Kicking the can down the road with an ‘extend and pretend’ approach to high debt simply makes matters worse. And it seldom works in the long runOnce again, Greece is at an inflection point. With its cash balances severely stressed, it seems unlikely to be able to meet the cascading debt payments falling due over the next few months. So yet another round of contentious and protracted discussions with its creditors is underway – one that may well produce yet another short-term solution. Yet kicking the can down the road is hardly the negotiators’ only option. Indeed, it is the wrong approach.

Women in informal work around the world are setting up unions and networks to create more security. NGO Wiego worked with Getty Images and the Hewlett Foundation to capture them

Katharine Round’s documentary, inspired by The Spirit Level, is a short, sharp shock about the failings of free-market economicsThere is a certain type of pundit who will elaborately explain that he believes in equality of opportunity, not equality of outcome – but is in reality deeply uninterested in both. It is perfectly natural for the self-made businessmen and bootstrap entrepreneurs to feel that their grinding hard work entitles them to hard-won privileges, like unequal opportunities for their children.Related: ‘Why aren’t we earning enough to live?’ – how The Divide lays bare global inequality Continue reading...

Crisis returns to Greece as unemployment reaches 30% and debt repayment deadlines loomThe Hilton hotel in Athens makes the perfect backdrop for high-intensity talks. Its ambience is subdued, its corridors hushed, its meeting rooms an oasis of tranquility.When Greece, in one of its many stand-offs with the international creditors keeping it afloat, finally won the right to conduct negotiations outside the confines of government offices, it seemed only natural that they should be held at the hotel. Continue reading...

Former Labour PM enters debate, attacks negative tone of remain campaign and says UK should be leading Europe not leaving itGordon Brown has waded into the European Union referendum debate, calling on the remain camp to make a more positive case for staying in.Implicitly criticising the negative tone of those campaigning to keep Britain in the EU, the former Labour prime minister and MP said he wanted to make a “positive, principled, patriotic case” for a continuation of Britain’s 43-year-old links with the bloc.

Bank holds eurozone interest rates at zero as chief goes on attack after complaints about impact of policies on GermanyThe European Central Bank president has launched a robust defence of the institution’s independence after criticism from Germany that rock-bottom euro interest rates are hurting savers and fuelling rightwing nationalism.Mario Draghi used his latest press conference on Thursday to counter an attack from Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, who had said record low rates were causing “extraordinary problems” for German banks and pensioners and risked fuelling the rise of Eurosceptics in Germany. Continue reading...

Simon Jenkins, Polly Toynbee and Larry Elliott join Tom Clark to discuss the economic consequences of Britain leaving the European Union. Plus Suzanne Goldenberg in New York takes stock of the US presidential raceGeorge Osborne launched a 200-page projection of what Britain’s economy would look like outside of the European Union this week and his analysis was damning: anyone who thinks that leaving the EU would be beneficial is “economically illiterate”.But how robust are his figures? And can the pros and cons of Brexit really be boiled down to an average household loss of £4300 by 2030? Continue reading...

The slowing economy will mean fewer tax receipts but more speculation on whether spending cuts or tax rises are needed to reach a 2020 budget surplusEarlier this week the Treasury made some confident projections about what the economy would look like in 2030 in the event of a vote to leave the EU in June’s referendum. The hazards of forecasting even one month ahead have now been illustrated.At the time of the budget, the number crunchers at the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said they expected the UK to have to borrow £72.2bn to balance the books in 2015-16. The actual deficit turned out to be £74bn.Related: UK misses borrowing target by £1.8bn Continue reading...

Catalyst housing association has a bigger net surplus than Greggs or Foxtons, so why are staff facing job losses and unmanageable workloads?On Thursday 21 April, neighbourhood managers at Catalyst Housing start a work to rule industrial action. They say their current workloads are unmanageable, while management plan to halve the number of staff doing the job. Catalyst refuses to recognise the union, and normal negotiations have not taken place.Last week’s Guardian survey of housing workers showing that 40% of housing professionals say their workloads are unmanageable following cuts struck a chord with Unite members across the housing sector. Cuts are having a serious impact on the wellbeing of staff and tenants and are damaging important services.Related: Housing staff face 'unmanageable' workloads - poll Continue reading...

The economist warned against the potentially disastrous weaknesses of our global financial system. It’s not too late to pay him heed now

Gerge Osborne misses forecast as cash-strapped councils dip into reserves and raise debt to fund spending shortfallBritain borrowed more than expected in the last financial year as local councils sought to fill the gap created by deep budget cuts by dipping into reserves and increasing their debts.Local authorities borrowed £6bn, more than £4bn higher than the previous 12 months, offsetting bumper tax receipts and a clampdown on central government spending.Related: Borrowing likely to be higher than last financial year, ONS figures show Continue reading...

Official figures show retail sales volumes down 1.3% in March, fanning fears that UK economy has lost momentumBritain’s retailers have been hit by a sharp drop in sales as shoppers cut back on food and clothes in the latest sign households are nervous about the economic outlook.The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said retail sales volumes decreased 1.3% last month, a much sharper drop than the 0.1% dip forecast by economists in a Reuters poll. Sales were up 2.7% on the year, well below forecasts for 4.4% growth.Retail sales increase 2.7% in Mar 16 compared with Mar 15, but down 1.3% on Feb 16 https://t.co/3a048CPDVG Continue reading...

While both pro- and anti-EU campaigns exaggerate their case, the facts suggest saying no to Brexit would be the better option … and the EUIn this, the 400th year since William Shakespeare’s death, the UK faces an existential question: to be or not to be “European”. When Britons vote in June on whether to remain in the European Union, making the right choice will require them to cut through the hyperbole on both sides of the debate and consider carefully what so-called “Brexit” would really mean for their country.The main issues that will shape voters’ decision relate to trade relations, regulation, and the budget; foreign policy and security; and domestic policies, such as welfare and immigration. Then there are questions about the substantive and emotional benefits and baggage that attend EU membership, with all of its rules, regulations, and bureaucrats. The choice is stark, but the questions at issue are not all black and white.Related: A British bridge to a divided Europe Continue reading...

Lee Kuan Yew’s vice-like grip on power helped create a byword for cleanliness, efficiency and safety. What lies beneath this ‘Disneyland with the death penalty’?

Aditya Chakrabortty is playing fast and loose with the lives of millions of students and potential students (What the great degree rip-off means for graduates: low pay and high debt, 19 April). His major animus is turned against David Willetts, but as a former Labour higher education minister and now university vice-chancellor, I equally take strong issue with his argument: in brief, that there is a grand conspiracy between the government and vice-chancellors to mis-sell students higher education courses.Firstly, we need to deal with this misnomer of graduate debt. You only repay if you are in work and earning over £21,000 a year, and if you have not repaid after 30 years the debt is written off. If you were to advertise those terms on the high street, people would rush to sign up. With this financial package, recruitment to university has risen across the board, and fastest among students from the most disadvantaged backgrounds. Continue reading...

Ian McCafferty says he has stopped calling for interest rate rise after being surprised by weak growth in payA Bank of England policymaker has admitted he got it wrong when predicting a significant pickup in wages, prompting him to abandon his call for a rise in interest rates.Ian McCafferty, who sits on the Bank’s rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee, started voting for rate hikes in August 2015. He was the only member of the nine-strong committee to do so. Continue reading...

Work and pensions secretary says figure of 1.7 million unemployed is signal that EU referendum uncertainty is hitting jobsThe threat of a potential vote to leave the EU in June could be partly to blame for the first rise in unemployment in seven months, the work and pensions secretary has warned.Stephen Crabb said the latest labour report, which showed the unemployment total rose by 21,000 in the three months to February to 1.7 million, was a signal that the looming EU referendum vote was hitting the jobs market.Related: Job market catches up with the real UK economyRelated: Brexit would damage startup businesses, say entrepreneurs Continue reading...

A survey of 1,300 local and expat workers found a wage gap that ranges from 400-900% and causes significant resentment among local workersImagine finding out that your colleagues earn five times more than you. Not only that, but they get all sorts of benefits you’re not eligible for.They take a month of leave; you get 12 days. Your employer pays for their accommodation, health insurance and even their children’s school fees; you don’t get any of that.Related: Secret aid worker: Why do expats earn more than the rest of us? Continue reading...

‘We are reaching the limits of monetary policy,’ Reserve Bank governor says, urging governments to do moreThe Reserve Bank governor, Glenn Stevens, has warned that the inability of governments and central banks to lift global growth prospects is the “biggest vulnerability” facing the world’s financial system today.He says global growth must be Australia’s focus but the country also needs to realise that central banks are running out of firepower and government policies must start carrying more of the burden.Related: IMF has to act, not just talk, to jumpstart global economic growthRelated: Interest rate cuts: talk is cheap, Glenn Stevens may soon have to act | Greg Jericho Continue reading...

Institute for Fiscal Studies warns about accumulation of wealth by top 1% and says HMRC proposals to stop collecting data would create misleading pictureProposals by the UK government to stop collecting information showing how the wealthy pass on their assets from one generation to another have been condemned by the Institute for Fiscal Studies, a leading tax and spending thinktank.The IFS said Britain was in danger of allowing a misleading picture to emerge of its richest families, the top 1% whose wealth is at least £1.4m including the value of their home, that underestimates their wealth. Continue reading...

The Bank of England governor tells the Lords that ‘extended uncertainty’ and an economic slowdown could follow a vote to leave the EU

Shares, gold and oil rally, but market turbulence has hurt Goldman; Bank governor discusses Brexit, interest rates

The 1970s study which predicted civilisation would collapse some time this century was wrong on resources, but right on pollutionForty-four years ago, the size of the global economy was £20tn in today’s prices. In 2014 it was £55.18tn. It’s certainly been a rocky road at times, but the trend of economic growth has been robust. Only four years over this period have shown a contraction of economic output.Consequently, one should feel foolish for suggesting that there are not only limits to growth, but that such limits are already affecting the global economy. That’s one evaluation of the book Limits to Growth, which was published in 1972 and contained the central, controversial conclusion that the seemingly never-ending increase in population, industrial output, food production, and resource use would rapidly unravel at some point around the middle of the 21st century. Continue reading...

Created in 1959 to lure foreign investors with tax breaks, the Shannon Free Zone proved revolutionary across the world. But in today’s world of looser trade and tax havens, Ireland’s innovators face an uphill battle to stay relevant

£4,300 lost to each household and £36bn black hole in tax receipts – but how did the Treasury work out its claims?The headline figure that George Osborne will want voters to take away from the Treasury’s Brexit analysis, published on Monday, is £4,300 – the long-term loss to the economy per household from a vote to leave the EU, it claims.

No breakthrough at gathering of 34 nations as Chinese state news agency says it is ‘lame and lazy’ to blame crisis on ChinaThe world’s largest steel-producing nations failed to make a breakthrough on the oversupply problem that has thrown the industry into crisis, at a meeting in Brussels.Ministers from 34 countries, representing 93% of global steel production, attended Monday’s talks, on the day the Chinese state news agency said it was “lame and lazy” to blame China for the problem.

Iran wants OPEC members to keep talking, despite Sunday’s failed talks, but won’t impose new sanctions on itself

A negotiated bilateral trade agreement like Canada’s would leave British households £4,300 worse off a year, it saysThe Treasury has published its analysis of what it thinks would happen to the UK economy in the event of a vote to leave the EU in June’s referendum.Here are the key points: Continue reading...

Treasury analysis of Brexit implications includes claims about impact on growth and households, but do they stack up?The Treasury has published an analysis (pdf) of the implications of Britain leaving the EU and concluded that the economy would be 6% smaller by 2030, costing each household £4,300. But how did the chancellor, George Osborne, come to this conclusion and do the numbers stack up?Related: Would Brexit really force up your mortgage rate? Continue reading...

Andrea Leadsom says government should provide both sides of story if it wants people to have truly free voteA Conservative minister has accused the Treasury of publishing a deeply “unfair and biased” analysis of the impact of Britain leaving the EU, arguing that the government ought to provide both sides of the story if it wants British voters to have a truly free vote.Andrea Leadsom, the energy minister, told the Guardian that remain supporters were talking down the economy in an unpatriotic way. Continue reading...

In none of the economies attempting the unorthodox experiment of negative interest rates has there been a return to growth and full employmentI wrote at the beginning of January that economic conditions this year were set to be as weak as in 2015, which was the worst year since the global financial crisis erupted in 2008. And, as has happened repeatedly over the last decade, a few months into the year, others’ more optimistic forecasts are being revised downward.The underlying problem – which has plagued the global economy since the crisis, but has worsened slightly – is lack of global aggregate demand. Now, in response, the European Central Bank (ECB) has stepped up its stimulus, joining the Bank of Japan and a couple of other central banks in showing that the “zero lower bound” – the inability of interest rates to become negative – is a boundary only in the imagination of conventional economists.Related: Negative interest rates: what you need to knowRelated: ECB launches bold measures including negative interest rate to boost eurozoneRelated: Bank of Japan launches negative interest rates Continue reading...

Fund’s steering committee calls for more forceful stimulus and warns monetary policy alone is not enoughThe International Monetary Fund’s steering committee has urged member countries to boost “growth-friendly” spending to help deal with slowing global growth.The IMF managing director, Christine Lagarde, said that calmer markets since February had reduced the stress level at the IMF and World Bank spring meetings, but the outlook was still fraught with downside risks from weak demand, a potential UK exit from the European Union and low oil and commodity prices.Related: The bad smell hovering over the global economy Continue reading...

Attempts at economic stimulus have left a bad smell. Central banks are starting to think the unthinkable – helicopter moneyAll is calm. All is still. Share prices are going up. Oil prices are rising. China has stabilised. The eurozone is over the worst. After a panicky start to 2016, investors have decided that things aren’t so bad after all.Put your ear to the ground though, and it is possible to hear the blades whirring. Far away, preparations are being made for helicopter drops of money onto the global economy. With due honour to one of Humphrey Bogart’s many great lines from Casablanca: “Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow but soon.”Related: Helicopter money is closer than you think Continue reading...

Chancellor says that the cost of home loans is likely to rise if voters decide to leave EU in 23 June referendumGeorge Osborne has issued a stark warning that mortgage rates will rise if Britain leaves the European Union.The chancellor said he thought it was likely interest rates, and therefore the cost of home loans, would rise if Britons vote to leave the EU in the referendum on 23 June. But Brexit campaigners accused Osborne of panicking and resorting to intimidating voters.Related: Alistair Darling: Brexit would risk collapse of confidence in UK economyRelated: Bank of England stages Brexit dress rehearsal Continue reading...

Michael Saunders believes that even a referendum vote to quit the EU would not alter his view that interest rates are on an upward pathMichael Saunders has a reputation as a hawk, who in recent years believed the economy to be in rude health and in need of higher interest rates to suppress inflationary pressures.Last year he argued that the Bank of England’s outlook for growth and inflation was overly gloomy and interest rate rises would arrive sooner than the monetary policy committee (MPC) forecast. The year before he said much the same.Related: Bank of England appoints Michael Saunders to MPC Continue reading...

Citigroup economist will replace Martin Weale on the monetary policy committeeMichael Saunders, an economist at the investment bank Citigroup, has been appointed to the Bank of England’s interest rate setting committee.Saunders, a respected commentator on economics after more than 25 years at Citigroup, will replace Martin Weale whose term on the monetary policy committee (MPC) ends in August. Weale joined the nine-strong committee in 2010 having previously headed the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.Michael Saunders appointed as external member of Monetary Policy Committee@bankofengland https://t.co/y6pdT07D1W pic.twitter.com/FaVCTgwWRgPleased to appoint Michael Saunders to Bank’s MPC – an economist with a wealth of experience on UK + global economy https://t.co/5IElFQ1xiBBank of England welcomes the appointment of Michael Saunders to the Monetary Policy Committee https://t.co/aA8hl2nWvn Continue reading...

Britain has much to fear from an acrimonious divorce, as it will inevitably be swept into its turbulent wakeThe European Union has never been very popular in Britain. It joined late, and its voters will be asked on 23 June whether they want to leave early. The referendum’s outcome will not be legally binding on the government; but it is inconceivable that Britain will stay if the public’s verdict is to quit.Over the years, the focus of the British debate about Europe has shifted. In the 1960s and 1970s, the question was whether Britain could afford not to join what was then the European Economic Community. The fear was that the UK would be shut out of the world’s fastest-growing market, and that its partnership with the US would be at risk as well: The western alliance would consist of two pillars, and Europe, not a shrunken Britain, would be one of them.Related: Will Obama’s Brexit intervention make a difference? | Simon Jenkins Continue reading...

Private housebuilding rose to its highest level since records began in 2010Housebuilding in Britain picked up to a record high in February but the rest of the construction sector struggled amid signs that uncertainty over the EU referendum and public spending cuts are denting activity, according to official figures.The Office for National Statistics said private housebuilding rose 3.9% from January, the fastest growth for 10 months and taking it to the highest level since records began in 2010. Continue reading...

George Osborne agrees to cooperate with France, Germany, Spain and Italy on exposing shell firms and overseas trusts

Begbies Traynor says number of firms in trouble rose by 20%, with concerns Brexit vote could tip companies over the edgeThe number of British manufacturers who are struggling financially has risen by 20%, with food and drinks companies hardest hit – despite the weak pound making UK exports cheaper abroad.Data from the insolvency firm Begbies Traynor showed that 21,061 UK manufacturers, many of which rely heavily on exporting, ended the first quarter of this year in a state of significant financial distress – 20% more than a year ago. Continue reading...

PwC report estimates 70,000-100,000 fewer jobs in 2020 compared with estimated number if Britain stays in EUUp to 100,000 financial services jobs could be lost if Britain votes to leave the European Union, according to a report compiled for a lobbying group that will stir debate about the short-term impact of Brexit.The report for TheCityUK by PricewaterhouseCoopers follows a warning from the accountancy firm in March that a British exit from the EU would cause a serious shock to the UK economy that could lead to 950,000 job losses.Related: Bank of England stages Brexit dress rehearsal Continue reading...

Institute of Directors urge oil giant not to ignore its shareholders, after almost 60% reject its pay plans

Christine Lagarde’s warnings of the impacts of Brexit are echoed by the World Bank head and the Bank of EnglandThe managing director of the International Monetary Fund has made an impassioned plea for Britain to stay in the EU, saying Brexit would spell the painful breakdown of a “long marriage” with grave risks for the global economy.Christine Lagarde said uncertainty created by the 23 June referendum was already dragging down the UK economy, and a decision to leave the bloc would make matters worse. Continue reading...

Juliette Garside, Holly Watt and Aditya Chakrabortty join Tom Clark to discuss a rash of politicians publishing their tax returns. Plus: Guttorm Schjelderup explains how Norway’s system of tax openness works in practiceIn the tax year of 2014-2015, George Osborne’s family firm paid him a dividend of over £40,000 while his savings earned him just £3 of interest. Meanwhile, Jeremy Corbyn’s tax return was handed in late and he had to pay a £100 fine. All this has become public knowledge after a rush at the top of British politics for tax transparency following the leak of documents from the Panamanian law firm Mossack Fonsesca.Joining Tom Clark to discuss it are Juliette Garside, Holly Watt and Aditya Chakrabortty.

In two months’ time the MPC may have to respond to a vote to leave the EU. First off, they would cut interest ratesIt is Tuesday 27 June, five days after Britain has voted to leave the European Union. The pound is falling on the foreign exchanges and share prices are tumbling. Deep inside Threadneedle Street, the nine members of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee have gathered for an emergency meeting.The result of the referendum has come as a surprise, intensifying the market turmoil. Polls had suggested a tight race but the assumption had been that the don’t knows would eventually opt for the status quo. The pollsters were wrong.Related: Bank of England warns Brexit could do serious harm to UK economy Continue reading...

My budget shows that leaving the EU would transform this country’s finances – in particular the NHS, disability benefits and the property marketI want to end austerity. Voters want prosperity, not austerity. It’s a sobering thought that the reductions in planned spending made by the coalition and the current government are not as big as the total sums we have sent to the EU and not received back over the same time period. If we leave the EU we will regain control of our own money. We could increase existing budgets and end the upcoming reductions.The sums involved are set out clearly in the 2015 government account of our contributions and the sums we receive back. Our total contribution is £19.5bn, minus a £5bn rebate, thanks to Margaret Thatcher’s renegotiation. We received £4.5bn back in payments to farmers, universities and other grant recipients form the EU, leaving £10bn of contributions that are spent elsewhere on the continent.We should make £1.1bn available to avoid the cuts to disability benefitsRelated: What would Brexit mean for everyday life in the UK? Continue reading...