German chancellor tries to reassure sceptical MPs ahead of Bundestag vote by saying IMF will take part in €86bn bailoutAngela Merkel has said that she expects the International Monetary Fund to take part in a new €86bn (£60bn) bailout for Greece, as the German chancellor prepares to face Bundestag opposition to the package in a vote on Wednesday. In an attempt to reassure sceptical MPs, Merkel said the head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, would ensure the fund’s participation if conditions on Greek pension reform and debt relief were met.Related: Greece needs further debt relief after third bailout deal in five years, says IMF chiefRelated: Why is Germany so tough on Greece? Look back 25 years | Dirk Laabs Continue reading...

The debate over an interest rate hike labours on in both the UK and the US, but static pay and minimal inflation means ultra-low rates are staying putAugust 1975. Harold Wilson was prime minister. Gerald Ford had been in the White House for a year following Richard Nixon’s resignation. Steven Spielberg’s Jaws was the summer blockbuster and inflation in Britain hit a postwar peak of 27%.Statutory incomes policy was Wilson’s response to the cost of living crisis in what now seems like a completely different world. With inflation non-existent, today’s central banks have a big decision to make. Is it safe to go back in the water and start raising interest rates for the first time since the global financial crisis and recession of 2007-09? Continue reading...

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney may hope otherwise but it’s a safe bet that rockbottom rates will stay rockbottom this year and nextIt’s a safe bet that Britain’s rock-bottom interest rates are going to stay at rock bottom, this year and next. That is the message from the global economy, where all the signs point to low inflation for years to come, robbing central banks of any reason to raise the base rates that set the benchmark for mortgages, overdrafts and loans.Some central banks might even be forced to pump more funds into their economies through those inelegantly titled quantitative-easing programmes just to keep inflation from sinking again into negative territory. Continue reading...

Christine Lagarde insists burden is unsustainable and warns fund will not participate without ‘concrete agreement’ on debt reliefGreece needs more significant debt relief from its creditors, the head of the International Monetary Fund said, after the bankrupt country accepted tough conditions to secure its third bailout deal in five years.The first €26bn of a package worth more than three times that will be disbursed within days after the government in Athens grudgingly approved the agreement at the end of a marathon debate, and Germany backed down on its opposition to rescuing Greece.Related: Alexis Tsipras is down but far from out Continue reading...

The publication last week of the debt deal signed by Alexis Tsipras has laid bare an alarming programme of social revolution and pervasive oversightOn Channel 4’s The Three Day Nanny, modern-day Mary Poppins Kathryn Mewes arrives in a household of tantrum-prone tots and has just 72 hours to transform them with tough love and discipline into model family members. Judging by Greece’s latest bailout deal, its lenders, led by the German government, are adopting much the same approach.It was already clear in the wake of eurozone leaders’ marathon all-night talks last month that the governing leftist party Syriza was being punished for its temerity in challenging the eurozone orthodoxy of austerity.Once it gets down to the nitty-gritty, the abrogation of political control signalled by the memorandum is extraordinary Continue reading...

The Chinese leadership’s devaluation of the yuan delivered a temporary shock to financial markets, but its longer-term effects may be felt around the globeAfter China unexpectedly devalued its currency last week, one City economist shrugged despairingly and said: “It’s August.” While it’s meant to be a time for heading for the beach or kicking back in the sunshine with the kids, August has often witnessed the first cracks that presaged what later became profound shifts in the tectonic plates of the global economy — from the Russian debt default in 1998, to what Northern Rock boss Adam Applegarth called “the day the world changed,” when the first ripples of the credit crunch were felt in 2007; to August 2011, when ratings agency Standard and Poor’s sent shockwaves through financial markets by stripping America of its triple-AAA credit rating.Taking the long view, last week’s devaluation by China, which left the yuan about 3% weaker against the dollar, was relatively modest — sterling had lost 16% of its value in 1967 when Harold Wilson sought to reassure the British public about the “pound in your pocket”. Continue reading...

After months of arguments, Greece’s third loan programme has finally been approved by eurozone ministers tonight.... meaning debt relief could follow this autumn

Jean-Claude Juncker claims Greece will ‘irreversibly’ remain part of the single currency after eurozone finance ministers approve the new dealGreece clinched a three-year bailout worth €86bn (£60bn) after parliamentarians in Athens backed the deal, and Germany backed down on its opposition to the third rescue of the bankrupt country in five years.A meeting of eurozone finance ministers in Brussels representing the country’s main creditors agreed to launch the new bailout with €26bn being disbursed next week following six months of bitter recrimination that almost saw the country, under the leftwing government of Alexis Tsipras, becoming the first to exit the single currency.Related: Alexis Tsipras hit by Syriza rebellion as Greece approves bailout dealRelated: Alexis Tsipras is down but far from outRelated: Tsipras could become the leader Greece needs – if he can survive politically | David Patrikarakos Continue reading...

This explosion for Jeremy Corbyn isn’t about Corbyn as such; the political situation on the left has been building for years with no outlet – this is why the SNP stormed it when they took on a left mantle. Why Caroline Lucas increased her majority in Brighton. It is even why, to a degree, a section of older Labour voted for Ukip as a strong protest. These are manifestations of Labour’s failure.The immediate support for Corbyn’s nomination was because he was at least on the right tracks, with the bonus that he is a man of great integrity. Everyone on the broad left then saw a chance to reset the agenda and move away from the rigid pro-austerity orthodoxy, and with a backdrop of economic crisis, wars, falling living standards, tuition fees etc, we have a perfect storm from the establishment’s perspective. This is a serious movement with serious intent that has seen through the veil. There is also the Blair effect – a shift to Corbyn as a reaction to his toxicity. Be prepared for Gordon Brown to weigh in, too, just as in the independence campaign. I’m looking forward to the celebrations.

Whether it’s the yuan or the euro, the lesson of history is that the currency should be arranged around the economy. Not the other way aroundHistory is littered with upside-down verdicts about exchange rates. In the Britain of 1925, for example, there were misguided cheers when Churchill pushed industry into the doldrums by pretending the first world war had never happened, and forcing sterling back up to its 1914 parity. In 1992, misguided tears accompanied the UK’s inelegant tumble out of the exchange rate mechanism, a long-dreaded devaluation which proved a terrific stimulus for recovery. In this week’s headlines, currency gyrations have once again been causing confusion.Greece was said to have shuffled “back from the edge” by clinging on to the euro, while China, by pushing the yuan’s value down, was described as pushing the world “to the brink” of a currency war. The real contrast cannot be measured in steps from any precipice. It is between Athens reordering a stricken economy around a currency, and Beijing rearranging its money to fit in with the needs of its economy. By signing up to the fresh dose of austerity, which the Greek parliamenton Friday accepted as the price of remaining in the single currency club, Alexis Tsipras’s leftwing government has fallen into line with respectable financial opinion, while submitting its families and factories to disruptive adjustments. But Beijing displayed disdain for the expectation of the currency markets, as it moved to shore up the stability of Chinese business. Continue reading...

Beijing watchers are growing concerned over the economic and political signals coming out of the world’s second-largest economyIt has been a tough year for China. Premier Li Keqiang’s plan to have slower but better balanced growth has run into difficulties and Beijing’s struggle to transform its economic model has prompted fears that the world’s second-biggest economy could be the source of the next global downturn.Here are five warning signs that have set seasoned China watchers worrying that what started out as an exercise in rebalancing and controlled liberalisation might result in a hard landing. Continue reading...

In accepting the latest bailout package, the Greek prime minister has incurred the wrath of many in his own party. His welcome pragmatism may cost him dearIn times of crisis, leadership is vital – and no country is now experiencing as much of a crisis (at least in the financial sense) as Greece. But its leader, prime minister Alexis Tsipras, who previously held no government position whatsoever, and took power at the relatively young age of 40, has yet to prove himself. In fact, the true test of his leadership is only just beginning.This may seem like a strange, almost counterintuitive thing to say about a man who has led Greece in the midst of an almost existential crisis for the past eight months. But now is the time when Greece, and the EU, will find out whether Tsipras truly has what it takes. Up until now he has been little more than negotiator-in-chief with Greece’s creditors and – given that his party Syriza was forced to renege on all of its promises to fight EU-required austerity – a pretty bad one at that. Continue reading...

The Labour leadership frontrunner has proposed ‘people’s QE’ to fund infrastructure, instead of banks, but Yvette Cooper says it is bad economics

Uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the Greek crisis dented consumer and business confidence, especially in FranceA slump in French manufacturing and construction sapped the strength of the eurozone economy in the second quarter, pushing the 19-member currency bloc’s GDP growth rate down to 0.3% from 0.4% in the first three months of the year.A solid performance by Germany and continuing expansion, albeit modest, in Italy offset the figures from Paris, which showed that the second-largest economy in the currency bloc failed to expand between April and the end of June.Related: Eurozone growth weaker than forecast as French economy stagnates - live updates Continue reading...

Prime minister could face a confidence vote next week as he falls short of 120 votes he needs to survive a censure motionAfter a tumultuous, often ill-tempered and at times surreal all-night debate, Greek MPs voted early on Friday to approve a new multibillion euro bailout deal aimed at keeping their debt-stricken country afloat.Related: Greek bailout vote and eurozone GDP growth figures - live updates Continue reading...

Greece needs serious debt relief, not token measures: it is about time lenders accepted that piecemeal measures are pointless when debt ratios reach 200%The good news for the International Monetary Fund, which has been saying for ages that Greece’s debts are unsustainable, is that European lenders now seem to agree.There are “serious concerns” about the sustainability of the country’s debts, the three European institutions negotiating the latest bailout said on Thursday. They think Greece’s debts will peak at 201% of GDP in 2016, which is roughly what the IMF said a month ago when it projected a high “close to 200% of GDP in the next two years”. Continue reading...

Research into impact of organised crime groups on global economy found their presence in a region can reduce GDP per capita by 20%When mafia bosses move in, it’s bad news for the local economy as well as for law and order, according to academic research which suggests the presence of organised crime in a region can slash GDP per capita by a catastrophic 20% over three decades.A series of articles in August’s Economic Journal brings together the latest research on the impact of organised crime groups on the global economy. Continue reading...

Pharmacists and bakers are among businessses worried that the latest Greece rescue deal, while pushing competition, will harm community enterprisesChristos Vouldis doesn’t see why international institutions like the European Central Bank should tell him how to run his bakery. Nikolleta Stefanidi, meanwhile, is worried for the elderly people who come to her Athens neighbourhood pharmacy for their medicine.Air and sea ports and the national grid are to be privatised as part of Greece’s latest rescue deal under the new three-year bailout. Taxes will be raised on powerful shipping firms, and VAT increased at an estimated cost to the average Greek household of €650 a year.

Recent attempts to fine-tune the economy, devalue the yuan or cool the stock market have proved ham-fisted and misguidedThe economic wizards of Beijing have feet of clay after all. That’s the growing sense after China’s currency fell for a third day and the deputy governor of its central bank was forced to hold a press conference at which he insisted this was all part of a grand plan.Zhang Xiaohui didn’t quite say “devaluation, what devaluation?” just as Jim Callaghan never quite said “crisis, what crisis?” during the Winter of Discontent. Both men were intent on showing that their governments were fully in control even though they were not. For UK politicians in the 1970s this was a familiar sensation; for China’s mandarins it is an entirely new experience.

Introducing an alternative currency is not particularly difficult as long as the fundamentals of currency design are understood by its architectsThe recent Greek capitulation under pressure from other euro member countries, led by Germany, demonstrates that euro members have de facto ceded sovereignty over fiscal policy to the EU. While this arrangement may be acceptable to some countries, ­­perhaps even Greece,­­ it will be resisted by others.However, as the Greek failure also demonstrates, any eurozone country wishing to restore fiscal sovereignty, or restructure some of their debt, or implement any policy or set of policies that runs afoul of the preferences of certain Eurogroup finance ministers will have near­-zero negotiating leverage if they fail to plan, credibly and in advance, for the introduction of a viable alternative currency.Related: Greek economy posts surprise recovery ahead of bailout vote – live Continue reading...

Analysis by trio of European creditors forecasts Greek debt to peak at 201% of GDP in 2016 and that debt relief may be necessaryGreece’s European creditors have underlined the temporary nature of the country’s surprise return to growth by warning that they have “serious concerns” about the spiralling debts of the eurozone’s weakest member.The economic news came as Greece’s parliament met in emergency session on Thursday to ratify a new bailout deal, although it was unclear whether the multibillion-euro agreement had the vital backing of Germany.Related: Greek economy posts surprise recovery ahead of bailout vote – live Continue reading...

A victory for Jeremy Corbyn will be a win for global corporations, the City and the savagery of Osbornomics. Labour can win again, but only with a credible leaderThe Labour party is erupting. As ballot papers go out tomorrow, the number electing a new leader has tripled to an astounding 610,000. But they need to remember they are still a few straws in the giant haystack of the real electorate.Some infiltrators will be weeded out, but most newcomers are likely to be sincere Corbyn believers. Tony Blair’s second and more ferocious intervention is unlikely to persuade them. Indeed, his “modernising” wing, so aggressive from day one in their support for the unlikely Liz Kendall, helped stoke the Corbyn phenomenon and divide the party. It’s they who seem like the outsiders from yesteryear, still harping on about “reform” of public services that simply won’t be there by 2020. Putting the party back together will take a leader of rare skill.Related: Cooper speech and Blair warning: Politics live - readers' editionThis isn’t religion, it’s about how to save Sure Start, abolish the bedroom tax, stop savage benefit sanctions Continue reading...

Deputy central bank governor, Zhang Xiaohui, says yuan is close to ‘market levels’ after two days of declinesChina’s central bank sought on Thursday to allay fears it would engineer a continued fall in the yuan in a move that brought calm to global markets rocked this week by a shock series of devaluations.

Labour market flexibility has kept wages growth down while demand was weak, but it remains to be seen whether it will push up wages when demand returnsFigures released on Wednesday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics show that wages grew by a record low amount in the past year – just 2.27% for private and public workers together. For workers in the private sector alone, wages grew by just 2.20% – another record that continues the poor run of below-average growth.The annual growth of 2.27% dipped low enough to just break the old record set in the March quarter of 2.29%. It now means wages growth has been below average for two and half years, with little sign of turning:Related: Fear of a wages blowout has officially proved overblown Continue reading...

Central bank weakens currency further by 1.1% after previous official cuts that put global financial markets on edgeChina cut the reference rate for its currency for the third straight day on Thursday, after the surprise devaluation of the yuan this week unsettled global financial markets.The central bank put the yuan’s central parity rate at 6.4010 yuan for US$1, the China Foreign Exchange Trade System said, a drop of 1.11% from the previous day’s 6.3306.Related: China stuns financial markets by devaluing yuan for second day running Continue reading...

After securing a heavily negotiated third bailout, Greece now faces stringent regulations regarding its financial futureNew details have emerged of the extraordinarily detailed new memorandum of understanding struck between Greece and its creditors in exchange for an €86bn bailout. The actions Athens have agreed to take are divided into four “pillars”:Related: Greece surprises with 0.8% economic growth in second quarterRelated: Greek bailout terms to give eurozone vast powers over policymaking Continue reading...

Number of people in work was 63,000 lower in second quarter and nearly 75% of employment growth was among non-UK nationalsEmployment opportunities in Britain’s stalling labour market are largely going to workers from the rest of the European Union, according to the latest official data showing a second monthly increase in the number of people out of work.Highlighting the impact of the enlargement of the EU since the turn of the millennium to include former Soviet bloc countries, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said almost three-quarters of the employment growth in the past year was accounted for by non-UK citizens.Related: Figures do not prove EU migrants are taking new UK jobs or driving down pay Continue reading...

The YouGov poll in July (Anti-austerity agenda a vote loser, poll reveals, 5 August) is surprising, not that 56% (of the 3,000 electorate sample) agreed that “we must live within our means, so cutting the deficit is the top priority”, but rather that 44% did not. This is the dogma that has been pumped out relentlessly by George Osborne, all three main political parties, the City and business establishments, and the rightwing 70% of the media for five years. It is extraordinary that such an orchestrated barrage, opposed not even by the Labour party, should command support from only slightly over half the population.And of course the 44% who disagreed or were not convinced by austerity were right. We should indeed live within our means, but the best way to do that is by growth, not by endless cuts. Despite five years of grinding austerity, the deficit is still an enormous £90bn, having been cut by only £24bn over the last three years. At that rate it will take another 11 years to pay off the deficit. Meanwhile, growth in the previous three quarters halved from 0.8% to a measly 0.4% and is now a very fragile and unbalanced 0.7%. We thus have the worst of all worlds – endless cuts, a debt mountain marooned at a huge, hardly reducing level, and deflating growth. If only the Labour party could speak out and tell the truth about this, the 44% doubters and disbelievers in austerity would soon become an irresistible majority. Continue reading...

A 29-page document setting out conditions of €85bn deal shows Greece faces more austerity and health, welfare, pensions and tax overhaul

Its slowdown is worrying, but the Chinese financial system isn’t as integrated with the world as America’sAccording to a modern version of Metternich’s saying, when the US sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold. Does the same now apply to the world’s second largest economy? If China implodes, could it drag down the global economy with it?China’s stock market has fallen by about a third since the middle of July, and this week it has devalued its currency, the RMB, not once but twice, sending shockwaves through financial markets. Despite the seeming panic, so far prices have only fallen back to the same levels as at the end of March. In any case, fewer than one in 10 Chinese households invest in stocks and shares, and on average the stock market accounts for less than 15% of household wealth. So the tens of millions of small Chinese investors who play the stock market have mostly been betting relatively small amounts and haven’t lost their shirts.Related: China stuns financial markets by devaluing yuan for second day runningWith its own newly formed middle class, China now has its own consumption base to serve Continue reading...

Ben Cavender, principal at China Market Research Group, analyses why China chose to devalue the yuan for a second day running. Stocks and currencies fell sharply across the region as investors expressed their concerns over a possible currency war and faltering economy. Cavender says the move is intended to strengthen exports and make Chinese good more competitiveRead: China stuns financial markets by devaluing yuan for second day running Continue reading...

Western central banks advised to resist raising interest rates and told to prepare to ward off deflationary slump in face of cheaper Chinese exports“Make no mistake, this is the start of something big, something ugly.” City economist Albert Edwards rarely minces his words, but his reaction to China’s devaluation, which sent shockwaves through global markets, underlined how powerfully Beijing’s move may be felt thousands of miles away.Edwards, of the bank Société Générale, argues that as well as creating a challenge for China’s Asian rivals, by making its exports more competitive, a cheaper yuan will send “a tidal wave of deflation” breaking over the world economy.Related: Why has China devalued its currency now and what impact will it have? Continue reading...

Parliament to reconvene for emergency session to ratify bailout text amid uncertainty over whether €85bn deal has backing of all EU member states

Stocks, currencies and commodities fall sharply across region as investors fear a stalling China economy and possible currency war despite Beijing’s assurances

The neoliberalist capitalist model has resulted in civil wars and economic disaster, and it’s only going to get worse. Unless, Paul Mason argues, we take advantage of the technological revolution we are living through and create a postcapitalist sharing society. If we let prices fall and delink work from wages, we can save the world from disaster

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Euclid Tsakalotos must know the projections he used to convince lenders of a prospective new deal are based on fantasy figures, say economistsEuclid Tsakalotos failed to raise a smile. As the Greek finance minister moved past waiting reporters, he turned and said that only two or three more issues remained on the table unresolved. In other words, an €86bn (£61bn) bailout package was within his grasp.It was a moment to punch the air in defiance. But he seemed resigned and tired. And well he might be. Not only must the rescue package receive the approval of the German government and its sceptical finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, he must know that many of the projections he has used to convince lenders they can be repaid are based on fantasy figures.Related: Euclid Tsakalotos: Greece's secret weapon in credit negotiationsRelated: Greek stock market surges as outline bailout deal reached with creditors Continue reading...

Prime minister Alexis Tsipras calls emergency sessions of parliament to vote on €86bn bailout measures, which will see further spending cuts imposed

Governor Mark Carney tells George Osborne that City traders and bankers will be asked for their views on effect of financial stability policiesMark Carney has told the government that the Bank of England is to examine whether policies intended to strengthen financial stability in the economy have held back economic growth.The Bank governor said Threadneedle Street would use the findings of an open forum in November – when City traders and bankers are expected to give their views on regulation – to “take stock of the reform agenda in financial markets”.Related: Super Thursday: Bank of England transparency or information overload? Continue reading...

People’s Bank of China described move as a ‘one-off’ but if Beijing seeks to boost imports through devaluation, it will be a painful processChina’s weakening of the yuan by 1.9% is an event that, in a year’s time, will be seen either as an irrelevance or a major turning point for the global economy. Everything depends on what happens next. If the tweak heralds the start of a proper devaluation to boost exports, the world economy will have to adjust to a new China. The process would be painful.

Ignore the hysteria. Our plans to tax the very rich and reshape the economy are sound common senseAs people wake up to the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn actually being able to win the Labour leadership, the reaction has become increasingly hysterical, especially from elements of the Labour establishment.The near panic is especially evident in its response to the strategy outlined by Corbyn’s team of economic advisers.We can tackle the deficit by halting tax cuts to the very rich and to corporationsRelated: Poll puts Jeremy Corbyn on course for leadership victory – should we trust it? Continue reading...

Athens hails €86bn bailout but Brussels is keen to stress the deal is a technical, not political, agreementThe Greek government announced it has struck an ambitious bailout deal with creditors aimed at securing around €86bn (£61bn) over three years in return for radical economic reforms to be pushed through parliament as early as this week.News of the agreement after a marathon 24-hour negotiating session at Athens’ Hilton hotel promptly triggered scepticism in Berlin, where the deputy finance minister said fundamental questions on Greece remained to be answered.Related: Greece close to clinching €86bn bailout deal – liveRelated: Greece urged to put 'quality before speed' in bailout negotiations Continue reading...

Supermarket chiefs meet NFU and other leading unions in bid to resolve protests and blockades over falling milk priceMorrisons is to launch a new milk brand that costs 10p extra, with the premium paid directly to British dairy farmers, in an attempt to end a dispute over the falling price of milk.The supermarket chain will sell four-pint bottles of “Morrisons Milk for Farmers” alongside its existing own-brand milk, which will remain at the same price and therefore 10p cheaper.Related: Farming unions call for 'seismic change' in way food is sold in Britain Continue reading...

Exclusive extract: Labor MPs Tim Watts and Clare O’Neil argue Australia must quickly adapt to the technological revolution to remain a fair societyAustralia’s national story is unique. A bushranger who spoke poetically about social justice is celebrated, at once a criminal and a national hero. Young Australians have distinguished themselves in war not just for their grit and bravery, but for the easy egalitarian ways between officer and soldier. Our democratic tradition was founded by a motley crew of gold diggers: women and men, local and immigrant, patrician and proletariat, united in protest under the Southern Cross. Through each of these foundation stories runs a common thread: equality.Related: The best argument against Australian inequality | Miriam Lyons and Ian McAuleyReturns on investment in the early years are usually four to nine dollars returned for every dollar invested.Related: Better equality in Australia is tainted by high jobless poverty rates Continue reading...

China has made the wrong choice as political and social reform takes second placeWhen China does well, the world feels nervous. How high will it rise, and how peacefully? When China falters, the world worries. How will we manage if this mighty economy slumps, or if political control of this immense society should slip gear? Of course every big country, whether it be India, Russia, Brazil or Nigeria, generates a few such anxieties, as does the European Union, but not on the same scale. Only America has the same degree of truly global importance as China. What, for example, links the recent poor performance of Jaguar Land Rover, the halving of Tata’s profits, the shrinking exports of Taiwanese phone firms, the rescue of the Ecuadorean economy after it defaulted on debts, and the fall in the price of gold last month? The answer is the state of the Chinese market, the policy choices of Chinese financial institutions, and the decisions of the Chinese government.Those decisions have an extraordinary ripple effect across the world. What is true in economics is also true in politics and military affairs. More than 100 Chinese ships, including nuclear submarines, last month churned through the waters of the South China Sea, firing off missiles and guns and generally behaving as if there was a war on. Planes zoomed overhead. The Chinese did this in an ocean area they had unilaterally designated as off limits to foreign ships, and they did it immediately before a meeting of foreign ministers of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Kuala Lumpur. Continue reading...

FTSE and Dow Jones climb as analysts predict Beijing will ease monetary policy to stimulate growth after figures show 8.3% fall in exportsStock markets around the world have been lifted by hopes that the Chinese government will allow its currency to devalue to boost growth after figures at the weekend showed a surprise slump in exports from the world’s second-largest economy.The FTSE turned a near 80-point loss into a 17-point gain on Monday as investors speculated that Beijing will move to offset further bad news from its manufacturing sector on Wednesday with a package of measures to help exports. In New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 223 points, or 1.3%, in early afternoon trading.Related: Chinese shares are falling, but the real fear is that the economy itself is slowing Continue reading...

Countries should seek to lower both the price paid to oil producers and raise the price paid by oil consumers. And now is the right timeWorld oil prices, which have been highly volatile during the last decade, have fallen more than 50% over the past year. The economic effects have been negative overall for oil-exporting countries, and positive for oil-importing countries. But what about effects that are not directly economic? If we care about environmental and other externalities, should we want oil prices to go up, because that will discourage oil consumption, or down because that will discourage oil production?The answer is that countries should seek to do both: lower the price paid to oil producers and raise the price paid by oil consumers, by cutting subsidies for oil and refined products or raising taxes on them. Many emerging-market countries have taken advantage of falling oil prices to implement such reforms. The United States, which is now surprisingly close to energy self-sufficiency, so that the macroeconomic effects roughly balance, should follow suit. Continue reading...

Areas such as hospitality and parts of retailing do not face the same competitive pressures as high-end manufacturing, the IPPR saysThe government must focus on unloved sectors such as hospitality and retail, if it is to tackle Britain’s lamentable productivity record, according to a new analysis by thinktank the Institute for Public Policy Research.Tony Dolphin, the IPPR’s chief economist, said that while the government tends to target support at the highly skilled workers in advanced manufacturing, it is the low-paid staff behind bars and checkouts whose performance may be critical to sustaining Britain’s recovery. Continue reading...