Philip Hammond has delivered his first autumn statement as chancellor. These are the key points, with political analysis

The failure to get to grips with our crises, by all mainstream political parties, is likely to lead to a war between the major powers in my lifetimeWave the magic wand and the problem goes away. Those pesky pollution laws, carbon caps and clean-power plans: swish them away and the golden age of blue-collar employment will return. This is Donald Trump’s promise, in his video message on Monday, in which the US president-elect claimed that unleashing coal and fracking would create “many millions of high-paid jobs”. He will tear down everything to make it come true.But it won’t come true. Even if we ripped the world to pieces in the search for full employment, leaving no mountain unturned, we would not find it. Instead, we would merely jeopardise the prosperity – and the lives – of people everywhere. However slavishly governments grovel to corporate Luddism, they will not bring the smog economy back.Related: 'Extraordinarily hot' Arctic temperatures alarm scientistsEven if we ripped the world apart in the search for full employment, leaving no mountain unturned, we wouldn't find it Continue reading...

As the graphs and charts point out, Phillip Hammond does not have much scope for giveawaysThe UK chancellor, Philip Hammond, will deliver his maiden autumn statement against a backdrop of weaker growth prospects, rising inflation and a large deficit.Scope for headline giveaways will be limited but Hammond is likely to signalmeasures to help so-called Jams – those families who are “just about managing”. Here are five key charts to consider before he stands up. Continue reading...

The chancellor unveils his choicest jams for the Jams, but they will be dwarfed by his giant cutsOn any other day, the raft of measures announced by Philip Hammond just after midnight would not be a mere teaser for this afternoon’s autumn statement: they would be the main event itself. A ban on letting-agent fees; an above-inflation jump in the minimum wage; an extra billion for new homes; more cash for families claiming universal credit: any one of these policies would be natural fodder for the front page. Yet here they are all bundled together on one Treasury press release with a few more stocking-fillers for good measure. These follow briefings about an extra billion for new roads, more money for research and development and the latest attempt to roll out superfast broadband. One may wonder how Mr Hammond plans to surprise MPs this afternoon, beyond the revelation of an even bigger black hole in the public finances – caused by Britain leaving the EU, the economy growing slower and tax receipts plummeting. But those aren’t the sort of headlines any chancellor would relish.Nevertheless, this is an exceptional flow of news, especially considering that it comes from a chancellor who claims to dislike big autumn statements. So much for the new politics. In 1947, then-chancellor Hugh Dalton was heading into the chamber to deliver his budget when he blurted out details to an evening paper reporter, on the assumption (it is often said) that it was too late to go to press. The list – “No more on tobacco; a penny on beer; something on dogs and pools but not on horses” and so on – was being sold on the streets 20 minutes before Mr Dalton stood up to speak. Thus did Clement Attlee lose his chancellor. What was once a resigning matter is now considered news management. Continue reading...

What Philip Hammond’s speech is likely to mean for the economy, personal finance, business and moreGDP Economic growth is slowing. A 2% forecast for next year is expected to be revised down to nearer 1%.Related: Philip Hammond: a cautious, unflashy and quietly confident chancellor Continue reading...

How is “helping low-income families to save” a measure to help the “just about managing” (Hammond told to help families ‘just managing’, 18 November)? On a low income you don’t have money to save. With low savings rates, saving doesn’t confer much benefit. On a modestly good income when I was young, it was very difficult to save the amount recommended for my pension.Our politicians should have experience of the real world. Maybe we should raise the age to become an MP and insist on demonstrating experience of working in a public sector. Going from a privileged background, studying politics and then entering parliament is not a recipe for a fairer society and understanding the problems of the disadvantaged. Continue reading...

The problem as you correctly identify in your editorial (22 November) is that the employee-director argument goes to the heart of what and whom a company is run for. Getting the right sort of answer to that is vital to knowing how best to reform corporate governance. As you remind us, Lord Bullock in his report in the 1970s concluded that viewing a company as the exclusive property of shareholders is out of touch with the company as a complex social and economic entity. Nearly half a century on and we are still unable to face the implications of this argument.Britain is one of the only remaining large nations in Europe that has failed to recognise the importance of reforming corporate governance. But that needs more than a decision to appoint employee-directors. Little will change within the unitary or single board structures dominant in Anglo-American jurisdictions. The changes can only be realised within a structure of independent supervisory boards, supported by enforceable directors’ duties. Continue reading...

British government unlikely to hit this year’s deficit target despite cutting October’s borrowing by 25% to £4.8bn

How has the economy reacted to the vote to leave the EU on 23 June? Each month we look at key indicators to see what effect the Brexit process has on growth, prosperity and trade in the UK Continue reading...

Latest monthly Guardian analysis of data points to post-referendum economy holding up well. But will it last for 2017?• Help fund our journalism by becoming a Guardian supporterThe chancellor, Philip Hammond, has been given a boost ahead of his maiden autumn statement by a Guardian analysis showing the economy continues to confound gloomy forecasts for a post-referendum slump.

Two ex-members of the Bank of England interest rate-setting committee discuss what lies in store after the EU referendumDavid Blanchflower, professor of economics at Dartmouth College, New Hampshire, and former member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee (MPC) from June 2006 to May 2009The UK economy is slowing, there is no doubt about it. The incoming data so far though are mixed as it is early days post the Brexit vote. The PMIs were quite strong, suggesting GDP growth isn’t set to slow sharply in the fourth quarter of 2016 but 2017 is likely a different matter. Retail sales were also pretty good. Despite the boost from the fall in sterling, Britain’s trade deficit with the rest of the world widened unexpectedly in September. Inflation surprised to the downside but major price rises look to be in the pipeline as factory gate prices increased 0.6% in October compared with an increase of 0.3% in September.Related: The Brexit economy: remarkable resilience as spectre of inflation looms Continue reading...

He oversaw the Iraq war and calamitous financial deregulation, and did lucrative work for foreign tyrants. No wonder faith in the centre-left has evaporatedIf Tony Blair is the answer, then the question is high on illicit substances. He is reported to be launching an organisation to examine why the “centre left” has been overwhelmed by the forces of populism. It’s as though he’s a spectator, a passive commentator, a bystander, rather than a leading contributor to this age of political calamity. Someone who should be in the dock is electing himself chief prosecutor.Just consider this. In July, Tony Blair was damned by an official inquiry for his role in a war that cost the lives of hundreds of thousands of human beings, including 179 British service personnel, and which contributed to the rise of fanatical Islamist terrorism. That’s before we even mention Blair’s lucrative service for foreign tyrants. If normal rules applied to men of power, he would retire from active political life in disgrace. And yet, less than five months later, here he is, plotting a return to the frontline of politics. His career is like the T-1000 at the end of Terminator 2: it just will not die. If Blair wants material for his vanity project – “why are people so disillusioned with establishment politics?” – then how about starting with politicians who face no penalties for their colossal misdeeds, and continue to exert huge power and influence without any apparent shame or even penitence?Even before the Chilcot report was published, polls showed that more than half the population would never forgive himRelated: Tony Blair aims to fight resurgent populism with centre-ground campaign Continue reading...

CBI says fall in sterling since Brexit vote is pushing up cost of materials, with factory gate prices rising at fastest for two yearsBritain’s factories are poised to raise both output and prices over the coming months as they continue to adjust to the impact of the EU referendum in June.The latest snapshot of the economy from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) showed that order books for UK manufacturers are strong and production is expected to rise at its fastest pace in almost two years over the next three months. Continue reading...

Rises in NI, corporation tax and stamp duty on shares help swell Treasury coffers but Philip Hammond will still miss deficit targetBritain’s public finances improved in October with a fall in the monthly deficit to £4.8bn from £6.4bn in the same month last year, giving the chancellor a lift ahead of Wednesday’s autumn statement.Healthy increases in national insurance contributions, corporation tax and stamp duty on shares helped boost government coffers and put Philip Hammond in a better position to ease austerity.

AO World boss warns post-Brexit vote price increases are inevitable given sterling’s weakness with consumers feeling the full impact in JanuaryThis year’s Black Friday will be the biggest yet as shoppers snap up large items such as fridges before Brexit-induced price rises take effect in January, the boss of AO World has predicted.John Roberts, the online retailer’s chief executive, said price rises were inevitable after the pound’s plunge against other major currencies since the EU referendum. Suppliers were starting to charge more and shoppers would feel the full impact by the end of January, he said.Related: Black Friday warning as report finds only half of offers are the real deal Continue reading...

To those with average and low incomes, his simple slogan ‘make America great again’ sounded like ‘make you great again’The US president-elect, Donald Trump, campaigned in part on a proposal to cut taxes dramatically for those with high incomes, a group whose members often have elite educations as well. And yet his most enthusiastic support tended to come from those with average and stagnating incomes and low levels of education. What gives?Trump’s victory clearly appears to stem from a sense of economic powerlessness, or a fear of losing power, among his supporters. To them, his simple slogan, “make America great again,” sounds like “make you great again”. Economic power will be given to the multitudes, without taking anything away from the already successful.Related: Does Trump’s election spell globalisation's end?Related: Trumpism could be a solution to the crisis of neoliberalism Continue reading...

Oxfam criticises rising inequality as Credit Suisse finds about 400,000 Britons have lost their status as dollar millionairesThe UK saw $1.5tn (£1.2tn) wiped off its wealth during 2016 after the Brexit vote sent the pound tumbling and the stock market into reverse, according to a survey by Credit Suisse.A fall in values at the top-end of the property market also contributed to about 400,000 Britons losing their status as dollar millionaires and one of the biggest drops in wealth among the major economies.Related: RBS chairman calls on Theresa May to draw up Brexit transitional plan Continue reading...

Once it was the prosperous first industrial town in Wales. Today one in three families can’t cope at all. This is the ‘post-industrial’ truth of modern BritainA health worker in Pontypool told me what happens when people lose their sense of purpose. “You don’t get up in the morning. You might see a spiral in depression,” she said last week. “You lose contact with the outside world.” The dismal list went on: no self-worth, no self-confidence ...Related: Burning anger in the land of Nye Bevan: why a Labour heartland is backing BrexitThe reason the political geography of Britain is so divided is because its economic geography is so unequalRelated: Britain's shrinking economy: why the level of debate is farcical | Aditya Chakrabortty Continue reading...

The ideology driving some Tory MPs to support a hard Brexit would be a disaster for working people.Falling back on World Trade Organisation rules would not be a clean break but the most destructive, harshest of settlements, which would lead to fewer jobs and less business investment, and would leave the British people poorer. This is not what they voted for in June. Continue reading...

So, Kitchen Disco, the children’s book by David Cameron’s former speechwriter Clare Foges, with Al Murphy, was written “in a day during a holiday in Gambia after ‘a lovely daydream about fruit jumping out of the bowl and dancing in a nightclub’” (The week in books, Review, 19 November). While I am glad that this engaging book has been given to thousands of reception-age children by BookTrust for their enjoyment, it is naive to claim that “every child has a kitchen, so it is an inclusive story”. The austerity agenda of Foges’ former employer continues to create poverty and homelessness on a scale meaning that thousands of children living in hostels and bed and breakfast accommodation do not have their own kitchens, or fruit, or holidays. That is a story worth telling.

Rolling coverage of all the day’s political developments as they happen, including Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn’s speeches to the CBI conference

The Aussie sank to US73.22c as traders pushed up the US dollar in the wake of the Republican’s presidential victoryThe Australian dollar has slid to its lowest level against its US counterpart since early June, as a rally in the greenback continued.

Centre for Cities report finds 24% of new graduates in 2014 and 2015 were working in capital within six months of finishingThe challenges faced by the government in tackling the economic dominance of the south of England has been illustrated by a report showing that London is attracting a disproportionate share of graduates.Ahead of Philip Hammond’s first autumn statement this week, the report by thinktank Centre for Cities, published on Monday, found that one in four recent university leavers chose to work in the capital, a brain drain harming the prospects of other cities by depriving them of the skills they need, as the economy shifts towards knowledge-intensive activities. Continue reading...

With little room for manoeuvre, Philip Hammond must find a way to support economy during negotiations to leave EUThe chancellor Philip Hammond will deliver his maiden autumn statement on Wednesday against a backdrop of weaker growth prospects and a large deficit.While room for big giveaways will be limited, Hammond is likely to have some measures up his sleeve to support the economy during the negotiations to leave the EU.Related: Tell us how you might be affected by Philip Hammond's autumn statement Continue reading...

Independent economic watchdog expected to predict post-Brexit UK will have low growth, higher inflation and larger deficitThe government’s independent economic watchdog will tear up its previous forecasts for the UK’s growth prospects as it gives its first official verdict on the outlook for post-Brexit Britain this week.The Office for Budget Responsibility is expected to paint a gloomy picture of lower growth, higher inflation and a larger-than-expected deficit as the UK negotiates its way out of the EU. Continue reading...

Chancellor’s autumn statement unlikely to do much for the ‘just about managing’ families who voted keenly for BrexitWelcome to Jamland. Formerly known as the United Kingdom, Jamland is where the Jams live.They were once known as the squeezed middle. They have also been dubbed the people who just get on with it. Now, courtesy of Theresa May, there is a new moniker for those who are struggling to get by – the families who are “just about managing”.Related: Philip Hammond dashes hopes of big windfalls for struggling familiesRelated: The Observer view on the autumn statement | Observer editorial Continue reading...

Fayez al-Serraj’s administration faces credibility crisis over row with central bank on how to revive the economyThe government of near-bankrupt Libya faces the threat of a forced devaluation of the country’s currency and an end to fuel subsidies, in a move that could spark a wave of popular anger and the fall of the teetering UN-backed administration in Tripoli.The credibility of Fayez al-Serraj’s government of national accord (GNA) is waning despite the support of the US, France, Italy and the UK, and its leadership has been unable to unite the country.Related: Libya crisis talks held in London as economy 'nears collapse' Continue reading...

The American ‘shopping event’ that has travelled to Britain is coming around again. But our bouts of fisticuffs at the tills don’t compare with theirsThey say that what starts in the US inevitably comes to the UK (burger joints, crazy clowns and syphilis are oft-cited examples). But we don’t always embrace these gifts as enthusiastically as the Americans.Take Black Friday, the US equivalent to our Boxing Day sales, which takes place the day after Thanksgiving and is with us again this week. Desperate retailers have tried to introduce something similar here – only with limited success. Continue reading...

Learning patriotism from Michael Gove’s syllabus is all very well: but basic GCSE failures are preventing thousands from taking up opportunitiesMichael Gove’s inspiration for including Tennyson’s The Charge of the Light Brigade in the new English GCSE syllabus is becoming clearer every day.Gove, one of Vote Leave’s architects, understands the spirit running through British history that can result in episodes like Lord Cardigan’s fatal Crimean attack, or the evacuation of Dunkirk in the second world war, being lauded as great episodes in history. Continue reading...

John Key at Apec summit jokes ‘cosmetic changes’ could appease US president-elect over sweeping trade dealThe threatened TPP trade pact could be rebadged as the “Trump Pacific Partnership” to satisfy the US president-elect who has vowed to scrap it, New Zealand’s prime minister has said.John Key suggested “cosmetic changes” to the Trans-Pacific Partnership so that the US could be kept on board under Donald Trump, who has attacked free trade deals.Related: Malcolm Turnbull urges patience on refugee resettlement deal with MalaysiaRelated: John McCain: 'I don't give a damn – no waterboarding' under Trump Continue reading...

Unequal distribution of the fruits of a globalised economy led to the crash of 2008 and will inevitably bring further catastropheWill Hutton argues passionately and (for me) convincingly that free trade makes for greater wealth creation and protectionism will cause growth to slow down (“Trade is the lifeblood of humanity”, Comment). He’s obviously right; the move towards increasing global trade has created wealth, especially in China, and we should be glad that it has raised millions of people out of poverty.However, he doesn’t acknowledge the problem of distributing the wealth thus created. The world is awash with money but it has been very unequally distributed. Possession of so much money by people and institutions who can’t possibly use it has created serious instability. Continue reading...

Tax and benefit changes since 2010 have increased equality gapWomen will have shouldered 85% of the burden of the government’s changes to the tax and benefits system by 2020, according to figures published ahead of next week’s autumn statement.The analysis, by independent thinktank the Women’s Budget Group, shows that tax and benefit changes since 2010 will have hit women’s incomes twice as hard as men by 2020. Women will be £1,003 a year worse off by 2020 on average; for men, this figure is £555.Related: Equal Pay Day: how the UK's gender gap in earnings has shifted over the years Continue reading...

We can’t bank on him being a one-term president. In fact growth could actually accelerate for a couple of years before the real effects kick inNovember 2020: the results of the US presidential election are in. The Democrat candidate, Elizabeth Warren, fought bravely but the outcome was never really in doubt. With the economy booming, Donald Trump is returned to the White House in a landslide. His pitch to voters has been simple: I kept my promise. America is great again.For Trump’s opponents, this is the nightmare scenario. Still stunned by Hillary Clinton’s defeat, they have taken comfort from their belief that the billionaire property tycoon will prove to be a one-term president – exposed as a dangerous charlatan as soon as he takes office. This may, indeed, prove to be the case. Trumponomics is by no means a fully thought-through programme. The inconsistencies are obvious, as are the dangers. It could all go horribly wrong. But Trump may well have won a second term by the time it does. Continue reading...

The country’s biggest lender took cash away from savers to survive in 2013. Now, remarkably, Bank of Cyprus is hoping to float in LondonOnly three years ago, Bank of Cyprus was on the critical list. It had been forced – under the terms of a €10bn bailout of the country – to seize cash from its savers and was being kept afloat by billions of euros pumped in from the central bank.But, in a story of revival that mirrors the recovery in the Cypriot economy, the bank is now eyeing a listing in London and outlining plans to expand in the UK. Continue reading...

Birmingham’s Christmas stalls are thriving but the future looks uncertain for many German firms trading in BritainBirmingham’s Christmas market is thriving. Crowds of people are drinking glühwein, eating bratwurst and enjoying the traditional atmosphere of the kind found at this time of year in Dresden, Nuremberg or Leipzig.

Analysts report 18% increase in wholesale price of pork as food manufacturers and retailers face commodity price swings and weak sterling after Brexit votePigs in blankets might have to be rationed round the Christmas dinner table next month after the price of pork hit a two-year high.Analysts are reporting an 18% increase in the wholesale price of pork, with the surge expected to have a knock-on effect on the price of bacon and sausages in supermarkets in the coming weeks.Related: Lighter way to enjoy Maltesers? Mars shrinks sharing bags by 15% Continue reading...

The president of the central bank has signalled monetary support will persist amid a fragile eurozone recovery and weak inflationary pressure

If the Fed becomes too hawkish too soon, it will undermine the goal of creating jobs and boosting blue-collar incomesWhen Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in the US presidential election, the market’s immediate negative response was to be expected. But by the next day, the market’s downward turn had already reversed itself.US equities and bond yields rallied after Trump delivered a victory speech that seemed to signal that he was tacking to the centre, which investors had originally expected him to do this summer, after he won the Republican nomination and entered the general election campaign.Related: Joseph Stiglitz: what the US economy needs from Donald TrumpRelated: Dictators around the world will delight in Trump’s victory | Brian Klaas Continue reading...

Ben Broadbent also stresses Bank will carefully balance controlling inflation and supporting economy in futureA long spell of ultra-low interest rates has not driven a rise in inequality in the UK, the deputy governor of the Bank of England has said, rebuffing criticism that central bank policy had hurt some households.Ben Broadbent also reinforced the recent message from the Bank that it would tread carefully in setting interest rates over the coming months as it deals with a trade-off between keeping inflation in check and supporting the economy after the Brexit vote.Related: Ed Balls: Bank of England's independence should be reined in Continue reading...

Chancellor set to reveal grim economic forecasts next Wednesday as Office for Budget Responsibility prepares to issue its first projections of Brexit vote’s impact

Banco de México raises key interest rates by 0.5% as it warns global economy has become ‘more complex’ after Donald Trump’s election as US presidentMexico’s central bank raised interest rates on Thursday in an attempt to shore up the country’s currency, which has collapsed following Donald Trump’s election as US president.

Economists warn Philip Hammond over ignoring infrastructure needs amid £100bn black hole in financesThe chancellor, Philip Hammond, should limit the impact of the Brexit vote on the economy by excluding public investment spending from his deficit reduction plans in his autumn statement next week, economists say.As the Treasury finalised tax and spending plans, economists warned that a black hole in government finances of more than £100bn could deter the chancellor from boosting infrastructure spending and leave the economy to cope with severe headwinds without extra support.Related: The ‘just about managing’ won’t forgive May if she botches Brexit | Andrew RawnsleyRelated: UK construction at weakest level for four years as housebuilding stalls Continue reading...

Trump’s svengali, Steve Bannon, saw Hindu nationalism as part of a ‘great revolt’. The way things are going, the resistance might begin at home

London likely to remain home of £460tn-a-year business, according to analysis by ratings agency S&POne of the City’s most prized businesses – the way that financial products priced in euros are processed – will not be lost to the remaining members of the European Union as a result of Brexit, according to the ratings agency Standard & Poor’s.The costs associated with moving the clearing of complex financial instruments to another financial centre means London is likely to remain the home of the £460tn-a-year business, S&P said. Continue reading...

Former Shadow chancellor and Strictly Come Dancing contestant says better political oversight needed to address ‘popular discontent’ against central banks

Students can go through their entire degree without being asked to express an opinion. Thankfully, things are slowly beginning to changeSterling was the worst performing currency in the world last month. An employment tribunal ruled against Uber drivers being classified as self-employed. October brought with it the first GDP figures since the Brexit vote, which were better than expected. All while the ratings agency Moody’s threatened to downgrade Britain’s credit status if it leaves the European single market.You would think that the next generation of economists were ready with a range of models and tools to analyse and make sense of these events. But the limitations of a standard undergraduate economics education are such that few can honestly say they are prepared for the task.Related: Economics students aim to tear up free-market syllabus Continue reading...

Consumers remain defiant despite Brexit uncertainty and inflation fears as sales grow at fastest annual pace for 14 yearsA surprise leap in retail sales volumes last month has boosted hopes the UK economy will end the year on a high note, as consumers continue to shrug off the shock of the Brexit vote.A rush to buy winter clothes and buoyant Halloween trade for supermarkets helped UK retail sales grow at the fastest annual pace for 14 years in October, according to official figures.Related: Black Friday warning as report finds only half of offers are the real deal Continue reading...

Donald Trump got elected because the liberal elite didn’t care enough about the gap between rich and poorAccording to the socialist academic Walter Benn Michaels, the reason that rich western liberals talk so much about racism and sexism is so they don’t have to talk so much about economic inequality. He published The Trouble with Diversity exactly a decade ago, but it feels like a tract for our times, perfectly suited as a provocation to thought as we approach the summing up of liberalism’s great annus horribilis.Rich western liberals, Michaels argues, don’t want to challenge the economic structures that produce inequality because that might seriously impact on their own standing and wealth. Instead they insist on the elite being as diverse as the poor, as a way to justify the very existence of the elite. So, as long as the top class at Harvard shows a proportionate distribution of social diversity, one can happily ignore the fact that all the students come from money. Moreover, it’s not just that this focus on diversity distracts from the deeper issue of economic inequality. It’s worse, because the very diversity of the elite is asserted as justification for the non-discriminatory nature of capitalism. Diversity has become the moral alibi of neoliberal economics. Continue reading...

Not necessarily … global trade growth has been slowing for years, down to China’s economic deceleration and checks on riskier international lendingDoes Donald Trump’s election as US president mean that globalisation is dead, or are reports of the process’ demise greatly exaggerated? If globalisation is only partly incapacitated, not terminally ill, should we worry? How much will slower trade growth, now in the offing, matter for the global economy?World trade growth would be slowing down, even without Trump in office. Its growth was already flat in the first quarter of 2016, and it fell by nearly 1% in the second quarter. This continues a prior trend: since 2010, global trade has grown at an annual rate of barely 2%. Together with the fact that worldwide production of goods and services has been rising by more than 3%, this means that the trade-to-GDP ratio has been falling, in contrast to its steady upward march in earlier years.Related: Joseph Stiglitz: what the US economy needs from Donald Trump Continue reading...

Chair Janet Yellen says interest rates could go up ‘relatively soon’ as Donald Trump’s election has caused no significant change in outlook for US growthThe Federal Reserve chairwoman, Janet Yellen, said interest rates could rise “relatively soon” in her first public comments since the election of Donald Trump as the next US president.