Economics | The Guardian

All the day’s news as chancellor warns of £30bn black hole if UK leaves the EU, and Nigel Farage leads pro-Brexit flotilla along the Thames

This week we learned that the directors of the housebuilding company Persimmon are to share a bonus of £600m (Executive pay is obscene – restructuring the economy is the only way to curb it, G2, 14 June). This revelation was greeted with calls for these executives to “show restraint”, given the ongoing shortage of affordable housing. After all, as the Conservative party tells us, “we’re all in this together”.I was reminded of an earlier campaign to encourage the rich to show restraint and demonstrate solidarity with the people disadvantaged by government policy. I’m thinking of events in 1795, when wheat prices in England rose precipitously. Working people relied on bread, and spent a significant percentage of household income on it. Concerned that the high cost of bread would cause hardship, and that hardship might lead to unrest, MPs called on the wealthy to show restraint. Gentlemen up and down the country signed pledges and issued public statements affirming that until prices fell they and their households would eat more economical wholegrain breads, and would not use scarce grain for non-essential purposes such as in hair powder. Continue reading...

Barclays will be hardest hit if Britain votes to leave EU and all dividend payouts will be axed, say bank experts at BernsteinBank shares are likely to fall sharply if there was a vote for Brexit and dividend payouts to shareholders would be axed, according to a forecast by City analysts.Related: No sleep for City banks on EU referendum night Continue reading...

Anti-EU campaigners send a flotilla of fishing boats up the Thames on Wednesday. The group was organised by Ukip leader Nigel Farage. They were met by Bob Geldof on a pleasure cruiser and pro-EU campaigners and clashed, via loudspeaker, over the issue of fishing under EU law. Geldof accused the Ukip leader of being a fraud

Number of non-UK nationals working in Britain is up by 229,000 to 3.34 million year on yearFor now, all UK economic data has to be seen through the prism of the looming EU referendum. It is not a question of whether the figures are good or bad in themselves, but whether they are helpful to camp remain or camp leave.In the past week, the releases have been in favour of the Brexiteers. Industrial production was up, the trade deficit narrowed and inflation was better than the financial markets had expected. The latest report on the labour market continued the trend.Related: Unemployment rate at record low despite stall in private sector hiring Continue reading...

Almost three quarters of UK working-age population employed with latest increase mainly due to rise in self-employmentUnemployment dropped to its lowest rate since 2005 in April, to a level which without the looming Brexit vote would set off interest rate warning bells at the Bank of England. .The unemployment rate fell to 5% from 5.1% in March, while the number of jobs in the economy jumped 55,000 from March to set a record high employment rate of 74.2%. Once the jobless rate falls below 5%, the Bank believes wage pressures start to build. Continue reading...

Rather than slashing spending, the government would be wise to take a pragmatic approach to the economy if we left the EUPicture the scene. It is 28 June, five days after Britain has decided to leave the European Union. Since the referendum, the financial markets have been panic-stricken. Shares and the pound have fallen, despite the efforts of the Bank of England to calm nerves.David Cameron has called a meeting of the cabinet to be addressed by George Osborne. Eight days before the vote, the chancellor had warned that a Brexit vote would force him to deliver an emergency budget that would raise £30bn – half from tax increases and half from spending cuts.Related: George Osborne: vote for Brexit and face £30bn of taxes and spending cuts Continue reading...

Thinktank paints a grim picture of immediate aftermath and beyond if Britain votes to leave EU, including recessionA vote to leave the European Union would trigger economic and political convulsions in the UK, plunging the country back into recession and sending the pound sharply lower, a forecasting group has warned.Investors would rush to dump UK assets including shares and bonds in the immediate aftermath of voters choosing Brexit, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit.Related: FTSE 100 hits three-month low as Brexit fears grow Continue reading...

Forget the economy – those who want Brexit are happy to take a short-term hit for the long-term benefits over immigration and sovereignty. So why are they wrong? First, if the government can’t reduce immigration on the portion that it already controls, Brexit will make no difference. Even with immigration at historic highs, unemployment is still near historic lows. If foreigners weren’t taking up our jobs, we wouldn’t have enough hands to go round.Second, the pressure on infrastructure is not just the fault of immigration; natural growth is significant. Almost as many new mouths are born each year as come from another country. Yet investment in housing, the NHS and education has not been keeping pace – a neglect made worse by a programme of unpopular cuts. And third, how much control would we have over “our” country after Brexit, anyway? Are we so happy with the decisions “they” make in Westminster? How many people voted for austerity? Higher tuition fees? How many support fracking, or scrapping the “green deal”? Most people still have little ability to influence government policy. Continue reading...

Whether or not one agrees that immigration is a threat to the UK, the numbers coming here from the EU will surely increase significantly during the “interregnum” – maybe two years or longer. Also, what will happen to the many British working in the EU when/if we leave? Won’t these be less able to work in the EU then? They may well choose to return to the UK. So, if we choose to leave, we can expect a significant increase in the numbers arriving from the EU seeking work – presumably the very outcome that leavers fear?

Economist who sought to improve the lot of women during global changes in work and technologyThe radical economist Swasti Mitter, who has died of cancer aged 76, pioneered the investigation of how global changes in work and technology have affected women in developing countries.She applied the skills of a hard-headed, mathematically inclined economist, plus an exceptional capacity for empathetic social investigation, to the human consequences of shifts in the international division of labour. Beginning by collecting the testimonies of Bangladeshi immigrant homeworkers in the clothing industry in the East End of London in 1982, she went on to trace connections between the casualisation of labour in Britain and the operations of transnational corporations in developing countries. Continue reading...

Sterling and shares have slid as the City reacts to polls showing the Leave on track to win next week’s referendum

Prices in the restaurants and hotels sector were 2.6% higher in May than they were a year earlierOil prices have risen. A lower pound is making imports dearer. The more generous minimum wage is pushing up the cost of hiring labour. Signs of inflationary pressure can be seen everywhere apart from in the official measure of the cost of living.As usual, the City was expecting the headline annual inflation rate to rise in May. As usual, it was wrong. Instead of rising to 0.4%, inflation remained at 0.3%, where it has been in each month of 2015 apart from March, which was affected by the early timing of Easter.Related: UK inflation unchanged at 0.3% in May Continue reading...

The challenge posed by low-cost producers such as China will continue, whatever the EU referendum outcomeManufacturing matters and Brexit can help. Although a service sector economy, UK manufacturing is vital in achieving balanced and regional growth and reducing the large trade deficit.Strong global influences are challenging manufacturing, not least low-cost producers led by China. These will continue, whatever the referendum outcome. But Brexit provides greater flexibility to cope and position for the future.Related: Sir James Dyson dismisses Brexit trade fears as 'cobblers'Related: Would the pound be weakened by Brexit? Continue reading...

Pro-Brexit Tory minister says of £160m being contributed to EU, £100m would go on NHS but then flounders over restThe employment minister, Priti Patel, has struggled to explain how a post-Brexit government would spend money it currently contributes to the EU.Remain campaigners accused Vote Leave of peddling “fantasy economics” after it claimed it would protect those, such as farmers and scientists, who are currently funded by the EU. Continue reading...

This turbulence reinforces the in camp’s message about the economic risks of leaving the EUBrexit pursued by a bear. Traders in the City of London are not especially renowned for their cultural appreciation but Shakespeare’s most famous stage direction has been adapted to sum up the mood with just over a week to go before the referendum.There was certainly a bit of A Winter’s Tale feel about the financial markets as investors pored over the latest opinion polls suggesting the leave side is on course for what, only a month ago, looked like an improbable victory.Bond markets looking good. Lot of international investors happy to buy UK gilts ahead of Brexit Continue reading...

Much of weakness in consumer prices blamed on uncertainty created by EU referendumInflation remained at 0.3% in May after a rise in transport costs and hotel bills was offset by the falling cost of clothes and food.The Office for National Statistics said a slide in the price of games, toys and hobby items also played a role in keeping the consumer prices index (CPI) at the same level as April and below 1% since the end of 2014.

BP’s call for a ‘meaningful carbon price’ is the latest example of wrongly trying to apply economic theories and tools to the environmentBP’s Statistical Review of World Energy is a standard industry reference document. It’s a useful indicator of trends, if occasionally the victim of politics. Continue reading...

It is a reasonable assumption the pound would fall following a Brexit – what happens after that, however, is not so easy to predictThe pound has been falling on the foreign exchange markets as opinion polls have suggested that the result of the EU referendum on 23 June is too close to call. According to the Treasury’s worst-case forecast, sterling could drop by 15% after a Brexit vote. Continue reading...

It’s a scandal. Charlatans in pinstripes are being allowed to wring dry their companies, with the taxpayer footing the billOn Wednesday, two very different men will have to explain themselves. Both appear in London, to a room full of authority figures – but their finances and their status place them at opposite ends of our power structure. Yet put them together and a picture emerges of the skewedness of today’s Britain.For the Rev Paul Nicolson, the venue will be a magistrate’s court in London. His “crime” is refusing to pay his council tax, in protest against David Cameron’s effective scrapping of council tax benefit, part of his swingeing cuts to social security. In order to pay for a financial crisis they didn’t cause, millions of families already on low incomes are sinking deeper into poverty. In order to pay bills they can’t afford, neighbours of the retired vicar are going without food. The 84-year-old faces jail this week, for the sake of £2,831.Related: BHS collapse could cost taxpayer £35m Continue reading...

Software giant has stunned Wall Street by agreeing to buy business social media network LinkedIn

Sterling and Asian stocks fall to two-month lows amid uncertainty about EU vote and state of world economyFinancial markets suffered falls on Monday amid growing fears that Britain could vote to leave the EU.

Austerity and underinvestment have given us offices that are cold, ugly and miserable. It’s time for a change

Focus on boosting pay risks ignoring debt problems for millions on zero-hour contracts, Citizens Advice saysFour-and-a-half million people in England and Wales are in insecure work, according to research by Citizens Advice, which has warned too much focus on boosting pay risks ignoring the problem of unpredictable incomes for many households.

Labour MP Dan Jarvis backs call for levy on richest 0.1% to help cut deficit and protect public servicesA one-off tax on Britain’s super-rich is the only feasible way to tackle the government’s spending deficit and protect vital public services, according to a report backed by the Labour MP Dan Jarvis and the left-of-centre Fabian Society thinktank.The levy would apply to UK residents with more than £10m in assets, with a supplementary charge for those with more than £20m in shares and property.Related: World's wealthiest people just got 5.2% wealthierRelated: Recession rich: Britain's wealthiest double net worth since crisis Continue reading...

New rules aim to shame employers into ending wage disparity between the sexes but tougher penalties, such as a pay gap tax, are neededMore than three decades after the equal pay act, the gender pay gap still stands at about 19%, with the average British woman earning around 80p for every £1 earned by a man.David Cameron believes he has a few ways to narrow the gulf and has vowed to eliminate it “in a generation”. But for many people that is clearly too long to wait. Continue reading...

Economic discontent over globalisation leaves many voters wavering. Corbyn and McDonnell could make a decisive intervention for Remain if they choseBrexit is pointless – utterly pointless. It cannot even be distinguished by the label “project”, because the Brexit people are unable tell us with an ounce of conviction what they have in store.The essence of their campaign is entirely negative: keep out immigrants – although some of the more prominent Brexiters, in common with so many of us, are descended from immigrants – and take a leap into the economic and trading unknown. The supply chains of so much business are now trans-European, but these would be needlessly disrupted as the nation turned in on itself. No wonder the markets are unsettled; and those of us with long memories know that when markets become seriously unsettled, it is difficult to prevent things from getting totally out of hand.So far the impression is that the Labour leaders have been half-hearted about their conversion to the European cause Continue reading...

The chancellor and Bank governor Mark Carney have a chance to put the pro-EU position to the City this week – but have few new cards to playGeorge Osborne’s critics sense that his reputation as a master tactician is unravelling. His “omnishambles” budget of 2012 was a clue to the limits of his powers.More recently, he entered the battlefield in the EU referendum with all guns blazing, only to run out of ammunition weeks before the vote. Analysts were bemused that the chancellor and the prime minister had fired all their shots before most people had woken up to the fact that a referendum was even taking place. Continue reading...

Janet Yellen, the head of the Federal Reserve, has been criticised for dithering, but there are many factors stopping her from raising interest ratesWhen Janet Yellen sits down with her colleagues on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate-setting committee this week, another slice of her credibility will be on the line.America’s recovery since the financial crash has not followed the path it was supposed to. The central bank’s constant dithering over whether to raise interest rates has made it appear weak and unable to influence events. Continue reading...

Concerns over 23 June referendum compounded fears of a global economic slowdown, falling oil prices and next week’s Federal Reserve meetingInvestors are bracing for more choppy trading on financial markets in the final run-up to the EU referendum after Brexit jitters knocked the pound to a seven-week low, dented share prices and fuelled demand for safer assets such as bonds and gold.With opinion polls tight and less than two weeks to go before the vote, sterling came under pressure and it was down more than 1% against the US dollar at one point on Friday. In late afternoon trading the pound was worth $1.43.Related: FTSE falls sharply amid new Brexit warnings - as it happenedRelated: No single market access for UK after Brexit, Wolfgang Schäuble says#gold price appears to be tracking odds of #Brexit. We expect jump to at least $1,400 if UK votes to leave EU. pic.twitter.com/oDfYh59ZQp Continue reading...

Sports retailers, pubs and betting shops are hoping for a sales fillip off the back of a football feelgood factor“We’re not going home halfway through”, sings Madchester veteran Shaun Ryder on England’s unofficial Euro 2016 anthem – and retailers across Britain will be sharing that dream. But this is no outpouring of patriotic support for England, Wales and Northern Ireland from retail executives. Shop owners, publicans and restaurateurs are hoping for a sales fillip off the back of a football feelgood factor, with some sectors in particular expecting for a boost from the month-long tournament, although the wider UK economy stands to benefit if workers concentrate on their jobs more than matches.Related: England's early exit from Euro 2016 'could wipe £6bn off stock market' Continue reading...

In Der Spiegel interview German finance minister rules out Britain’s chances of enjoying bloc benefits from outside EUGermany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, has slammed the door on Britain retaining access to the single market if it votes to the leave the European Union.In an interview in a Brexit-themed issue of German weekly Der Spiegel, the influential veteran politician ruled out the possibility of the UK following a Swiss or Norwegian model that would allow it to enjoy the benefits of the single market without being an EU member.Related: A reverse Maastricht would be legal and politically feasible | Michael WhiteMajor intervention from Germany: UK would have to accept free movement and pay in to EU to continue to access trade https://t.co/jIAPPXM6hT Continue reading...

Biggest monthly increase since January 2014 could be linked to early Easter holidays this yearBritain’s construction output bounced back in April and along with strong industrial production data painted a brighter picture of the economy than expected.The Office for National Statistics said construction output rose 2.5% in April from the previous month. This was the biggest monthly increase since January 2014 and surprised economists, who had expected 1.7% growth. However, the rise was not big enough to make up for March’s 3.6% decline.A 2.3% rise in manufacturing, surging export volumes and a 2.5% construction rebound. Strong April data may push our Q2 UK GDP forecast up. Continue reading...

Your report on the consequences of a leave vote (Guerilla campaign mooted, 7 June) quotes a pro-European MP saying “We would have to respect the mandate of the referendum”. But it is quite unclear what that mandate might be, as the referendum question does not specify the range of alternatives to full EU membership should the UK vote to leave. Until parliament has determined whether, for example, it wishes the UK to remain in the European Economic Area, it would be inappropriate for David Cameron to formally notify the EU of the UK’s intention to withdraw from the EU. A leave vote would therefore need to be followed by an emergency debate in parliament from Monday 27 June onwards about the UK’s withdrawal options, where the most likely outcome, as you indicate, would be overwhelming support for the UK to remain in EEA, which would of course outrage hard-line Brexiters in the Conservative party.At the same time another more fundamental problem might arise in the wake of a UK referendum leave vote. What if Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales vote remain, their MPs propose an amendment to parliament’s EEA motion in support of the UK’s continued membership of the EU, and pro-EU English MPs vote with them to pass their amendment? The UK would be plunged into a full-blown constitutional crisis concerning the very sovereignty of parliament.

Goods exports volumes climbed by 11.2% in April, the biggest monthly increase since records began in 1998A record jump for Britain’s goods exports helped the country’s trade deficit fall more than expected in April.Coming after a set of healthy figures from the high street and the manufacturing sector, the trade figures showed the UK economy had steadied ahead of the EU referendum, following a wobble in the first three months of the year.Related: UK trade deficit with EU hits new recordRelated: What would Brexit mean for UK trade deals? Continue reading...

Toxic air set to cause as many as 9 million premature deaths a year around the world in the next four decades, with economic costs rising to trillions a yearAir pollution is becoming a “terrifying” problem around the globe, one of the world’s leading economic organisations has warned, and will get much worse in the coming decades if urgent steps are not taken to control the pollution.The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said on Thursday that pollution of our air from industry, agriculture and transport was set to cause as many as 9 million premature deaths a year around the world in the next four decades, and the economic costs are likely to rise to about $2.6 tn (£1.8tn) a year over the same period. Continue reading...

Thinktank says under Tory fiscal charter some low-income households could lose £5,542 a year in tax credits and benefits

One lesson for Africa from China’s economic boom is that self-interest could be the perfect tool for getting the political elite focused on developmentManufacturing’s contribution to African GDP has remained constant at 10% for the past 40 years, and Africa’s contribution to global manufacturing has actually reduced from 3% in 1980 to 2% today.Related: Domestic critics carp over extent of China's munificence towards Africa Continue reading...

Manufacturing output grew 2.3% in April according to official figures that contrast with other data pointing to slowdownBritish industrial production grew at the fastest pace in almost four years in April, boosted by the pharmaceuticals and energy sectors.The official figures, which took the City by surprise and sent the pound higher, are in contrast with other economic data that has pointed to a slowdown in the economy before the EU referendum on 23 June.Related: Why upbeat UK manufacturing figures have silenced Osborne Continue reading...

News that production grew at its fastest pace in four years does not fit the narrative of an economy on edge before the EU voteIn normal times, George Osborne would have been all over the good news from the manufacturing sector like a rash. The figures from UK industry were better – a lot better – than the City had been expecting and showed the fastest month-on-month increase in almost four years.So where was the instant statement from the chancellor praising the strength of the economy and the success of the government’s strategy? Sherlock Holmes would have had the answer. Osborne’s unusual reticence was a classic case of the dog that doesn’t bark.Related: British industrial production grows at fastest pace in four years Continue reading...

Growth expected to slow this year as oil exporters in developing countries struggle to cope with lower energy pricesGlobal growth will slow this year as oil exporters in the developing world struggle to cope with lower energy prices, the World Bank has said in its half-yearly economic health check.The benefit of cheaper oil pricesfor Europe, Japan and other oil importing nations, which has sustained their growth through 2015 and 2016, has failed to offset a slowdown in parts of Africa, Asia and South America that depend on selling energy to sustain their incomes. Continue reading...

Roberto Azevêdo says leave vote would present complex and unusual situation with UK unable to ‘cut and paste’ its former EU-negotiated trade dealsNegotiations about the shape of the UK’s post-Brexit trade arrangements would have to start from scratch after a leave vote in the EU referendum, the head of the World Trade Organisation said as he admitted there had been no preliminary discussions with the UK government.Roberto Azevêdo, the WTO director-general, said he expected any talks to be long and difficult, adding: “We haven’t had any discussions about the process. We don’t know what the process would be. We do know it would be a very unusual situation.” Continue reading...

EU statistics estimate annual GDP growth at 1.7% with higher average quarterly rise rise outstripping UKThe eurozone’s reputation as the laggard of the global economy appeared to be overly pessimistic, after revised figures showed annual GDP growth in the currency bloc edged higher to 1.7%.Eurostat, the official data agency for the European Union, showed that GDP growth in the first quarter was 0.6%, after being trimmed to 0.5% in an earlier estimate, pushing the annual growth rate up from the previous estimate of 1.6%.Related: EU jobless rate hits seven-year low; US data mixed – as it happened Continue reading...

Sports Direct founder cannot risk carrying on with the bluster when he gives evidence on working conditions for warehouse staffMike Ashley is a paper tiger. Having said he would not show up to give evidence to the House of Commons business committee, the Sports Direct boss has changed his mind and now says he will grace MPs with his presence.In truth, there was never the remotest possibility that Ashley would defy the will of parliament. Rupert Murdoch eventually deigned to make an appearance before a select committee, and to adapt Lloyd Bentsen’s putdown of Dan Quayle, Ashley is no Rupert Murdoch.Related: Questions Mike Ashley should answer on Sports Direct work conditionsRelated: High street sales make modest rebound helped by warm weather in May Continue reading...