Labour MP Chris Leslie tells BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that shadow chancellor John McDonnell must explain his U-turn on Labour’s support for government plans to force future administrations to keep a budget surplus. Leslie, McDonnell’s predecessor as shadow chancellor under Harriet Harman’s leadership of the party, says McDonnell is sending the wrong economic message to the public

Former shadow chancellor Chris Leslie says his successor needs to explain last-minute change after angry parliamentary party meeting

Imports were down for the 11th month in a row, according to official figures, but there are signs that demand for the country’s exports is picking upChina’s imports fell heavily in September, official figures said, keeping pressure on policymakers to do more to stave off a sharper economic slowdown.Although exports fell less than expected by 3.7% from the same period last year, the value of imports tumbled more than 20% to register the 11th straight month of falls.Related: The world economic order is collapsing and this time there seems no way out | Will HuttonRelated: Western economies are still too weak to cope with Fed rate rise, says China Continue reading...

Economists are applauding the decision to recognise Edinburgh-born microeconomist Angus Deaton for his analysis of consumption, poverty, and welfare.

Evidence is more abundant than ever in economics. But Osborne prefers to sweep the awkward facts awayThe first analysts of family budgets were Rev David Davies and Sir Frederick Morton Eden in the 18th century. Their purpose, the new economics Nobel laureate Angus Deaton notes in his book on household surveys and public policy, was to highlight working-class distress. These pioneers produced powerful pictures of penury but, grabbing at evidence wherever they found it, they were engaged in reportage rather than science.More systematic assessment of social trends had to await the evolution of statistical theory, the arrival of big, randomly sampled surveys, and finally computers to crunch the results. The combined effect has been to distil something solid from thin air. Economics remains the dismal science when it comes to prediction, but it has made strides in measuring the facts, and gauging the diverse ways in which they play out for different people. Deaton’s singular contribution has been to disentangle the economy-wide swings in spending and saving from the decisions and the circumstances that confront particular individuals. But there are obvious parallels with the work of Anthony Atkinson and the bestselling Thomas Piketty on inequalities in income and wealth, and indeed with the efforts of civil servants and thinktanks which can now calculate, with half-decent precision, the immediate winners and losers from any tax and benefit reforms. The availability and intelligent analysis of surveys of citizens has steadily allowed for conjecture to be displaced by arithmetic. Continue reading...

John McDonnell says Labour will now vote against charter requiring government to run budget surplus within three years during ‘normal times’John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, has made a last minute U-turn by announcing that Labour will vote against the government’s charter of fiscal responsibility on Wednesday.He told the Guardian in an interview during the weekend of the Labour conference that the party would back the fiscal rules despite Jeremy Corbyn having been elected as leader on an anti-austerity ticket. McDonnell said he was committed to balancing the books even though he did not agree with many of the charter’s specific objectives. Continue reading...

The refugee crisis is paralleled by the savage fallout from a global financial system running out of controlEurope has seen nothing like this for 70 years – the visible expression of a world where order is collapsing. The millions of refugees fleeing from ceaseless Middle Eastern war and barbarism are voting with their feet, despairing of their futures. The catalyst for their despair – the shredding of state structures and grip of Islamic fundamentalism on young Muslim minds – shows no sign of disappearing.Yet there is a parallel collapse in the economic order that is less conspicuous: the hundreds of billions of dollars fleeing emerging economies, from Brazil to China, don’t come with images of women and children on capsizing boats. Nor do banks that have lent trillions that will never be repaid post gruesome videos. However, this collapse threatens our liberal universe as much as certain responses to the refugees. Capital flight and bank fragility are profound dysfunctions in the way the global economy is now organised that will surface as real-world economic dislocation.Related: IMF's emerging markets warning is timely Continue reading...

The IMF’s recent world outlook is far from rosy and predicts a bumpier future unless Australia invests more in infrastructure and changes the tax systemThis week the latest IMF World Economic Outlook was released. Once again the news was less than stellar with growth projections downgraded across the board. While the IMF generally sees good foundations for growth in Australia in the years ahead it also sees risks from a slowing China and an overheated housing market. Significantly, it has suggestions for economic policy on taxation and infrastructure that are right in the current political frame.As a general rule, the IMF outlooks don’t have too much to do with Australia. Our economy, while large, is generally on the fringe of issues the IMF cares about in a global sense. But the latest outlook, titled Adjusting to Lower Commodity Prices, has Australia positioned right in the middle.Related: IMF warns of stagnation threat to G7 economies Continue reading...

China and India’s booming economies helped us reach the 2015 target of halving poverty but now countries need to focus on making real social progressWill economic growth be the engine to get us to the 17 new global goals for sustainable development, agreed at the UN last month, by 2030? Sadly there are good reasons to think not.