The San Francisco 49ers kept the entire NFL world in the dark about who they would select with the third pick in Thursday's draft. They wouldn't even reveal the selection to the player.
Find positional rankings, additional analysis, and subscribe to push notifications in the NFL Fantasy News section.theScore's Justin Boone provided instant breakdowns of every fantasy-relevant selection in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft.Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jaguars (1st)Star potential: ★★★★★
During this week's NFL draft, the first 10 selections could include as many as five quarterbacks. Such an early run on QBs would be unprecedented, even for a league that places so much outsized value on the position. Yet for all the attention the top draft-eligible quarterbacks annually receive, the likelihood is that most will not pan out.A recent ESPN report found that of the 45 signal-callers taken in the first round between 2000 and 2016, just 19 (42.2%) landed second contracts with the team that selected them. Not one of the 22 first-round QBs chosen between 2009 and 2016 is still with the team that picked him. And you're probably aware that the greatest quarterback of all time - some dude named Tom Brady, who just won his seventh Super Bowl at the tender young age of 43 - was selected in the sixth round, with the 199th pick, behind six other quarterbacks.The draft is largely a crapshoot as a whole. A boatload of deep dives over the years has shown that NFL teams - all of them - are generally bad at picking players, regardless of position. This cold reality stands in stark contrast to the popularity of the draft industrial complex, that annual season of hype and anticipation that exists to offer fans the constant illusion of hope. Your team is absolutely going to be fixed by this year's draft crop, I swear. Unless your team totally screwed things up, which is also entirely possible, too, I guess. Who knows! Icon Sportswire / Getty ImagesAnyway, let's turn our focus toward drafting a quarterback, because the quarterback is at once the game's most important position and its most inscrutable.OverconfidenceQuality quarterbacks are scarce. It's what sets them apart, and it's the reason they're so expensive, with the top of the veteran contract market averaging nearly $20 million more in annual value than any other position.Yes, teams have won Super Bowls with an OK QB surrounded by a solid supporting cast: Nick Foles, Joe Flacco, Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer, to name four from the last 20 years. But the surest path to sustained success, to consistently remaining in the chase for a championship, where the difference between winning and losing can be painfully small, is to have a great QB.Take what 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan said last month after San Francisco traded away two future first-round picks plus a third-rounder to move up from No. 12 to No. 3 in this year's draft: "There's a risk any season you go into without a top-five QB."Seems pretty simple, right? Yet despite the hype that engulfs the run-up to every draft, the process of identifying a great QB is far more complex than just drafting the best one on the board in a given year. For every sure thing like John Elway, Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, and now (maybe?) Trevor Lawrence, there are great ones like Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Brady who were selected outside the top five or even in the third round or later.Aaron Rodgers was selected 24th overall in 2005. Dylan Buell / Getty Images Sport / GettyOne reason is overconfidence on the part of scouts, personnel executives, front offices, and owners. It's a phenomenon that was first detailed empirically in a seminal 2005 academic study of the entire draft that was co-authored by University of Pennsylvania professor Cade Massey and University of Chicago professor Richard H. Thaler (emphasis mine):
The reigning Super Bowl champions have brought back their lone remaining unsigned key contributor from a year ago.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers re-signed wide receiver Antonio Brown to a one-year contract worth up to $6.25 million, Brown's agent, Ed Wasielewski, told Tom Pelissero of NFL Network on Wednesday.Brown's deal contains $3.1 million fully guaranteed and a $2-million signing bonus.The Bucs have prioritized continuity this offseason, retaining a host of stars. Linebacker Lavonte David, pass-rusher Shaq Barrett, and tight end Rob Gronkowski were among those to sign big-money extensions, while the team retained wide receiver Chris Godwin via the franchise tag.
Find positional rankings, additional analysis, and subscribe to push notifications in the NFL Fantasy News section.Welcome to theScore Fantasy Football Podcast, hosted by Justin Boone.Find the show on iTunes, Google Play, Stitcher, Spotify, and Anchor.In this episode, theScore betting writer Alex Kolodziej joins Boone to discuss NFL draft props and 2021 team win totals.
One of the most popular markets to bet during the NFL draft is Round 1 position totals. The objective is simple: Oddsmakers set a number on how many prospects at a certain position (quarterback, running back, etc.) will be off the board in the first round, and bettors choose the over or under.Here, we'll dive into the various positions offered.Wide receivers - 5.5Over: +100