% year on yearA slump in manufacturing output and drop in steel production to a seven-year low have fanned fears that the UK economy is losing steam and becoming increasingly unbalanced.Official figures showed factory output fell by 1.1% in February, a much sharper decline than economists had been expecting. Even before the UK’s steel crisis escalated last month, crude steel production weakened in January and February and was the lowest for seven years, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.0.3% fall in total #production in February, within which #manufacturing fell 1.1% https://t.co/dIwo44lVx1 #GDPRelated: Surprise slump in UK manufacturing - business live Continue reading...

How do we measure inequality? From some angles, things appear to be improving, but from others the situation is getting worse and worseIt’s familiar news by now. Oxfam’s figures have gone viral: the richest 1% now have more wealth than the rest of the world’s population combined. Global inequality is worse than at any time since the 19 century.For most people, this is all they know about global inequality. But Oxfam’s wealth figures don’t quite tell the whole story. What about income inequality? And – more importantly – what about inequalities between countries? If we expand our view beyond the usual metrics, we can learn a lot more about how unequal our world has become.

The currency hit a fresh high of 107.6 against the dollar, threatening government hopes of stronger growth and raising prospect of forex interventionJapan’s finance minister Taro Aso has ratcheted up the warning against a rapid rise in the yen as the country’s ultra-dovish monetary policy implodes and threatens to condemn the economy to continued stagnation.Related: Helicopter money is closer than you think Continue reading...

The world’s biggest provider of public finance to developing countries will refocus its financing efforts towards tackling climate change, group saidThe World Bank has made a “fundamental shift” in its role of alleviating global poverty, by refocusing its financing efforts towards tackling climate change, the group said on Thursday.The world’s biggest provider of public finance to developing countries said it would spend 28% of its investments directly on climate change projects, and that all of its future spending would take account of global warming. Continue reading...

Cutting prices on clothes is a good start for Marks & Spencer’s new chief executive but lots of hard work lies aheadThere is a secret to being the new broom in a company that has been struggling: dissociate yourself from past failures as fast as you can.In that respect, Steve Rowe has got off to the best possible start as the chief executive of Marks & Spencer. His comment that the performance of the key clothing division had been “unsatisfactory” is the sort of breezy honesty that works well when it is your first day in the job. Particularly when it has the merit of being true. Continue reading...

Extra consumer spending could kickstart economic recovery – in a perfect worldImagine that the world economy takes a turn for the worse and slips back into recession. Central banks double down on their quantitative easing programmes. That doesn’t boost growth or bring an end to deflation. They push interest rates deep into negative territory. That doesn’t work either.At this point, politicians opt for the helicopter money approach. That’s where central banks print money so finance ministries can hand it out to citizens in the hope that they will spend the unexpected windfall. Continue reading...

Biggest fall in productivity since financial crisis puts pressure on chancellor to prove plan to increase output can workA sharp drop in British productivity has cast further doubt over the country’s economic prospects and will add to pressure on the government to prove its productivity plan can bear fruit.Official figures show labour productivity, as measured by output per hour, fell by 1.2% in the fourth quarter of 2015 from the third quarter, the biggest fall since the financial crisis in 2008. Continue reading...

People ridiculed the Luddites for opposing technological change that ultimately created new work. Today’s economic indicators don’t offer that hopeIf you put water on the stove and heat it up, it will at first just get hotter and hotter. You may then conclude that heating water results only in hotter water. But at some point everything changes – the water starts to boil, turning from hot liquid into steam. Physicists call this a “phase transition”.Automation, driven by technological progress, has been increasing inexorably for the past several decades. Two schools of economic thinking have for many years been engaged in a debate about the potential effects of automation on jobs, employment and human activity: will new technology spawn mass unemployment, as the robots take jobs away from humans? Or will the jobs robots take over release or unveil – or even create – demand for new human jobs?Smart machines now collect our highway tolls, check us out at stores, take our blood pressure, massage our backs, give us directions, answer our phones, print our documents, transmit our messages, rock our babies, read our books, turn on our lights, shine our shoes, guard our homes, fly our planes, write our wills, teach our children, kill our enemies, and the list goes on.For several decades after World War II the economic statistics we care most about all rose together here in America as if they were tightly coupled. GDP grew, and so did productivity – our ability to get more output from each worker. At the same time, we created millions of jobs, and many of these were the kinds of jobs that allowed the average American worker, who didn’t (and still doesn’t) have a college degree, to enjoy a high and rising standard of living. But … productivity growth and employment growth started to become decoupled from each other. Continue reading...

Minutes from the meeting in which Fed voted to leave its rate unchanged showed some argued for ‘caution’ while others expressed concern over waitFederal Reserve policymakers were split at their last meeting over how to respond to a slowing global economy, with two officials supporting a rate hike in March even as an opposing group felt that even raising rates in April would be too soon.Minutes of the Fed’s 15-16 March meeting released Wednesday showed that several participants argued for “proceeding cautiously” with future rate hikes because of global risks such as weaker growth in China. This group said that even raising rates in April “would signal a sense of urgency they did not think appropriate”.Related: Fed officials hint at interest rate hikes but Janet Yellen urges caution Continue reading...

$160bn tie-up with Allergan, which would have been world’s biggest pharmaceutical deal, scuppered by US tax crackdownBarack Obama’s derailment of Pfizer’s $160bn (£114bn) merger with Allergan sparked immediate speculation on Wednesday that the US drugs company would turn its attention to another big pharmaceutical takeover.

Reforms include higher public spending to help the jobless find work, cutting benefits to encourage the jobless to take low-paid work and cutting taxesThe protracted weakness of the global economy has highlighted the need for lower taxes on employment and higher public spending to get the unemployed back into work, the International Monetary Fund has said.Expressing concern about sluggish growth in the west since the 2008-09 downturn, the Washington-based IMF said it was time for ultra-low interest rates and quantitative easing to be accompanied by a range of structural reforms. Continue reading...

Non-food prices drop by 2.6% year-on-year as retailers continue to respond to market conditions with bargains and promotionsConsumers have benefited from three years of continuously falling shop prices on non-food goods, according to the latest data from retailers.Excluding food, prices fell 2.6% in March from a year earlier, according to the BRC-Nielsen shop price index. Continue reading...

Falling oil prices, mounting concern over a possible UK exit from the EU and the IMF chief’s warning about faltering growth fuel jittersStock markets across Europe have fallen following weaker than expected economic indicators, falling oil prices, and a warning from the International Monetary Fund stoked fears of a slowing global recovery.All major European markets fell, with the FTSE 100 in London closing down 1.2% or 73 points at 6091.23, after new data indicated global economic uncertainty and concern over the EU referendum weighed on Britain’s services sector in March, in the latest sign that the UK recovery is losing momentum. Continue reading...

Dominic Grieve seems extraordinarily perplexed about the economy and people of the British Virgin Islands (David Cameron must come clean on tax, says Jeremy Corbyn, theguardian.com, 5 April). What about the economy and people of south Wales? Are we all equally perplexed about destroying the livelihoods of its inhabitants? Of course, how silly of me, self-evidently it’s harder for a handful of service sector workers in a Caribbean enclave to reinvent themselves successfully in another guise – as clergymen, perhaps – than it is for 15,000 industrial workers (and 25,000 more in the wider community) here in the UK. And after all, look how easy it proved to be for mining communities the length and breadth of the country back in the 80s.